Methodology

The Data Analytics Lab at NBC News utilizes voter file information provided by TargetSmarta
leading provider of political data and analytic services for a number of organizations and
campaigns. TargetSmart builds and maintains a high-quality database of voter registration files
from all 50 states plus the District of Columbia, acquired from state and county sources.
Aggregated together, the national file includes more than 190 million registered voters. This
data allows experts at the Data Analytics Lab to conduct independent, non-partisan analysis on
voting behavior and turnout historically.

Voter files differ state to state, both in terms of their formats as well as the data fields they
contain. In general, voter files contain basic demographic information about registered persons
in each state such as their gender and age. Vote history information is also provided but does
not contain any details about who an individual voted for.

Though TargetSmart expertly aggregates and updates their national file for easier, faster
analysis, the timeliness and comprehensiveness of the data provided varies by state. For
example, while some states such as Florida provide updated lists of their voter registration
records almost daily during the final months of presidential election years, other states provide
far fewer updates.

In some states such as North Carolina, Florida and Georgia, racially-identifying information is
collected and disseminated as part of ones voter registration record. In most states, however,
this information is unavailable.

Voter file data is considered especially valuable because it is an actual record of every person
who turned out in an election. While survey research has traditionally been a source of valuable
voter and electorate information, it is most useful for understanding the opinions, attitudes and
motivations of voters. Voter registration data is a more comprehensive and precise source of
information regarding voter turnout as well as the demographic composition of the electorate.

Analysts at the NBC News Data Analytics Lab will utilize TargetSmart data throughout the 2016
election cycle.




Early Voter Analysis

The early voter analysis looked at historical vote information from TargetSmarts 2012 voter
snapshot files. In 14 states, the type of vote cast was unavailable for analysis and was excluded.
These states include: Alabama, Delaware, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Massachusetts,
Missouri, Mississippi, Nebraska, New Hampshire, Ohio, South Carolina and South Dakota. Early
Voters, for purposes of this analysis, are defined as those who cast ballots via mail-in
absentee, in-person no excuse absentee voting, and early voting at the polls. Election Day
voters include any voter who cast a ballot on Election Day at their designated polling station.

A compilation of absentee and early vote dates were compiled from state sources.