Turkish Energy Digest

for International Investors

by
Haluk Direskeneli

This page is left blank.

Foreword
Dear Readers,
While I was working for an American Turkish joint venture company, I
was supposed to write "Minutes of Meeting" at the end of each
business meeting weather it was with clients, contractors or with staff
and then I had to distribute to the attendees. The reciprocal party also
writes their own document and distribute to the related parties. If
there were mismatches or misunderstandings between these
documents, then we would make the necessary corrections and
agree on what we discussed in the meeting.

So you avoid any

mistakes or mismatches and keep your written records to apply in

future, you are away from verbal memory errors.
Since then time has passed. For last three years, I am writing weekly
column on local energy problems which mainly consist of my past
notes reflecting my past experiences, both in Turkish as well as in
English. The draft article first appears in my personal web page to be
corrected and updated with comments, criticisms, recommendations.
My Editor makes the last review, and if we feel that the draft article
has come to maturity, then we publish on paper newspaper then go
live on web site.

The same process goes under way in the English text of the article.
My native English speaker American Editor is more ruthless than our
local Turkish Editor. "I'm not a technical person. I am an ordinary
reader. You can not post an article I do not understand," s/he says.
The corrected/ edited last English version of the article is usually
much more different than the first draft.
Publication of an article without any editorial supervision is not
correct. An article can not be published without the editor. Editor who
does not know you personally, is better for you. S/he makes
corrections clearer, more honest, more ruthless. Reader comments
are also very useful. I consider those reader comments very
seriously. Sometimes I throw the draft text and completely rewrite the
article. "Delete" key does work for this purpose..
There are physical limitations on the article. Text should be written
brief. There should be no empty wording, no long sentences. It
should be easy to read. Ordinary readers

should read and

understand easily. Incomprehensible, special abbreviations should be

avoided,

long descriptions should be given upfront mainly for

abbreviations.
There are rules of the column articles. Article should cover two A4
pages long, and not exceed 500-700 words, preferably, in "Times
New Roman" or "Ariel", written with 10-12 fonts. It should be perfect
in spell check, perfect in expression, free from logical errors.

Editors should understand what they read. Ordinary reader should

also understand. Article should be friendly, relaxed, simple, and
convincing.
Editors are good, if they can think and express their evaluations
straight forward, without diversion, they should have the ability to tell
you direct. You need an editor who says bluntly, expressing what he
feels on your precious document. This is the job of the editor.
I asked an experienced publisher to evaluate my situation.
"Your book is of more technical, ordinary readers do not understand,
so they do not buy, and we do not publish it is hard work you you,"
he said. There is more in article writing. Technical article, should be
"technical" in nature. It

should not disturb or accuse anyone. It

should not target any person, organization or company. The reader

should agree with the writer in the end. Our job is too difficult.
If you think for business books, our job is more difficult.
The same rules are applied also there. Only text can be a bit longer.
My Draft English eBooks stand on the internet as a pdf at the
following web page. https://metu.academia.edu/halukdireskeneli/
My Pdf Ebook in English, has received more than 2000+ downloads
around the world for last 3-months.

If anyone likes my Ebook, s/he can download and get the output on
paper. If the Ebook was printed on paper, that was the number I
would expect to sell on bookshelves of bookstores.
I feel that this book can fill the demand of local and international
readers, global investors, energy professionals, energy analysts. I
hope that you will enjoy reading this book.
This book is dedicated to my new born granddaughter Akasya
(Acacia) who enlighten my life with her happy presence.
Haluk Direskeneli
Ankara, February 2016

About the Author

Haluk Direskeneli, is a graduate of METU Mechanical Engineering
department (1973). He worked in public, private enterprises, USA
Turkish JV companies (B&W, CSWI, AEP), in fabrication, basic and
detail design, marketing, sales and project management of thermal
power plants. He is currently working as freelance consultant/ energy
analyst with thermal power plants basic/ detail design software
expertise for private engineering companies, investors, universities
and research institutions. He is a member of METU Alumni and
Chamber of Turkish Mechanical Engineers Energy Working Group.
He is married. He has two kids, and new born grand daughter. He
lives in Ankara- Istanbul- Munich triangle.
Email

HalukDireskeneli at gmail dot com

Blog

http://energynewsletterturkey.blogspot.com

Web

http://www.turkishweekly.net

LinkedIn:

http://www.linkedin.com/pub/haluk-direskeneli/

Facebook: Deactivated
Tweet

@energyanalyst_

Current as of January 6th, 2016

Contents
Turkey: Energy and Infrastructure Forecast 2016
Is America Ready for A Jewish President?
Turkish- Russian Relations
The G20 Antalya Summit
Turkish voters opted for stability and security in General Elections
What is the greatest national security threat to the United States?
Who is Jeremy Corbyn?
Turkish Energy Analyst
Migratory birds are passing through Istanbul
Munich 1943, Sophia Scholl
It was early WWII period in Istanbul
"Abduction from the Serail", at the Ankara Opera House
The Dilemma of Increased Greenhouse Gas Emissions
"60-day non-stop operation" rule
Are Electricity Markets on the brink of bankruptcy?
The new 'Soma Thermal Power Plant' debate
Crush Course to Reduce Culture Shock in North America
Direct face-to-face verbal communication
How should we choose our new energy minister?
Turkish black-out is not the end of the world
"Fury" (Rage) film, and impact on Main Battle Tank fabrication
Turkeys 2015 National Coal Policy
How should Investment Incentives be given, if at all?
Is Turkey Entering an Energy Bottleneck?

Self-fulfilling Prophecy or Rational Expectations

The New Political and Economic Era in Turkey
The best Venues for Energy Conferences in Turkey, as of 2014
"Energy" Chapter of the 62nd Turkish Government's New Program
Energy Market Analysis for the 2016 American Presidential Elections
Personal Observations about the Democratic Practices
Angie's house in Berlin and her mobile phone
Energy Market Dynamics
A Hard Land to Survive, Germany for Foreigners
Hazelwood Thermal Power Plant 8x200 MWe
Project finance is getting too difficult for Thermal Power Plants
Renewable Energy in Turkey, Today & Tomorrow
Soma should be the last disaster !!
Is there any relation between the Soma mine disaster & TPPs?
Cyber Wars in Modern Times
The Tunchbilek Thermal Power Plant
An Old Story about the Yataan, Yeniky, and Kemerky
Konya Karapnar Coal Fields Ready for TPP
Lessons learnt in legal dispute for blog writing
The Real Crazy Project: Afin Elbistan
Afin Elbistan, A Critical Look to The Turkish Energy Section
A Personal Evaluation of Nuclear Energy in Turkey,
Vineyards on Depleted Ash Dam Fields of Thermal Power Plants
A Tale of Prinkipo (fiction)

TURKEY: Energy & Infrastructure Forecast 2016,

Risks and Opportunities
At the end of every year your writer tries to present a forecast of
Turkeys energy industry and business environment for the upcoming
year. Some of these predictions come true, some do not. Energy
markets change throughout the year due to the influence of political
will or decisions that make an international impact. Political
preferences may change, and domestic, regional, and international
political dynamics may influence the ongoing situation. Nonetheless,
it is necessary to make an upfront forecast as a road map to lead us
in our ventures, investments, and business policies. Hence, we will
draw a prediction based on the best available estimates for 2016, and
if needed we will make the necessary corrections as events unfold.
Economies and businesses are always shaped by expectations, just
as market expectations are important in economic forecasts
themselves. Within our professional capacity, we have tried to outline
a draft forecast for the upcoming year. While it may not necessarily
foresee the future in all its detail, it is better to have one, rather than
none. Here are our expectations for 2016:
Project Financing

Your writer sees serious blockage in our local project financing

capabilities. Turkey is no longer an emerging country that deserves
project financing. Our investment credibility has been lowered by
credit rating institutions due to various decisions that have been
made in the past. Some foreign investors are selling their properties,
stocks, and shares in Turkey; they are ready to leave the country.
New investors are entering our environment to purchase available
properties at low cost scrap values. The rise of the US Feds interest
rates will continue at 25 base points every three months over the
course of 2016. The money available in the world will be absorbed by
US markets.
Natural Gas
Our natural gas consumption is not expected to rise or fall compared
to last year. In 2015, our consumption was estimated at around 48
billion cubic meters. Throughout the course of 2015, the price of
crude oil fell from $100 to $35 per barrel. It is still unclear how much
further the price of crude oil will fall. The rising tension between Saudi
Arabia and Iran may keep the prices stable or even move them a bit
higher. Nonetheless, low oil prices are good news for countries with
no oil reserves. Turkeys fulfillment of its energy demand with
supplies of natural gas from northern Iraqi gas fields and Israeli
offshore reserves has not become a reality, and it will most likely
remain so for at least 4-5 years.

The price of Russian natural gas at the German border fell from $11
to $6 per MMBTU (Million British Thermal Units) over the past year
due to cheap US shale gas and German energy generation from
renewable sources. This price reduction is not reflected in our
markets, as we have long-term take-or-pay gas purchase
agreements which do not allow for negotiation.
Gas-Fired Power Plants
Construction of the new Hamitabad gas-fired 1500-MWe combined
cycle plant is continuing. We hope that the construction will be
completed by the end of 2016, and that trial runs may then begin.
However, the Russian gas that will fuel this plant is not yet secured.
What were to happen if the gas flow to the plant were somehow
interrupted? Hence, we have a serious risk to our gas supply in
Hamitabad. We have no other combined cycle power plants that are
expected to be constructed in 2016.
Investment Opportunities for Newcomers
New investment opportunities emerged in the Turkish energy markets
for Saudi, Gulf, Qatari, and UAE financiers. Plant sale prices are
cheaper now. Turkish financial institutions began to hire specialized
consultants to purchase cheaper power stations at bargain prices.

Finansbank was sold to Qatar. Our energy market has begun to

change hands.
New Coal-firing Power Plants
Turkeys Energy Ministry (ETKB) and Regulatory Agency (EMRA)
began to significantly ease acceptance procedures for new electricity
generation plants. In the past, trial testing periods for the temporary
acceptance of power plants were carried out meticulously over an
extended amount of time. Now, however, these trail testing periods
have been significantly shortened. New power plants firing local
indigenous coal are receiving acceptance certificates at a rapid pace.
We currently see such examples in Tufanbeyli, Bolu Gynk, and
Mihalck, and are expected to see similar instances in the future in
Soma, Konya Ilgin, Afsin, and Afyon. However, such new power
plants that are currently operating house failing insulation, refractory,
and feed water equipment, and deficient instrumentation and control
systems, and their overall operations are unsynchronized.
The Afin Elbistan-A local coal-firing thermal power plant is in the
process of being privatized after a 20-year long legal dispute. The
private owner of the plant started rehabilitation works of the facilitys
existing 4x344 MWe units by initiating the purchase of new 2x344
MWe 5-6th units. The necessary financing package for this purchase

should be secured. Experienced staff is needed to carry out such a

massive project.
Nearby, the Afin Elbistan-B coal-fired thermal power plant has 4x350
MWe units, however two of these units have failed and works to
repair them have not yet been completed. The availability of the other
two units on the site are not at a desired level. The llolar open-pit
coal field that is associated with these plants experienced a landslide
accident and has hence been closed for last three years, therefore
the Kilaky open-pit coal field is feeding both the Afin Elbistan-A
and B plants. The A plant is fed by coal belt conveyors, whereas the
B plant is fed by coal transported by trucks, the duration of their
transit we are still unsure of.
Other investment projects aimed at exploiting the Elbistan open-pit
coal fields in the form of constructing power plants similar in size to
the A and B facilities are underway. Nonetheless, the groups
charged with these investments are not particularly serious. Everyone
is coming to these sites simply to test the waters. Engineering groups
from Korea, Japan, China, and even from Qatar are investigating
these sites. They sign Memorandum of Understanding, but these
documents dont allow for any further concrete actions. The Bank of
China, for example, is not eager to cover financing requirements
entailed by the construction of a plant. Groups are exercising due
diligence and they are not in any hurry to participate in any new

investments. They are more eager to purchase existing privatized

power plants at scrap value.
Imported Coal-firing Thermal Power Plants
There are investment applications to the local regulatory agency to
build new imported coal-firing thermal power plants on the Gulf of
Iskenderun, the Biga Peninsula, and in atalaz County. However, it
is not easy to realize such investments as it is difficult to secure their
financing, to find interested parties willing to engage in their
construction, and to obtain imported coal.
Russian Sanctions
Turkeys sour relations with Russia, resultant of the downing of
Russias SU-24 war plane, have not yet been reflected in Turkeys
gas supply. Russians say, You get our gas as long as you pay,
however, they also say, we arent responsible for any disruptions to
gas distribution that may occur along the Ukrainian pipeline. Such is
an obvious threat of future disruption. New pipeline investment
projects between our two countries have been shelved.
Turkish companies which are allowed to operate in Russia are
carefully selected. If they have an ongoing construction project in
Russia, they are free to work. Those who completed their job in the

past but are not currently working in Russia, they will not find
themselves on Russias list of preferred companies. In this way,
ongoing construction projects will continue, but there will be no new
job opportunities. Growing tension and hostility never help anyone.
War, in any terms, harms all those involved. Good neighborliness,
mutual trust, friendship, and cooperation should form the basis of
Turkish-Russian relations.
Nuclear Energy
The construction of the 4800 MWe Akkuyu nuclear power plant has
been all but frozen even though Turkish authorities declare that the
project has not been cancelled. The Russian authorities, on the other
hand, remain silent, refusing to release any information.
In Sinop, a feasibility study for the development of a nuclear power
plant is being conducted by the Japanese-French consortium tasked
with the plants construction. The joint venture group specialists are
not in much of a hurry to complete the project.
Impact of Climate Change on Energy Markets
After the COP21 Climate Change Conference in Paris, it is expected
that new coal-firing thermal power plants will face serious sanctions
worldwide. While nothing is clear yet, these are important

developments for investors when it comes to preparing their purchase

of new environmental equipment and clean coal technologies. Coalfiring could be completely abandoned in the future due to coal taxes
and other harsh measures to stop global warming.
Hydroelectric Power Plants in the South East
Hydropower investments have been affected by violence in Turkeys
South East. The South Eastern Anatolian Region produces electricity
by way of existing high capacity dams. However, locals are
preventing new investments from occurring. The regions energy
demand is a veritable black hole - sucking electricity from the national
grid - yet locals are not paying the bill. It would be better to spend
more money on solving the social problems of the region instead of
paying for more and more security related expenses. Such would be
a more rational solution leading to open dialogue.
Overall Electricity Generation Capacity
Our country now has a 70 GWe installed electricity generation
capacity which consumes 42 GWe at peak hours in August. We have
not witnessed any further major increase in energy generation, nor
any rehabilitation programs in privatized plants that would involve the
purchase of necessary electro-static-precipitators (ESPs), flue gas
desulphurisation (FGD) mechanisms, or instrumentation and controls

(I&C) equipment. Even if some operators spend minor amounts on

rehabilitation expenses to keep their plants operating, most of them
take refuge in exemption which is expected to be extended for three
more years after 2018.
2016: The Year of Renewable Energy
New procedures in the renewable energy markets have brought
certain lessons. Companies operating in the renewable market have
learnt what to do and what to apply. Compared to the past, wind and
solar investments are cheaper and easier to construct and
implement, and cost much less per unit of electricity generated than
they once did. Such developments are good. There is a rising
tendency for the necessary equipment for renewable technologies to
be manufactured domestically. Solar specialization can also create
triple digit annual increases. 2016 will be the year of solar and
renewable energy in the local market.
Annual GDP Growth
Turkeys annual GDP growth over the course of 2016 is estimated at
3-4% (pessimists say 3%, optimists say 4%). In any case, 3-4%
growth per annum will not save us. Energy investments should
increase more than our GDP each year. In the existing business
environment, it is difficult to foresee such growth. Moreover, it will

also remain difficult to find revenue to meet the uncontrolled spending

of the political authority.
Questions to answer in 2016
What is the state of the energy markets? Could we pronounce a
wholesale price? Do our public authorities, specifically the Ministry of
Energy and Natural Resources (MENR), the Energy Markets
Regulatory Agency (EMRA), and the Energy Exchange Operations
Authority of Turkey (EPIAS) spur enough confidence for investors and
banks to invest?
What is the electricity transmission cost and what is its capacity for
future

investments?

Will

the Turkish Electricity Transmission

Company (TEIAS) receive permission from the EMRA for tariff

changes for its next 10-year plan to spur new investment
connections? Do we have national plans made available to the public
with regard to new hydro and thermal plants connections to the
national grid? What is the national network in the last case, is n-1
safe? In the last government program, we see no numbers nor
targets.
We see that energy generation is no longer overtly expensive in wind,
solar, or small hydro plants, so we may expect more investments in

these markets. Do we have cost estimations for the end users to

justify such observations?
What is the possibility of using domestic fuel for our nuclear energy
program? Do we have the flexibility to find nuclear fuel from other
suppliers? How shall we dispose the spent nuclear fuel in the longrun? What is the national exit policy in the case we abandon our
nuclear energy program? What is the cost of giving up nuclear
energy?
What are the most cost-effective models for forward-looking
estimates of electricity generation and consumption?
What will be the cost of thermal power plants after the COP21 Paris
Agreement? Where shall we find project financing for new coal-firing
thermal power plants?
As it is critical for our economic growth not only to generate more
electricity but also to reduce demand and increase efficiency, how
shall we accomplish such a goal in the near future? We must enact
legislation to ban all forms of electrical heating in open air areas used
by cigarette smokers. There is no point in wasting energy on heat that
will escape into the atmosphere just to provide for the comfort of
those who smoke. It is a complete waste of money and energy.

Syria
Will Turkey engage in a direct war with Syria? Not likely. But in order
to avoid war, one should be ready for war at all times, with all means.
There may be sporadic clashes on our southern border, but the
region is historically our backyard. There may be foreign interference
as of now, but in the end we will have the last word.
New Year Resolutions
Business in the energy markets was quite hard in 2015. It will be
harder in the new year. When you manage your business, make your
own business plan in accordance with your new year forecast. Make
the necessary changes in time. Do not let negative events get you
down. Do not miss meetings with your friends. Participate in social
activities. Spend money for the education of your children. Take long
distance trips with your family. Create opportunities for your children
to learn more than one foreign language. Pay attention to the health
of your family. Have a healthy diet. Eat a solid breakfast each
morning. Walk at least one hour every day. Take the stairs.
In principle, we would recommend that individuals reduce their
expenditures, spending, and borrowing, and stay liquid by paying
cash. Everyone in the business environment says that 2016 will be
another difficult year. Save in US dollars if you have some extra

money. Run your existing business, reduce your operation costs, and
never leave the market. Continue your advertising, engineering, and
feasibility studies. Do not worry about hard times, hard times come
and go.
We would be pleased to receive your comments and feedback over
the course of the coming year. I wish a happy and prosperous New
Year to each of you!
Ankara, 04 January 2016

#BernieSanders, #DemDebate,
Is America ready for a Jewish president?
US presidential candidate Bernie Sanders is getting serious in public
opinion polls. It is so exciting to watch debates, polls, and speeches,
on CNN, NBC, ABC, and BBC TV channels early in the morning our
time, similar to watching a football match.
Bernie Sanders (74) is a New York native, Jewish American born in
1941. He received his graduate diploma in Political Science from the
University of Chicago. Formerly, he was a mayor and member of the
House of Representatives, and he is currently serving as Vermont
Senator, as he has been for the last two terms. Public polls rate him
better than both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. Bernie Sanders
has received humble donations from workers, their trade unions, and
from

individual

voters.

Hillarys

donations

are

from

major

corporations, big banks, and financial institutions, which are called

super PACs.
During the Vietnam War, a young Bernie Sanders declared himself a
"conscientious objector" and did not participate in the Vietnam War.
Thus, we know that he is against war. In congress, he voted against
the war in Afghanistan, Iraq and even Syria. In personal armament he
is quoted saying, "Guns alone do not kill people, the people who use
gun kills other people, so you must protect people's mental health."

That is a practical approach since his constituency in Vermont is

located in forest land and gun ownership is important for personal
safety.
He offers to promote the general health insurance system for all to
facilitate full access. He says he is a "self-declared socialist, or social
democrat, proud to be Jewish but not too religious." In his youth, he
spent 3 months in an Israeli kibbutz in summer time. He speaks basic
Hebrew. Occasionally, he is against Israeli war policies but he agrees
that Israel has the right to defend its citizens.
He does not have a lot of experience in world politics. His career has
focused on domestic politics. No matter whether or not Bernie
Sanders will be the next US president, his rival Hillary Clinton will
probably be the foreign minister (Secretary of State).
If elected president, care for the environment, global warming, and
climate change will most likely be of extreme importance. "Climate
change is the greatest security threat to the United States," he says.
The Environment Impact Assessment will have extreme importance
to EIA standards, in order to increase the new investments for
thermal power plant environmental equipment. Bernie Sanders will
promote investments in renewable energy, hydro, wind, and solar.
There will be a pollution tax on coal and fossil fuel firing thermal
power plants. That will discourage new thermal investments.

Investors will escape from fossil fuels and shale gas (fracturing)
investments will be discouraged. Environmental, water, air, and soil
contamination will be prevented. Long distance gas transmission
pipelines (keystone) will be stopped.
His paternal family and his mother were Ashkenazim East European
Jewish immigrants at the turn of 20th century. His paternal relatives
that remained in East Europe during World War II disappeared in the
Holocaust. Bernie has been married twice. He has an adult son from
a woman he dated between his two marriages. He has three
stepchildren from his current wife, whom he calls his own.
He has a practical approach to nuclear energy. Vermont nuclear plant
wastes in their selection, He supported the decision to transport
nuclear waste from a Vermont nuclear plant to the Texas town of
Sierra Blanca, which is a poor Hispanic community.
Immigrant American citizens who have recently arrived (including
Turkish Americans), disadvantageous minorities, women, the elderly,
and retirees vote for Democrats. Weapon manufacturers and rich
whites are Republican. Democrats generally remain distant from
Turkey, whereas Republicans are closer to Turkey. If Hillary Clinton
wins, she will continue the same policy of Barack Obama, she does
not offer anything new. But still, she has been unable to give an

account on the Benghazi Libya events, in which she was responsible

for the loss of the US ambassador.
The US is preparing to have a Jewish senator become the next
president, but is the world ready for it? Is our region ready? Jewish
Americans have run for president twice, but have failed to succeed in
the past. We all are tired of the same family names. Bernie Sanders,
with his pacifist tendencies, may be a better choice for our geography
for cooling down our unnecessarily bitter relations with the Russians
in Syria. Who knows, opportunities may arise for a new formation in
the warming relations with Israel, Egypt, and with our neighbors.
Could the castle of capitalism, the US, be run by a socialist/social
democratic/Jewish president? Large companies, powerful banks,
owners of fossil fuel power plants would they allow the election of
such a man? While the Communist Soviet Union has dissolved and is
switching to a market economy, is it likely that the US will be led by a
socialist president? Maybe we'll organize panels, invite foreign
scholars, and even call US embassy officials to talk.
Ankara, 28 January 2016

Turkish- Russian Relations

In the past your writer spent a lot of time marketing industrial installations in Syria, Israel, Jordan, and other countries in the Middle East.
During these trips we secured many profitable orders. Syria housed a
business environment very similar to ours in Turkey, it represented a
properly functioning business climate where we could earn money.
However, it now goes without saying that those times are over. Unfortunately there will be no way to conduct any business in Syria for at
least the next 10 years.
We were able to easily access the Syrian market due to Turkey and
Syrias shared border We had close cultural ties, and natural
similarities. Unfortunately, the old Syria is no more. Damascus,
Aleppo, Homs, Deir ez-Zor now lie in ruins due to clashes between
government forces and foreign backed insurgents. We do not know
how the new Syria will be created or how its new economic
environment will be rebuilt. However, if you want to avoid war, you
must always be prepared for war.
We are not Arab, we are Turkish. Our two peoples do not share a
common language. We Turks have our own democracy, our own
political system. We do not need to lead the Middle East nations, nor
do we need to be their role model. Each Arab nation should create
their own political system based on their own historical and cultural
heritage as well as their own geography.

Turkey created its own approach to international politics based on

non-interference in the internal affairs of other neighboring countries
as formulated in the mantra peace at home, peace abroad which
was adopted after WWI and tested during WWII, subsequently being
validated and proven correct for its geopolitical location.
When you get involved in the internal conflicts of others, the situation
hurts you economically and politically. Trade relations stop, you lose
money and markets. Now, we have more than 2.2 million Syrian
refugees in our border regions, all of whom are unemployed and in
dire need of our humanitarian assistance. We have already spent
more than 6 billion US$ on refugees in Turkey over the last 6 years
since conflict was first initiated. With the money they allocated to
securing refuge abroad, rich Syrians and their families left Turkey for
Europe or elsewhere soon after their arrival.
***
There is an important Russian naval base in the sea port town of
Tartus on Syria's Mediterranean coast. This site embodies the most
powerful point of logistical support for Russian naval vessels in the
Mediterranean Sea. Assads government has granted this base to the
Russians in order to win their military, political, and financial support.
Almost all Russian naval vessels in the Mediterranean receive their
logistical support, whether food, fuel, or maintenance, from this naval

base. This base represents the life support of the Russian Navy, and
Russia would not risk losing the military seaport for any reason. Its
position in the palm of Russias hand is nonnegotiable.
Next to the city of Latakia in northwestern Syria is Bassel Al-Assad
International Airport, part of which has been converted into the
Khmeimim airbase that is now being operated by the Russian military.
Here, Russia has deployed its latest military technologies including
Su-24 and Su-34 warplanes, T-90 battle tanks, and S400 anti-aircraft
missiles. Russia has now imposed its own rules of engagement in
Syria that allow it to shoot without warning anything it deems to be a
danger.
In foreign affairs, there is only one basic mission; it is national
interest. Democracy, human rights, humanitarian sentiments are
useless. It is not ones job to bring democracy to other nations. It is
not ones responsibility to solve the internal problems of other
countries. Turkey should have close, equal, and profitable relations
with all of its neighboring countries including Russia, a nearby super
power. Turkey should pay attention to Russians red lines,
sensitivities, interests, military concerns, and it should remain distant.
Russia is our "Northern Neighbor", not a distant nation overseas. We
share close economic, trade, and social relations with this country
and hope to increase our bilateral trade volume to more than 100

billion US dollars. By ignoring the defense sensitivities of our major

neighbor to the north, we cannot hope to continue to maintain our
friendly relations with the country that would lead to our mutual
prosperity.
Russia is not the Soviet Union any more. It now has its own version
of democracy that is still being shaped to bring greater prosperity to
the Russian people. As market forces settle slowly, it should be noted
that Russians are not Comrades any more. They have been
repositioned

as

highly

qualified,

educated,

and

competent

businessmen and women.

Today in front of the Kremlin, there are no more old Soviet cars, but
high-quality BMWs, Mercedes, and Audis. The Russians have money,
they buy the best there is to buy in the international market. They
have no hard feelings about their local relatively lower quality
manufactured products. They have their own high-technologies that
have gained a solid reputation in the space, military, nuclear, and
defense sectors.
Under strict surveillance of government hosts, your writer paid a short
visit to a few pre-selected industrial sites in Western Siberia in 1976
under the auspices of the United Nations. Back then the Russians
had a few gas turbines displaying the UK Rolls-Royce design with
small outputs. They were skilled in reverse engineering and produced

hundreds of these turbines. In case of the need for 100-MWe, they

would install 10x 10-MWe simple cycle gas turbines of their own,
whereas we would install 2x50-MWe from a reputable Western
supplier.
Nowadays, they have money to spend, so they buy the best and they
cant be bothered to manufacture themselves. Our local contractor
companies in Turkey had many orders for combined cycle power
plants that were to be constructed for Russia in locations spanning
from its western border with Poland to the east Pacific Ocean shores
on the Kamchatka Peninsula.
Our northern neighbor has agreed to build, own, and operate
Turkeys Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant within the framework of an
intergovernmental agreement that stipulates Russias complete
financing of the project. All industrialized countries have nuclear
power plants; and we may also have one of our own someday. You
may oppose nuclear power, but this is the reality. That said, let us do
it properly, under our own supervision together with internationally
reputable partners and engineers.
However, without competitive market tendering, projects arranged
under intergovernmental agreements are too dangerous for the
purchasing as well as the supplying countries. When Aswan Dam in
Egypt was in its design stage, suppliers had no available high-

capacity, high-head hydro turbines for the desert site. All of their
water turbines were suitable for rivers in northern Siberia.
Nonetheless, they decided to install whatever was available at that
time. These turbines worked at first and generated electricity in
Aswan, but in the long term they were plagued with failures and came
to need frequent repair and rehabilitation in the desert environment
where the dam is located.
We have had similar experiences in our country related to the design
and supply of industrial installations, such as the Orhaneli 210 MWe
thermal power plant steam turbine, the Seydiehir aluminum
producing facilities, the Iskenderun iron and steel mills, and the
Petkim Aliaga refinery.
The designs of these installations were meant for cold Arctic
environments, whereby our sites were located in tropic weather
conditions. In this way, we need to evaluate the Akkuyu Nuclear
Power Plant designs carefully. A nuclear power plant designed to
thrive in a cold Arctic environment may have difficulty in coping with
the climate of our tropic Mediterranean coastal regions. We all
wonder how the plant designers will ensure the functioning of the
plant cooling system when considering the warm temperature of the
available sea water nearby.

Who would honestly give preference to an industrial plant designed

and fabricated by our northern supplier? When was the last time you
purchased an industrial product? Please do recommend a brand
name of high-quality. If you could, would you prefer to buy an AirBus,
Boeing, or a Tupolev? When was the last time you flew on a Tupolev?
There are unconfirmed rumors among the circles of the nuclear
industry that suppliers would prefer to supply nuclear cores only and
then outsource the rest, whether steam turbines, instrumentation and
controls, or boilers, to other reputable sub-suppliers provided that
they furnish Exim financing themselves. There are rumors on the
market that German Siemens-KWU could supply steam turbines to
the project under German or European Union Exim financing.
***
We have young Turkish students who are receiving their higher
education on nuclear power plants in Russia. Over the last few years,
they have learnt the Russian language. They have at least 5 more
years until they graduate. During this period their number will reach
almost 400. The Russian university environment is not like ours.
Sexual freedom is beyond our understanding. Young men and
women over the age of 15 have absolute sexual freedom in Russia.
Our sense of morality is not valid there, where the youth play by their
own rules.

How will our youth cope in that environment? They were chosen to
participate in these programs based on their technical and scientific
qualifications, yet they are being tossed into the water and told to
learn to swim. How will this work? How can they protect themselves?
When they finish their education in nuclear sciences, how can we ask
them to control/ maintain full responsibility over a nuclear power plant
with such limited experience? In your own industrial plant, how many
years of operation experience do you ask from an incoming young
engineer?
***
Leaders of Russia and Turkey now find themselves in a difficult
phase characterized by misunderstanding and distrust due to the
recent downing of the Russian Su-24. The situation is displeasing if
not downright nasty. Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Turkey
many times in the past to evaluate the Turkeys foreign affairs and
economic cooperation with Russia. His last visit was on 15-16 Nov.
2015 for the G20 Summit in Antalya. High-level face-to-face meetings
are always important, as they give leaders the opportunity to express
and

evaluate

their

countries

needs,

mutual

interests,

and

sensitivities. While translations may falter and consultants/experts

may mislead, these instances of face-to-face communication between
top authorities facilitate the formulation of resolutions to problem
areas that are mutually satisfactory. We have much to learn from one

another; it is essential that we keep open all lines of information and

communication in the arena of international relations.
President Vladimir Putin is a well-educated, multilingual, rational, and
pragmatic head of state. He holds a PhD degree from the University
of Leningrad-Saint Petersburg in International Law and Economics.
He speaks fluent German, and while he understands English, he
does not necessarily volunteer to display his ability to speak it. He
knows his capabilities and what he wants. These are important
virtues. It is good to have a competent counterpart in international
relations. These are important virtues. U.S. Secretary of State John
Kerry speaks French, but most of the USs earlier Secretaries of
State have not known a second language besides English. Former
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and current US National
Security Advisor Susan Rice do not speak any foreign languages.
***
Our relations with the Soviet Union during the Cold War were
thoroughly bitter. But now the walls have fallen and the Cold War is
over. We have more than 200 thousand qualified Turkish workers in
Russia securing contracts and constructing high rises, power plants,
and industrial installations. More than 200 thousand weddings have
taken place between Russian and Turkish nationals; 140 thousand
Turkish-Russian binational families live in Russia, while 60 thousand
live in Turkey, mostly on the Mediterranean coast in the Antalya

region. Most of these couples consist of a Russian bride and a

Turkish groom, but the number of Russian men marrying Turkish
women is on the rise. Russian brides are the cultural inheritors of
Tolstoy, Dostoyevsky, and Tchaikovsky. They are beautiful and highly
educated. If the mutual relations between our two countries are not
completely soured, many of our 400 students of nuclear science in
Russia could marry Russians in the near future, then we would have
even more binational mixed marriages. The Russian language could
be used commonly as a language in their homes. In this sense, we
might also expect a greater number of Russian in-laws in our
communities.
interpersonal

Nonetheless,
relationships

the
is

growth

severely

of

such

hindered

due

binational
to

the

environment of mutual mistrust created by the mismanagement that

was the downing of Russias Su-24.
***
We should also note that Turkey is highly dependent on Russian
natural gas. We generate almost 60% of our electricity from natural
gas, and most of this is supplied by Russia. This is augmented by our
unsustainably high current account deficient. Both our account deficit
and dependence on foreign natural gas should be reduced. In the
long term, the same can be said of our dependence on imported coal
and future imported supply of nuclear fuel.

Such realities represent flashing emergency lights on our balance

sheets. We must reduce our dependence to lower levels in the
shortest amount of time within reason. We should mend our broken
ties with Russia as soon as possible and open new joint ventures and
promote new businesses together. Thanks to the internet, we now
have a more free and independent social and political environment in
which to discuss such matters.
As noted above, in 1976, under the auspices of the United Nations,
your writer spent 3 months in Russia. 32 years later, in 2008, I went
to Moscow and Saint Petersburg for 1 week on a touristic program
that was paid for out of pocket. Your writer sincerely feels that the
Russian and Turkish peoples are cut from the same cloth. The
country is undergoing a slow but certain transformation from the old
Soviet system to the market economy. Russian citizens are now more
comfortable with this change. While the black market in the country
has all but vaporized, its service sector is still struggling. Strict state
scrutiny of daily life has nearly vanished. Traditional vodka is out,
beer is in. Russian women are still very beautiful, while the men have
acquired greater business savvy. Ballet and Opera performances are
exquisite, but very expensive. If you ask for directions, ten or more
locals will come to your aid; if they cannot help you with the map, they
will take you where you need to go themselves.

Growing tension and hostility never help anyone. War, in any terms,
harms all those involved. Good neighborliness, mutual trust,
friendship, and cooperation should form the basis of Turkish-Russian
relations. Turkey continues to seek to further develop the mutual
interests of both countries. Concrete results of our cooperation should
be seen in the energy and economic fields. Let us take comfort in the
synergy that working together can produce, and hence stick to our
tested motto peace at home, peace abroad, a major requirement for
the survival of any independent nation in the Middle East region.
We wish you a happy and prosperous new year!
Prinkipo, Istanbul 24th December 2015

The G20 Antalya Summit

This years G20 summit was held at Belek Resort in Antalya, Turkey
on 15-16 November 2015. G20 leaders began to trickle into the city
on Sunday morning. Obama held his final security meeting of the day
at the White House meeting hall on Saturday night and then boarded
AirForce-1 (AF1) in sportswear at Andrews Air Force Base in
Maryland.
His advisers, body guards, and the White House press corps
accompanied him on the 11-hour flight aboard the Boeing 747. On
the flight he slept, awoke, ate breakfast, and put on his black
business suit, white shirt, and plain gray necktie. AF1 touched down
at Antalya international airport on Sunday morning at 6:58 a.m. The
journalists, bodyguards, and advisers exited the plane first. US
President Barack H. Obama walked down the stairs from AF1 onto
the tarmac alone in a relaxed and sporty manner. A giant armored car
approached the stairs coming down from the plane as local civilian
authorities welcomed the President. A small boy and girl gave him
flowers. Obama got into the vehicle with the US Ambassador to
Turkey and hit the road for the G20 meeting escorted by a convoy of
armored cars.
The destroyer USS Donald Cook dropped anchor in the Gulf of
Antalya in wait. After the first evenings meetings came to an end,

Barack Obama could have chosen to spend the night onboard the
vessel, which had also been outfitted with a Seahawk helicopter.
Obama preferred to spend the night at the hotel. The following
morning he took a run on the track at the hotels gym.
During the meetings, he removed the translation headset when he
was tired of listening to the conversation that he already knows very
well. He often chewed nicotine gum instead of drinking coffee or tea.
On the occasions that he did drink coffee, it was brought to him by his
staff.
The 2015 agenda of the G20 meeting in Antalya was very weak in the
run up to the actual summit. There was not going to be much to talk
about other than common global issues. Participants were not so
enthusiastic to discuss the details of the Syrian Civil War, the refugee
crisis, or global terrorism. The most innocuous topic was to be
Global Warming and Climate Change.
But the night before the summit, on November 13th, terrorist attacks
rocked the capital of France. The attack swiftly transformed the G20
agenda. This group of world leaders were eager to evaluate the terror
attack.

French

President

Francois

Hollande

cancelled

his

participation at the G20 meeting and sent his foreign minister to act in
his stead. The other heads of the G20 countries, however, continued
to land in Antalya one by one.

International terrorism, the refugee crisis, and Syria clearly dominated

the top of this years G20 agenda, however, the details of the
discussions that took place behind closed doors were not spoken
about at public meetings which were open to journalists. In
accordance with the principal aim of the G20, many issues of
common importance were spoken about in bilateral talks between
G20 leaders in secrecy.
Terror has struck everyone in the world. Last summer, the Malaysia
Airlines MH17 flight from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur was downed
by Ukrainian separatists firing Russian missiles. The aircraft was
carrying a large number of civilian tourists, mostly Dutch.
More recently, a Russian plane en route to Saint Petersburg from
Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt exploded just after takeoff as explosives that
were secretly packed in a suitcase which made it through security at
the Egyptian airport were detonated. This incident can be seen as a
result of lax security practices employed by the Egyptian airport
baggage control staff. Afterwards, many international flights to Egypt
were canceled and many nations quickly evacuated their nationals
from the country. For security purposes, those evacuating the country
left their luggage at the airport to be transported later on separate
flights. Egyptian tourism has come to a halt, at least until Egypt
receives international approval on its airport security controls.

Vladimir Putin arrived in Antalya on Sunday morning. The presidential

plane that transported him was modest, medium-sized, and Russianmade. Special guest to the G20 Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev
arrived in a plane that was much larger. Aliyev took his wife arm-inarm before departure. The presidents of India and Brazil also boasted
modest-sized aircrafts.
Canadas new Prime Minister Justin Trudeau (age 43) arrived with a
private plane operated by the Canadian government. He received
pop-star treatment at the meetings, portraying a cute, friendly image
as a newcomer to world politics. Angela Merkel and David Cameron
were also present. They occupied the back rows of the G20 family
photo, and sat to the side during most meetings. They didnt mind
such treatment considering that they receive ample attention
elsewhere.
After breakfast and lunch on Monday, G20 leaders held bilateral
meetings behind closed doors in their respective hotels. It is well
known that the main objective of the G20 meeting is to organize a
large number of bilateral gatherings. We do not know what is talked
about during such meetings, but maybe we will learn some details in
time. During the G20 meeting in Antalya, the Paris massacre was
remembered and terrorism was condemned with a moment of silence
for those who lost their lives in the tragedy.

