CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker: Arizona, August 2016

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Arizona
Sample
Conducted
Margin of Error
1095 Likely Voters

August 2-5, 2016
4.8%
1. Do you feel the economy in Arizona is generally doing ...?

Very well . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9%
Somewhat well . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45%
Somewhat badly . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36%
Very badly . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10%
2. Which best describes your view about the American way of life, as you know it:
Its changing for the better . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25%
Its changing for the worse . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61%
Its about the same as its always been . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14%
3. How likely is it that you will vote in the 2016 Presidential election in November?
Definitely will vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .95%
Probably will vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4%
Maybe will vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
Probably will not vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%
Definitely will not vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%
Dont know . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%
4. Compared to other recent elections, do you feel more or less motivated to vote this year
than in recent years?
More motivated . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72%
Less motivated . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9%
About the same as before . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16%
Havent been able to vote before . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3%
1100 registered voters total were interviewed. 1095 likely voters are included.

Arizona
5. If the 2016 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were Hillary
Clinton, the Democrat, and Donald Trump, the Republican, who would you vote for?
Voters selecting someone else in the initial question were given a choice of a selection of third party candidates
Hillary Clinton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .42%

Donald Trump . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44%
Gary Johnson . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5%
Jill Stein . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2%
Someone else . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5%
Probably wont vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%
6. Which best describes your support for [Candidate Choice] right now?
Asked of respondents voting for Clinton or Trump
Very strong Ive decided . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67%

Strong I probably wont change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23%
Somewhat strong I might still change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10%
Not too strong Ill probably change at some point . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%
7. Would you ever consider voting for Hillary Clinton in November?

Asked of respondents not voting for Clinton
Yes, I would . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3%
Maybe, theres a long way to go until November . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12%
No, I never would . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85%
8. Would you ever consider voting for Donald Trump in November?

Asked of respondents not voting for Trump
Yes, I would . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3%
Maybe, theres a long way to go until November . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17%
No, I never would . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80%

Arizona
9. Now that Clinton and Trump are the official nominees, how do you feel about the choice you
have this year?
Asked of respondents not voting for 3rd party/Someone else
Its nice to have two good options . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4%

Theres only one clear option for me . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .59%
I dont really like either, but Im picking one anyway . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32%
Im still considering a third party or staying home . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4%
10. If you had to choose, this election will really come down to which candidate:
Is most prepared for the job . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32%
Can shake up the political system . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16%
Can protect the United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20%
Understands people like me . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10%
Can make the economy work . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22%
11. How important are each of these issues to your vote?
Immigration
Terrorism
Health care
The budget deficit
Very important
66%
73%
71%
67%
Somewhat
important
29%
23%
25%
27%
Not too
important
5%
3%
4%
6%
12. How do you feel about the way Donald Trump responded to the Khan family, the parents
of the fallen U.S. solider, who spoke at the Democratic convention? Has Donald Trumps
response been:
Appropriate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26%
Inappropriate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53%
Havent heard enough about it to say . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20%

Arizona
13. Whether or not you agree with him, when you hear Donald Trump criticize other people,
do you usually think:
Trump often sticks up for himself, and I like that about him . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29%
Trump often seems insensitive, and I dont like that about him . . . . . . . . . . . 50%
Both . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14%
Neither . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7%
14. Whether or not you agree with her policies, do you feel Hillary Clintons record is mostly
one of...
Trying to do what she thinks is right for regular people . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37%
Trying to do things for herself and her political friends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63%
15. Do you think Hillary Clinton is describing things as better than they really are, worse than
they really are, or about as they really are, when she talks about:
The threat from ISIS

The state of the
economy
Crime and violence
in the US
Better
48%
Worse
16%
About as they
are
36%
52%
16%
32%
49%
15%
35%
16. Do you think Donald Trump is describing things as better than they really are, worse than
they really are, or about as they really are, when he talks about:
The threat from ISIS

The state of the
economy
Crime and violence
in the US
Better
13%
Worse
40%
About as they
are
47%
16%
40%
44%
12%
43%
45%

Arizona
17. Which of these do you feel describe or do not describe Hillary Clinton?
Is prepared to be
Commander in Chief
Would bring change
to Washington
Will look out for
people like you
Treats all people
fairly
Tells the truth
Describes
Does not describe
49%
51%
33%
67%
40%
60%
43%
29%
57%
71%
18. Which of these do you feel describe or do not describe Donald Trump?
Is prepared to be
Commander in Chief
Would bring change
to Washington
Will look out for
people like you
Treats all people
fairly
Tells the truth
Describes
Does not describe
39%
61%
70%
30%
46%
54%
39%
47%
61%
53%
19. Do you think a wall along the U.S. Mexico border is...
A good idea that can probably be completed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36%
A good idea that should be tried, even if it cant be completed . . . . . . . . . . . 17%
A bad idea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47%

Arizona
20. Which comes closest to your view about illegal immigrants who are living in the US?
They should be allowed to stay in the US and eventually apply for citizenship.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49%
They should be allowed to stay in the US legally, but not be allowed to apply for
citizenship. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17%
They should be required to leave the US. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34%
21. In general, how would you describe your own political viewpoint?
Very liberal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9%
Somewhat liberal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12%
Moderate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34%
Somewhat conservative . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .23%
Very conservative . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3%
22. Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a...?

Strong Democrat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21%
Not very strong Democrat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8%
Lean Democrat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10%
Independent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15%
Lean Republican . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12%
Not very strong Republican . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12%
Strong Republican . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
23. Is Hillary Clinton listening enough to the concerns of Bernie Sanders and his backers?
Asked of Democratic and Independent identifiers
Yes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40%
No . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35%
It doesnt matter whether she does or not . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25%

Arizona
24. How much do the endorsements and views of Republican party leaders matter in your
vote decision?
Asked of Republican identifiers
A lot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15%
Some . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29%
Not much . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30%
Not at all . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26%
25. How do you feel about the Tea Party movement?

Support . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .30%
Oppose . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32%
Neutral . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38%
26. Would you describe yourself as a born-again or evangelical Christian?

Yes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36%
No . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3%
27. Are you male or female?

