California Counts August 2016 Survey of Californians

Highlights from the Poll

Prepared by:
Joshua Dyck, PhD, David C. Barker, PhD, Kimberly L. Nalder, PhD, and Jasmine Stewart Oliver1
The Institute for Social Research, Sacramento State University

The CALSPEAKS Opinion Research Center at the Institute for Social Research, Sacramento State University,
contracted with the California Counts consortium of public broadcasters in the state to conduct an
extensive survey of Californians’ electoral and public policy attitudes, using the representative CALSPEAKS
survey panel (for general information and technical details regarding CALSPEAKS, see
www.csus.isr/CALSPEAKS).

The survey field dates were August 15-24, yielding 915 completed surveys and 44 partially completed
surveys. We also mailed 42 surveys to panelists who do not have access to the internet, but we have not
received and incorporated those survey responses yet. The margin of error for the distribution of
responses on any individual survey item is equal to or less than +/- four percentage points.

The following sections highlight the survey’s main findings, broken down by topic.

I. Elections

The poll asked respondents to share their preferences regarding the US Senate contest as well as several
initiatives that will be on the ballot this fall.

1
Joshua Dyck is Associate Professor of Political Science at University of Massachusetts-Lowell, and an Honorary
Fellow at the Institute for Social Research at Sacramento State University. David C. Barker is Director of the
CALSPEAKS Opinion Research Center and the Institute for Social Research, and Professor of Government, at
Sacramento State University. Kimberly L. Nalder is Political Polling Director at the CALSPEAKS Opinion Research
Center, Director of the Project for an Informed Electorate, and Professor of Government at Sacramento State
University. Jasmine Stewart Oliver is a Research Associate at CALSPEAKS Opinion Research Center and the Institute
for Social Research, Sacramento State University.
  Kamala Harris holds a commanding lead in the race for US Senate over Loretta Sanchez, gaining
support from 51% of California registered voters compared to Sanchez’s 19%; 6% of voters say
they’ll pick someone else and 25% are undecided. Harris leads Sanchez among Democrats (63-
19), Independents (57-28), Republicans (33-17) and among most demographic subcategories. In-
terestingly, 36 percent of Republicans are undecided in this race, the first time that two members
of the same party have faced each other in a race for the US Senate since California adopted the
top-2 primary.

 Three ballot propositions asked about in this survey also had large leads. Although ballot initiative
preferences tend to be much more fungible than preferences in candidate elections, backers of
Proposition 64, 63 and 57 are all enjoying support from more than 70% of California registered
voters.

 Proposition 64 seeks to legalize the sale and consumption of marijuana. Proposition 63 seeks to
limit purchases of high capacity magazines and require background checks for ammunition pur-
poses. Proposition 57, which would make changes to criminal sentencing laws to increase parole
opportunities for felons convicted of non-violent crimes. All three measures get overwhelming
support from Democrats (80, 93 and 80 percent, respectively), but also a majority of support from
California Republicans (53, 60 and 56 percent, respectively).

 While all three ballot measures receive strong support, so too does the concept of voting at the
ballot box. On the issues that are most important, 47% of Californians say that it is better if these
issues are decided by voters, compared to only 11% who say they are better decided by the legis-
lature. Another 32% say they are both equally good ways and 10% are uncertain.

 California is close as decided territory as states come in national elections and our poll shows why.
Large majorities oppose both Republican nominee Donald Trump’s plan to build a wall along the
Mexican border (65% opposed including 55% strongly opposed) and his so-called “Muslim ban”
on immigration (60% opposed with 45% strongly opposed). Trump also receives the lowest rating
of any candidate or group on a “feeling thermometer” – 71% give him a negative or “cold” rating,
while only 17% of Californians have “warm” feelings towards the Republican nominee for Presi-
dent. Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton is by no means beloved; 47% of respondents rate her
warmly compared to 41% who feel “cold” towards her. Large majorities favored two policies that
Clinton supports, including her plan to guarantee paid family leave for up to 12 weeks (67% favor
including 37% who strongly favor) and her plan to offer tuition-free education to families that
make less than $85,000 a year (63% favor, including 39% who strongly favor).

