Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Thesis
Submitted to
The School of Engineering of the
UNIVERSITY OF DAYTON
By
Ahmad Murtaza Ershad
Dayton, Ohio
May, 2014
_____________________________
___________________________
_________________________________
Kevin P. Hallinan, Ph.D.
Committee Member
Professor
Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering
_____________________________
___________________________
Copyright by
Ahmad Murtaza Ershad
All rights reserved
2014
ABSTRACT
POTENTIAL OF SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC AND WIND POWER PLANTS IN
MEETING ELECTRICITY DEMAND IN AFGHANISTAN
iv
meaning less reliance on unpredictable and unstable power purchase agreements with
neighboring countries, longer life of limited domestic fossil fuel resources such as coal
and natural gas, and less imports of diesel fuel with rising costs and unfriendly
environmental impacts.
Dedicated to Afghanistan.
vi
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
I would like to thank Dr. Robert J. Brecha, my thesis committee chair and advisor,
for his time and guidance for completing this work. In the meantime, I would also like to
thank Dr. Kevin Hallinan and Dr. Kelly Kissock, my committee members, for their
support, ideas and comments. Not only did they support me academically, they helped me
appreciate the importance of energy in development and applauded me again and again
for my research about Afghanistan.
It is not easy to do research about Afghanistan without getting frustrated due to
lack of adequate and reliable data. However, I was lucky enough to receive some help
from colleagues in Afghanistan. I would like to thank Engineer Haris Haidari of
Sustainable Energy Services Afghanistan (SESA) for providing me with the wind speed
data used in this thesis.
In the end, I would like to appreciate the support of my parents, my fianc and the
rest of my family and friends. I am very happy to have undertaken this research and may
the information presented here be a step toward building an energy independent
Afghanistan.
"And say: My Lord increase me in knowledge." Quran 20:114
vii
TABLE OF CONTENTS
ABSTRACT ....................................................................................................................... iv
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ................................................................................................ vii
TABLE OF CONTENTS ................................................................................................. viii
LIST OF FIGURES ............................................................................................................ x
LIST OF TABLES ........................................................................................................... xiii
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND NOTATIONS ......................................................... xv
1.
2.
INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................... 1
1.1.
Background .......................................................................................................... 1
1.2.
1.3.
RESOURCE QUALITY............................................................................................ 11
2.1. Datasets .................................................................................................................. 11
2.2.
3.
2.2.1.
2.2.2.
2.2.3.
Wind Direction............................................................................................ 25
2.2.4.
Wind Shear.................................................................................................. 26
2.2.5.
2.2.6.
2.3.
2.4.
2.5.
4.
RESOURCE VARIABILITY.................................................................................... 52
4.1.
4.2.
4.3.
5.
6.
CONCLUSION ......................................................................................................... 68
REFERENCES ................................................................................................................. 71
ix
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 16. Wind speed direction as percent of total energy in Uljato (left) ..................... 25
Figure 17. Wind speed direction as percent of total time in Uljato (right) ....................... 25
Figure 18. Wind direction as percent of total energy in Hotel Safid (left) ....................... 26
Figure 19. Wind direction as percent of time in Hotel Safi (right) ................................... 26
Figure 20. Monthly variation of average wind shear coefficient ...................................... 27
Figure 21. Daily variation of average wind shear coefficient ........................................... 28
Figure 22. Uljato wind speed frequency distribution at 50 m........................................... 28
Figure 23. Hotel Safid wind speed frequency distribution at 50 m .................................. 29
Figure 24. Actual and bi-Weibull wind speed distribution frequency .............................. 31
Figure 25. 630 KW wind turbine composite power curve ................................................ 33
Figure 26. Actual and fitted power curve of the 630KW wind turbine ............................ 36
Figure 27. Monthly net capacity factors of Hotel Safid and Uljato win power plants ..... 38
Figure 28. Annual average daily net energy yield of Hotel Safid and Uljato wind power
plants ................................................................................................................................. 38
Figure 29. Monthly global horizontal irradiance (GHI) in Afghanistan ........................... 39
Figure 30. Map of annual global horizontal irradiance (GHI) for Afghanistan................ 40
Figure 31. Annual average monthly GHI at OAMS by various models ........................... 41
Figure 32. Annual average monthly GHI at OAHR by various models ........................... 41
Figure 33. Annual average daily global horizontal irradiance at OAMS and OAHR ...... 42
Figure 34. Monthly net capacity factor for solar PV power plants in Balkh and Herat ... 45