Male . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51%
Female . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49%
28. In what year were you born? [Age recoded from birth year]
18-29 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23%
30-44 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30%
45-64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33%
65+ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14%

Arizona
29. What racial or ethnic group best describes you?
White . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74%
Black . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3%
Hispanic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18%
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5%
30. What is the highest level of education you have completed?

HS or less . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19%
Some college . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35%
College grad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30%
Post grad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15%

Arizona
1. State Economy
Do you feel the economy in Arizona is generally doing ...?
Gender
Very well
Somewhat well
Somewhat badly
Very badly
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
9%
45%
36%
10%
11%
48%
33%
8%
7%
41%
39%
12%
4%
50%
39%
8%
23%
39%
28%
10%
4%
46%
39%
10%
2%
43%
42%
13%
8%
44%
38%
10%
12%
44%
38%
7%
11%
54%
18%
17%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(556)
(539)
(247)
(325)
(372)
(152)
(806)
100%
(1,095)
(198)
(60)
Party ID
Very well
Somewhat well
Somewhat badly
Very badly
Totals
(Weighted N)
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Ideology
(30)
White Evangelical
Tea Party
Total
Democrat
Independent
Republican
Liberal
Moderate
Conservative
Yes
No
Yes
No
9%
45%
36%
10%
18%
51%
27%
4%
8%
41%
37%
13%
3%
43%
42%
12%
14%
54%
26%
5%
10%
45%
37%
8%
6%
39%
40%
14%
12%
38%
37%
13%
8%
48%
36%
9%
11%
30%
42%
18%
9%
51%
34%
6%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(1,095)
(317)
(412)
(352)
(229)
(406)
(460)
(360)
(735)
(334)
(761)

Arizona
2. American Way of Life

Which best describes your view about the American way of life, as you know it:
Gender
Its changing for the better
Its changing for the worse
Its about the same as its always been
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
25%
61%
14%
31%
55%
14%
18%
67%
14%
32%
50%
18%
38%
48%
14%
14%
74%
12%
10%
75%
16%
23%
65%
12%
30%
50%
20%
20%
59%
21%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(555)
(537)
(247)
(322)
(372)
(152)
(804)
100%
(1,092)
(198)
(60)
Party ID
Its changing for the better
Its changing for the worse
Its about the same as its always been
Totals
(Weighted N)
Race/Ethnicity
Ideology
(30)
White Evangelical
Tea Party
Total
Democrat
Independent
Republican
Liberal
Moderate
Conservative
Yes
No
Yes
No
25%
61%
14%
49%
33%
18%
19%
64%
17%
10%
83%
8%
49%
36%
15%
25%
53%
22%
12%
80%
8%
19%
72%
9%
27%
56%
17%
15%
82%
4%
29%
52%
19%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(1,092)
(317)
(412)
(349)
(229)
(406)
(457)
(357)
(735)
(331)
(760)

Arizona
3. Likelihood of Voting
How likely is it that you will vote in the 2016 Presidential election in November?
Gender
Definitely will vote
Probably will vote
Maybe will vote
Probably will not vote
Definitely will not vote
Dont know
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
95%
4%
1%
0%
0%
0%
96%
3%
0%
0%
0%
0%
94%
4%
1%
0%
0%
0%
93%
6%
1%
0%
0%
0%
94%
5%
1%
0%
0%
0%
97%
2%
0%
0%
0%
0%
99%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
96%
4%
0%
0%
0%
0%
93%
4%
2%
0%
0%
0%
95%
3%
2%
0%
0%
0%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(556)
(539)
(247)
(325)
(372)
(152)
(806)
100%
(1,095)
(198)
(60)
Party ID
Definitely will vote
Probably will vote
Maybe will vote
Probably will not vote
Definitely will not vote
Dont know
Totals
(Weighted N)
Race/Ethnicity
Ideology
(30)
White Evangelical
Tea Party
Total
Democrat
Independent
Republican
Liberal
Moderate
Conservative
Yes
No
Yes
No
95%
4%
1%
0%
0%
0%
95%
3%
1%
0%
0%
0%
96%
4%
0%
0%
0%
0%
95%
4%
1%
0%
0%
0%
96%
3%
0%
0%
0%
0%
93%
5%
1%
0%
0%
0%
97%
3%
0%
0%
0%
0%
95%
5%
0%
0%
0%
0%
96%
3%
1%
0%
0%
0%
97%
2%
0%
0%
0%
0%
95%
4%
1%
0%
0%
0%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(1,095)
(317)
(412)
(352)
(229)
(406)
(460)
(360)
(735)
(334)
(761)

Arizona
4. Motivated to Vote this Year

Compared to other recent elections, do you feel more or less motivated to vote this year than in recent years?
Gender
More motivated
Less motivated
About the same as before
Havent been able to vote before
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
72%
9%
16%
3%
71%
7%
17%
5%
72%
12%
15%
0%
62%
13%
14%
11%
76%
8%
16%
0%
73%
9%
18%
0%
74%
8%
18%
0%
69%
9%
19%
3%
80%
10%
8%
3%
77%
9%
14%
0%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(556)
(539)
(247)
(325)
(372)
(152)
(806)
100%
(1,095)
(198)
(60)
Party ID
More motivated
Less motivated
About the same as before
Havent been able to vote before
Totals
(Weighted N)
Race/Ethnicity
Ideology
(30)
White Evangelical
Tea Party
Total
Democrat
Independent
Republican
Liberal
Moderate
Conservative
Yes
No
Yes
No
72%
9%
16%
3%
84%
4%
10%
2%
67%
10%
19%
4%
68%
12%
18%
2%
74%
7%
13%
6%
68%
11%
21%
0%
74%
9%
14%
3%
68%
12%
17%
4%
73%
8%
16%
2%
82%
5%
11%
2%
67%
11%
19%
3%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(1,095)
(317)
(412)
(352)
(229)
(406)
(460)
(360)
(735)
(334)
(761)

