BBA315 2016 Week13 ExamPrep Notes

8/06/2016
BBA315 Business Forecasting
Examination Preparation
Week #13
Week #13
Agenda
Reading Game contributions
Group Project
Last years Exam
THE READING GAME

ENDS
SUNDAY 12 JUNE
8 June 2016
BBA315 Poll: GOP candidate prediction at 17 March 2016

35
Review of your
Qualitative
Forecasts
30
25
20
From Week #3
15
10
0
6 /8 /1 6
Marco Rubio
John Kasisch
Ted Cruz
Donald Trump
8/06/2016
BBA315: Likelihood of Buying New Smartphone

by End of Semester at 17 March 2016
Group Project
In response to questions this week
Certain, practically certain (99 in 100)
Mean = 9%
(20 people in class)
Almost sure (9 in 10)

Very probable (8 in 10)
Probable (7 in 10)
Good possibility (6 in 10)
Fairly good possibility (5 in 10)
Fair possibility (4 in 10)
Some possibility (3 in 10)
Slight possibility (2 in 10)
Very slight possibility (1 in 10)
No chance, almost no chance (1 in 100)
0%
5%
10%
15 %
2 0%
25%
3 0%
35%
Double-check group
membership
Dont over-think the task
Double-check that you are in the group that you

think youre in
No need to use multiple data series

separate white from red wines, goon-bags from glass bottles, sparkling from
still, etc., etc.
Just use the given data series
If you joined a group of people that dont know you, then you may have
been removed.
(Table#2 from ABS wine domestic sales first column)
No need to find additional series

Demographics (age, sex, background) (Why?)
6 /8 /1 6
Dont waste your time

(or mine)
Remember, its a managerial

consulting report
Some forecasting methods are obviously not

appropriate (e.g.: Seasonality)
If you are a busy manager who wants a forecast, do

you want to know all of the maths, robustness
tests, and other checks that a specialist needs to
know?
Explain what youve done in plain language,
referring to details in the appendices.
Using them suggests that you dont understand that theyre inappropriate
So dont even bother to use/test them

Point out that theyre inappropriate and then test methods that are
appropriate.
Place details, if needed, in an appendix.

Each appendix should be numbered, on a new page, with headings and
explanation of what the reader should understand from looking at it.
The reader should not have to check the appendix to understand and accept
what you write.
11
12
8/06/2016
Avoid screen capture
Answer the questions
Screen Capture rarely looks good,
Two major tasks:

1. Forecast sales/production volume for the firm
2. Offer advise on viability of increased
production
unless youre using a VERY high-definition monitor.
MiniTab has options to

save graph to Word, and
save graph to .PNG
Excel lets you cut & paste directly into Word
If your report does not support these two questions

then leave it out
NO need for screen capture!

13
14
download the Marking Guide
Dont write something that

you dont understand
Criterion
None/missing
Selection of
forecasting m ethod.
Clea r review o f different

Clea r review o f different
fo reca sting o ptions. Evaluation
Different m etho dswere
fo reca sting o ptions. Evaluation o f which is better foreca st of
co nsidered b utnot well
Unclea r ho w method was
Unclea r wha t metho ds were eva lua ted. No clear recognition o f which is better forecast of pa st va lues. Selectio n of one
decided. A to tally
pa st va lues. Selectio n of one
o f sea so na il ty or trend, using g o o d method a ppropria tefor g o o d method a ppropria tefor
ina ppro priate method chosen. co nsidered o r rejected.
( 6-12)
the da ta . Ack no wledgement of
g ra ph o rco rrelog ram.
( 0-5)
the da ta .
lim ita tio ns of the methods.
( 13-18)
Unsatisfactory Satisfactory
Good
( 19-24)
Out of
30
( 25-30)
No rea so n for deciding o n

when o r ho wdata were
co m b ined. ( 0-2)
Cho o sing thewro ng data

Da ta a re b roug ht together, but Clea r discussio n for choice of Bo th o ptions (co mbining first
series. No t clea r ho wor
jo ining data series to gether o r la st) tested and eva u
l ated.
whether the two data series are little discussio n o fwhy.
( 5-6)
first o r la st. (7-8)
( 9-10)
b ro ug ht together. ( 3-4)
10
No t clea r what method was