Figure 35. Annual average diurnal AC power output of solar PV power plants in Balkh
and Herat ........................................................................................................................... 46
Figure 36. Load histogram for 2010 and 2011 ................................................................. 49
xi
Figure 37. Kabul province average monthly demand in 2010 and 2011 .......................... 50
Figure 38. Kabul 2010 - 2011 annual average daily demand profile................................ 51
Figure 39. Seasonal variation of intermittent renewables and electricity demand in Balkh
........................................................................................................................................... 54
Figure 40. Seasonal variation of intermittent renewables and electricity demand in Herat
........................................................................................................................................... 54
Figure 41. Annual average daily profile of demand versus wind and solar in Herat ....... 55
Figure 42. Annual average daily profile of demand versus wind and solar in Balkh ....... 55
Figure 43. Residual load duration curves (RLDC) of Herat grid after introducing solar PV
and wind power independently ......................................................................................... 57
Figure 44. Residual load duration curve (RLDC) of Balkh grid after introducing solar PV
and wind power independently ......................................................................................... 57
Figure 45. Residual load duration curves (RLDC) of Balkh and Herat grids after
introducing solar PV and wind power together ................................................................ 58
Figure 46. Balkh wind power penetration......................................................................... 60
Figure 47. Balkh wind power curtailment losses .............................................................. 60
Figure 48. Balkh solar PV power penetration ................................................................... 61
Figure 49. Balkh solar PV power curtailment .................................................................. 61
Figure 50. Herat wind power penetration ......................................................................... 62
Figure 51. Herat wind power curtailment losses .............................................................. 62
Figure 52. Herat solar PV power penetration ................................................................... 63
Figure 53. Herat solar PV power curtailment losses......................................................... 63
xii
LIST OF TABLES
Table 17. Economic parameters used in calculation of electricity generation cost of solar
PV and wind power plants in Balkh and Herat provinces ................................................ 65
Table 18. Net annual energy production and capacity factors of solar PV and wind power
plants in Balkh and Herat .................................................................................................. 65
Table 19. Electricity generation cost of solar PV and wind power plants in Balkh and
Herat .................................................................................................................................. 67
xiv
ACEP
ADP
AEIC
AEP
AFG
AVG
AWEA
CF
GDP
GHI
GIS
GW
IEC
KWH
LCOE
MW
NEPS
NRECA
NREL
OAHR
OAMS
PSMP
PV
PVF
RLDC
TI
TMY
USAID
USD
WB
xv
1.
1.1.
INTRODUCTION
Background
About 1.3 billion people do not have access to electricity in the world and four out
of five of them live in Afghanistan and other developing countries of South Asia and
Sub-Saharan-Africa (REN21, 2013). Worldwide greenhouse gas emissions increased by
70 % between 1970 and 2004 (IPCC, 2007). Fossil fuels are becoming more scarce and
expensive. Electricity demand in Asia and Pacific is projected to more than double
between 2010 and 2035 (ADB, 2013). In the recent years, countries around the world
have felt the need to diversify their power production fuel inputs and adopted renewable
energies in response to challenges mentioned above.
At the same time, rapid growth has been seen in the use of renewable energy
sources for electricity generation across the world. Annual average growth rate of
cumulative installed capacity of solar PV and wind from the end of 2002 through 2012
was 47 % and 25 % respectively (REN21, 2013). Total global renewable power
(excluding hydro) capacity exceeded 480 GW and supplied about 5.2 % of global
electricity in 2012 (REN21, 2013). Total global installed capacity of solar PV and wind
power reached 100 GW and 283 GW respectively by the end of 2012 (REN21, 2013).
China, the United States, Germany, Italy, Spain and India are the top countries for
renewable energy power capacity and renewables represented about 11 % of total
http://nzakariah18gi.blogspot.com/2012/08/background-to-breadwinner.html
about five times more electrical energy than was produced in 2011. Only 28 % of the
population was connected to electricity grid and this number is projected to reach to
about 83 % by 2032 (Fichtner, 2013).
Afghanistan so far does not have an interconnected centralized power system,
however, interconnection of all grid segments is proposed by year 2032 (Fichtner, 2013).
In addition, there are many decentralized local grids and stand-alone systems such as
solar PV and diesel generators providing electricity. Installed capacity (not operating
capacity) of existing grid-connected electricity generation assets reaches about 1,338
MW including imports from Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Iran and Turkmenistan. Imports
account for about 63 % of total grid-connected capacity, while hydro power and thermal
(diesel-fired) power plants make up the rest each having about the same share. Currently
about 134 MW of decentralized power generators are installed around the country mostly
in rural areas, more than half of which is diesel generators. 13 MW of solar PV, 36.65
MW of micro-hydro power and about 200 KW of wind power make up the rest of Afghan
decentralized generating capacity (MEW , 2013).