Arizona
5. Presidential Vote 2016

If the 2016 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, and Donald Trump, the Republican, who would you
vote for?
Voters selecting someone else in the initial question were given a choice of a selection of third party candidates
Gender
Hillary Clinton
Donald Trump
Gary Johnson
Jill Stein
Someone else
Not sure
Probably wont vote
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
42%
44%
5%
2%
2%
5%
0%
41%
48%
6%
3%
0%
2%
0%
44%
39%
4%
0%
3%
11%
0%
50%
22%
11%
6%
1%
9%
0%
52%
35%
5%
0%
1%
5%
0%
33%
58%
2%
0%
2%
6%
0%
31%
62%
1%
0%
2%
4%
0%
34%
53%
6%
0%
2%
5%
0%
67%
13%
2%
8%
1%
9%
0%
50%
37%
3%
1%
0%
8%
1%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(555)
(539)
(247)
(325)
(372)
(151)
(806)
100%
(1,095)
(198)
(60)
Party ID
Hillary Clinton
Donald Trump
Gary Johnson
Jill Stein
Someone else
Not sure
Probably wont vote
Totals
(Weighted N)
Race/Ethnicity
Ideology
(30)
White Evangelical
Tea Party
Total
Democrat
Independent
Republican
Liberal
Moderate
Conservative
Yes
No
Yes
No
42%
44%
5%
2%
2%
5%
0%
89%
6%
1%
0%
1%
3%
0%
34%
44%
9%
4%
3%
6%
0%
11%
78%
3%
0%
1%
7%
0%
82%
2%
2%
8%
1%
5%
0%
50%
33%
7%
0%
1%
8%
0%
15%
73%
4%
0%
2%
5%
0%
28%
60%
4%
0%
2%
6%
0%
49%
35%
5%
2%
1%
6%
0%
20%
75%
2%
0%
1%
2%
0%
52%
30%
6%
2%
2%
8%
0%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(1,095)
(317)
(412)
(352)
(229)
(406)
(459)
(360)
(735)
(333)
(761)

Arizona
6. Support for Candidate

Which best describes your support for [Candidate Choice] right now?
Asked of respondents voting for Clinton or Trump
Gender
Very strong Ive decided
Strong I probably wont change
Somewhat strong I might still
change
Not too strong Ill probably change
at some point
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
67%
23%
66%
25%
68%
20%
55%
24%
68%
23%
71%
21%
69%
23%
68%
22%
60%
23%
10%
9%
10%
19%
8%
6%
8%
9%
16%
0%
1%
1%
2%
0%
2%
0%
1%
1%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(492)
(438)
(178)
(275)
(337)
(140)
(694)
100%
(930)
Party ID
Very strong Ive decided
Strong I probably wont change
Somewhat strong I might still
change
Not too strong Ill probably change
at some point
Totals
(Weighted N)
Race/Ethnicity
Ideology
(28)
(158)
White Evangelical
(50)
Tea Party
Total
Democrat
Independent
Republican
Liberal
Moderate
Conservative
Yes
No
Yes
No
67%
23%
70%
20%
62%
26%
69%
22%
72%
23%
58%
27%
72%
19%
66%
24%
67%
22%
77%
15%
62%
26%
10%
10%
10%
8%
4%
13%
9%
9%
10%
8%
10%
0%
0%
2%
1%
1%
2%
0%
1%
1%
0%
2%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(930)
(302)
(320)
(302)
(193)
(331)
(405)
(311)
(619)
(310)
(619)

Arizona
7. Consider Clinton
Would you ever consider voting for Hillary Clinton in November?
Asked of respondents not voting for Clinton
Gender
Yes, I would
Maybe, theres a long way to go until
November
No, I never would
Totals
(Weighted N)
Total
Male
3%
3%
12%
85%
Age group
Female
30-44
45-64
3%
2%
9%
2%
0%
4%
1%
8%
89%
17%
80%
25%
73%
13%
78%
7%
92%
9%
91%
9%
87%
28%
70%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(330)
(304)
(123)
(155)
(251)
(105)
(535)
100%
(634)
Party ID
Total
Yes, I would
November
No, I never would
Totals
(Weighted N)
Race/Ethnicity
18-29
Democrat
Independent
65+
White
Ideology
Republican
Liberal
Moderate
Black
Hispanic
(3)
Conservative
Yes
(66)
White Evangelical
No
Other
(30)
Tea Party
Yes
No
3%
2%
3%
3%
2%
3%
4%
3%
4%
12%
85%
15%
83%
6%
91%
17%
80%
7%
90%
11%
86%
13%
84%
2%
95%
20%
77%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(314)
100%
(273)
(202)
(391)
(260)
(374)
(268)
(366)
100%
(634)
(35)
(41)

Arizona
8. Consider Trump
Would you ever consider voting for Donald Trump in November?
Asked of respondents not voting for Trump
Gender
Yes, I would
November
No, I never would
Totals
(Weighted N)
Total
Male
3%
3%
17%
80%
Age group
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
3%
1%
6%
2%
0%
4%
0%
15%
82%
19%
78%
14%
84%
23%
71%
14%
84%
12%
88%
20%
76%
14%
86%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(286)
(331)
(193)
(210)
(156)
(58)
(378)
100%
(617)
Party ID
Total
Yes, I would
November
No, I never would
Totals
(Weighted N)
Race/Ethnicity
Democrat
Independent
65+
White
Ideology
Republican
Liberal
Moderate
Black
Hispanic
(30)
Conservative
Yes
(172)
White Evangelical
No
Other
(38)
Tea Party
Yes
No
3%
4%
0%
4%
1%
0%
11%
7%
2%
13%
1%
17%
80%
7%
88%
19%
81%
46%
51%
7%
92%
22%
78%
26%
63%
31%
62%
13%
85%
32%
55%
15%
84%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(617)
(298)
(231)
(78)
(224)
(271)
(122)
(143)
(475)
(83)
(534)

Arizona
9. Candidate Choices this Year

Now that Clinton and Trump are the official nominees, how do you feel about the choice you have this year?
Asked of respondents not voting for 3rd party/Someone else
Gender
Its nice to have two good options
Theres only one clear option for me
I dont really like either, but Im picking
one anyway
Im still considering a third party or
staying home
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
4%
59%
6%
63%
3%
56%
4%
54%
10%
63%
0%
59%
2%
62%
4%
59%
4%
63%
5%
53%
32%
29%
36%
36%
23%
38%
35%
33%
29%
39%
4%
2%
5%
6%
4%
3%
1%
4%
4%
4%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(502)
(483)
(194)
(294)
(352)
(146)
(731)
100%
(986)
(172)
(54)
Party ID
Its nice to have two good options
Theres only one clear option for me
I dont really like either, but Im picking
one anyway
Im still considering a third party or
staying home
Totals
(Weighted N)
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Ideology
(29)
White Evangelical
Tea Party
Total
Democrat
Independent
Republican
Liberal
Moderate
Conservative
Yes
No
Yes
No
4%
59%
7%
63%
4%
57%
3%
60%
2%
66%
7%
56%
3%
60%
8%
52%
3%
63%
7%
65%
3%
57%
32%
28%
35%
34%
30%
33%
33%
36%
31%
27%
35%
4%
2%
5%
3%
2%
3%
5%
5%
3%
1%
5%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(986)
(312)
(335)
(329)
(204)
(354)
(428)
(330)
(656)
(316)
(669)