II. California Dream

Our poll also asked several questions about life satisfaction with living in California, state pride, and about
the attainability of the California dream.

 Among those surveys, 78% said that California was a special place to live, including 42% who say it
is “very special.” Another 47% said they are “very proud” to be from the Golden State; 27% were
 moderately proud, and only 19% were either “only a little proud” or “not proud at all.” Pride is
highest among Democrats (56% very proud), African Americans (53% very proud), Latinos (52%
very proud), and those ages 26-34 (59% very proud) and 35-49 (53% very proud). Those who are
the least proud to be from California are those 65 and older – 29% are either “only a little proud”
or “not proud at all” to be from California.

 Californians were split about what exactly makes up the so-called “Californian Dream.” Availabil-
ity of good-paying jobs ranked first – 60% of respondents identified that as part of the California
dream. Other items were: the ability to buy a home (47%), the idea that your children can do bet-
ter than you (47%), access to a high-quality and affordable education (45%) and the ability to re-
tire comfortably (41%). A quarter of respondents (25%) said none of these make up the Califor-
nian dream compared to three quarters (75%) who picked one of these options.

 On the individual questions, we see some predictable divides by party ID, race/ethnicity, income,
education and age. For instance, Democrats are more likely than Republicans (53% to 40%) to
view access to education as part of the California dream. A similar gap is found on race and eth-
nicity where 46% of whites and 49% of Latinos view affordable college education as part of the
California dream compared to 26% of black respondents. Those aged 35-39 (56%) are more likely
than other age groups to view buying a home as part of the dream and to view the ability to retire
comfortably (50%) as part of the dream. African-Americans are the most likely to view upward
mobility (your children can do better than you) as part of the dream – 64% compared to 42% for
whites and 52% for Latinos. f

 Respondents were also asked whether education, good jobs, home ownership, retirement and
mobility were realistic goals for themselves/their family. Majorities of respondents identified two
items – the ability to retire comfortably (65%) and the ability to buy a home (63%) as no longer
attainable aspects of the California dream. The ability to buy a home is seen, not surprisingly as
“unattainable” among those who make less than $30,000 per year in family income. But, even for
those who reported making over $100,000 per year, 63% said that home ownership is not a realis-
tic goal. On the question of retirement, 71% of those whose highest level of education is high
school or less and 72% of those age 25-34 view a comfortable retirement as unattainable. Finally,
while African-Americans were the most likely to say that upward mobility was an important part
of the California dream, only 45% of African-Americans in our survey viewed that as a realistic
goal.

III. The Economy and Immigration

The survey also asked several questions regarding the economy and immigration.

 Despite some pessimism about achieving parts of the California dream, respondents are not espe-
cially positive or negative about economic circumstances. Nearly half (49%) said their own finan-
cial situation has not changed in the last year compared to 33% who say they are better off and
14% who say they are worse off. Older and younger Californians are the most likely to say they
are worse off (32% of those age 18-25 and 27% of those 65 and up). With regards to the econ-
omy in the state, 32% say it has gotten better, 14% say it has gotten worse, and 39% say it has
 stayed the same. A similar pattern emerges at the national level: 34% say the national economy
has improved, 14% say it has worsened and 43% say it has stayed about the same. Notably, more
optimistic impressions of the economy occur among those with higher levels of education and
higher family incomes.

 At the same time, 71% of Californians describe the number of people living in poverty a “major
problem.” Similarly, 65% describe the level of income inequality in the United States as a “major
problem,” 70% describe the cost of healthcare as a “major problem,” and 55% describe finding a
good paying job as a “major problem.” So while the economy gets positive grades for stasis
(things are not getting worse for most Californians), there are growing problems related to eco-
nomic injustice that large majorities in the Golden State find deeply concerning.