Application of
used. Used inco rrectly.
forecasting m ethod ( 0-2)
Clea r ex plication ofthe method

Clea r ex plication ofthe method results, a nd foreca st.
Discussio n o f foreca stsforthe
Clea r ex plication ofthe method results, a nd foreca st.
Num erica l fo recast, wti h little results, a nd foreca st.
Discussio n o f forecastsfor the desired tim e perio ds, erro r
discussio n o n wha titm eans Discussio n o f forecastsfor the desired tim e perio ds, erro r b o unds, and sho rtco mings of
fo r the co m pa ny. (3-4)
desired tim e perio ds. ( 5-6) b o unds, and sho rtco mings of the m etho d. S peculation o n
wha t m a y cause different
the m etho d. ( 7-8)
results. ( 9-10)
10
Co nsidera tion ofthe nature of

the industry - competitiveness,
co nsum er b ehavio ur,
ta x a tio n &Go vernment
po licy, o r gro wth -thatm ay
a ffect a n increa se in sales for
Co m pa ny. S ugg estionson what
wo uld need o
t happen n
i
Industry o r Com pany
to a chieve the 7 5
. %g rowth
ta rg et. ( 25-30)
30
Fo cus o n the foreca sting

Pro perly la b elled graphs that pro b lem , clear graphs and
Fo cus o n technicalities rather Gra phs a re appropriate for the ha ve b een edited o
f rea se-o ftha n co m municating to
ta sk b ut ju stcut&pa stefro m rea ding with redundancies ex pla na tio ns, pro per use o f
S tyles, ta b le of contents, list of
m a na g ementa udience. Poorly MiniTa b o rExcel without rem o ved. S tyles. Table of
fig ures, pa ge numb ers.
la b elled g raphs and
editing fo rcla rity and
Co ntents, pag enum bers.
Appendices if/where needed.
ex pla na tio ns. (5-8)
a ttra ctiveness. ( 9-12)
( 13-16)
20
I ntegration of data
series
It shows
15
Exemplary
Quality of advise on
planned sales
increase
No discussio n o findustryo r
Little link between n
i dustry
co m pa ny ob jectives, o r
a nd co m pany perfo rmance.
co nsum er o r socia l issues.
Advise is no t co nsistentwith Advise is no t ba sed o n
fo reca st o r industry discussion. rea so na b le foreca stofsales for
the perio d. (6-12)
( 0-5)
Layout &
presentation
Unclea r where pro blem

definitio n, m etho d, a nd
fo reca sting b egin or end.
( 0-4)
Co nsidera tion ofthe nature of

Co nsidera tion ofthe nature of the industry - competitiveness,
the industry - competitiveness, co nsum er b ehaviour, taxation
co nsum er b ehavio ur, orgrowth & Go vernm ent policy, o r
- that may affect an increase in g ro wth - tha tma y affecta n
sa les fo r Co mpany. (13-18) increa se in sa les for Company.
( 19-24)
( 17-20)
Submission
One submission per group
Last Years Final Exam
Feedback & Marks will be given to all members of the group automatically.
June 2015
One document only

DOCX Format:
okay to use DOC, RTF, or ODT.
That is, place all cover page, Table of Contents, Report, and
Appendices into one DOCX file.
Do not submit in a destination format

PDF, ePub, MOBI, iBook, azw.
17
Ma rk e ti n g &Ma na ge men t
18
8/06/2016
Instructions
Answer Part A questions on the MCQ answer sheet
provided. Answer all questions.
Answer Part B questions directly on the exam
paper in the space provided. Answer all questions.
BBA315 Exam
S1 2015
In Part B, do not write essays.