Arizona
10. Deciding Factor in Election

If you had to choose, this election will really come down to which candidate:
Gender
Is most prepared for the job
Can shake up the political system
Can protect the United States
Understands people like me
Can make the economy work
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
32%
16%
20%
10%
22%
33%
20%
16%
9%
22%
31%
12%
25%
10%
21%
40%
7%
24%
14%
14%
32%
14%
21%
11%
22%
27%
21%
17%
7%
28%
29%
24%
20%
7%
20%
29%
18%
23%
8%
22%
41%
9%
11%
17%
21%
35%
12%
26%
12%
16%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(555)
(537)
(247)
(324)
(370)
(150)
(803)
100%
(1,091)
(198)
(60)
Party ID
Is most prepared for the job
Can shake up the political system
Can protect the United States
Understands people like me
Can make the economy work
Totals
(Weighted N)
Race/Ethnicity
Ideology
(30)
White Evangelical
Tea Party
Total
Democrat
Independent
Republican
Liberal
Moderate
Conservative
Yes
No
Yes
No
32%
16%
20%
10%
22%
51%
3%
14%
16%
15%
32%
18%
17%
10%
22%
14%
26%
29%
4%
27%
63%
6%
4%
15%
12%
35%
11%
19%
11%
25%
13%
26%
30%
7%
25%
18%
19%
28%
11%
23%
39%
14%
16%
9%
21%
12%
25%
26%
7%
29%
40%
12%
18%
11%
19%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(1,091)
(316)
(412)
(351)
(228)
(405)
(458)
(358)
(733)
(333)
(758)
10

Arizona
11. Importance of Issues to Vote Immigration

How important are each of these issues to your vote?
Gender
Very important
Somewhat important
Not too important
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
66%
29%
5%
61%
34%
5%
71%
23%
6%
65%
33%
1%
63%
29%
7%
66%
27%
7%
72%
24%
4%
65%
30%
5%
74%
20%
6%
65%
31%
5%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(553)
(539)
(247)
(325)
(369)
(152)
(804)
100%
(1,093)
(198)
(60)
Party ID
Very important
Somewhat important
Not too important
Totals
(Weighted N)
Race/Ethnicity
Ideology
(30)
White Evangelical
Tea Party
Total
Democrat
Independent
Republican
Liberal
Moderate
Conservative
Yes
No
Yes
No
66%
29%
5%
56%
34%
10%
65%
30%
5%
76%
22%
1%
51%
39%
11%
55%
38%
7%
83%
16%
1%
74%
24%
2%
62%
31%
7%
82%
17%
1%
59%
34%
7%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(1,093)
(317)
(412)
(350)
(229)
(406)
(457)
(358)
(735)
(334)
(758)
11

Arizona
12. Importance of Issues to Vote Terrorism

Gender
Very important
Somewhat important
Not too important
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
73%
23%
3%
68%
26%
5%
79%
20%
1%
72%
24%
4%
67%
28%
5%
78%
20%
2%
80%
18%
3%
73%
23%
3%
73%
23%
5%
74%
25%
2%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(555)
(539)
(247)
(324)
(372)
(151)
(806)
100%
(1,094)
(197)
(60)
Party ID
Very important
Somewhat important
Not too important
Totals
(Weighted N)
Race/Ethnicity
Ideology
(30)
White Evangelical
Tea Party
Total
Democrat
Independent
Republican
Liberal
Moderate
Conservative
Yes
No
Yes
No
73%
23%
3%
61%
35%
4%
72%
23%
5%
87%
13%
0%
51%
37%
12%
68%
30%
2%
90%
10%
0%
84%
15%
1%
68%
27%
4%
84%
14%
1%
69%
27%
4%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(1,094)
(316)
(412)
(352)
(228)
(406)
(459)
(360)
(734)
(333)
(760)
12

Arizona
13. Importance of Issues to Vote Health care

Gender
Very important
Somewhat important
Not too important
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
71%
25%
4%
65%
29%
5%
77%
21%
2%
70%
26%
4%
74%
22%
4%
68%
28%
4%
72%
25%
3%
68%
28%
5%
85%
15%
1%
64%
31%
5%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(553)
(536)
(247)
(324)
(372)
(147)
(805)
100%
(1,089)
(196)
(58)
Party ID
Very important
Somewhat important
Not too important
Totals
(Weighted N)
Race/Ethnicity
Ideology
(30)
White Evangelical
Tea Party
Total
Democrat
Independent
Republican
Liberal
Moderate
Conservative
Yes
No
Yes
No
71%
25%
4%
82%
14%
4%
68%
29%
4%
66%
30%
4%
90%
9%
1%
66%
29%
5%
66%
29%
5%
68%
27%
6%
73%
24%
3%
68%
25%
7%
72%
25%
3%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(1,089)
(315)
(410)
(351)
(229)
(404)
(456)
(360)
(730)
(329)
(760)
13

Arizona
14. Importance of Issues to Vote The budget deficit

Gender
Very important
Somewhat important
Not too important
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
67%
27%
6%
63%
28%
9%
70%
26%
4%
66%
28%
6%
61%
29%
10%
71%
23%
6%
69%
27%
4%
69%
24%
8%
63%
32%
5%
58%
38%
5%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(555)
(539)
(247)
(325)
(372)
(151)
(805)
100%
(1,094)
(198)
(60)
Party ID
Very important
Somewhat important
Not too important
Totals
(Weighted N)
Race/Ethnicity
Ideology
(30)
White Evangelical
Tea Party
Total
Democrat
Independent
Republican
Liberal
Moderate
Conservative
Yes
No
Yes
No
67%
27%
6%
49%
38%
12%
68%
25%
7%
80%
18%
1%
51%
33%
16%
59%
33%
8%
81%
18%
1%
75%
19%
5%
62%
30%
7%
88%
9%
3%
57%
34%
8%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(1,094)
(317)
(412)
(351)
(229)
(406)
(459)
(359)
(735)
(333)
(761)
14

