M

E M O R A N D U M

To:
Interested Parties
From: Jill Normington
Date: August 8, 2016

The following is a summary of findings from a live interview telephone survey conducted among 800 likely voters in Illinois. Respondents were reached on
both landlines and mobile phones. Interviews were conducted August 1-4, 2016. The sampling error for this survey is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Summary
After the recent television exchange, Congresswoman Tammy Duckworth has expanded her lead over Senator Mark
Kirk to 44% to 37%.
Duckworth clearly won the recent television exchange that has strengthened her position and drained him of
resources.
These improvements for Duckworth took place without any commensurate advantage in the presidential race.

Over the course of the last three weeks, despite national polls showing a convention bounce for Hillary Clinton, our polling
indicates that Illinois is unaffected. Our July 11-14 poll showed Hillary Clinton beating Donald Trump 51%-32%. The current
August 1-4 poll shows Clinton besting Trump 51%-32%. Partisan identification is actually net two points more Republican
over that span. While there is stasis at the top of the ticket, what has changed is the Senate race.

In late June, Republican incumbent Senator Mark Kirk began an advertising campaign in the Chicago media market focused
on distancing himself from Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump. From June 23-July 28, Kirk spent more than a
million dollars on two television ads that sought to establish his independence from his Republican party and attacked
Tammy Duckworth on her commitment to Veterans, using the IDVA lawsuit as his primary evidence. According to his most
recent FEC filing, Kirks million-dollar television expenditure was roughly one-third of his total cash on hand of $3.1M.

From July 14-29, Duckworth spent just $620,00 defending herself and reacquainting voters with her record. The net effect of
this exchange, despite getting outspent, is that Duckworth increased her lead over Kirk. As the chart below indicates, our
July poll showed Duckworth leading Kirk by just two points, 40%-38% in the wake of more than $500,000 worth of advertising
from Kirk to which Duckworth had yet to respond. This most recent poll shows Duckworth leading Kirk by seven, 44%-37%,
after airing her rebuttal ad.

Duckworth

60%
50%
40%
30%

Kirk

Undecided

44%

40% 38%
22%

37%
19%

20%
10%
0%

July 11-14

August 1-4

Duckworth made gains among constituencies critical to Kirks success in November. She pulled ahead among Independents
and grew her vote among white voters downstate, among whites without a college degree and among Veteran households.
Moreover, she continues to hold substantial leads among the core Democratic constituencies of African American (71%-12%),
Hispanic (69%-17%), women (48%-31%) and millennial (46%-32%) voters.

It is clear that when Duckworth has adequate resources to compete in a television exchange, that she can win it. Moreover,
Kirk expenditures only served to increase Duckworths already sizeable cash on hand advantage over him. While there are
still three months to go until Election Day, Tammy Duckworth has emerged from the initial round of paid communication
with Mark Kirk in better electoral and fiscal shape than when it began.

1050 17TH STREET NW SUITE 444 WASHINGTON, DC 20036 JILL@NORMINGTONPETTS.COM