Figure 2 shows the share of each energy source in the Afghan power system in
2011. Total generation was recorded to be 3,088 GWh (AEIC, 2012). Imports made up
about 73 % of total generation. The majority of imported power was thermal-based with
some hydropower from Tajikistan. Domestic hydropower and diesel fired power plants
each contributed 26 % and 1.3 % respectively. The share of diesel power plants could be
higher due to missing and incomplete data.
A majority of existing and planned hydropower plants use day storage rather than
run-of-the river generation (Fichtner, 2013). The main hydro plants with day storage are
Naghlu (100 MW) and Mahipar (66 MW). Examples of run-of-the river hydro plants are
Grishk (2.4 MW) and Puli-Khomri (8.2 MW). Thermal power plants are mainly
reciprocating engines run by diesel fuel. The only two gas turbine generators are NW
Kabul 21.8 MW and NW Kabul 23 MW.
1.2.
Literature Review
Stand-alone off-grid solar and wind energy technologies have thus far been seen
MW solar PV plant with battery storage in the central province of Bamyan. Here we
review some of the main studies regarding the potential of large scale solar PV or wind
power plants in Afghanistan.
NREL published a 1km resolution wind map at 50 m for Afghanistan in 2007 to
quantify wind resource potential and identify possible locations for further on-site wind
measurement campaigns (NREL, 2007). The dataset includes average monthly wind
speeds together with statistical parameters such as wind power density, Weibull shape
factor, windiest hour, diurnal strength, and the autocorrelation factor for each 1 km2 grid
in Afghanistan. The above mentioned parameters are sufficient to calculate hourly wind
speed for a site. However, wind direction, turbulence, and temperature are not included.
This dataset is not sufficient to model the energy production of a wind farm since wind
speed varies over small distances and terrains. The accuracy of modeled data is in the
range of 20% due to lack of extensive field data as inputs to the model and
Afghanistans complex terrain. NRELs estimates showed a total resource potential of
about 158 GW.
Relative to solar energy, NREL also produced high-resolution satellite-derived
global horizontal and direct normal irradiance data for Afghanistan (NREL, 2007). The
datasets are in a gridded format and have a ground resolution of 0.1 degrees latitude and
0.1 degrees longitude (8.5 km x 10 km). Irradiance datasets include monthly averages
over a three year period from 2002 to 2005.
In another study, Tetra Tech used multi-criteria geographic information system
(GIS) analysis to identify the best sites for future installation of wind measurement
instruments for wind farm development and their respective installed capacities and
capacity factors (TETRA TECH, 2009). The study identified a total of 10 sites, located in
Herat (3), Balkh (5) and Kabul provinces (2). The study used NRELs modeled wind
resource maps, available GIS data, and measured wind speed data from Panjsher Valley
to determine the technical and economic potential of these sites. Calculations are
performed on an annual basis and do not study seasonal and daily characteristics of wind
resource. In addition, the study does not cover demand characteristics of the provinces
and whether the wind generation profile matches the demand profile. The total economic
potential of these sites was estimated to be 1.045 GW of installed capacity.
NRECA International evaluated the response of transmission networks in Balkh
and Herat provinces to carry hypothetical levels of wind penetration and determined the
maximum installed capacity in Mega Watts (MW) of wind farms without disrupting the
quality of the supplied power to the customers (NRECA , 2010).
assuming hypothetical wind farm capacities was lack of wind resource characterization
and daily profiles. The demand profile of Kabul was used to model daily demand profiles
in Herat and Balkh provinces. Criteria for the determination of the maximum capacity of
wind farms were an installed capacity of no more than 80 % of the minimum grid
demand, voltage stability at specified levels during short-term wind farm output
fluctuations, prevention of overloaded facilities and respecting limits of reactive power at
all generators. Results showed that Balkh and Herat power systems could handle wind
power plant installed capacities of up to 85 MW and 16.5 MW respectively if these
systems were to be upgraded.
constraint was applied for solar radiation. The study did not include economic or market
potential analysis.
Finally, Fichtner concluded in Afghanistan Power Sector Master Plan (PSMP)
that solar PV and wind power plants could not achieve high penetration levels in the
existing and future power system and their role in the mix of grid-connected power
generation is said to be minimal (Fichtner, 2013). Fichtner recommends developing
distributed hybrid wind, solar and diesel power plants and off-grid solar home systems to
meet the demand mainly in rural areas.
1.3.
