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How Technology Is Destroying Jobs

How Technology Is Destroying Jobs

Automation is reducing the need for people in many jobs. Are we facing a future of stagnant

income and worsening inequality ?

by David Rotman

June 12, 2013

iven his calm and reasoned academic demeanor, it is easy to miss

justhowprovocativeErikBrynjolfssonscontentionreallyis.

Brynjolfsson,aprofessorattheMITSloanSchoolofManagement,andhis
collaboratorandcoauthorAndrewMcAfeehavebeenarguingforthelast

yearandahalfthatimpressiveadvancesincomputertechnologyfrom
improvedindustrialroboticstoautomatedtranslationservicesarelargely
behindthesluggishemploymentgrowthofthelast10to15years.Even
moreominousforworkers,theMITacademicsforeseedismalprospectsfor
manytypesofjobsasthesepowerfulnewtechnologiesareincreasingly
adoptednotonlyinmanufacturing,clerical,andretailworkbutin
professionssuchaslaw,nancialservices,education,andmedicine.

Thatrobots,automation,andsoftwarecanreplacepeoplemightseem
obvioustoanyonewhosworkedinautomotivemanufacturingorasatravel
agent.ButBrynjolfssonandMcAfeesclaimismoretroublingand
controversial.Theybelievethatrapidtechnologicalchangehasbeen
destroyingjobsfasterthanitiscreatingthem,contributingtothestagnation
ofmedianincomeandthegrowthofinequalityintheUnitedStates.And,
theysuspect,somethingsimilarishappeninginothertechnologically
advancedcountries.

Perhapsthemostdamningpieceofevidence,accordingtoBrynjolfsson,isa
chartthatonlyaneconomistcouldlove.Ineconomics,productivitythe
amountofeconomicvaluecreatedforagivenunitofinput,suchasanhour
oflaborisacrucialindicatorofgrowthandwealthcreation.Itisameasure
ofprogress.OnthechartBrynjolfssonlikestoshow,separatelinesrepresent
productivityandtotalemploymentintheUnitedStates.Foryearsafter
WorldWarII,thetwolinescloselytrackedeachother,withincreasesinjobs
correspondingtoincreasesinproductivity.Thepatternisclear:as
businessesgeneratedmorevaluefromtheirworkers,thecountryasawhole

becamericher,whichfueledmoreeconomicactivityandcreatedevenmore
jobs.Then,beginningin2000,thelinesdiverge;productivitycontinuesto
riserobustly,butemploymentsuddenlywilts.By2011,asignicantgap
appearsbetweenthetwolines,showingeconomicgrowthwithnoparallel
increaseinjobcreation.BrynjolfssonandMcAfeecallitthegreat
decoupling.AndBrynjolfssonsaysheiscondentthattechnologyisbehind
boththehealthygrowthinproductivityandtheweakgrowthinjobs.

Itsastartlingassertionbecauseitthreatensthefaiththatmanyeconomists
placeintechnologicalprogress.BrynjolfssonandMcAfeestillbelievethat
technologyboostsproductivityandmakessocietieswealthier,buttheythink
thatitcanalsohaveadarkside:technologicalprogressiseliminatingthe
needformanytypesofjobsandleavingthetypicalworkerworseothan
before.
Brynjolfssoncanpointtoasecondchartindicatingthatmedian
incomeisfailingtoriseevenasthegrossdomesticproductsoars.Itsthe
greatparadoxofourera,hesays.Productivityisatrecordlevels,
innovationhasneverbeenfaster,andyetatthesametime,wehaveafalling
medianincomeandwehavefewerjobs.Peoplearefallingbehindbecause
technologyisadvancingsofastandourskillsandorganizationsarent
keepingup.

BrynjolfssonandMcAfeearenotLuddites.Indeed,theyaresometimes
accusedofbeingtoooptimisticabouttheextentandspeedofrecentdigital
advances.BrynjolfssonsaystheybeganwritingRaceAgainsttheMachine,
the2011bookinwhichtheylaidoutmuchoftheirargument,becausethey
wantedtoexplaintheeconomicbenetsofthesenewtechnologies
(Brynjolfssonspentmuchofthe1990ssningoutevidencethat
informationtechnologywasboostingratesofproductivity).Butitbecame
cleartothemthatthesametechnologiesmakingmanyjobssafer,easier,and
moreproductivewerealsoreducingthedemandformanytypesofhuman
workers.