During the G20 meetings, general issues of global importance were

discussed. The final communique was agreed upon and released to
the public. A few sentences of this document addressed Global
warming and climate change.
During the G20 leaders family photo session, Vladimir Putin
approached Barrack Obama to arrange a talk. Even though Obamas
program was full with prior engagements, he agreed to a short
informal meeting. They met over coffee during the lunch-break at a
casual corner off to the side. According to Reuters, they talked for
about 30 minutes.
Obama and his national security adviser Susan Rice do not know
how to speak Russian. Therefore it can be assumed that the
conversation took place entirely in English. Here, Putin spoke with the
help of his interpreter/adviser on developing a common attitude
towards the Syrian Civil War, a potential ceasefire in the country, and
ISIS.
Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad has completed his tenure.
Everyone agrees that there is not much difference between him
staying in power or stepping down. Syria is now falling under
temporary, if not permanent, Russian domination. In this casual,
impromptu meeting during the lunch break, Obama was informed
directly by Putin about the latest situation in Syria and Russias

initiatives. Obama held his final meetings with other G20 leaders on
Monday. That evening at 17: 00, he held a 1-hour press conference.
Here, Obama discussed the Syrian Civil War, refugees, and the Paris
terrorist attacks. We understand that US President Obama has no
intention to interfere in Syrian affairs nor any other world conflict
during his presidential term before the 2016 presidential elections. He
maintains a long-term policy of indifference/ignorance towards our
local political environment.
When evaluating the proceedings of the G20 meeting, it can be said
that Russian President Vladimir Putin was the leader who best
utilized the opportunity. He made contacts with anyone he deemed
necessary, issued warnings, and informed the worlds leaders on
Russias position. He spoke with anyone who wanted to discuss his
agenda.
If we evaluate Turkeys current situation, it can be seen that we have
limited opportunities on our southern border. There is not much we
can do aside from sealing our borders and implementing tighter
security measures. Alternately, we can also reduce our fossil fuel
imports in order to lessen unnecessary dependence on our northern
neighbor.
Prinkipo, Istanbul 11/19/15

Turkish voters opted for stability and security

on 1st November General Elections
On 1 November 2015, I was one of thousands of volunteers for Oy
ve tesi (Vote and Beyond), an independent group of observers
operating at polling stations throughout Turkey. We eight volunteers
from different educational and social backgrounds came together
between 6:45- 19:00 on Sunday in a high school classroom for a
common purpose.
Coming from very different walks of life, we had never seen each
other before. We collected a total of 374 votes, counted them,
recorded them, and certified them. I believe in democracy, for as long
as we have the freedom to choose, everything will improve in time by
way of mutual communication and the desire to understand one
another.
In Turkeys November 1st general elections, the average populace
prioritized security and stability in an ever increasingly volatile
geography.
I continue to be optimistic for our markets. We do not have the luxury
to say, aprs moi le deluge (after me, the deluge).
I would say that when the appropriate time comes, then we shall be
able to prioritize market transparency, accountability, independent

monitoring, rule of law, separation of powers, freedom of expression,

and independent free media, and it is at that time when we can
engage in better practices of parliamentary democracy, the results of
which will allow for a better future.
***
Let me tell you a story you from the distant past. It was years and
years ago. As a major contracting company, they were never able to
get any orders from big public sector organizations. No matter how
much they bid and bid, and fulfilled all the necessary requirements, in
the end they never got any positive results.
One day a gentleman came to their office. He said, Make a
consulting agreement with me and let me provide you with full
information on the tender. They signed an agreement with his
company in Panama and sent a lump sum of money to their offshore
account for consulting services.
After this, a new tender was opened, everything was kept extremely
secret. All interested parties were required to submit their proposal
dossiers in sealed envelopes. They all handed in their documents 5
minutes before the closing time of the tender.
After their proposal documents were submitted, they were requested
to leave the offices immediately in order to avoid any undesired flow
of verbal information. Client locked their doors behind us. Everything

was arranged behind closed doors. Participants were later asked to

declare a second, lower bid price. Blind price quoting without any
inside information on competitors has no meaning. However, on that
evening, their consultant sent a fax to Company's Ankara office
containing all the information on their rivals prices.
If there is an information leak within a public institution, it most likely
originates from the top, as the lower cadres wouldnt dare to engage
in such an activity. Such occurs not only in our geography, but all over
the world.
As a young engineer who recently graduated from university, I
thought that this must be the way things work. Since then, time has
passed, all of those top decision makers have retired, and the public
company at hand was privatized, sold and eventually disappeared
from the market. Over all of these years, these archaic procedures
have continued and improved.
Today we see new procedures. Your applications for tenders will not
be answered unless you are close to the top political administrators,
so you should look for new opportunities in Russias remote regions
or in the Middle East. Considering this, how can we continue to run
businesses in such a fragile economy? Can we bear the burden of
ever increasing costs? The system has been closed and locked, and
hence the economy and investment climate are also inaccessible.
Even the works of the privileged few have faced this reality.

***
Ive had a difficult time understanding why we have shrouded natural
gas prices in secrecy for so many years. I have also always envied
the high investment placed in education by our northern neighbor
Russia,

their

skilled

mathematicians,

their

excellent

market

strategists. Our human capital has difficulty in matching theirs when it

comes to trade negotiations in particular. Moreover, this is augmented
by the fact that we should drastically and urgently reduce our
dependence on their fuel supply. They will surely exploit our
disadvantageous situation as long as this dependence continues.
If a trade agreement is kept behind closed doors, there is always
some aspect thereof that goes against the peoples common benefit,
there is always some aspect that favors top decision makers. The
details of the Turkish Stream and Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas
Pipeline (TANAP) negotiations are still unclear.
What shall we receive in return for what we concede? What will be
the extent of this, our northern neighbors Christmas gift?
We know that Russian President Vladimir Putin has an Ph.D. degree
in energy economics. There are rumors that ghost writers brought
together the wording of his academic dissertation. Anyhow, that is his
thesis. Nonetheless, he completely assimilated the content of
academic discipline with his office. Compared to his preparations, our

decision makers fumble when it comes to academic and practical

learning.
At the end of WWII, regardless of the huge human losses they paid
on the eastern front, our northern neighbor crushed the last
resistance of the Nazi German Army in May 1945. They then turned
to the Far East and crushed the Japanese Army in Manchuria in
August 1945. Similarly, the country has now entered with its full
weight into the Syrian theater in the most recent phase of the conflict.
They have come to Syria for a long, if not permanent stay. Syria is
now commencing a long-term accession to Russian territory as had
also been the case for Eastern Europe and Manchuria. We do not
have weapons that can counter Russias SU-30 fighter planes or its
T-90 war tanks. We should have designed and manufacture these
weapons much earlier. Theres nothing more we can do right now
other than trying to remain peaceful and independent.
***
The transatlantic superpower of the United States has no intention of
interfering in the Syrian Civil War, nor does it need to become
embroiled in any international conflict before the 2016 presidential
elections. For a long period of time, it has pursued a policy of
indifference towards us in our relations. In international relations,
indifference is worse than insult. Leaders meeting on 15-16
November this year for the G20 Summit in Antalya, Turkey have no

serious agenda. Western Leaders will come and go all in one-day.

They will talk about popular and easy topic, "Global Warming". They
will talk about important issues among themselves in bilateral
meetings, and the only thing that we will supply during the G20
Summit is the daily catering and hotel services.
On the other hand, Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad has already
completed his mission. It makes no difference whether he stays or
goes, Syria is now falling under Russian domination. We have limited
capabilities when it comes to dealing with events south of our border.
There is not much we can do. We can close our borders and we can
limit or block passage between us. We are trapped to the south. The
only thing we can do is to reduce our dependence on imported
energy, imported fossil fuels, and imported natural gas.
***
Our general elections were held at the beginning of this month on 1
November 2015. As long as we have the freedom to choose in free
elections, we should believe in and trust the common sense and
common wisdom of the voters of this nation. We must understand
that in these elections the voters opted for stability and security,
which they have desperately needed in recent days.
Prinkipo, Istanbul, 05 November 2015

What is the greatest national security threat

to the United States?
On the evening of October 13, 2015, CNN organized the first Debate
among Democrat Party 2016 Presidential candidates in the LasVegas
CNN studio. In the Debate, there was an important question which
revealed one growing importance in politics.
The program moderator Anderson Cooper, asked the US Democratic
Party presidential candidates,
"What is the greatest national security threat to the United States?"
Hillary Clinton said, "I think it has to be continued threat from the
spread of nuclear weapons, nuclear material that can fall into the
wrong hands."
Bernie Sanders, who is the new entrant to compete,
"The scientific community is telling us that if we do not address the
global crisis of climate change, transform our energy system away
from fossil fuel to sustainable energy, the planet that we're going to
be leaving our kids and our grandchildren may well not be habitable.
That is a major crisis." he said.
Ref. CNN.COM

Bernie Sanders, reminds us the new British Labor Party Chairman

Jeremy Corbyn. He served in the United States House of
Representatives and the United States Senate for many years. He is
defined as "Self-proclaimed Social Democrat" and early polls say that
he is the most popular Democrat candidate after Hillary Clinton. He is
a senior Jewish American politician. Do rich American Jews vote for
him? It is unlikely.
Ranking of the most important danger for the US, as "Climate
Change" was very remarkable indication to put into the deal.
Henceforth the other candidates will pay more attention to "Climate
Change", more on global warming, less burning of fossil fuels, and to
the reduction of CO2 emissions.
The rise of environmentalist politicians continue. The politicians who
pay less attention or ignorant to environmental sensitivity on "Climate
Change", decrease their chances to win.
On the other hand, particularly in Europe and the US, there is no
drastic measure yet taken to reduce carbon emissions,

not to

mention the scandal about VW's emissions. "Climate Change" does

not concern at all the people of the United States. The price of
gasoline is dropped to $ 1.95 per gallon. 5.6 liter V-8 motor vehicles
are very popular.

You can not find everyone, saying "Let us leave

our big cars, and let's take a public vehicle".

Realities and needs of the people of Turkey are different. "There are
a million issues to improve before the carbon emissions," one might
say. Current Account Deficient is high, there is terror, fragile economy,
market disturbance, difficulty in financing projects. According to world
2010 statistics, the US is still leading the way with 17 tons of annual
CO2 emissions per person. Turkish latest figures were published for
4-5 tons per person per year. However on each platform, "Climate
Change" is entering the agenda.
US President Barack Obama, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and
other G7 leaders have taken serious decisions about prevention of
"Climate Change" in the latest G7 conference in Germany. In
upcoming 20-November G20 leaders' meeting, this issue will certainly
be on the agenda again. By reducing the use of fossil fuels, one
should talk about price and market deterrence. Fossil fuels will be
subject to import taxes, or the existing tax will be increased. Market
observers foresee the escape from fossil fuels in the near future.
USA, China, India, South Korea, they put tax on imported coal they
receive. They even have imposed the existing tax two- three fold. The
purpose of the tax on imported coal, and fossil fuels provide market
deterrence, subsequently to make indigenous and renewable energy
sources more attractively priced.

This issue will surely be the G20 leaders meeting agenda in Antalya,
Belek. We, Turkish team, have to be well prepared. G7 partners can
make a drastic decision. Countries that can not decide their
strategies, are to adapt to the decisions of others.
Everywhere in the world, all fossil fuel firing thermal power plant
investors are placed to avoid the domestic tax on imported coal by
lobbying. They try to prevent tax. But that remains in the past.
In upcoming December 2015 Climate Change Conference to be held
in Paris, it is expected to get commitments to reduce carbon
emissions from each country. Each country is making own
preparations in this regard. Turkey is also making preparations for
sure. We, the people away from politics, do not know what the
government and relevant ministries get prepared. But surely there is
a preparation.
There are suggestions from various sectors in this regard. One of
these proposals is put imported coal and imported natural gas to the
carbon tax, to collect funds, then to utilize these funds for power from
renewable energy sources - that are to be fairly and properly used in
the development of energy generation from wind and sun sources.
Thus, we can reach to the pronounced targets for carbon emissions,
growth / development. Utilization of indigenous lignite and more

renewable, domestic sources of wind- solar power, with local

engineering are essential to realize more domestic manufacturing.
Investors are to make calculations and market predictions carefully to
foresee the future of imported coal, and imported fossil fuels based
on growing concerns on "Climate Change". If they can not foresee
the future, they must share the risk with others by hedging to stay
safe financially. If the control valve remains at the mercy of foreign
countries, if your current account deficit is at unbearable levels, then
you should stay away from imported fossil fuels in the future, and you
should try to reduce your dependence.
There is no need for more investment in natural gas pipelines, no
need for further investments on imported coal. It is all investors' risk.

No matter what investors do, do as you wish, but please do keep us

out of this, and do not come to public authorities to save you and pay
you for your incorrect decisions.
Prinkipo, Istanbul, 16 October 2015

Who is Jeremy Corbyn?

UK general elections were held on 8 May 2015. The Labour Party
has lost the elections and the leader Ed Miliband resigned. Jeremy
Corbyn is elected in British Labor Party Chairmanship as of 12
September 2015 with 60 percent of delegate votes. He held no
serious public post in the past. His rivals have took him seriously. The
minimum number signatures, 36-delegates needed for the nomination
were provided almost at the last minute. Jeremy Corbyn had support
of young delegates who were using social media. They almost
ignored the traditional media.
Jeremy Colby, was born in 1949 to an electrical engineer father and
math teacher mother, as the fourth and the youngest child. He has
completed his secondary education with good grades. He attended
North London Polytechnic but soon he left his university education.
So he has no college degree. Then he worked in a voluntary program
in Jamaica the next two-years. He is against war, against nuclear
weapons, against the construction of nuclear intercontinental ballistic
missiles Trident. He is against war in Afghanistan, Iraq. He is against
the bombing of Syria.
He is against to the use of fossil fuels in thermal power plants, shale
gas fracking, and drilling. He is agaist to nuclear power plants. He
was against to apartheid policy in South Africa, so from time to time
he was arrested for his picketing. He was actively involved in the

process of international persecution of Chilean dictator Pinochet, and

the Chilean government of human rights violations. For many years,
he writes weekly column to explain his political views in British leftists
"Morning Star," newspaper.
He has married for three times. He had three children from his
second wife. He wanted to get their children in public schools,
although his second wife preferred private schools , so they end their
marriage. His first wife was a communication professor. His second
wife was a Chilean refugee. His third wife is Mexican emigree. He
speaks Spanish fluently. He follows the literature of Latin America
closely.
He has no car. He rides bicycle. Since 1983, he won 7-elections held
in his constituency at North London. He has beard for 33-years as
the member of the House of Commons. He is one of the rare bearded
member of Parliament. Since his job in a pig farm at when he was 20year-old, he is a vegetarian, he does not drink. He comes from the
Christian tradition, but he believes to be in an equal distance from all
belief. He is Atheist and Republican. So he does not sign the national
anthem starting "God save the Queen", but stay respectfully silent.
He is not against the Royal British Monarchy, nor against the concept
of the European Union. But he wants Britain to be distant to Nato
military obligations. He has the least spending budget while working
as a member of parliament. His office is rent from a charity. He lives

a very modest life. Outside parliament he does not wear a tie. He

buys cheap wearing simple plain dresses. He participated to a TV
program with sweater that his mother has made. He supports animal
rights activists. He is approaching gay rights with the tolerance. He
recently formed a

"shadow cabinet" with

half of members were

female parliamentarians.
Let us come to his attention to Turkey. He is one of the members of
the European Parliament who prepared "Human Rights Report in
Turkey" after 12.September coupe. This report dated 1983 had very
serious human rights criticism to the nasty events that took place in
that period with adverse reactions in Turkey. He knows details of
human rights violations in Turkey in the past. He voices those
criticism in the British parliament. He wants to

end

university

tuitions. He wants each and every student be able to play a musical

instrument during secondary education. He supports more budgets
for Art, opera, music. He plans to remove 500m of spending cuts
on culture. Art is essential to human beings, he says. He says,
government should allocate more public funds for The BBC
broadcasts on money for art- culture.
He wants to take more taxes from many high earners.
He wants to erase austerity measures, so that poor will not be
affected.
He wants to take serious measures against tax avoidance, and tax
evasion.

He supports renewable energy. He supports employment on offshore

platforms.
He wants to increase minimum wage to not less than 10 per hour.
He speaks always very seriously, not doing much humor.
He wants to renationalize the Privatized railways. He supports the
renationalization of power plants again. He wants to freeze the rental
price. He is looking positive to the arrival of refugees. It advocates the
unification of Northern Ireland with the south. He says it is necessary
to open dialogue with the Palestinian organizations Hamas and
Hezbollah, since one can make peace negotiations with dialogue.
Argentina and the Falkland Islands should be joint management, he
says. Conservative prime minister, David Cameron says, Jeremy
Corbyn bears "national security risk". In this era of caotic world
environment, it is so interesting and exciting to have such an
unconventional party leader. We understand that British voters are
tired of conventional politics, and labour delegates voted for a
realistic, left-wing politics. If the economy goes worsened, he may
have more chance of winning the next elections. The next elections is
after five years of regular general elections.

Do we need such

leaders in all climates? We wish success to the new British Labour

party leader in 2020 elections.
Prinkipo, Istanbul, 29 September 2015

Who is an International "Energy Analyst"?

What does s/he do? What is the job description?
In year 2007, after a few trial web releases, Ankara based
International Strategic Research Organization (ISRO), a reputable
well-established Turkish think-tank institution started to publish my
articles regularly on their web site "turkishweekly.net". Articles were
mainly on subjects "energy, thermal power plants". My personal
archives were full of energy documents which were accumulation of
many years of my professional experience in energy business, and
they were largely in English.
International Strategic Research Organization (ISRO) website
authors were using "Strategic Analysts" title in their

articles on

"International Relations". I preferred to use "Energy Analyst" title

same as foreign authors who were writing on energy issues. After a
while, local media asked me to write similar articles in Turkish
language to publish on printed paper as well as on their web sites.
Now I am writing weekly articles in both languages. If an article in
web gets enough hits from readers, then it is copied in other web
sites as Op-Ed (Opinion Editorial) or title and link address, within
"friendly share" principles.
In my Turkish column, from time to time, I preferred to write on some
other topics, such as on opera, wine, food, artisan restaurants to

create some diversity in my writings. In principle, I try to avoid to

appear on TV screens, similarly I am reluctant to participate to radio
programs. I only accept invitations for university panels on energy
programs.
Let us explain who the "Energy Analyst" is. What is the job
description? What are the qualifications? These issues are not yet
very clear. In our country, we are familiar with "financial analyst",
"business analyst" or "military analyst" as job description. But the
"energy analyst" is a new concept. "Analyst" definition is preferred in
USA in recent years to replace "expert, consultant, specialist" terms.
On US TV programs, any person who is invited to explain any issue
is named as "Analyst" of that subject.
Edward Snow, who released confidential classified documents to
public, has worked as "strategic analyst" on a contractual basis in
these government institutions. Famous TV name Lieutenant-Colonel
Ralph Peters,

prefers his title as "Military analyst" in his Fox-TV

programs. World famous CNN Commentator CNN, Wolf Blitzer,

prefers to be named as "political analyst". Daniel Yergin and Fatih
Birol, are two major international names as "Energy analysts" who
helps us expanding our horizons in energy business.
An "Energy Analyst" is not a "Consultant", nor an "Advisor". "Advisor"
is the definition used for the staff that is close to the public figures in

our environment. In our country, many young people are advisors, or

deputy counselors of old-school politicians to help them as their
foreign language translators, or in their personal web site design,
social media support in political activities. The most important job of
the advisors is try to find solutions to personal problems of voters,
such as finding appropriate hospital /Medical Doctor, a available
place in student dormitories, job for an unemployed,

train/ plane

tickets in rush time, night stay in a public guesthouses. Advisors or

deputy counsellors also prepare draft text for a public speech for the
politician, information note, twitter, Facebook messages on behalf of
the public figure.
In the private sector, new retirees from public sector are hired as
"Consultants" or "Advisers" to the board of directors of

private

companies, as long as the newcomer retiree has still the market

value of his capabilities and keeps his/her contacts in the public posts
to make the relations easy for the organization. In most Western
European countries and North America, "Energy Analyst" is someone
with vast information and experience on on energy issues where he
continuously analyzes the situation using analytical methods together
with his professional colleagues. "Energy Efficiency", "Renewable
Energy", "Energy consumption", "Energy saving", "Energy Balance",
"Energy Audit"

are covered in their studies of their economic

models. In case of any false analysis, the "Analyst" is the sole

responsible person who will loose the market credibility. If experience

is the key issue to supply, then Consulting is the key word to use the
job description.
Consultant does not know everything. S/he advises on the speciality
such as technical, financial, legal, marketing. The job can be
freelance, part-time or permanent, as modified with the demand to
that speciality and the project. The important thing is the value of the
experience and the advise supplied to the end client. The Consultant
may furnish project feasibility, report energy policy, energy strategy
and market analysis based on the prevailing market situations.
Decisions should be taken by the client as executive action and
Consultants should not be the decision makers.
So what/ who is an "Energy Analyst"?
Definition is given by Google search is as follows,
An "Energy Analyst" gathers the market information, evaluates,
makes strategic predictions, observes prevailing market prices,
follows the trends, puts them in writing for printed or web media
sources so that these informations help investors for their new
investments, directing decision-makers on energy issues, producing
common solutions for the energy markets, informing the public
institutions.
"Energy Analyst" does not know everything, even more s/he does not
know everything correct. It is important to make an interpretation as

starter for a decision making process. If there is a review good or

bad, then there is an opportunity to refine and update that review to
make it better. Physical realities do not change. But social or
economical believes do vary depending on geography, time, society.
The social truth generally accepted in Saudi Arabia, may be
perceived wrong in New Zealand. A normal situation for everyone in
Istanbul, may be interpreted differently in Diyarbakr or Artvin.
Similarly a notion generally accepted in 100 or 200 years ago, may
not be the same today.
My interpretation is that professional support of an "Energy Analyst" is
a mostly short term investment. But in case of longterm projects
"Energy Analyst" can work in Company's full-time staff. They can
work in fixed or flextime conditions. Technical training in the university
is not enough to be an "Energy Analyst". An Energy Analyst should
work in energy business for many years as operator, project
manager, negotiator, implementer, to get experience in every
responsibility.
Does "Energy Analyst" earn enough money in this business? In
developed countries, response is "Yes". An "Energy Analyst" gets
reasonable amount money for the reports, articles, forecasts,
recommendations. If employed for special projects, they earn money
on

daily

basis

plus

reimbursement

for

living

in

4-5

star

accommodation and business class traveling expenses. The figures

are now almost standard, and there is not much bargaining. If these
expenses are not paid, then there is no premium service available for
the demanding party. As everywhere, we have companies in Istanbul,
serving international companies, in this context. Earlier there were
many

international

"Energy

Analyst"

posts

in

"Linkedin.com"

professional social medium in foreign environment, but not local

names. Now our local energy companies, local investment groups,
banking sector get used to "Energy Analyst" post as their staff. We
hope that in the future, we shall see them further institutionalized.

Oberstdorf, Germany, 08 June 2015

Migratory birds are passing through Istanbul

In summertime, if you are in Bykada (Prinkipo), I would
recommend you to climb Hagia Yorgi hill. Peak is about 200-meter
high above sea level. It is located at the south end of the big island
Bykada. It has a steep slope relatively challenging to walk up. It is
about 970-meters long from the Union (Birlik) Square below up to the
Monastery gate.
There is a specific ritual to climb on the stone paved road up. You do
not look behind, you do not talk, you walk in a slow uninterrupted
pace, and you pray to your creator. You pray for wellbeing of your
family, your children, your nation. Without interruption, you reach to
the top within 20-25 minutes. You will then enter the Monastery, lid
candles, and pray again. Your religion is not important. Hagia Yorgi
Father accepts all prays from all believers. Then relax. You go the the
nearby Cafe named "YceTepe", you drink tea, even you can ask for
lunch or dinner with special wine. You can watch the scenery of the
Sea of Marmara. All your wishes are realized over time.
In the last half of August and continued in the first half of September,
during hot summer daytime you will see a small black spot ever
getting bigger on the horizon of

the European side of Northern

Bosphorus. They slowly approach to your island, and stop on the pine
trees of Hristos (Christ) hill. These are migratory birds. They stop for

1-2 hours, they rest a while then they hunt, feed themselves. They
come from Northern Europe, follow the shoreline of Romania,
Bulgaria, the northern coast of Thrace, Kilyos, the Rumeli
LightHouse, the Anatolian lighthouse, east side of Bosphorus,
Kadky, then they land at Bykada. They wait until the morning if
they come at night. If you take a walk late at night in the foothills of
Hristos hill, you hear the sounds of migratory bird beaks on top of
high pine trees. Thousands of migratory birds take off in the morning,
to the south direction passing Yalova, Central Anatolia, Iskenderun
Samanda the Suez Canal, the Nile valley, in the end they they are
scattered to Southern Africa, south of Equator.
Then come the months of April and May, over the same route they
return to Europe. They are flying the same route for millions of years
since ice age. These are storks, flamingos and other migratory birds.
Total numbers are estimated to be around 5-million. This year it was
on August 26th the first time I watched them at the top of Hagia Yorgi
peak. However it was recorded that first observation was on August
6th. They pass by every day at lunchtime. Hot weather gives them
the opportunity to glider, with more than flapping, the more energy
saving, while they fly over long distances.
Nature has given them a genetic route, they follow the nature, there is
no way to change. However this route crosses the landing strip of the
new third airport in Istanbul. Is it possible to change their

bird

migration routes as stabilized over millions of years? If we make

some noise, or do some other interference, do you think that the
migratory birds can change their

routes which dictated on their

genetic codes?
***

We all know that Istanbul needs a new airport with higher passenger
capacity. In order to fulfill that need, a new airport site is selected by
the high political decision makers on the Black Sea coast of
European side of Istanbul, between Yeniky and Akpnar villages.
The new airport will have six independent landing tracks with overall
150 million passenger capacity when completed in year 2019.
In the selected site, we had empty abandoned quarry pit from old
depleted stone mines. Now these 100-150 meter deep pits are
quickly filled, many piles are driven down to make the strips stronger
for the airplanes to land. This size empty land was not available
elsewhere in the immediate vicinity of Istanbul. At first sight, land
seemed a good choice.
The third airport in Istanbul will be the largest tender in the history of
the Republic for the construction contract which was issued in 2013.
There was a fierce rivalry in the tender. The highest bid in the tender

was with final price at 22 billion 152 million Euro- by JV group formed
by local construction companies. The biggest ever in the Turkish
banking history, although the foreign parties were ignorant to
requests, the necessary Project Finance is finally secured by local
sources syndicate.
Now the new airport is under construction started with excavation.
New third Bosphorus bridge and link roads are being built. Istanbul
needed a new bigger airport. All

is taking place at the price of

clearing large trees and deforestation. Public Administrators and

political decision-makers say that slaughter of large trees will be
compensated by re-planting trees and green landscaping in time.
All well and good, however what shall we do with over 5-million
migratory birds which use the same route since the ice age?
Migratory birds are the nightmare at airports throughout the world,
they become a nightmare for the aircraft. If the landing strip is on their
genetic route, they hit the cockpit window, they enter into the turbine,
they harm the wing. All these incidents are recorded many times.
Aircrafts get damaged, airplanes experience dangerous accidents.
After the airport is put into operation, the control tower of the new
airport will have to be in continuous vigilance against migratory birds.
In some months of the year, it may be necessary to close the airport
for long-term.

As described in the Environmental Impact assessment (EIA) report

regarding the airport project, the great concern was raised due to the
construction activity which takes place on the existing forest that will
highly damage to the ecological system in the region. Construction
crest will lose their ability to be in the wetlands of the depleted lake
area to be dried at the beginning of the project. The alternative new
airport project to Ataturk Airport was actually in Silivri. State SeaPorts
& AirPorts Authority (DLH) has already completed their project work
to do here much earlier before. They have allocated land, they began
to wait in due course.
Moreover there were some additional procedures to be done to
increase capacity at the Ataturk Airport, they must first do these
homework. As international civil aviation authorities dictate, Cargo
Terminal of Ataturk Airport should be moved to orlu airport which is
located at the center of Thrace, some 60-kms west. Private jet
hangers, and civilian air traffic had to be moved to orlu airport also.
Air Force igloos, war plane shelters, Air Force housing, Air Force
Academy should be evacuated and moved to another appropriate
and more comfortable air terminal site. Florya highway should be
taken underground by open-shut method, and more space could be
allocated for the existing airport for new capacity increase extensions.
Ayamama creek which passes nearby, should be diverted, and
divided into left- right branches to avoid floods.

Aviation experts advise to avoid the new airport during bird migration
time intervals. You should better choose Sabiha Gken International
(SAW) airport which is comfortably situated on the Asian side of
Istanbul. There are several measures taken by the commercial
airlines in this regard. Qatar and Jordan airlines have already moved
to Sabiha Gken. They do not use Ataturk airport (IST). Due to high
price paid in the past bird clash accidents in other parts of the world,
Lufthansa seriously considers to move to SabihaGken permanently
for long term. Cheap flight operators, Anadolu Jet, EasyJet, Pegasus,
SunExpress, Bora Airlines, German Wings, Germania, Corendon
Airlines already have been here since the beginning.
Investors have seen the risk of migration of migratory birds. They
work with scientists who have serious publications on bird migration
issues. They began working with ornithologists. International Air
Transport Association (IATA) will make severe safety inspections
within the scope of air control and security.
Migratory birds will appear every year during April-May and AugustSeptember. They take flight from the vicinity of the new airport
runway. The chosen venue is very risky, because of bird migration. If
the airport would be insufficient to meet the passenger capacity, in
some way there would be new agenda to increase the capacities of
Sabiha Gken and orlu Airports in future.

Nature stubbornly refuses to accept men-made enforcements. You

can not supersede natural laws, with your men-made artificial laws.
Nature will always govern in the long term. Now we all shall live, learn
and have experience again.
Prinkipo, Istanbul, 07 October 2015

Munich 1943, Sophia Scholl

Sophia Scholl, a young German girl, was born in 1921 and died in
1943. She was executed by guillotine. What did she do to be
condemned to this dreadful punishment?
In Germany, you'll see her name on the streets and many educational
institutions. Her marble bust is in a large hall at the University of
Munich, where she was caught while distributing leaflets.
In recent years her name has been included in top-10 lists of German
public opinion surveys asking who was the most influential person in
German history". A YouTube search for her name will turn up a
German-made film depicting her life with English subtitles.
The setting is Munich in 1942. Sophia was the youngest daughter of
a large German family in wartime Germany. She listened to the radio,
sang the trending songs, and wore the appropriate fashion -- the
same as allgirls who followed the popular culture of the day. She was
studying Biology at the University of Munich. Due to the state
censorship and propaganda, they were not aware of a terrible
conditions of the war.
Her elder brother, Hans, was studying medicine at the University of
Munich. Medical school students were assigned to internships in

hospitals for the summer. They were sent by train with German
soldiers sent to the war front at Stalingrad. Medical students were not
aware of the harsh realities of the war when they found themselves in
the terrible conditions of the war zone.
Summer ended, the internship ended, and the students came back to
Munich. The Battle of Stalingrad was far away. However, all of the
student interns returning from the war front were in shock. They
started to tell family members and trusted close friends about the
things they had seen. They wanted to be heard. They collectively
drafted an announcement explaining the situation in the war zone.
They copied the one-page announcement with a simple mimeograph,
and started to distribute the leaflets to college dormitory rooms,
slipping them under the door without being seen.
Sophia was doing all of these things. She edited, copied, duplicated,
and helped distribute. There were six announcements in total. They
were caught in the university hall by a college janitor, and delivered to
the Gestapo. The Gestapo conducted a brief interrogation and then
drove them to court.
The trial began in the morning, continued in the afternoon, and ended
on the same day. They were found guilty of treason and condemned
to death.

Wikipedia says,

"Sophia Magdalena Scholl (9 May 1921 22

February 1943) was a German student and revolutionary, active

within the White Rose non-violent resistance group in Nazi Germany.
She was convicted of high treason after having been found
distributing anti-war leaflets at the University of Munich with her
brother Hans. As a result, they were both executed by guillotine.
Since the 1970s, Scholl has been celebrated as one of the great
German heroes who actively opposed the Third Reich during the
Second World War."
Prison officials emphasized the courage with which she walked to her
execution. Her last words were: "How can we expect righteousness
to prevail when there is hardly anyone willing to give himself up
individually to a righteous cause. Such a fine, sunny day, and I have
to go, but what does my death matter, if through us, thousands of
people are awakened and stirred to action?"
What happened next? Allied intelligence agencies duplicated the 6th
announcement, and distributed millions of them by aircraft over
German skies. To read and keeping this document during the last
days of the war in Germany was an act of treason.
Today, in Germany as well as in other western democracies,
criticizing the current political powers is the most natural of political
rights. Freedom of speech, freedom of thought, freedom of

expression, and freedom to criticize are constitutional rights to be

practiced in response to any wrongdoing of the elected political
power.
***
Monarchy, absolute rule, and absolutism are rules of the past. We no
longer live under those conditions. We shall not return to those times.
However, we inevitably think of the governmental responses to the
recent public uprisings in the Middle East. Citizens have lost their
lives, their eyes, been detained, been beaten. We ask "why did they
deserve all this?"
What is wrong with defending green parks, with reacting to new
shopping malls? How can we determine the truth if we do not
scrutinize or criticize properly? The average educational level of the
voters of this land is around the fifth grade. With that level of
education, how can we trust the critical decisions being taken by
elected representatives without any scrutiny? For whom do these
elected few work for? Only for their voters? Or for the entire nation?
We are the people of the business world. We wish our government to
make the right decisions on our behalf. We want our government to
be successful. Our government does not have the luxury of making
bad decisions. If the government fails then the country fails and we all

fail. In his latest important book, titled Why Nations Fail, our worldfamous economist Daron Acemoglu points out that democratic
institutions, freedom of speech, and freedom of expression are
indispensable for the development and well-being of societies.
We all live in a global village. Everyone knows everything about
everyone. Were getting increasing (and repeated) warnings from the
U.S. Congress, from the White House, from the European
Parliament, from heads of states of Western democracies on the
importance of the "freedom of expression" of the ordinary citizens of
this land. In democratic systems, it is important to have independent
courts, a free press, separated powers, and pluralistic constitutions to
protect minorities.
We are afraid to face the long-term risks of exclusion from
international meetings of democratic countries. There is a high risk of
expulsion from the international community. There is also a high risk
of losing access to western sources of commercial financing. It is not
"precious solitude", but "isolation" that is, a purely diplomatic way of
saying exclusion or expulsion from the international community.
These are serious conditions that will certainly affect our development
and the well-being of our society in the long term.
Clashes

between

disproportional

brutality

and

disproportional

intelligence may lead to unexpected nasty consequences. [1] We

applaud correct measures, similarly we criticize mistakes in order to

get better decisions, something which benefits everyone. We have
the right to ask for the best for our society.
The right actions and the actions in the interests of politicians are not
always the same. We should address this with freedom of speech
and freedom of expression for all.
Prinkipo, August 24, 2013

It was early WWII period in Istanbul

They were two small girls. It was early WWII period in Istanbul.
Seaside district Caddebostan was very popular at summer time. Two
girls were in an old Ottoman mansion at the seaside, where the
Ministry of Education used this mansion as summer camp for
successful schoolgirls, as reward for their hardwork. Poor but
successful girls of elementary schools were invited based on their
accomplishments.
"Hadiye" was also one of those chosen successful few. Her mother
was the only surveyor of the wealthy family of Bosnia in WWI, who
were forced to leave their estates in one day with limited belongings.
She arrived to Istanbul after a long and dangereous walk for more
than 3000 miles. She had only her old aunt with her. In Istanbul, she
got married with Abdulkadir bey, Istanbul Fatih court staff. They had
one daughter, Hadiye. Abdulkadir Bey passed away shortly due to
early hearth attack. Mother Fatma Muzeyyen Hanim earned life as
tailor for housewifes of the district. Her only daughter Hadiye was a
shy, thin girl and very successful in the school.
The other girl was from rich strata of the other Istanbul. "Gnl" was
attending to a private expensive reputable elementary school in rich
Nisantasi district. Her father Abdurrahman Bey was a rich successful
businessman. He had a textile plant in Yesildirek to produce

underwares and its marketing organisation. Her mother was an

educated housewife with some rheumatismatic health problems. That
year parents decided to go to a health clinic in one of Romanian hot
springs. They decided to send Gonul to the same summer camp
provided that they pay some contribution for general expenses.
Two girls become friends shortly. Their beds were next to each other.
That summer was extraordinary time for them. They swam at the sea,
played together. They dreamed future, getting education, visiting
foreign lands, getting married, having children. Every morning they
looked at each others eyes in order to have a good day ahead.
At the end of the summer camp, they exchanged their postal
addresses, promising to write a letter each week, and they kept that
promise. One day, Gonul took the public tramway and she visited her
friend in their small house at the other end of the city. Mother Fatma
Muzeyyen hanim prepared a vageterian lunch for them since it was
only available with their budget. Later the day, they talked, played,
and walked at the nearby Zeytinburnu seaside.
The next week, the first time in her life, Hadiye took the tramway, and
came to the other end of the city, Harbiye ValiKonagi Street, very
popular rich section of the city. Gonul lived with her family in a new
apartment flat, next to Govener's mansion. Housemaids, cook, and
driver served them. They invited Hadiye to their weekend lunch.

Hadiye answered their questions in short and smart responses.

Family has happy for that friendship, and they encouraged for their
weekend meetings. In the afternoon, they walked down to the main
street and watched a new foreign film.
In the following 4-years, they exchanged reciprocal monthly visits and
weekly letters to each other. One day Gonul stopped sending letters.
Hadiye was so worried that she took public tramway and went to their
house. Door was openned by the elder sister. Ayse said the bad news
with pale white face. Hadiye left apartment and cried nonstop on the
way back, and more on the days after.
That springtime, parents decide to start cleanup and maintenance in
their summer house in the Prince Islands, on the Sea of Marmara,
near Istanbul. Gonul joins the helpers that weekend. Weather is
relatively hot. She decides to swim at the seafront. However on the
same day, the nearby senatorium disposes the dangereous winter
refuses into the sea. She gets infected, although immediately
hospitalised, but cannot be saved.
Hadiye never forgot her childhood girl friend. She prayed for her all
her life. She attended to schools and became a teacher on Turkish
Literature. She got married and had children.

On a hot summer night, on the same seashore of Istanbul, where that

big old Ottoman mansion was at the back, full moon raised between
the Prince Islands on the front, she told this story to her elder son.
Caddebostan, August 2005

"Abduction from the Serail",

at the Ankara State Opera House
"Die Entfhrung aus dem Serail" (or Il Seraglio)
Opera by Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart
One has to admire Yekta Karas staging of The Abduction from the
Seraglio at the Ankara State Opera House. I was frankly sceptical
about her previous productions, which I found unusual, not to say
maverick. This is different. It is, in a word, fantastic.
Elsewhere in the world, all the operas characters speak German. In
Ankara, each keep to his or her native tongue, and they all
understand each other. A first on stage, and possible only in Turkey.
While Selim Pasha and his servant Osman naturally speak in Turkish,
the English slave girl, Blonde, delivers in smooth, fluent English. And
Pedrillo, servant to the Spanish nobleman Belmonte, adopts broken
Turkish when he needs to make himself understood, but otherwise
speaks and sings in German. And so the opera is Turkified in a way
no other staging anywhere has ever before attempted.
Wolfgang Amadeus Mozarts Abduction from the Seraglio (Die
Entfhrung aus dem Serail in its original German, Il Seraglio in Italian,
and in Turkish Saraydan Kz Kairma) is an absolute gift to Turkish
opera lovers.

Belmonte (tenor), his beloved Konstanze (soprano), the servant

Pedrillo (tenor), and Pedrillo's girlfriend, Blonde (soprano), are
prisoners of Selim Pasha and are being held in the pasha's summer
mansion somewhere on the Mediterranean. The pasha's harem
guard, Osman, is the villain of the piece. There are lots of beautiful
harem girls and guards, everyone is dressed in authentic Ottoman
style, and we have a nice, happy ending.
This opera was one of the first with a German libretto. Audiences,
even those like the author with only elementary German, can easily
follow the simple, comic German conversation.

Premiered at the

Burgtheater in Vienna in 1782, it was an immediate success, though

Mozart made very little money out of it just 450 florins despite the
fact that the revenue from the first two performances alone was 1200
florins, and the opera is still making money today.
Sultan Abdlhamid I (1774-89) was on the Ottoman throne at the
time, and one wonders if the Ottomans were aware of the opera, and
if so, how comfortable they were with its criticism of the their
administration (though there are positive aspects). However, the first
Turkish Embassy in Vienna was only opened in 1916.
When Mozart composed the opera, almost a century had passed
since the second siege of Vienna and the citys narrow escape from
Turkish invasion. At the time of the siege, Vienna would have

resounded to terrifying Janissary war music coming from beyond their

gates.
Several generations later, Mozart managed to work this music into his
wonderful operatic tunes, using orchestras reinforced with a bass
drum, cymbals, triangle and recorder (nowadays replaced with a
piccolo).
Today the opera is regularly performed on European stages, and at
least eight CD recordings are available, including one starring
probably the greatest Konstanze of them all: the soprano Edita
Gruberova (Decca, 1985).
Yekta Karas staging benefits from wonderful authentic costumes and
fine theatrical performances, while the set design is plain, but
pleasing and realistic. While Selim Pashas performance is powerfully
theatrical, Osmans is rich in Turkish motifs, and in the parts of
Konstanze and Blonde, our sopranos compete with each other
brilliantly in gorgeous, flawless voices.
Ankara State Opera is to be congratulated for this truly extraordinary
new interpretation. Maybe one day it will be staged in Vienna itself,
just to show them: This is our opera.
This opera is not to be missed. Ankara, 10-March 2014

The Dilemma of Increased Greenhouse Gas Emissions

In June 2015 at the G7 Summit in Schloss Elmau Germany, the
group of the seven most advanced industrial powers have agreed
that the world should phase out the use of fossil fuels this century in a
move hailed as a historic decision in the fight against climate change.
The leaders of the US, Germany, France, the UK, Japan, Canada
and Italy said they supported cutting emissions by 40 to 70 per
cent from 2010 levels by 2050. The leaders also reaffirmed a
pledge to mobilize $100bn per year from public and private sources
by 2020 to help poorer nations tackle climate change. They warned
that emerging countries such as China would have to contribute to
reducing CO2 emissions. Ref.Reuters.
Developed

countries

are

becoming

worried

about

growing

Greenhouse Emissions as created by the increased number of

fossil fired thermal power plants in the developing (or emerging)
countries. However, the reason for increased greenhouse emissions
is not only to be found in the developing countries.
The United Nations 21st Climate Change Conference will be held in
Paris, France between 30 November and 11 December 2015.
Preliminary talks were held in Bonn, Germany between 1 and 11
June 2015.
The main purpose of the talks this year is to create a mutual
understanding on the preventive measures that will keep global

warming from exceeding 2 degrees Celsius as compared to preindustrial revolution levels of the 19th century. Prior to the
commencement of the Paris talks, backstage preparations are taking
place in international media circles as information is shared, new
solutions are being put forward and support for certain policies is
being voiced.
For last 100 years, developed countries have burned fossil fuels in
their thermal power plants without any major concern for global
warming. Their cumulative negative contribution to global warming is
extraordinarily high compared to the developing countries. However,
Turkeys emission of greenhouse gases has been a topic of
discussion over the past 10 years, especially in reference to its desire
to increase its number of coal fired thermal power plants that would
mainly make use of new imported coal firing technologies.
Over the last 10 years, there has been a significant increase in the
per capita CO2 equivalent gas emissions of developing countries.
Developed countries do not mention their own contribution to global
warming throughout history, but as the subject relates to developing
countries, they warn us to stop further investment in fossil fuel firing
thermal power plants. In the end, we are left wondering who will
initiate this trend to stop global warming. Without reflecting on their
own practices, every country expects others to take preventive
initiatives to decrease CO2 emissions.