Short phrases, single words and point-form
responses, as appropriate, are all that are expected.
June 2015
6 /8 /1 6
19
Download from Library:

Link here
20
Question 1: Time-Series
Forecasting
Incomplete work undertaken by a consultant for
WaterCraft Inc. manufactures JetSkis). Budgets
require quarterly forecasts for total sales.
7 spreadsheets
the first of actual sales of the company,
next 6 spreadsheets labelled Model 1-6.
Find the right exam:

Session 1 2015
Quarterly Sales data from the June quarter

2009 to the March quarter 2015.
RMSE = Root Mean Squared Error
21
22
Q1
7 0,000
6 0,000
5 0,000
Oct-14
Dec-14
Feb -15
Apr-14
J un-14
Aug -14
Oct-13
Dec-13
Feb -14
Apr-13
J un-13
Aug -13
Oct-12
Dec-12
Feb -13
Apr-12
J un-12
Aug -12
Oct-11
Dec-11
Feb -12
Aug -11
Feb -11
Apr-11
J un-11
Oct-10
Dec-10
Aug -10
Feb -10
Apr-10
J un-10
Oct-09
Dec-09
J un-09
Aug -09
4 0,000
23
No v-14
J a n-14
J un-14
Aug -13
Ma r-13
Dec-11
Oct-12
J ul-11
Ma y-12
Q1.1b: What factors

may have caused the
time series
characteristics? (2
marks)
Feb -11
9 0,000
80,000
S ep-10
110,000
100,000
Apr-10
13 0,000
12 0,000
JetSki Sales
14 0,000
13 0,000
12 0,000
110,000
100,000
9 0,000
80,000
7 0,000
6 0,000
5 0,000
4 0,000
J un-09
Q1.1a: Briefly describe

the characteristics of
the series. (2 marks)
No v-09
JetSki Sales
14 0,000
24
8/06/2016
Q1.1a: Briefly describe the characteristics of the

series. (2 marks)
Q1.1b: What factors may have caused the time

series characteristics? (2 marks)
25
26
Q2
Q1.2a: What type of model is being used in the
spreadsheets? (1 Mark)
Q1.2b: What steps has the modeller taken to
make the forecast? (It is not necessary to provide
equations) (1 Mark)
Q1.2c: Provide forecasts for the next four
quarters i.e. June 2015 to March 2016. (2 Marks)
14 0,000
13 0,000
12 0,000
110,000
100,000
9 0,000
80,000
7 0,000
Actua l S a les
6 0,000
Predicted
S a les
5 0,000
J a n-14
J un-14
No v-14
Oct-12
Aug -13
Ma r-13
J ul-11
Ma y-12
Feb -11
Dec-11
S ep-10
4 0,000
Apr-10
92,444
No v-09
RMSE
J un-09
MODEL 1
Tim e
Actual
Predicted
Qtr
Period Sales
Sales
Jun-09
1
56,203
Sep-09
2
60,452
Dec-09
3
109,952
Mar-10
4
82,893
Jun-10
5
66,220
77,375
Sep-10
6
79,409
79,879
Dec-10
7
116,390
84,619
Mar-11
8
98,737
86,228
Jun-11
9
74,887
90,189
Sep-11
10
76,285
92,356
Dec-11
11
117,312
91,575
Mar-12
12
90,775
91,805
Jun-12
13
79,777
89,815
Sep-12
14
88,694
91,037
Dec-12
15
124,867
94,140
Mar-13
16
105,710
96,028
Jun-13
17
74,399
99,762
Sep-13
18
79,656
98,418
Dec-13
19
127,325
96,158
Mar-14
20
103,299
96,773
Jun-14
21
78,386
96,170
Sep-14
22
82,733
97,167
Dec-14
23
126,713
97,936
Mar-15
24
92,976
97,783
Qtr
Forecas t
J un-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
27

