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2016 Texas Statewide Survey

CONFIDENTIAL DOCUMENT
N=1,000 ADULTS
MOE=+/-3.1 PERCENTAGE POINTS (UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED)
CELL PHONE SUPPLEMENT
BILINGUAL INSTRUMENT/INTERVIEWERS
September 1-11, 2016
Hello. Were conducting a survey on behalf of the Texas Lyceum, a nonprofit, non-partisan organization
focused on public policy issues affecting Texas and the United States.
May I please speak with the person in your home who is 18 or older and who will be having the next birthday?
IF ASK WHY BIRTHDAY SELECTION: This helps us make sure we represent adults living within a household
correctly.
IF NECESSARY: Were interested in your views on several current issues. We would like to include your
responses to this survey, which will be kept absolutely confidential, with the responses of several hundred other
Texans like you. The survey should take about 18 minutes to complete, depending on your answers.
SECTION I:
GENERAL MOOD AND 2016 ELECTION ITEMS
Q1.

Are you registered to vote in the state of Texas?


1.
2.
3.

Q2.

87%
13
1

Generally speaking, would you say that you are extremely interested in politics and public affairs,
somewhat interested, not very interested, or not at all interested?
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

Q3.

Yes, registered.
No, not registered.
DONT KNOW/REFUSED/NA.

Extremely interested.
Somewhat interested.
Not very interested.
Not at all interested.
DONT KNOW/REFUSED/NA.

37%
46
10
6
1

There are many elections in the state of Texas. Furthermore, many people intend to vote in a given
election, but sometimes personal and professional circumstances keep them from the polls. Thinking
back over the past two or three years, would you say that you voted in all elections, almost all, about
half, one or two, or none at all?
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

Every election
Almost every election
About half
One or two
None at all

2016 Texas Lyceum Poll

26%
28
11
15
20
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Q4.

Thinking about the country, do you think things are moving in the right direction or are we off on the
wrong track?
1.
2.
3.

Q5.

Right direction.
Off on the wrong track.
DONT KNOW/REFUSED/NA.

28%
63
9

What do you think is the most important issue facing the country today?
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.

The economy
National security/terrorism
Immigration
Race relations/racial issues
The presidential race
Unemployment/jobs
Health care
Education
Political corruption/leadership
National debt
Crime and drugs
Moving away from Christianity/God
Poverty/Income inequality
Foreign policy
Federal spending/budget deficit
Moral decline
Border security
Social welfare programs
Environment
Polarization/Gridlock/Partisanship
Gun violence/gun control
Police
Barack Obama
Other
Dont know/ NA

2016 Texas Lyceum Poll

15%
9
8
7
6
5
4
4
3
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
11
8

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Q6.

What do you think is the most important issue facing the state of Texas today?
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
23.
24.

Q7.

Immigration
Education
The economy
Border security
Unemployment/jobs
Political corruption/leadership
Health care
Gun violence/gun control
Racism
Crime and drugs
Taxes
Social welfare programs
Water supply
Energy
Environment
Abortion
State courts
Low wages/poverty/cost of living
Republicans/the right wing
Growth/Infrastructure
National Security/Terrorism
Presidential Election
Other
Dont know/ NA

19%
12
6
5
4
3
3
3
3
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
9
19

How well do you think Barack Obama [PRON: BA-ROCK O-BAMA] is handling his job as
president? Is he doing a very good job, somewhat good job, somewhat poor job, or very poor job?
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

Very good job.


Somewhat good job.
Somewhat poor job.
Very poor job.
DONT KNOW / REFUSED / NA

2016 Texas Lyceum Poll

26%
32
13
28
2

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Q7.

Would you say that you approve or disapprove of the job that Greg Abbott is doing as Texas
governor? Would that be somewhat or strongly approve/disapprove?
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

Strongly approve
Somewhat approve
Somewhat disapprove
Strongly disapprove
DONT KNOW / REFUSED / NA

23%
38
11
17
11

Thinking ahead to the 2016 Elections


[Q8A-Q11: ASK ONLY OF REGISTERED VOTERS]
[Likely voters are defined as those respondents who are registered to vote, say that they have voted in
Every or Almost every election on Q3, and are Extremely or Somewhat interested in politics on
Q2]
Q8A. If the 2016 election for president were held today, would you vote for [RANDOMIZE] the
Republican ticket of Donald Trump and Mike Pence, the Democratic ticket of Hillary Clinton and
Tim Kaine, or havent you thought enough about it?
(Among likely voters: n = 502, MOE +/- 4.37%)
1. Trump/Pence
2. Clinton/Kaine
3. Havent thought enough about it
4. DONT KNOW / REFUSED / NA

42%
36
15
6

(Among registered: n = 862, MOE +/- 3.34%)


1. Trump/Pence
2. Clinton/Kaine
3. Havent thought enough about it
4. DONT KNOW / REFUSED / NA

35%
39
18
8

Q8B.