On the other hand, we must continue energy development to

increase life expectancy, to better the future of our children and to
increase the prosperity of our society, hence in order to realize this
we must generate more energy and a greater electricity output.
Considering this we must fully utilize our indigenous fuel sources,
namely, domestic fossil fuels that largely consist of lignite.
Renewable energies such as wind, solar and hydro sources are also
to be tapped, but these sources cannot meet our base load energy
needs. In order to fulfill our base load requirements from renewable
sources, we need to invest in pumping storage hydraulic plants so
that we can utilize the cheap electricity for storage, and generate
reserve energy when electricity is scarce during peak seasons. Our
country has no such reserve plants yet and these investments cannot
be realized overnight.
Germany and Denmark have geographic advantages when it comes
to renewable energy investments. When there is no wind or the sun is
not shining, wind turbines and solar panels cannot fulfill these
countries base load demands; yet these countries can easily
purchase electricity from any neighboring country, whether produced
by nuclear energy from France or Switzerland or by thermal energy
from Poland.

Due to Turkeys geography, we do not have such

supply flexibility to reach our base load requirements in case of need.

We have only limited access to the Entso-E European electricity
transmission pool.

International environmentalist groups exhibit a seriously reactionary

attitude to our investment in expanding coal firing thermal power
plants. Everyone has wondered and inquired about our coal
investments, and they have warned us that we are increasing our per
capita CO2 equivalent gas emissions. We all know that increases in
greenhouse gas emissions will increase global warming, melt polar
ice, increase the sea level and potentially cause environmental
disasters.
In the past, no one was interested in Turkeys contribution to these
environmental problems seeing that we were frenziedly purchasing
thermal power plants from US or West European suppliers at high
prices. We were in a trapped market that worked to their benefit.
Later, China emerged as an ultra-cheap supplier of thermal power
plants whose design and quality were questionable when it came to
their long term operation and overall adherence to environmental
standards. Nonetheless, the market has shifted in favor of these lowprice suppliers at the expense of the once dominant US and Western
European firms. This has coincided with a time in which everyone has
become an environmentalist, warning and advising others to stop
investing in thermal power plants.
However, new thermal power plants can be designed employing
clean coal technologies that provide for lower emission rates and
less pollution while also allowing for the firing of local coal and

utilization of local engineering, local manufacturing and local

operation.
Bigger and more efficient dust filters and better flue gas
desulphurization equipment can also be installed in these plants
resulting in less greenhouse gases being emitted.
We all know that most of the worlds highest polluting thermal power
plants are found in developed countries; because they are old. They
need rehabilitation. Yet, countries do not want to invest in
environmental equipment as these investments bring no payback. On
the other hand, the thermal power plants in developing countries are
relatively new and are designed to make use of new and better
technologies and environmental equipment that meet more stringent
emission standards. All in all these plants pollute less.
Developed countries have unrestrictedly polluted the environment for
the last 100 years, whereby our impact in the last 10 years is
significantly less in comparison. The cumulative amount of CO2
equivalent gas they have emitted over the last 100 years is obviously
much more than that which we have produced over the last 10 years.
Moreover, the recent wars in the Middle East and the setting ablaze
of Kuwaiti and Iraqi oil wells have contributed to the global increases
of gas emissions in the atmosphere, yet we have had no involvement
in these wars.

Turkeys annual CO2 equivalent gas emissions per capita were

around 4.2 tonnes in 2010 and 6 tonnes in 2013. This drastic jump,
which we are not comfortable with, stems from our countrys imported
coal firing thermal power plant investments. The USAs per capita
CO2 equivalent gas emissions were 17 tonnes in 2010 whereas the
European Unions per capita average was 7 tonnes, with Germany
emitting 9.1 tonnes thanks to renewables and France 5.5 tonnes
thanks to nuclear power plants. Russia emitted 12 tonnes per capita.
Oil and gas producing countries which insist on generating electricity
via simple cycle gas or crude oil firing thermal power plants also
boasted high per capita emission rates, with Saudi Arabia emitting 17
tonnes and Kazakhstan 15 tonnes. China emitted 6.2 tonnes of CO2
equivalent gases per capita due to the increasing number of coal fired
thermal power plants put into operation in the country, and it has
shown no desire to assume responsibility in taking any preventive
initiative to curb its growing emission rates.
We must decide internally how to create the conference team in the
Paris Climate Change talks, preparing ourselves for the dialogue that
is to come. The participation and contribution of public officials alone
is insufficient. Local investors, who feel the pressure to protect the
global environmental tightening around their necks, should take the
event seriously and work with high profile academic and commercial
personalities to explain the energy situation they have at their end.
The unfortunate Kyoto experience should not be repeated in Paris.
We must decide on our national policies, draft our responses in a
timely manner and prepare to defend our national interests.

Those who cannot have a say in the policies formulated at the

conference will be subjected to the will of others.
Ref. COP21, in Paris in 2015 http://www.cop21.gouv.fr/en
Oberstdorf, Germany, 20 June 2015

"60-day non-stop operation" rule for new conventional

thermal power plants
"I'm not rich enough to buy cheap things", an old English saying.
Conventional thermal power plants (CTPPs) are designed to operate
for 30 years. In practice, however, CTPPs are not usually in operation
much more than 20 years. Moreover, those that operate beyond the
10-year mark without having undergone a major overhaul are quite
rare.

Today,

with

inexpensive

designs

and

poor

materials

applications, those plants which are supplied and installed by East

Asian contractors barely pass the 2-3 year trial period without
experiencing a major shutdown.
These new power plants are designed with low-quality specs and
practices. They have an insufficient number of spare parts, their
computer programs for combustion instrumentation and control are
inadequate, their blowers and fans do not work properly, and their
coal mills and electrostatic dust precipitator electrodes quickly erode.
The electrostatic dust precipitators that come with these plants are
designed so small that they do not meet the necessary international
minimum stack emission criteria, and their flue gas desulphurization
systems do not work properly.
Everything is indexed to the plant design to keep the overall price
very cheap. Such products, designs, and ultimately, thermal power

plants are seen neither in Western Europe nor North America. This
begs the question: Why do we deserve such plants that operate so
poorly? Why dont our regulatory authorities avoid and interfere when
it comes to such poor applications? Why dont local companies
design, manufacture, and construct new power plants? What is
stopping us?
Over the past few decades, the Turkish Electricity Authority has
continued implementing its famous "60-day non-stop operation rule,
therewith requiring that a new thermal power plant must operate nonstop for 60 days before being granted a temporary approval
certificate. By doing so, power plant contractors and sellers are to
prove the quality and reliability of their new plant before having their
product permitted to enter into the two-year trial period. The Turkish
Electricity Authority

is

unbundled

into

4-different

companies,

therefore, in the end, the electricity generation company EA still

enforces this requirement in their purchasing specifications although
it has no budget for new power plant investments. Now, let us review
in detail how this 60-day non-stop operation period is implemented.
- The new thermal power plant is first expected to operate 72-hours
non-stop at full capacity
- Within the remaining 60-day period, the plant is expected to operate
at a minimum 75% capacity

- Throughout the 60-day period, the plant should not stop (trip) more
than 5 times during continuous operation, and any would-be
interruptions should not exceed 24 hours
- If the thermal power plant cannot meet those two conditions within
the 60-day run, then the contractor is to make the necessary
improvements to the plant and begin the process again.
- The plant will commence the two-year trail period after successful
completion of the 60-day non-stop performance test
During the minimum two-year trial period, prior to final acceptance of
the power plant, the plant should work at least 5,000 hours at a
maximum continuous load capacity without major interruption and
3,000 hours of operation at 50% load must be satisfied.
The steam boilers and turbine generators of public thermal power
plants are tested in accordance with the German DIN-1942 and DIN1943 standards respectively. These conditions have later been
updated and modified according to new US-based EPRI rules. In
Turkeys domestic Electrical Installations Acceptance Regulation, as
released in our Official Gazette, No. 22280, in 1995, there are many
tests, rules, and regulations listed that must be completed and
adhered to before a thermal power plant is ultimately accepted.
However, the 60-day non-stop operation requirement is no longer
included in this list.

Today, new power plant investments are realized by private investor

companies. They are buying the cheapest plants and equipment
available on the international market, which are usually supplied by
East Asian contractors. Ultimately, suppliers need to present their
supplier credit financing for the projects that they are selling on the
international market and seeing that financing is the key factor of the
contract, the local investor company accepts whatever is delivered.
Moreover, considering that electricity generated during the initial test
runs are delivered to the national grid free-of-charge, private
investors prefer to shorten this period to 10-30 days, as opposed to
60 days.
These de-facto purchasing procedures are unsatisfactory in the long
run. After barely working for 2-3 years, the new plant plants become
problematic. They cannot be operated further without undergoing
major overhauls that are both expensive and time consuming. Their
equipment and instrumentations need to be renewed requiring new
spare parts to be ordered and purchased, whether coal mill grinders,
e/p electrodes, fans, blowers, feedwater pumps, the list goes on and
on.
The old English adage, I'm not rich enough to buy cheap things can
be found in some form or another in all languages. One should hire
independent reliable auditing firms to monitor and record the plant
acceptance procedure, and the 60-day non-stop operation process
should be required prior to new thermal, nuclear, or any other type of
power plant being granted access to the two-year trial period.

All in all, the plant design with appropriate domestic coal firing
capabilities cannot be left to the mercy of foreign companies that can
leave the country immediately after delivery. Domestic companies
should lead the power plant contracts with local project financing
services.
Ankara, 5th August 2015

Are Electricity Markets on the brink of bankruptcy?

The "Regulatory Asset Base" expression was defined and established
in 1990 in the United Kingdom to avoid financial difficulties of private
companies who were in the energy business. It is now the time that
this definition should be implemented into the local environment in
Turkey to avoid possible bankruptcies. The Regulatory Asset Base
(RAB) usually refers to the measure of the net value of a company's
regulated assets used in price regulation. It is used in calculating
important elements of the revenue requirements (the basis for the
tariff calculation), depreciation allowance and return on capital.
(Ref. Wikipedia)
An important article was released by The Hurriyet Daily on 8
September titled "Growing Financial Difficulties of Private Companies
in Local Energy Business".
Let us read the first paragraph of that article:
"Companies have paid 21.1 billion USD for the privatization of
electricity in Turkey since 2009. However, due to deteriorating
economic indicators and extreme value increase in the USD with
respect to the Turkish Lira, local companies are in a difficult financial
situation in repaying their debts to lenders. Turkish private distribution
companies are unable to pay their 7.7 billion USD debt, out of which
7 billion USD belongs to commercial banks. In the case of a collapse
in the repayment of their debts to the electricity markets, havoc will
occur in the banking sector." Ref. Hurriyet 8-Sep- 2015
http://www.hurriyet.com.tr/ekonomi/30011693.asp

Electric distribution companies are in default due to the fact that their
debts are in USD but their income is in Turkish lira, which has brought
them to the point of bankruptcy. They have asked public sources to
help them; however, there is a misinterpretation of the situation.
There's no crisis in this regard. There is a mismanagement and
miscalculation of the financial sources of the private companies who
were exposed to high debts.
These companies have exaggerated the incident when commenting,
saying, "Contracts have been made in US dollars, but the collections
were in Turkish Lira. The recent exchange rate differences brought
financial difficulty." Well, all contracts referenced were written in the
tender documents upfront. There is no change later. The companies
should make the calculations correctly to avoid such exposure to risk.
Markets regulate the private companies. Wisdom says that our
private investors know best, so why didn't these investors avoid the
increase in prices before the cutthroat exchange rates were in place,
and thus stop moving forward in the tender process? What was
preventing them? In the past, our electricity market was owned and
operated by public institutions. We used to have harsh criticism of
public institutions. Contracts were not progressing properly, they were
not completed on time, and they were completed incorrectly with
progress lacking. Thus, plants could not be run well.

Because power plants, transmission, distribution, and retail all were in

public ownership, they belonged to the public, to the nation, to us.
They were as if ours in the end. We, Turkish citizens, saw them as
our own property, we wanted them and hoped the best for them.
Authorities in the public companies were our friends, they agreed with
and accepted our criticism; they brought our feelings, writings, and
solutions to their in-house meetings, and they tried their best to make
the necessary upgrades.
Now the property has been passed to private investors. It is their
property. We have no obligations, no responsibility, no care. They
may operate or may not operate; they may shut it down if it is not
profitable. If they cannot operate it properly and they lose money and
go bankrupt and their property will be taken by the lending
commercial bank and resold to another competent company. We
have no obligation. So why are we entering such conversation? Why
does the regulatory agency EMRA enter into the conversation?
If an electricity generation plant or an electricity distribution system
cannot be operated efficiently, loses money or goes bankrupt, then
the lending bank gets the ownership and can sell it again to another
competent operator. There is nothing lost in the market. There is no
need to interfere with the ongoing commercial events outside. We
should leave the market forces to regulate the markets.
On the other hand, we do not know any news regarding the
necessary rehab works that need to be done in the existing privatized

power plants. Environmental exemption continues for the existing

plants. Plants are operated at full capacity at their highest availability
in order to get high cash income without spending much on
necessary environmental equipment. Necessary electrostatic dust
filter ESP upgrades and flue gas desulphurisation FGD purchases
are ignored. There is almost no additional spending other than
operation costs, fuel cost and employee salaries. Most of them have
inadequate Ash dams.
We have now more than 70K MWe installed on the records but most
of the public plants are not in operation. For example, 6 units out of 8
total in Afin Elbistan are not in operation. Rehab investments are
necessary for the privatized power plants, but such investments have
not yet been made. Yet the investors are going bankrupt in their
operation due to unplanned, inappropriate operation. Most of them
are operating with an unqualified and inexperienced engineering
capacity. Work barely goes ahead or, most of the time, they cannot
go forward at all.
In fact, it was a completely wrong decision to privatize the former
state power plants. Old power plants would have been run by the
public until the end of their useful lives. Private investors would be
required to set up a new plant. Existing natural monopolies cannot be
open to competition. Investors may win but society will surely lose.
The Minister of Energy of the past government left his job to a new
appointee until the snap elections, which are scheduled for 1

November. We had the opportunity to work with an experienced

minister who came from the energy business in the past. Now, we are
in transition period. If an investor cannot operate a plant or a
distribution system, we should let the market forces regulate the plant
and we should not interfere. In the meantime, we should learn more
about "regulatory asset base" terminology in order to run the
business better in the future.
Prinkipo, Istanbul, 29 September 2015

The new 'Soma Thermal Power Plant' debate

Site selection for the new Soma Thermal Power Plant
The Soma Deni leasing tender for a local coal firing thermal power
plant to be located next to the open pit coal fields was completed as
of August 2012 under a 49-year leasing scheme. The investor is
expected to spend 900 million US dollars to install a 3x150 MWe
thermal power plant that will utilize open pit coal from the nearby coal
field. The investor is expected to provide 25-30% equity and receive
75-80% external financing for the project. According to the preliminary
Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA), the new plant is to generate
3.5 billion kw-hours per year that will then be sold on the local energy
market.
The Soma Deni open pit coal field hosts 152 million tons of proven
coal reserves with each kg exhibiting a 1200-1500 kcal lower calorific
value. We estimate that proven reserves will be capable of feeding
the new thermal power plant for the next 20 years. The Deni coal
field also feeds as-received coal to the nr. 5-6 already existing units of
the Soma-B plant, each of which boasts a 165 MWe output capacity.
The new thermal power plant will be designed to employ super-critical
circulating fluid bed (CFB) technology in steam boilers as well as coal
crushers, electrostatic dust collectors, fresh air and induced fans (one
stack for all three units), an air-cooling tower, a flue gas
desulphurization

(FGD)

system,

turbine

generators,

main

switchyard, and main transmission lines that will connect to the

national grid. The plant will also be supplemented with a coal feeding
and coal storage yard, fly and bottom ash silos, and either an ash
dam or landfill area.
According to the contract that was signed between the highest bidder
and the Turkish Privatization Administration, the investor will have a
grace period to construct the plant that is not to exceed 6 years, and
after the plant begins to generate electricity it is to pay the Turkish
Treasury 4.69 Turkish kuru (approximately 1.76 US cents) per kwhour of electricity generated and sold to the national grid.
During its construction period, the plant will employ approximately
1,000 skilled and unskilled workers in total, yet when it comes online
it will need approximately 500 skilled workers to operate. Turkeys
Local Energy Market Regulatory Agency received the investors
license application together with the EIA, which consisted of 500+
pages detailing the environment in which the plant was to be
constructed, yet the Assessment did not mention the nearby olive tree
groves. The Assessment also outlined why the site near Yrca village
was selected. After the license application was approved, the
investing company entered the area and ruthlessly felled 6,600+ olive
trees. Politicians equated the 500 year-old sacred olive trees'
contribution to the society with that of the thermal power plant, which
would probably boast a 2-3 year uninterrupted life span. This was an
unfortunate comparison void of reasonable justification.

While we normally expect thermal power plants to run for around 30

years, for some reason, due to operation failures, they cannot exceed
20 years in practice without major overhauls or rehabilitation. Most of
the time, they even cannot even operate for 10 years without some
problem emerging.
Today, inexpensive and poorly designed thermal power plants barely
exceed the 2-3 year probationary periods without experiencing major
breakdowns. The extremely cheap price proposals of East Asian
contractors include poor designs, poor quality, insufficient spare
parts, insufficient number of feed pumps, and poor instrumentation
and control systems. When these plants enter operation, their coal
mills break down, their blowers cease to properly function, their
computers are quickly distorted, and their small electro filtration
systems prove inefficient; E/P electrodes erode quickly, and hence
they do not meet the desired flue gas dust limits; FGD units are
inadequate, and in the end they begin to pollute the nearby
environment, air, water, and soil.
In these inefficient and poor designs, everything is indexed to be the
cheapest. Such inefficient designs, with their poor quality and weak
material supply, do not meet North American or West European
standards. So why do we accept such poor deliveries? Why don't we
prevent their implementation through our supervisory authorities? And
most importantly, do we deserve such poor quality products?

Yrca farmers stood up to protect their farmlands, their centuries-old

olive trees, and their livelihoods and lifestyles; they applied to the
local courts to stop the construction of the thermal power plant on
their farmlands.
From the investors point of view, Yrcas farmlands were a prime
location for the plant. The land was located on a main highway close
to an already existing power plant, therefore the two plants would be
able to share facilities such as the switchyard and transmission lines.
It was also close to already existing coal feeding conveyor belts that
transported coal from the Deni coal fields to the existing power plant.
Yet from the Yrca farmers points of view, this could not have been a
worse choice. Other than offering limited employment opportunities
such as low-waged, unskilled guard posts, the new thermal power
plant would destroy the farmers agricultural land, olive trees, way of
life, and beautiful pastures. In the end, the farmers tragically lost their
olive trees, a sad and undesirable occurrence. The new olive trees
will need at least a few decades to mature and yield proper olives. A
political price will certainly be paid in the upcoming general elections
on June 7th, 2015.
I spent my professional life in the Soma coal region from 2000-2002.
While there are forested and agricultural regions to the west, north
and south of the Deni open pit coal fields, the land to their east is
empty with no major settlements, no major forests, and no major
agricultural activity.

We have now received news that the investor is considering

constructing the thermal power plant on the agricultural lands to the
Deni fields north, between the Kayrakalt and TrkPiyale villages.
There is no fresh water in this area (other than that found
underground which is used for agriculture) and there is no empty land
that can be used for an ash dam. The region is far from the Deni
fields

and

their

new

conveyors

and

high-voltage

electricity

transmission lines, it is also far from the highways that are under
construction and that can later be used to transport heavy equipment.
The land is surrounded by forest.
Overall, this new location is not the correct choice. We want investors
to make intelligent decisions, not to make mistakes, not only for
themselves, but the long-term welfare of our society. Investors should
employ the best experts in the field to advise them to make the best
choices. The experts in this case should have spent their pasts
actually working in power plants, not just at their desks within the
walls of ministries.
Thermal power plants should not be constructed on agricultural lands,
on forested lands, on lands with olive trees, or on archaeological
sites. Yet we cannot rely on public authorities to regulate investors
choices. Public servants evaluate these projects based on their
written dossiers. They do not travel to and inspect the sites at hand to
judge whether they will be appropriate or not. Most of the time, as it is
everywhere in the world, there is obviously incorrect, falsified, and

missing information in these investors license applications, as well as

in the EIAs that support said license applications. Local NGOs should
be involved in the approval processes and they should have right to
object to a project if its selected site is not appropriate. After all, they
know the locality better than anyone else and they will defend the
local forests, farmlands, and the farmers.
Furthermore, please let it be noted that the Turkish sugar producer
"Konya eker" placed the highest bid of 685.5 million US dollars
(582.5 million euros) in the tender for the privatization of the existing
990 MWe (6x 165 MWe) Soma-B thermal power plant in the western
province of Manisa, Turkey, according to a statement from Turkeys
Privatization Administration in January, 2015.
Oberstdorf, Germany, 29 May 2015

Crush Course to Reduce Culture Shock

My first business trip to Canada was in early 90's. It was for a new
order in Eregli Iron & Steel plant for BFG firing high steam output
capacity steam boiler contract at home. My Canadian host company
Babcock &Wilcox of Canada, reserved a hotel room in Cambridge
Holiday Inn, and rental car reservation for transportation. They told
me that I would have an easy time. Easy, for a Canadian national,
Maybe !
I would go directly to the rent-a-car company Hertz desk, introduce
myself, show my local driving license, sign documents, get the car,
drive to Cambridge, Ontario, and the Hotel, then I get a good- long
good night's sleep, and feel fresh refreshed for my meetings on the
next day.
What could go wrong? Since I was All fixed, reserved, prepared.
I landed at Toronto International around midnight. I cleared customs,
and then headed for Hertz. Nearly an hour passed for clearing
customs before I could head over to the Hertz Rent-a-Car.
The lady behind the counter approved my passport and local driving
license.
Then she asked what type of car I would prefer.

Here were the reasonable choices and the most expensive one. I
accepted the latter since I was traveling on my company's expense
account.
Everything seemed to me normal, and reasonable. She said, the
brand new Ford
Taurus was full accessory/fully accessorized, insuranced, and had a
full
tank of gas. and gave me the car key and a directional map from
Toronto international to the Holiday Inn in Cambridge. Everything
seemed so easy.
--Good build up. We just know that nothing is going to be easy for a
newcomer.
A company driver took me to my rental car in a big parking lot next to
the airport. The biggest car lot I have ever seen in my life. Bigger than
our soccer stadium at home.
All cars, no human. I was left with a big car, Ford Taurus latest, zero
mileage, full accessory, air-conditioning, and full car radio set.
However I was looking at the car desperately, thinking how to run. At
2 AM the lot was deserted. I was left in front of a brand new Ford
Taurus. I had assumed that the car would have stick shift but when I
climb in behind the steering wheel, I realized that it was an automatic.
It was my first experience with such a car.

How am I going to drive this car, 100 miles or more to my hotel? I

looked for someone to help me. At last, I saw a teenager at the other
end of the car park, washing the returned cars.
I walked over and asked him to teach me how to drive an automatic
car. He first had some difficulty in understanding my foreign accent,
then looked at me and said "Easy", /EASY!" without any humiliation in
his voice. I appreciated him very much for his attitude. His attitude
was helpful and I did not feel humiliated.
In my car, he briefly instructed me on the gas, brakes and the sticks
"drive" position. Then he said "Good luck" and departed.
Feeling the effects of jet lag after a 12-hour flight over the Atlantic, I
test drove the Taurus fives times around the parking lot and still not
totally sure of my ability to drive, I headed for Cambridge, Ontario.
Luckily there wasn't much traffic - but so many traffic lights and
directional signs at the airport junction that I was confused and forgot
what I'd read on the map..
At home it is easy. You just stop at a gas station and ask directions.
Here, I couldn't find one. On the big 4-5-lane highway, I chose a
direction, and luckily I made a correct decision.

On the road, I discovered North American country music. At first I

thought I was listening to the same song being played over and over,
later on I became a fan.
The next culture shock also was due to the discovery of air
conditioning, at home we open a window and all our small roads we
don't need cruise control either. By 5 AM, I arrived in Cambridge and
found the Holiday Inn.
Traffic, wide roads, automatic transmission, powerful radio, music yes
country music, as if it was non-stop same tune at first. The first time
listened to country music and it was as if a non-stop same music.
Then I loved and became fan of it.
What is air-conditioning?? At home you open up the windows that is
it.
Car was almost double of my own car. I felt like a redneck truck
driver.
What is cruise control? All non-sense for me.
We do not have that long highway that time.
You could imagine my dilemma at 0100hrs. but imagine the drama if
it had been six hours later. If it was snowing. Anyhow I succeeded in
my mission, so I could congratulate with myself for showing the same
pioneer spirit as those first intrepid North Americans when they
coaxed their covered wagons westwards. I admire any person from a

different culture who ventures into the mad, mad arena of the other
civilizations. Perhaps, one day, I should sit down and write a travel
book on ways to make life easier for new arrivals to an alien
environment.
Anyhow sometime early AM hours are good for learning how to drive
a automatic car, how to learn Canadian traffic signs, how to find
correct direction, start how to enjoy North American country music.
Today here in my home country, we have similar highways. My latest
car has cruise control, air condition plus CD playing capability. Time
changes fast. Ankara, 10 May, 2015

Direct face-to-face verbal communication is the secret of

success in international relations. (Moscow 1976)

After spending more than 40 years in the business environment, I sincerely believe that Communication is an art. Communication is
everything in business. The ability to communicate distinguishes human beings from all other living creations. It is the key in International Relations, and this is why we created shuttle diplomacy. This is
also why indifference can be an effective weapon in defeating your
opponents, and why precious loneliness is not a solution in diplomacy.
I was in a 3-month technical training program in Moscow in 1976,
during the pure, romantic Brezhnev years. I still believe that Moscow
was the real Moscow at that time, not like now, as it has become a
city similar to those seen in the rest of the world. People were true
believers of their system. I was one of a few westerners in the capital
and was trying to learn Russian. However, most Muscovites were
eager to speak English with me, hence I faced the same dilemma
faced by countless foreigners who try to speak the language of their
host country, wherever it may be. Therefore, I had no chance to
speak Russian.
I was staying at University Hotel (Gastrinistza Universitetskaya) close
to the monumental post-WW2 building that was Moscow University. It
was a - very - cold winter, the city was blanketed in snow. But the

Russians seemed to be comfortable with the snow and the cold. The
city was host to immense stone houses, district heating, an excellent
public transportation system, and reasonable accommodation, food,
and secure jobs for everyone. Its residents had no idea about the
outside world. They had vodka, they had books to read and records
to listen to; they were happy.
By the way, they also had extraordinary art, namely ballet - Russian
ballet. The very next day after my arrival in Moscow I went to the
ticket box of Bolshoi Theatre to check the program and inquire about
ticket availability. There was a long line, I cannot recall now exactly
how long it was, but people waited day and night for these tickets,
whether they were for an opera, ballet, or symphony orchestra
performance. I could not understand how people could wait in that
ticket line for so long in such cold temperatures, especially
considering that sometimes they werent even able to get a ticket
because they were sold out.
My expectations to see a real Russian ballet in at the Bolshoi Theatre
were dashed. It was impossible for me to buy a ticket. I might have
been able to buy a ticket on the black market but I didnt have enough
practice speaking Russian to do this.
I checked to see if our hotel facilities could help in any way and found
out that they had a service bureau to help foreigners. This bureau
was under the direction of (Comrade) Tovarish Nina, and it employed
three ladies in its staff, Victoria, Natalia and Galia. Victoria could

speak English, Natasha Spanish, and Galia German, yet each also
had a fair knowledge of the other two languages that could be used in
case of emergency. I communicated well with Victoria and she
eventually came to help me familiarize myself with Moscow. She was
married with kids and working in the hotel service bureau. I asked her
if the service bureau could help me to buy a ticket to see a ballet,
opera of concert at the Bolshoi. The answer was a resounding
"Nyet!!" It was impossible.
We learnt that the hotel management received a few tickets for every
performance and allocated them to special foreign visitors. The
distribution of these prized tickets was unconditionally left to Lady
Director Tovarish Nina. Yet Tovarish Nina was unapproachable. She
was in charge of everything. She had power over everything including
the distribution of the Bolshoi tickets. After one month in Moscow, I
was completely helpless. I could not get my hands on a ticket to the
Bolshoi despite having tried everything, connections, the embassy,
even the black market. There was no hope. When it comes to ballet,
you cannot bribe a Russian. This artform was more valuable than any
other worldly possession. They could stand for days and days in a
ticket line just to have the chance to purchase one ticket for a
performance, regardless of which performance it was.
I had only communicated with Victoria as she could speak English.
Yet one day I had an idea. I could speak directly with Lady Director
Tovarish Nina in her own language. Since she was employed in the
service bureau, she must be able to speak at least one western

language. Yet which one? I found out that she could speak French.
She had majored in French at Moscow University. I had taken some
French courses at my university but had forgotten almost everything.
I had to brush up on these skills as soon as possible if I were to be
able to communicate directly with Lady Director Tovarish Nina. I then
decided to turn to my foreign colleagues to help me in this endeavor.
We had one engineer from a region in Africa that fell under French
cultural influence, namely the country of Ghana. He had good
command of written French but spoke French in his own local West
African dialect. Anyhow, this was only a minor problem and I needed
to polish my French as soon as possible. So I asked him to teach me
some important French phrases to break the ice with the director. I
practiced those phrases for one week in my free time and one early
morning, when Tovarish Nina arrived in her office, I entered and
greeted her in French, "Bonjour Madame, je m'appelle Haluk
d'Ankara en Turquie. Comment allez-vous?" In the conversation that
came to follow, I addressed her as "Madame Nina". Madame Nina
was very happy that day as during that time, there were no French
speaking guests in the hotel, yet today she was able to speak her
foreign language with a foreign visitor.
She told me about her time at University, her work as a tour guide for
French politicians, her meeting with the famous French pop singer
Gilbert Bcaud, her current job, her family, her husband, and her kids.
She was no longer Tovarish, she was my French Lady Madame Nina
and I was one of her special foreign guests in the hotel. The next day
I asked her about tickets for the Bolshoi, and even though I was

expecting to receive, at most, only one ticket, she gave me one ticket
each remaining week of that month I stayed in Moscow. Carmen,
Prince Igor, LaBoheme, SwanLake, I had access to them all.
Bolshoi Theatre was (and still is) a cultural temple, unmatched
anywhere else. You should take a round trip to Moscow, just to see a
performance at this site, whether it be a ballet, an opera or a concert.
I believe that face-to- face verbal communication is an art in
international relations as well as in international business.
Today, one foreign language is not enough. One should learn two,
three or more languages. Learning one language does not hinder
your ability to speak another. Verbal communication is the key to
success in your business life.
Thank you very much Madame Nina after all these years.
Oberstdorf, Germany, 29 April 2015

How should we choose our new energy minister?

One might think that only an MD (Medical Doctor) should be
appointed as minister of health, that the minister of justice should be
a graduate of law school, that an artist/writer should be the minister of
culture, etc. In fact, others might say that this isnt the case because,
in the end, ministerial tasks are management tasks. Ministers should
pick good managers and surround themselves with talented technical
staffs consisting of knowledgeable individuals in order to make
themselves more effective in exercising executive power. Thus,
technical issues can resolved by qualified, experienced and educated
people that possess the technical competence to come to an
informed political decision.
This way of thinking is not true in the field of energy. We have learnt
from past experiences that the energy minister should be an
engineer. The minister needs to have been present in various power
plants, have worked in their operation, and moreover, he or she must
have worked in the investment phase. Preferably, the minister should
speak foreign languages, English first and foremost but also Russian/
French/Arabic. If the minister holds a post-graduate degree in
International Relations/Law, it is even better. Most importantly, the
minister of energy should have taken courses on thermodynamics
throughout his or her studies.

Our current Energy Minister will not participate in the 7 June 2015
General Elections because of his partys regulation that none of their
members of parliament may serve for more than three consecutive
terms. I personally appreciate the technical competence of our
Energy Minister, who is a graduate of the prestigious Istanbul
Technical University and an experienced electrical engineer by
profession. When I met him at a public meeting, I asked Did you
take a course on thermodynamics during your college education?, to
which he responded, Yes, I took the course from one of the best, so
to say, a legend at the department. I was very pleased.
In the past such a technical prerequisite was not necessary for
ministers of energy.

Technical competence and professional

experience were necessary only for the Undersecretary. Our public

administration was built in this way. Formerly, if a new minister was
appointed, the undersecretary would remain. The undersecretary was
not a party member. Undersecretaries were the memory and brain of
their respective ministries. Ministers came and left, but the
undersecretary was there to stay. Politicians appointed as ministers
were able to express their preferences as to whom they thought
should become the undersecretary of their ministry, but they didnt
have much say in the end.
Nowadays, ministers have the appropriate amount of education and
necessary experience, and when they are appointed, they try to learn
everything related to the work of the ministry. Ministers should make
every decision based on the commercial and political environment,

taking the initiative wherever possible. However, this is not the case
in Turkey, but it seems to be this way everywhere else.

Public-

bureaucrats prefer ministers that do not interfere, but this is not good
for the energy markets.
The post of United States secretary of energy also experienced a
similar development process as our own. At first, politicians with law
degrees were appointed as the US secretary of energy. Now, the
Obama administration appoints scientists from outside of politics to
this position. Former US Energy Secretary Steven Chu has received
the Nobel Prize in Physics and he was a professor at Stanford
University. Current US Secretary of Energy Dr. Ernest Moniz is a
professor of nuclear physics at MITs Energy Institute.
In Germany, the federal minister in charge of Economy and Energy
is Sigmar Gabriel, who is also the chairman of the coalition partner
SPD party. He is an elementary school teacher by profession. This
post is based on political calculations for the coalition in the
Bundestag. On the other hand, Chancellor Angela Merkel has a Ph.D.
in

Quantum

Chemistry

with

her

dissertation

based

on

thermodynamic calculations. Could you imagine a prime minister with

a Ph.D. degree in a scientific subject which mainly depends on
thermodynamic calculations?
It is most likely very, very rare for an engineer to be appointed as
Minister of Health or Minister of Justice. Such an individual cannot
be expected to achieve success in such a post. Could you appoint a

lawyer or a medical doctor as chairman of the Central Bank? No,

because they would not possess the economic educational
background that would enable them to understand the financial
details associated with their field of work. But in the past, anyone
could be appointed energy minister in our country.
Law School graduates have held the position of energy minister in the
past, and nobody asked why. These individuals learned much of the
energy problems facing our country during their tenure, but they
made only limited contribution to the resolution thereof.
Thermodynamics is a mandatory course for undergraduates
studying Mechanical and Metallurgical Engineering, Chemistry, and
Environmental

Sciences

at

our

technical

universities.

Other

engineering students may take it as an elective course.

It is thought to be a very difficult course, however, if the student works
in a systematic way, consistently attending lectures, completing the
daily homework and studying every day, it is not at all difficult. It is for
certain that those who procrastinate, waiting to study until the day
before the exam, will not be successful in such a course.
The highest public office responsible for energy should be occupied
by somebody who has taken thermodynamics courses during their
undergraduate university education. Public office is not a place to
receive an education. If a politician is appointed to head such a
ministry, that politician should have achieved a sufficient level of

university education and have gathered a significant amount of

professional experience, both in advance.
It is not our responsibility to teach each newcomer to the energy
market that a volt is not a watt, that there is no such concept as
teravolt or that a megabyte is not a megawatt. We should not
have to teach them the differences between thermal power plants
and renewable energy resources, nor should we have to inform them
of the details of the Kyoto Protocol. A stadium tribune and steam
turbine are not the same thing.
Newcomers should know the current EIA criteria before coming taking
this public office. Public decisions should not ignore environmental
sensitivities. Wind and solar energy cannot replace base-load
electricity generation in the long-term as they have intermittent
production, and they need new specialized and expensive highvoltage transmission line investments that utilize expensive PumpedStorage Hydro Electricity (PSHE) for load balancing. They should
know that these specialized state-of-the art investments and their
operations are not so cheap.
Nuclear power plants are basically thermal power plants. Our local
market has not managed to build a nuclear power plant or a thermal
power plant for over the last 50 years. Basic design and the
fabrication of major parts for these facilities have always been
curtailed due to the lack of local finance. Here, we are forced to buy
obsolete, old technology to equip inefficient thermal power plants with

low availability as they are financed by Eastern European or East

Asian suppliers and supported by their export-import banks.
Our new minister of energy should know about global warming and
environmental impact assessment norms and should take care to not
build fossil fuel-firing thermal power plants on agricultural land,
forests, land with olive trees, ancient archeological sites, or in the
close proximity of touristic regions.
Our minister of energy should realize that that environmentalist/
popular slogans such as Wind- solar energy is enough for us,
Nuclear energy solves all our energy needs, if we could have started
construction in 1970s then we would be building our own plants by
ourselves by now, There is oil in our land, but foreigners are
preventing us from exploring and utilizing it, Shale gas reserves will
solve our energy needs within the next 5 years, or We found oil off
our shores in the Black Sea, are all urban legends with no applicable
practical or technical basis whatsoever.
We must build fossil fuel firing thermal power plants by ourselves
completely, covering basic-detail designs, fabrication and site
installation domestically. We are suffering from unemployment, yet we
allow semi-qualified foreign workers, convicts and soldiers to
construct power plants within our borders.
EIA reports are to be prepared in detail, submitted properly and
evaluated carefully. In order to have the EIA reports approved and

certified for their new power plants, investors commit and promise
everything to the local people, whether employment, prosperity, low
emissions, or no water, land, or air pollution, but when they receive
approval, they forget their promises. This is not a problem specific to
Turkey, it happens all over the world.
Investment control mechanisms should be continuous, not only
enforced by public servants, but also by local NGOs. From time to
time, we notice political pressure being exerted for positive EIA
results so that investments can be approved and commenced. Yet,
how should we approve the ever increasing amount of requests to
build new imported fossil fuel-firing thermal power plants, when they
are expensive, their prices are floating, the fuel price remains
unreliable, and they increase our current account deficit (CAD), which
is already at intolerable levels. How can we just give investors the
license to proceed?
Energys role in economic policy is a serious and crucial business.
Energy investments, energy studies, petroleum explorations, pipeline
constructions, domestic coal production, scientific and economic
exploitation of domestic fuel sources, finding finance, and finding jobs
are all very serious issues. To ensure our countrys prosperity we
need to have experienced well-educated ministers with tested public
staffs.
Ankara, 21 April 2015

Turkish black-out is not the end of the world

During the winter of 1991 I was working at an American-Turkish joint
venture company in Ankara. We prepared a proposal to build a
thermal power plant for a reputable Istanbulite firm. The company
evaluated all the proposals submitted by interested parties and in the
end it invited us to their head office in Istanbul in order to take part in
negotiations on the final price that would be outlined in the contract. If
a consensus was reached, the contract would be signed. On the day
that we were scheduled to go to Istanbul we were experiencing heavy
snowfall around Ankara. Commercial aircraft could not fly that day
and we had made reservations for an overnight stay at the Hotel Pera
Palas in Istanbul in advance.
When we inquired at the sales office of Ankara Intercity Coaches, we
were informed that buses were still running. We bought tickets and
were scheduled to leave Ankara at 17:00 on a nonstop bus to Istanbul. We set out under heavy snowfall. I had a big briefcase with me
full of thick files and other documents of great importance. I didnt
stow this briefcase in the baggage storage below and it didnt fit in the
overhead compartment. I kept the briefcase just at my feet the entire
journey. I was traveling with our companys General Manager Jeffrey
Green and we chatted the entire way to Istanbul. It was here that Jeff
said: People always make mistakes, they always make wrong decisions. Something may also go wrong that is out of ones control,
and it is futile to place blame. It is not important to express regret.
The important thing is to take corrective action to eradicate the error

that was made as fast as possible. Quick recovery is key in business.