Anecdotalevidencethatdigitaltechnologiesthreatenjobsis,ofcourse,
everywhere.Robotsandadvancedautomationhavebeencommoninmany
typesofmanufacturingfordecades.IntheUnitedStatesandChina,the
worldsmanufacturingpowerhouses,fewerpeopleworkinmanufacturing

todaythanin1997,thanksatleastinparttoautomation.Modern
automotiveplants,manyofwhichweretransformedbyindustrialrobotics
inthe1980s,routinelyusemachinesthatautonomouslyweldandpaint
bodypartstasksthatwereoncehandledbyhumans.Mostrecently,
industrialrobotslikeRethinkRoboticsBaxter(seeTheBlueCollarRobot,
May/June2013),moreexibleandfarcheaperthantheirpredecessors,have
beenintroducedtoperformsimplejobsforsmallmanufacturersinavariety
ofsectors.ThewebsiteofaSiliconValleystartupcalledIndustrial
Perceptionfeaturesavideooftherobotithasdesignedforusein
warehousespickingupandthrowingboxeslikeaboredelephant.Andsuch
sensationsasGooglesdriverlesscarsuggestwhatautomationmightbeable
toaccomplishsomedaysoon.

Alessdramaticchange,butonewithapotentiallyfarlargerimpacton
employment,istakingplaceinclericalworkandprofessionalservices.
TechnologiesliketheWeb,articialintelligence,bigdata,andimproved
analyticsallmadepossiblebytheeverincreasingavailabilityofcheap
computingpowerandstoragecapacityareautomatingmanyroutinetasks.
Countlesstraditionalwhitecollarjobs,suchasmanyinthepostoceand
incustomerservice,havedisappeared.W.BrianArthur,avisitingresearcher
attheXeroxPaloAltoResearchCentersintelligencesystemslabanda
formereconomicsprofessoratStanfordUniversity,callsittheautonomous
economy.Itsfarmoresubtlethantheideaofrobotsandautomationdoing
humanjobs,hesays:itinvolvesdigitalprocessestalkingtootherdigital
processesandcreatingnewprocesses,enablingustodomanythingswith
fewerpeopleandmakingyetotherhumanjobsobsolete.

Itisthisonslaughtofdigitalprocesses,saysArthur,thatprimarilyexplains
howproductivityhasgrownwithoutasignicantincreaseinhumanlabor.
And,hesays,digitalversionsofhumanintelligenceareincreasingly
replacingeventhosejobsoncethoughttorequirepeople.Itwillchange
everyprofessioninwayswehavebarelyseenyet,hewarns.

McAfee,associatedirectoroftheMITCenterforDigitalBusinessatthe
SloanSchoolofManagement,speaksrapidlyandwithacertainaweashe
describesadvancessuchasGooglesdriverlesscar.Still,despitehisobvious

enthusiasmforthetechnologies,hedoesntseetherecentlyvanishedjobs
comingback.Thepressureonemploymentandtheresultinginequalitywill
onlygetworse,hesuggests,asdigitaltechnologiesfueledwithenough
computingpower,data,andgeekscontinuetheirexponentialadvances
overthenextseveraldecades.Iwouldliketobewrong,hesays,butwhen
allthesesciencectiontechnologiesaredeployed,whatwillweneedallthe
peoplefor?

New Economy?

Butarethesenewtechnologiesreallyresponsibleforadecadeoflackluster
jobgrowth?Manylaboreconomistssaythedataare,atbest,farfrom
conclusive.Severalotherplausibleexplanations,includingeventsrelatedto
globaltradeandthenancialcrisesoftheearlyandlate2000s,could
accountfortherelativeslownessofjobcreationsincetheturnofthe
century.Noonereallyknows,saysRichardFreeman,alaboreconomistat
HarvardUniversity.Thatsbecauseitsverydiculttoextricatetheeects
oftechnologyfromothermacroeconomiceects,hesays.Buthesskeptical
thattechnologywouldchangeawiderangeofbusinesssectorsfastenough
toexplainrecentjobnumbers.

Employment trends have polarized the workforce and hollowed out


the middle class.