Arizona
15. Trumps Response to Khan Family

How do you feel about the way Donald Trump responded to the Khan family, the parents of the fallen U.S. solider, who spoke at the Democratic convention? Has
Donald Trumps response been:
Gender
Appropriate
Inappropriate
Havent heard enough about it to say
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
26%
53%
20%
33%
53%
14%
20%
54%
26%
15%
62%
23%
29%
55%
16%
32%
46%
22%
26%
53%
20%
31%
48%
21%
13%
71%
16%
26%
47%
27%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(555)
(538)
(247)
(325)
(371)
(150)
(805)
100%
(1,093)
(198)
(60)
Party ID
Appropriate
Inappropriate
Havent heard enough about it to say
Totals
(Weighted N)
Race/Ethnicity
Ideology
(30)
White Evangelical
Tea Party
Total
Democrat
Independent
Republican
Liberal
Moderate
Conservative
Yes
No
Yes
No
26%
53%
20%
9%
80%
12%
25%
55%
20%
45%
29%
27%
2%
90%
7%
23%
59%
18%
42%
30%
28%
32%
39%
29%
24%
60%
16%
57%
29%
14%
13%
64%
23%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(1,093)
(317)
(411)
(352)
(229)
(405)
(460)
(360)
(734)
(334)
(759)
15

Arizona
16. Trumps Criticism of Others

Whether or not you agree with him, when you hear Donald Trump criticize other people, do you usually think:
Gender
Trump often sticks up for himself, and
I like that about him
Trump often seems insensitive, and I
dont like that about him
Both
Neither
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
29%
33%
25%
19%
30%
33%
33%
34%
12%
27%
50%
14%
7%
43%
16%
8%
57%
12%
6%
62%
11%
9%
54%
14%
3%
42%
17%
8%
43%
14%
10%
42%
17%
7%
77%
4%
7%
48%
19%
7%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(556)
(537)
(244)
(325)
(372)
(152)
(806)
100%
(1,092)
(198)
(58)
Party ID
Total
Trump often sticks up for himself, and
I like that about him
Trump often seems insensitive, and I
dont like that about him
Both
Neither
Totals
(Weighted N)
Race/Ethnicity
Democrat
Ideology
Independent
Republican
Liberal
(30)
White Evangelical
Tea Party
Moderate
Conservative
Yes
No
Yes
No
29%
8%
29%
48%
2%
25%
46%
36%
26%
55%
18%
50%
14%
7%
81%
5%
6%
43%
18%
10%
30%
17%
4%
79%
8%
11%
57%
14%
5%
29%
18%
7%
33%
23%
8%
58%
10%
6%
25%
13%
7%
61%
15%
7%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(1,092)
(314)
(412)
(352)
(229)
(406)
(457)
(360)
(733)
(334)
(758)
16

Arizona
17. Clintons Record

Whether or not you agree with her policies, do you feel Hillary Clintons record is mostly one of...
Gender
Trying to do what she thinks is right
for regular people
Trying to do things for herself and her
political friends
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
37%
34%
40%
42%
45%
30%
27%
31%
59%
26%
63%
66%
60%
58%
55%
70%
73%
69%
41%
74%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(556)
(539)
(247)
(325)
(372)
(152)
(806)
100%
(1,095)
(198)
(60)
Party ID
Trying to do what she thinks is right
for regular people
Trying to do things for herself and her
political friends
Totals
(Weighted N)
Race/Ethnicity
Ideology
(30)
White Evangelical
Tea Party
Total
Democrat
Independent
Republican
Liberal
Moderate
Conservative
Yes
No
Yes
No
37%
76%
28%
13%
70%
46%
12%
24%
43%
19%
45%
63%
24%
72%
87%
30%
54%
88%
76%
57%
81%
55%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(1,095)
(317)
(412)
(352)
(229)
(406)
(460)
(360)
(735)
(334)
(760)
17

Arizona
18. Clinton Too Optimistic The threat from ISIS

Do you think Hillary Clinton is describing things as better than they really are, worse than they really are, or about as they really are, when she talks about:
Gender
Better
Worse
About as they are
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
48%
16%
36%
48%
17%
35%
48%
14%
38%
30%
16%
54%
47%
20%
32%
56%
13%
31%
57%
11%
32%
52%
16%
32%
37%
14%
49%
33%
19%
48%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(539)
(530)
(235)
(319)
(369)
(145)
(784)
100%
(1,069)
(198)
(57)
Party ID
Better
Worse
About as they are
Totals
(Weighted N)
Race/Ethnicity
Ideology
(30)
White Evangelical
Tea Party
Total
Democrat
Independent
Republican
Liberal
Moderate
Conservative
Yes
No
Yes
No
48%
16%
36%
28%
14%
58%
47%
16%
38%
68%
18%
14%
19%
14%
67%
37%
16%
47%
71%
16%
12%
63%
16%
21%
40%
15%
44%
68%
16%
16%
39%
15%
45%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(1,069)
(315)
(406)
(335)
(227)
(386)
(456)
(355)
(713)
(322)
(746)
18

Arizona
19. Clinton Too Optimistic The state of the economy

Gender
Better
Worse
About as they are
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
52%
16%
32%
52%
16%
32%
51%
17%
32%
42%
22%
36%
49%
16%
35%
58%
15%
27%
58%
11%
31%
54%
16%
29%
46%
17%
37%
40%
19%
41%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(541)
(532)
(236)
(319)
(370)
(148)
(789)
100%
(1,073)
(198)
(57)
Party ID
Better
Worse
About as they are
Totals
(Weighted N)
Race/Ethnicity
Ideology
(30)
White Evangelical
Tea Party
Total
Democrat
Independent
Republican
Liberal
Moderate
Conservative
Yes
No
Yes
No
52%
16%
32%
38%
8%
54%
51%
17%
31%
65%
23%
12%
35%
8%
56%
39%
17%
44%
70%
20%
10%
66%
16%
18%
44%
17%
39%
74%
16%
10%
42%
16%
41%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(1,073)
(316)
(409)
(335)
(229)
(390)
(455)
(356)
(717)
(322)
(750)
19