Research Objective
The purpose of this study is to analyze the potential of solar PV and wind power
plants in Balk and Herat Provinces, two of the most promising provinces for future
renewable power generation. Western Herat and Eastern Balkh are said to be two of the
major wind resource areas in the country (NREL, 2007). In addition to wind, these
provinces have excellent solar resource. Other factors that make these provinces very
attractive to renewable energy deployment are their relatively high electricity demand,
well developed power systems, heavy reliance on imported power and proximity to the
western and northern borders.
The potential for solar PV and wind power plants is analyzed by quantifying
resource quality, variability and cost of energy generation. Quality is quantified in section
two by characterizing solar and wind energy resources and plant capacity factors and
energy yields. Section three analyzes electricity demand and how it changes on a daily
and seasonal basis.
9
Using data from sections two and three, variability (section four) is analyzed
using three different methodologies. First, seasonal and diurnal profiles of power output
from wind and solar PV power plants are correlated with temporal electricity demand
profiles analyzed in section 4.1. Second, the impacts of power supply from solar PV and
wind on various types of loads2 such as peak, cyclic and baseload are studied by creating
residual load duration curves (RLDC) explained in section 4.2. Third, variability is
measured in terms of curtailment and penetration. Curtailment is associated with times
when the total capacity including that coming from renewable sources exceeds demand,
and penetration refers to the fraction of total energy provided by renewable energy.
Section 4.3 describes our effort to estimate penetration and curtailment levels of three
solar PV and wind power plant sizes (50 MW, 100 MW, and 150 MW) interconnected to
grid segments with varying peak loads (200 MW, 300 MW, 400 MW and 500 MW).
Finally, cost of energy generated from solar PV and wind power plants is
determined in section five and the thesis is concluded in section six.
Refer to (Ueckerdt, Brecha, & Luderer, 2014) in the References section for more detail on types of loads
10
2.
RESOURCE QUALITY
2.1. Datasets
Historical measured wind and solar data is very limited in Afghanistan. In 2012,
the ACEP funded by the USAID conducted a wind monitoring campaign to measure
wind data for a period of 12 months for commercial applications at an appropriate height.
Six sites (Table 1) were selected using NRELs modeled wind resource maps and other
important criteria for wind farm siting such as proximity to transmission lines. Tenminute interval wind speed and wind direction data at 30 m, 40m and 50 m elevations
were collected for a period of one year in 2012 at each potential site. In addition, air
temperature at 3 m and global horizontal solar radiation were also measured.
For the purpose of this study, the wind resource at Hotel Safid for Herat Province
and Uljato for Balkh Province are characterized and later used for wind plant power
output calculations. These two sites have the highest annual average wind speed among
the monitored sites and are in the proximity of the sites selected for further measurement
by a previous study (TETRA TECH, 2009).
11
Station
Location
Province
Hotel Safid
Urdu Khan
Uljato
Sari-Tangi
Naghlu
Jabal Seraj
Herat
Herat
Balkh
Balkh
Kabul
Parwan
Latitude
()
34.4054
34.3126
36.7212
36.6278
34.6220
35.1255
Longitude Elevation
Time Zone
()
(m)
61.8226
62.2677
67.6222
67.6994
69.6959
69.2348
958
958
385
1012
1199
1199
+ 4 30
+ 4 30
+ 4 30
+ 4 30
+ 4 30
+ 4 30
Collected data were validated by comparing them with allowable upper and lower
limiting values called range tests (AWS Scientific, 1997). Table 2 shows ranges of two
main parameters used in the test. No problems were observed with the data. Table 3
shows details of the dataset properties for Uljato and Hotel Safid.
Wind Speed
12
to measure the data. Table 4 shows the operating ranges and accuracy of measurement
sensors.
Variable
Latitude
Longitude
Elevation
Height of Measurement
Start Date
End Date
Duration
2012 Data Recovered
Length of Time step
Mean Temperature
Uljato
N 36.7212
E 67.62222
385 m
50 m, 40m, 30m, 3m
1/1/2012 0:00
1/1/2013 0:00
12 months
99.73% (Including 2/29)
10 minutes
18.7 C
Hotel Safid
N 34.4054
E 61.8226
958 m
50 m, 40m, 30m, 3m
1/17/2012 0:00
1/16/2013 0:00
12 months
95.36 % (Including 2/29)
10 minutes
18.8 C
1.157 kg/m3
1.081 kg/m3
Parameter
Wind Speed @ 50 m
Wind Direction @ 50 m
Temperature
Global Horizontal
Irradiance
Sensor Type
NRG #40 Maximum
Anemometer
NRG #200P Wind
Direction Vane
NRG#110 S
Li-Cor #Li 200SA
Pyranometer
Operating Range
1 m/s - 96 m/s
0 - 360
-40 C to 52.5 C
0 - 3000 W/m2
Accuracy
0.14 m/s 0.45 m/s
8 maximum
1.1 C
2 %
temperature from the Uljato wind monitoring station for comparison reasons. Measured
solar radiation data from Hotel Safid included errors due to the malfunctioning of
installed Pyranometer and is not used in calculations.
