Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Released:
Monday, August 22, 2016
Contact:
PATRICK MURRAY
732-979-6769 (cell); 732-263-5858 (office)
pdmurray@monmouth.edu
FollowonTwitter:@PollsterPatrick
Ohios electoral votes would not be in question if favorite son Gov. John Kasich nabbed the GOP
nomination. A solid 57% majority say they would have backed Kasich for president over 33% who
would support Clinton if this had been the match-up.
Unlike other former presidential candidates, Kasich has made a point of keeping his distance
from Trump. This has not hurt the governors reputation among his fellow Buckeyes 38% say they
think more highly of Kasich because he is not supporting Trump and just 17% think less highly of him.
Another 44% say Kasichs stand against Trump has had no impact on their opinion of the governor.
Like Kasich, very few Ohio voters have a positive opinion of either major party nominee. Just
29% have a favorable view of Trump and 58% have an unfavorable view. Clintons ratings are negligibly
better at 33% favorable and 51% unfavorable.
Both nominees are trying to appeal to the working class voter that typifies Ohio. Clinton has a
small edge when it comes to looking out for the little guy although opinion is not overwhelmingly
positive for either candidate. Just over 4-in-10 (42%) say Clinton would do a good job at this while 50%
say she would do a bad job. Slightly fewer voters (38%) say Trump would do a good job looking out for
the little guy while 53% say he would do a bad job.
Turning to the U.S. Senate race, the Monmouth University Poll finds GOP incumbent Rob
Portman with a 48% to 40% lead over former Democratic governor Ted Strickland. Another 4% say they
will vote for another candidate and 8% are undecided. Portman garners more support from his fellow
Republicans (88%) than Strickland does from his fellow Democrats (76%). Independents prefer Portman
by 47% to 37%.
Both candidates are making a pitch for the support of organized labor, with Portman having
picked up a number of key union endorsements. A majority of Ohio voters trust Portman to represent the
interests of workers in the state either a lot (21%) or a little (44%), with just 23% saying they do not trust
the Republican incumbent to do this. Strickland doesnt do quite as well on this metric 15% trust him a
lot and 41% trust him a little, while 35% say they do not trust the Democratic challenger to represent
workers interests.
Portman earns a net positive job rating from Ohio voters 39% approve and 29% disapprove
but nearly one-third (31%) have no opinion of the first-term senators performance. Even fewer voters
have an opinion of Portman personally 28% hold a favorable view and 20% have an unfavorable view,
with 52% who have formed no real opinion of him. Voters views of Strickland are more negative at 23%
favorable and 37% unfavorable, with 41% having no opinion.
Neither candidate has a prominent profile despite Portmans nearly six years as the states
senator and Stricklands four years in the Statehouse. However, Portmans low-key approach to his job
may be what punches his return ticket to Washington, said Murray.
The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from August 18 to 21 2016 with 402
Ohio residents likely to vote in the November election. This sample has a margin of error of +4.9
percent. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.
1/2. If the election for President was today, would you vote for Donald Trump the Republican,
Hillary Clinton the Democrat, Gary Johnson the independent Libertarian, or Jill Stein of the
Green Party? [IF UNDECIDED: If you had to vote for one of the following candidates at this
moment, who do you lean toward Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton?] [NAMES WERE ROTATED]
(with leaners)
Donald Trump
Hillary Clinton
Gary Johnson
Jill Stein
(VOL) Other candidate
(VOL) Undecided
Unwtd N
August
2016
39%
43%
10%
<1%
<1%
8%
402
3.
If the election for U.S. Senate was today, would you vote for Rob Portman the Republican,
Ted Strickland the Democrat, or some other candidate? [IF UNDECIDED: If you had to vote for
one of the following candidates at this moment, who do you lean toward Rob Portman or Ted
Strickland?] [NAMES WERE ROTATED]
August
2016
(with leaners)
48%
40%
4%
8%
Rob Portman
Ted Strickland
Other candidate
(VOL) Undecided
Unwtd N
402
29%
58%
13%
402
5.
