Lifelong Learning

in 2040
The Next American Economy's Learning Series

Report By
Jacqueline Smith
Michael Meaney
August 2016

This report was made possible with the support of the JPMorgan Chase Foundation.

About the Authors

Mike Meaney is currently pursuing a PhD in Education at the University of Cambridge as a Gates
Cambridge Scholar. He earned his bachelors degree from the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown
University and his masters degree from the Mary Lou Fulton Teachers College at Arizona State
University. He previously served as Teach for America Corps Member in Phoenix, Arizona and as a
University Innovation Fellow at Arizona State University.
Jacqueline Smith currently serves as assistant vice president of University Initiatives at Arizona State
University where she launches university-wide initiatives that support Arizona State Universitys charter
and design aspirations. Jacqueline developed and now oversees over $60 million in grant-funded
projects related to leadership development, student success, workforce innovation and online learning
communities. She also cultivates early-career higher education professionals through an award-winning
university innovation fellowship program. She earned her bachelors degree in mathematics and
economics and law degree from Georgetown University.

Introduction
Michael Moe, Chief Executive Officer of GSV Capital, recently remarked at the annual ASU-GSV Summit that
you will no longer fill up your knowledge tank until age 25 and drive off through life; you will continuously
replenish it (Moe 2016). This paper examines why the American workforce needs an adaptive, lifelong learning
mindset. This paper also presents three design principles to facilitate lifelong learning at the learning enterprise
level. For decades experts have debated what to teach to prepare the workforce; we argue the true imperative is to
teach all students why lifelong learning matters and how to approach a lifetime of continuous learning.
The rapid rate of continuous technological progress will require a reconceptualization of why and how we learn.
The profusion of technology into every aspect of modern life is fundamentally changing the nature of the
American economy and the ways in which humans contribute to economic output. Acclaimed futurist and Google
engineer Ray Kurzweil expects the rate of technological progress to advance so rapidly that by 2030, a thousand
dollars of computer power will be a thousand times more powerful than a human brain. By 2040, this will
contribute to radical innovations in genetics, nanotechnology, and robotics that will transform health care,
manufacturing, agriculture, construction, and computer science (Kurzweil 2016). Some believe these innovations
could render the human contribution to the labor force as we know it obsolete (Wohlsen 2014).
A more likely scenario, however, is that technological progress will continue to raise the wage premium for
education. Analysis from the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce estimates that this
wage premium will continue to exacerbate economic inequality unless 20 million more Americans receive a
college education over the next 20 years (Carnavale and Rose 2015). The U.S. is only on pace to produce 8 million
new graduates in that time. How can we ensure that millions more Americans will succeed in the next American
economy?

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Lifelong Learning Skills

Americans must become lifelong learners. Learning enterprises (i.e., education institutions such as secondary
schools, colleges, universities, and new types of hybrid organizations) must help learners develop and nurture an
adaptive mindset toward continuous education. They must also help learners value and refine their uniquely
human qualities (i.e., curiosity, problem solving skills, creativity).
Learners without a secondary or postsecondary degree will have different continuous learning needs than those
with a postsecondary degree. Some learners will need remedial reading and arithmetic training. Others may need
language or scientific inquiry development. The skills for lifelong learning, however, will be the same for everyone.
All learners will need to embrace the continuously evolving nature of the skills required to succeed in the
workforce. Learners need to chart their own career and education pathway through informed decision-making
processes. Learners will also need to refine the skills that technology has yet to replicate (social skills, creativity,
and a strong curiosity for learning).

