Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Initiation
Wealth Research
BUY
EBITDA (%)
19.8
19.4
19.3
19.5
19.8
NPAT
136
143
195
233
291
Recommendation
Current Market Price (Rs)
Target Price (Rs)
Potential upside (%)
Sector Relative to Market
Stock Relative to Sector
675
874
29.5
In-Line
Outperform
Stock Information
BSE Code
NSE Code
Face Value (Rs/share)
No. of shares (Cr.)
Market Cap (Rs Cr.)
Free float (Rs Cr.)
52 Week H / L (Rs)
Avg. Daily turnover (12M, Rs Cr.)
520111
RATNAMANI
2.0
4.7
3,168
1,425
717/120
1.4
Promoters
FII
DII
Others
Sept-13
60.2
12.0
1.0
26.8
460
410
360
310
260
210
160
110
60
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Ratnamani
Jan-15
1M
14.5
-2.0
3M
60.2
5.5
6M
63.1
10.0
12M
412.3
67.4
YoY (%)
37.0
5.0
36.8
19.2
25.1
EPS (Rs)
29.12
30.59
41.84
49.86
62.40
P/E (x)
23.2
22.1
16.1
13.5
10.8
EV/EBITDA(x)
13.5
12.4
9.2
7.8
6.2
RoE(%)
23.1
20.2
23.0
22.7
23.5
Carbon Steel
Stainless Steel
Instrumentation
Seamless Tubes
Others
6%
Infrastructure,
26%
Refinaries,
Petrochem, Oil
& Gas
33%
Power - Nuclear
and Thermal
35%
Niche pipe player in the stainless steel segment with best in industry margins
Ratnamani has expertise in manufacturing customized stainless steel pipes. It manufactures customized project pipes, which are
mostly used in highly corrosive environment such as oil & gas refineries, nuclear power, thermal power and chemical & fertilizer
plants. These pipes form a critical part of the plant and carry a very high failure cost. Ratnamanis customers include companies
like Reliance Industries, BHEL, L&T Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL), Indian Oil Corporation (IOCL) and Hindustan Petroleum
Corporation (HPCL), BASF, Alstom, Shell etc. It has been supplying these products since 1985 and has approvals from all the
leading industry majors which gives an edge over its competitors. Ratnamani focuses on manufacturing products which are used
for high end applications, while its peers are focused on products for low end applications. This enables it to command the best in
industry margins of ~25-30% in this segment.
The impending revival in the capex cycle in the oil refinery, petrochemicals, power and fertilizer sectors is likely to create robust
demand for pipe companies going ahead. Expected investments in the oil & gas sector for upgrading the current capacities and
green field expansions could accelerate the order flows in the next few years. On the domestic front, two more green-field refineries
in Barmer (Rajasthan) and Konkan (Maharashtra) have been planned which could start procurement in FY2016E. Further, owing to
the increasing urbanization and industrialization, the government is focused on reviving the power sector. Considering the
significance of the pipes which Ratnamani has been supplying since the past two decades, we expect it to benefit from the likely
increase in order flows from oil refinery, petrochemicals, power and fertilizer sectors going ahead.
Region
Nos of
Projects
Value ($ billion)
North America
229
64
69
Latin America
48
33
52
Europe
119
36
65
Africa
62
25
31
Middle East
92
25
41
Asia
76
40
73
Australia
Total
47
14
26
673
237
357
Further, the Governments initiative on improving the infrastructure could lead to increasing orders from the water and gas sectors.
Ratnamani had secured a contract from the Gujarat Government - Saumi Yojna worth Rs431 crore, which is executable by May
2015. In India water projects of Gujarat Water Infrastructure Ltd. (GWIL) and few projects from Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) such as
Paradeep- Raipur-Ranchi pipeline, Ennore-Trichy-Madurai pipeline are expected to be awarded in FY2015E-16E. Further, few gas
pipeline projects such as Mehsana-Bhatinda pipeline project, Mallavaram-Bhopal-Bhilwara-Vijaipur natural gas pipeline project and
Bhatinda-Jammu pipeline project are expected to come on stream in the coming years.
During Q2FY2015, carbon steel order book grew by 2x YoY at Rs630 crore. Ratnamani has approvals from all the industry majors
and also has a huge product range. Following a likely revival in the overall capex cycle, we expect Ratnamani to be a key
beneficiary considering it has been a preferred supplier for various companies over the years.