M ar-16
OFFICE I FACULTY I DEPARTMENT
28

Qtr
Forecast
Jun-15

equations) (1 Mark)
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
29
30
8/06/2016
MODEL 2
Jun-09
Sep-09
2
Dec-09
3
Mar-10
4
Jun-10
5
Sep-10
6
Dec-10
7
Mar-11
8
Jun-11
9
Sep-11
10
Dec-11
11
Mar-12
12
Jun-12
13
Sep-12
14
Dec-12
15
Mar-13
16
Jun-13
17
Sep-13
18
Dec-13
19
Mar-14
20
Jun-14
21
Sep-14
22
Dec-14
23
Mar-15
24
Jun- 15
S ep- 15
Dec-Ma15
rk e ti n g &Ma na ge men t
Mar- 16
Act ual
S ales
Level
Tren
d
56,203
56,203
3000
60,452
109,952
82,893
66,220
79,409
116,390
98,737
74,887
76,285
117,312
90,775
79,777
88,694
124,867
105,710
74,399
79,656
127,325
103,299
78,386
82,733
126,713
92,976
59,453
71,993
78,131
79,898
83,402
93,441
98,860
98,421
97,407
103,957
104,424
102,051
101,046
106,982
108,615
103,543
99,371
104,779
105,201
100,481
96,690
101,895
100,305
3050
4948
5186
4502
4303
5450
5444
4267
3211
3879
3196
2083
1465
2359
2214
757
-229
898
803
-302
-999
242
-125
Predict ed
S ales
alpha 0.2
b et a 0.2
Q1.3
RMS E
59,203
62,503
76,941
83,317
84,400
87,704
98,891
104,304
102,688
100,618
107,836
107,620
104,134
102,511
109,341
110,829
104,300
99,142
105,677
106,005
100,179
95,691
102,137
2 2 ,780
1 4 0 ,0 0 0
1 3 0 ,0 0 0
1 2 0 ,0 0 0
1 1 0 ,0 0 0
1 0 0 ,0 0 0
9 0 ,0 0 0
8 0 ,0 0 0
7 0 ,0 0 0
6 0 ,0 0 0
Actu al Sal es
P red i cted Sal es
5 0 ,0 0 0
4 0 ,0 0 0

equations) (1 Mark)
Qtr
Forecas t
J un-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
31
M ar-16
32
Q1.3
Q1.3


equations) (1 Mark)
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
35
RMS E
18,9 70
1 4 0 ,0 0 0
1 3 0 ,0 0 0
1 2 0 ,0 0 0
1 1 0 ,0 0 0
1 0 0 ,0 0 0
9 0 ,0 0 0
8 0 ,0 0 0
7 0 ,0 0 0
6 0 ,0 0 0
Actu al

P red i cted

5 0 ,0 0 0
Jan -1 4
Ju n -1 4
Oct-1 2
Au g-1 3
M ar-1 3
4 0 ,0 0 0
Ju l -1 1
Jun-15
Predict ed
S ales
78,612
79,726
80,840
81,953
83,067
84,180
85,294
86,408
87,521
88,635
89,748
90,862
91,976
93,089
94,203
95,316
96,430
97,544
98,657
99,771
100,884
101,998
103,112
104,225
M ay-1 2
Forecast
Act ual
S ales
56,203
60,452
109,952
82,893
66,220
79,409
116,390
98,737
74,887
76,285
117,312
90,775
79,777
88,694
124,867
105,710
74,399
79,656
127,325
103,299
78,386
82,733
126,713
92,976
Feb -1 1
Qtr
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun- 15
S ep- 15
Ma rk
e ti n g15
&Ma na ge men t
DecMar- 16
Dec-1 1

MODEL 3
Time
Perio d
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
Sep -1 0
Qt r
34
Ju n -0 9
Q1.3
Ap r-1 0
33
No v-0 9
No v-1 4
Time
Perio d
Ju n -0 9
Sep -0 9
Dec-0 9
M ar-1 0
Ju n -1 0
Sep -1 0
Dec-1 0
M ar-1 1
Ju n -1 1
Sep -1 1
Dec-1 1
M ar-1 2
Ju n -1 2
Sep -1 2
Dec-1 2
M ar-1 3
Ju n -1 3
Sep -1 3
Dec-1 3
M ar-1 4
Ju n -1 4
Sep -1 4
Dec-1 4
M ar-1 5
Qt r
36
8/06/2016
Q1.4
Q1.4

equations) (1 Mark)