Continuously Evolving Skills

Technology alters how work is done, and the technical skills required for success are changing (Manyika, et al.
2013). Walk into any manufacturing facility and you will see fewer line workers running machines with their
hands and more technicians operating complex computer systems. As technological change causes economic
disruptions along shorter and shorter timeframes, the pace at which Americans are required to learn new skills
will continue to accelerate. As John Seely Brown, the co-chairman of the Deloitte Center for the Edge, explains,
Weve shifted from stable stocks of knowledge and an archived world to a world of information flows,
participation and states of confusion. Now we create as fast as we learn. The game is more complicated (The Aspen
Institute 2014).
To succeed in the next American economy, Americans must be equipped to embrace these changes. Lifelong
learners will adapt quickly in a shifting economic landscape by understanding changes in the market and
identifying educational experiences that respond to these changes. For computer science professionals, this might
mean understanding the evolutions and various utilities of Java, Objective C, and Python, among other
programming languages, including those yet to be created. Similarly, a communications professional should not
only know how to navigate the complex world of media relations in the broadcast and cable worlds but also
understand how that world is changing as a result of the blogosphere and social media platforms. Data science
professionals should know how to model phenomena using traditional statistics and economics, while also
knowing how to leverage big data (as well as the risks of doing so). Equipped with these adaptive mindsets,
Americans will become lifelong learners who appreciate the historical nature of the evolution of skills, and who
are prepared to keep pace as these trends continue into the future.
Beyond appreciating the evolving nature of skills, lifelong learners should know how to navigate their education
and career pathways, a competency known as career literacy. Jobs for the Future, a national nonprofit focused on
ensuring educational and economic equity for all, defines career literacy as providing instruction on how to apply
information from a participants personal Basic Economic Security Table and Self-Sufficiency Standard, local

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labor market information, assessment information, and other applicable local and national resources toward
making education plans and career choices that lead toward economic security (Jobs for the Future 2012).
Applying the tools of career literacy is an iterative process. Learners should continuously monitor changes in their
own industry and preemptively chart potential next steps in their career and education pathways.

Flexing Human Comparative Advantage

Technologys ubiquitous influences should trigger learners to leverage and hone their most human traits.
Learners must match their adaptive mindset (ability to pivot) with social skills and a continuous curiosity (desire
to learn).
While perhaps initially counterintuitive, technology is placing an ever-increasing premium on social skills: critical
thinking, problem solving, empathy, communication, and perseverance, among others (Thompson 2014). These
skills are a constant in a typhoon of technology-driven economic change. Some critics argue that the increased
mechanization of the economy will actually inhibit humans from finding employment, as robots take over larger
and larger swaths of the labor market. We believe, however, that the human contribution to economic output will
be more important than ever, and Americans should proactively prepare for this.
David Autor of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology contends that the profusion of technology in the world
of work has resulted in an increased emphasis on and premium for social skills (Autor 2014). This phenomenon
can be explained, in part, by an aphorism known as Polanyis Paradox. We can know more than we can tell... The
skill of a driver cannot be replaced by a thorough schooling in the theory of the motorcar; the knowledge I have of
my own body differs altogether from the knowledge of its physiology. Tacit knowledge of how the world works
exceeds our explicit knowledge of how the world works. Explicit knowledge can be modeled, learned, and
computerized. Tacit knowledge, however, is more difficult to comprehend and even harder to put into practice.
Autor himself explains this point clearly:
Human tasks that have proved most amenable to computerization are those that follow explicit, codifiable
proceduressuch as multiplication where computers now vastly exceed human labor in speed, quality,
accuracy, and cost efficiency. Tasks that have proved most vexing to automate are those that demand
flexibility, judgment, and common senseskills that we understand only tacitlyfor example, developing
a hypothesis or organizing a closet. In these tasks, computers are often less sophisticated than preschool
age children. The interplay between machine and human comparative advantage allows computers to
substitute for workers in performing routine, codifiable tasks while amplifying the comparative advantage
of workers in supplying problem solving skills, adaptability, and creativity (Autor 2014).
These ideas are further supported by Carl Frey and Michael Osborne (2013), economists from the University of
Oxford, who argue that while algorithms can increasingly manage highly complex, even non-routine tasks,
machines are less likely to accomplish tasks that require perception, manipulation and creative and social
intelligence.
For Americans to be successful in the next American economy, it is essential for them to develop highly sensitive
social skills that maximize their uniquely human contribution to economic output. The New York Times, The Wall
Street Journal, Marketwatch and others have reported on the declining job prospects and diminishing wages of
liberal arts majors (Fottrell 2014; Fuller 2015; Lewin 2013 & Schawbel 2014). Major efforts to steer students into

