Today, scholars and scientists who study ancient civilizations cite environ- men

tal factors, overpopulation, wars, disease, politics, and energy and food short
ages as the reasons for collapse. And although these explanations are factual, t
hey also leave out the single most important principle of life on earth: Evolut
ion. The process and rate at which biological change occurs between one generat
ion and the next. Somewhere along the line, biologists handed the task of unde
rstanding the relationship between evolution and modern man to psychologists and
sociologists, who quickly formed theories of their own. So the ramifications o
f evolution on day-to-day life, public policy, and persistent, irresolvable pro
blems were never solidified. As a result, aside from a few enthusiasts in the e
cology movement and their naturalists brethren, evolutionary principles have ma
naged to be- come irrelevant. Yet, to solve the highly complex, dangerous glob
al problems we face today, we must first recognize the crucial relationship bet
ween evolutionary change and the modern human condition. To finally answer the
question scholars have wrestled with for centurieswhy do human beings compulsive
ly follow the same pat- tern of collapse again and again and againwe must come t
o terms with how we are wired to behave, irrespective of nationality, race, int
elligence, wealth, or political convenience. We must look to the physiological
capabilities, as well as the limitations, of the human organism itself. Humank
ind is a work in progress, so at any point in time our biological apparatus can t
ake us only so far. Put another way, the intricacy and magnitude of the issues
that the Mayans faced during their final hoursclimate change, civil unrest, food
shortages, fast-spreading viruses, and a population explosionexceeded their abi
lity to obtain facts, analyze them, innovate, plan, and act to stop them. Their
problems simply became too complex. The point at which a society can no longer
think its way out of its problems is called the cognitive threshold. And once a
society reaches this cognitive threshold, it begins passing unresolved issues fr
om one generation to the next until, finally, one or more of these problems pus
h the civilization over the edge. This is the real reason for collapse.
John Stanton, CBS, ABC, and CNN commentator in Washington, D.C., and author of
Evolutionary Cognitive Neuroscience summarizes the predicament this way: The w
orld that seems so familiar to you and mea world with roads, schools, grocery st
ores, factories, farms and nation stateshas lasted for only an eye blink of time
when compared to our entire evolutionary history. The computer age is only a l
ittle older than the typical college student and the industrial revolution is a
mere 200 years old. Agriculture first appeared on earth only 10,000 years ago,
and it wasnt until about 5,000 years ago that as many as half the human populati
on engaged in farming rather than hunting and gathering.
Stanton then compare
s this rate of change to the pace of evolution: Natural Selection is a slow proc
ess and there havent been enough generations for it to design circuits that are
well-adapted to our post-industrial life. Its curious that we are willing to acce
pt physical limitations in every other area but the human brain. We accept the
fact that a human cant lift five thousand pounds, run a mile in thirty seconds, o
r stay under water for more than a few minutes. We also accept archaeological e
vidence that shows the human brain has been quickly evolving for the past twent
y-five million years. We have museums filled with skeletal proof that our early
ancestors didnt enjoy near the cognitive abilities we do today. Whats more, most
of us agree that the brain will continue to evolve in the future; it will adap
t and mutate in response to rapidly changing environmental conditions, though n
o one can predict precisely how. So, doesnt it also logically follow that we hav
e cognitive limits today? In fact, our problems have become so large and so c
omplex that experts rarely agree on what the problem is anymore. As a result lea
ders have become completely dependent on sophisticated computer- based modelsthe
kind used to make predictions in quantum physicsto run thousands of possible ca
tastrophic scenarios: What if a dirty bomb makes it through our borders? What i
f a pandemic virus annihilates a major metropolitan area? What if water or food
is contaminated by biological weaponry? What if both polar caps melt? No more s
imple cause and effect. No more quick diagnosis and remedy. And no more simple
left- and right-brain problem-solving.