DavidAutor,aneconomistatMITwhohasextensivelystudiedthe
connectionsbetweenjobsandtechnology,alsodoubtsthattechnologycould
accountforsuchanabruptchangeintotalemployment.Therewasagreat
saginemploymentbeginningin2000.Somethingdidchange,hesays.But
nooneknowsthecause.Moreover,hedoubtsthatproductivityhas,infact,
risenrobustlyintheUnitedStatesinthepastdecade(economistscan
disagreeaboutthatstatisticbecausetherearedierentwaysofmeasuring
andweighingeconomicinputsandoutputs).Ifhesright,itraisesthe
possibilitythatpoorjobgrowthcouldbesimplyaresultofasluggish
economy.Thesuddenslowdowninjobcreationisabigpuzzle,hesays,
buttheresnotalotofevidenceitslinkedtocomputers.

Tobesure,Autorsays,computertechnologiesarechangingthetypesofjobs
available,andthosechangesarenotalwaysforthegood.Atleastsincethe
1980s,hesays,computershaveincreasinglytakenoversuchtasksas
bookkeeping,clericalwork,andrepetitiveproductionjobsinmanufacturing
allofwhichtypicallyprovidedmiddleclasspay.Atthesametime,higher
payingjobsrequiringcreativityandproblemsolvingskills,oftenaidedby
computers,haveproliferated.Sohavelowskilljobs:demandhasincreased
forrestaurantworkers,janitors,homehealthaides,andothersdoingservice
workthatisnearlyimpossibletoautomate.Theresult,saysAutor,hasbeen
apolarizationoftheworkforceandahollowingoutofthemiddleclass
somethingthathasbeenhappeninginnumerousindustrializedcountries
forthelastseveraldecades.Butthatisverydierentfromsaying
technologyisaectingthetotalnumberofjobs,headds.Jobscanchangea
lotwithouttherebeinghugechangesinemploymentrates.

Whatsmore,eveniftodaysdigitaltechnologiesareholdingdownjob
creation,historysuggeststhatitismostlikelyatemporary,albeitpainful,
shock;asworkersadjusttheirskillsandentrepreneurscreateopportunities
basedonthenewtechnologies,thenumberofjobswillrebound.That,at
least,hasalwaysbeenthepattern.Thequestion,then,iswhethertodays
computingtechnologieswillbedierent,creatinglongterminvoluntary
unemployment.

AtleastsincetheIndustrialRevolutionbeganinthe1700s,improvements
intechnologyhavechangedthenatureofworkanddestroyedsometypesof
jobsintheprocess.In1900,41percentofAmericansworkedinagriculture;
by2000,itwasonly2percent.Likewise,theproportionofAmericans
employedinmanufacturinghasdroppedfrom30percentinthepostWorld
WarIIyearstoaround10percenttodaypartlybecauseofincreasing
automation,especiallyduringthe1980s.

Whilesuchchangescanbepainfulforworkerswhoseskillsnolongermatch
theneedsofemployers,LawrenceKatz,aHarvardeconomist,saysthatno
historicalpatternshowstheseshiftsleadingtoanetdecreaseinjobsoveran
extendedperiod.Katzhasdoneextensiveresearchonhowtechnological

advanceshaveaectedjobsoverthelastfewcenturiesdescribing,for
example,howhighlyskilledartisansinthemid19thcenturyweredisplaced
bylowerskilledworkersinfactories.Whileitcantakedecadesforworkers
toacquiretheexpertiseneededfornewtypesofemployment,hesays,we
neverhaverunoutofjobs.Thereisnolongtermtrendofeliminatingwork
forpeople.Overthelongterm,employmentratesarefairlystable.People
havealwaysbeenabletocreatenewjobs.Peoplecomeupwithnewthingsto
do.

Still,Katzdoesntdismissthenotionthatthereissomethingdierentabout
todaysdigitaltechnologiessomethingthatcouldaectanevenbroader
rangeofwork.Thequestion,hesays,iswhethereconomichistorywillserve
asausefulguide.Willthejobdisruptionscausedbytechnologybe
temporaryastheworkforceadapts,orwillweseeasciencectionscenario
inwhichautomatedprocessesandrobotswithsuperhumanskillstakeover
abroadswathofhumantasks?ThoughKatzexpectsthehistoricalpattern
tohold,itisgenuinelyaquestion,hesays.Iftechnologydisruptsenough,
whoknowswhatwillhappen?