 Asked to think about the future, Californians were split on optimism vs. pessimism: 36% say they
are more hopeful than scared, compared to 43% who say they are more scared than hopeful.

 On the policy front, California was the first state to adopt a statewide $15 minimum wage in April
of 2016. Californians are strongly in support of the policy with 33% strongly in favor, 26% some-
what in favor, 17% somewhat opposed and 19% strongly opposed. The policy is supported most
strongly by Democrats (82% support compared to only 34% support among Republicans), those at
the lowest income rung (69%) and African-Americans (87%, with only 7% opposed).

 When asked about trade, the modal answer that respondents to our poll gave was uncertainty:
33% say that free trade deals like NAFTA and TPP strengthen the economy, 30% say they weaken
the economy and 37% say that they “don’t know.”

 The poll also probed for views on how immigration affects both the economy and the American
way of life. Californians are split: 47% say that immigration strengthens the economy (23% a lot;
24% a little) compared to 38% who say is weakens the economy (19% a lot; 19% a little), with 15%
of Californians saying they “don’t know.” When asked if rapid immigration enhances or threatens
the American way of life, 50% of respondents said it enriches life while 40% say it threatens life.
However, more white respondents say it threatens the American way of life (47%) than enriches it
(43%). Majorities of African-Americans (67%) and Latinos (51%) say that immigration enriches the
American way of life. A large majority of Republicans (66%) says that rapid immigration threatens
the American way of life.

 When asked specifically about undocumented immigration, a majority of survey respondents de-
fined it as a problem, with 45% saying it is a “major problem” and 29% saying it is a “minor prob-
lem.” This includes 50% of whites, 48% of those whose highest level of education is high school,
55% of those over age 65, 76% of Republicans and 50% of men saying it is a “major problem.”

IV. Guns, Terrorism and Orlando

One of the main sets of foci of the survey was an extended set of questions regarding gun rights/control
and terrorism.
 On the issue of guns, gun violence, gun ownership and gun control, a majority of Californians are
clearly concerned about gun violence and willing to limit the right of gun ownership in the name
of public safety.

 On gun violence, 61% of respondents noted that it was a “major problem” and 19% said it was a
“minor problem” compared to only 17% who say it is “not much of a problem” or “not a problem
at all.” Gun violence is viewed as a problem among all demographic subgroups, but especially
among Democrats, African-Americans, women, and those over 65 years of age.

 A large majority of Californians prioritize public safety and gun control over 2nd Amendment
rights: 67% say it is more important to regulate guns than to protect the right to own a gun; only
26% said protecting the rights of gun ownership was more important. Additionally, 49% of re-
spondents are in favor of more thorough background checks for anyone attempting to purchase
firearms, compared to 45% who are opposed.

 The issue of mass shootings around the country in places like San Bernardino and Orlando has
created a nexus around the issues of guns, gun control, violence and concerns about terrorism.

 When asked what was responsible for the attack in Orlando, the most popular answer (respond-
ents could pick multiple responses) was the easy availability of military-grade assault weapons
with 59% saying that was responsible for the tragedy in Orlando. Only two other answers were
identified by a majority of respondents: (1) bigotry towards the LGBTQ community (54%) and (2)
lack of attention paid towards mental illness (52%). Notably, some respondents (40%) did link the
event to radical Islamic fundamentalism. Additionally, a small minority of respondents of re-
spondents said that lack of properly armed and trained security (17%) or undocumented immigra-
tion (11%) were responsible.

 Asked more directly about mass shootings, Californians are split on whether having civilians with
concealed weapons would be helpful or make a potential situation more dangerous: 33% said citi-
zens with concealed weapons would be helpful and 40% said it would make the situation more
dangerous, with 9% said neither and 19% were uncertain. The main split on this question breaks
down by party ID, with Republicans saying helpful at 58% compared to Democrats at 13%. The
partisan split on gun attitudes is stark given that Independents are ambivalent with 49% saying
they are don’t know.