Qtr

equations) (1 Mark)
Forecas t
J un-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
M ar-16
37
38
MODEL 4
Q1.4
Qtr
Forecast
Jun-15
105,339
Sep-15
106,452
Dec-15
107,566
Mar-16
108,679
39
Predict ed
S ales
56,203
60,452
109,952
82,893
66,220
79,409
116,390
98,737
74,887
76,285
117,312
90,775
79,777
88,694
124,867
105,710
74,399
79,656
127,325
103,299
1 4 0 ,0 0 0
1 3 0 ,0 0 0
1 2 0 ,0 0 0
1 1 0 ,0 0 0
1 0 0 ,0 0 0
9 0 ,0 0 0
8 0 ,0 0 0
7 0 ,0 0 0
6 0 ,0 0 0
Actu al
Sal es
5 0 ,0 0 0
4 0 ,0 0 0
Ju n -0 9
Sep -0 9
Dec-0 9
M ar-1 0
Ju n -1 0
Sep -1 0
Dec-1 0
M ar-1 1
Ju n -1 1
Sep -1 1
Dec-1 1
M ar-1 2
Ju n -1 2
Sep -1 2
Dec-1 2
M ar-1 3
Ju n -1 3
Sep -1 3
Dec-1 3
M ar-1 4
Ju n -1 4
Sep -1 4
Dec-1 4
M ar-1 5
Time
Act ual S ales
Perio d
Jun-09
1
56,203
Sep-09
2
60,452
Dec-09
3
109,952
Mar-10
4
82,893
Jun-10
5
66,220
Sep-10
6
79,409
Dec-10
7
116,390
Mar-11
8
98,737
Jun-11
9
74,887
Sep-11
10
76,285
Dec-11
11
117,312
Mar-12
12
90,775
Jun-12
13
79,777
Sep-12
14
88,694
Dec-12
15
124,867
Mar-13
16
105,710
Jun-13
17
74,399
Sep-13
18
79,656
Dec-13
19
127,325
Mar-14
20
103,299
Jun-14
21
78,386
Sep-14
22
82,733
Dec-14
23
126,713
Mar-15
24
92,976
Jun- 15
S ep- 15
OFFICE
I
FA
CUL
TY
I
DEPA
RTME
NT
Dec- 15
Mar- 16
Qt r
RMS E
8,9 84
Q1.5
Q1.5


40
Nave Seasonal
Same period .last year

equations) (1 Mark)

equations) (1 Mark)
(You are NOT asked to make forecasts for this

model)
Forecast for next period is equal to same

period last year.
41
42
8/06/2016
78,627
82,249
85,423
88,209
91,272
91,965
91,690
90,810
90,426
92,588
95,084
97,895
99,090
97,288
96,465
96,471
96,668
97,551
97,859
96,492
Indices
Deseaso nal
70,197
69,816
83,956
79,592
82,708
91,709
88,872
1 4 0 94,805
1 3 0 93,534
1 2 0 88,101
1 1 0 89,576
1 0 0 87,160
90
99,641
80
102,432
70
95,345
60
101,500
50
92,924
40
91,994
97,221
99,185
97,904
95,548
96,754
89,273
101,775
102 ,6 52
103,52 8
104 ,4 04
1.3096
1.0415
0.8006
0.8659
Th o u san d s
CMA
Predict ed
S ales
64,649
70,676
108,044
86,833
67,455
73,710
112,634
90,483
70,261
76,745
117,224
94,133
73,067
79,780
121,814
97,784
75,874
82,815
126,404
101,434
78,680
85,849
130,994
105,084
Q1.6
Ju n -0 9
Sep -0 9
Dec-0 9
M ar-1 0
Ju n -1 0
Sep -1 0
Dec-1 0
M ar-1 1
Ju n -1 1
Sep -1 1
Dec-1 1
M ar-1 2
Ju n -1 2
Sep -1 2
Dec-1 2
M ar-1 3
Ju n -1 3
Sep -1 3
Dec-1 3
M ar-1 4
Ju n -1 4
Sep -1 4
Dec-1 4
M ar-1 5
MODEL 5
Time
Act ual
Perio d
S ales
Jun-09
1
56,203
Sep-09
2
60,452
Dec-09
3
109,952
Mar-10
4
82,893
Jun-10
5
66,220
Sep-10
6
79,409
Dec-10
7
116,390
Mar-11
8
98,737
Jun-11
9
74,887
Sep-11
10
76,285
Dec-11
11
117,312
Mar-12
12
90,775
Jun-12
13
79,777
Sep-12
14
88,694
Dec-12
15
124,867
Mar-13
16
105,710
Jun-13
17
74,399
Sep-13
18
79,656
Dec-13
19
127,325
Mar-14
20
103,299
Jun-14
21
78,386
Sep-14
22
82,733
Dec-14
23
126,713
Mar-15
24
92,976
Jun- 15
S ep- 15
Dec- 15
Mar- 16
Qt r
RMS E
5,52 3