Dr. Watson

TogetsomeinsightintoKatzsquestion,itisworthlookingathowtodays
mostadvancedtechnologiesarebeingdeployedinindustry.Thoughthese
technologieshaveundoubtedlytakenoversomehumanjobs,nding
evidenceofworkersbeingdisplacedbymachinesonalargescaleisnotall
thateasy.Onereasonitisdiculttopinpointthenetimpactonjobsisthat
automationisoftenusedtomakehumanworkersmoreecient,not
necessarilytoreplacethem.Risingproductivitymeansbusinessescandothe
sameworkwithfeweremployees,butitcanalsoenablethebusinessesto
expandproductionwiththeirexistingworkers,andeventoenternew
markets.

TakethebrightorangeKivarobot,aboontoedglingecommerce
companies.CreatedandsoldbyKivaSystems,astartupthatwasfoundedin
2002andboughtbyAmazonfor$775millionin2012,therobotsare
designedtoscurryacrosslargewarehouses,fetchingracksoforderedgoods
anddeliveringtheproductstohumanswhopackagetheorders.InKivas

largedemonstrationwarehouseandassemblyfacilityatitsheadquarters
outsideBoston,eetsofrobotsmoveaboutwithseeminglyendlessenergy:
somenewlyassembledmachinesperformteststoprovetheyrereadytobe
shippedtocustomersaroundtheworld,whileotherswaittodemonstrateto
avisitorhowtheycanalmostinstantlyrespondtoanelectronicorderand
bringthedesiredproducttoaworkersstation.

AwarehouseequippedwithKivarobotscanhandleuptofourtimesas
manyordersasasimilarunautomatedwarehouse,whereworkersmight
spendasmuchas70percentoftheirtimewalkingabouttoretrievegoods.
(Coincidentallyornot,AmazonboughtKivasoonafterapressreport
revealedthatworkersatoneoftheretailersgiantwarehousesoftenwalked
morethan10milesaday.)

Despitethelaborsavingpotentialoftherobots,MickMountz,Kivas
founderandCEO,sayshedoubtsthemachineshaveputmanypeopleoutof
workorwilldosointhefuture.Foronething,hesays,mostofKivas
customersareecommerceretailers,someofthemgrowingsorapidlythey
canthirepeoplefastenough.Bymakingdistributionoperationscheaper
andmoreecient,therobotictechnologyhashelpedmanyoftheseretailers
surviveandevenexpand.BeforefoundingKiva,MountzworkedatWebvan,
anonlinegrocerydeliverycompanythatwasoneofthe1990sdotcomeras
mostinfamousameouts.Helikestoshowthenumbersdemonstratingthat
Webvanwasdoomedfromthestart;a$100ordercostthecompany$120to
ship.Mountzspointisclear:somethingasmundaneasthecostofmaterials
handlingcanconsignanewbusinesstoanearlydeath.Automationcan
solvethatproblem.

Meanwhile,Kivaitselfishiring.Orangeballoonsthesamecolorasthe
robotshoverovermultiplecubiclesinitssprawlingoce,signalingthat
theoccupantsarrivedwithinthelastmonth.Mostofthesenewemployees
aresoftwareengineers:whiletherobotsarethecompanysposterboys,its
lesserknowninnovationslieinthecomplexalgorithmsthatguidethe
robotsmovementsanddeterminewhereinthewarehouseproductsare
stored.Thesealgorithmshelpmakethesystemadaptable.Itcanlearn,for
example,thatacertainproductisseldomordered,soitshouldbestoredina
remotearea.

Thoughadvanceslikethesesuggesthowsomeaspectsofworkcouldbe
subjecttoautomation,theyalsoillustratethathumansstillexcelatcertain
tasksforexample,packagingvariousitemstogether.Manyofthe
traditionalproblemsinroboticssuchashowtoteachamachineto
recognizeanobjectas,say,achairremainlargelyintractableandare
especiallydiculttosolvewhentherobotsarefreetomoveabouta
relativelyunstructuredenvironmentlikeafactoryoroce.