After stopping at Taksim Square at about 23:00, the coach continued
down the road to the old city. We asked to be let off opposite the
Hotel Pera Palas so that we would only have to walk a short distance
to get to the hotel. We got off and the bus drove into the night. After a
short moment I noticed that I forgot the briefcase on the bus. I told
this to Jeff, and without any sign of anger he said, Let's take a taxi
and catch the bus. It was late, midnight, but within a few minutes we
were able to find a taxi. We could estimate the buss route, so went in
the Eminn-Aksaray-Bakirkoy direction, and in about half an hour,
close to Ataky, we caught the bus. Upon retrieving the briefcase, we
returned to the hotel and went to sleep. The next day, after long and
tiring negotiations, we signed the contract. The moral of the story is
that when these misfortunes happen in business life it is important to
amend the wrong by quickly taking the necessary corrective initiative.
It is also important to learn from the mistake so as not to repeat it
again. If you lose something valuable, you have to focus on finding it,
and take away a lesson from the experience so that it is not repeated.
In the worst case, you put everything on hold and renew the system
completely. It is not the end of the world.
On 31 March 2015, we experienced such a misfortune, namely, a
nationwide black-out which lasted almost eight hours. We now more
or less know the reasons for the interruption. We are sure that the
black-out was not the result of a computer virus or a cyber-attack on

the computers of the national electricity transmission center.

We

know that the mismatched frequencies of high voltage electricity

transmission lines could not be compensated for, as we had a break
in the countrys main east-west high voltage transmission line. The
system frequency fell in the western regions of the country and it rose
in its eastern regions. We faced difficulties in loading and unloading
demand.
On Turkeys southern coast, a new and important thermal power plant
with a generation capacity of 1200 MW was unable to resolve the
ongoing feed pump failure that had become apparent the previous
night. The same failure happened the following morning at 10:36, and
the power plant was shut down entirely. With this, the national power
system lost a great source of generation capacity and its frequency
fell below the tolerable level. As a result, in the west, two more large
base-load thermal power plants with capacities of 1034 MWe and 799
MWe were forced out of the system due to this fall in the nationwide
frequency.
Turkeys

national

electricity

transmission

company

(TEA)

dispatchers were unable to interfere as the available software at the

main control center was ineffective in engaging in corrective
intervention on existing transmission lines. The national grid fell piece
by piece like dominoes, one after another in only a few seconds, until
the system experienced a complete power outage that plunged the
entire country into darkness. In order to protect itself, the European
common energy pool (ENTSO-E) removed us from the system. After

an 8-hour interruption, the black start was realized. Yet before this,
fast trains, underground metro lines, traffic lights, airport control
towers, hospital emergency rooms, and elevators could not be
operated if they had no emergency power supply.
This chaos lasted 8 hours. What would have happened if we had had
nuclear power plants running during that period, producing more than
5,000 MWe each? What would have happened after our transmission
lines transmitted no more power? How would we have protected our
high capacity power plants? We understand that there are
weaknesses in our current energy transmission lines, as well as in
our national control center. And we need to take corrective action.
Privately-owned thermal power plants with high capacity base-loads
have the tendency to respond slowly when it comes to loading and
unloading electricity generation. Due to their expectations for high
profits, they are reluctant to obey directions.
Turkeys public electricity transmission company needs greater staff
training, and funding to update their software in order to control the
overall system. When a situation occurs such as the recent power
outage, certain members of the staff must be granted protections so
that they are able to take urgent action. There is no need to place
blame. Yet, now we see that instead of supporting the corrective staff,
most of our energy is focused on individuals that have now become
scapegoats. We do not find this correct.

It is not right to ask that the general manager of Turkeys national

power grid resign, nor is it correct to dismiss the staff. An eight-hour
power outage is not the end of the world. Nonetheless, we must learn
from this unfortunate occurrence to prevent it from happening again.
Ankara, 15 April 2015

"Fury" (Rage) film,

and impact on Main Battle Tank fabrication
"Fury" movie, has already became a new cult masterpiece. It contains
scenes difficult to watch. It is not for everyone, since the brutality of
war is very difficult to watch. Battle tank manufacturing is within
mechanical engineering discipline. Automotive is the highest point of
mechanical engineering as the excellence of science of art. You must
keep the driver and the crew safe at all times. Tank should be the
leading deterrent of attack power. You should be able to drive on offroad terrain at least 50-60 km an hour. You should be able to identify
the enemy quickly, aim/ shoot/ hit the enemy while your tank is in
motion. You should produce that capacity all within 5-6 million US
dollar budget per tank in today's prices. These are not easy tasks, but
we have to fulfill that capacity in order to survive in our geography.
The major character in US production "Fury" (rage) movie film was
the Sherman tank, which was nick-named by the soldiers in time of
war as "death trap", when hit, burning quickly, and killing the crews
inside by fire. In order to kill a

German Tiger tank, at least 4-5

Sherman were spared. Burn to death was the fate of tank crew in
WW2. It was sad story of American soldiers entering into the tank by
accepting the death by burning from the start.
In fact, the choice of Sherman tanks by American generals at the start
of WW2 was a wrong decision. Anyhow wrong or correct, the decision

was taken, and Sherman tanks were

manufactured in 5-different

plants in war almost 50,000 units. It had initially 400 hp petrol firing
rear engine, easy to get burned when hit. Due to these
dissatisfaction, production is stopped right after the war, the rest were
sent to other countries.
We must learn the story of the legendary T-34 tanks of our northern
neighbors. Wheel suspensions, and walking pallets were copied from
American "Walter Christie" design. Sample Caterpillar tractors were
secretly exported to Russia in the 1930s. Tank transmissions were
copied from American tractor undercarriage. Tank engine was at the
rear, it was water cooled, diesel fuel firing, BMW of German design.
T-34 tank had easy maintenance easy repair, with no major operation
problems. They had easy maneuver capability in field rides. Cold start
of the engine was excellent but transmission was disaster. Their
inclined armor were covered with special alloy for protection. Bullets
were bouncing on inclined armor and bullets did not work. Two spare
fuel tanks externally mounted on tank body rear, needed to pass long
distances. During fighting with enemy, fuel tanks were immediately
dismantled from the tank body.
Design and early production of T-34 tanks were kept top secret. First
bunch of 1000 units were ready for fight against the invading German
forces for the first time in Kurtz tank war. Germans were expecting
their enemy to have inferior poor design tanks, but just the opposite
have happened. German tanks faced with new design, powerful, fast,

durable, technological monsters on the war theater.

Germans

suffered in a great surprise.

Germans thought that their enemy had poor, inferior, undeveloped
technology which could be beaten easily. It was happened just the
opposite in war theater. Germans were defeated heavily in the clash
with new design T-34 tanks. T-34 tanks were invulnerable, so strong
so powerful. Later in time, Germans improved their tank design to
catch up but their production capability and replacement were not in
line with growing war destruction. T-34 fabrication plants were too far
away from eastern front, so that German war planes could not reach
to bomb.

T-34 tanks were manufactured in 5- different fabrication

plants each too distant from each other, so that fabrication was
continued uninterrupted. During WW2, 84,000 units were produced
and design improvements continued for better armor, bigger and
powerful guns, more fire power. There were no radio communication
in the early versions, so that tank crew communicated with flags
between each other, in later models, radio was installed for fast
communication.
T-34 off-road speed could reach to 50-60 km per hour in open war
theater, whereas German tanks could go maximum 30-40 km per hr.
It was a great fighting advantage for T-34 in war clashes. Hitler once
said, "If I had known about the T-34 tank's strength in year 1941, I
would not have attacked.". That is called deterrence today, T-34 tanks
became war hero of the Eastern Front in WW2, which played a major
role in winning the victory.

"Michael Koshkin" was the young design engineer of the first

prototype T-34 battle tank. In order to prove applicability of the new
tank design to decision maker war generals, he drove the first
prototype T-34 battle tank from the plant to Moscow army command
center in harsh cold winter conditions passing 2000 km off-road
fields. He caught pneumonia and soon after the his lone test drive, he
died. After receiving the permission, all over the country 5- different
plants started to fabricate non-stop during war time 24 hours 7days,
with 50% women, 25% young boy labor force, since all men were
drafted.
During Stalingrad war, plants had even no time to paint the tanks, so
that some of the T-34 tanks were sent without external final paint to
battle front, to fight the invading enemy forces, that was an incredible
history.
***
In 1942, in North Africa on Libyan desert, tank battles were very
important in WW'2 the history. American Sherman tanks have
encountered first time with German Panzer tank divisions on hot
Libyan desert. American Generals has selected Sherman tanks
although Shermans were weak, smaller and with short-range gun
capability, but fast.

General Patton has once said, "The important thing in tank battle is
whether Shermans could move rapidly to the back of the German
Panzer and hit them back," That was the practice of ancient times, he
learnt from "Roma- Carthage" wars. The way to defeat the war
elephants of Carthaginians, the foot soldiers would give away to
heavy war elephants to the front, then they move to the back of the
beast, and they have to spit the elephant with spears behind at the
weakest point. These tactics have worked in ancient times. Sherman
tanks have also tried to apply the same tactics, but they did not work.
In order to hit a German tank, it would be causing the destruction of
4-5 Sherman tanks in fire.
Anyhow low altitude flying aircraft and anti-tank artillery have helped
Shermans to overwhelm German Panters. German tanks were
stopped by lack of fuel, since the German fuel ship had been sunk in
the Mediterranean by the British war ships. Also trucks to transport
drinking water were bombed by war aircraft. German tanks left with
no fuel, unable to move and lost the desert war. German General
Rommel saved himself, by flying back to Germany. But his soldiers
were surrendered. Total 340 thousand German POW soldiers were
sent by ships to America during WW'2. They picked cotton in
Southern cotton fields throughout the entire war. Meanwhile Alabama
blacks were enlisted in American army, and they were sent to Europe
to save white people.
First encounter of new untested T-34 battle tanks with their German
counterparts on the Eastern Front is the best war story. Young

Russian tank designer Michael Koshkin drove the first T-34 prototype
to prove tank durability all alone 2000 kms from fabrication plant to
Moscow and died from pneumonia he got during test drive. It is the
saddest human cost of this main battle tank design story. Our
Northern neighbor then have produced a total of 84,000 units T-34
battle tanks in WW2 as a series of 5-separate factories. Designers
continuously improved design during the war, armor thickened, raised
the gun fire power. T-34 tanks of 50,000 have been destroyed in the
war, but the rest have the key fighting power to win the war on the
Eastern Front.
***
Sherman tanks were generally weaker than German Tiger and
Leopard battle tanks. Their guns were smaller, gun range were
shorter, they had thinner armor plates. But these battle tanks could
be manufactured in large numbers during WW'2 to beat the capability
weakness with high numbers. While Tiger or Leopard tank fires on
one of them, other Sherman tanks would circle and hunt the German
tank. The same tactic was applied to T-34 versus German tanks.
Comrades in the 5-different fabrication plants have produced large
number of T-34 battle tanks non-stop, and also improved tank design,
tested gun power on captured German tanks on field.
New anti-tank weapons were designed to put fire on battle tanks and
kill the tank personnel inside. Armor -piercing explosive projectile
bullets with explosive nozzle cone toward the tank interior have

worked better in time, keeping battle tanks idle, inactive in the war.
They created high flame beam to explode the armor shields. At that
point, by melting armor and there were a few thousand degrees
Celsius flame exploded into the tank, the crew was burned to death. If
ammo was also ignited in the tank, they all suddenly exploded
completely. The anti-tank weapons are among those with armorpiercing bullets, as sharp as pencils with tungsten drill bits. Bullets hit
the armor, armor is pierced by tungsten pen, enters tank interior,
helps blasting ammunition. Today tank designers decorate the tank
exterior with high explosive resistant panels. Armor-piercing bullets
stand out, giving explosion outside with early response, armorpiercing bullets trigger with early discharge. Providing armor work
outside to keep bullet away from entering interior, and therefore are
cutting blast effect.
Today, battle tank impact in fighting is limited, due to increasing
impact of anti-tank planes A-10, helicopters and land mines. You will
recall the pictures of obsolete destructed scrap on the roadside old
design armored vehicles and tanks in Iraq war. Saddam's tanks were
demolished by helicopters easily. The effects of T-34 battle tanks
were ended during Korean war by anti-tank weapons which were
effectively and widely used by food soldiers. So new designs were
introduced with better armors. War is cruel, inhuman, but one should
be strong enough to be deterrent in our environment to survive.
***

From open sources we understand that the local MBT (main battle
tank) design and tests are not yet completed for full scale production.
Driving tests are satisfactory. Tanks nee electronic radar shelter
against air attacks, electronic camera surveillance systems, land
mines detection equipment are to be mounted on tank body and
tested. Real war tests are not completed in war conditions. We would
expect to test at least one prototype in a war zone, such as in
Afghanistan. Coalition forces do not participate into war in
Afghanistan just to bring peace to that land. We all know that armies
go there to test their new fighting equipment, whether they are battle
tanks, or heavy rifles, or helicopters.
British, German, American tanks are being tested there. Test sites of
Russian tanks are currently in Chechnya, Ukraine and Syria. Let us
know well about the power of Syrian tanks and talk about them. Syria
has a total of 4850 units of T-55-62-72 Russian tanks which are
obsolete in todays terms. But the latest model T-90 could be given to
Syria when suppliers feel necessary, then our new generation battle
tanks have to cope with the latest T-90, as well as Abrams of Iraq in
future disagreements.
There are only 4- each MBT prototypes in development. 4-batch
series fabrication each with 250 units will be initiated from 2016 on.
Unit budget price per standard MBT is estimated to be USD 5-6
million. Battle capacity with total 1000-tanks in the region will be a
serious show of deterrent force. We need to investigate the
neighboring dangers in times of disagreements. Syria has T-55-62-72
obsolete Russian tanks but they could have T-90 tanks in future.

Israel army has their own design war tested Merkava M4 battle tanks
with front mounted powerful engine. Merkava tanks are the only battle
tanks with front engine, all other tanks have rear engines. Iran has
some American M60 Pattons, and their own design new battle tanks.
American Abrams battle tanks are left in Iraq, however some of them
in north military bases were captured by new islamic insurgents.
Battle tanks should have electronic remote self destroying capability,
which could be activated in case of captures. We understand that
those Abrams tanks had that immobilizing capability to make
themselves unusable.
New generation main battle tanks should have radar shields against
hostile air and land attacks, and should have missile capability
against helicopters. Tank also should fix its gun electronically to the
enemy target and it should stay steady, shoot and hit while moving at
high speed.

In the latest models, tank crews are reduced to three

personnel since most of ammo loading are organized earlier. Cyber

security is also very important since battle tanks are now full of
computers almost for each and every task to carry out.
***
Towards the end of the WW'2, "Giant Tiger" was designed and
fabricated by the direct order of Fhrer. They were very large tanks.
They were sent to France front. 70-ton giant battle tanks could not
succeed in real war conditions.

Because the roads were narrow, they were unable to maneuver

within the settlements , could not make turns or returns. They were
too heavy. They could not pass the bridges, you had to make a
special bridge. So there is a limit to the size of the tank. At the
beginning of the WW'2, German battle tanks were a military success
in the Russian steppes. German tanks could hit enemy within 1 km
range with high accuracy. The initial hitting range of early T-34 tanks
were 500 meters. Therefore they should get close to the German
tanks. However, the number superiority, better survival capability
difficult winter conditions, easy operation, higher field speed, easy
refuel to the remote war theaters, better repair

and maintenance

capability, all had increased T-34 survival rate at war.

***
Our land forces used various updates of American M60 and German
Leopard tanks in the past. There is no T-34 tank in our list. Starting
from year 2016 on, we shall produce 4 batches each with 250 tank
units. Although the prototype is designed and produced by one
company, we understand that there are three different private
companies in the competition to get the order. In fact it is better to
distribute the fabrication order to multiple suppliers in Istanbul, Izmir,
Ankara, even we should look for more fabrication centers in
organized industrial zones of cities like Sivas, Eskiehir, Malatya,
Antep.
Prinkipo, 25 December, 2014

Turkeys 2015 National Coal Policy

In this article, we will strive to evaluate the new lignite, hard coal
and/or imported-coal firing thermal power plants in our local market,
explain operational problems, and recommend that new coal firing
technologies be implemented for the best use and most efficient
application of local coal in the new thermal power plant investments
from 2015 onward.
Foreword
Whereas coal constitutes a 25% share of the global energy supply
market, second only to petroleum, it is first in the global electricity
generation market, with a share of 40%. Locally, coal ranks first with
a 40% share in the primary energy generation market, but fourth in
the electricity generation market, with a 16% share. It is foreseen that
coal will come to increase its share in global markets in the future
thanks to new Clean Coal Technologies. As a matter of fact, coal is
the most important indigenous fossil fuel in Turkey, therefore, with the
best applicable use of advanced technologies, it should be utilized
countrywide for greater electricity generation at a cheaper rate.

Reserves and Mining

Turkey has both hard coal and lignite deposits. The hard coal
reserves are mostly located in the western part of the country, in the

Zonguldak Basin, which has more than 1.6 billion metric tons of
workable reserves, 512 million tons of which are proven and about
80% of which can be coked.
Lignite deposits are widespread and plentiful throughout the country:
reserves are estimated at more than 14 billion metric tons, 7 th largest
in the world, most of which are economically mineable, though only
about 7% thereof have a heat content of more than 3,000 kilocalories
per kilogram (LHV). In 2012, around 68 million of metric tons of lignite
were produced annually. About 40% of the Turkeys lignite is found in
the Elbistan Basin.
Production and Consumption
The Turkish Hard Coal Institute operates five underground mines in
Turkey, and is the only hard coal production entity in the country. The
two most important lignite fields in Turkey -the Afin-Elbistan and
Sivas-Kangal coal fields- are owned by EA and operated by
private companies under contract.
Even though there is significant production of lignite and some
production of hard coal in Turkey, not enough coal is mined to meet
domestic demand.
As a result, Turkey imports more than 25 million tons (2013) of hard
coal each year, mostly from Russia (33%), Columbia (24%), the USA
(14%), South Africa (11%), and Australia (5%) as of 2012. Imported
hard coal is used mainly for electric power steelmaking, and cement

production. About 75% of the Turkeys lignite is used as a fuel source

for electricity generation.
Coal Technology and Coal Markets
Seeing that there is relatively little investment in coal fired power
plants in the global liberalized markets, or at least investment priority
is given to natural gas fired combined cycle power plants due to their
relatively cheap installation-costs and faster construction periods,
foreign dependency increases in countries which depend on imported
fuel. Demand for more natural gas has also triggered the demand for
more coal.
This greater utilization of coal has also necessitated the application of
new coal technologies.We are now witnessing an obvious evolution in
clean coal technologies. When we look at the available technology
and new trends in market demand, the most important sector in the
field of energy revolves around the development of new technologies.
It has now become a new tendency for such leading technologies to
be developed and applied not only in the advanced countries, but
also in the developing countries, which are consuming more and
more energy.
The energy technologies of West European as well as North
American companies are becoming too expensive to export; soon
these countries will not be able to sell their products on the global
market. Even in their home markets, protective measures such as

high import taxes and strict labor codes will need to be implemented
in order to avoid an influx of cheap labor from abroad. In recent
years, China, India, South Korea, and many other Asian countries
have increasingly come to compete in the global energy markets.
The companies in these countries already assert dominance in their
home markets with their self-made fabrications supported by
advanced technology and fabrication licenses. Although their
products are cheap, they have serious difficulties in fabricating the
latest

and

the

most

efficient

designs

in

compliance

with

environmental standards that are largely adopted across the globe.

However, we can predict that these companies will soon reach these
targets complete with the price advantage that they already possess
in the first place.
We need to reposition our local energy market in Turkey keeping
these new developments in mind. We have the engineering and
intellectual capacities as well as the market potential for local
fabrication. We must design, fabricate, construct, install, and operate
our own thermal power plants that fire our own indigenous fuel.
In the past, we have prioritized attracting foreign investors that had
the financial capability to cover power plant investment projects
although their products were not the best of their kind, not the most
efficient, and not designed to incorporate the latest technologies that
would utilize our local coal. These plants have not been suitable
when it comes to using our local fuel, whether lignite or hard coal,

and hence they have aged quickly, very quickly, faster than the
acceptable market norms.
Reputable western energy companies do not exist anymore, as they
are either in bankruptcy, or unable to compete with the market
players beyond their national borders. In recent years, Asian
companies have presented increasingly cheap offers in thermal
power plant tenders. If such an eastern company is prequalified in the
pre tender procedure, western companies certainly hesitate to
participate in the process as, in the end, it would be a waste of time
and resources to go head on against such competitive players.
In this way, it is increasingly difficult to attract western technologies
although they may certainly be desired. Price is of little importance to
the new players; they are often unaware of the prevailing market
figures, and hence, quote extravagantly low prices. Their labor costs
for design and fabrication is extremely low. They have seriously
effective market policies that allow them to infiltrate the global energy
market.
It is often forgotten, or ignored, that the best design which allows for
the use of local fuel is accomplished by tapping into ones own local
engineering capital, namely, local engineering and construction
companies. Foreign contractors design the facility, commence
construction, engage in site installation, and then wait for the
guarantee period of 2-3 years to come to an end. Having fulfilled their
obligations they then leave the site. The local operator remains

behind, running the plant alone for the long term. It is very difficult to
pursue long term rehabilitation and programmed repair works without
the design/fabrication support of the original equipment supplier.
Therefore, local design and fabrication are indispensable when it
comes to long term operations.
Upcoming Energy Crisis
We all know that we are in the midst of an energy crisis; we lack a
sufficient energy supply. Our resources are unable to generate the
necessary amounts of energy. In other words, such a huge energy
demand is not able to be met by our limited energy supply.
Here, the growing demand for renewable technologies, such as
wind/solar, cannot be fulfilled quickly. These technologies will only
enter the local energy market with time. Fast/easy/cheap solutions
are not available, nor are they practical or feasible.
We must design our own thermal power plants, through the efforts of
our own design teams,to operate using our fuels that are available
locally, whether they be lignite or hard coal. We must fabricate the
necessary equipment by ourselves in our own fabrication shops. We
must take on site installation, and ultimately, operate the facilities by
ourselves. Our local engineers are capable of handling the
formulation and implementation of such plant designs.

However, we need to create a positive investment climate in the local

market in order for this to be achieved. Local market forces should
facilitate that these activities can be handled independently, in
harmony with local investors, financial institutions, academicians,
engineers, engineering unions, and contracting service providers. We
need to take the initiative, not leave it to foreigners. We should not
employ foreign contractors just because their labor is cheap. Our
energy markets and our energy potential should be protected against
foreign domination and incursion.
How to cover Project Financing
Financially, we have serious reason to support such an end-goal. We
have genuine expectations that Turkey will have an electricity market
based on real costs. Seeing that crude oil prices are immediately
reflected in local petroleum byproducts, and that the consumers
accept this burden in their cost calculations, the same will similarly be
applied in all phases of the price structure of electricity generation.
When we evaluate the projections for the supply and demand of
electricity for the next 10-15 years in Turkey, there are no new
potential primary energy resources that could reduce the ever
increasing prices. Hence, the short term electricity prices are
expected to hover in the range of US$ 0.16 - US$ 0.20 per kWh in
our local electricity market.

Considering their rehabilitation and renewal costs, the newly

privatized thermal power plants will not help to reduce overall
electricity prices in the short and medium terms.
Currently, more than 50% of the electricity generated in the local
market is dependent on imported natural gas. Due to delays in hydro
and coal-based power plant investments, those imported-natural gas
firing thermal power plants are operating at base load. Unfortunately,
this will increase the demand for more combined cycle power plant
investments.
Prevailing Coal Prices on the Global Market
Thanks to the latest developments in technology, coal fired thermal
power plants based on PC (Pulverized Coal) and CFB (Circulating
Fluidized Bed) designs have reached 46%efficiency, and beyond,
with the application of supercritical pressures and temperatures.
Imported coal at the prevailing market price of US$ 57-71 per ton, or
spot price of US$ 4-5 per MMBtu, are now comparable with the prices
of natural gas, at US$ 11-14 per MMBtu,that is used in combined
cycle power plants generating electricity with 60% efficiencies.
However, imported coal is indexed to oil prices and there is no reason
to expect any drastic change in these price ranges in the medium and
long terms. Therefore, we should not expect any decrease in coal
prices any time soon.

In any case, one should keep in mind that the raw coal price of our
local Afin-Elbistan coal is less than US$ 1.80 per MMBtu as of 2014.
Nonetheless, firing this coal in our thermal power plants located there
is not so easy; this is supplemented by the fact that these plants are
not so efficient. Specially tailored academic and commercial methods
need to be explored and enforced to amend these deficiencies.
New Technologies for Firing Difficult Coal
IGCC (Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle), CFB, Oxy-fuel firing,
and underground gasification methods could be applied to our local
coals with low calorific values. CFB, for example, has proven to allow
an output of 165 MWe per unit.
Today, energy security is a major parameter that qualifies a country
as independent. Energy security can only be achieved by a prudent
combination and management of local natural and socio-economic
resources in parallel with the implementation of the latest technology.
It is difficult to think that a country can protect its borders if its energy
investment policy is fully import-oriented. Turkey has many energy
resources but they are not easy to exploit. For example, hydro power
in Turkey, while exhibiting great potential, requires careful and
intelligent policies that take into account the impact of such projects
on the environment and on local rural and urban areas.

On the other hand, our local coal mines have varying specifications,
even when they are located in the same basin. Therefore, for better
and more efficient firing of the available coal in these thermal power
plants, we need to apply more expensive and selective mining
techniques rather than our traditional, cheap mining methods. This is
an expensive investment that is only observable in a few private
operations in Turkey.
The traditional mining method involves the extraction of coal
complete with a host of undesirable and unburnable materials such
as sand, ash, moisture, etc. All new imported-coal fired power plant
investors are major players in other sectors which are in need of
cheap electricity. Therefore, they consume almost 60-70% of
electricity generated within their own plants. The remainder is then
sold on the national market; and this is not a problem seeing that
there is always a need for more energy in our ever shrinking energy
environment. Generally, local investments are realized by methods of
corporate finance. Between 1993 and 2005, power plant projects
exhibiting an overall installed capacity of more than 4000 MW have
been realized. These natural gas firing, cogeneration plants pay for
themselves quickly, thus freeing up more money for the use in further
investments in new plants.
Conclusions and Recommendations
The

energy

policies

of

todays

administration

prioritize

the

securement of the best quality, most reliable electricity for the local

market at the cheapest rate. Considering this, the effective and

rational use of local fuel resources is of vital importance as domestic
energy planning is synonymous with planning for the future of the
country, allowing us to avoid any foreseen economic crises.
We do not have the luxury to make mistakes in our energy policies,
as any misstep will have severe repercussions down the road. While
securing a steady supply of energy is the first priority, it is our sincere
and humble opinion that new investments based on imported-coal are
too risky. The construction of such facilities on the coasts of the Black
Sea adds to this risk due to the increased coal prices on the world
market and the limited routes through which coal can travel in the
ever-congested Turkish Channels. Furthermore, Russian coal is not
cheap and never has been.
We must be very careful in issuing Environmental Impact Report
certifications as well as regulatory licenses. Plants should never be
placed on forested lands. Any new and significant increases in a
plants capacity and any fuel changes from local coal to imported coal
should be carefully evaluated. Seaports where the unloading of cargo
occurs should be carefully selected. The deep sea discharge of
thermal plant bottom ash should also be avoided.
A Final Word
The best price is not the best choice for the long term, consistent, and
cheap generation of electricity. Ankara, 31 March, 2015

How should Investment Incentives be given, if at all?

A local saying in our geography reads, All investment incentives are
abused with intensive care. Let me try to explain this expression.
We encourage exports, then exporters create fake documents to take
advantage of the incentives and get tax refunds. We make
procedures easier in order to encourage the construction of thermal
power plants, then vulgar investors initiate seizure of forested land
and the local agricultural population rises up. We ease Environmental
Impact Assessment (EIA) procedures to incentivize combined cycle
power plant investments, then vulgar investors use the local peoples
drinking water in their cooling systems and the water becomes
heavily polluted, unsuitable for further agricultural use.
The new Environmental Impact Assessment Regulation entered into
force with its publication on 25 November 2014 in the Official Gazette
numbered 29186. Thermal power plants generating up to 300 MWt
(about 100 MWe) are now exempt from the application of EIAs as the
300 MWt capacity is quite high. Agricultural lands, forests, wetlands,
olive groves, are protected and named as "Sensitive Areas" in the
Regulation. The Ministry will give the final decision of the EIA
Regulation. So the final decision will be in the hands of political will.
Thermal power plants must comply with environmental standards and
an exemption therefrom should never be brought into question. While
investment incentives are penned by well-intentioned western minds,

in practice, oriental swindlers seek loop-holes, an in effect, menace

responsible implementation of the works. Investment incentives are
not received by those who really deserve them, but by those who are
close to the so-called political will.
EIA exemption in its current form is an unfortunate practice. It means
investors will be exempt from complying with local and international
environmental norms. This definitely needs to be revoked.
While we all know that investment is not an easy process, investors
nonetheless need to prepare EIAs and convince the local people of
the utility of their projects. If there is no local acceptance, then such
investment is not appropriate for the local people and therefore the
investment should cease. It is not correct to fell 6,000 olive trees
overnight, to clear the land to make it ready for the construction of a
thermal power plant. This is unacceptable. The investor who cuts
down 6,000 mature olive trees in one night is not acting in a fair
manner.
The olive tree is mentioned in all three holy books. Anyone who
advocates the importance of constructing thermal power plants,
anyone who promotes the importance of pursuing local indigenous
basic design, anyone who puts money into the investment, and
anyone who has built the power plant is in a difficult situation in the
case of a public vote. There is no party to defend this horrible atrocity
against the environment.

This irresponsible act has harmed our hard-earned reputation as well

as our business profile. There is no justification for this act. Using
basic logic, there is no reasonable economic comparison between
these 500-year old olive trees and the power plant with a maximum
20 to 30-year lifespan.
If a wrongful practice takes place, it should be immediately reported
and corrective measures should be enforced immediately. If the wind
farms on open farmlands make life unbearable with their noise, and if
locals in residential areas are complaining of the noise levels,
investors are to be told to install quieter wind turbines without
demolishing the forests in the process.
If there is a risk of agricultural land seizure with solar projects that
would subsequently leave local farmers without land, this project
should be avoided.
If the guaranteed purchase price per kW-hr is less than expected,
investors should be warned, so that the over-stimulated demand can
be redirected. Market conditions should govern free competition. The
consumer should not be forced to buy overly expensive electricity.
If you want to build a thermal power plant with a 1,000 MW output
capacity that fires imported coal, you will need at least 2,000-3,000
acres of vacant land. If you submit a false application for 300-400
acres in the EIA process, you should be warned that your actions are
wrongful, as you actually need at least 2,000 acres and know that the
requested 400 acres of land will not be sufficient.

Neither additional public nor private land will be expropriated, this

includes forests and agricultural land, and you cannot ask to clear
land with olive trees.
Combined cycle power plant investments should not be able to use
underground water for their water cooling systems if that water is
already allocated for nearby farmlands. Otherwise, investments risk
massive increases due to local environmental concerns; Initial Public
Offering (IPO) stakeholders will end up with the loss of billions of
dollars, based on shortsighted attempts to save a miniscule amount
of capital by jeopardizing environmental norms and regulations.
If the ash dam or ash storage facility for a coal firing power plant is
not properly constructed, if you pollute the nearby sea via deep water
discharge, you should be warned, and the work should be corrected.
I have the money, why cant I construct the power plant where I
want?, say some new investors who are unaware of sensitive
environmental issues. Energy is not a priority, but the environment is.
Having money does not authorize you to build where you want; there
are rules, regulations, laws, and local and international environmental
standards to which everyone must comply.
The deadline for the installation of new environmental equipment in
public thermal power plants was legally extended and will now be
enforced in 2018. Privatized power plants benefit from this same
extension.

Compliance with environmental norms must be enforced by all

means. We give investors extended exemption from environmental
investment. This is neither fair nor correct.
Investors ask for the extension of exemptions for at least 3-5 years to
allow for rehabilitation expenses. They further initiate reduction of
personnel expenses. Consequently, our people become unemployed
and we are faced with unnecessary social discord, public tension,
and turmoil.
With this pace enforced, we shall face more and more deforestation,
a reduction of viable farmland, and the demolition of lands housing
olive trees. We now promote renewable energy, with more wind
turbines and more solar panels to be installed on vacant land. We
also guarantee higher electricity purchasing rates in order to let these
projects receive better financing. These incentives will primarily serve
to boost the importation of equipment. Our market will be saturated
with cheap, poor quality, redundant energy equipment imports with no
maintenance contracts.
Nonetheless, there are incentives to promote the domestic
manufacture of such equipment. Yet we fear that such measures will
be plagued with bureaucratic procedures, which will make regulations
not applicable or worsen facilitation. Who can build a reputable
turbine/generator plant in five years, construct the factory, take a
considerable market share, gain the trust of new businesses, receive

orders to survive, finalize manufacturing, arrange the site, construct

the plants, put them online, and then further promote domestic
production? This is a dream which cannot be fulfilled. However, we
may be able to establish assembly plants for foreign firms, and initiate
partial production.
It is not easy to foresee the construction of locally designed power
plants that fire local coal within the next few years. The measures
which have been implemented do not clearly encourage domestic
manufacturing. While there is a summary of a draft roadmap on
remedying this situation that has already been released to the public,
the full details of such a plan have not yet been disclosed.
On the other hand, our local civil contractor companies are providing
heavy labor abroad for the construction of power plants in rich
neighboring investor countries that have limited labor forces. These
companies have a record level of orders. However, they earn money
by providing basic human workmanship; they do not supply basic
design and their involvement in engineering is limited. Other major
foreign contractor companies supply the basic design, deliver the
necessary engineering expertise, and receive the largest share of the
profit.
If an investment does not create local employment, it has no
importance. Investment incentives should promote local engineering,
local fabrication, and local employment for site installation, operation,
and maintenance.

Public authorities fear that if there is no proper investment incentive,

then there will be no investment. This assumption is not correct. If the
proper market forces are emancipated by the rule of law, free market
conditions, and fair competition then there will always be investment
that contributes to the prosperity of all. On the other hand, if there are
investment incentives then there is also the possibility of corruption
that favors the privileged..
Transparency

Internationals

latest

2014

annual

Corruption

Perceptions Index saw T

urkey drop 14 places to 64th out of 175
countries. If we are already ranked so poorly in the corruption
perceptions index, it is better to avoid further worsening the situation
by introducing un-manageable investment incentives. Investment
incentives are an unnecessary cost and an unnecessary burden on
our economy.
It is much better not to have incentives, and to let market forces
dominate the local environment under the close scrutiny and
surveillance of public authorities as well as non-governmental
institutions.
In our geography, we believe that the more investment incentive
measures we enforce, the more corruption we create. Therefore, it is
better to stop investment incentives completely.

We would strongly recommend and prefer that no incentive for

energy investments should be provided other than current standard
general tax cuts and flat electricity feed-in tariffs.
Prinkipo, 15 March, 2015

Is Turkey Entering an Energy Bottleneck?

In the coming days, we will be seeing new developments in our
energy markets and should therefore make upfront predictions to
develop appropriate strategies. We have very serious problems in our
natural gas supply. Even if we do not have any political friction with
Ukraine or Russia, in the days when temperatures drop below -5 C
our natural gas demand will not be met. There are optimistic
expectations that this shortage may be made up by gas being
supplied from Azerbaijans Shah Deniz-2, Israeli offshore fields, or
Northern Iraq, however these prospects have not yet been secured
with contracts. In these difficult times, in an overly complicated
geography, these optimistic expectations represent nothing more than
wishful thinking, as we cannot plan for the future based on such
loose conditions.
Our installed electricity generation capacity has reached 68,000
MWe, but the peak (maximum) output does not exceed 40,000 MWe.
While we have had a limited number of new thermal power plant
ventures in recent years, more will be needed to fulfill our rising
energy demand and this will take some time.
Currently, we have a host of power plant ventures which initiated their
investments in the year 2007 or earlier. While opportune investments
in wind and geothermal power plants have increased, recently, no
new ventures to construct thermal power plants have been seen. The
most recent thermal power plant projects, under construction in

Tufanbeyli, Gynk, Adularia, and Iskenderun, are expected to be

commissioned in 2015 at the latest. Besides these, there are no other
new thermal power plant projects in the works.
Our hydro-electric power plants have all but stopped operating. In
general, most dam reservoirs are only half-full because of the lack of
rainfall that we have received in recent years. During and after the
winter season, we may see an increase in precipitation that could
replenish the reservoirs of our hydro-electric dams, but it is unsure if
these accumulations will be enough to produce substantial amounts
of electricity.
There are new natural gas-firing combined cycle thermal power plant
ventures, but there is not enough natural gas to fuel them nor any
contracts that ensure the inflow of gas. Moreover, we do not yet have
the free market conditions or the legal assurances that could
safeguard the system.
One can enact as many rules and regulations as they like, but in the
long term this will not secure a necessary supply of gas. Gas prices
should not be subsidized by public funds. The cost of natural gas
increased between 2005 and 2007, whereas electricity prices stayed
constant between 2002 and 2007 by way of subsidization. This has
posed difficulty for private players in the energy market.
Shell Corporation has initiated 2 separate drillings in our country to
explore for shale-gas, at a cost of 40 million US dollars each. The

third well is awaiting the approval to commence drilling. Optimistic

estimates predict that there are about 1.8 trillion cubic meters worth
of shale gas reserves in South East Anatolia, so, considering that our
current annual gas demand is around 45 billion cubic meters, such a
discovery would meet our needs for at least the next 40 years.
However, for this to become a reality we would need to make
substantial investments in drilling. This brings up the question of who
would pay for such an expenditure.
Over the last 10 years, public companies were unable to make any
investments in the energy sector. Public institutions have promoted
and encouraged only local and foreign investors to fund projects.
Public institutions have tried to avoid any legal responsibility, and
have not agreed to guarantee any purchases when it comes to
energy sales. They have opted to avoid the assumption of any legal,
contractual, and financial responsibility. While it is necessary for the
country to invest more in energy generation, there is simply no easy
money to do so. In this case, both local and foreign investors have
serious concerns as to the reliability of the investment environment.
Old local coal-fired thermal power plants were sold due to
privatization,

however,

their

availabilities

are

low,

they

are

operationally inefficient, and they possess equipment that is not

contributory to environmental protection including low quality
electrostatic precipitators. Furthermore, most of them have no flue
gas desulphurization units. Such plants require costly rehabilitation,
or even complete replacement. Yet, they are legally exempt from

rehabilitation and can continue operating until 2018 without any

upgrades. Here, while this exemption was actually overturned by
judicial decree, the new ruling is not enforced. This has led to a
situation in which the plants will continue to operate as they have
before until a new legal measure is implemented. In this way, the old,
existing coal-fired thermal power plants continue to pollute the
environment

without

the

use

of

newer,

better,

and

bigger

environmental equipment. To top it off, there is also the possibility that

this exemption status could be extended for an additional 3 year
years.
The construction of new thermal power plants continues, namely, the
Diler 600-1200 MW, Cen-AL 1200 MW, Biga 1200 MW, rnak 405
MW, Soma 450 MW, Krkkale 800 MW, Bandrma 920 MW and some
other small 400 MW plants.
Most hydroelectric power plants, such as the controversial Ilisu 1,200
MW Dam and the Kalehan 300 MW Dam, plus some other 3-5 GW
projects, should come on line within the next few years. New ventures
in wind energy that will produce a total of 500 MW per year for the
next 4 years may also begin operations soon.
Most of these new power plant ventures were actually initiated long
ago and they are just now beginning to come closer to commencing
operations. Now, the construction and equipment procurement of
these projects are in their advanced stages within the financial
markets, despite the setbacks which may have been experienced.

Within the next 4 to 5 years, new solar plants with capacities of 1-3
GW can also begin to contribute to meeting the predicted peak
electricity demands during the summer months.
With a combined average capacity of 10-13 GW, new solar power
plants may be introduced within the next 3 to 4 years. After this we
should also consider nuclear power plants. Investment financing in
this sector is dependent on the social and political climate. According
to the newly released Medium Term Economic Program, Turkey's
growth rate is expected to fall to 4.5% per year, and an annual
increase in energy demand will be readjusted accordingly.
When it comes to the natural gas supply, if we have no failings in
domestic transmission, if the Ukraine-Russia crisis does not escalate,
and if there are no technical capacity issues at the Russian points of
entry, then we may consider new contracts to purchase extra gas
from Russia. European gas consumption is predicted to decline by at
least 10%, and as a result, natural gas prices will inevitably decline to
levels that are most likely less than 240 US dollars per thousand
cubic meters, whereas the current price is hovering around 400 US
dollars per thousand cubic meters.
This situation means that for Russia any additional gas sale in the
future will be a very valuable gain.
In the Elbistan coal fields, each plant has four units that are capable
of producing 350 MWe each. The Afin-A plant is running only one

unit at a 240 MWe capacity. Afin-B plant has only two units running
at full capacity. Here, the other units are down. They need
rehabilitation, maintenance, or even complete replacement.
For the rehabilitation of these units, a new tender for engineering
consultation has been released which will take some time to
complete. The llolar coal field is closed due to a past land slide
which occurred in the mine. The Hurman Creek, which passes
through coal field, will be equipped with a new artificial river bed.
Operations to dewater the coal field are currently underway.
New ventures that seek to exploit the Elbistan C-D-E coal fields are
underway. Site visits, feasibility studies, and the drawing up of
preliminary contracts have been carried out by Chinese, South
Korean, Japanese, and Qatari investment groups. An investment
budget of around 12 billion US dollars is being discussed. The public
side should also participate in these stages of the project to help
shoulder the risks to these groups investments.
The new Afin power plants in the Elbistan coal fields will face 4
major risks that the public sector should take major initiative to
address. These are: the artificialization of the river bed, replacement
and removal of existing power lines away from the coal field, land
expropriation

and

resettlement

of

the

local

population,

and

construction of new dams to meet the plants water needs. These

efforts are to be within the scope of public enterprises as private
entities are incapable of addressing issues of this scale.