equations) (1 Mark)
Qtr
Forecas t
J un-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
M ar-16
43
44
Q1.6
Q1.6


Decompositional method (1/2 mark)

(Multiplicative) (full mark)
Qtr

equations) (1 Mark)
Forecast
Jun-15
Sep-15
Seasonality is captured with a seasonal

index. Multiply trended values by index to
get forecast.
Dec-15
Mar-16
45
46
MODEL 6
Time
Perio d
1
2
3
4
5
Act ual
S ales
56,203
60,452
109,952
82,893
66,220
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
79,409
116,390
98,737
74,887
76,285
117,312
90,775
79,777
88,694
124,867
105,710
74,399
79,656
127,325
103,299
78,386
82,733
126,713
Mar-15
24
92,976
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15 Ma rk e ti n g &Ma na ge men t
Mar-16
CMA
74,774
73,072
81,999
78,938
84,791
81,678
82,509
83,341
84,172
85,004
Predict ed
S ales
63,107
69,889
111,293
88,127
66,433
92,029
1 3 0 ,0 0 0
88,437
1 2 0 ,0 0 0
94,782
93,4581 1 0 ,0 0 0
88,9051 0 0 ,0 0 0
89,359 9 0 ,0 0 0
86,8208 0 ,0 0 0
98,3487 0 ,0 0 0
101,3146 0 ,0 0 0
96,914 5 0 ,0 0 0
101,7554 0 ,0 0 0
92,970
92,276
99,372
99,344
96,957
95,353
98,760
85,835
86,667
87,498
88,329
89,161
89,992
90,824
91,655
92,487
93,318
94,150
94,981
95,813
96,644
97,476
98,307
99,139
99,970
73,215
114,619
91,453
69,759
76,541
117,945
94,778
73,085
79,867
121,271
98,104
76,411
83,193
124,597
101,430
79,737
86,519
127,923
100,802
104,756
Indices Deseaso nal Trend
78,627
82,249
85,423
27953
3955
-18571
88,209
91,272
91,965
91,690
90,810
90,426
92,588
95,084
97,895
99,090
97,288
96,465
96,471
96,668
97,551
97,859
96,492
-12620
1 4 0 ,0 0 0
89,021
Q1.7
Actu al Sal es
P red i cted Sal es
Ju n -0 9
Sep -0 9
Dec-0 9
M ar-1 0
Ju n -1 0
Sep -1 0
Dec-1 0
M ar-1 1
Ju n -1 1
Sep -1 1
Dec-1 1
M ar-1 2
Ju n -1 2
Sep -1 2
Dec-1 2
M ar-1 3
Ju n -1 3
Sep -1 3
Dec-1 3
M ar-1 4
Ju n -1 4
Sep -1 4
Dec-1 4
M ar-1 5
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Qt r
RMSE
5,326

equations) (1 Mark)
Qtr
Forecas t
J un-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
M ar-16
47
48
8/06/2016
Q1.7
Q1.7


Decompositional Method (1/2 mark)

Additive. (1 mark)
Qtr

equations) (1 Mark)
Forecast
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Seasonality is captured with seasonal index.