Techniquesusingvastamountsofcomputationalpowerhavegonealong
waytowardhelpingrobotsunderstandtheirsurroundings,butJohn
Leonard,aprofessorofengineeringatMITandamemberofitsComputer
ScienceandArticialIntelligenceLaboratory(CSAIL),saysmanyfamiliar
dicultiesremain.Partofmeseesacceleratingprogress;theotherpartof
meseesthesameoldproblems,hesays.Iseehowharditistodoanything
withrobots.Thebigchallengeisuncertainty.Inotherwords,peoplearestill
farbetteratdealingwithchangesintheirenvironmentandreactingto
unexpectedevents.

Forthatreason,Leonardsays,itiseasiertoseehowrobotscouldworkwith
humansthanontheirowninmanyapplications.Peopleandrobots
workingtogethercanhappenmuchmorequicklythanrobotssimply
replacinghumans,hesays.Thatsnotgoingtohappeninmylifetimeata
massivescale.Thesemiautonomoustaxiwillstillhaveadriver.

Oneofthefriendlier,moreexiblerobotsmeanttoworkwithhumansis
RethinksBaxter.ThecreationofRodneyBrooks,thecompanysfounder,
Baxterneedsminimaltrainingtoperformsimpletaskslikepickingup
objectsandmovingthemtoabox.Itsmeantforuseinrelativelysmall
manufacturingfacilitieswhereconventionalindustrialrobotswouldcosttoo
muchandposetoomuchdangertoworkers.Theidea,saysBrooks,isto
havetherobotstakecareofdull,repetitivejobsthatnoonewantstodo.

ItshardnottoinstantlylikeBaxter,inpartbecauseitseemssoeagerto
please.Theeyebrowsonitsdisplayrisequizzicallywhenitspuzzled;its
armssubmissivelyandgentlyretreatwhenbumped.Askedabouttheclaim
thatsuchadvancedindustrialrobotscouldeliminatejobs,Brooksanswers
simplythathedoesntseeitthatway.Robots,hesays,canbetofactory
workersaselectricdrillsaretoconstructionworkers:Itmakesthemmore
productiveandecient,butitdoesnttakejobs.

ThemachinescreatedatKivaandRethinkhavebeencleverlydesignedand
builttoworkwithpeople,takingoverthetasksthatthehumansoftendont
wanttodoorarentespeciallygoodat.Theyarespecicallydesignedto
enhancetheseworkersproductivity.Anditshardtoseehoweventhese
increasinglysophisticatedrobotswillreplacehumansinmost
manufacturingandindustrialjobsanytimesoon.Butclericalandsome
professionaljobscouldbemorevulnerable.Thatsbecausethemarriageof
articialintelligenceandbigdataisbeginningtogivemachinesamore
humanlikeabilitytoreasonandtosolvemanynewtypesofproblems.

Even if the economy is only going through a transition, it is an


extremely painful one for many.

InthetonynorthernsuburbsofNewYorkCity,IBMResearchispushing
supersmartcomputingintotherealmsofsuchprofessionsasmedicine,
nance,andcustomerservice.IBMseortshaveresultedinWatson,a
computersystembestknownforbeatinghumanchampionsonthegame
showJeopardy!in2011.ThatversionofWatsonnowsitsinacornerofa
largedatacenterattheresearchfacilityinYorktownHeights,markedwitha
glowingplaquecommemoratingitsglorydays.Meanwhile,researchers
therearealreadytestingnewgenerationsofWatsoninmedicine,wherethe
technologycouldhelpphysiciansdiagnosediseaseslikecancer,evaluate
patients,andprescribetreatments.

IBMlikestocallitcognitivecomputing.Essentially,Watsonusesarticial

intelligencetechniques,advancednaturallanguageprocessingand
analytics,andmassiveamountsofdatadrawnfromsourcesspecictoa
givenapplication(inthecaseofhealthcare,thatmeansmedicaljournals,
textbooks,andinformationcollectedfromthephysiciansorhospitalsusing
thesystem).Thankstotheseinnovativetechniquesandhugeamountsof
computingpower,itcanquicklycomeupwithadviceforexample,the
mostrecentandrelevantinformationtoguideadoctorsdiagnosisand
treatmentdecisions.