Is your general impression of Hillary Clinton favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no
opinion of her?
August
2016
Favorable
Unfavorable
No opinion
Unwtd N
33%
51%
16%
402
38%
53%
9%
402
7.
Do you think Hillary Clinton as president would do a good job or bad job of looking out for
the little guy?
August
2016
Good job
Bad job
(VOL) Dont know
Unwtd N
42%
50%
9%
402
8.
Who would you have voted for if the presidential election had been between John Kasich
and Hillary Clinton? [NAMES WERE ROTATED]
August
2016
John Kasich
Hillary Clinton
(VOL) Other candidate
(VOL) Would not vote
(VOL) Undecided
Unwtd N
57%
33%
4%
2%
5%
402
9.
Governor Kasich said he cannot support Donald Trump for president. Does this make you
think more highly or less highly of Kasich personally, or does it have no impact on your opinion
of him?
August
2016
More highly
Less highly
No impact
(VOL) Dont know
Unwtd N
38%
17%
44%
1%
402
28%
20%
52%
402
11. Is your general impression of Ted Strickland favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no
opinion of him?
August
2016
Favorable
Unfavorable
No opinion
Unwtd N
23%
37%
41%
402
12.
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Rob Portman is doing as U.S. senator?
August
2016
Approve
Disapprove
(VOL) No opinion
Unwtd N
39%
29%
31%
402
21%
44%
23%
11%
402
14. How much do you trust Ted Strickland to represent the interests of workers in the state a
lot, a little, or not at all?
August
2016
A lot
A little
Not at all
(VOL) Dont know
Unwtd N
15%
41%
35%
9%
402
METHODOLOGY
The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling
Institute from August 18 to 21, 2016 with a random sample of 402 likely Ohio voters. Interviews were
conducted by a live caller in English, including 352 drawn from a list of registered voters (202 landline /
150 cell phone) and a random digit dial supplement of 50 cell phone interviews. Monmouth is responsible
for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. The final sample is weighted for age,
gender, race and voting history based on voter list and U.S. Census information. Data collection support
provided by Braun Research (field), Aristotle (voter list sample), and SSI (RDD sample). For results
based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a
maximum margin of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points (unadjusted for sample design). Sampling error
can be larger for sub-groups (see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind
that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the
findings of opinion polls.
DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted)
Self-Reported
29% Republican
37% Independent
33% Democrat
48% Male
52% Female
23% 18-34
25% 35-49
28% 50-64
24% 65+
83% White
12% Black
3% Hispanic