Forecast by adding index to detrended
series.
Mar-16
49
50
Q1.8
Q1.8
Q1.8a: Which of the six models above would you

recommend as the better for forecasting purposes?
(Circle the better forecasting model)
Q1.8b: Other than the models shown above

(models 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6), what other TIME SERIES
models or approaches would be appropriate to
forecast the Sales for WaterCraft Inc.? (3 marks)
Model#
1.
2.
3.
Explain why: (1 Mark)
4.
5.
6.
51
Q2
Q2
The researcher has used a
model with the following
explanatory variables:
52
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.964
R Square
0.930
Adjusted R Square
0.919
Standard Error
9.835
Observations
32
Beer Production (Megalitres)

500
480
Beert = b0 + b1 Time+ b2
DumJun+ b3DumSep +
b4DumDec + e t
460
Time: Time index (1=Jun 2007

to 32=March 2015)
DumJun, DumSep and
DumDec = Dummy variables
for the June, September and
December quarters respectively
e t = random error term
380
ANOVA
440
420
Regression
Residual
Total
400
df
4
27
31
SS
34511
2612
37123
Coefficients
430.1
-0.1838
-37.3
-18.1
51.2
Standar
d Error
4.9
0.1897
5.0
4.9
4.9
MS
8628
97
F
89
Sig. F
3.7E-15
t Stat
88.25
-0.97
-7.54
-3.67
10.40
P-value
9.0E-35
3.4E-01
4.2E-08
1.0E-03
6.1E-11
54
360
53
Intercept
Time
DumJun
DumSep
DumDec
8/06/2016
Q2
Q2
Q2a: Explain briefly the possible reasons why the

researcher has used this model to estimate beer
production. (2 Marks)
Q2b: Within the regression class of models, what
other alternatives are available? (2 Marks)
Q2c: Briefly analyse the results (explain to a
layperson what the analysis says) and explain the
implications of the results? (2 Marks)
Q2d: What additional information would be useful to
diagnostically check the regression model? (4 Marks)
Q2e: Use the model as shown above to provide
forecasts for the next four quarters, i.e. June 2015 to
March 2016. (4 Marks)
Q2a: Explain briefly the possible reasons why the

researcher has used this model to estimate beer
production. (2 Marks)
Q2b: Within the regression class of models, what

other alternatives are available? (2 Marks)
55
56
Q2
Q2
Q2c: Briefly analyse the results (explain to a

layperson what the analysis says) and explain the
implications of the results? (2 Marks)
Q2d: What additional information would be useful

to diagnostically check the regression model?
(4 Marks)
57
58
Question 3:
Qualitative Forecasting
Q2
Q2e: Use the model as shown above to provide
forecasts for the next four quarters, i.e. June 2015
to March 2016. (4 Marks)
Qtr
Jun-15
33
Sep-15
34
Dec-15
35
Mar-16
36
Q3.1a: Explain briefly (as to a lay person) what is

meant by a Sales Force Composite method of
forecasting. (1 Mark)
Q3.1b: Briefly summarise the advantages and
disadvantages of the Sales Force Composite
method of forecasting. (2 Marks)
Forecast
Advantages of Sales Force

Composite
59
Disadvantages of Sales Force

Composite
60
10
8/06/2016
Q3.1
Q3

meant by a Sales Force Composite method of
forecasting. (1 Mark)


Composite

Composite
61
62
Q3.2
Q3.1

meant by the Delphi method of forecasting.
(1 Mark)
disadvantages of the Delphi method of forecasting.
(2 Marks)