Arizona
20. Clinton Too Optimistic Crime and violence in the US

Gender
Better
Worse
About as they are
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
49%
15%
35%
51%
15%
33%
47%
16%
37%
43%
14%
42%
49%
16%
35%
53%
16%
31%
52%
15%
33%
52%
16%
32%
45%
13%
42%
36%
18%
46%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(541)
(531)
(236)
(319)
(370)
(147)
(787)
100%
(1,072)
(198)
(57)
Party ID
Better
Worse
About as they are
Totals
(Weighted N)
Race/Ethnicity
Ideology
(30)
White Evangelical
Tea Party
Total
Democrat
Independent
Republican
Liberal
Moderate
Conservative
Yes
No
Yes
No
49%
15%
35%
34%
7%
59%
49%
18%
33%
65%
20%
15%
30%
10%
60%
37%
17%
46%
70%
17%
13%
65%
13%
22%
42%
17%
41%
69%
16%
15%
41%
15%
44%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(1,072)
(317)
(407)
(335)
(229)
(388)
(456)
(356)
(716)
(322)
(749)
20

Arizona
21. Trump Too Optimistic The threat from ISIS

Do you think Donald Trump is describing things as better than they really are, worse than they really are, or about as they really are, when he talks about:
Gender
Better
Worse
About as they are
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
13%
40%
47%
14%
42%
43%
12%
37%
52%
17%
54%
29%
20%
41%
39%
6%
31%
63%
7%
32%
60%
12%
32%
55%
16%
61%
23%
15%
47%
38%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(544)
(532)
(244)
(313)
(369)
(149)
(801)
100%
(1,076)
(190)
(55)
Party ID
Better
Worse
About as they are
Totals
(Weighted N)
Race/Ethnicity
Ideology
(30)
White Evangelical
Tea Party
Total
Democrat
Independent
Republican
Liberal
Moderate
Conservative
Yes
No
Yes
No
13%
40%
47%
12%
69%
19%
11%
43%
46%
16%
10%
74%
7%
77%
16%
18%
46%
36%
11%
16%
73%
10%
18%
73%
14%
50%
35%
15%
14%
71%
12%
51%
37%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(1,076)
(308)
(403)
(351)
(225)
(393)
(458)
(358)
(718)
(328)
(747)
21

Arizona
22. Trump Too Optimistic The state of the economy

Gender
Better
Worse
About as they are
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
16%
40%
44%
18%
43%
39%
13%
37%
50%
20%
50%
30%
24%
44%
32%
10%
31%
59%
5%
40%
56%
13%
36%
52%
30%
49%
21%
16%
50%
33%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(548)
(534)
(244)
(319)
(369)
(150)
(801)
100%
(1,082)
(195)
(56)
Party ID
Better
Worse
About as they are
Totals
(Weighted N)
Race/Ethnicity
Ideology
(30)
White Evangelical
Tea Party
Total
Democrat
Independent
Republican
Liberal
Moderate
Conservative
Yes
No
Yes
No
16%
40%
44%
20%
64%
16%
12%
43%
45%
16%
16%
68%
11%
75%
14%
23%
45%
33%
12%
19%
69%
14%
22%
65%
17%
49%
34%
21%
13%
66%
14%
52%
34%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(1,082)
(314)
(405)
(349)
(225)
(400)
(457)
(358)
(724)
(332)
(749)
22

Arizona
23. Trump Too Optimistic Crime and violence in the US

Gender
Better
Worse
About as they are
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
12%
43%
45%
12%
45%
42%
11%
41%
48%
18%
54%
28%
16%
46%
38%
7%
36%
58%
5%
38%
57%
10%
38%
53%
18%
59%
22%
19%
49%
32%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(550)
(532)
(244)
(319)
(370)
(150)
(801)
100%
(1,082)
(195)
(55)
Party ID
Better
Worse
About as they are
Totals
(Weighted N)
Race/Ethnicity
Ideology
(30)
White Evangelical
Tea Party
Total
Democrat
Independent
Republican
Liberal
Moderate
Conservative
Yes
No
Yes
No
12%
43%
45%
15%
71%
14%
9%
46%
45%
13%
14%
73%
9%
77%
14%
17%
49%
34%
9%
21%
70%
8%
24%
68%
13%
53%
34%
15%
16%
69%
11%
55%
34%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(1,082)
(314)
(404)
(351)
(225)
(399)
(458)
(359)
(723)
(333)
(749)
23

Arizona
24. Clinton Traits Is prepared to be Commander in Chief

Which of these do you feel describe or do not describe Hillary Clinton?
Gender
Describes
Does not describe
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
49%
51%
52%
48%
47%
53%
54%
46%
63%
37%
39%
61%
39%
61%
42%
58%
67%
33%
61%
39%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(553)
(532)
(243)
(325)
(368)
(149)
(798)
100%
(1,085)
(196)
(60)
Party ID
Describes
Does not describe
Totals
(Weighted N)
Race/Ethnicity
Ideology
(30)
White Evangelical
Tea Party
Total
Democrat
Independent
Republican
Liberal
Moderate
Conservative
Yes
No
Yes
No
49%
51%
86%
14%
44%
56%
22%
78%
89%
11%
58%
42%
22%
78%
34%
66%
57%
43%
21%
79%
61%
39%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(1,085)
(314)
(409)
(349)
(229)
(401)
(456)
(356)
(729)
(327)
(757)
24

Arizona
25. Clinton Traits Would bring change to Washington

Gender
Describes
Does not describe
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
33%
67%
26%
74%
40%
60%
47%
53%
42%
58%
20%
80%
23%
77%
28%
72%
48%
52%
33%
67%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(549)
(532)
(243)
(319)
(369)
(149)
(797)
100%
(1,080)
(193)
(60)
Party ID
Describes
Does not describe
Totals
(Weighted N)
Race/Ethnicity
Ideology
(30)
White Evangelical
Tea Party
Total
Democrat
Independent
Republican
Liberal
Moderate
Conservative
Yes
No
Yes
No
33%
67%
63%
37%
22%
78%
20%
80%
48%
52%
36%
64%
22%
78%
27%
73%
36%
64%
25%
75%
37%
63%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(1,080)
(308)
(410)
(349)
(228)
(401)
(452)
(356)
(725)
(329)
(751)
25

