THE ELWAY POLL

16 AUG 16

16 AUGUST 16

Murray Holds onto 18-point Lead Over Vance.

Democrats Lead in 5 of 6 Statewide Races.
Patty Murray held an 18-point lead over her Republican challenger Chris Vance in the latest Elway
Poll, (52-34%) which is the same margin she had in April. She out-polled Vance by 28 points (5428%) in the August Primary. These results are similar to those in the governors race, where little
has changed over the last 5 months.

Murray leads Vance 93-1% among Democrats and splits

the Independents 38-36%. Vance has 82% of the Republi- VOTE FOR US SENATE
cans in his corner, but is currently losing 11% of Republicans to Murray.
In this highly partisan year, Vance is polling 10 points
above the proportion of self-identi ied Republicans in this
survey (34% vs. 24%). But Murray is polling 14 points
above the number of Democrats, and there are more Democrats than Republicans in this survey by a 38-24% margin.
Vance, who has refused to endorse Donald Trump, is
nevertheless getting 83% support from Trump voters. A
total of 12% of respondents said they would vote against a
Republican who refused to endorse Trump. Murray is leading Vance among those voters by just 46-41%.
Vance leads among voters planning not to vote in the Presidential race, those planning to vote for
third party candidates, and undecided voters indicating support among voters who are frustrated
with the political establishment. But these voters comprise only 33% of this sample and Vances combined lead is just 43-29% among them. On the other hand, among Clinton voters, who comprise 43% of
the sample, Murray leads 92-1%.
Given the math and the stability of the support levels, time is running out for Vance to deny Murray a
5th term in the senate.

Democrats Hold Edge in State Races

Republicans are guaranteed at least one of
the state constitutional of ices next year,
STATEWIDE RACES: CURRENT LEADERS BY PARTY
thanks to the Top-Two Primary system putting two Republicans in the general election
for State Treasurer.
Their next best opportunity is Secretary
of State Kim Wyman, currently the only
statewide elected Republican on the West
Coast, who is leading her Democrat challenger, Tina Podlodowski, in this poll.
Other than Wyman, the Democratic candidate is leading in every other statewide
race polled, although the Lands Commissioner race is well within the margin of
error.

THE ELWAY POLL 2016 Excerpts may be quoted with attribution.

THE ELWAY POLL

16 AUG 16

LT. GOVERNOR

Cyrus Habib (D) led among:

Democrats (73-2%)
King County (46-27%)
Likely voters (40-34%)
Marty McClendon (R) led among:
Republicans (75-4%)
Independents (36-25%)
Eastern WA (45-26%); Far West (37-33%)

SECRETARY OF STATE

Tina Podlodowski (D) led among:

Democrats (68-8%)
Seattle (42-18%); Other King Co (42-38%)
Women (39-32%)
Kim Wyman (R) led among:
Likely Voters (46-33%)
Republicans (83-1%); Independents (48-19%)
Far West (45-27%); Eastern W (56-20%)
Men (51-27%)

LANDS COMMISSIONER

Hilary Franz (D) led among:

Democrats (64-5%)
Seattle (49-11%)
Women (35-28%)
Steve McLaughlin (R) led among:
Republicans (72-5%); Independents (33-20%)
Eastern WA (43-27%)
Men (36-30%)

AUDITOR

Pat McCarthy (D) led among:

Democrats (66-4%)
Seattle (44-13%); Pierce+Kitsap (42-33%)
Women (39-23%)
Mark Miloscia ( R) led among
Republicans (71-8%)
Eastern WA (36-33%)

SUPT.

OF

PUBLIC INSTRUCTION

No significant differences in any category.

Erin Jones (NP) led among:
Democrats (21-16%)
Seattle (22-13%); Eastern WA (17-13%)
Women (18-14%)
Chris Reykdal (NP) led among:
Independents (16-12%)
Men (18-15%)

THE ELWAY POLL

16 AUG 16

1 in 4 Voters Intend to Split Their Ticket

Washington has been known as an Independent, ticket-splitting state. Self-declared Independents usually outnumber Democrats and Republicans in Washington, where there is no party registration.
The average party identi ication since the 2012 election has been: 43% Independent; 34% Democrat; and 26% Republican.
The legislature is divided between Republicans and Democrats, and the Congressional delegation is
split 6 Democrats to 4 Republicans. These splits are a result of district boundaries more than voters
actually splitting their tickets, however. Statewide voting follows a different pattern.
Old-timers (and current Republicans) are fond of the story of the 1964 election when Dan Evans
was elected in the face of the LBJ landslide. But that was a long time ago. The state has not voted for a
Democrat for President since 1988 nor a Republican for Governor since 1980. Republicans had a majority of state constitutional of ices from 1980 to 1988, and still had 3 of the 8 state of ices in 2004.
Now they have one.
TICKET SPLITTERS
In this survey:
38% said they would register as an Independent
if forced to register by party;
38% would register as a Democrat; and
24% would register as a Republican.
This follows a historical pattern of decreasing Independent self-identi ication and rising Democrat
identi ication as the election nears.
Of course, ticket-splitting is not the same thing as
thinking of oneself as an Independent. To measure
ticket splitting, poll respondents were asked about 7
partisan races. Although not all voters were decided
in all races, as things stand today:
41% were planning to vote for only Democrats and
48% mostly for Democrats; while
32% were planning to vote only for Republicans; and
37% mostly for Republicans.
These indings are nearly identical to the proportions at this stage in the 2012 election cycle.
The proportion of true ticket splitters is relatively small. Even among ticket splitters, half were
crossing party lines for only one candidate:
7% were planning to vote for 1 Republican but 3 or more Democrats;
5% were planning to vote for 1 Democrat but 3 or more Republicans. Just
12% were supporting equivalent numbers of Republicans and Democrats.
The voting intention of ticket splitters indicates how Washington continues to be a blue state, even
with its high number of Independents. Not only do Democrats enjoy a 14-point advantage in self-
identi ication, but ticket splitters tend to vote Democratic.
Among ticket splitters in this survey, Democrats were leading in 5 of the 7 partisan races:
Inslee led Bryant 47-35% for Governor;
Clinton led Trump 38-26% for President;
Murray led Vance 66-27% for US Senate;
Habib led McClendon 39-35% for Lt. Governor;
Wyman led Podlodowski 64-15% for Secretary of State;
McCarthy led Miloscia 45-31% for State Auditor;
McLaughlin led Franz 37-29% for Lands Commissioner.
The Elway Poll interviewed 500 registered voters, selected at random from registered voter lists in Washington state, August 9-13 2016 by live, professional interviewers.
36% of the interviews were conducted on cell phones. The margin of sampling error is 4.5% at the 95% level of confidence. This means, in theory, had this same survey been conducted 100
times, the results would be within 4.5% of the results reported here at least 95 times. A sample profile appears in the yesterdays publication.