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Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics fields coincide with well-established reports on the declining
job prospects and diminishing wages of liberal arts majors (Lewin 2013, Fuller 2015 & Fottrell, 2014). These
trends have led many, like New York Times best author and workplace expert Dan Schawbel, to cast doubt on the
efficacy of a liberal arts education in the 21st century (Schawbel 2014). To the contrary, technology has made a
liberal arts education only more and more valuable. The Association of American Colleges and Universities
believe that the liberal arts are key to instilling social skills, and businesses are increasingly competing for workers
who demonstrate these social skills (Association of American Colleges and Universities 2016 & Perrault 2016). An
education that incorporates the humanistic perspective trains students for the ambiguity and complexity of
modern work, and is therefore more important than ever.
Beyond the economic realm, social skills will remain an indispensable salve to the tech-induced fragmentation of
modern society (a phenomenon discussed by Jonathan Haidt (2016), among many others). Some even contend
that our democracy could weaken as liberal arts and humanities majors continue to decline and our collective
stock of social skills is depleted. As our lives become more fragmented and technology-driven, it is more important
than ever to prioritize social skills. It is our humanistic values and competencies that will maintain a strong social
fabric and vibrant democracy. Social skills help ensure that lifelong learners can live out these values in society.
Perhaps the most crucial uniquely human skill of all for the next American economy will be curiosity. Tom
Stafford, a cognitive scientist at the University of Sheffield, explains it this way: Evolution made us the ultimate
learning machines, and the ultimate learning machines need a healthy dash of curiosity to help us take full
advantage of this learning capacity (Stafford 2012). The return on curiosity in the next American economy will
manifest in many ways. First, while machine learning and artificial intelligence have made big strides in this arena
in the past few years, robots are far from being able to self-generate an independent, intentional interest in a
question beyond what their programming allows (Johnson and Noorman 2013). Humans, on the contrary, have an
innate tendency to explore, probe, and question, an instinct dependent on no algorithm or logic. This instinct
must be nurtured. Secondly, as we discussed earlier, the pace of technological change is accelerating. The farreaching economic implications of this acceleration will require a constant acquisition of knowledge. Those who
are continuously curious and eager to embark on new learning opportunities will be able to meet these changes in
an adaptive, constructive manner.

Learning Enterprises
Institutions of learning have an imperative to innovate and adapt to nurture lifelong skills among more
Americans. The present-state design of most educational institutions is quite static. Educational institutions offer
time-bound learning experiences that in the secondary and postsecondary context are primarily associated with
career preparation and sometimes coupled with civic engagement and personal development. New technologies,
however, are changing the distribution methods of knowledge and the learning preferences of students, creating a
new dynamism in education. Exploding costs, low completion rates, and state divestment also threaten the
financial models of existing educational institutions.
Bo Cutter, Senior Fellow and Director of the Next American Economy Project at the Roosevelt Institute, argues
that a revolution in education is needed. Cutter emphasizes the need to facilitate more flexible models of learning
by leveraging technology and bundling learning experiences as micro-courses and micro-credentials (Cutter
2015).We suggest coupling these changes to the form of education with a new mindset of lifelong learning. We refer

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to education institutions that deliver this mindset of lifelong learning as learning enterprises.
Learning enterprises can more explicitly teach the ethos of lifelong learning through continuous, cyclical
education and career planning (as opposed to linear, step-wise planning). By developing flexible career and
education pathways tools, and coupling these tools with curricula that acknowledge the evolutionary nature of
skills, learning enterprises can enable students to adapt their own career and education plans to technological
change. Beyond nurturing an adaptive mindset and training students in traditional liberal arts and humanities to
develop their social skills, learning enterprises can design and develop infrastructure to help facilitate this
process.

Lifelong Learning: Infrastructure

Learning enterprises can design the infrastructure to make learning more appealing and accessible throughout
learners lifetimes. Such infrastructure could take many forms. We offer three design principles we anticipate will
be helpful to a broad range of learners.
1) Learning infrastructure must distill information from many sources.
Lifelong learners need smooth on-ramps with real-time data to help enhance decision-making as they move
through their education and career pathways. Americans regularly express great optimism regarding the potential
career impact of education. They express concern and confusion, however, with regard to how to achieve this
impact. Education platforms like Skillful, a project led by the Markle Foundation in partnership with Arizona
State University (ASU), LinkedIn, and edX, help address this information asymmetry. ASU designed the online
platform, which provides an on-ramp for college "stop outs"individuals with some college who were unable to
complete a degree or certificateseeking to upskill and re-career. The Skillful platform leverages best-in-class
tools from LinkedIn, edX, and Burning Glass to provide users with real-time information on existing employment
opportunities in their local geographies, as well as direct links to the education content that will prepare them for
these careers.
Me3 is another example of an early stage on-ramp and data-hub that ASU is testing with high school students.
Me3 is a gamified college advising tool that helps students determine their interests and select an education and
career pathway. Then, students can work backwards to plan their high school class selections, which helps the
students to see the relevance and significance of school. Furthermore, Me3 feels like a familiar social media
experience; students build a profile and track their progress using their smart phones. The tool is aligned to the
Holland Codes/RIASEC and leverages open jobs data.i It provides students who may otherwise not know what
courses to take or career to pursue an interactive platform powered by relevant data and information to help guide
their decision-making.
2) Learning infrastructure must strike a balance between technology-enhanced and human-supported
interventions. Platforms must be coupled with human navigation support to assist lifelong learners at times when
technology alone is insufficient. While technology will continue to improve its ability to advise and counsel,
several crucial advising roles fall squarely in Polanyis Paradox.