Despitethesystemsremarkableabilitytomakesenseofallthatdata,its
stillearlydaysforDr.Watson.Whileithasrudimentaryabilitiestolearn
fromspecicpatternsandevaluatedierentpossibilities,itisfarfrom
havingthetypeofjudgmentandintuitionaphysicianoftenneeds.ButIBM
hasalsoannounceditwillbeginsellingWatsonsservicestocustomer
supportcallcenters,whichrarelyrequirehumanjudgmentthatsquiteso
sophisticated.IBMsayscompanieswillrentanupdatedversionofWatson
foruseasacustomerserviceagentthatrespondstoquestionsfrom
consumers;ithasalreadysignedonseveralbanks.Automationisnothing
newincallcenters,ofcourse,butWatsonsimprovedcapacityfornatural
languageprocessinganditsabilitytotapintoalargeamountofdatasuggest
thatthissystemcouldspeakplainlywithcallers,oeringthemspecic
adviceoneventechnicalandcomplexquestions.Itseasytoseeitreplacing
manyhumanholdoutsinitsneweld.

Digital Losers

Thecontentionthatautomationanddigitaltechnologiesarepartly
responsiblefortodayslackofjobshasobviouslytouchedarawnervefor
manyworriedabouttheirownemployment.Butthisisonlyone
consequenceofwhatBrynjolfssonandMcAfeeseeasabroadertrend.The
rapidaccelerationoftechnologicalprogress,theysay,hasgreatlywidened
thegapbetweeneconomicwinnersandloserstheincomeinequalitiesthat
manyeconomistshaveworriedaboutfordecades.Digitaltechnologiestend
tofavorsuperstars,theypointout.Forexample,someonewhocreatesa
computerprogramtoautomatetaxpreparationmightearnmillionsor
billionsofdollarswhileeliminatingtheneedforcountlessaccountants.

Newtechnologiesareencroachingintohumanskillsinawaythatis
completelyunprecedented,McAfeesays,andmanymiddleclassjobsare
rightinthebullseye;evenrelativelyhighskillworkineducation,medicine,
andlawisaected.Themiddleseemstobegoingaway,headds.Thetop
andbottomareclearlygettingfartherapart.Whiletechnologymightbe
onlyonefactor,saysMcAfee,ithasbeenanunderappreciatedone,anditis
likelytobecomeincreasinglysignicant.

NoteveryoneagreeswithBrynjolfssonandMcAfeesconclusions
particularlythecontentionthattheimpactofrecenttechnologicalchange
couldbedierentfromanythingseenbefore.Butitshardtoignoretheir
warningthattechnologyiswideningtheincomegapbetweenthetechsavvy
andeveryoneelse.Andeveniftheeconomyisonlygoingthrougha
transitionsimilartothoseitsenduredbefore,itisanextremelypainfulone
formanyworkers,andthatwillhavetobeaddressedsomehow.Harvards
KatzhasshownthattheUnitedStatesprosperedintheearly1900sinpart
becausesecondaryeducationbecameaccessibletomanypeopleatatime
whenemploymentinagriculturewasdryingup.Theresult,atleastthrough
the1980s,wasanincreaseineducatedworkerswhofoundjobsinthe
industrialsectors,boostingincomesandreducinginequality.Katzslesson:
painfullongtermconsequencesforthelaborforcedonotfollowinevitably
fromtechnologicalchanges.

Brynjolfssonhimselfsayshesnotreadytoconcludethateconomicprogress
andemploymenthavedivergedforgood.Idontknowwhetherwecan
recover,butIhopewecan,hesays.Butthat,hesuggests,willdependon
recognizingtheproblemandtakingstepssuchasinvestingmoreinthe
trainingandeducationofworkers.

Wewereluckyandsteadilyrisingproductivityraisedallboatsformuchof
the20thcentury,hesays.Manypeople,especiallyeconomists,jumpedto
theconclusionthatwasjustthewaytheworldworked.Iusedtosaythatif
wetookcareofproductivity,everythingelsewouldtakecareofitself;itwas
thesinglemostimportanteconomicstatistic.Butthatsnolongertrue.He
adds,Itsoneofthedirtysecretsofeconomics:technologyprogressdoes
growtheeconomyandcreatewealth,butthereisnoeconomiclawthatsays
everyonewillbenet.Inotherwords,intheraceagainstthemachine,some
arelikelytowinwhilemanyotherslose.

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