2% Other
MARGIN OF ERROR
unweighted
sample
moe
(+/-)
LIKELY VOTER
Total
402
4.9%
SELF-REPORTED
PARTY ID
Republican
Independent
Democrat
Conservative
Moderate
Liberal
Male
Female
18-49
50+
White non-Hispanic
Other
No
Yes
<$50K
$50-100K
$100K+
134
143
118
145
172
67
193
209
176
225
336
56
251
147
167
119
76
8.5%
8.2%
9.0%
8.1%
7.5%
12.0%
7.1%
6.8%
7.4%
6.5%
5.4%
13.1%
6.2%
8.1%
7.6%
9.0%
11.3%
IDEOLOGY
GENDER
AGE
RACE
COLLEGE DEGREE
INCOME
###
PARTY ID
Rep
Mod
GENDER
Lib
Male
AGE 2-WAY
Female
18-49
83%
35%
3%
72%
26%
13%
46%
31%
39%
Clinton
43%
3%
35%
88%
10%
53%
78%
32%
52%
35%
Johnson
10%
4%
20%
5%
10%
12%
8%
12%
8%
16%
Stein
0%
1%
0%
0%
0%
1%
0%
0%
1%
1%
0%
1%
0%
0%
0%
1%
0%
1%
0%
1%
Undecided
8%
7%
10%
4%
7%
9%
1%
8%
7%
8%
RACE
COLLEGE DEGREE
White nonHispanic
Other
No
INCOME
Yes
<$50K
$50-100K
$100K+
Trump
38%
45%
10%
40%
36%
35%
44%
43%
Clinton
50%
37%
72%
40%
47%
48%
38%
44%
Johnson
5%
11%
6%
10%
11%
10%
10%
8%
Stein
0%
0%
2%
1%
0%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Undecided
7%
7%
10%
9%
6%
6%
8%
5%
TOTAL
PARTY ID
Rep
Ind
POLITICAL IDEOLOGY
Dem
Con
Mod
GENDER
Lib
Male
AGE 2-WAY
Female
18-49
Portman
48%
88%
47%
14%
83%
37%
21%
53%
44%
50%
Strickland
40%
5%
37%
76%
12%
47%
76%
39%
42%
39%
Other
4%
2%
5%
4%
2%
6%
2%
4%
4%
3%
Undecided
8%
5%
11%
6%
3%
10%
2%
4%
11%
7%
AGE 2-WAY
RACE
White nonHispanic
50+
Q3. SEN VOTE WITH ALL
LEANERS
Con
39%
50+
Dem
Trump
AGE 2-WAY
POLITICAL IDEOLOGY
Ind
COLLEGE DEGREE
Other
No
Yes
INCOME
<$50K
$50-100K
$100K+
Portman
46%
53%
22%
48%
48%
42%
53%
53%
Strickland
41%
35%
69%
39%
42%
42%
42%
39%
Other
4%
3%
8%
4%
4%
5%
2%
3%
Undecided
8%
9%
2%
8%
7%
11%
4%
5%
Page 1
PARTY ID
Rep
Ind
AGE 2-WAY
Female
18-49
5%
54%
18%
14%
33%
26%
27%
Unfavorable
58%
21%
62%
86%
28%
68%
84%
50%
65%
60%
No opinion
13%
18%
11%
9%
17%
14%
2%
17%
9%
13%
RACE
White nonHispanic
COLLEGE DEGREE
Other
No
INCOME
Yes
<$50K
$50-100K
$100K+
Favorable
32%
34%
10%
33%
24%
28%
34%
29%
Unfavorable
56%
52%
80%
52%
67%
57%
57%
61%
No opinion
13%
14%
10%
15%
9%
15%
9%
11%
PARTY ID
Ind
POLITICAL IDEOLOGY
Dem
Con
Mod
GENDER
Lib
Male
AGE 2-WAY
Female
18-49
Favorable
33%
4%
24%
72%
9%
39%
66%
25%
41%
23%
Unfavorable
51%
88%
57%
12%
83%
41%
18%
61%
42%
57%
No opinion
16%
8%
19%
16%
8%
20%
16%
14%
18%
20%
AGE 2-WAY
RACE
White nonHispanic
50+
COLLEGE DEGREE
Other
No
INCOME
Yes
<$50K
$50-100K
$100K+
Favorable
43%
29%
59%
33%
34%
43%
25%
30%
Unfavorable
46%
56%
20%
50%
53%
43%
58%
57%
No opinion
11%
15%
21%
17%
13%
14%
17%
12%
Dem
Con
Lib
Male
TOTAL
PARTY ID
Rep
POLITICAL IDEOLOGY
Ind
Mod
GENDER
Female
Good job
38%
75%
34%
8%
67%
27%
15%
44%
32%
Bad job
53%
16%
55%
86%
21%
64%
82%
48%
59%
9%
9%
11%
6%
12%
9%
3%
8%
9%
AGE 2-WAY
18-49
Q6. Do you think Donald Trump
as president would do a good job
or bad job of looking out for the
little guy?