Arizona
26. Clinton Traits Will look out for people like you
Gender
Describes
Does not describe
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
40%
60%
40%
60%
41%
59%
45%
55%
55%
45%
28%
72%
31%
69%
34%
66%
60%
40%
38%
62%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(548)
(531)
(244)
(320)
(369)
(146)
(795)
100%
(1,079)
(193)
(60)
Party ID
Describes
Does not describe
Totals
(Weighted N)
Race/Ethnicity
Ideology
(30)
White Evangelical
Tea Party
Total
Democrat
Independent
Republican
Liberal
Moderate
Conservative
Yes
No
Yes
No
40%
60%
82%
18%
31%
69%
16%
84%
67%
33%
50%
50%
17%
83%
27%
73%
47%
53%
22%
78%
48%
52%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(1,079)
(309)
(409)
(348)
(228)
(401)
(450)
(354)
(725)
(328)
(750)
26

Arizona
27. Clinton Traits Treats all people fairly

Gender
Describes
Does not describe
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
43%
57%
43%
57%
43%
57%
48%
52%
56%
44%
32%
68%
32%
68%
36%
64%
64%
36%
49%
51%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(554)
(534)
(244)
(325)
(369)
(150)
(799)
100%
(1,088)
(198)
(60)
Party ID
Describes
Does not describe
Totals
(Weighted N)
Race/Ethnicity
Ideology
(30)
White Evangelical
Tea Party
Total
Democrat
Independent
Republican
Liberal
Moderate
Conservative
Yes
No
Yes
No
43%
57%
84%
16%
33%
67%
19%
81%
74%
26%
53%
47%
19%
81%
27%
73%
51%
49%
22%
78%
52%
48%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(1,088)
(313)
(410)
(351)
(228)
(401)
(459)
(357)
(730)
(329)
(758)
27

Arizona
28. Clinton Traits Tells the truth

Gender
Describes
Does not describe
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
29%
71%
30%
70%
27%
73%
35%
65%
39%
61%
19%
81%
21%
79%
23%
77%
45%
55%
30%
70%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(554)
(531)
(244)
(323)
(368)
(150)
(798)
100%
(1,084)
(197)
(59)
Party ID
Describes
Does not describe
Totals
(Weighted N)
Race/Ethnicity
Ideology
(30)
White Evangelical
Tea Party
Total
Democrat
Independent
Republican
Liberal
Moderate
Conservative
Yes
No
Yes
No
29%
71%
64%
36%
19%
81%
10%
90%
54%
46%
33%
67%
12%
88%
17%
83%
35%
65%
17%
83%
34%
66%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(1,084)
(312)
(410)
(349)
(228)
(398)
(458)
(357)
(728)
(327)
(756)
28

Arizona
29. Trump Traits Is prepared to be Commander in Chief

Which of these do you feel describe or do not describe Donald Trump?
Gender
Describes
Does not describe
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
39%
61%
44%
56%
34%
66%
25%
75%
34%
66%
49%
51%
50%
50%
46%
54%
16%
84%
37%
63%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(549)
(531)
(247)
(320)
(366)
(146)
(797)
100%
(1,080)
(196)
(57)
Party ID
Describes
Does not describe
Totals
(Weighted N)
Race/Ethnicity
Ideology
(30)
White Evangelical
Tea Party
Total
Democrat
Independent
Republican
Liberal
Moderate
Conservative
Yes
No
Yes
No
39%
61%
10%
90%
39%
61%
66%
34%
3%
97%
32%
68%
64%
36%
53%
47%
33%
67%
69%
31%
26%
74%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(1,080)
(316)
(408)
(342)
(228)
(402)
(450)
(355)
(725)
(328)
(751)
29

Arizona
30. Trump Traits Would bring change to Washington

Gender
Describes
Does not describe
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
70%
30%
74%
26%
66%
34%
64%
36%
62%
38%
79%
21%
75%
25%
77%
23%
50%
50%
66%
34%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(547)
(534)
(247)
(315)
(369)
(151)
(801)
100%
(1,082)
(193)
(57)
Party ID
Describes
Does not describe
Totals
(Weighted N)
Race/Ethnicity
Ideology
(30)
White Evangelical
Tea Party
Total
Democrat
Independent
Republican
Liberal
Moderate
Conservative
Yes
No
Yes
No
70%
30%
43%
57%
72%
28%
91%
9%
45%
55%
63%
37%
89%
11%
79%
21%
66%
34%
86%
14%
63%
37%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(1,082)
(311)
(412)
(345)
(228)
(403)
(451)
(358)
(724)
(332)
(749)
30

Arizona
31. Trump Traits Will look out for people like you
Gender
Describes
Does not describe
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
46%
54%
52%
48%
39%
61%
27%
73%
43%
57%
57%
43%
56%
44%
55%
45%
17%
83%
40%
60%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(546)
(531)
(247)
(315)
(368)
(146)
(796)
100%
(1,076)
(193)
(57)
Party ID
Describes
Does not describe
Totals
(Weighted N)
Race/Ethnicity
Ideology
(30)
White Evangelical
Tea Party
Total
Democrat
Independent
Republican
Liberal
Moderate
Conservative
Yes
No
Yes
No
46%
54%
11%
89%
47%
53%
78%
22%
3%
97%
37%
63%
76%
24%
63%
37%
38%
62%
79%
21%
31%
69%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(1,076)
(311)
(411)
(342)
(227)
(403)
(446)
(353)
(723)
(330)
(746)
31

Arizona
32. Trump Traits Treats all people fairly

Gender
Describes
Does not describe
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
39%
61%
45%
55%
32%
68%
21%
79%
36%
64%
47%
53%
51%
49%
45%
55%
17%
83%
39%
61%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(547)
(532)
(247)
(315)
(368)
(149)
(799)
100%
(1,079)
(193)
(57)
Party ID
Describes
Does not describe
Totals
(Weighted N)
Race/Ethnicity
Ideology
(30)
White Evangelical
Tea Party
Total
Democrat
Independent
Republican
Liberal
Moderate
Conservative
Yes
No
Yes
No
39%
61%
13%
87%
38%
62%
64%
36%
2%
98%
33%
67%
63%
37%
54%
46%
31%
69%
71%
29%
24%
76%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(1,079)
(311)
(411)
(344)
(228)
(403)
(449)
(356)
(724)
(330)
(748)
32