Alternately, the price of imported coal on the international market has

dropped to FOB 60-70 US Dollars per metric ton, which corresponds
to approximately 2.40-2.50 US dollars per MMBTU. In the past, this
price hovered in the range of 80-90 US Dollars per metric ton, and
even climbed to 160 US dollars at one point. This development
shows that investment in the sector comes with its own inherent risks.
Nonetheless, the local price of coal is stable in the long run, at around
2.00-2.50 US dollars per metric ton at mine mouth delivery. The
fluctuations in these prices are limited at best.
We may also want to consider the production of synthetic gas from
low quality underground coal mines. While its calorific value is 1/4 or
1/5 that of natural gas, at around 1500-2500 kcal HHV per thousand
cubic meter, syn gas is more environmentally friendly compared to
coal. In this regard, a couple of pilot field test plants are being
constructed at Soma-A and Tuncbilek.
All in all, with these developments in mind, we have serious problems
facing our local energy markets as it is proving more and more
difficult to meet the ever-increasing energy demand that is so vital for
our economic and social development.
Prinkipo, 22 October, 2014

Self-fulfilling Prophecy or Rational Expectations for

better Democracy Prospects, A Personal Opinion

The June 2013 public uprisings starting in Gezi Park Istanbul and
spreading to other cities in Turkey were unforeseeable. Why? Because social explosions, big social uprisings, and revolutions are exceptional events in a nations history and thus cannot be predicted.
Sociological studies cannot foresee that in case of such-and-such
event we can expect such an outcome. Social events cannot be observed rationally in the form of hard sciences. Social explosions are
special events. It is not possible to predict them in advance.
The dynamics of social explosions are such that the participants
themselves cannot even predict what will happen next. In December
of 2012 the economy seemed strong, domestic politics solid. Economic indicators were good, the domestic market was happy;
everything was fine. The same, however, cannot be said of now.
At the time, the prevailing political power was saying, the separation
of powers is preventing us from taking care of business. It is not fair
for a political party in power for more than 10 years to still play on a
victimization discourse and then start to implement similar repressive
public policies against the opposition.
Hunger strikes took place in the autumn of 2012 and in January of
2013, and they are described as in the "peace" or "solution" to the

process of negotiations. Earlier the ruling political power was addressed to the ultra-nationalist votes, and then turned to Turkish
Southeast votes to get any answer back.
Compared to the old, rotten inactive opposition parties, the new Kurdish Party, with a male and female co-chair in practice for each party
post, is a very good, effective example of new democratic practices.
Under the repression of 1980s, a local feminist movement flourished
in this country. Repression creates opportunities for new, alternative
movements. The Gezi Park uprising was created by young people
born after the 1980s. They participated in a large-scale sociological
movement, probably for the first time in their lives. Most of them were
students. They were apolitical and in closed and indifferent communities until the Gezi movement.
The movement has nothing to do with the classical left/right conception of politics. We dont feel that there will be any new political party
as a consequence of these activities. The young people who were
participating in the Gezi movement have attitudes different from all
past conceptions. There is equality between men and women. There
is high degree of environmental awareness. There is solidarity, created by a high degree of fast social media use via email, YouTube,
Facebook, and Twitter. They have a sense of individual freedom.
Some of the female participants had headscarves but the issue was
not an important for them. They were not interested in what you wear;
you could dress as you wish.

No longer is there a separation of powers in this land. However, separation of powers is deemed fundamentally necessary for real Western democracy. All power is at the mercy of the ruling party. Perhaps
this is good, perhaps not. Before, executive power was under the
control of the judiciary and sometimes, undemocratically, soldiers.
During the reconciliation process for accession to the European Union all these independent bureaucratic audit mechanisms were abolished, modified or brought under the strict rule of executive power.
There is an inevitable struggle within the ruling party over the distribution of wealth, which, with time, has apparently led to fissures. The
opposition will certainly interfere and maximize its gains from that dissension. The governing power is vulnerable to all these developments and should consider restructuring over time.
The new opposition was first initiated by locals facing the risk of losing their farmlands and water resources in rural regions. Villagers
started campaigning against hydroelectric dam construction, locals at
touristic seaside areas protested against new, imported coal-firing
thermal power plant construction.
The increasing number of shopping malls has also engendered reactions. Similarly, loose, rubber-stamp EIA (Environmental Impact Assessment) approvals for energy investment programs, followed by expropriations of farmland, touristic seaside resorts, the environmentally-not-so-friendly Channel Istanbul, the third Istanbul Bosporus
bridge, and the third Istanbul Airport investments have elicited local
reactions. Womens rights, the anti-abortion law, and prohibitions on

liquor with religious motifs on top of more interventions into private life
have created explosions.
The traditional peace at home, peace in the world foreign policy replaced with neo-Ottoman expectations, the unnecessary interventions
into the internal conflicts of foreign neighbors, the unnecessary tensions with neighboring countries, all of it came to a head with the construction plans for the shopping mall with old artillery barracks in
Gezi park in Istanbul.
We dont feel that this incident will create a new political entity but it
will surely contribute to parliamentary politics. The political consequences have already affected markets.
Despite the Central Banks repeated interventions into the money
markets by selling hard currencies in order to keep the local money
stable, apparently there is a continuous exit of foreign investors from
our stock market. Financial credibility is not stable enough to cover
expensive new investment projects to the point where most of them
may stay idle in future. A long-term stability of the local markets is
sourced with a new political structure.
Presidents regime is questioned under the influence of these new
social developments. Such social uprising is too costly for the new
changes in the long term, and they are totally unsuitable for markets
and investment financing.
Nowadays, a lot of social media networks are working under their

own regulating and monitoring mechanisms. The disproportionate

use of brute force is still present, much like oriental, repressive regimes. TV channels and the written press are kept under pressure;
journalists are in prison in disproportionate numbers.
Disproportionate intelligence or humor, in short has emerged as
the largest opposition. Humor is kept under pressure with disproportionate lawsuits in courts, in forms unseen in Western democracies.
However, the banners during and after college graduation ceremonies infused the events with colorfulness and humorous language.
They were very effective.
We do not need to look elsewhere to evaluate the events in our backyard. The Gezi Park uprising was a singularly unique creation; it is a
new social movement. Global capitalism is now being questioned
here. This social inquiry is pioneer in our history, replacing the old
democratic habits, to create new better applications and implementations in future.
Its not right to abandon the traditionally peaceful relations with the
neighboring countries and get involved in the internal conflicts and
civil war south of the border. This is not a part of our traditional foreign policy. Interference into the civil wars of foreign nations is not in
our interest. Neo-Ottoman policies are not correct. We cannot grab a
slice of the cake or get our share in looting during clashes. There is
no such thing. We all lose in war; there is surely no winner.

A neo-Ottoman foreign policy may be costly for us in the end. Displeased allies may respond with increased fuel prices in tough winter
conditions, we may even face gas flow interruptions. The economic
well being of our nation can only be secured through peace and good
relations with neighboring counties.
There is no way to defeat a public uprising by using overwhelming
force like an oriental, absolutist regime. Embracing Western-type
democratic rule is always the best way to win over every segment of
society. In democracies, political power naturally renews itself by restructuring and creating alternatives within itself in accordance with
the expectations of market forces. Long-term restructuring seems like
the inevitable way to go.
In democratic systems, it is important to have freedom of speech,
independent courts, a free press, separated powers, and pluralistic constitutions to protect minorities.
More moderate, more harmonious, more caring governance will
surely appear soon through better communication with young people
in the country. The new governance will be in line with the power centers of the European Community and the United States.
It will exist in accordance with policies on democracy and freedom of
expression in the press. It will be tolerant toward and similarly unharmed by critics and humor, and hence it will support freedom of expression and respect for the rights of people.

We are very sure that a new political structure will inevitably be created in the near future. This is a self-fulfilling prophecy or rational
expectations -- or the rational choice of local markets for the wellbeing of all in a Western-type democracy.
Wikipedia: A self-fulfilling prophecy is a prediction that directly or indirectly causes itself to become true, by the very terms of the prophecy itself, due to positive feedback between belief and behavior.

The New Political and Economic Era in Turkey

International investors of the business world love to read strategic
forecast reports. These reports give a preliminary road map to help
them know how to navigate in the future. They also originate from
local environments and are therefore valued by the investors as they
unmask local sensitivities. I hope that the report you are now reading
will warrant your attention and appreciation. Please feel free to
comment after reading.
In the free and democratic elections for the office of the President of
the Republic of Turkey, the former prime minister was elected by
51.8% of the electorate. He was sworn in and quickly moved on to
fulfill his responsibilities as the new president.
The new Prime Minister was chosen by the majority party, although
we all know that this was not through democratic free elections but by
direct appointment as per the "Dilbert Principle" of the famous US
cartoonist.
The new Turkish Prime Minister has been referred to as "Hodja"
(teacher) seeing that he is a former university academician. It is
known that he was not elected, but appointed by the President
because he fulfilled the certain preconditions for this post. A new
prime minister should be a member of parliament, member of the
majority partys executive committee, and should not serve in excess
of a maximum of 3-terms as stipulated by party regulations.

Now a new era is dawning. How do we expect our new President to

rule our country? In his new presidential term, is he going to rule with
the powers of an "absolute leader/monarch" as is the case in the US
and in France? We are skeptical that such an option will become a
reality as the Turkish Constitution has not been changed by the
Turkish Parliament to open the door to such extended powers.
We can say that it will be difficult to change the legislation in this
regard. Up to a point, the new President can enforce some new
measures under the existing applicable laws, but for the application of
total and absolute power, the legal conditions remain largely absent.
According to the Turkish Constitution, it is currently the Prime Minister
who possesses the absolute executive authority to govern the
country, whether by designating the budget, making political
decisions, allocating public spending, or deciding where to invest. We
are about to observe a slow but definite power struggle, albeit rarely
publicized. So what does this "new era" entail in the future?
We, the people of the business community, want our elected
government to be successful in its endeavors. Each democratically
elected government is our government, and we fully support its
decisions. And we expect our government to make the right
decisions, creating peace at home and with our neighbors, securing
our national unity and our borders, keeping inflation and interest rates
low, increasing investment, boosting national economic growth,

cutting

down

the

"current

account

deficit"

(CAD),

reducing

unemployment, and increasing everyones share of national wealth

and access to education and health care services.
A successful democratic government facilitates the success of our
own businesses. We are in the business world, and we flourish only if
our government flourishes, therefore, we wholeheartedly hope for the
success of our government.
"Hodja" has valuable academic credentials. He was the foreign policy
adviser to the Prime Minister, was later appointed as the Minister of
Foreign Affairs, and recently became a member of parliament.
Earlier he wrote numerous academic and popular newspaper articles.
He speaks German, English, and Arabic. He holds a bachelor's
degree from the prestigious Bosphorus University in Istanbul with a
double major in economics and political science. He also completed
his Ph.D. degree at the same university. He is happily married with
four well-educated children, two of which are already married. His
wife is a very successful obstetrician MD working in a private clinic in
Istanbul.
"Hodja" published a book entitled "Strategic Depth (2001)", which
was a compilation of his past popular articles in academic and
popular journals, putting forth a Pan-Islamist, Neo-Ottoman approach
to international affairs in the modern world.

To this day, the book has had 104 new editions, all in the Turkish
language, but has not yet been updated or supplemented with and
major changes in its intellectual content or prevailing arguments.
During his tenure as Turkeys Foreign Minister, "Hodja" engaged in
dialogue with his counterparts from other countries with ease, and
influenced them with his broad academic background and vast
intellectual knowledge. He advocated the policy of "zero problems
with neighbors", and even though it ultimately backfired due to
unforeseen, unfortunate developments in the Middle East, all the
blame should not be placed on him and him alone.
He is an academician by trade, not a career diplomat. He has limited
background on putting his academic work to practice in the Foreign
Ministry and has acquired only on-the-job diplomatic training.
Although he spent some time at a Malaysian university, he has
almost

no

experience

working

alone

in

completely

foreign

environments, and his ability to empathize with foreign missions is yet

to be truly tested.
His background was gained in the lecture halls, where he has spent
long hours with his undergraduate and graduate students. Yet
everyone has the same question in mind, "if he were not appointed,
could he have been democratically elected at the ballot box?!" The
answer will be made clear in the nationwide general elections to be
held in June of 2015.

When Hodja takes the podium, he can academically postulate for

hours on end. For a new listener, his vast intellectual capability is
impressive as his speeches are similar to the lectures one could hear
in a university course at the department of international relations. Yet,
the audience can quickly bore of such stultifying orations. For every
occasion he has well-prepared academic documents, whose lengthy,
rehearsed contents he reproduces and duplicates in different
meetings and settings, regardless of who the audience may be. One
has to be reminded that Hodja can probably recite lecture material for
every single class of a 4-year bachelors program in International
Relations from memory.
Will Hodja limit himself only to foreign policy issues during his office
as PM? That is impossible. Will he make radical changes to his PanIslamist, Neo-Ottoman ideas over time? We shall see. Will he
implement successful and effective domestic and economic policies?
How is he going to manage the economy? After a very charismatic
and dominant personality that saw unprecedented success on the
local level and held the prime ministerial office before him, is he going
to be effective? Will the former PM (now the President) interfere in his
day-to-day decisions and rule as he pleases?
We feel that it will take some time for Hodja to learn to govern, and
that in time he will be very effective. Hodja will change. He has to
change, otherwise he will fail and loose the next general elections.
This is his "Dilemma", his inescapable "Paradox". We shall all
visualize the change he calls "Restoration" in his party meetings, in

his public speeches, in his new revisions to his famous book

"Strategic Depth".
Departing from the prime minister, positive monetary indices related
to the international financial markets, foreign direct investment, and
the local stock market have shown that the ministers in charge of
Turkeys treasury and finance ministry are indispensable. As far as it
concerns these individuals, the majority party's self-imposed threeterm limitation may not apply. While they may not be elected in the
upcoming elections as deputies, they may continue their ministerial
duties until the top political decision-makers find similarly reputable
replacements. This is also the case for the Central Bank Governor,
who is very likely to continue his charge for some time to come.
Those deputies (members of parliament) who will complete their
maximum three-terms in parliament, will not be appointed to the party
ticket in the next general elections based on party procedure. This
means that they will have time to recharge, time to rest, time to
reflect.
They may return to their commercial family enterprises to work, to
earn money. They may join universities if they have academic titles.
They may share their political experience with other political
institutions. They may take on national and international functions.
Although not typical in the Turkish context, they may even write books
on their past experience in the parliament.

The new Prime Minister, "Hodja", will quickly learn the ins-and-outs of
domestic politics, how to manage the local economy, and how to
speak intelligibly to the public. He will feel the heavy burden of the
current account deficit (CAD) which is now at $60 billion. He will look
for solutions on how to cope with our dependence on fuel imports and
how to halt and reverse our ever-increasing foreign debt which has
already reached $400 billion.
He will try to find a solution to the Syrian refugee dilemma, as their
numbers approach 2 million. He will observe the geographies of Syria
and Iraq from a different angle in order to seek new, better and more
applicable solutions. We will see his Pan-Islamic, and Neo-Ottoman
ideas pass through "Restoration". A new "Strategic Depth" will be
considered. Meanwhile, Hodja's hair will grow gray with the weight of
his great responsibility.
The fragility of the domestic economy will increasingly be felt. The
appreciation of the US Dollar and the debate between floating and
fixed currencies will be a constant issue. The real-estate market
bubble will need to be addressed. Market behavior and investment
dynamics will be carefully monitored. Hodjas political effectiveness
will ultimately increase in time. We shall witness his ever-increasing
political efficacy in party meetings, in his public speeches, in his
encounters with foreign prime ministers, and in the upcoming 2015
general elections. Prinkipo, 30 September, 2014

The best Venues for Energy Conferences in Turkey

Every year international companies/ organizations either organize or
just participate to energy conferences in Turkey on various instances.
It is for sure that these conferences help us to communicate with our
business colleagues, to learn more about ongoing business activities,
to update latest information, to increase our network capabilities, to
meet with our potential clients or partners to make further business.
It is a real business potential and there are many private local and
international companies who are organizing energy conferences in
Turkey. However they organize these events mostly in Istanbul. Our
feeling is that these conferences in Istanbul have no use for real
business. Istanbul is an international city that is for sure.
But for energy business, Istanbul has no meaning for the business
opportunities, nor has any result for future. Istanbul is a good place to
see historical sites. It is good for business meetings. It is good for you
to take your wife- spouse there on company expense account.
However you will return to your home office with no results. Energy
business capital city in Turkey is Ankara, also the capital of Turkey.
All decision makers in public enterprises are situated in Ankara. The
Ministry of Energy, State Water Works (DS), Public Electricity
Companies (EA, TEDA, TEA, TETA), Coal board (TK),
Energy Markets Regulatory Agency (EPDK), they all have their head
office in Ankara. Istanbul is another country for them. Please do note
that all key decisions in the energy markets are taken in Ankara.

All key local and international companies have offices in Ankara.

They should be available to meet with the key public decision makers
at all times when needed. Living in Istanbul or elsewhere and coming
to Ankara for one-day business flight will have no meaning.
When you participate into an Energy Conference in Istanbul in one of
the fancy hotels in the city center, or in conference/ fair centers on the
outskirts of the metropolis, you will have no or very limited
communication with your counterparts in the public sector.
For sure that the key people will come to that event, provided that all
expenses paid by the organizers in legal format, you will have the
opportunity to listen to their same speeches which were already
presented maybe a hundred times earlier. They will be giving the
same speech and after they will immediately disappear in order to
meet some other business or private colleagues.
The most important energy organizations take place in Ankara.
Ankara is the center of all core energy investment decisions.
The most important speeches are always given by the Minister
himself.
You should follow him in all his presentations.
He will be giving the latest information on ongoing energy business.
All other public figures will be repeating his speech.

Participation to an Energy event in Istanbul is waste of time and

money. Do avoid any event on energy business in Istanbul. It is no
use for you and for your business expectations.
Please do remember to join to any event which will take place in
Ankara, especially which will take place in the main auditorium of the
Energy Ministry.
That is the most important place for all energy meetings. The key
energy figures will be available for you there at all times, by all
means.
They will have ample time to share with you. It is also very cost
effective.
Also please do remember that you should be available in Ankara one
day earlier. We observe people coming from other cities by the early
flight on the same day of conference, arriving to the conference
venue at about noon time, and then they try to leave as early as
possible to reach their evening flight as soon as possible.
We those living in Ankara, watch them with pity.
Here is our recommended list of the best ten venue to organize
Energy conferences . They are all in Ankara, capital city of Turkey.
Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources Auditorium Ankara
National Library Auditorium in Ankara
Gazi University Engineering Auditorium Ankara
TOBB University Auditorium Ankara

MTA Auditorium Ankara

Conference Center (KKM) in METU University Campus in Ankara
METU Alumni Conference Hall in Visnelik Ankara
Bilkent Hotel in Bilkent University Ankara
J.C. Marriott Hotel in Ankara
Crowne Plaza in Ankara
The last three are commercial hotels with conference capacities. We
would wish to put other well-known reputable 5-star luxury hotels into
our main Top10 list, but unfortunately, the most of these luxury hotels
which are situated at Ankara city center are difficult to reach. Key
figures, and their staff normally try to avoid participating to these
events since city traffic makes everything so miserable. Car parking
is so difficult if not impossible most of the cases. Anyhow it is good to
know that we have also other alternatives available in Ankara.
Above given list is tentative and it could be revised with your
assistance in time. However any new entry of my preference will
certainly be in Ankara.
There are "think tanks" in Ankara which can help and/or cooperate to
organize such energy conferences. USAK is one of them, which can
help and recommend local reputable bilingual speakers.
Web site is "usak.org.tr".
Ankara, 05 June, 2014

"Energy" Chapter of the 62nd Turkish Government's

New Program
The 62nd Turkish government has recently announced its new
program. The "Energy" chapter is described on pages 148-152 of the
document in Turkish. Let us read and evaluate what is targeted in the
"Energy" chapter of this new program.
***
Energy is one of the most strategic areas of the modern world. In
recent years, past governments have dedicated ample resources to
create a greater capacity of electricity generation, diversify energy
resources, emphasize renewable energy, and to privatize energy
generation and distribution facilities.
In this context, we had approximately 31,000 MWe of installed power
in 2002, whereas we now have 67,431 MWe as of July 2014.
Similarly, while we produced 129 billion kWh of electricity in 2002, as
of 2013 this same figure has been raised to 242 billion kWh.
We resolved to increase the electricity generated from renewable
energy sources, and put an energy efficiency strategy into practice.
We shall survey and attempt to exploit the indigenous and renewable
energy resources to their highest potential in the coming period.

In particular, the hydroelectric power plant projects which were

commissioned in 2003 have increased their annual electricity
generation rates from 26 billion kWh to 79 billion kWh today. In the
last three years we have commissioned hydroelectric power plants
that will produce a total of 6,450 MW.
Indigenous lignite coal resources are extremely important for our
thermal power plants. We have huge lignite coal reserves in the
Afin-Elbistan, Konya Karapnar, Afyon Dinar, and Eskiehir Alpu coal
fields that are ready for investment initiatives to spark greater
electricity generation.
In addition to the coal production from these mines that will feed into
the development of thermal power plant projects, investment
incentive schemes have also been implemented in order to prompt
more positive growth to this end in the medium-term.
We will also accelerate our work on the establishment of nuclear
power plants.
The privatization of public electricity distribution companies has now
been completed, and in the future we shall continue to privatize local
electricity generation facilities.
By 2023, it is our goal to substantially increase the economic and
social development of our society. To this end we aim to meet our

domestic energy demand, providing uninterrupted, safe, low-cost

energy to the end consumer by diversifying our energy resources and
technologies and increasing the security of our energy supply.
In order to produce greater amounts of energy, we shall develop our
civilian nuclear capabilities and expand thermal and renewable
energy projects by utilizing local resources to their highest potential
while minimizing the adverse effects on the environment. At the same
time we will continue to make use of our strategic position that is
strengthened by competition in the international energy system.
In order to increase supply security of primary energy resources, we
shall place greater emphasis on balanced resource diversification.
In Mersin Akkuyu and in Sinop, we shall commission 8 different
nuclear power units capable of producing a combined total output of
9,280 MW.
Thermal power plants which will be powered by local coal are nearing
completion and will contribute a total of 18,500 MW to the Turkish
energy sector.
Almost all of our hydroelectric projects will become operational,
providing 20,000 MW of additional power. The major hydroelectric
projects in Ilsu, Boyabat, and Alpaslan-2 will soon be complete.

In addition, our wind energy turbines will produce 20,000 MW,

planned geothermal power plants will exhibit a minimum capacity of
600 MW, and solar energy will generate 3,000 MW. Therefore, in the
end, the share of our energy that will be generated by renewable
resources in the year 2023 will constitute 30% of the countrys overall
energy production.
We are entering a new era of solar energy. The world's largest solar
power plant will start operating in the province of Konya in the future.
This new solar power plant investment with a capacity of 3,000 MW
will generate about 6 billion kWh annually. We will make the province
of Konya the solar energy hub of our nation.
Prior to 2003, only nine provinces had access to natural gas
distribution facilities, now in 2013, however, 72 of our countrys
provinces benefit from this access. We shall invest further to
incorporate the remaining nine provinces which require special care
to overcome technical difficulties and high construction costs so that
all our provinces will have access to natural gas.
We give great importance to the security of our natural gas supply. In
this respect, we are committed to diversifying our supply sources and
increasing the number of underground gas storage facilities. Turkeys
first operational underground natural gas storage facilities can be
found in the North Marmara and Deirmenky regions. The first
phase of the Lake Tuz (Salt) underground storage facility, that will

boast a storage capacity of 500 million m3, is expected to be

completed by 2016.
In 2002, annual investments for oil exploration and production
amounted to approximately $100 million. That figure was brought up
to $910 million by 2012.
Construction of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan crude oil pipeline is now
finished and we have commenced work on the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum
(Shah Deniz) natural gas pipeline project. Our share in the
Azerbaijani Shah Deniz Stage 2 project has jumped to around 20
percent, making Turkey the projects second largest shareholder.
An intergovernmental agreement that will facilitate the transportation
of Azeri gas through Turkey to Europe via the Trans-Anatolian Natural
Gas Pipeline (TANAP) has now been signed.
The first phase of the Turkish-Greek natural gas pipeline, dubbed the
South European Gas Ring Project, has been completed and the
pipeline has begun to export gas to neighboring countries.
On one hand, we aim to convert the Ceyhan sea port to the second
largest energy terminal in Europe. On the other hand, we are trying to
ensure the security of our supply while taking the necessary
measures to become an energy transit country.

Turkey is the largest energy market of the Middle East, the

Caucasus/Central Asia, and South Eastern Europe/Balkans regions.
Turkey shall continue to pursue international projects that link these
regions with itself, acting as the local center in the energy trade
nexus. In this way it seeks to become a regional energy trade
powerhouse and will continue to strategically aim to strengthen its
position in this regard.
Our government, our industries, and our energy sector give priority to
the development of our mining capabilities. In 2012, our country's
mineral production generated $11.7 billion. The target for 2023 is $20
billion.
In 2002, we received $600 million from our mineral exports, whereas
by the end of 2013, this number increased to $5 billion.
In 2002, 100 thousand meters of exploratory drilling was undertaken
by those in the public and private sectors. As of 2013, this level
jumped to 1 million 500 thousand meters. In 2023, the amount of
drilling for mineral exploration purposes is targeted to reach 5 million
meters.
Encompassing $900 million in 2013, investment in domestic oil and
gas exploration has increased about 9-fold compared to 2002.
Additionally, in 2002, the total combined depth of oil and gas bores
was only 52 thousand meters in length, while now the total combined
depth is about 305 thousand meters in 2013.

In the coming period, we shall continue to explore our mining, oil,

gas, and geothermal potentials. In addition, we shall put special
emphasis on our marine research facilities with our own research
vessel.
Turkey's "black diamond" (local coal) will play an increasingly
important role in our energy portfolio. When we (the AKP) took office,
8 billion metric tons of coal were being extracted annually. By drilling,
we have now supplemented this amount with an additional 6.8 billion
metric tons of coal. Over the past 11 years, we have discovered 11
new coal fields.
***
It can easily be understood that the "Energy" targets of the new, 62nd
governments program were taken from the text of the previous
government program. This is because these goals represent a
continuation of the former. However, we believe that the new program
should be expanded on to promote more local engineering, local
design,

local

manufacturing,

and

an

increase

in

domestic

employment.
This new government will have a 10-month time period to work
toward these goals until the next general elections in June 2015.

There are so many lofty targets mentioned in the new program that
cannot be achieved within this short 10-month timeframe.
At any rate, the new government should place their own goals and
priorities on the agenda to supplement those that were established
earlier regardless if the new program is presumed to be a
continuation of the former governments approach, a reality that was
indicated with the governments declaration that it would pursue the
same energy policies.
Seeing that past figures and aims of the earlier government are
repeated in the new government program, we feel that there is no
need for the current government to speak for far-off future targets as
this program should be meant for a transition period.
Moreover, we notice no mention of the new combined cycle power
plant projects or new power plants that will operate on imported
combustible fuels. Is this an indication of political reluctance to
promote these investments?
Likely, due to the adverse effects of natural gas and imported fuel
prices in the international spot markets on the ever-growing "current
account deficit", there is no mention of price fluctuations.
The Government Program has received the vote of confidence in the
Turkish Parliament on the 5th of September, 2014.

We wish great success to our new, 62nd Government in attaining

their "Energy" targets as well as in completing all other measures that
have been mentioned in the document.
Ankara, 15 September, 2014

Energy

Market

Analysis

for

the

2016

American

Presidential Elections
The next Presidential elections in the United States will be in year
2016. In the last two-term Obama administration, American
Democrats appear to be worn-out. Obama's cautious, rational foreign
policy and his economic and geopolitical expectations were not
enough. Democrats were unable to perform most of their social
promises, i.e. ObamaCare.
Oil in the Middle East and Europe gas supply pipeline in Ukraine
could not be controlled. The necessary precautions could not be
taken upfront. They could not control events. Early preventive
interventions could not be enforced in times of crisis. The
interventions which are being considered in Northern Iraq and
Eastern Syria against terrorist establishments were too late, hence
the enemy is unclear to specify. Fighting on land in this region is too
risky, it is much better to avoid interference which seems auspicious
in times of conflict in the Middle East in order not to get harmed.
Democratic presidential candidate Mrs. Hillary Clinton (66) will have
hard times to persuade the majority of the eligible US voters. When
she was the Secretary of State, Mrs. Hillary Clinton has lost credibility
in her late responses during crisis especially in Benghazi,Libya and
her mismanagement in the incident what happened to the late
American Ambassador. Those unpleasant incidents, her delays in

action, her security weaknesses and her mismanagement to give

proper attention to the crisis have cost her loss of the great prestige.
She graduated from Yale law School and worked as attorney in her
own office. During her post- ministerial period, Mrs. Hillary Clinton
released her new book on her experiences in her tenure in the State
Department. The name of her book is "Hard Choices". In her book,
she writes in careful language to describe the merits of our new
Prime Minister "The Hodja".
Mrs. Hillary Clinton appreciates his academic knowledge, his
intellectual capability. However she also says that his academic
capability is not updated with the current world events, with his new
political experiences.
Similarly new US Secretary of State, John Kerry has discomfort in
their mutual press conferences. When his counterpart starts long
sentences which are prepared during his past academic studies from
his memory, whether it is related or unrelated with the current
situation, the face expressions of Mr. Kerry become changed. He
stops listening and interrupts the conversation. He is bored with the
same pre-prepared conference wording. John Kerry has majored in
political science at Yale University in 1960s. He was a Vietnam war
veteran, decorated with war medals. In his later years he joined antiwar movement and he had wide experience in world politics. He
fluently speaks French and some other foreign languages which is
not so usual for an US Secretary of State since most top level
American politicians do not speak foreign languages.

There is a common feeling that an American who speaks a foreign

language is probably an immigrant.
John Kerry was the Democratic presidential candidate in the past and
he lost the general elections to George W. Bush. So he can not be renominated in the next elections. Similarly former Republican
candidates John McCain and Mitt Romney have little chance to get
re-nominated, since they both lost the past elections.
Yesterday was left in yesterday. Ottoman period in the Middle East is
in the long past with nice pleasant memories for modern Turks.
Ottomans were wiped out of the history in 1918. Since 1918, the
world has faced with WW1, WW2, Korean war, Vietnam war, Afghan
war, Iraq war. All these wars reshaped the world, as well as
strategies,

and policies. In the Islamic world, especially the Arab

world has their own expectations, their own visions, their own
policies, and none wants to have a big brother to tell what to do on
this behalf.
Every individual country has his own national policy to fulfill their own
ambitions. Particularly in complex Arab world, we must understand
that new Ottomans, namely new Turks can not lead this region, as in
the past centuries. World history did not end with the exhaustion of
the Ottomans in 1918. Those long distances which were passed by
walking or on horseback, are now completed in very short period of
time on choppers in today's modern armies. Weapons are changed.
Their destruction capabilities have reached to immense levels.

From the other end of the world, unmanned aerial vehicles are flown
over enemy lines without taking risk of any human casualty. Battles
are moved to other mediums, such as virtual space. Internet,
Youtube, Twitter, WhatsApp, Facebook, Linkedin are used for
intelligence gathering and in psychological warfare.
From consulting to the President, to high prestigious job of US
Secretary of State, Henry Kissinger's rising career is very interesting.
Kissinger was born in Bavaria Germany in year 1923 to a Jewish
family. They emigrated to USA in 1938. In WW2, he fought in
Germany with the rank of US Sergeant. After the war, with the
support of "GI Bill" scholarship for the war veterans, he joined to
Harvard University and earned his doctorate degree (Ph.D) in political
science. He was then invited to the Presidential circle as the political
consultant with high academic credentials. He became US Secretary
State between 1973-77. Over time, he became very successful. He
created new applications such as "Shuttle diplomacy", "dtente" in
new international relations into practice. Despite of ongoing hot war
between US and Vietnam, he operated

secret negotiations with

North Vietnam, and he has made a huge contribution to the

termination of the war. He received the Nobel peace prize. Since he
was not born in the USA, he had no right to be a Presidential
candidate.
Among the Republican candidates, there are former deputies of
presidential
Presidents.

candidates,

state

governors,

former

advisors

to

We have candidate names, Paul Ryan, Rick Santorum, Marco Rubio,

Chris Christie, Rand Paul, Sarah Palin, Condolleez Rice, and more.
We feel that the most important candidate, is the younger brother of
former President George W.Bush, namely Florida Governor "Jeb"
Bush (61). Please do note his name. Although his mother "Barbara
Bush" is very reluctant for the third Presidential candidate from her
family, if the "Bush" family decides to promote the youngest "Bush",
they have definitely high chance of winning the game. He is a
graduate of University of Texas, from Department of International
Relations with major in Latin America. He speaks Spanish fluently. He
will surely get all Latin votes.
If Republicans win the Presidential elections, they do not hesitate to
interfere the hot wars in the Middle East, in order to secure their
energy supply routes. For better national economic output, for more
growth, to earn more money in new conventional weapon
manufacturing, they love to move not only with air force but also by
foot soldiers on land for hot wars in the Middle East, namely Syria,
Iraq, Iran, Libya etc. We worry that all these war initiatives affect us
directly in our geography.
It is our sincere feeling that Pan-Islamic, New Ottoman foreign
policies are to be avoided by all means, since they are not practical,
nor have any meaning in the fragile insecure unreliable relations in
the top level decision makers of the lands of the Middle East.

New energy policies, new energy diplomacy, new ways of security in

communications, warfare and technological superiority will heavily
dominate the foreign relations.
Ankara, 16 September, 2014

Personal Observations about the Democratic Practices

German Chancellor Angela Merkel, had a misfortunate accident while
cross- country skiing during her winter holiday in Switzerland. We all
learnt the details one hour later.
Bush-era Vice President Dick Cheney's multiple cardio-vascular
surgery had revealed the weakness of the Bush-era administration in
public opinion.
The American President plays basketball, gets a ball kicked to his
unprotected face. His bleeding lips are instantly learnt by everyone.
British Prime Minister David Cameron rides bike in his spare time,
we'll know right away if he falls off the bicycle.
Although, to my feeling not yet a purely democratic country, we all
know how Russias President Putin practices judo, rides a horse, and
hunts in the Siberian wilderness.
Democratic leaders are expected to be healthy during their serving
period. They undergo periodic health checks. Their health reports are
shared with the public. Obama had received a ball kicked to his
unprotected face while playing basketball, he had lip bleeding for
immediate medical care, we all knew the details.
George W. Bush had cookies lodged in his throat, had difficulty
breathing. We were all informed. Everyone knew what happened in
the Oval Office when Bill Clinton was ruling. After the attempted

assassination of Ronald Reagan we all learnt about the shooting

details as well as about the operation and recovery period afterwards.
In non-democratic countries, the health problems of ruling leaders are
kept top secret. Russian presidents Lenin, Stalin, and Brezhnev had
brain hemorrhage due to hypertension, and the details were kept top
secret.
Our beloved Atatrk's health condition was not known by the public
until the last 3 months. That was a special case since we had been at
the brink of WWII and we had the serious Hatay crisis at our southern
border.
Bulent Ecevits Parkinson's condition was very clear. Everything was
apparent on the TV screen. But for some reason, he did not feel the
need to delegate his PM duties.
We have nothing to say for an unexpected heart attack. The late
Turgut zal, Heydar Aliyev, and Gamal Nasser have all probably had
unfortunate, lethal heart attacks.
Everything was top secret during the Soviet era, everything was a
state secret. However when Khrushchev was in New York to attend
the meeting held in the United Nations, his bodily disposals from his
NY hotel room was isolated and inspected by the U.S. Secret service.
He had diabetes and high blood pressure, which gave an indication
for his life expectancy, and transferred the information to the other
party.

Cuban leader Fidel Castro, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez,

Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat, all of them had serious health
problems which were kept secret for some time.
When India's past leader Mrs. Sonia Gandhi underwent surgery it
was belatedly disclosed to the public. In 2009, in the world's largest
democracy, India, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had heart
surgery. He was transferred to the operating room in a wheelchair,
and his situation was announced at the last minute. When the heart
surgery announcement was released, Finance Minister Pranab
Mukherjee was announced as the replacement prime minister during
that period. Singh's public life was not affected by heart disease. He
continued to serve the nation after surgery.
Fidel Castro ruled Cuba between years 1959-2008. He handed over
his responsibilities to his brother Raul Castro due to his old age and
serious health problems.
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez's health problems could not be
kept secret for long.
Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat's terminal diseases were kept away
from the public eye until his death in 2004. When it became very
serious he was admitted to a hospital in France. Suspicions were
raised about Mossad possibly poisoning him. The autopsy was
rejected by his family. The exact cause of death has remained a
mystery. In recent days the French hospital has denied all suspicions
about any poisoning.

Heads of state are generally reluctant to publicly announce their

health situations. In a democracy, the president and the prime
minister's health problems, the medical emergency interventions, are
immediately placed in front of the media.
The leadership of states must be managed by healthy people.
Leaders with health problems are to delegate their responsibilities to
another valuable public person for the good of the country. In a
democracy, no duty is absolute. Each public duty is limited to a
reasonable period of time.
In business environment, we are expected to have a full check-up
before assuming any top senior position. Persons at top business
jobs are expected to be healthy physically as well as mentally. They
do not smoke, they do not consume too much alcohol. They regularly
go to gym, are involve in sports, and pay attention to their weight and
blood pressure. We also ask new recruits to undergo serious health
checks.
In a democracy, elected political leaders are expected to be well
educated. Angela Merkel and Vladimir Putin have doctoral (PhD)
degrees. Barack H. Obama, has a postgraduate degree equivalent to
a doctorate in law. Japanese PM Shinzo Abe, French President
Francois Hollande, and British Prime Minister David Cameron have
received post-graduate education diplomas in the fields of public
administration.

Iranian President Rouhani has a doctorate degree in law from the

University of Glasgow; He speaks fluent Arabic and English.
Well-educated political leaders will better rule countries; they will
keep the country free of troubles, free from the war as well as from
economic problems. They try to keep more positive economic
indicators, low inflation figures, better economic growth, more welfare
for citizens. They also refrain from cross-border military adventures.
There are also other virtues for the public figures. The Obama family
attends church on Sundays. They are good at singing popular songs
and dancing.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel goes to Berlin philharmonic
concerts every week with her husband and listens to music from the
back seats. Putin goes to opera performances at Bolshoi Theatre.
Democratic practices, habits, and practices are not immediately put
into writing. Hence they are spoken in time, discussed until a
common consensus is reached, and then accepted by everyone. In
this context, I tried to describe the subject in draft and hereby present
it to you. Comments are always welcome. A Happy and Prosperous
New Year to you all! Kindest regards
Oberstdorf, Germany, 10 January 2014

Angie's house in Berlin and her mobile phone

In the United States, President Barack H. Obama and his family live
in the White House in Washington D.C. In France, President Francois
Hollande and his girlfriend live at the Elysee Palace in Paris. In
England, British Prime Minister David Cameron lives at 10 Downing
Street in London.
Where do German Chancellor Angela Merkel and her husband
reside? German Chancellor Angela Merkel lives in her own apartment
in Berlin with her husband. Her Berlin flat, a penthouse, is located in
the pedestrian-only Museum Island zone, close to the Pergamon
Museum. The street is closed to vehicle traffic but pedestrians are still
allowed through. The only sign of her security is the police officers at
the apartments entry. Her house is so modest compared to other
heads of states. It is amazing.
On the mailbox at the apartment entrance is the name written on the
door bell of her apartment: "Professor Sauer". Prof. Sauer is her
husband. He teaches in the Chemistry Department at the nearby
Humboldt University. There is certainly an official residential house
reserved for the German chancellors and which was occupied by the
former prime ministers. But Chancellor Angela Merkel preferred to
stay in her own apartment.
We have some similarities in our country. Former President Ismet
Inonu used to live in a small house commonly referred to as the "Pink

Mansion". Former Prime Minister and former President Sleyman

Demirel still lives in a modest house in Guniz Street in Ankara.
Former Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit used the ground floor of an
apartment in Oran County, Ankara.
Chancellor Angela Merkel's lifestyle may be highly objectionable. She
is the leader of one of the worlds few rich and powerful countries,
controlling the future of hundreds of millions of people in the
European Union. One can argue that she should not choose a
lifestyle according to her personal preferences. Regardless, her
personal safety must be the top priority.
There were lessons learned from the fate of late Swedish Prime
Minister Olof Palme. He too led a simple life according to personal
choices while holding the high office. Although his assassination has
not

been

completely

solved,

the

public

has

suffered

the

consequences.
U.S. presidents have had their share of security issues. Abraham
Lincoln and John F. Kennedy were assassinated. Attempts were
made on Ronald Reagan's life. Which all may go a fair distance to
explain the need for heavy-handed security around U.S. presidents.
Other notable world figures got their share too. Mahatma Gandhi,
founder of India and then Prime Minister Indra Gandhi were
assassinated, so was the Nobel Prize recipient, Egyptian President
Anwar Sadat.