Male
27%
Rep
GENDER
Lib
61%
TOTAL
Mod
29%
50+
Con
Favorable
AGE 2-WAY
POLITICAL IDEOLOGY
Dem
RACE
50+
White nonHispanic
COLLEGE DEGREE
Other
No
Yes
INCOME
<$50K
$50-100K
$100K+
Good job
35%
40%
44%
10%
41%
33%
36%
42%
38%
Bad job
55%
52%
47%
79%
50%
59%
55%
51%
54%
10%
8%
9%
11%
10%
8%
10%
7%
8%
Page 2
PARTY ID
Rep
Mod
GENDER
Lib
Male
Female
6%
35%
81%
16%
46%
76%
34%
48%
Bad job
50%
90%
53%
12%
81%
42%
16%
59%
41%
9%
5%
12%
7%
3%
11%
7%
6%
11%
RACE
COLLEGE DEGREE
White nonHispanic
50+
Other
No
INCOME
Yes
<$50K
$50-100K
$100K+
Good job
36%
46%
37%
66%
40%
43%
51%
31%
40%
Bad job
55%
45%
55%
22%
53%
44%
41%
59%
52%
9%
9%
8%
13%
6%
13%
8%
10%
8%
TOTAL
PARTY ID
Rep
POLITICAL IDEOLOGY
Ind
Dem
Con
Mod
GENDER
Lib
Male
Female
John Kasich
57%
89%
59%
27%
81%
51%
30%
62%
52%
Hillary Clinton
33%
3%
29%
64%
10%
37%
64%
27%
39%
4%
5%
3%
3%
2%
5%
3%
4%
4%
2%
1%
5%
0%
3%
2%
0%
3%
2%
5%
3%
3%
6%
3%
5%
3%
6%
4%
AGE 2-WAY
18-49
Q8. Who would you have voted
for if the presidential election had
been between John Kasich and
Hillary Clinton?
Con
42%
18-49
Dem
Good job
AGE 2-WAY
POLITICAL IDEOLOGY
Ind
RACE
White nonHispanic
50+
COLLEGE DEGREE
Other
No
Yes
INCOME
<$50K
John Kasich
60%
54%
62%
32%
55%
61%
56%
Hillary Clinton
27%
37%
27%
61%
34%
30%
37%
5%
2%
4%
2%
3%
5%
1%
2%
2%
2%
0%
2%
2%
2%
6%
4%
5%
5%
6%
3%
3%
INCOME
$50-100K
Q8. Who would you have voted
for if the presidential election had
been between John Kasich and
Hillary Clinton?
$100K+
John Kasich
62%
54%
Hillary Clinton
26%
34%
5%
7%
2%
0%
5%
5%
Page 3
PARTY ID
Rep
Dem
Male
Female
36%
66%
12%
48%
64%
28%
47%
Less highly
17%
36%
15%
3%
36%
10%
3%
22%
13%
No impact
44%
52%
48%
31%
52%
41%
32%
49%
40%
1%
0%
1%
1%
0%
1%
2%
1%
0%
RACE
50+
COLLEGE DEGREE
White nonHispanic
Other
No
INCOME
Yes
<$50K
$50-100K
$100K+
More highly
39%
38%
37%
48%
35%
44%
37%
39%
44%
Less highly
13%
21%
20%
3%
17%
17%
16%
17%
18%
No impact
48%
40%
43%
47%
47%
39%
47%
44%
37%
0%
1%
0%
2%
0%
1%
0%
0%
1%
PARTY ID
Rep
Ind
POLITICAL IDEOLOGY
Dem
Con
Mod
GENDER
Lib
Male
AGE 2-WAY
Female
18-49
Favorable
28%
51%
25%
12%
46%
24%
12%
28%
28%
25%
Unfavorable
20%
7%
18%
34%
8%
19%
43%
21%
19%
10%
No opinion
52%
42%
58%
54%
46%
57%
45%
51%
52%
65%
AGE 2-WAY
RACE
White nonHispanic
50+
COLLEGE DEGREE
Other
No
Yes
INCOME
<$50K
$50-100K
$100K+
Favorable
31%
32%
9%
24%
35%
23%
26%
37%
Unfavorable
29%
21%
16%
21%
19%
21%
19%
23%
No opinion
40%
47%
75%
55%
46%
56%
55%
40%
Dem
Con
Lib
Male
TOTAL
PARTY ID
Rep
Lib
12%
TOTAL