50.2
20.5
16.2
600
45
500
35
2000
25
10.4
1500
15
-4.5
1222
1201
FY11
FY12
FY13
-1.7
2524
814
500
2094
5
1803
1000
FY14
FY15E
FY16E
FY17E
-5
-15
22.0
19.8
19.4
300
19.0
18.2
16.8
200
18.0
100
17.0
148
205
FY11
FY12
238
257
348
FY13
FY14
EBITDA (Rs Crore)
FY15E FY16E
Margins (%)
300
19.2
26.0
35.0
24.0
30.0
22.0
25.0
20.0
150
100
15.0
10.1
23.1
20.6
20.5
16.0
16.0
5.0
82
99
136
143
195
233
291
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15E
FY16E
FY17E
22.7
19.7
19.9
20.2
18.0
14.0
50
23.5
23.0
21.2
10.0
5.0
FY17E
20.0
(%)
20.4
200
40.0
(%)
(Rs Crore)
250
500
16.0
Growth(%)
36.8
408
37.0
20.0
19.3
350
21.0
19.5
19.8
400
(Rs Crore)
35.9
1326
(Rs Crore)
2500
55
(%)
3000
(%)
12.0
16.6
14.7
10.8
0.0
Net Profit (Rs crore)
Growth(%)
10.0
FY11
FY12
FY13
RoE (%)
FY14
FY15E
RoCE(%)
FY16E
FY17E
200
300
0.55
0.60
0.52
160
(Rs Crore)
(Rs Crore)
140
120
100
178
80
0.50
200
0.40
150
0.30
0.18
100
60
0.20
0.10
112
40
20
250
19
37
20
FY12
FY13
FY14
0.05
FY15E
0.10
0.03
240
275
119
73
71
60
35
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15E
FY16E
FY17E
0
FY11
0.08
50
80
53
FY16E
FY17E
(x)
180
0.00
Debt (Rs Crore)
Quarterly Performance:
Exhibit 10: Standalone Quarterly Performance
Y/E Mar (Rs Cr.)
Revenue
Q2FY14
Q3FY14
Q4FY14
Q1FY15
Q2FY15
287
347
401
349
438
(4.7)
27.5
16.1
20.0
52.4
173
233
257
227
281
% of sales
64.1
YoY Growth %
60.1
67.1
64.1
64.9
Employee Expenses
19
20
20
21
25
% of Sales
6.5
5.8
5.1
6.1
5.7
Other Expenses
% of Sales
EBIDTA
EBIDTA margin %
Depreciation
46
29
38
33
44
15.9
8.5
9.6
9.3
10.1
50
64
85
69
88
17.4
18.6
21.3
19.7
20.1
11
12
12
13
16
Interest
Other Income
PBT
40
54
73
58
75
14
18
23
19.9
25.7
35.1
33.0
30.8
34.0
34.3
26
36
51
38
49
YoY Growth %
(41.4)
13.6
28.6
28.1
88.9
PAT margin %
9.1
10.4
12.7
11.0
11.2
For Q2FY2015 on a standalone basis, revenue grew by 52.4% YoY to Rs438 crore on the back of 81.7% YoY growth in carbon
steel segment and 48.2% YoY growth in stainless steel segment. EBITDA grew by 76% YoY to Rs88 crore with the margins
expanding by 270bps YoY to 20.1%. Reported net profit grew by 89% YoY to Rs49 crore. EPS for the quarter stood at Rs10.5 as
against Rs5.6 in Q2FY2014. The order book increased by 32% YoY to Rs1,068 crore.
Risk Factors:
Delay in capex revival: Ratnamanis growth depends upon capex in sectors like Oil Refinery, Power, Chemicals &
Fertilizers, etc. Any delay in revival of planned industrial capex would impact the growth of the company.
Volatility in raw material prices: Ratnamani utilizes raw materials such as stainless steel coil, plates & ignots and carbon
steel coils & plates. Any major volatility in the raw material prices may impact its profitability.
Valuation
At the current price, the stock trades at 10.8x FY2017E EPS of Rs62.4. Considering its leadership position in the domestic stainless
steel pipe segment, we believe Ratnamani is best suited to benefit from the impending revival in the domestic capex cycle in oil
refinery, petrochemicals, power and fertilizer sectors. We initiate coverage on Ratnamani with a BUY rating and a target price of
Rs874, valuing it at 14x FY2017E EPS.
Exhibit 11: Business Comparison
Revenue Growth (%)
FY16E
FY17E
16.2
20.5
23.6
19.7
9.5
5.1
22.2
18.0
-
Mkt Cap
(Rs Cr)
Company
RATNAMANI METALS
JINDAL SAW LTD
WELSPUN CORP LTD
MAHARASHTRA SEAM
APL APOLLO TUBES
3,168
2,449
1,816
1,558
787
OPM (%)
FY16E
FY17E
19.5
19.8
13.9
14.8
9.5
10.3
9.9
6.2
-
P/E (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
RoE (%)
FY16E
13.5
5.5
FY17E
10.8
3.9
FY16E
7.8
6.2
FY17E
6.2
4.9
FY16E
22.7
11.3
FY17E
23.5
13.7
0.2
1.4
7.2
7.4
4.0
-
5.1
6.0
4.4
-
7.9
8.2
12.3
-
0.3
8.9
5.4
15.0
Price (Rs)
3.0 X
7.0 X
11.0 X
15.0 X
Apr-15
Oct-14
Jan-15
Jul-14
Apr-14
Jan-14
Jul-13
Oct-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Jul-12
Oct-12
Apr-12
Oct-11
Jan-12
Jul-11
Apr-11
Jan-11
Jul-10
Oct-10
Apr-10
Jan-10
Jul-09
Oct-09
Apr-09
19.0 X
Ratnamani has been on a strong leg up since the past few months and maintains a strong trading as well as positional
trajectory.
