New Voter Analysis Methodology

The 8 states included in the new voter analysis were primarily chosen because of their
significance to the 2016 general election and then narrowed due to data coverage constraints
in several states. The analysis began with the 13 states designated by NBC News as
Battleground States, including: Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, New
Hampshire, Virginia, Florida, Michigan, Iowa, Nevada, Colorado, and Ohio.
In states that conduct caucuses (Colorado, Iowa and Nevada), no vote history is recorded, so
analysis on new voters could not be completed. Three other states were excluded because of
data limitations. As of August 30, 2016, Arizona had not updated their states voter file with
2016 primary vote history. Wisconsin does not collect information about voters party affiliation
or which partisan primary voters cast ballots in, and was therefore excluded from the analysis.
New Hampshire was excluded from the breakouts of new voters by age and gender because the
file does not yet contain sufficient information on new voters.
The analysis focused on the voting histories of 2016 primary voters. If a voter did not have any
other vote history information on their record, they were counted as a new voter. If a 2016
primary voter had participated in only a prior general election in 2008, 2012 or 2014, they were
counted as general election only voters.
If 2016 primary voters cast ballots in at least one of these general elections and at least one
presidential or state primary in 2008, 2010, 2012 or 2014, they were designated as prior
primary and general election voters. For a select few voters who had histories of voting in
previous primary elections but not general elections, they were designated as previous primary
only voters.
In all states except Florida, the analysis relied on data that indicated which primary
Democratic or Republicannew voters cast ballots in. In Florida, a closed primary that does not
provide information about which primary a voters ballot was cast for, party affiliation was used
to determine whether a voter turned out for a Democratic or Republican primary.

What is a Voter File?

The Data Analytics Lab at NBC News utilizes voter file information provided by TargetSmarta
leading provider of political data and analytic services for a number of organizations and
campaigns. TargetSmart builds and maintains a high-quality database of voter registration files
from all 50 states plus the District of Columbia, acquired from state and county sources.
Aggregated together, the national file includes more than 190 million registered voters. This
data allows experts at the Data Analytics Lab to conduct independent, non-partisan analysis on
voting behavior and turnout historically.
Voter files differ state to state, both in terms of their formats as well as the data fields they
contain. In general, voter files contain basic demographic information about registered persons
in each state such as their gender and age. Vote history information is also provided but does
not contain any details about who an individual voted for.
Though TargetSmart expertly aggregates and updates their national file for easier, faster
analysis, the timeliness and comprehensiveness of the data provided varies by state. For
example, while some states such as Florida provide updated lists of their voter registration
records almost daily during the final months of presidential election years, other states provide
far fewer updates.
In some states such as North Carolina, Florida and Georgia, racially-identifying information is
collected and disseminated as part of ones voter registration record. In most states, however,
this information is unavailable.
Voter file data is considered especially valuable because it is an actual record of every person
who turned out in an election. While survey research has traditionally been a source of valuable
voter and electorate information, it is most useful for understanding the opinions, attitudes and
motivations of voters. Voter registration data is a more comprehensive and precise source of
information regarding voter turnout as well as the demographic composition of the electorate.
Analysts at the NBC News Data Analytics Lab will utilize TargetSmart data throughout the 2016
election cycle.