On the other hand, we presume that U.S. President John F.

Kennedy's murder was solved. Even the most protected president
Ronald Reagan, for example can be attacked. It is a matter of how
organized and how determined the attacker is.
After being elected, U.S. President Barack Obama was compelled to
abandon his "BlackBerry" smart phone to avoid any security
breaches in his telecommunications. He has to talk through secure
telephones. He has no personal e-mail address, nor any Facebook or
Twitter account. He has neither a personal website nor a blog in the
cyber world. Everything is done and run by his staff on his behalf.
Angela Merkel had a mobile phone with a so-called secure
connection. It was revealed that her communication had been tapped
by U.S. intelligence agencies. It was a very awkward situation for
both parties.
German intelligence agencies could not achieve full security. U.S.
intelligence

agencies

were

found

monitoring

all

the

telecommunication of an ally leader. She expressed her displeasure

with a sour facial expression in public. The American agencies
stopped monitoring her, but expressed that they would monitor her
staff and close colleagues, advising that it was necessary for global
security.
We understand that everyoneevery phonecould be tapped. Our
public leaders, all public administrators could be tapped in spite of all
possible security measures. Public leaders are to ensure the personal

safety of the people on the streetto allow them to walk freely to

speak freely and comfortably without fearing any danger. This is not a
luxury, nor is heaven reserved only for leaders.
There was a time when leaders could choose to be close to the
people on the street. But these were the days of the happy past. Our
beloved Ataturk lived all his life intimately with his people. He drank
together, ate dinner together, swim together with them in the sea.
On the other hand, Russian leader Lenin was also close to his people
but he could not escape multiple assassination attempts with toxic
lead bullets. Those poisonous bullets were effective in shortening his
life.
Mahatma Gandhi, founder of India, then Prime Minister Mrs. Indra
Gandhi, both were assassinated due to the weakness of their
personal security. Our late President and Prime Minister Ismet Inonu
and our late Prime Minister Turgut Ozal both had close calls with
assassination. After his prime ministerial responsibilities Nihat Erim,
too, was killed later in his private life.
The best personal policy may be to stay away from politics. No matter
how you reach the top, there will be a multitude of personal
protections in your private life. You will be at the mercy of your
security personneltheir prisoner for life. You will not walk freely on
the streets or stroll at the seaside shore. You wont be able to take a
ride on the city bus nor the ferry. The metro will become an
impossibility for the rest of your life.

The personal protection and security measures of top positions are

almost at a level of paranoia, as demonstrated in their foreign travels.
U.S. presidents travel on their "Air Force One" special airplane at full
security. In foreign countries they stay in their own hotel owned by
American investors. The hotel is reserved completely for the
president, his staff and security. All commercial reservations are
cancelled during his stay. His fully-secure special car is transported
by another cargo plane prior to his arrival to the destination. Most
foreign leaders who are visiting our country stay in their own embassy
grounds for security purposes.
Angela Merkel's residence in the Berlin Museum Island is in a
pedestrian zone. It is certainly protected by high-level physical and
electronic surveillance. We can be sure that the German secret
services take no risk in this regard. It is certainly the same case at 10
Downing. The protection of the head of state is the top priority,
notwithstanding their own personal preferences. Anyhow, we have
many lessons to learn from the lifestyle preferences of foreign
leaders. What do you think? Your comments are always welcome.
Oberstdorf, Germany, 5 March 2014

Energy Market Dynamics

The Soma mine disaster which took place on the 13 th of May, 2014
resulted in the highest loss of human life caused by a man-made
structure in the last 40-years globally. It is for sure that the accident
occurred due to poor safety measures and priority being given to coal
production rather than the safety norms which are to be upgraded to
the level of world standards. The Soma disaster stemmed from
imprudence.
Your writer believes that local coal is the solution to the ever
increasing energy demand within the local market. The high quality
coal produced from underground mining is not burned in our local
thermal power plants. This rich coal is used in industry, mainly in iron
and steel mills. Our local thermal power plants use the nearby openpit poor quality lignite, sometimes called brown coal, which cannot be
utilized elsewhere.
Coal is accused of being the "death trap" of energy sources and we
receive many evaluations that we should move away from coal to
other sources. This is incorrect. Local coal is a blessing for this
country that can be utilized to free ourselves from imported fuel coalgas, to reduce current account deficiencies (CAD), and to increase
supply security. Hydro, wind, and solar energies are not alternatives
but supplemental sources of energy generation.

Today, we will cover the latest developments in the local electricity

market.
In the year 2002, with an amendment to the energy law, political
authorities chose to reduce the role of public enterprises in energy
generation. Preference was given to the private sector in investing
and building new power plants. Nowadays, we cannot say that we
have created a free market in the energy sector, but we can observe
that a certain level of transition has been reached.
In the market liberalization process regarding the use of natural gas
in the electricity market, our national pipeline company signed its first
purchase agreement for the sale and purchase of gas with Russias
energy giant, Gasprom, in 1984.
Later, a LNG purchase agreement was signed with Algeria. In the
following years, public and private companies made several gas
purchase agreements that contributed to the expanded volume of gas
use in the local market for household heating as well as electricity
generation.
In 1984, the first step taken towards market liberalization of the
electricity market was the division of the public energy enterprise into
firms responsible for generation (TEAS) and distribution (TEDAS).
In 1994, we had power plant investments in accordance with the
Build- Operate- Transfer (BOT) model. Similarly, we initiated the

installation of new power plants based on the Build-Own- Operate

(BOO) model.
EMRA (the Energy Markets Regulatory Agency) was established in
2001 and TEAS was divided into three companies, namely, EA
(generation), TEA (transmission), and TETA (trade). We have
created a "free consumer" concept, emphasizing the right of the
consumer to choose an electricity supplier that suits his or her
requirements.
The financial settlement method finished in 2003 and after the 2006
crisis we employed the electricity balancing and settlement regulation
method. Later, in 2010, hourly day-ahead market planning was
implemented to enable the smooth transition to free market pricing.
We had previously experienced a shortage of outsourced natural gas
in the cold winter months and faced price hikes, trapped without the
capability to negotiate.
Problems with the "intraday market" will be overcome through the
pushing forward of the transition to this market. Preliminary work has
been completed on the intraday market through the new entity
EPA, and progress will be furthered by the end of 2014 as planned.
Our total installed energy generation capacity output has reached
about 65,000 MW within the last 10 years, increasing three-fold from
earlier times. The private sector now holds a larger share of electricity
generation than the public sector.

The total installed capacity of natural gas-fired combined cycle power

plants (CCPPs) and imported coal-fired conventional power plants
has also begun to hold an important share. The purchase
agreements of natural gas-fired CCPPs which were built according to
BOO and BOT contracts will come to an end, and then we expect to
see new movement in the markets.
With the increasing number of wind power plant installations, Turkey
now ranks 10th in Europe in terms of installed wind power. By 2023,
we have a target to reach an installed wind electricity capacity of
20,000 MW which is unlikely to be attained. We hope that by
accelerating the regulation process of licensing and issuance of new
wind energy permits, we can increase wind power generation.
Moreover, wind and solar power companies will be able to generate
additional income through carbon markets.
Turkey's energy consumption has increased by 7% annually over the
last 10 years, hence the doubling of its output capacity. Investors
have gained market experience with regards to the growth forecasts
which are very important in initiating new investments. BOO and BOT
power plants continue to have long-term power purchase agreements
for the sale of electricity to the public trading company (TETA).
EA (the public generation company) and other free power
generation companies have bilateral agreements through which
energy can be sold to consumers on the spot market. The public
trade company (TETA) sells electricity, based on national tariffs, to
distribution and retail companies which in turn sell to end consumers.

Electricity produced from renewable energy sources have guaranteed

purchase prices which can be sold to retail companies at a premium
price. Available electricity in the local market is sold on the dayahead market according to balancing power market procedures.
Currently, the balancing market has a lack of transparency/openness,
as seen in the observation that the existing structure is amenable to
manipulation.
In the years to come, however, market shares of EA and TETA
will decrease as will those of the BOO and BOT power plants, thus
allowing different players in the market to maneuver in a more free
and competitive structure.
We expect a more transparent structure will be achieved with the help
of the Istanbul Stock Exchange, along with its private partnership with
EPA (public), the intraday market, and integration of financial
markets.
In Turkey there is also an Over the Counter (OTC) market, a bilateral
contract market that works in a more limited capacity and for shorter
periods of time. Here, agreements are subject to stamp duty, there
are a smaller number of participants, and intermediaries are unique.
In the coming years we hope to increase the number of both
exhibitors and intermediaries.
In our country, we have a narrow trade volume in the "energy
exchange" market. We hope that the Istanbul Stock Exchange will
produce a higher volume of energy transactions and expect it to be

an active market in future. There are 21 active electricity distribution

companies which are expected to be transferred during the retail
sales process. Instead of operating with the current national tariff that
varies according to the supply point, we hope to adopt a regional
price method which would be aimed at resetting the eligible consumer
limit to zero.
In the natural gas market, we have a state monopoly on imports,
transmission, and marketing that is completely controlled by BOTA.
Similar to the unbundling seen in the electricity market, we expect the
same in the natural gas market. Most importation is carried out solely
by BOTA, yet its market share should decrease in the coming years.
We have been experiencing difficulties due to the low level of supply
security of natural gas reserves. In order to have better supply
security, our public authorities have introduced an investment plan for
new pipelines from northern Iraq, expressed interest in the new
offshore gas reserves of Israel/Cyprus, introduced a new LNG
terminal in Izmir, increased the capacity of gas fields in northern
Marmara, and invested in the exploration of underground gas
reserves at Salt Lake (Tuz Gl).
Our electricity market operates based on a cost-based bidding
procedure that is determined by the price of each participant's hourly
basic energy input. Via bilateral agreements or YEKDEM (the
renewable energy incentive procedure), the electrical energy
generated is transferred to the system.

Private plants do not bid in the balancing market, but they do declare
estimated production and energy amounts that they are transmitting
to the system. According to the total amount of the bids received and
the total production demand, forecasts are made at the point when
the marginal price the-day-before is decided upon.
The final price for the end consumer is then finalized by taking into
consideration the cost of lost and stolen energy, distribution costs,
delivery costs, TRTs (Turkish Radio Television) share, meter reading
costs, value added tax, and additional fees such as energy
consumption taxes. The fact that TRT receives a share still faces
ongoing criticisms. Right now the priority in electricity trading is
production optimization and fuel supply security.
In which market the electricity will be sold, at what price, and at what
time interval, are the big questions following supply security. The
consumption portfolio should be kept broad, same with the production
portfolio, and their availabilities should exhibit sufficient flexibility.
In short-term planning, demand forecasting and plant reliability have
been

gaining

importance.

In

medium-term

planning,

lasting

profitability analysis of the bilateral agreements ought to be in

included in the realization of those demand forecasts. In long-term
planning,

investment

objectives

should

also

incorporate

the

determined final amount of consumer demand.

The number of supply companies in Turkey is far too high, especially
considering how essential the amount of companies active in a

competitive market is. Compared with samples of the number of

suppliers in Europe, we observe that the smaller the number of
operations, the better it is for a healthier market.
We hope that this number will decrease over time and that in the
long-term, the purchase contracts of EA and TETA will come to
an end, tariffs will be lifted, EMRA's market share will be reduced,
and that retail players will have more freedom to establish dominant
positions in the competitive market of the future. In this way, end
users will hopefully receive cheaper and more reliable electricity as
well.
Ankara, 05 June, 2014

A Hard Land to Survive, Germany for Foreigners

A Personal Opinion
Angela Merkel is a very important politician with no rival in either the
CDU or the opposition; she won the third general elections, and she
could be in power for more terms. As Europe struggles, Merkels
party lauds German strength.
Angela Merkel is an intelligent politician and stateswoman, and her
rule of Germany is an opportunity for foreign nationals in Germany.
She had some difficult times when her two close ministers were accused of plagiarism in their PhD dissertations some 30 years ago,
and forced to resign from their public posts. Public speeches of Angela Merkel are to be read, reviewed, and evaluated at all times, as
these public speeches are key to future German and European
policies. Her last speech in the British parliament was very noteworthy.
Local security authorities mobilized only after Angela Merkel pointed
out the seriousness of Dner murders with no arrests in the last ten
years. It was disclosed that a neo-Nazi group was linked to ten
murders in Germany, but the situation is graver than that. Dner
murders and undermining by security forces are the turning point in
German-Turkish relations, to put it more bluntly.
"Dner" is also a misleading word which is widely used in some Ger-

man media sources to divert attention from "Neo-Nazi" sources. The

worst thing in Dner murders in Germany is that Turkish nationals
did not react for the last ten years, so imagine the repression of the
German environment. The latest news is 'Dner Killings' Case: Police
Find Gun Used in Unsolved Murder Series. Unsolved for the last ten
years...
Long-term ignorance and undermining by security forces are very unfortunate situations for Germany as a turning point in German-Turkish
relations. Germany is not a land of immigrants, just the opposite; it is
the fatherland of Germans. So who is the father? Koenig Ludwig 1,
Bismarck, even the Fhrer. The top one percent of affluent decisionmakers in Germany consists of highly educated intellectuals with
well-connected family heritage and no match in anywhere else in the
world. Germans are to be educated on Foreigners. Germans need
more time to stay abroad so that they understand how to be a Foreigner in a hard- hostile environment. German hostility toward foreigners will create isolation and indifference toward Germany herself.
If German authorities do not take measures to educate their own
people, I am afraid that another era of holocaust is foreseen in the future.
In supermarkets, one can easily observe that the most of the German
sales people do not serve foreigners or simply ignore them. Germans
by tradition are not so pleased with foreigners, and frankly speaking
they love themselves only. Maybe it is because of national humiliation
and widespread abuse by invading armies after WW2. However the
third generation Turkish people born here have no other place to go,

as Germany is also their own country.

German hostility toward foreigners is increasing. Survival for foreigners is getting too hard in Germany, so foreigners support each other.
The new generation of Turkish children is not Turkish anymore, hence
they are also not German, and they consist of lost people.
Turkish workers in Germany are not integrated since German society
pushes them back; Turks live in their own ghettos. However, new
generation young Turkish youth also respond in the same rude way,
eye-to-eye.
The European Union works for the most economically powerful member country, which is Germany. That is why Germany supports the
Eurozone by all means. For Germany, the country not only needs the
Euro, Germany also needs the Eurozones weakest members to remain in the Union. The Turkish economy should emancipate itself
from dependence on the EU's export domination, which is the main
reason for its ongoing current account deficiency.
The Turkish cultural environment is not less important than its counterparts in Germany. The Ankara Opera House is no less competent
in performing Tosca (Puccini) or Tannhauser (Wagner) on stage than
the Munich Bayerische Oper today, and is maybe even much better.
The Munich Bayerische Oper will have two Wagner operas in 2013,
and the best tickets are sold at 200.

The Tosca opera in the Munich Bayerische Oper was good, but I feel
that the Ankara Opera house performance was better on stage. The
Tannhauser opera by Wagner is on stage in the Ankara Opera house
last season with extraordinary performance. Although the Bayerische
Oper has a better opera building and more seating capacity than the
Ankara Opera house, I feel that the opera performance in Ankara is
much better.
Turkey is to reduce its high dependence on the EU, particularly on
German imports, and increase trade with other emerging markets in
the long run. The German competitive advantage in technological
products is being reduced due to an aging working population. Religion is the major difference between local Germans and foreign
Turks, rules, celebrations, common expectations, and lifestyle are all
different.

Sending uneducated Turkish peasants to Germany was

and is another cultural holocaust.

It was our surprise to notice that the Munich Glyptothek archeology
museum is full of marble head statues, no wonder we have so many
antique marble statues without heads in Turkey.
Turkish guest workers turned into German nationals in the later generations under German cultural influence, with no more Turkish background. First and second generation Turkish guest workers with no
formal education could not upgrade their cultural status for years so
closed themselves into their ghettos. Turkish guest workers with no
formal education unfortunately lowered the profile of Turkish status in

Germany.
Foreigners in Germany must have an emergency exit strategy at all
times in case one is needed. Foreigners face day-to-day German
hate and hostility in public transportation, in restaurants, in supermarkets, in communication with public employees. The average age of
the German population is around 48 as of 2014, the working age is
too old, and the population is unable to support the elderly with pensions. Whereas the average age of the Turkish population is around
30 now, that means Turkey has younger generation and better future
compared to Germany.
On the other hand, it is social tragedy to see elderly Germans with no
family support checking garbage in the city center to earn some
money from bottle deposits. Elderly Germans are critical of all; they
hate foreigners at all times, foreign abuse is common, bashing is usual. Elderly Germans are not so comfortable in old age, as there is too
small a workforce to serve them. The German social security system
is almost blocked; the elderly are in a miserable condition, and it is
too sad to witness.
In German public transportation, foreigners are to be careful not to
disclose their national identity, as right-wing abuse is imminent. Germany is a very difficult environment for foreigners today. In the long
term, one should have an exit plan when needed to return to his or
her home country. In your writers first long term stay in Germany beginning in 1978, much earlier than the integration of East and West,

the environment was much better for foreigners in Berlin.

Living in a foreign country is difficult for sure, but can be solved in the
long term; in Germany it is difficult in the long term. Today, Germany
still invites skilled workers from Greece, Rumania, Bulgaria. Greeks
should think twice prior to accepting an invitation. German harassment is frequent. Foreign bashing in Germany is becoming a dangerously common practice in daily life; foreign appearance in public
transportation is fatal.
German Green Foundations are purely marketing organizations of
German renewable and clean coal technologies, and that their loans
are too expensive in the long term. Make your credit repayment calculations carefully when receiving German funds, credits, and donations. Note that nothing is free in this world.
German Greens are the only political party not so hostile to foreigners
in Germany. However their latest Pedophilia decriminalization scandal is not so easy to eradicate from public memory.
The German language can only be learned in kindergarten, and cannot be learned at a middle age. Germans are the worst learners of
foreign languages, and it is almost impossible to learn their language
properly without a foreign accent; similarly they cannot fluently speak
foreign languages.
A commercial tip for business people to overcome German suprem-

acy is to make all written transactions in English on an equal basis,

never in German, and to use German only for courtesy. Never speak
in the German language, ask them to speak in English; the most of
them can't do it properly, hence they become humble, so you get
equal opportunity to negotiate.
All in all, the German environment is getting too hard for foreigners to
survive in it. Turkish small business entrepreneurs backed by family
members are quite successful in the German service market. However they are also the targets of right-wing German youth in ever-increasing harassment and abuse. It is an unbearable burden for Germans to live with Turkish neighbors due to cultural, educational, and
lifestyle differences.
Turkish-German relations are to be based on mutual respect to national interests, not on any romantic rhetoric or the historical past of
WW1. German cultural, economic, financial and technological supremacy over Turkey is to be eradicated, with respect to a fair share
that is to be accepted. In international relations and historical friendships, hostilities are not important, but national interests with respect
to fair-share are important. Munich, 28 February 2014

Hazelwood Thermal Power Plant 8x200 MWe

Today we shall review the experience of a thermal power plant (TPP)
operation on the other end of the world, a huge thermal power plant
situated 150-km's east of Melbourne, Australia. The Hazelwood
8x200Mwe output capacity local coal/lignite-firing thermal power plant
was built in early 1970's.
The plant was privatized in 1996. The parent company International
Power (GDF Suez and Mitsui) paid U.S. $2.35 billion for the 1600
MWe (1470 MWe net) thermal power plant. The new owner paid the
price, continued operation, generated electricity, sold to the grid, and
earned money.
Since the purchase in 1996, the new owners had introduced an $800
million rehabilitation program to upgrade the plant. They paid $85
million for new dust collectors and stack sulfur retention (flue gas
desulphurization, FGD) installations. It is our fair estimation that they
should be paying more than $200 million for adequate environmental
equipment. The money spent for rehab was not enough for the
necessary environmental protections.
Today Hazelwood is still on the list of the worlds most polluting TPPs
based on CO2 emission per generated kW-hour electricity. The
desired environmental emissions figures have not yet been fulfilled.
However, the plant has received extensions for the rehab period and
was also granted an extension to operate until 2030. Had the plant

not been privatized it was scheduled for closure in 2005 because of

the huge, ongoing air pollution as well as water and land pollution.
Hazelwood TPP is built next to the Morwell open-pit lignite coal field.
On 20 January 2014 an underground fire broke out in the Morwell
coal field and lasted for 40 days. The air was highly polluted; the town
of Morwell was evacuated. Huge environmental disaster occurred in
the area. If there is a malfunction, a fire, an explosion, a breakdown,
or an operational stop, there is always a human reason, some human
negligence. As there is an underground fire in Morwell, there was
some human negligence or error behind this disaster.
Which TPP's are the most air polluting in the world?
Here is the list of the worlds worst CO2 emitters per kW-hour as of
2013, based on the recent environmental report released by the EU
Energy Commission:
1) U.S., Gallagher Indiana 600 Mw; 2) Poland, Belchatow 1090 Mw;
3) Australia, Hazelwood 1,600 Mw; 4) Greece, Agios Dimitrios 1,500
Mw; 5) Greece, Cardia 1,250 Mw; 6) Greece, Megalopolis 850 Mwe;
7) Bulgaria, Maritza Iztok 1-2-3, 3000 Mwe; Drax and Eggborough in
England; Italy Brindisi South.
Which TPPs are Germanys worst polluters?
From the same report:

Frimmersdorf 2413mw A, Janschwal 3000 MWe, Weisweiler 2293

MWA, Neurath 2100 MWe, Niederausse 3864 Mwe, Boxberg 1900
MWe, Schwarze Pumpe 1600 MWe, Lippendorf 1866 MWe, Scholven
2300 Mwe. (Ref.SpiegelOnline April-2014)
It is difficult to understand why the West Niederausse plant, which
was an example of the latest technology, is in this worst-polluting
plants list. Niederausse has received the "worst polluting" plant title
due to its relatively high CO2 stack emission per kW-hour electricity
generation. One could argue that in Germany, stack emission
requirements are lowered to such levels that it justifies the incredibly
high subsidies applied to renewable energy investments.
We have Afsin-Elbistan-A and Tuncbilek TPPs on the list of the
world's top 100 worst polluting plants. In Turkey, the public authority
adopted the "Large Combustion Plants Directive" (BYTY for short in
Turkish) in 2010, with low emission requirements with which all highcapacity thermal power plants must comply. State-owned thermal
power plants are under no emission or pollution obligation to comply
with these directives until 2018. This period will be extended another
three years.
Most of the coal-firing power plants in Germany under new European
emission norms are not better than our plants in Turkey. We know
that 40% of electricity production in Germany today is provided
through domestic coal. German TPPs are burning coal with dust

filters initially designed too small to meet the new norms. Most of
them had no FGD systems to stop sulfur emissions.
Investors have no incentive to put more money into rehabilitating old
power plants, since there is no return on investment. On the other
hand, it is more rational to put money into renewable technologies, as
the money creates more employment, more production, more export
goods, and in the end creates clean energy without pollution. Power
plants are sold to private investors, with the expectation that the new
owners would invest money in rehabilitation, comply more to the new,
strict environmental norms, and further reduce stack emissions.
However these expectations were not fulfilled.
The owners asked for another time extension for rehab investments;
they were reluctant to invest the money necessary for new bigger
environmental equipment. They almost blackmailed the regulatory
authority by warning to shut down the plant, threatening not to feed
electricity to the national grid.
Since there is no return on rehab expenditures for old privatized
power plants these expenditures are only made through regulatory or
legal force.
German plants with poor environmental records are on the Polish
border in the east or on the French border in the west, where most of
the prevailing wind blows toward neighboring countries. So German
citizens are less affected by the flue gas emissions, since dust

emissions from stacks move to neighboring countries where people

have no recourse. In Germany, dirty thermal power plants are in
operation in remote lands far from cities, far from monitoring
environmentalists.
In almost every part of the world private investors receive political
support in their new power plant constructions. Local people on farm
lands were the victims of these policies. Land, air, water, river, and
sea environments were highly polluted. Brazilian rainforest has been
heavily damaged. People in nearby agricultural lands that had high
expectations for local employment were cheated. They lost their land
and their environment. Trust was lost. Local resistance in every
nearby community started organizing to stop or legally block any new
power plant investments.
Thermal power plants are designed to fire the coal of nearby open-pit
fields. However, it is recommended to eradicate the non-combustible
substances such as rocks, stones, and soilsomething that can be
accomplished through simple eye screening and hand picking for
selection and extraction. This procedure greatly improves operation
and reduces breakdowns, stops, and unnecessary emergency
repairs.
In the past, coal was fed into the coal mills at the Soma thermal
power plant as received, without extracting rocks and stones. The
average calorific value at the inlet of the combustion chamber was
less than 1900-2000 kCal/kg, much less than boiler design figures.

Inflammable materials, rocks, and stones were fed into coal mills,
pulverized, and fed into the combustion chamber but could not be
burned since they have no calorific value. They were released from
the stack as fly ash particulates, were not captured by small dust
filters, and increased nearby air pollution. The bottom ash increased,
was fed into the ash dam which then had a much shorter life span
than expected.
The Soma TPP then employed unqualified labor to screen (by hand)
inflammable rocks and stones at the conveyor exit from mine fields,
to increase the calorific value to the 2500-2800 kCal/kg range;
efficiency was increased, availability was also increased. The load on
coal pulverization mills was reduced, internal energy consumption
was reduced, as was less fly ash, less dust, fewer emissions, and
less bottom ash, and performance was improved.
We all wish that our coal facilities were equipped with water floating
(lavuar) systems to clean the coal and separate it from the noncombustible rocks and stones. So we create higher calorific value
coal to feed into combustion chambers so that we operate boilers
more efficiently and with fewer failures, less fly ash, and less bottom
ash.
Following the assets sales by private operators, power plants are
expected

to

begin

large-scale

rehabilitation

with

better

instrumentation, bigger dust filters, and more effective sulfur capture.

However, they are not.
Buyers are generally reluctant

to put

money toward plant

rehabilitation. They do not want to put money into bigger and better
environmental equipment, which are known not to generate returns.
They want more time extensions for such investments. They operate
old plants at maximum capacity while polluting the environment,
generating electricity, selling to the grid, and earning money.
Regulatory

agencies

are

helpless.

Environmental

protection

investments are not meeting expectations. Plants are aging fast and
degrading rapidly, leading to more plant failures, more mine fires,
more accidents, inefficient operation, and a reduction in capacity.
Investors demand more grant time extensions for rehab investments
and more exemptions for meeting EU environmental norms. The first
priority is high income in privatization, but clean environmental norms
are not met in the short term.
Turkey local coal reserves constitute the majority of the young lignite
resources, with high humidity (35-55%), high-volatile (38-68%), high
sulfur (1-3%), containing highly alkaline (0.025 to 0045%) and low
calorific value (1100-2500 kcal/kg LHV).
We have power plants with long proven successful operation with
available local coal. They are designed in direct or indirect pulverized
coal firing or in circulating fluid bed (CFB) combustion designs.

As a result of the brutal competition in the public auctions of the plant

sales, the emergence of too high prices, the initial owner of the
property (privatization authority), can be named very successful.
Though proposals are expected to cover concrete rehab programs
upfront, they are unfortunately unfulfilled in the end.
New owners prioritize earnings and repayment plans, but they avoid
rehab and renovation expenditures. Environmental sensitivity over
the medium and long terms as well as economic goals concerning the
well-being of society are not allowed. That tendency is everywhere.
Our access to primary energy resources may be negatively impacted
by our sensitive geography and evolving political events. Domestic
lignite sources are to be exploited in more and more efficient new
thermal power plants. It is essential that energy generation increases.
What experience have we gained from these observations?
We feel that it is wise to demolish old, degraded thermal power
plants, sell them for scrap, replace them with new and better efficient
plants of cutting edge design and the latest technology that can be
manufactured domestically. In the long term, building a new modern
power plant is cheaper than to purchasing an old plant and trying to
rehabilitate it. With the new, modern, higher-efficiency power plants,

we shall have better availability, better efficiency, and optimal

compliance with the expected EU environmental norms.
Oberstdorf, Germany, 14 April, 2014

Project finance is getting too difficult for Thermal Power

Plants
Coal field royalty tenders are in line with expectations these days.
Companies get the rights to operate coal fields in order to build new
thermal power plants nearby. They will build thermal power plants
with technology appropriate to fire local coal, generate electricity, sell
to the local market, get revenues and pay unit rental royalties to the
treasury for the next 49 years.
In order to reach this target, investors have a four-year construction
period and maybe two to three years to secure project finance and
select the appropriate contractors to build the plant. Investors do not
have the time. Investment money is scarce and very precious. They
are expected to contribute to the overall cost with their own money.
They have to stick their neck out and share around 20-30% of the
project financing risk by contributing their own company sources.
The remaining 80-70% of the project cost is sourced from
international financial markets. Investors look for financing packages
from reliable contractors with the appropriate technology at the
cheapest price and payment terms. They look for a return on their
money in the shortest possible time period.
In order to secure project finance they have to work with the best
consultants

to

prepare

the

necessary

"due

diligence"

and

"environmental impact assessment" (EIA) reports to present to

financial markets. We are taking about billions of dollars of project

financing. Investors must find a trusted team of international advisors
to secure the necessary project finance.
For such bankable upfront reports, a few million dollars are spent to
convince the international finance institutions to put money into the
project. There are no shortcuts; even if you release an "EIA is not
necessary" law, markets would still require you to submit a bankable
EIA for the interested parties and funding agencies to review. Those
reports are much more serious than our locally made reports. All
kinds of technical-political-social risks are investigated very seriously.
Advantages and disadvantages are clearly stated, net return, social
impacts, political risks, and return on investment are all clarified in
detail. For more information on the EIA procedures, one should read
the annual "IFC bankable EIA" document.
With reliable and bankable due diligence and EIA reports, the
agencies call for international project finance to construct the thermal
power plant. The reports clarify project costs, risks, interests,
repayment period, and grace period for interested international
financial institutions.
In the end, financial institutions with some extra money may become
interested in the project. They come together and create a
partnership to share the risks and revenue. For the co-financing, they
form a consortium to work together to realize the project. The
consortium is made public through media sources. All participants,
engineers, lawyers, and financiers get acrylic plaques called

"tombstones" to commemorate the closing of the project finance. Your

writer also has a few of them on his work table. A nearly 1,000-page
financing contract is written with the risks, revenues, guarantees, and
penalties clearly stated. For all risks, each risk parameter is specified
and clearly priced. Lawyers, funders, engineerseveryone earns
money.
In order to receive international funding, it is necessary to have
certain minimum financial political social conditions in the country.
Free, competitive, transparent market conditions are to be secured.
The "rule of law" is to be maintained. Laws, rules, and regulations
should not be changed arbitrarily. International laws are to be
recognized and local laws are to conform to international norms, i.e.
European Union norms. The rule of law, separation of powers,
freedom of speech, transparency, competitive tendering, are very
important in order for local markets to attract project financing.
Corruption and bribery are to be avoided by all means.
It is our sincere feeling that there is an ongoing, informal, undeclared
ban on international financing for our domestic investment projects
due to the new prevailing undemocratic climate. If these needed
investment norms are not met in the local market, then risks increase,
the countrys financial ratings get lowered, project premiums (i.e.
interest rates) increase, and the appetite for investment toward that
market falls. Projects cannot attract the attention of funders. If a
market is in a mess, if risks cannot be clearly identified, if
laws/rules/regulations are arbitrary or unreliable, if there is no

freedom of speech, if there are corruption rumors at the top, then

international project financing institutions will be reluctant to get
involved. Funds become inaccessible. Money sources dry up.
In this case, what happens when East Asian companies get
interested and involved in those projects in a high risk climate?
Nowadays, we see very cheap turnkey proposals for the thermal
power plants from those sources financed by their export-import
banks. There is always an accumulated high price in return. These
companies put down their own terms on the negotiation table. They
dictate their own terms, and insist that the local investor accept all of
them; they wait patiently till the end. They have limited or even no
flexibility in their terms most of the time, no guarantees, no penalties,
and very limited liability terms in their contract. There is no change in
their contract terms. They wait until the investor accepts all as
submitted. There is almost no bargaining power in the hands of the
local investor. It is a trap, and investor must accept it because there
are no other options.
A bankable EIA report is not important for them. It is only important
that you accept all their contractual terms. The wording in plant
guarantees, efficiency, performance, availability, delivery terms, delay
penalties are all meaningless. Most of the time there are no
necessary spare parts or spare equipment to ensure the power
plants continuous, smooth operation. They do not use our standard
contract terms available in our public institutions.

The simplest contract term for a "two-month uninterrupted trial period"

does not exist in the final contract. Its all intentionally ignored so that
the plant cannot be rejected in case the plant fails. You have no right
to insert your own contract terms. The initial price may be very low.
But in the end, the projects final, cumulative cost is not cheap at all.
Environmental protection equipment, dust collection filters, and sulfur
retention systems are inadequate. Combustion efficiency is lower
than market norms. The designs are not tested nor proven to be able
to fire local domestic coal over long-term operation. Contractors
complete their two-year probationary operation and immediately
leave the site. The owner is left with a problem-ridden plant incapable
of operating without interruption.
Investors, those owners of the plant with similar experience all around
the world, do not reveal information about their problems. Fearing a
loss of reputation, they hide their problemseven as matters get
worseand finally they turn to rehabilitation, re-powering, and
renovation and spend more money to upgrade their power plants.
In the past, these contracting companies would bring their low-cost
workers from their own country to do civil construction, foundations,
and the plants site installation. In recent years, legal regulations have
been passed to stop the use of foreign workers. Now, all construction
and site installation works are done by domestic companies who
would offer cutthroat low prices. In any case, it provides some
opportunities for local employment.

The money allocated to foreign investment is very valuable and not

easy to put together. Money is not easily earned anywhere. Project
financing for billion-dollar thermal power plant investments is a very
serious activity. Hence market direction, public regulation and serious
limitations are to be enforced to secure the proper spending of
investors' public money. So it is all our prime responsibility to restore
the necessary international investment norms and preconditions in
our local environment. Your comments are always welcome.
Oberstdorf, Germany, 23 March 2014

Renewable Energy in Turkey,

Today & Tomorrow
Last year (2013), we consumed total of 245 billion kW-hours of
electricity in Turkey. Turkish electricity generation grew around 6%
compared to the previous year. Dependence on imported fossil fuels
was around 71-72%. Our total expenditure on fossil fuels imported in
the current account deficit was around $60 billion in 2013.
By the end of 2013, our installed capacity had reached 64.044 MWe.
Peak (maximum) demand was 39,000 MWe in last August. This peak
(maximum) demand was our prime concern when it came to
satisfying the local market without interruption. Increasing the
installed capacity is not enough. Because we have different
availability hours and different capacity factors on each power
generation plants depending on sources of water, wind, solar, and
fuel supply.
In 2013 a total of 157 new private sector power plants were put into
operation, a total of 4,329 MW of additional capacity was added. Of
the total installed power output, 66% is generated by the private
sector. Our rate of 50% dependence on natural gas in 2012 fell to
44% last year.
Renewable energy sources include channel or river-type hydro power
plants, wind farms, solar plants, and biomass power plants. Hydro

power plants with man-made lakes larger than 15 km2 are not termed
renewable.
This year we are experiencing a severe drought. Snow-rain
precipitation has not been received yet. We consume clean reservoir
waters very wastefully. Agricultural lands have unnecessary irrigation
practices. Wetlands have shrunk.
We operate fossil fuel-firing thermal power plants that cover almost
85% of our total electricity generation capacity, and whose CO2 stack
gas emissions are constantly increasing. Due to our rapidly-growing
energy needs for our industries as well as household consumption,
we have difficulties in enacting restrictions to reduce fossil fuel usage.
We have to consume our local lignite at a reasonable rate to reduce
our dependence on imported fossil fuel. On the other hand, our total
CO2 emissions as well as dust dissipations are increased by fossil
fuel firing in our existing thermal power plants. That is also due to old
technologies employed without CO2 reductions and the low
capacities of dust-collecting precipitators.
Due to our continuous and rapidly growing need for more energy, we
have difficulties in putting restrictions on thermal power plant
operations. We can not stop operating thermal power plants. We can
not stop investing in them. We can only try to reduce the rate of
growth in our fossil fuel dependence.
All in all, we must give more importance to our renewable energy
resources. We have running spring water in our rivers for hydro

power plants, we have more powerful sunshine than our European

rivals so we can generate more electricity in our solar panels, we
have strong winds on three sides of our seashores to generate
electricity from wind farmsall of it free of charge, for the price of
installation and negligible operating and maintenance expenses.
For each 1-Mwe electricity generation from fossil fuel-firing thermal
power plants, we have CO2 stack emissions which take almost
120,000 trees to be converted into O2.
This year we have an ongoing drought with less and less rain. The
water in our reservoirs can only generate 30% of the installed
capacity at our hydro power plants. Reservoirs are not the answer to
our immediate water requirements. Storage is not a cheap solution.
Reservoirs are costly to build, and not so efficient in electricity
generation.
Our interconnected power line network is not powerful enough for the
electricity generated. New, better, more powerful interconnecting
power lines are needed. Peak electricity generation is different in
different power plants. Renewable energies are scattered. The cost is
high.
Your author is opposed to investment incentives since they always
lead to abuse in practice all around the world. Enhancing the
incentives is an unnecessary cost added to the electricity price and
passed on to the end user.

When incentives are requested they are secured most of the time,
though they are always misused. Bureaucratic procedures for
investment

incentives

are

tiresome,

complicated,

long,

and

insufficient. They require lots of unnecessary paperwork. When you

submit the necessary paperwork, you get the incentive in time. There
is almost no screening. The rejection rate is very low.
Our public administrators were prepared to have some delay in
realizing renewable energy investments. They expected the first
installment costs to lower price levels in the market. Prices were high
due to R&D costs. The costs would go to the R&D expenses of
foreign suppliers. Now we feel that prevailing market prices are down
to reasonable levels in international markets. Local production is also
possible. We still need more investments in interconnecting highvoltage transmission lines in order to make them available to
scattered power plants in remote regions.
Now, the first installment costs at renewable power plant have been
dropped. The unit prices of renewable energy from wind and solar are
coming close to the electricity prices generated from conventional
fossil fuel-firing thermal power plants. Domestic manufacturing
facilities for wind and solar are increasing in number.
Wind turbine towers and propellers are being manufactured locally.
Domestically-manufactured PV panels for solar energy can be
produced in 17 plants.
Previously, there was no funding, almost no incentive for renewable
energy investment. Since public administrators felt that the prices

were too high it was not good timing to initiate renewable energy
investments.
Now, we foresee that we are ready to manufacture hydraulic
equipment to cover all our hydraulic potential in 5-10 years with a
high share of domestic production.
The share of electricity costs per kWe-hour which go to the
government are too high. That is also an extra cost to the end user.
That figure is fixed via competitive tendering, but prices that high
make the projects not so feasible in the long term. The rate of return
on the investments and repayments are difficult.
The public has a general feeling that the "private sector makes the
best calculations in investments. They have the right thinking at all
times when it comes to making new investments." That is not always
true. Private sector investors also make mistakes in their calculations.
They make random spending decisions under a herd instinct, in line
with others, as in the latest fashion trends. Projects may not pay for
themselves within reasonable time periods. Tough competition can
make final projects unreasonably costly or not feasible, all due to
miscalculations.
For wind energy investments, public authorities require two years of
field measurements. That is reasonable. The same is required for
solar energy investments, which is totally unreasonable, as for solar
energy you can calculate the expected energy generation with the
latitude-longitude coordinates of the location.

Two years of field measurements for solar energy are unnecessary.

That is an unnecessary burden on solar energy investments. We
presume that public administrations require serious investors to pay a
certain, serious lump-sum of money upfront. Serious companies pay
that cost; the others are eliminated. All the required documents and
paperwork are also unnecessary. Who will read them?
We have also another application of cheap local production, licensefree, inefficient, hot water-collecting solar panels. With some more
investment, we can produce better quality PV panels to generate
electricity. Hot water generators are also good for local household
needs for hot water, in order to reduce fossil fuel expenditures.
Earlier renewable investments were expensive, their electricity
generation unit prices were high. Most of them were installed in
remote regionson mountains, far from the main high-voltage
transmission lines. These have been updated. Prices have been
reduced to affordable levels, local production facilities have been
created. Instead of direct incentives for first installments, public
authorities now put a reasonable investment in electricity generation.
There is now a guaranteed purchase price of $.055 per kWh
renewable electricity which could be raised to $0.22 per kWh if local
content is high.
Renewable energy investments have hurdles to overcome in site
selection, predetermined energy resources if it is wind or solar, legal
rules and regulations, and guaranteed sales pricesall of which
should always be taken into consideration prior to investment

decisions. In the business environment, we focus on solving

problems, not creating new ones.
We need to reduce our current account deficit. We need to reduce
the intake of imported fossil fuels. We should make more long-term
investments in renewable energy and we need to increase domestic
manufacturing.
Oberstdorf, Germany, 23 January 2014

Soma should be the last disaster !!