While the overall structure of the scrip remains bullish, its oscillators are indicating clear negative divergence and can thus lead
to short term volatility in the scrip.
The scrip though is likely to find strong support in case of a correction towards 600-620 which is good accumulation range for
fresh buys for a target of 850 in the coming 4-6 months. 550 is an ideal risk management level at the current juncture for the
scrip.
Income statement
Y/E Mar (Rs Cr)
FY2013
Revenue
1,201
1,326
1,803
2,094
2,524
Growth %
(1.7)
10.4
35.9
16.2
20.5
740
841
1,180
1,372
1,643
% of sales
61.6
63.4
65.4
65.5
65.1
Employee Expenses
72
79
103
121
149
Tax expenses
% of Sales
6.0
6.0
5.7
5.8
5.9
Other Expenses
151
150
171
193
232
Capex
% of Sales
12.6
11.3
9.5
9.2
9.2
EBIDTA
238
257
348
408
500
EBIDTA margin %
19.8
19.4
19.3
19.5
19.8
Depreciation
42
46
62
69
77
Interest
12
10
Other Income
18
14
14
15
18
202
214
293
349
437
PBT
Provision for tax
66
71
98
116
145
32.5
33.3
33.3
33.3
33.3
Net Profit
136
143
195
233
291
Growth %
37.0
5.0
36.8
19.2
25.1
PAT Margin %
11.3
10.8
10.8
11.1
11.5
FY2013
Share capital
637
757
920
1,112
1,345
Shareholder's fund
647
767
929
1,121
1,355
119
40
73
47
202
214
293
349
Depreciation
42
46
62
69
77
Others
(4)
(3)
(7)
(9)
(14)
51
(33)
(194)
(130)
(142)
(55)
(65)
(98)
(116)
(145)
236
160
57
162
212
(58)
(80)
(37)
(125)
(100)
(5)
(29)
14
15
18
(63)
(109)
(23)
(110)
(82)
Borrowings/ (Repayments)
Dividends paid
Interest paid
Cash flow from financing
Net Cash Flow
(59)
(2)
(11)
(25)
(16)
(22)
(33)
(41)
(57)
(8)
(6)
(7)
(6)
(4)
(184)
(85)
(41)
(58)
(86)
(11)
(34)
(8)
(6)
43
Key Ratios
Y/E Mar
71
47
60
47
35
47
RoE
23.1
20.2
23.0
22.7
23.5
RoCE
16.0
16.6
19.7
19.9
21.2
RoIC
26.2
25.0
28.3
28.3
31.0
Inventory
70.7
69.3
68.0
70.0
70.0
Debtors
76.3
76.5
75.0
78.0
78.0
Creditors
29.8
34.9
30.5
27.9
27.4
3.1
3.0
4.2
4.5
5.2
806
886
1,047
1,228
1,437
413
455
429
486
509
29
54
54
54
54
Interest coverage
Per share (Rs)
(159)
437
Balance Sheet
Y/E Mar (Rs Cr)
Debt-equity
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.03
16.1
20.4
42.8
60.9
104.7
60
43
35
30
73
Inventories
233
252
336
402
484
EPS
29.1
30.6
41.8
49.9
62.4
Debtors
251
278
370
448
539
BVPS
138.5
164.2
199.0
240.1
290.2
CEPS
38.2
40.4
55.2
64.6
78.9
DPS (Rs)
4.0
4.5
6.0
7.5
10.5
0.6
0.7
0.9
1.1
1.6
16.0
17.2
16.8
17.6
19.7
23.2
22.1
16.1
13.5
10.8
42
65
63
84
101
586
639
805
962
1,197
223
261
241
275
323
363
377
563
688
874
Total assets
806
886
1,047
1,228
1,437
Dividend Ratios
4.9
4.1
3.4
2.8
2.3
13.5
12.4
9.2
7.8
6.2
2.7
2.4
1.8
1.5
1.2
Appendix A
Disclaimer
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CBL has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority
from accessing /dealing in securities market.
No
Whether CBL and its associates have any financial interest in the subject
company and nature of such financial interest
No
No
No
(a) Whether the research analyst or his relatives has any other material
conflict of interest
No
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(b) Whether CBL or its associates has any other material conflict of
interest
No
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No
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No
No
13
No
14
No
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Website: www.centrum.co.in
Investor Grievance Email ID: investor.grievances@centrum.co.in
Compliance Officer Details:
Kavita Ravichandran
(022) 4215 9842; Email ID: compliance@centrum.co.in
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