The bottom line is this: When it comes to the evolution of the human organism, i
t doesnt matter if we are talking about the capabilities of the brain, how fast
we can run a mile, or whether we have a sufficient number of appendages to drive
, talk on our cell phones, and drink a cup of coffee at the same time. Our biol
ogical capabilities determine how fast and how far we can go. Consequently, th
e difference between an advanced culture that survives and one that does not ma
y simply boil down to whether a society develops new ways to triumph over a natu
rally reoccurring cognitive threshold. How well do we understand our physiologic
al limitations, our biological predispositions, and the remnants of prehistoric
drives and instincts? Do we take prophylactic measures to deal with them? Or do
we set aside the principles of evolution and continue to repeat an unconscious
pattern of complexity and collapse?
The Early Signs
The study of early civilizations suggests that two telltale signs occur prior t
o the specific incident(s) blamed for their collapse. The first sign is gridlo
ck. Gridlock occurs when civilizations become unable to comprehend or resolve
large, complex problems, despite acknowledging beforehand that these issues may
lead to their demise. For example, we now know that the Mayans lived with drou
ght conditions, civil war, and growing food shortages for thousands of years pr
ior to collapse. However, foreseeing all these problems in advance was of littl
e use. The Mayans lacked the ability to discern the complexity of their circums
tances and, therefore, had little possibility of rectifying deteriorating condi
tions. Instead, they did what every great civilization does when it reaches a c
ognitive threshold: They simply passed their dangerous problems from one generat
ion to the next as these problems continued to grow in magnitude and peril. Th
en, as conditions grow more desperate, the second symptom appears: the substitu
tion of beliefs for knowledge and fact. When we are trapped in an undertow, we
believe that if we simply step up our efforts and swim harder toward the shore,
we will prevail against the current.
Despite empirical evidence that this isnt working, we refuse to abandon our beli
ef and persist in swimming in a direct path toward land as we grow increasingly
exhausted and panic ensues. No data, information, or facts will deter us from o
ur convictionnot even the threat of death. Human beings are organisms that have
always required both beliefs and knowledge. We drew mystical creatures on cave w
alls to help us capture large prey, made sacrifices to invisible forces to assu
re bountiful harvests, and carved idols to increase fertility. We engaged in ri
tuals to make the rains return, gathered great armies in prayer, and practiced b
loodletting for centuries to cure the ill. In fact we cannot find a single exam
ple of when humans did not embrace unproven beliefs. It doesnt matter whether we
examine human societies in the deepest jungles of South America, on the remote
islands off Bali, or in the most industrialized nations in the world; beliefs
are a part of everyday life. So it follows that, if we cannot find a single exa
mple of a belief-free society, we must necessarily conclude that beliefs, along
with the pursuit of knowledge, are just as much a part of human biology as the
requirement for water, oxygen, and sustenance. Beliefs arent nurture; they are
nature. They are not optional; they are a basic human need. But it is also tru
e that, throughout history, when knowledge can be attained, we substitute facts
with beliefs. What do I mean by beliefs? Beliefs are merely ideas that have no
t been proven. According to Dr. James Watson, Nobel Laureate credited along wit
h Francis Crick for the discovery of the structure of DNA, we need beliefs to
function, even to cross the street: The light turns green and we need to believe
drivers will obey the signal and stop for us. If we had no belief, we would be
forced to wait until all the cars came to a complete stop before crossing the
street. Without beliefs, we would have to question every assumption and action,
and this would lead to enormous dysfunction. We wouldnt turn the kitchen faucet
on if we didnt believe that water would come out; we wouldnt schedule a dentist
appointment if we didnt believe we would be alive next week; and we wouldnt depos
it money in the bank if we didnt believe it would be there when we needed it. In

this way, human beliefs are not limited to religion. We possess a wide spectru
m of beliefs that help us function every minute of every day. But we are also a
n organism that requires knowledge: proven data to make rational decisions and
solve problems. There is no debate that knowledge is much harder to obtain than
belief. The acquisition of knowledge requires com- plex cognitive processes su
ch as abstraction, searching, learning, inference, analysis, synthesis, decisio
n-making, and judgment. Knowledge also requires replication, application, inter
pretation, and scrutiny. Compared to adopting beliefs, the acquisition of facts
is pricey. A society advances quickly when both human needsbelief and knowledgear
e met. In other words, we thrive when facts and beliefs coexist side by side, a
nd neither dominate our existence. But as social processes, institutions, tech
nologies, and discoveries mount in complexity, obtaining knowledge becomes more
difficult. Suddenly, water we once fetched directly from our well comes from a
faucet, and we no longer can discern where it originated, how it was processed
, distributed, priced, or allocated. The same goes for our monetary system, law
s, taxes, satellite television, and terrorism. Every aspect of life accelerates
in complexity. Not only does the number of things we must comprehend grow, the
intricacy of these things also exponentially increases. So, the amount of knowl
edge our brains must acquire to achieve real understanding quickly becomes over
whelming. When complexity makes knowledge impossible to obtain, we have no alte
rnative but to defer to beliefs; we accept assumptions and unproven ideas about
our existence, our world. This is the second symptom: the substitution of belie
fs for fact and the gradual abandonment of empirical evidence.
Once a society begins exhibiting the first two signsgridlock and the substitution
of beliefs for factsthe stage is set for collapse. Trapped by the forces of an
undertow, every society eventually finds itself desperately railing against co
gnitive limitations in a battle to reach safety until, finally, like a swimmer
insisting on a direct path toward the shore, we grow exhausted and succumb. Whe
n a civilization encounters a cognitive threshold and begins substituting belie
fs for knowledge, the specific calamity that triggers collapse isnt far be- hind
. Whether collapse arrives in the form of drought, a pandemic virus, or war, th
e real culprit is a cognitive threshold that prevents dangerous problems from b
eing rationally understood and acted on. Facts and evidence are set aside in fa
vor of unproven remedy, and this triggers a rapid spiral of catastrophic events.
But heres the reason the relationship between complexity and collapse is impor
tant for humankind to acknowledge at this time: The signs of a cognitive thresh
old begin appearing long before collapse, so there is ample time to act. Lookin
g back, scientists have uncovered a mountain of evidence that Mayan leaders wer
e aware for many centuries of their tenuous dependence on rainfall. Water short
ages were not only understood but also recorded and planned for. The Mayans enf
orced conservation during low rainfall years, tightly regulating the types of c
rops grown, the use of public water, and food rationing. During the first half
of their three-thousand-year reign, the Mayans continued to build larger underg
round reservoirs and cisterns to store rainwater for drought months. As impress
ive as their ornate temples were, their hydraulic systems for collecting and wa
rehousing water were masterpieces in design and engineering.
If Western Civilization does not quickly rediscover morality and faith....it wil
l collapse as did the ancient Mayan civilization.