On Tuesday May 13, 2014 at around 15:00, we were faced with the
greatest human loss from a man-made disaster in our modern history.
The largest accident to occur in recent years took place in the Soma
county of the Manisa Province in the Eynez Region, below the earth
in the Karanlk Dere (Dark Creek) Soma coal mines. The disaster
began with underground mine fires that spewed out dense carbon
monoxide, poisoning and killing hundreds of miners as well as mining
engineers.
While evaluating the current disaster situation, we should approach
the causes of the accident with great caution. Without having detailed
technical information, it is too early to come to a final, accurate
conclusion as to what initiated the accident.
We understand that in lieu of serious costly renovation investments,
operation preferred extreme forced air circulation in the underground
coal field tunnels, blowing excessive clean air with high capacity
forced air fans into the mine fields which are 420 meters below sea
level. Forced draft fresh air ventilators were overloaded, suction side
induced draft fans were similarly overloaded. Both fans consumed
huge amounts of energy from the underground high voltage
transformer. The transformer was overloaded, overheated, and
eventually caught fire in the end. This is what we know now. All other
unconfirmed speculation remains hearsay.

We were told that the main transformer combusted, creating an

underground fire that blocked access to all emergency exists and
halted the elevators, thus preventing escape. At the time of the
accident at 15:00, two different groups were on site due to a shiftchange. Around 700+ miners were trapped underground. All were
exposed to and suffered from carbon monoxide poisoning.
Initial descriptions of the accident in which the transformer exploded
(or caught aflame) have brought about increased confusion.
In mining practices, transformers should be manufactured and
supplied according to highly regulated safety standards. They have a
low probability of combustion, even under extreme workloads.
Underground high voltage transformers are isolated in protective
concrete enclosures that shield the mine from all fire accidents.
In addition, all electrical wiring and equipment is manufactured and
supplied in accordance with certified explosion-proof (flame-proof)
standards. To further reduce the possibility of fires, a "dry-type" of the
explosion-proof high voltage transformer is selected. Thus we feel
that the explosion of any transformer has a low probability, due to the
typical highly protective mechanical features of the normal operation
practices.
A team of local engineers from the Turkish Chamber of Electrical
Engineers went to the mines where the accident occurred the
following day to investigate the situation. They apprised that there

was an underground fire which ignited the coal mines, thus creating
carbon monoxide which in turn poisoned the miners.
Fresh air ventilation systems were disrupted as mechanical routing
was not activated. Automation systems and escape elevators were
not in operation. Fresh air could not be pumped below -700 meter
elevations. The effects of the fire, smoke, and carbon monoxide were
seen in widespread burns and poisoning.
Underground instruments made to detect toxic and explosive gases
within the fresh air ventilation system were inadequate, obsolete, and
non-renovated. Combustion starting in the underground mine fields
was composed of deadly carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, and
methane gases that were responsible for a large number of deaths.
There are rescue workers still in the mine but hope for those still
trapped inside is diminishing.
The rescue operations were extremely difficult due to the fires inside
the mine. Emergency elevators should have been in operation and a
stand-by power supply should have been available.
Until the year 2007, the mine was operated by a state-owned
company named "Aegean Lignite" enterprises, which was criticized
for its high operation costs. Later, the mine operation was privatized.
Operation is now profitable. It pays a 25% fee to the Treasury on
supplies mined. The new owners declare that their coal price is now

at 24 US dollars per metric ton of coal with a 4000 kcal/kg lower

heating value, which corresponds to 1.50 US Dollars per MMBTU at
mine mouth delivery. But at what cost? Is it because of the low wages
of

the

workers?

Limited

renovation

investments?

Out-dated

equipment? Blocked or inoperable detection instruments?

The Izmir Branch of the Chamber of Mining Engineers released a
public statement that the accident/explosion was caused by gas that
was created when the transformer overloaded and consequently
ignited. In these types of fire accidents, toxic gases that can induce
poisoning make it so that workers cannot approach the source
without masks and protective glasses.
Cheap cables which are manufactured by countries in Eastern
Europe and the Far East, emit noxious gases when burned. The
underground mining area is currently closed to any technical
inspections and investigations. We understand that Turkish Coal
Enterprise has already transferred their "dry-type" transformers to the
new owners for upgrading and renovation.
Throughout the world, most new buyers of privatized coal fields and
private buyers of thermal power plants do not pay for the
rehabilitation, renovation, or upgrading of the plants. Instead they
continue to operate with existing equipment, pay more to public
relations, pay less to workers, generate income, and postpone the
replacement of equipment with better and bigger capacities. They
avoid spending money on upgrading the plants or mine fields, they

dig deeper into the mines, sell to the plants, and generate electricity
and income.
Regulating

agencies

are

helpless

everywhere.

Environmental

expectations of the society are not met. Plants are operated at

extremely high load conditions, so in the end, mine field are depleted
quickly, thermal power plants rapidly degrade, and businesses age
swiftly.
For these reasons they face mine fires, mining accidents, inefficient
procedures, capacity reduction, restricted availabilities, low efficiency,
a high number of interruptions, and many halts on operations. When
rehabilitation expenditures are delayed, we notice continuous
demands

for

time

extensions

for

renovations,

requests

for

exemptions from the responsibilities to invest in environmentallysound equipment, and the avoidance of environmental emissionlimitation norms. Societies' expectations for better operations, a
cleaner environment, and higher salaries are not met.
In privatization, in the asset sales of power plants or in the leasing of
mine fields, society expects a better environment, better job and
safety standards, healthy and safe workplaces, and better plant and
mine operations. These are also not met. We wish that we had been
taught our lesson after all of these unpleasant, painful events. We
select our politicians to better regulate these operations, for more
secure, modern, and healthier workplace environments, complete
with better functioning secure working conditions. In the end, we are

all responsible for monitoring these plants and mine fields 24/7,
through our public officials as well as our local NGOs.
On behalf of the Turkish Weekly family, we extend our heartfelt
condolences to the families of the victims and our sincere wishes for
the safe evacuation of the remaining miners. We send our heartfelt
condolences to the families of those who passed in the Manisa Soma
mine collapse. Our thoughts are with the people of Soma County and
we pray for those who are still trapped inside.
Ankara, 16 May, 2014

Is there any relation between the Soma mine disaster &

thermal power plants?
We should keep in mind that the majority of our existing local thermal
power plants do not use high calorie coal from underground mines.
Open-pit lignite coal with a low calorific value is most commonly used
to power existing thermal power plants in generating electricity. The
design for power plants firing imported coal is completely different.
Here, imported coal comes from the nearest sea port.
Only at the atalaz- B thermal power plant do we fire byproduct
wastes of the hard coal "water floating enrichment" process, which
has an approx. 3000 kcal/kg LHV (lower heating value). Here, hard
coal is water washed, enriched, and delivered to the steel industry,
and the remaining poor quality byproduct waste is delivered to the
thermal power plant, since it cannot be utilized elsewhere.
You cannot burn imported coal in a thermal power plant which is
designed to fire poor quality lignite, similarly you cannot fire poor
quality lignite in a thermal power plant that is designed to fire
imported coal. The plant designs are completely different.
The Soma Eynez underground mine produces high calorie lignite with
a 4000-6000 kcal/kg LHV which is then delivered to iron and steel
industries in Aliaa and other nearby industrial zones. The high
quality coal is also used for household heating in the winter. We have

some use of this high quality coal at thermal power plants but
consumption remains very limited.
There is no direct relationship between the high quality coal of Soma
Eynez and the nearby Soma thermal power plant. The Soma thermal
power plant Unit-B uses poor quality 1500-2200 kcal/kg LHV lignite
from open-pit lignite mines elsewhere in the region, mostly from the
Soma Deni open-pit coal fields. This low calorie, poor quality lignite
cannot be utilized anywhere other than at the thermal power plants
that are designed to fire this lignite coal.
Elbistan Klaky and llolar, Soma Deni, Yeniky, and Kemerky
are similar open-pit coal mines that feed the nearby thermal power
plants. On the other hand, at the ayrhan coal town, there are newly
opened underground quarries that are fully mechanized in their
mining work. In our country there are a few new locations where we
extract high quality coal from underground mine fields in a
mechanized fashion and deliver the fuel to adjacent thermal power
plants.
The newly commissioned Adularia Yunus Emre Thermal Power Plant,
consumes coal from the mines nearby. Here, the underground mine
fields

produce

cheaper

mine

mouth

coal

prices

with

full

mechanization and qualified technicians that are employed according

to strict safety standards.
Since the nearby open-pit coal fields are about to be depleted in
Tunbilek Derin Sahalar (Deep Field), Yataan Turgut and Yeniky

Karacahisar, next on the agenda of these operations will be their

further expansion underground in the search for new mechanized
coal investments. Prior to their licensing and investment incentives,
we should encourage full mechanization in their new investment
spending.
However, each coal field has specific characteristics in that
mechanized underground operation may not be suitable at all times.
For mechanized investment many parameters are to be evaluated.
Investors are to investigate proven reserves, geological structure,
hydrogeological situation, as well as properties of rocks, coal
thickness, depth, width, slope, etc.
In these new underground mine ventures, we should encourage fullymechanized operations if applicable, and try to avoid labor-intensive
coal production. It would be best if we stayed away from laborintensive fields that employ shovel production for a while. We know
that each coal field site has its own unique design and planning. In
this regard, making generalizations is not recommended. The public
authorities should impose regulations on expropriation permits and
environmental

criteria

in

order

to

promote

safer

working

environments.
In the Elbistan llolar open-pit low calorie lignite mine fields, we
faced the misfortune of landslides due to ignorance of safe working
standards. This resulted in casualties, whose causes are yet to be
clarified.

The Yeniky and Kemerky open pit coal excavations have depleted
the coal fields, and their natural structures have changed. Here, land
filling, leveling, and planting for agriculture purposes remain
unfinished.
Moreover, the Yataan fields produce coal with high levels of
radioactivity and continues to have problems in solving on-site ash
dam accumulation. Other thermal power plants and coal mines are
mostly open pit. With this method, the soil on top of the mine field is
removed and the extracted coal is sent to nearby power plants with
conveyor belts, buckets, etc.
Mechanized practices are more easily applied in open fields. We do
not face the risk of carbon monoxide poisoning as can be the case
with deep underground labor intensive mining. But here, outdoor
operation problems are different and can include landslides and mine
subsidence. Random and widespread coal fires are another danger.
Different safety measures are necessary in open-pit coal mines.
In low calorie coal firing thermal power plants, the first ignition in the
boiler combustion chamber is provided by fuel oil burners (no.6). This
design is made to burn the low calorie lignite in bulk quantities. In
these boilers you cannot fire natural gas in lieu of fuel oil (no.6).
Currently we have reached an overall 65-GWe installed capacity.
However, this figure is misleading seeing that it includes thermal
power plants that are no longer in operation. For example, Afsin-A,

with a 4x340 MWe capacity, is in operation but with one unit only, and
this unit only has a 70% availability. Its other three units do not work.
The Afsin-B plant has the same four-unit capacity, but here only twounits are running, the other two-units are defective, they do not work.
Their repair has not been completed for the last 2-years. Tunbilek 12-3 does not work. Soma-A does not work. The Hopa plant with a
2x25 MW capacity also does not work.
The Kemerky-Yeniky thermal power plants have 50% availabilities,
meaning that they are operating at half of their total capacities.
Nonetheless, we incorporate all of these inoperative unit capacities in
our total installed capacity figures. This is not correct. We are fooling
ourselves. Our thermal power plants have completed their normal
lifetimes. They have low efficiencies and low availabilities. They are
unable to run uninterrupted. Serious rehabilitation programs should
be enforced.
In fact, more precisely, it would be better to remove all of these old
thermal power plants, demolish them, and sell their scraps in a short
amount of time. It is much more efficient, more profitable, and more
feasible to install new thermal power plants which are designed with
new technology, new environmental equipment, bigger dust filters,
better flue gas desulphurization, and bigger ash dams.
We know that it is difficult to find financing after a privatization
auction. Project finance is always difficult. Investors face project

financing problems prior to taking full ownership of an energy

investment.
Since the plants are sold with full ownership, there are other
investment options to choose from. In the extreme case, at Kemerky
seaside plant, you could build a Ro-Ro sea port, a marina-style
summertime vacation resort.
You could build a new thermal power plant for fire imported coal, or
imported LNG, or investigate if you could build a nuclear power plant.
Plant

transmission

lines

are

already

available.

High-voltage

switchgear facilities are ready. All you have to do is to apply for

investment incentives and licensing in accordance with Energy
Market Law No. 6446. These investment and production licenses are
mandatory.
The investor will need a period of 24-36 months for the receipt of the
necessary licenses. The investor can continue electricity generation
at the old plant to ensure cash inflow until obtaining these licenses.
We extend our heartfelt condolences to the families of the victims.
Our hearts go out to those families whose loved ones passed in the
Manisa Soma mine tragedy. Our thoughts continue to be with the
people of Soma County.
Ankara, 29 May, 2014

Cyber Wars in Modern Times

In year 1999, Middle East Technical University (METU) administration
in Ankara terminated 30 years of nuclear education. By year 1999,
METU graduates had already completed more than 2000 M.Sc. and
Ph.D. Theses on the subject, all piled up at the METU Library. METU
turned to more environmental and renewable energy education.
Subsequently METU administration publicly announced that it has no
intention to reopen the nuclear science engineering department.
Nuclear power plant design, engineering, manufacturing, installation
and operation are sub-disciplines of mechanical engineering.
Working principle of a nuclear power plant highly resembles to that of
a thermal power plant. Instead of a fossil fuel, nuclear fuel is used to
generate heat and electricity in a nuclear power plant. The core of
nuclear fuel aside, a nuclear power plant's design is identical to a
thermal power plant. Therefore we, mechanical engineers, can not
distance ourselves from nuclear technology.
***
It was made public by NewYork Times in June 2012 article that, by
joint work of the U.S. and Israeli computer scientists, a new secret
and special computer virus named "Stuxnet v.0.5" was produced in
2007. In year 2009, with the permission of the President of the United
States, the virus was infiltrated into Iran's Nuclear Power Plant control
center by using an USB memory stick. In Busheir, where Iranian

Natanz nuclear power plants are located, Siemens SCADA control

center computers were infected. Most of the nuclear centrifuges were
out of work. All computers in the power plant, plus all home PCs of
the employees went into the trash. It is reported that this event
delayed the plant start-up process of the construction more than 2
(two) years.
In the meantime, the virus was isolated by Iranian computer
engineers. Stuxnet's software architecture have been analyzed and
then with or without intentionally it has been released to the global
environment via internet for reprisal.
In early 2013, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security has
announced that, 2 (two) unnamed nuclear power plants in the USA
were plagued with new clone virus. Plants were said to have stayed
out of operation for almost 3 weeks due to virus attack into their
computer control centers.
We estimate that the cost of loss of electricity generation is to be
millions of U.S. Dollars at prevailing US electricity prices.
Stuxnet Virus v0.5 and the new clone virus produced from it (Flame)
have become a very dangerous sort of an industrial war weapon.
They can be considered as new weapons of industrial mass
destruction (WIMD) so to speak, if that is not an exaggeration. In the
near future, these viruses may not only stop the operation of a
nuclear control system, but may also be able to initiate involuntary
operation of a plant.

In case of a fatal accident, some functions may not be performed, or

performed without full control, such as opening or closing valves.
Security systems may not work,

may work improperly, or in an

unintended way. Power plants, water distribution systems are most

vulnerable systems for such cyber attacks.
In the end, new "Three-Mile Island," "Chernobyl" or "Fukushima"
men-made disasters may be recreated. What-if, such attacks are
directed at the Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant control room computers,
and how do we control the necessary cyber security precautions, to
repulse the cyber attack? Would we have a defense weakness/
vulnerability in the middle of nuclear calamity? It seems like as a
science-fiction disaster, but it's a cold/ merciless reality.
Normal market based bidding methods to acquire nuclear power plant
in Turkey could not be finalized in the past. In the end, political power
decided to pass a legislation in year 2010, by placing a direct order to
our Northern Neighbor for a nuclear power plant. It was a political
decision without public scrutiny, and without any market competition.
Northern Neighbor has directly received the contract for Akkuyu
nuclear power plant project. The first ball-park project budget was
declared as 20 billion U.S. Dollars with the completion date of 2020.
Revenue would be generated through electric sales to the local
market, at treasury guaranteed figures determined upfront. However,

most recently

project overall cost has been increased, and the

commercial operation date seems to be shifted forward.

In the contractor group, we know that there exists no Turkish
shareholder. Waste control and central computer controls and plant
safety are not clearly laid out for the public. We locals have no share,
no direct construction participation, and we do not have a control over
the technology, and its safety control mechanism. Moreover there is
almost no technology transfer.
We need nuclear power technology. However, we need to ask what
extent if the contracted nuclear capacity, technology, its location, and
the method is right? It is a political investment project, therefore it can
be financed under the terms of a political project financing. Political
financing has limitations. Political credit ends in time. Big investment
projects also need commercial loan. For political projects, it is
difficult- even impossible, to find commercial loans.
There are also questions on basic design of the project, for instance,
How do you design the cooling system of this power plant by using
the available very hot (+30 C) nearby sea water? Is there any
contradiction with thermodynamic principles?
How will you control the nuclear waste? How will the nuclear waste
be transported, moved, stored or dumped, and to where?

"May God bless and save us all", in case of any nuclear accident or
disaster, how shall we save the local people? Is there any
"emergency evacuation plan"? What is it? Where is it?
Every year we send our (100) selected young students for nuclear
education to our Northern Neighbor's nuclear educational facilities.
They will receive education/ training on nuclear physics and nuclear
power plant operation, but not as nuclear design engineers,
scientists, rather as trained operators of nuclear power plants. How
shall we assign responsibility of the operation of the new nuclear
power plant to our inexperienced new graduates?
Again with the same out of market direct contracting procedures in
the past, we previously have contracted industrial installations to our
Northern Neighbor.

Earlier, Orhaneli 210 MWe coal fired thermal

power plant in Bursa, Seydisehir Aluminum Plants, Iskenderun Iron

and Steel factory were built in our environment, but they did not work
properly, and could not be operated uninterrupted in the long term.
They were designed for the very cold climate of the Northern
Neighbor, hence they could not be adjusted to our hot environment .
They degraded fast in operation without having market compatibility
or continuity.
European Network and Information Security Agency (ENISA)
enforces security measures against such cyber attacks within the
union.

Agency is formed after deliberate cyber attacks to banking and

financing centers of new member state Estonia in year 2007.
In France, almost 80% of the electricity is generated from nuclear
plants. All the plants are of French design, built by French
engineering, manufacturing, scientific, cyber security capability. Their
entire engineering and design staff are French nationals, engineers,
scientists. Although their waste management, their plant control
system, and waste disposal systems have problems. They solve their
problems by themselves.
In our case, we are completely alien to the project. We are all
outsiders since ours is totally foreign to us.

We still believe that

METU could be the center of excellence for educating more scientists

and engineers, not only for nuclear technology but also on cyber
security.

Istanbul, 2013-04-26

The Tunchbilek Thermal Power Plant

Total installed capacity of Tunbilek-Ktahya Thermal Power plant is
430 MW. The annual availability of the power plant is around 35%.
The coal reserves exist for a new additional capacity of 2x150 MW
after privatization.
There are 5 units in TunBilek Thermal Power plant in Turkey.
1st and 2nd units were built by DurrWerke Germany in 1956 each
with 24 MWe steam turbines by AEG of Germany.
3rd unit was constructed by SGP of Austria in 1966 with 65 MWe
steam turbine by Elin of Austria.
The 4th and 5th units were delivered by Elektrim of Poland in years
1978-1979 each with 150 Mwe steam turbines by KWU of Germany.
In year 2002, Tunbilek Thermal power plant administration opened
an international tender to replace the old existing electrostatic
precipitations (E/P or dust collectors) of their 4th and 5th units each
with 150 MWe electricity output.
These 4th and 5th steam boilers were firing poor quality 2200 kcal/kg
LHV coal with approximately 40% ash and 20% moisture from nearby
local coal mines.

Earlier the E/P supplier company (Czech- Slovak?) received the order
but in the end they could not meet the required dust collection
requirements at stack exit less than 250 Milligrams per Nm3 dry
basis.
The first Contract was cancelled. It is later re-tendered but this time to
meet new stack dust emission requirement to be less than 100
Milligrams per Nm3 dry basis in accordance with new 2004
environmental regulations.
However since the first contract for 4th and 5th units was cancelled,
the administration applied to the local courts for compensation.
The first contract price is not valid since the delivery could not meet
the first requirement to have stack emission less than 250 Milligrams
per Nm3 dry basis.
The second contract will not be comparable with the first since it is in
compliance with new emission requirements which is set to be less
than 100 Milligrams per Nm3 dry basis. Please do note that in near
future that figure will be less than 30 milligrams per Nm3 dry basis in
accordance with new EU legislations. This situation is not the first,
and will not be the last in E/P replacement contracts in our power
plants.
We have a similar story in Catalan-B thermal power plant where the
original supplier has received the E/P replacement order without

competitive tendering and in the end they could not meet the required
emission limitations. Contract is cancelled. The case is in the local
court. We have Kangal and Yenikoy E/P replacement contracts
ongoing. We are not sure if they will be meeting the required
emission standards. We have new Yatagan and Soma E/P
replacement tenders soon.
TuncBilek thermal power plant is too old, and getting older every day.
Its pulverized coal firing technology is outdated for the available low
LHV local lignite coal. Its dust collectors are not sufficient to meet
new EU emission regulations. There is no Flue gas desulphurization.
The new ESP units will not help since there is no sufficient space to
install them. New rehab works will not work in the long term
operation. Moreover it is almost at the city center.
Please do note that first three units are not in operation. They are too
old. Last two units need ESP for operation. Since we do not install the
new ESP units in accordance with the new EU regulations, it is risky
to run them. In the end we have a plant with no electricity generation,
waiting idle for the ESP units to be installed. We have a downrated
capacity but not in operation. So the best thing to do is to close the
plant, sell the equipment at scrap value, dismantle the plant and
make the vacated plant space a green park for the public. Since we
have available local coal, we can install a new thermal power plant far
from city center preferably at a remote land, with capacity 4x150
MWe with new technology, CFB or even IGCC or CCS with full
compliance to environmental regulations provided that we create jobs

for local qualified workers, and more jobs for Turkish engineers and
local contractors.
It is now your Sunday Puzzle. What should be the decision for
appropriate compensation in Tuncbilek 4th and 5th units for the first
contract as of year 2010?
Prinkipo, August 2010

An Old Story about the Yataan, Yeniky, and Kemerky

Coal Power Plants
After the Cyprus Conflict and the following U.S. embargo, Turkey had
hard times in 1970s. The Turkish Treasury was in dire need of hard
currency to purchase vital imports. During that period, the fueloil nr. 6burning Ambarli thermal power plant near Istanbul was in full
operation with almost no stoppage until it experienced an emergency
breakdown. In an instance of such a breakdown, or brownout, the
Istanbul Yesilkoy International Airports control tower had no
electricity. On one occasion of brownout they could not help a Fokker
aircraft and it crashed into the Sea of Marmara, resulting in one of
biggest air disasters of Turkish aviation.
In order to meet the growing national need for electricity, the
government decided to sign a barter agreement with a European
country in order to build a 210 Mwe thermal power plant to fire locallyavailable poor-quality coal in the southwest corner of the country.
The thermal power plant would be constructed by states companies
from the European country in exchange for our traditional export
products--grapes, figs, nuts, tobacco, etc.
The government-to-government barter agreement was signed. The
design, supply, and construction started on the first three coal-firing

thermal power plants, each with an 210 Mwe electricity output

capacity in Yataan county of Mula province.
The foreign designers had no previous experience with our local coal.
They had an off-the-shelf design for their own coal of a similar
calorific value. The foreign designers were confident that their design
would also work with our coal since the calorific figures were so
similar. Chemically, however, the coal was very different. Turkey had
no engineering expertise to scrutinize such critical engineering
decisions. The Turkish market was also captive; Turkish authorities
had neither the power nor the expertise to reject what was offered.
Both parties had hoped that the basic design of the thermal power
plant would work in practice.
The foreign country had a state design institute for such basic
designs of thermal power plants. They specialized in the coal
available to them. They had no experience with Turkish coal.
Besides, the designers were academics with no experience in the
commercial market, or, importantly, market competition.
They didnt know how to gauge customer satisfaction. They were only
interested in promoting their individual academic works, theses, and
dissertations.
These specialists applied their generic basic design to the Turkish
project.

Domestic civil works and foundations were subcontracted to Turkish

companies. That initiative benefitted local labor. Coal conveyor belts
were also manufactured domestically, although they were not on
time. The conveyor belts did not meet the required specifications and
the resulting court disputes created delays. During the delay period
heavy-duty trucks were used to transport the coal.
The engineering, procuring, and construction (EPC) were carried out
entirely by the foreign companys workers. They were also in need of
employment. Even the simplest taskswelding, fitting, plumbing-everything was handled by their own workers.
In 1984, the first three units in Yataan were ready for startup
operations. Throughout the two-year probationary period the units
worked quite satisfactorily. Foreign operators received their final
acceptance certificate and then transferred the units to their local
counterparts.
The partnership model seemed very successful to both countries, so
the Turkish political authorities decided to replicate the arrangement
at the new 2x210 Mwe thermal power plant in the Yeniky county of
Mula province, next to new coal mine fields. While constructing the
foundations under contract, the foundations of three future units were
also cast nearby.
The EPC for the Yeniky power plant was completed in 1986, and the
two-year probationary period started thereafter. At that time, Yeniky

was a small, rural village trapped within a remote pine forest. A few
young residents were employed as unskilled laborers in the plant. No
one knew anything about the coal storage fields expanding into the
forest, nor about the ever-increasing ash dam, nor yet the acid rains
damage to the once-thick pine forest.
Then an incomprehensible decision was taken to build a new 3x210
Mwe thermal power plant not in Yeniky, but on the sea coast at
Kemerky in the fishing village of ren, approx 25 km south of
Yeniky. The three power plant foundations in Yeniky were
abandoned.
This location was almost at the end of the beautiful Gulf of Gkova on
the Mediterranean Sea coast, an area with unique tourism potential.
There was agriculture, fishing, architecture, and tourism.
The region around Kemerky had no coal. Coal had to be transported
over 25 km from Yeniky by belt conveyors or by trucks.
Moreover, Kemerky had no flat empty space for the new plant. A
high mountain had to be excavated to open space for the new plant
construction. Another high mountain was also removed for coal
storage space.
The new plant was designed to use nearby seawater for cooling
systems. However, in terms of efficiency, it is difficult to justify using
hotter than average seawater for cooling. Warm seawater is taken

and returned to the sea with a temperature high enough to damage

marine life. In today's environmental standards, seawater should not
be returned to keep medium more than two degrees celsius warmer.
It is not clear whether this condition was being met.
The Kemerky power plant was completed in 1993. All three plants
were in operation. People started to feel the environmental impact of
the political decision taken on their behalf. Non-governmental
organizations started to ask questions about the design, operation,
and environmental impact of the power plants constructed without
any environmental scrutiny.
Why were the three, ready foundations in Yeniky abandoned?
Why was the new plant built in coal-less Kemerky?
Why was an environmentally-unfriendly seawater cooling system
chosen?
Why were the dust filters chosen so small that they were usually out
of operation?
Why werent fuelgas desulphurization systems installed upfront?
Why did acid rain effect the nearby pine forest?
Why was so much air, water, land, and seawater pollution created?
The designers from the institute of thermal power plants had little to
no commercial market experience. They had no incentive to take
corrective action nor to modify or to upgrade their design works in
response to the complaints. Operational problems arised shortly.

In order to cut costs, the electrostatic precipitators (ESP) for flue-gas

dust collectors were designed too small. Most of the time they were
clogged and inoperable. When the ESPs were out of operation, all
the dust created was released to atmosphere freely, making the air
impossible to breath. European air emission norms were unknown at
that

time.

Electricity

generation

was

more

important

that

environmental concerns and public health. Lung-related instances of

cancer and deaths experienced a high jump in nearby towns. Local
officials were helpless.
There was only one unique power plant design, that was the 210
Mwe unit using local coal. It was soon understood that the basic
design of the power plant was not suitable for the locally-available
coal. The design was based on some other coal with different
chemical characteristics--different volatiles, sulphur, carbon, etc. Our
coal contains too much calcium and incombustible materials, which
leads to soot accumulation. Our coal had a lower melting point. Our
coal had a high tendency to stick together, creating soot on the watertube walls in the combustion chamber. That meant we needed more
soot-blowers to clean the walls during operation. On the other hand,
there werent enough soot-blowers on the water-tube inner walls of
the combustion chamber. They were too few and of the cheapest
quality. They were supposed to be operated every shift. They broke
down shortly and could not be replaced with new ones.
The power output of the thermal power plant units deteriorated
gradually, the first months output was 210 Mwe, the next month 200,

next 190, then 180. The plant came to a complete stop when output
reached 160 Mwe. Subcontractors were then hired to clean the inner
surfaces of the combustion chamber over two to three weeks. Rather
than installing more soot-blowers like all other power plants and
operating regularly, more cheaply, and more efficiently, this periodic
cleaning procedure became routine.
The local coal contained lots of incombustible materials which should
have been separated prior to sending the coal into the crushing mills.
Separation by hand was even a possibility. The quality of the coal
should have been improved by enriching it through various
mechanical methods and with the water-floating screening system.
None of these procedures were employed. After being excavated, the
coal was fed into the coal-crushing mills without being processed.
That placed a heavy burden on the coal crushers. Their crushing
plates and mills were eroded and ground down in short order.
The result was that heavy fly ash was fed into the atmosphere, and
more and more bottom ash and slag were fed into the ash dams. The
ash dams in turn were filled more quickly and became unable to hold
all of the ash.
The ash dams expanded into the nearby forest without any measures
to protect the environment. New ash dams had to be built.
The foreign design engineers had made mistakes in the first plant in
Yataan, surprisingly, they did not correct these design mistakes in
the second plant in Yeniky. Moreover, they repeated the same,

wrong design details in the third plant in Kemerky. They had not
expanded compensation in the roof water-wall tubes. The water-walls
got hot and expanded but there was no compensation capability. In
the end, the roof tube walls were sinusoidal rather than flat.
We are talking about a period 20-30 years ago. We had no
internationally-reputable Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA)
evaluation reports, no environmental concerns, no norms, no
standards. Moreover, we had a barter agreement wherein the buyer
had no right to refuse the plant but accept whatever was supplied.
The power plants deteriorated in a short period of time. New
rehabilitation programs were introduced to replace the small ESP's
with bigger ones. New flue-gas desulphurization (FGD) systems were
purchased. New ash dams were built. Ceiling expansion details were
installed for compensation. New instruments and control systems
were

installed

to

better

monitor

operations.

With

the

new

rehabilitation programs, plants were upgraded to be brought into line

with new, modern, environmentally-friendly designs.
Turkish privatization policies were introduced in early 2000. The first
"transfer of operation rights" tender--which was a sort of "leasing for
long-term operation"--was a failure. The administration preferred to
cancel the tender. The winning group then applied to an arbitration
court and they received a considerable compensation figure in
exchange for their tender expenditure. A new privatization scheme
will be initiated in near future.

We still have unanswered questions. In Yeniky, there were three

more power plant foundations ready for new investment, why were
they abandoned? Why was more money spent for new investments in
Kemerky where coal had to be transported from the Yeniky coal
fields 25 km away?
Should we now review and evaluate the rumors we come to hear in
the casual dinner gatherings of old thermal power plant retiress?
Plant authorities always refute those rumors; they say they are not
true, they explain that the decision to invest in Kemerky was correct
for many reasons; one being that in Yeniky there wasn't sufficient
underground freshwater for three cooling systems. However, the easy
solution is to build air-cooled systems with cooling towers.
The foreign workers, contractors from a European country with a
harsh, cold climate might have been more inclined to work at a
seaside paradise over a five to six year construction period. Site
personnel always dream about spending a site construction period at
a warm sunny seaside.
Coal was not available at the Kemerky beach.
Three foundations were ready at Yenikoy.
Was the decision taken because senior officials were looking for land
on the seaside to build their summer houses or a holiday resort?
Were the ren villagers so ignorant of such requests?

Were they uninterested in selling their land to people who wanted to

develop it?
Was it because of this ignorance that these regions were
expropriated afterwards to build a thermal power plant?
What possible justification could there be, at a time when the Turkish
people were in such dire need of money, for the authorities to spend
extraordinary additional costs to move the plant location for new
investment in a warm paradise with fantastic tourism opportunities,
against all economic considerations?
Were the locals in agreement about building a thermal power plant in
ren's Kemerky region?
Were those summer houses built?
In today's market conditions, such projects posing environmental
hazards, with uneconomical distances to coal fields, untested coal
facilities, and on sites with high tourism potential cannot obtain
environmental impact assessment evaluations. They can not get
investment license approval. These investments can not get
commercial financing.
This is an old story. The plants have completed their life cycle. They
are undergoing expensive rehabilitation and upgrades to comply with
current environmental regulations. Those foreign companies were
sold to new international owners, they were renamed. The engineers
who worked on these projects, the officials, politicians, and decisionmakers involved, they've all since retired.

Nowadays, sellers no longer have absolute control over power plants'

basic designs. Incombustible materials are always separated, the
coal is cleaned and enriched in calorific value before going into the
steam boiler's combustion chamber.
Basic design of any thermal power plant for any coal is clear to
choose now. Design software is available to anyone interested. A
smart buyer can easily check the design of the required steam boiler
with the available software. Sellers can not sell products if they
cannot comply with new market expectations.
Information

about

the

geometric

dimensions,

purchasing

specifications, and quantities of steam boilers, tubes, pumps, fans,

safety valves, ESPs, FGDs, instruments and controls, soot-blowers,
coal crushing mills, etc. are all readily available. The budget market
prices of each particular item can be determined by running software.
No one is blindfolded during the purchasing process. Project
management is now carried out by both parties separately and in
parallel with each other.
It is important to know this history, to understand it in order not to
repeat it. Thermal power plants need to be designed, manufactured,
installed, and operated in accordance with international norms, rules,
and regulations. Thermal power plants cannot be built near forests,
nor in agricultural regions, never on architectural sites, and never on
touristic lands.

Last Note.
Yataan plant and nearby coal fields is sold to Elsan Energy- Bereket
Holding in year 2014 for 1,091 billion US Dollars. Yeniky- Kemerky
plant, port and coal fields are sold to ta Energy for 2,671 billion
US Dollars in the same year.
This

article

is

first

released

http://www.turkishweekly.net/
Ankara, 2013-08-12

in

the

following

web

site,

Konya Karapnar Coal Fields Ready for Thermal Power

Plant Investment
The Turkish Mineral Research & Exploration Institute (MTA) publicly
announced in 2007 that a new important lignite coal field was
discovered in the Karapinar district of Konya Province in inner
Anatolia.
The coal is very similar to the Afsin-Elbistan reserves. The Konya
Karapinar coal is technically challenging in content with a low calorific
heating value (LHV) at about an average of 1,374(within a range of
1,300- 1,500) kcal per kg.Elementary analysis finds it contains
approximately 46-49% moisture, 19-22% ash, and 2-3.5% in sulfur
content.
Large domestic coal reserves are also waiting to be exploited in the
vast nearby AfsinElbistan basin, and also in Adana Tufanbeyli and
Konya Ilgin. We can have both sustainable and environmentallyfriendly electricity generation with clean coal technologies and also
gain a positive social impact on our economy.
These expectations are not so easy with today's market logic. A
master plan for regional development must be prepared for the
region.

The master plan should cover Konya Karapnar, Elbistan, Adana

Tufanbeyli, and even the Sivas Kangal lignite coal mines.
The Karapnar lignite coal mine was discovered a few years ago. We
were told by local media sources that there are a number of seriously
interested investors already mobilized to exploit the new coal
resources.
The coal mine is in a remote area in Konya county, scarcely
populated, with limited agricultural activity and limited water supply
capability nearby. Air cooled sytems could be employed for the plant
cooling systems.
For investment options, we can evaluate leasing, public investment,
tendering, public-private partnership (PPP), build-operate (BO) and
build-operate-transfer (BOT) models.
PPP seems appropriate provided that we integrate it into a major
master plan. We have 1.6 billion metric tons of proven lignite coal
reserves in the field with vast economic value to be exploited with
mostly open pit mining technologies at 6.54 m3/ton overburden ratio
to enable the building of a 6000 MWe thermal power plant in the end,
within thirty years of a proven mine depletion period.
A ballpark estimate is a US$ 1.70-2.00 cost per cubic meter of coal,
covering a total of US$ 6.50-7.00 for coal stripping the overburden
plus other expenses that may amount to a total of US$ 9.00 per ton of
coal (EUAS) or approximately US $1.65 per MMBTU, leading to a

final electricity generation cost of approximately 7.0 UScents per

kWh.
The estimated maximum total of US$2 billion in investments for each
1400 MWe TPP (4x350 MWe) group designed to use the latest clean
coal technology may pay off in approximately less than eight to ten
years with an overall 33% plant efficiency, with 6500 hours of total
operation per year.
That is electricity generation from your own resources. No need for
imports. There is no negative impact on the current account deficit
(CAD).
In this project, a public-private partnership (PPP) model could be
developed, since the public sector can handle certain major problems
such as water supply, river bed changes, relocation of local people,
and project guarantees.
The high moisture content in available coal makes circulating
fluidized bed (CFB) technology very difficult to implement. CFB can
not reach more than 400 MWe in operation at this time for similar coal
fuel firing. New clean coal technologies can be applied with certain
care.
Hence carbon capture and storage (CCS), integrated gasification
combined cycle (IGCC), oxy-firing, and underground gasification
technologies should be carefully investigated.

The treasury had previously received guaranteed government-togovernment loans. Today such loans are no longer applicable.
Today's most popular financing option is the non-recourse financing
application. In this model, a project company is formed separate from
investors; it is established by calculating the life of the project and the
costs of credit given to the project company. So that project cost does
not affect the sponsors' own budgets.
There are many local engineering companies which can use the
latest available clean coal technologies.
There are also reputable local universities which are using academic
versions of thermal power plant software within an increment of its
commercial application, with one important precondition that they
mention the name of the software in their academic articles. We have
many new M.Sc. and Ph.D. dissertations which used the academic
thermal power plant design software.
Karapnar lignite could be enriched with open-air drying or moisture
capture prior to pulverized firing. That could be done via drying or by
electro static precipitator (ESP) applications, or other means.
CFB is possible but we also need enrichment up to 2000 kcal/kg LHV,
or 3000 BTU/lb HHV. Available references elsewhere are not
compatible with the coal.

Similarly, IGCC needs further academic investigations prior to any

commercial applications. Oxy-fuel is theoretically possible but we do
not have any reliable practical research nor any refererence in proven
operation.
Please do note that those foreign off-the-shelf designs are obsolete,
they do not work. East Asian supplies are worse. A cheap East Asian
workforce is not available anymore due to changes in the local
legislation to promote more local employment.
Local engineers are to concentrate on their own designs of steam
generators specially created for their own local lignite.
Do not rely on foreign financing, which will advise their obsolete
lignite firing technologies. They did not work in the past; hence they
will not work in future.
In Karapnar, clean coal technologies can create a great opportunity
for local engineers as well as all interested local parties to enable
them to learn from past mistakes, in order to investigate possible and
applicable technologies,the implementation of applicable nonrecourse financing schemes, and assess the available intellectual
capability of the local human resources.
Local coal is our future for our energy security. Therefore, we need to
allocate more academic and commercial funds in order to conduct

more research on the design and development of local fuel resources

that will enable better firing of available local coal in thermal power
plants of our own design.

Lessons learnt in legal dispute for blog writing

Your writer has drafted a number of recommendations in writing an
article on critical public problems while avoiding any legal claim, any
lawsuit by any third party. You write an article on environment, global
warming, air- water- soil pollution, then you receive a court order to
defend yourself in a court case opened by an energy generation
company. They accuse that you harm their reputation, although they
really pollute nearby air- water- soil- sea while generating electricity.
This is warning for all others.
Local internet law (Nr.5651) asks that you should erase the disputed
article from your web page within 48- hours. If you do, then there is
no more liability. But it is not the case in reality. Since the article is
released in the web site worldwide, the company can sue you
anywhere, anytime. You live and register in one city, hence they open
the court case in some other city, or even at a remote place. You
should be in the court personally, physically. Otherwise you get prison
terms. Cost of opening 100K TL compensation is almost >2200 TL,
whereby you pay at least 2000 TL plus travelling expenses for your
defense attorney.
This is abusing of poor writer by rich companies. Moreover during the
court proceedings, personal career expectations of the public
authorities seem more important than the fair decision. So an
intermediate solution is created in the end.