And what if the candidates were [RANDOMIZE] the Republican ticket of Donald Trump and Mike
Pence, the Democratic ticket of Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine, the Libertarian ticket of Gary
Johnson and Bill Weld, the Green Party ticket of Jill Stein, or havent you thought enough about it?

(Among likely voters: n = 502, MOE +/- 4.37%)


1. Trump/Pence
2. Clinton/Kaine
3. Johnson/Weld
4. Stein
5. Havent thought enough about it/Dont know
6. DONT KNOW / REFUSED / NA

39%
32
9
3
14
3

(Among registered: n = 862, MOE +/- 3.34%)


1. Trump/Pence
2. Clinton/Kaine
3. Johnson/Weld
4. Stein
5. Havent thought enough about it/Dont know
6. DONT KNOW / REFUSED / NA

30%
29
10
3
24
3

2016 Texas Lyceum Poll

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Q9.

If the election for representative to the U.S. Congress were held today, would you vote for the
Democratic candidate, the Republican candidate, someone else, or havent you thought enough about
it?

(Among likely voters: n = 502, MOE +/- 4.37%)


1. Democratic Candidate
2. Republican Candidate
3. Someone else
4. Havent thought enough about it/Dont know
5. DONT KNOW / REFUSED / NA

31%
42
6
20
1

(Among registered: n = 862, MOE +/- 3.34%)


1. Democratic Candidate
2. Republican Candidate
3. Someone else
4. Havent thought enough about it/Dont know
5. DONT KNOW / REFUSED / NA

31%
33
8
26
1

Q10.

And if the election for representative to the Texas State House were held today, would you vote for
the Democratic candidate, the Republican candidate, someone else, or havent you thought enough
about it?

(Among likely voters: n = 502, MOE +/- 4.37%)


6. Democratic Candidate
7. Republican Candidate
8. Someone else
9. Havent thought enough about it/Dont know
10. DONT KNOW / REFUSED / NA

31%
39
6
23
1

(Among registered: n = 862, MOE +/- 3.34%)


6. Democratic Candidate
7. Republican Candidate
8. Someone else
9. Havent thought enough about it/Dont know
10. DONT KNOW / REFUSED / NA

31%
32
6
29
1

Q11.

Suppose the Tea Party movement organized itself as a political party. When thinking about the next
election for Congress, would you vote for [Randomize] the Republican candidate from your district,
the Democratic candidate from your district, or the Tea Party candidate from your district?
[Randomize 1-2]

(Among likely voters: n = 502, MOE +/- 4.37%)


1. Republican candidate
2. Democratic candidate
3. Tea Party candidate
4. Dont know

26%
34
14
27

(Among registered: n = 862, MOE +/- 3.34%)


1. Republican candidate
1. Democratic candidate
2. Tea Party candidate
3. Dont know

24%
37
13
27

2016 Texas Lyceum Poll

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Would you say that your feelings towards the following people and groups are generally favorable or
unfavorable? Would that be extremely or just somewhat favorable/unfavorable? [RANDOMIZE Q12-Q19]
(Among registered: n = 862, MOE +/- 3.34%; among likely voters: n = 502, MOE +/- 4.37%)

Q12.
Donald Trump
Q13.
Hillary
Clinton
Q14.
Greg Abbott
Q15.
Dan Patrick
Q16.
Ken Paxton
Q17.
Ted Cruz
Q18.
John Cornyn
Q19.
Barack
Obama

Adults
Registered Voters
Likely Voters
Adults
Registered Voters
Likely Voters
Adults
Registered Voters
Likely Voters
Adults
Registered Voters
Likely Voters
Adults
Registered Voters
Likely Voters
Adults
Registered Voters
Likely Voters
Adults
Registered Voters
Likely Voters
Adults
Registered Voters
Likely Voters

Extremely
favorable
14
15
21
17
17
20
20
23
31
6
7
10
4
4
7
13
13
16
7
8
12
26
27
27

Somewhat
favorable
21
22
25
26
26
19
38
36
34
28
27
33
24
25
28
31
31
29
29
29
35
28
27
19

