To:

Interested Parties

From: GBA Strategies

Date: September 6, 2016

Poisonous Atmosphere for Republicans Endangers GOP Hold on KS-3

The extreme unpopularity of Governor Sam Brownback and Presidential nominee Donald
Trump in Kansas 3rd Congressional District puts Republican Congressman Kevin Yoder in
danger of losing a seat he has comfortably won in previous elections. While Yoder still retains a
lead against his lesser-known Democratic opponent, small business owner Jay Sidie, there is a
real path for the challenger that puts this district into play.1
This district is emblematic of Republicans struggles this year with college-educated
votersespecially in suburban areas. Kansas 3rd CD has a very high share of voters with a
college degree (61 percent); this group has very negative impressions of Donald Trump and even
worse impressions of Brownback, driving dissatisfaction with the Republican brand.
Even in this poisonous environment for Republicans, this election is no slam dunk for
Sidie and the Democrats. Republicans retain a significant registration advantage here, and
Democrats will need to seriously commit the resources needed to overcome that gap as well as
Yoders financial edge. But there is no question that Republicans will need to scramble to defend
a district that they considered safe only weeks ago.

Republicans still retain solid registration advantage here, but party struggling.
Republicans enjoy a double-digit registration advantage in Kansas 3rd Congressional
District (16 points), but registered Republicans are turning their backs on the party. In a
generic matchup for Congress between unnamed candidates, a Democrat actually leads
42 39 percent. This is due to voters without a party affiliation choosing the Democrat
by a 41 25 percent margin and nearly one in five registered Republicans (18 percent)
backing the Democrat.

Governor Brownbacks standing incredibly loweven among Republicans. One of the

most notable findings here is just how damaged Sam Brownback is in the 3rd District. Just
18 percent of likely voters view him favorably, with a staggering 70 percent offering a
negative opinion of their Governor. A majority of registered Republicans (53 percent)

Survey among 400 likely voters in Kansas 3rd Congressional District. Interviews were conducted between August
28-30th on land lines and cell phones. Results carry a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percentage points at the 95 percent
confidence interval.
1

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Polling Summary KS-3

view Brownback unfavorably, with just 31 percent holding a favorable view. Even
among self-identifying Republicans, his standing is negative (39 42 percent fav/unfav).
Favorable
unfavorable

Total

18 70

Registered Democrats

4 92

Registered Republicans

31 53

No party registration

12 80

Self IDed Independents

16 73

Men

22 71

Women

15 69

Wyandotte County

12 70

Johnson County

20 70

Clinton holds solid lead over Trump, who struggles with his base. Trump is really
floundering in this district. He trails Hillary Clinton 45 31 percent, with another 17
percent selecting Libertarian Gary Johnson (Green Jill Stein wins 3 percent). Trump is
particularly damaged among Independent voters.
Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

Total

45

31

17

Registered Democrats

79

Registered Republicans

22

50

22

No party registration

50

18

25

Self IDed Independents

40

23

28

Voters unimpressed with Yoder, still unaware of Sidie. Yoder is well-known to voters in
the 3rd District; eighty-seven percent of likely voters can identify him, but his 32 39
percent favorable/unfavorable rating is unimpressive. Self-described Independent voters
view him unfavorably by nearly a 2:1 margin (24 percent fav/44 percent unfav). Just 39
percent say Yoder is doing an excellent or good job as Congressman, with a 55
percent majority rating his performance as either just fair or poor.
Democrat Jay Sidie is not nearly as well-known at this point, which is unsurprising since
Sidie has never run for office before and is yet to air television ads for his campaign. Just
2

Polling Summary KS-3

31 percent can identify him, with 10 percent rating him favorably and 14 percent giving
him an unfavorable rating.

Yoder begins race with lead over Sidie, but quickly loses ground. In the initial head-tohead ballot asked before any other information about the candidates, Sidie trails Kevin
Yoder 37 49 percent, with Libertarian Steve Hohe winning 8 percent.
Once voters hear balanced positive information about both candidates, Yoders lead is cut
dramatically. Sidie trails at this point by a 42 46 percent margin (Hohe wins 6 percent).
Sidie gains support among his base of Democrats and eliminates his disadvantage among
voters not registered with either party (turning a 6-point deficit into a 2-point lead). He
makes disproportionate gains with younger women, a group Democrats need to win here.
After balanced negative information on both candidatesincluding attacks tying Sidie to
Nancy Pelosi and linking Yoder to Governor Brownback, Sidie moves ahead. At the end
of the survey, Sidie leads Yoder 44 40 percent (Steve Hohe wins 10 percent). Sidie
continues to build support among Democrats throughout the survey, as they come back
home while completely eroding Yoders support among people not registered with either
major party.
Sidie Yoder Hohe
Initial vote

Revote

Final vote

Total net
Sidie gain

Total

37 49 8

42 46 6

44 40 10

+15

Registered Democrats

69 14 4

75 19 1

81 10 4

+15

Registered Republicans

17 70 8

20 70 5

19 66 11

+6

No party registration

34 40 18

37 35 17

49 24 18

+31