The Holland Codes or the Holland Occupational Themes (RIASEC), is a theory of careers and vocational choice based upon personality types. It was
developed by the psychologist John L. Holland. Four additional studies refined and provided support for the validity of Holland's (1997) RIASEC (Realistic,
Investigative, Artistic, Social, Enterprising, and Conventional) typology.

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For example, while the Skillful platform leverages high-tech tools, there is a corresponding high-touch
element: Users who need additional help will be able to call a career coach on the phone or visit with a workforce
navigation expert in person. Similarly, the Starbucks College Achievement Plan, which offers all part- and fulltime benefits-eligible U.S. employees full tuition coverage to earn an ASU bachelors degree, relies on both
technology and human support systems. Starbucks Partners (what Starbucks calls all its employees) receive
support from a dedicated team of coaches and advisors as well as round-the-clock tutoring support services on a
variety of subjects. Employees interested in enrolling in the program have access to customized onboarding
support to help sift through career and workforce pathways aligned to more than 50 undergraduate degrees
through ASU's research-driven and top-ranked program, delivered online. Additionally, coaches and advisors help
the employees navigate financial aid and academic preparedness questions.
3) Learning enterprises must reimagine and customize funding models. Colleges and universities currently
have a business model based on the credit hour, which fails the institutions and students alike. The credit hour
system disincentivizes colleges and universities from accepting credits from other institutions because the way
that credit hours are defined can vary widely, and this in turn hurts transfer students and students looking to
engage in stackable credential educational pathways. Seat-time, a unit commonly used to measure the credit
hour, is difficult to measure for an online student or in a hybrid learning context. Competency-based learning,
where students learn at their own pace, is also not amenable to the credit hour system (Fain 2012). Thus, the
credit hour will not have as much significance in a lifelong learning context because learners will need more
flexibility.
The funding model for the Starbucks College Achievement Plan was customized to remove the students financial
burden. It is an example of how learning enterprises can advance price restructuring and diversify who pays for
education. As Jon McGee argued in Breakpoint: The Changing Marketplace for Higher Education:
Though typically framed, incorrectly, as doing less with less (an almost completely unappealing market
proposition) or more with less (an unattainable hope in many cases), in the face of change, contraction is
better approached as requiring that we do differently with less which puts the premium on gaining the
greatest effect possible from any given level of resources (McGee 2015).
Examples of how other learning enterprises and systems have reimagined their pricing structures will inform new
designs. The Australian government, for example, bases the prices of its degrees on an index derived from the
degrees market value and Australias national priorities. Students also face different pricing options for degrees
based on major selected, and some students are able to access income-contingent loans. This differentiates the
cost of higher education in a way that the American system does not (Dillard 2016). Federal tax credits could also
stimulate further employer investment in lifelong learning, from basic literacy and English language learning all
the way to advanced graduate studies. The Center for American Progress proposed making the Lifetime Learning
Tax Credita tax credit of up to $2,000available to a far wider swath of the adult population, which could also
stimulate more lifelong learning (Bosworth 2007).
Learning enterprises will contribute significantly to lifelong learning infrastructure by investing in high-quality
tools and resources that assist students in navigating education and career pathways. As funding models become
more flexible, learning enterprises must move beyond stagnant funding regimes in order to provide more students
access to education in a manner that is most responsive to the students learning needs and financial situations.

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Conclusion
If Americans move through their careers fully cognizant of the technical skills they must continuously acquire and
refine, secure in the sophisticated social skills required for an ambiguous workplace, and inspired by an insatiable
curiosity for learning, they will be well-prepared for the economy of 2040. With these skills, Americans will be
able to leverage technological disruption to their own benefit and do so throughout their lives, which will allow
them to succeed in an economy that is constantly evolving.

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