Somewhat
unfavorable
11
11
7
11
10
7
14
14
13
14
15
11
12
13
13
20
20
19
14
15
17
15
14
13

Extremely
unfavorable
51
49
44
43
44
51
15
15
16
12
13
18
12
13
14
29
29
33
9
9
11
29
30
40

Dont know
3
3
3
3
3
2
13
11
6
40
38
28
48
45
39
8
7
4
41
39
25
2
2
1

Regardless of how you intend to vote for president in 2016, which candidate do you think would do a better
job handling each of the following issues Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump? [RANDOMIZE Q20-Q28]
(Among registered: n = 862, MOE +/- 3.34%; among likely voters: n = 502, MOE +/- 4.37%)

Q20. Immigration
Q21. Terrorism
Q22. The Economy
Q23. Foreign Policy
Q24. Health Care
Q25. The Environment
Q26. Crime
Q27. Education
Q28. Changing the culture of
Washington, D.C.

2016 Texas Lyceum Poll

Hillary
Clinton
49
43
43
55
49
58
40
56
33

Registered Voters
Donald
Dont know
Trump
43
8
46
12
47
10
34
10
41
10
28
14
48
12
33
12
58

13

Hillary
Clinton
42
42
40
49
44
50
37
48
29

Likely Voters
Donald
Trump
50
49
52
42
48
37
53
42
58

Dont
know
7
9
9
9
8
14
10
11
13

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SECTION II:
PERSONAL ECONOMIC PERCEPTIONS
Q29.

Thinking about the national economy, do you think the country is better off, worse off, or about the
same compared to a year ago?
1.
2.
3.
4.

Q30.

Better off.
Worse off.
About the same.
DONT KNOW/REFUSED/NA.

30%
19
50
1

Do you think Texass economy is better off, worse off, or about the same as the rest of the country?
1.
2.
3.
4.

Q32.

29%
34
35
2

Now thinking about you and your familys economic situation, would you say that you are better off,
worse off, or about the same economically compared to a year ago?
1.
2.
3.
4.

Q31.

Better off.
Worse off.
About the same.
DONT KNOW/REFUSED/NA.

Better off
Worse off
About the same
DONT KNOW / REFUSED / NA

60%
11
25
4

Looking ahead to the future, do you think your children will be better off than you are, worse off, or
about the same economically?
1.
2.
3.
4.

Better off
Worse off
About the same
DONT KNOW / REFUSED / NA

42%
29
20
9

SECTION III:
ISSUES & POLICY
Q33.

Some people argue that requiring registered voters to present government-issued photo identification
at the polls reduces voter fraud and does not place major obstacles on anyone who is legally entitled
to vote. Other people argue that such a requirement has a negligible effect on voter fraud but places
significant obstacles on elderly, low-income, disabled, and minority voters. Do you agree or disagree
with the idea that registered voters should be required to present a government issued photo ID at the
polls before they can be allowed to vote?
1.
2.
3.

Q34.

Agree
Disagree
Dont know/No opinion

74%
24
2

As you may know, the Affordable Care Act offers states the opportunity to expand Medicaid to
provide health insurance to more low-income uninsured adults. The federal government would
subsidize this expansion initially, after which Texas taxpayers would have to pay for the expanded
coverage. What do you think Texas should do [RANDOMIZE 1-2]
1.

Keep Medicaid as is

2016 Texas Lyceum Poll

49%
Page 7

2.
3.
Q35.

Their birth gender


Their gender identity
Dont know/Know opinion

54%
31
15

Would you say that immigration helps the United States more than it hurts it, or immigration hurts
the United States more than it helps it?
1.
2.
3.
4.

Q37.

42
9

Which of the following comes closer to your opinion? Transgender students should have access to
public school facilities like restrooms and locker rooms based on... [RADNOMIZE 1-2]
1.
2.
3.

Q36.

Expand Medicaid
Dont know/No opinion

Helps more than it hurts


Hurts more than it helps
A little of both (Vol.)
DONT KNOW / REFUSED / NA

54%
33
8
5

Would you favor or oppose building a wall along the US-Mexico border to try to stop illegal
immigration?
1.
2.
3.

Favor
Oppose
DONT KNOW / REFUSED / NA

2016 Texas Lyceum Poll

35%
59
6

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Q38.

Do you support or oppose a ban on the immigration of any person who lives in a country where there
has been a history of terrorism against the west?
1.
2.
3.

Q39.