 Finally, when asked about how their behavior has changed in response to mass shooting in places
like France, Turkey and Florida, only 17% of Californians say that this made them less likely to go
to public gatherings, 27% say that they still attend large gathering but are worried when there,
and 40% say they don’t think much about it. A small minority, 5%, say that they purposely attend
larger gatherings as an act of defiance.

 Overall, terrorism is viewed as a problem, with 41% calling it a major problem and 30% calling it a
minor problem.
V. Profiling, Police and “Black Lives Matter”

With several high profile incidents where suspects were shot and killed by police this summer in
Minnesota and Louisiana followed by subsequent shootings of police officers in Dallas, we also asked a
series of questions surrounding these issues.

 Overall, there is recognition of a problem across demographic groups. When asked about racial
profiling in the United States, 27% of Californians say that it is a “huge” problem, 41% say that it is
a “significant” problem, 17 say it is just a minor problem, and 8% say it is not a problem at all.
There are some predictable race differences on this question: 58% of black respondents identify
profiling as a huge problem, compared to 19% of white respondents and 36% of Latino respond-
ents. However, 41% of white respondents identify profiling as a “significant problem.” There is
also a large gape gap, with 43% of those 18-25 saying profiling is a “huge problem” compared to
only 14% of those 65 and up.

 Interestingly, when asked about racial profiling specifically in California, 18% of respondents iden-
tify it as a huge problem, 41% identify profiling as a significant problem, 22% say it’s just a minor
problem and 8% say it’s not a problem at all. Furthermore, the racial differences are small when
talking specifically about California.

 A similar pattern emerges when respondents were subsequently asked how much of a problem
excessive force by police towards people of color is in the United States and in California. In the
United States, 29% say it’s a huge problem, 37% say a significant problem, 18% say just a minor
problem and 9% say not a problem at all; 7% are unsure. We observe the biggest difference in
responses to this question by race: 64% of African-Americans say that excessive force is a huge
problem, compared to 23% of whites and 35% of Latinos. In California, a similar pattern exists,
but overall the use of excessive force by police in California is viewed more favorably: 18% say it’s
a huge problem, 34% say it’s a significant problem, 24% say just a minor problem and 12% say not
a problem at all; 12% are unsure. That said, a majority still identify this as a huge or significant
problem, including 58% of African-Americans compared to 45% of whites.

 Finally, while profiling and excessive force of police are viewed by a majority of Californians as a
significant or huge problem, views on the Black Lives Matter that advocates against excessive
force by police against people of color are split – 36% view the movement warmly, 38% view the
movement coldly with 24% in the middle (uncertain or ambivalent). However, the All Lives Matter
response to Black Lives Matter is viewed favorably by 51% of Californians compared to 25% who
view is negatively.

VI. Transportation and Taxes

The last part of our in-depth examination into the attitudes of California voters examined their attitudes
towards transportation and taxes.
 We find split responses on whether respondents would be in favor of building a bullet train linking
Northern and Southern California: 49% are in favor of using taxpayer money to pay for its devel-
opment (21% strongly, 28% somewhat) while 37% are opposed (12% somewhat, 25% strongly),
and 14% are unsure.

 Californians are willing to favor tax increases in order to fix and maintain California’s roads: 57%
are in favor (24% strongly, 33% somewhat) and 31% are opposed (14% somewhat, 17% strongly).
In addition, a majority are in favor of raising taxes to pay to fix and maintain California’s mass
transit systems: 54% are in favor (24% strongly, 30% somewhat) and 35% are opposed (18%
somewhat, 17% strongly), with 11% unsure. Support is considerably higher among Democrats
and those with the highest levels of income and education.
VII. What Issues are the media not covering enough?

Finally, our poll asked Californians to identify what issues they would like to see greater media coverage of.
While answers were varied, the top answers were (in order): The Influence of Money in Politics,
Healthcare, Water Policy, Political Corruption, Economic Inequality, and Housing Affordability.