GENDER
Mod
38%
18-49
Con
More highly
AGE 2-WAY
POLITICAL IDEOLOGY
Ind
Ind
POLITICAL IDEOLOGY
Mod
GENDER
AGE 2-WAY
Female
18-49
Favorable
23%
10%
18%
39%
10%
22%
53%
19%
26%
19%
Unfavorable
37%
55%
42%
16%
61%
30%
14%
41%
32%
31%
No opinion
41%
35%
40%
45%
29%
49%
34%
40%
42%
50%
Page 4
RACE
COLLEGE DEGREE
White nonHispanic
Other
No
<$50K
$50-100K
$100K+
26%
23%
23%
21%
26%
23%
27%
19%
Unfavorable
42%
40%
19%
37%
36%
32%
38%
42%
No opinion
32%
37%
59%
42%
37%
44%
36%
40%
PARTY ID
Rep
POLITICAL IDEOLOGY
Ind
Dem
Con
Mod
GENDER
Lib
Male
Female
Approve
39%
59%
36%
24%
55%
38%
22%
41%
38%
Disapprove
29%
18%
27%
44%
16%
30%
50%
31%
28%
31%
23%
37%
32%
29%
32%
28%
29%
33%
AGE 2-WAY
18-49
Q12. Do you approve or
disapprove of the job Rob
Portman is doing as U.S.
senator?
Yes
Favorable
TOTAL
Q12. Do you approve or
disapprove of the job Rob
Portman is doing as U.S.
senator?
INCOME
RACE
White nonHispanic
50+
COLLEGE DEGREE
Other
No
Yes
INCOME
<$50K
Approve
40%
39%
43%
23%
36%
44%
Disapprove
23%
35%
29%
30%
32%
26%
34%
32%
38%
26%
28%
47%
32%
30%
34%
INCOME
$50-100K
Q12. Do you approve or
disapprove of the job Rob
Portman is doing as U.S.
senator?
$100K+
Approve
42%
Disapprove
29%
40%
26%
28%
34%
TOTAL
PARTY ID
Rep
Ind
POLITICAL IDEOLOGY
Dem
Con
Mod
GENDER
Lib
Male
Female
A lot
21%
41%
16%
7%
36%
17%
10%
20%
22%
A little
44%
39%
49%
46%
41%
51%
42%
49%
40%
Not at all
23%
14%
22%
34%
14%
23%
35%
23%
24%
11%
7%
13%
12%
10%
10%
13%
8%
14%
Page 5
RACE
50+
Other
No
INCOME
Yes
<$50K
$50-100K
$100K+
20%
23%
24%
9%
19%
25%
19%
22%
23%
A little
50%
40%
47%
36%
45%
44%
43%
50%
43%
Not at all
17%
29%
20%
39%
25%
20%
28%
17%
22%
14%
9%
10%
16%
11%
11%
9%
11%
13%
PARTY ID
Rep
POLITICAL IDEOLOGY
Ind
Dem
Con
Mod
GENDER
Lib
Male
Female
A lot
15%
8%
7%
32%
6%
14%
37%
13%
17%
A little
41%
31%
45%
45%
32%
47%
46%
41%
41%
Not at all
35%
53%
41%
13%
55%
29%
9%
40%
30%
9%
8%
8%
10%
6%
10%
8%
6%
11%
AGE 2-WAY
18-49
Q14. How much do you trust Ted
Strickland to represent the
interests of workers in the state a lot, a little, or not at all?
COLLEGE DEGREE
A lot
TOTAL
Q14. How much do you trust Ted
Strickland to represent the
interests of workers in the state a lot, a little, or not at all?
White nonHispanic
RACE
50+
White nonHispanic
COLLEGE DEGREE
Other
No
Yes
INCOME
<$50K
$50-100K
$100K+
A lot
13%
18%
15%
20%
14%
19%
19%
10%
15%
A little
48%
34%
40%
51%
40%
41%
38%
52%
40%
Not at all
31%
39%
37%
21%
37%
33%
33%
32%
38%
8%
9%
9%
8%
9%
7%
11%
6%
7%
Page 6