40%
51
8

How much have you heard about the debate happening in some cities over whether ride-hailing
services like Uber and Lyft should be regulated in the same way as existing taxi companies?...A lot,
a little, or nothing at all?
1.
2.
3.
4.

Q40.

Support
Oppose
DONT KNOW / REFUSED / NA

A lot
A little
Nothing at all
DONT KNOW / REFUSED / NA

24%
38
33
5

Some cities are currently debating how to best regulate ride-hailing services. Which statement comes
closest to your view on this subject?...[ROTATE STATEMENTS]
These services should be required to follow the same rules and regulations as taxis--it is important
that everyone follow the same rules when it comes to things like pricing, insurance, and disability
access.
or
These services should not be required to follow the same rules and regulations as taxis--it is
important to let companies be innovative and meet the needs of their customers, even if that goes
against existing regulations
1.
2.
3.

Q41.

Should be required to follow the same rules and regulations as taxis


Should not be required to follow the same rules and regulations as taxis
DONT KNOW / REFUSED / NA

54%
35
11

Regardless of how you think ride-hailing services should be regulated, do you think that decision
should take place at the municipal or city level, or in the Texas Legislature?
1.
2.
3.

Municipal or city level


Texas Legislature
DONT KNOW / REFUSED / NA

48%
43
9

[RANDOMIZE Q42-Q43]
Q42.
Was there ever a specific instance in which you felt discriminated against by the police because of
your racial or ethnic background?
1.
2.
3.
Q43.

Yes
No
DONT KNOW / REFUSED / NA

18%
81
1

Was there ever a specific instance in which you felt discriminated against by an employer or a potential
employer because of your racial or ethnic background?
1.
2.
3.

Yes
No
DONT KNOW / REFUSED / NA

2016 Texas Lyceum Poll

22%
77
2
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SECTION V:
DEMOGRAPHICS
Were almost done. The final questions are for statistical purposes
AGEG. In what year were you born?
1.
2.
3.
4.

18-29
30-44
45-64
65+

20%
29
34
17

COUNTY. In which county do you reside?


LOCATE. Would you say you live in an urban area, a suburban area, a small town, or rural area?
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

Urban
Suburban
Small town
Rural
DONT KNOW/REFUSED

23%
38
22
14
3

MARRIED. What is your current marital status?


1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.

Never married
Married
Divorced
Widowed
Separated
DONT KNOW/REFUSED/NA.

27%
56
8
6
2
1

CHILD. How many children are currently living with you?


1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

One
Two
Three
Four or more
None

22%
15
8
4
51

INCOME. What was your total household income for 2012? [READ CATEGORIES]
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.

Less than $15,000


$15,0000-$25,000
$25,000-$40,000
$40,000-$75,000
$75,000-$150,000
More than $150,000
DONT KNOW/REFUSED/NA.

2016 Texas Lyceum Poll

8%
12
14
21
22
9
13

Page 10

EDOFR. What is the highest level of education you completed? [READ CATEGORIES AS NECESSARY]
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.

Less than high school


High school
Some college
College degree
Post-graduate degree (MA, LLD, PhD)
DONT KNOW/REFUSED/NA.

5%
17
28
32
17
1

RELIGION. What is your religious denomination [PRON: DEE-NOM-I-NATION]?


1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.

Protestant
Catholic
Other Christian
Jewish
Muslim, Buddhist, or other non-Christian
Agnostic/Atheist
DONT KNOW/REFUSED

18%
32
31
0
3
7
8

FUND. [IF RELIGION EQ 1] Would you say that you are evangelical, fundamentalist, or born-again?
1.
2.

Yes
No

74%
26

RACE. Would you say that you are


1.
2.
3.
4.

White/Anglo
African American
Hispanic
Other.

46%
12%
36%
6%

LIBCON. Generally speaking, would you say that you are


1.
2.
3.
4.

Liberal
Moderate, or
Conservative.
DONT KNOW/REFUSED

2016 Texas Lyceum Poll

23%
33
40
4

Page 11

PID3. Do you consider yourself to be a Democrat, a Republican, or neither?


1.
2.
3.

Democrat
Independent
Republican

41%
21
38

(Among registered: n = 862, MOE +/- 3.34%)


1. Democrat
42%
2. Independent
17
3. Republican
41
(Among likely voters: n = 502, MOE +/- 4.37%)
1. Democrat
39%
2. Independent
12
3. Republican
50
GENDER. (BY OBSERVATION)
1.
2.

MALE
FEMALE

48%
52

Thank you very much for your time today/ this evening! Have a good day/evening.

2016 Texas Lyceum Poll

Page 12

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