Arizona
33. Trump Traits Tells the truth

Gender
Describes
Does not describe
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
47%
53%
51%
49%
44%
56%
34%
66%
45%
55%
55%
45%
54%
46%
55%
45%
22%
78%
45%
55%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(547)
(533)
(247)
(315)
(368)
(149)
(799)
100%
(1,079)
(193)
(57)
Party ID
Describes
Does not describe
Totals
(Weighted N)
Race/Ethnicity
Ideology
(30)
White Evangelical
Tea Party
Total
Democrat
Independent
Republican
Liberal
Moderate
Conservative
Yes
No
Yes
No
47%
53%
11%
89%
48%
52%
79%
21%
9%
91%
40%
60%
74%
26%
62%
38%
40%
60%
78%
22%
34%
66%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(1,079)
(311)
(411)
(344)
(228)
(403)
(449)
(356)
(723)
(330)
(749)
33

Arizona
34. U.S. Mexico Border Wall

Do you think a wall along the U.S. Mexico border is...
Gender
A good idea that can probably be
completed
A good idea that should be tried, even
if it cant be completed
A bad idea
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
36%
37%
35%
18%
33%
47%
43%
42%
15%
43%
17%
47%
16%
47%
19%
46%
11%
71%
16%
50%
21%
32%
21%
36%
20%
38%
9%
76%
15%
41%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(555)
(539)
(247)
(324)
(372)
(152)
(806)
100%
(1,094)
(198)
(60)
Party ID
A good idea that can probably be
completed
A good idea that should be tried, even
if it cant be completed
A bad idea
Totals
(Weighted N)
Race/Ethnicity
Ideology
Total
Democrat
Independent
Republican
36%
12%
35%
59%
17%
47%
11%
77%
17%
48%
100%
100%
(1,094)
(317)
Liberal
(30)
White Evangelical
Tea Party
Moderate
Conservative
Yes
No
Yes
No
4%
28%
59%
49%
30%
68%
22%
23%
18%
6%
90%
17%
55%
23%
18%
23%
28%
15%
56%
14%
17%
19%
60%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(412)
(352)
(229)
(405)
(460)
(359)
(735)
(334)
(760)
34

Arizona
35. Immigration
Which comes closest to your view about illegal immigrants who are living in the US?
Gender
They should be allowed to stay in the
US and eventually apply for
citizenship.
US legally, but not be allowed to apply
for citizenship.
They should be required to leave the
US.
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
49%
46%
51%
65%
54%
37%
39%
42%
69%
48%
17%
21%
12%
13%
19%
16%
17%
18%
17%
8%
34%
33%
37%
22%
27%
46%
44%
40%
15%
44%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(547)
(536)
(247)
(319)
(370)
(148)
(795)
100%
(1,084)
(198)
(60)
Party ID
US and eventually apply for
citizenship.
US legally, but not be allowed to apply
for citizenship.
They should be required to leave the
US.
Totals
(Weighted N)
Race/Ethnicity
Ideology
(30)
White Evangelical
Tea Party
Total
Democrat
Independent
Republican
Liberal
Moderate
Conservative
Yes
No
Yes
No
49%
77%
46%
25%
84%
55%
25%
32%
56%
21%
60%
17%
12%
18%
19%
8%
19%
19%
21%
15%
23%
14%
34%
11%
36%
56%
8%
27%
56%
47%
29%
56%
26%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(1,084)
(312)
(412)
(347)
(228)
(405)
(451)
(350)
(734)
(326)
(757)
35

Arizona
36. Clinton Listening to Sanderss Supporters

Is Hillary Clinton listening enough to the concerns of Bernie Sanders and his backers?
Asked of Democratic and Independent identifiers
Gender
Yes
No
It doesnt matter whether she does or
not
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
40%
35%
36%
39%
45%
30%
43%
41%
39%
34%
40%
31%
42%
29%
34%
39%
48%
30%
25%
25%
25%
16%
27%
29%
30%
27%
21%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(341)
(325)
(173)
(222)
(197)
(74)
(424)
100%
(667)
Party ID
Yes
No
It doesnt matter whether she does or
not
Totals
(Weighted N)
Race/Ethnicity
Ideology
(29)
(167)
White Evangelical
(46)
Tea Party
Total
Democrat
Independent
Republican
Liberal
Moderate
Conservative
Yes
No
Yes
No
40%
35%
60%
28%
22%
41%
55%
35%
39%
33%
23%
37%
28%
37%
44%
34%
31%
31%
43%
35%
25%
12%
37%
10%
28%
40%
35%
22%
38%
22%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(317)
(350)
100%
(667)
(213)
(300)
(154)
(153)
(514)
(138)
(528)
(0)
36

Arizona
37. Republican Leader Endorsements

How much do the endorsements and views of Republican party leaders matter in your vote decision?
Asked of Republican identifiers
Gender
A lot
Some
Not much
Not at all
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
15%
29%
30%
26%
18%
26%
28%
28%
12%
31%
32%
25%
15%
31%
18%
36%
5%
31%
36%
28%
10%
32%
33%
24%
16%
30%
28%
26%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(144)
(167)
100%
(310)
(85)
(119)
(64)
(278)
(42)
Party ID
A lot
Some
Not much
Not at all
Totals
(Weighted N)
Race/Ethnicity
Ideology
(1)
(22)
White Evangelical
(9)
Tea Party
Total
Democrat
Independent
Republican
Liberal
Moderate
Conservative
Yes
No
Yes
No
15%
29%
30%
26%
15%
29%
30%
27%
20%
31%
25%
24%
13%
28%
31%
28%
14%
31%
24%
31%
16%
26%
35%
23%
20%
25%
28%
27%
10%
33%
31%
26%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(75)
(230)
(149)
(162)
(156)
(155)
100%
(310)
(0)
(0)
(310)
(5)
37

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker: Arizona, August 2016

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CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker: Arizona, August 2016

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CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

1095 Likely Voters

1. Do you feel the economy in Arizona is generally doing ...?