(1 Mark)
Advantages Delphi Methods
Disadvantages of Delphi Methods
63
Q3.2


Composite

Composite
64
Q3.3 Delphi method

(1 Mark)
disadvantages of the Delphi method of forecasting.
(2 Marks)
Advantages Delphi Methods
65
Disadvantages of Delphi Methods
66
11
8/06/2016
Q3.1
Q3.2

disadvantages of the Delphi method of
forecasting. (2 Marks)

(1 Mark)

Composite

Composite
67
68
This years exam

Three (3) hours + 10 minutes reading time
Most will finish in less than two hours
This Years Final Exam

June 2016
40 MCQ (10%)
30 Short Answer (30%)
69
6 /8 /1 6
70
2016 Final Exam
Things to note
Very similar format as last year
This Exam is not a race against time

Key concepts are wanted rather than replication of
formulae
Take your time
But you need to understand what you are doing.

Some calculations are required, but none are difficult. (We
can us spreadsheets for those.)
90 minute exam with 180 minutes to complete
Understand key concepts
Read each question carefully

Answer each question in the space provided
succinctly
6 /8 /1 6
71
72
12
8/06/2016
No double Pass
Bring with you
You do not need to pass the exam

in order to pass the unit
1.
2.
3.
4.
Same as all other units at MQ

(with the exception of some Accounting units, where exam
pass is required by accreditation bodies.)
Pencils (2B) for MCQ

Pens (Dark Blue or Black) for Short Answers
Non-programmable calculator
Sheet of notes Cheat-sheet
One A4 sheet, typed or handwritten
with anything you like.
But if you really need to ask this question, then the answer
is probably, Yes, you will need to pass the exam in order
to pass this unit.
73
6 /8 /1 6
74
Questions about the exam?

Thank you!
We had fun
(We learned some new ideas
that may be useful)
We hope you had fun too.
Hume Winzar &
Nuraddeen Nuhu
75
76
13

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8/06/2016

BBA315 Business Forecasting

THE READING GAME

BBA315 Poll: GOP candidate prediction at 17 March 2016

BBA315: Likelihood of Buying New Smartphone

Certain, practically certain (99 in 100)

Almost sure (9 in 10)

Dont over-think the task

Double-check that you are in the group that you

No need to use multiple data series

Just use the given data series

(Table#2 from ABS wine domestic sales first column)

No need to find additional series

Dont waste your time

Remember, its a managerial

Some forecasting methods are obviously not

If you are a busy manager who wants a forecast, do

So dont even bother to use/test them

Place details, if needed, in an appendix.

Avoid screen capture

Answer the questions

Screen Capture rarely looks good,

Two major tasks:

unless youre using a VERY high-definition monitor.

MiniTab has options to

If your report does not support these two questions

NO need for screen capture!

download the Marking Guide

Dont write something that

Clea r review o f different

No rea so n for deciding o n

Cho o sing thewro ng data

No t clea r what method was

Clea r ex plication ofthe method

Co nsidera tion ofthe nature of

Fo cus o n the foreca sting

Unclea r where pro blem

Co nsidera tion ofthe nature of

Last Years Final Exam

One document only

Do not submit in a destination format

In Part B, do not write essays.

Download from Library:

Find the right exam:

Quarterly Sales data from the June quarter

Q1.1b: What factors

Q1.1a: Briefly describe

Q1.1a: Briefly describe the characteristics of the

Q1.1b: What factors may have caused the time

Q1.2a: What type of model is being used in the

OFFICE I FACULTY I DEPARTMENT

Q1.2c: Provide forecasts for the next four

Q1.2b: What steps has the modeller taken to

OFFICE I FACULTY I DEPARTMENT

Q1.3a: What type of model is being used in the

OFFICE I FACULTY I DEPARTMENT

Q1.3a: What type of model is being used in the

Q1.3b: What steps has the modeller taken to

Q1.3c: Provide forecasts for the next four

OFFICE I FACULTY I DEPARTMENT

OFFICE I FACULTY I DEPARTMENT

Q1.4a: What type of model is being used in the

Q1.4a: What type of model is being used in the

Q1.4b: What steps has the modeller taken to