The European Court of Human Rights, claims in multiple times that

Turkey had violated Article 10 of the European Convention on Human
Rights, which guarantees everyone the right to freedom of
expression. There are verdicts against application of Law.Nr.5651. In
local court cases, in all legal disputes, nobody wins, except lawyers.
Lawyers get paid, even in loss.
These below items are the outcome of a series of court experiences
of your writer in Istanbul District Court House during 2010-2014 years
on a real case.
Never give name/ never specify any commercial company in
your article
Write in general, never target any group/ commercial identity,
Explain common benefits of the community, environment, social
well being
if accused, answer the questions only, never give any extra
information,
Never ask assistance from any pressure group,
Pressure groups make everything complicated,

no need for

their assistance,
Be specific in your writing, note the general concerns,
Have an attorney at all times, legal procedures are too complicated, you can not handle all alone, you can not understand
code words between lawyer and judge,
Ask your attorney to write your defense in strict control of yourself,

 Appear at court by yourself physically at all times if invited to

court session, with or w/o your attorney,
Dress strict business in black, plain/ conservative/ parliamentarian at all times in court sessions, men shave clean,
Appear at court early, time schedule can change, you can miss
the session,
if you receive any displeasure for any of your blog/web article
from any reader, delete that article immediately,
Local internet law nr.5651 asks you to delete your disputed
article within 2-days,
Do not wait 2-days, delete that article immediately,
if you receive any question during court session, say "let us
evaluate and respond in written later",
Trust justice and admit verbally, you must believe in justice at
all times,
Tell that your article is out of date, not current any more, usually
is,
Legislations change, laws change, rules / regulations change,
so tell them,
Do not be intimidated by the other party, they are not better
than yourself,
You know subject better than them at all times, since subject is
yours originally,
Learn legal procedures and control your defense submissions,
Go to rest room and be comfortable before the court session,

 Be flexible for last minute time table changes at court schedules,

Be polite to the other party, but never communicate with them,
Stick to your original defense at all court sessions,
Do not hire an attorney who has no email address, who is busy,
who is rich.
Age/ experience is not an advantage in information age nor in
cyber world,
Attorney at old age may not understand what you are accused
for,
Put off your cell phone during court session,
Try to postpone the court sessions at all times,
In the end you may reach to time limitations,
Your documents should be free from typos, any errors at all
times,
Avoid the notion that justice is for rich people to repress poor,
Do note that there is no rush in justice, court sessions may take
years,
Play within normal legal rules, never tolerate exceptions.
Try to get fair settlement, avoid revenge, avoid any further
compensation.
If settlement is offered, accept it. There is no point to prolong
the case.
There is a new harsh internet law to block, and censor all internet
communication. However your writer feels that its application is not

possible in the long run due to nature of cyber world. All censor
attempts are almost futile since there is always a cyber solution for
any attempt to stop and block free speech of people.
Ankara, February 2014

The Real Crazy Project: Afin Elbistan

The most important electric power generation projects are in "Afsin
Elbistan" region where the largest lignite mines are located in Turkey;
including almost half of the entire local proven reserves. The existing
power plants (Groups A and B) are based on pulverized coal firing
technology which need relatively higher calorific value plus less moisture. Indirect type Pulverized coal firing technique can be successful
only if you lower the moisture content and hence with higher the calorific value.
Available coal has a challenging content with very poor Low calorific
value at about average 1150 kcal per kg, and approximately with 55%
moisture, 20% ash, 1.5-4% sulphur content.
Thermal Power plant (A) has no flue gas desulphurization. It was built
in early 1980s, and its firing technique was based on indirect firing of
pulverized coal. Power plant (A) electrostatic precipitators were designed at low capacity flue-gas exit dust collecting. One other set of
E/Ps were loaded with 30% of incoming pulverized coal for drying prior to final firing in the boiler combustion chamber. Hence they cannot
carry the extended load and they are out of service most of the time.
In the indirect coal firing technique, you dry the incoming coal/ lignite
first in the coal mills with hot flue gas and then you send 30% of that
pulverized wet coal into a second set of electrostatic precipitators (vapor/brueden filters at +62m boiler elevation ) for further drying with
outgoing hot flue gas.

This indirect firing was borrowed from cement process; it might be

called technology plagiarism, and its application can not be proven its
usefulness after 20 years of interrupted operation. Steam Boiler operation was almost in mess, non-stop operation was not possible for 4
steam boiler units altogether. When they call that indirect coal firing
as the great western technology, one cannot conceal smile.
E/Ps are out of service most of the time, and the 2 of total 4 stacks in
operation pour huge fly ash into atmosphere. If E/Ps are not working
properly in a thermal power plant, and furthermore if they have no
flue gas desulphurization on the stacks, then it is our sincere feeling
that those power plants have to be stopped for operation since their
harm to nearby environment is greater that the expected gain in electricity generation to the national grid.
Thermal Power plant Unit-B is brand new, clean, and better, fully
equipped with sufficient capacity flue gas desulphurization systems,
with high capacity flue gas dust collecting electrostatic precipitators.
There is almost no apparent dust on the existing stacks.
Last year (2010) Turkey could not use enough local coal resources.
46 percent of electricity generation was spent for natural gas. Large
domestic coal reserves are waiting for exploitation in vast Afsin Elbistan basin. We can have sustainable, environmentally friendly and
also gain positive social impact on our economy.
However, it is not so easy with today's market logic. A Master Plan for
the regional development must be prepared for Elbistan region. That

Master Plan should cover a region of Sivas Kangal, Elbistan, Adana

Tufanbeyli, even Konya Karapnar coal mines. Immediate privatization of new power plants following the construction is not correct.
Afin Elbistan B Power Plant Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA)
Report was approved with one important condition. That condition
was the construction of new Flue Gas De-sulphurisation (FGD) installation for A-unit until 2012. This period will end in 2012 and hence
will be extended until 2017 since FGD for A-unit has not been yet
constructed.
Afin Elbistans regional air quality limit is another problem. New
power plants can not be tolerated with air quality limits since they create adverse effects to existing situation. New EIA Preliminary studies
are already initiated for the new additional thermal power plants to be
constructed in future.
In the pre-feasibility study / and EIA include river bed changes/ diversion, and the new water dams for cooling systems. Dry-cooling systems are recommended for cooling towers to minimize the water consumption, which is very important for nearby municipality water
needs.
It is estimated that approximately 1 billion US Dollar equivalent
budget is necessary for the rehabilitation of existing A-unit. This
spending is no longer necessary. Thermal Power plant A-unit is to be
closed completely, cease operation. It should be sold at scrap value.
Meanwhile its legal operational rights status of past privatization

should be settled in courts.

For construction of C-E units, necessary infrastructure services are to
be made by the public sources. Two towns are to be relocated. Riverbed should be changed; water dams are to be constructed, high
voltage transmission lines are to be installed.
For investment options, we can evaluate leasing, public investment,
tendering, public-private partnership (PPP), Build-Operate (BO) and
Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) models. PPP seems most appropriate
provided that we integrate into major Master Plan.
We have 450 million tons crude oil equivalent of coal in the field with
vast economic value. That is with today's currency a value of U.S. $
400

billion .

We can estimate U.S. $ 1.7 for a cubic meter of coal, covering a total
of U.S. $ 4.25 for coal stripping/overburden plus other expenses that
can be done about total of 6- 7.8 U.S. $ per ton coal (EUAS) or approximately 1.315-15.00 U.S. $ per MMBTU , leading to a final cost of
approx. 6.0 -7.0 U.S.cent per kWh.
So ball-park total US $ 2 billion investment (for each 1400 MWe TPP
unit) may be paying off in approximately 8-10 years (33% plant efficiecy, 6500 hours operation per year).
That is electricity generation from your own resources. No need for
imports.
A tender for the rehabilitation of thermal power A could not be final-

ized. World Bank loan was canceled. Leasing auctions did/will not
succeed.
Public-Private Partnership (PPP) model could be developed, since
public can handle certain major problems, such as river bed changes,
relocation of local people, project guarantees.
High moisture content in available coal in Elbistan makes circulating
fluidized bed (CFB) technology very difficult to implement. New clean
coal technologies can be applied. Hence CCS, IGCC, oxy-firing, underground gasification technologies can be investigated.
On the other hand it is not possible to install the necessary reactors in
one piece in the field so gasification technology is very difficult to install over 300 MW capacity. The Treasury had previously received
guaranteed loans. Today it is no longer applicable. Today's most
popular financing is non-recourse financing application. In this model,
a project company is formed separate from investors; it is established
by calculating the life of the project and the costs of credit given to the
project company. So that project cost does not affect the sponsors'
own budgets.
There are many local engineering companies who use the latest
available technology. There are also reputable local universities who
are using academic version of thermal power plants software within
an increment of the commercial application with one important precondition that they should mention the name of the software in their
academic articles. We have many new MSc and PhD dissertations

which used the academic thermal power plant design softwares.

AfinElbistan lignite has to be enriched by moisture capture prior to

pulverized firing. That could be via drying or ESP applications, or any
other means. CFB is possible but we also need enrichment up to
2000 kcal/kg LHV, or 3000 BTU/lb HHV. Available references elsewhere are not compatible with Elbistan coal.
IGCC needs further academic investigations prior to any commercial
applications. Oxy-fuel is theoretically possible but we do not have
any reliable practical research.
From our past experience, those off-the-shelf foreign designs are obsolete, they do not work. Locals are to concentrate themselves into
their own design of their own local lignite. Do not rely on foreign financing which will advise their obsolete lignite firing technologies. They
did not work in the past; hence they will not work in future.
In Elbistan, Clean Coal Technologies can create a great opportunity
for all interested local parties to enable them to learn from past mistakes, to investigate the possible/ applicable technologies plus implementation of applicable non-recourse financing schemes, to investigate and assess the available intellectual capability of the local human resources.
AfsinElbistan is our future for our energy security; therefore we need
to allocate more academic funds in order to have more research on

local fuel supply that will enable to fire the available coal best in our
own design thermal power plants. It is a real Crazy Project.
Ankara, June 2011

Afin Elbistan,
A Critical Look to The Turkish Energy Sector
There is an old saying, attributed variously to the Chinese, which
goes,
"Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me."
The most important electric power generation projects are in "Afsin
Elbistan" region where the largest lignite mines are located in Turkey;
including almost half of the proven reserves.
It has a challenging content with very poor Low calorific value at
about average 1150 cal per kg, and 55% moisture, 20% ash, 1.5-4%
sulphur.
Turkish Electricity Generation Public Company has already built two
groups of four units, each group with 4X340 (1360) MWe electricity
generating output capacity.
These are tendered internationally. German/ USA/ Japan companies
have received the contracts based on their past similar experiences
in their home countries or elsewhere.
The first group A-plant has been designed to generate 1400 MWe
and never reached that figure. According to World Bank feasibilities,

its average generation is around 500 MWe at nominal continuous

rate.
Because its pulverised coal firing/ burning system is not suitable/
appropriate for Afsin Elbistan lignite. It is not correct.
This lignite is not appropriate to fire with pulverized coal firing
technique. It has high moisture content. You may fire other lignites in
your home country but our lignite is not that lignite.
In order to fire our lignite, we need to make enrichment of the calorific
value, we must clean, screen, make necessary enrichments- we must
reduce its moisture content in its overall analysis.
Next to the first group we tendered the second group named B-group
with the same lignite firing technology. Construction of B-group is
completed. It passed the temporary acceptance tests, but the
contractors cannot complete the final tests since coal feeding system
is not completed. So we have a new thermal power plant without coal
feeding system.
Foreign contractors in B-group are more than pleased. They
completed their work. They received most of their money. Plant is
there to stay. But there is no coal to operate the power plant in full
load. There will be a new tender to finalize the new coal feeding
system. That new tender will take at least 3-4 years to complete. 2year trial period is almost complete.

It is the same as you build your Olympic Stadium in Istanbul, but you
do not construct the roads to reach there. It is almost the same
Even you complete the coal feeding system, it is still doubtful if the
new plant can be run at full load. Why???
Because we get our lignite as received from the coal mine without
screening/ without cleaning from non- combustible materials. We get
them as received without any purification treatment, and send them
into the steam boilers as is
There is no pre screening, nor any enhancement
It

is

necessary

to

make

cleaning,

screening,

purification,

enhancement.
In our technical literature, we call this process "Selective mining"
Go to "Google" and make the search you will find many serious
technical documentation how to make it
Since our local companies have not enough past references, nor
finance capabilities, nor any courage to design, construct the power
plants, so foreign companies rushed to join in competition with job
hunger.

So the biggest natural gas exporting country Russia, decided to

penetrate our local energy projects
The budget figures are around 5 billion USD equivalent for these two
different group each with 1400 MWe electricity generating output
capacity. Projects also cover coal mine rehabilitation and their
operation. Not only Russian companies but also German, Japan, UK
companies are in competition. There are almost 30 different
international groups to compete for Group-C & as well as D.
Turkish Electricity Generation Public Company (EUAS) announced
that the tender would have been finalized on 31 July 2007. On that
day, although there were more than 30 interested parties who
purchased the tender documents, nobody had appetite to quote.
Each of Thermal Power Plant units is required not less than 1200
MWe. All four generation power plant groups each with approximately
1400 MWe capacity will generate overall 30 billion kWh. Within
economic life time of 30 years, they will consume approximately 400
million tons of local coal. For construction of last two new groups, it is
presumed that 15,000 construction workers will be employed during
construction period of 5-7 years, and after completion 8,500 operating
personnel will be needed for running the plants.
World Bank has allocated 280 million Euros fund to make the
necessary rehabilitation of the existing group-A. Turkey will add 100
million Euros to the project from her own resources. The group-A is
operated with 2-units out of total 4. After rehabilitation, all 4 units will

be operated at full load. Could it be possible with pulverized coal

firing system? Nobody knows. For the rehabilitation tender, Japanese
Hitachi and Itochu, Russian JSP with local Mineks, German Alstom
Power and Babcock Borsig, Italian Ansaldo, local Aksa Enerji A..
and many others purchased the tender documents to participate.

In the end we understand that local Teknotes with a German group

(Babcock & Borsig) and Gama with (Hitachi) parties are shortlisted.
Technical evaluations are continued. Final financial proposals are not
disclosed yet.
The interested parties for Group-C are
Limak, E-ON (Germany), Gri, alk-NTF, Alsim Alarko, Park Teknik,
Marubeni Europower (UK), zdou, Gama, Enka, International
Power (UK), Unit International (Belgium), Mitsubishi Corporation
(Japan), Demir Export (Ko Holding), Energie Baden (Germany),
Mitsui Co. (Japan), Zorlu, Enerjisa (SABANCI), Haba, Teknotes,
Karkey, zta, IC ta, Akenerji, Nurol, JSC Coal Company
(Russian), Tekfen, zaltn naat.
Those companies who purchased the tender documentation to
participate to group-D plant are;
Limak, E-ON, Gri, alk-NTF, Alsim Alarko, Park Teknik, zdou
naat,

Gama,

Unit

International,

Mitsubishi,

Demir

Export(KoHolding),

Energie

Baden,

Mitsui,

Zorlu,

Enerjisa(SABANCI), Teknotes, Karkey, zta naat, Akenerji, JSC

Coal Company, Tekfen, Suez-Tractebel (Belgium), zaltn naat.
It is not sufficient to open an international tender to construct the
power plants. We need to scientific research to find which firing
technology is appropriate for our specific lignite. It has low calorific
value (1150 kcal/kg LHV) high moisture content at about 55% of
overall elementary analysis

There are multiple research documentations created by our own

scientists. These are to be further developed and put into practice.

We need to know how to make enrichment of the available lignite

Which firing technology is appropriate for Afsin Elbistan lignite?

The existing power plants are based on pulverized coal firing
technology which need relatively higher calorific value plus less
moisture. First group (A) is unsatisfactory. Second is doubtful, not
delivered yet.
Pulverized coal firing technique can be successful only if you lower
the moisture content and hence higher the calorific value.
The 3rd (Group-C) and the 4th (D) groups (each with 340 MWe)

maybe designed to CFB (Circulating Fluid bed) although there are

very few similar capacity references in the world, and therefore we
have the risk of first try for that capacity plus for that lignite
composition.
IGCC (Integrated Gasification combined cycle) firing technology may
be employed. Here in this technology you build a sort of refinery to
generate "Synthetic gas" from poor lignite then you fire this synthetic
gas in the combined cycle power plants similar to natural firing.
Seems to be logical but we doubt if it is applicable for our lignite.
It was successful in North Dakota as built by General Electric and
funded by USA Department of Energy. Here in our country who will
decide to move on and who will finance??
These researches are prepared and presented to decision-makers of
Ministries. These are to be shared by the public in order to reach
"Common Wisdom" and to be directed accordingly for the best
interest of our country.
Those foreign companies who guaranteed the best performance were
unsuccessful in group-A power plant
In group-B power plant, it is the same unsuccessful firing technology
and therefore we have doubts for success
Existing Afsin- Elbistan coal mines are to be enriched at coal site prior

to feeding into the steam boilers, it has to be cleaned, screed to free

from unburned combustibles, its moisture level has to be reduced at
least 25% by prior drying. These are easy to make,
With foreign technology we can reach to nowhere. Each country
designs and develops her own indigenous coal firing technology by
herself, and they have to design their own plants accordingly. This
activity is too important not to be left to foreign companies
If we do not show our local engineering expertise, our market will
soon be dominated by these East world- China- India- Korea, and
local companies will be doing only the simple hardwork. All we need
is courage, at least within our own environment. We should start to
construct our own thermal power plants by ourselves.
Foreign companies cannot design, construct power plants to fire our
special lignite. Only Turkish engineers can do it, since we live all our
life with these local fuel. Our local private companies are to decide if
they will continue to have simple works all the time, and vanish, or
make drastic change and start doing new investments on engineering
talent by supplying the engineering staff with appropriate software
and hardware, plus necessary technical licensing, to enable their
companies work as turnkey EPC contractor as leading company.
That is the most important decision to take at this time.
We should also appreciate that power generation technology is a very
dear, very precious, very expensive issue. It is NOT free of charge,

and sometimes it is not even possible to get only with bare money as
in the case of your own independent effective/ sound / efficient power
generation. You can only get it through your own hardwork by
employing your young talents with their latest scientific and
intellectual capability.
In base monetary terms for a lignite fired CFB power plant within
range of 150 to 350 MWe, you should pay at least 1000 to 1500 USD
per unit kW power generation if you purchase the plant direct from
abroad plus together with unfavorable concessions on your foreign
policies.
If you do not wish to give any concession in your own foreign policy,
then you should depend on your own talent at a lower and
independent cost. So we would strongly advise our decision makers
in the respective ministries to put more incentive for the research
activities in the local Universities, more funds for M.Sc and Ph.D
works, more software and hardware for our scientists, more money
for them to spend at site for more research. Turkish Scientific
Research Institute TUBITAK must open a permanent research center
at Afsin Elbistan coal site to support scientific works.
Those initiatives/ and further incentives will put more value added
high tech into our indigenous lignite development in a sound, costeffective and logical way. In the long run we can also export our local
technology in order to construct more thermal power plants in other
countries through our contractors. You can get it through your own

hardwork by employing your young talents with their latest scientific

and intellectual capability on a long tedious journey with blood, sweet
and tears. It is also a matter of survival of the fittest.
Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me, fool me
thrice.....
Ankara, August 2007

A Personal Evaluation of Nuclear Energy in Turkey,

Those of the 1968 generation will recall that there was a Nuclear''
division in the METU Mechanical Engineering Department along with
Heat and Mechanics. There were many graduates with BSc, MSc,
and even PhD degrees from the Nuclear division, all of whom were
confident that they could design, build, and operate nuclear power
plants.
There were also students from other Middle East Countries, Pakistan,
even several from Iran, studying together with their Turkish
colleagues. The Iranians had a thick Azeri Turkish accent at the
beginning, which was lost in time, replacing it with smooth daily
Turkish, making them no different than our own local nationals. When
they graduated, they returned to their countries, and worked on their
careers.
In Turkey, several METU graduates started working at the Turkish
Electricity Authority, Nuclear Energy Department, but throughout the
years, Turkey could not keep pace with the requirements of the
nuclear age. No serious development could be established in Turkish
Nuclear energy plans except serious corruption news in Turkish
Nuclear tenders. Then, the IMF asked the government to stop work
on nuclear energy tenders since that activity put high financial risk on
the Turkish Treasury. Working in nuclear energy planning ceased in
the early 2000s.

The Nuclear Energy Division of the Turkish Electricity Authority, which

was created in early 1960s, was also closed and its mostly METU
graduate engineers were either transferred to other departments or
left the establishment. Almost 40 years has passed since 1968, which
were exciting for METU graduates. What do you think those METU
ME Nuclear graduates have been doing since 1968??
Some of the Turkish graduates formed their own private companies in
the energy sector. Most were very successful in their own private
businesses. They constructed high capacity coal mine transfer
systems in thermal power plants, some completed mechanical
installation works in thermal power plants, others completed site
installations abroad, especially in the Middle East Countries as well
as in the Central Asian countries.
Some formed their own plants in order to make fabrication of steel
structures for industrial installations, some worked in public
enterprises, in the Ministries. They were promoted to high, prestigious
public posts and private positions; and many of them went abroad to
earn their livelihoods and pursue their own careers. Some of them
worked in nuclear power plants in those foreign lands and occupied
high-level positions in the USA, Canada, Switzerland nuclear power
industries.
Some of the Iranian national METU graduates worked on their own
nuclear industry in Iran. Today we all know that Iranian METU

graduates cover the decision-making posts of the top management

levels in the Iranian nuclear business. They construct, design, build
and will soon operate nuclear power plants in Iran.
Whatever is said on Iranian business environment, you may criticize
their products, their outputs, their political environment or else, but
you should evaluate carefully the latest stage that they have reached
in their own nuclear technology. Today, Iranian nuclear technology is
somewhat the product of METU Mechanical Engineering Department
Nuclear Division of the 1968s.
Same is true for Pakistan. It is not secret that there are many METU
graduates in Pakistan working for the national nuclear industry as
well as other energy business, hydro, thermal, renewable energy.
We wish the great human resource of METU Nuclear division
graduates could have been utilized to establish the local nuclear
power plants in Turkey and solve our prevailing energy problem.
We shall enter into a serious energy crisis in 2008-2009, which is
agreed by all parties. Our big players of public and private enterprises
have foreseen the bottleneck. They had meetings one after another.
Turkish energy market is not so easy to deal with as well as not so
profitable. It is a very tough sector. It is a very difficult market. Public
enterprises cannot make new investments, since they have no
financial resources to allocate and no money to spend.

Nobody wants to make new big investments, just because our energy
market lost its bankability, its reliability in the financial markets.
International investors are reluctant to make investments; they do not
want to finance any project, since they foresee high risk. Because of
that high risk, they calculate a high interest rate.
Why our energy markets/ projects are not bankable? The
documents created to finance the new energy projects are not
bankable documents. They are not internationally acceptable and
recognized bankable documents. Our legal framework is not fully
developed and not properly tested yet. Very few investors show
interest on new energy projects. If you ask any international reputable
company to prepare any proposal for your new energy project, you
cannot get their response. The pre-feasibility / feasibility documents
are not in international standards.
Public tenders are not bankable; they ask impossible clauses, so
these are not applicable. The feasibility documents prepared in the
local market for billion US Dollar projects are created at low cost, at
low quality, and hence they are not acceptable if not miserable.
Today go to any reputable International Engineering Company, ask a
proposal for any of your energy projects, and see if they respond.
You are at the mercy of Eastern World/ Indian- China- Korean
companies, or Canadian Candu, if you eliminate USA and French

companies due to unnecessary international disputes of the near

past.
Eastern World companies are newcomers to the international nuclear
energy business, at low prices with their own developing/ untested
technology.
We should not exaggerate the nuclear power plant requirement. 5000
MWe tender for nuclear power plant is an exaggeration, if it will not
create pure foreign domination. Turkey hasnt been able to create her
own technology in nuclear energy business up to now, even though
we had sufficient staff/ human engineering/ intellectual power in
1968s.
Turkish companies could not create high value-added energy
products in energy business for her own local market to generate
cheap energy, not only nuclear technology. We even cannot construct
our own thermal power plant, not even simple coal firing plants. We
are not talking about a space shuttle; those are just a number of steel
tube fabrications.
Our own local private companies cannot cover the scope other than
civil works, foundations, and site installation, they operate at so low
profit margins, with low value-added levels, based on unqualified or
semi-qualified labor work.
Nobody wants to leave that unqualified or semi-qualified labor work to

foreign companies, local workers resist to foreign participation as in

Kazakhstan, Ireland, Gulf. We still hope that we can complete huge
tasks with so little early preparation. We still think that we can handle/
create bankable feasibility documents at low cost with in-house
excel sheets.
This writer, a veteran of energy business for more than 30 years, has
occupied seats at the foreign side of the negotiation table many times
in the past.
Foreign parties come to the negotiation table well prepared with all
calculated risks of the subject project, they make serious and
expensive due diligence works, they spend serious money for that
early preparation, they evaluate the project risks carefully.
When they receive your "In-house prepared so-called bankable
feasibility document"
They will advise that they will carefully review the document. That
review will not be finalized for years, and you wait for their final
decision in years and years.
Turkish people should realize that they should create their own
technology
They should support their own human resources, more funds to be
allocated to R&D, higher salaries should be paid for young

engineering graduates, more software and hardware supplies should

be acquired.
Believe me that our young engineering graduates are no different
than those of their counterparts in the reputable foreign companies. In
some of foreign engineering companies, there are even high level
managers / directors with Turkish origin
Nuclear power plants are basically a kind of improved thermal power
plants. There is one cycle more. You have to employ higher safety
measures, and solve waste problem appropriately. We can consider
further advantages of a nuclear power plant in energy security. It is
also good to train your people on nuclear technology, on nuclear
safety, on nuclear awareness.
Your geography imposes your foreign policies as well as your energy
initiatives. In your geography you have no luxury of staying antinuclear, nor staying idle in your environment. You need to develop
your own nuclear technology, educate your nuclear intellectual power,
train your human resources. By being an anti- nuclear activist, you
cannot learn details of the nuclear technology. You learn by doing as
elsewhere as always.
We should also appreciate that nuclear technology is a very dear,
very precious, very expensive issue. It is not free of charge. It is not
even possible to get only with bare money as in the case of thermal
power generation.

The level of development in your own country in Nuclear technology

will obviously warn other parties that you are no longer at the
vulnerable developing stage but in the high tech league. That has
also a deterrence factor for the rival parties to think twice for any
action they take against you.
If you do not wish to give any concession in your foreign policy, in that
case you should depend on your own talent at a lower and
independent cost. You can only get it through your own hard work by
employing your young talents with their latest scientific and
intellectual capability.
It is also a matter of survival of the fittest in this region.
Final wording, as the old saying goes, If you think you can, you can.
Ankara, 9 December 2007

Vineyards on Depleted Ash Dam Fields of Thermal

Power Plants
In this article, I will try to review an untold story of post
operation utilization of already depleted ash dam fields near old
existing thermal power plants. Ash dams are necessary for
thermal power plants. Whether you fire either hard coal or low
quality lignite, you generate lots of fly ash and bottom ash in the
end. You have to dispose that ash by any means.
If it is fly ash, you capture them through big capacity electrostatic
precipitators (ESP) prior to entering high stacks, collect and then
transfer to nearby cement plants to be added into cement production.
Local price is around 18- 20 US Dollars per ton FOB delivery at any
nearby cement plant.
If it is bottom ash, then you mix it with available nearby water, and
pump them all to nearby ash dam. Ash dam is a man made water
dam. You circulate the water and transfer the bottom ash from
thermal power plant to the dam. These ash dams are built by the
contractor during thermal power plant construction and they are used
during life cycle of the thermal power plant operation.
In the end, the thermal power plant ages, gets old, needs
rehabilitation. At the same time your ash dam gets filled with incoming
bottom ash. At first you insert some cement into the ash dam so that

you cover the bottom of dam, to insulate the dam from infusion of
unnecessary material to underwater resources.
Then the upcoming bottom ash fills the ash dam, where ash goes
down, water remains at top for water recirculation. Finally your ash
dam gets full, having no more bottom ash keeping capacity. If our
thermal power plant is still in operation, at that time you have to build
a new ash dam to keep the new bottom ash.
What happens after you fill the ash dam? What can you do on
depleted ash dam fields?
You put 1-2 meters of agricultural soil on top of depleted ash dam
fields, and plant suitable trees. Ash lands especially volcanic ash
lands are suitable for vineyards to grow good quality grapes for wine
production. Ash dam is a men-made ash field for vineyards. That is
the case everywhere. Some of the world famous vineyards of
California are not only on volcanic ash fields but also on depleted ash
dams, or on similar municipality refuse dump areas.
In Elbistan, administration raises pine trees. In Soma first ash dam,
administration plants olive trees and produces excellent virgin olive
oil. Yatagan ash dam capacity is almost complete. There are new
depleted ash dam fields waiting for agricultural utilization.

One Private thermal power plant administration in south coast is

planning to grow Cabernet Sauvignon grapes for nearby wine factory
in future.
Grapes are already planted around ash disposal land, however I do
not feel that neither land and nor environment suitable for Cabernet
Sauvignon production.
I would expect them to plant local grapes. Elbistan and Tufanbeyli
depleted coal fields are suitable for local kzGz grapes, Kangal
for Boazkere, ayrhan is suitable for local KalecikKaras, and an
anakkale is suitable for local KaraLahna / avu / Kuntra grapes.
Soma depleted coal fields are allocated for olive trees for sure and
their virgin olive oil is extraordinary. Yataan can follow Soma
experience and Yatagan administration should plant olive trees on
their almost depleted ash dam fields. Thermal power plants are long
term operations, and you learn while you operate.
All long term future strategies are to be carefully planned and
considered. The plants are to be operated with long term programs.
Privatization procedures are to enforce sufficient capacity ESPs,
FGDs in full operation at all times, as well as post agricultural
utilization of depleted ash dams near old thermal power plants.
Prinkipo, Istanbul, 25 July 2015

A Tale of Prinkipo (fiction)

This draft scenario/ screenplay described below is completely fiction/
set up, has nothing to do with reality nor with any real person.This
draft screenplay, is prepared to present to Italian/ US film director(s)
Ferzan zpetek? or Woody Allen?, to enable them to shoot the film
in Ancient Roman island Prinkipo (Bykada in modern times). This
draft scenario has passages on Turkish food, Turkish kitchen, Turkish
wine, Turkish gays, moreover there are also Italian architectural
elements in Prinkipo island at the turn of 20th Century and the
problem of energy supply security, as well as protection of nearby
environment. This scenario is completely fiction, it explains local
energy / environmental concerns and intended to draw attention to
the energy/ environmental problems in a small island near Istanbul.
Film starts depicting, Architect Aye (40+ years of age TurkishAmerican woman) living in New York, with her Italian-American
husband, Al (Aldo) Fretelli, in ferry from Bostanc (Anatolian side of
Istanbul) to Bykada (Prinkipo island in ancient times for Buyukada,
Prince islands), expedition begins with images of the city line services
aboard ship. The camera approaches to luggage tags. JFK-Istanbul
THY Turkish airline luggage tags appear. They landed a few hours
ago. Couple have 2 little cute girls at 5-7 years old with them.
Ferry arrives to Bykada seaport/ docks, Ayse meets her mother
and father. They pull wheeled luggage at a crowded square, enter the
crowded queue

of horse carts. Aye her mother and her small

daughter in one cab, Al his father-in-law and eldest daughter of Aldo

on the other cab to ride. Horse Carts leave from the travel range, they
pass by Hotel Splendid Palas and Anatolia Club, along the way
watching magnificent old stone houses (mansions) built

mostly

designed by Italian architects at the turn of 20 thcentury. Father-inlaw owns the stone house by an Italian architecture at the end of the
road.
House helper rushes to open the gate and carry the luggage.
Together, they pass to a large balcony overlooking the sea, the cold
white wine is serves, women in the kitchen rush for dinner. Guys wear
kitchen aprons, help to slice bread, make salad, cut melon, and
watermelon, nothing more. They sing together Puccini opera arias,
which is in the environment from a CD player.
Ayes American husband, the groom (Italian American AL / Aldo
Fretelli), is an important International Hedge Fund manager in New
York. He is well educated, well trained, very rich and very intellectual.
Aye has Post-Doc degree in Architecture and old house renovations
from the University of Firenze in Italy, so Ayse speaks Italian as well
as English and Turkish. Conversations continue in mixture of Italian,
English, Turkish languages.
Aye's father, a medical doctor, with the money he has earned from
his clinic, had invested in healthcare / hospital industry. Early evening
time his son, Ayes brother Ali and his young wife come. Ladies
exaggerate the cooking work in kitchen. Ali makes salad, in the

meantime he explains the local investment climate to his brother-inlaw. They have new investment in IT sector but they need to find a
new investment sector. Local IT sector is very competitive, energy
sector may create new opportunities to earn more money.
Properly cooled local white wines are served, while Aldo has 2 each
Italian Barberesko wines with himself, bought in Airport duty-free
brought as present for his hosts. After white wines, they open up the
Italian red wines first, each takes half-cup, then taste. After they open
up local red quality wines, of kzgz, Boazkere, KalecikKaras
grapes. Other invited guests of Prinkipo island appear at the gate,
academics,

gay

couples,

rich

Turkish/

Jewish

businessmen/

businesswomen with their spouses, speaking in French/ English/

Italian/ Turkish in the highly educated intellectual environment.
Sisyphus of Prinkipo and his wife enters the environment, they bring
a cup of fresh bean dish.
The family house/ mansion is almost 100-year old stone structure
with high ceilings also the work of an Italian architect. Trotsky
mansion is also known

as "Arab Izzet Pasha mansion" the first

owner, designed by Architect Nicholas Dimadis, construction

completed in year 1885, is located adjacent. Guests talk about
Trotsky, the period of his stay in Prinkipo island between 1929-1933.
They talk about those years. Then they discuss about how to
renovate Trotsky mansion without disturbing the original structure.

Environment consistently have filled with sounds of Puccini operas

via CD player. A young girl enters, the room, turns off the CD player
and starts to play Beethoven's 3rd piano concerto from her memory.
In the end of that impromptu piano solo concert, they all applaud the
young pianist.
American husband / wife Aye and AL, sleep long/late hours on the
morning the next day. The window is open, the smell of the sea and
nearby pine tree forest is in their sleeping room, the children rush in
the room with pleasure. Breakfast is in a large spacious balcony.
Helpers do act as if they are family members / relatives in comfort.
There is an old but fit gardener / caretaker in the garden.
They leave the family mansion around noon time. They visit new
exhibition in nar (Maple) square, Islands- Buildings- Architects on
magnificent architectural stone buildings of the past, most of them
are designed/ and/or built by Italian/ Greek/ Jewish Architects at the
turn of 20th century. They examine the pictures/ photos/ documents/
designed in the exhibition. Buildings are beautiful but old, dilapidated
so they all need renovation. It is not possible to sell those houses to
foreigners with no reciprocity agreements, so new application is long
term leasing say for 49 years. They admire the Mizzi Palace which
was designed by Italian architect Raimondo T. DAronco, who was
also Royal Architect of Ottoman Sultan Abdulhamit-II.

They feel that there is a growing commercial / business capacity in

the island for restoration/ renovation works of the old mansions/
houses.
At noon time, they go to Prinkipo SanPasifiko Italian Roman Catholic
church (by Italian architect Domenico Giorgio Stampa, built in 1862)
for weekly Tuesday ritual.
The Italian priest, Father Don Fellice meets the couple. He prays for
them, then they all listen to Organ Church music. The organist of the
San Pacifico church, Turkish / Italian young Renato plays "Je t'aime,
moi non plus" passages within the player, Don Felice has half angry,
half-scolding manner with his eyes.,
Fener Greek Patriarchate has received the ownership of the former
Greek Orphanage -which was by Levantine French architect
Alexander Vallauri. Aye receives the work order for its restoration
(New York City architect, Nicholas Koutsomitis).
The New York Times, newspaper has released an article on this
subject in the summer months. They climb the KadYoran(Tired
Judge?) slope in the late afternoon as the sun sets, through the
path/road of Lovers, and TRKYILMAZ street route. They go to the
old Greek orphanage, watch the old building outside, dilapidated
wooden building, biggest wooden structure in Europe, second biggest
in the world. The Patriarchate has received the ownership, but could

not raise funds for renovation which has an estimated budget of 50

million U.S. Dollars.
The following day early in the morning, they plan 8-km cycling/ bike
tour around the island, they arrive to Lunapark square at the middle
of the island, witness an unfortunate accident of an inexperienced
local not wearing bicycle helmet with a horse cart.
A young local girl is injured and transferred by ambulance to
Bykada Public hospital. Ambulance passes through path where
Sisyphus (your writer) is collecting litter -plastic pets / glass / metal
box.
At the square, they lock their bikes to a side pole. They climb the
Slope of Misery (or Torture) leading to Aya Yorgi (Hagia Yorgi)
Monastery - designed by Greek Architect Kapetanakis, construction
completed in year 1906. While climbing the Torture slope to AyaYorgi
Monastery, they do not look back, they do not speak, they only prey
to what they believe.
Aye explains, "Future is shaped by expectations, you ask/ pray/
request the best for yourself, for your loved ones, you get the best in
time. AL confirms, "Very true, but as in the economy, in this regard
there was also a Nobel Prize in Economics in year 1995, for this
principle given to Robert E. Lukas," he said.

They put light on candles for realization wishes of their prays in the
monastery. The priest read the prayer, they pray. Don Felice of
SanPasifiko is now the master in AyaYorgi / the same actor, with
orthodox priest costume.
On the hill, they watch the Sea of Marmara and high flying migratory
birds coming from Europe going to Africa, with some resting time on
Old Greek Orphanage roofs.
They come back to LunaPark (merry-go-round) square, they take
back their bikes. They ride towards Former Turkish PM "Fethi Okyar"
House (architect Sedat Hakki Eldem, construction completed in year
1938), they pass by ViranBa, then they arrive to South Park former
old garbage dump, then they give a break in the recreational public
park area, at south end of Prinkipo island.
Aldo is an important Hedge Fund manager in New York city, he says,
"This place is empty, owned by the state land, or the Treasury".
Asks his wife, 'What is the estimated area of this park?, Aye
responded,"Probably 100 acres". (In fact, 10 acres). AL responds,
"Here is a nice investment set up to build a new state-of-art nuclear
power plant with 1000 MWe electricity output, adds lets see how we
can do it.
Aye says "Don't be silly," she adds, "You need to have at least 400
acres for 1000 MWe Nuclear power plant, could you get construction
permission, in city of Istanbul?"

AL answers, "That would be great, it's a hard rock bottom, we fill the
rest of the sea a little, we place heavy load on solid rock island floor,
we put light weights on the filling construction, we generate 1000
MWe of electricity, and transfer to main land through 3km coastal
HVDC cables, it is easy at about 300+ US Dollar per meter cost at
current market plus some auxiliaries, to transmission transformer on
the other end of the channel. We supply power to all Istanbul to
almost 15 million people, we have supply security, You have ever
raising energy prices due to very expensive Russian natural gas. We
do not have environmental pollution, we can manage waste disposal
and security with high technology, no problem, lots of money.
He adds, "We need to learn more about Turkish energy / investment
incentive legislation, then we need to meet with the Minister of
Energy and Chairman of the Energy Markets Regulatory Board in
Ankara. We need to find an experienced and financially secure local
partner company in energy investments. Your family is good in
health / hospital/ IT sector, but Energy is a new investment sector for
them. Let me explain the situation here to my British partners, Lord
Humphrey (head of the British financial group) and Sir Barnard
responsible for energy investments, (names adapted from Yes
Minister BBC TV serials)."
We need to find local investor partners for sharing risks with us, and
help/teach us. Your father mentioned a local friend who got involved
in similar thermal power plants, where environmentalists have

objected, by talking to him we may learn more about business and

investment climate. He has experience, he knows how this type of
investment is realized, how to get license, how to get land
expropriation if/where necessary".
Later in the day, they visit Hamidiye Mosque (construction completed
1895, architect unknown, Raimondo T. D'Aronco?) Imam Mesut
Bakhtiyar Effendi (same actor playing the priest role), usually on the
mosque backyard, playing football with the local kids. He responded
to the angry pious believers, "Children's voices are not bothered by
the Great God!"says. He tells about the importance on the
environmental sensitivity in Friday prayers.
Most of the Muslim male roles/characters go to Friday prayers.
Writer / restaurateur, begins local environmental organization to
oppose Nuclear power plant investment on the island.
Closure. The end of the movie:
We all know that NPP is a long term investment. Financing,
tendering, construction, operation are all very difficult. Waste disposal
and security problems are not yet solved. On the other hand, the
island's south coast is very deep, the landfill is not possible, parking
space is very small for nuclear power plant construction. Nuclear /
thermal power plant cant be installed, however a small solar power
plant with a capacity of maximum 10-MWe can be installed. Wind
power plants cant be installed, because on the air corridor above the
island of Prinkipo, perhaps thousands of migratory birds fly every

year from Europe to Africa, which continued for millions of years on

the natural route. Wind turbines, propellers, if mounted on the island
hills, perish thousands of birds while passing, and wind turbines cant
work, they immediately deteriorate. Solar panels can be placed in
front of the empty construction site on AyaNikola beach. Solar power
plant can be established here to generate electricity for the people of
the Prinkipo island for their domestic household electricity needs.
I got no response yet from Ferzan zpetek. I wonder if it helps to
change Italian ALDO character to "Jewish Aaron" with Sefarat
heritage, whose family emigrates to New York from Prinkipo at the
turn of the 20th century. His old relatives still live in Prinkipo island.
So I tell about more details of Jewish Prinkipo culture. They go to
Hesed LeAvraam Synagogue in Prinkipo- (built in 1904 designed
by Gabriel Tedeschi, contractor Behar Parali) for Saturday praying,
where they meet with local Rabbi, the same actor who played priest
and imam earlier.
I wonder, if the world famous Director "Woody Allen" gets interested
with our draft scenario? Could he shoot a similar movie to "Midnight
in Paris" in Prinkipo?? For example, say "A Tale of Prinkipo". This
may also help to reduce unnecessary tension between Israel and
Turkey.
Sisyphus of Prinkipo Island, August 2011