2.2.
Table 5. Uljato and Hotel Safid annual average measured wind speeds in 2012
14
Figure 4. Seasonal variation of wind speed and standard deviation in Hotel Safid at 50 m
height
Sites with higher wind speed in the winter are ideal for Afghanistan since
electricity demand is highest and hydropower generation is lowest. Uljato experiences
windier winter season than Hotel Safid. Long-term wind speed data from Mazar-e-Sharif
Airport (OAMS) and Herat Airport (OAHR) show that summers are windier than
15
winters. Figures 5 and 6 show the difference between measured wind speeds in Uljato
and Hotel Safid and data measured at their nearest airports. Annual average wind speed
in Afghanistan is said to be 6.5 m/s with a maximum of 10.2 m/s and a minimum of 3.7
m/s (NREL, 2007).
16
It is important to notice that the above graphs do not show a typical behavior of
monthly variation at these sites since monthly average wind speeds change significantly
from year to year. Figure 7 shows changes in 3 year average monthly variation of wind
speed for Mazar-e-Sharif which is about 50 kilometers west of Uljato site. This location
experiences a fairly constant speed with a minimum in fall.
Inter-annual variations in wind speed can have a huge impact in long-term energy
production of wind turbines. Thus, it is important to understand and determine the longterm annual average wind speed in Uljato and Hotel Safid sites. It takes at least 5 years to
come up with a reliable annual average wind speed. However, using one year data is
enough to determine the long-term average wind speed within an accuracy of 10 % with a
confidence level of 90 % (Manwell, McGowan, & Rogers, 2009).
Figure 7. Changes in monthly average wind speeds in OAMS for the period from 2011 to
2013
17
A typical diurnal variation in wind speed shows an increase during the day and a
decrease during the night (Manwell, McGowan, & Rogers, 2009). However, wind speeds
in Uljato and Hotel Safid do not seem to depend strongly on time of the day. As shown in
Figure 8, annual average variation of daily wind speed in Uljato is within 10 % of its
peak while in Hotel Safid it is within 30 %. Uljato experiences multiple peaks while
Hotel Safid seem to peak at around 5 p.m.
Figure 8. Hotel Safid and Uljato annual average daily wind speed profile
Diurnal pattern strengths for these sites are calculated by fitting a cosine function
to their annual average diurnal profiles. Equation 1 (Lambart, 2004) shows the fitted
cosine function.
2
18
Using NRELs HOMER software and measured time-series wind speed data at 50
meters, diurnal pattern strengths of 0.00711 and 0.0705 are obtained for Uljato and Hotel
Safid respectively. Typical measured values for US cities range from 0 to 0.4 (Lambart,
2004) and modeled value for all of Afghanistan is assumed to be 0.15 (NREL, 2007).
The lower the value the less wind speed depends on time of the day. According to NREL
wind maps and airport data, 5 p.m. is the hour of peak wind in the most of the regions in
the country while some western regions experience a peak at 3 a.m. Figures 9 and 10
show diurnal variation of wind speed in Uljato and Hotel Safid and at their nearest
airports.
19
Figure 10. Daily profile of measured wind speed in Hotel Safid and OAHR
With regard to seasons, typical diurnal variations are highest in summer and
spring and lowest in winter (Manwell, McGowan, & Rogers, 2009). As shown in Figure
11 and 12, diurnal variation in wind speed is much higher during the months of April
through October in Hotel Safid. Wind in Uljato doesnt follow a specific seasonal pattern.
Figure 11. Seasonal variation of wind speed diurnal profile in Hotel Safid
20
To understand how wind speed in one hour depends on the wind speed in the
previous hour, autocorrelation functions of the data are created. Figure 13 shows the
autocorrelation function of the hourly wind speed data measured in Uljato and Hotel
Safid. The autocorrelation factor, a parameter showing whether the wind speed is random
or dependent on the previous values, is calculated using Equation 2 (Lambert, 2004) as
shown below
1
=1 ( ) (+1 )
1 =
(2)
2
=1( )
In the above equation 1 is the autocorrelation between two time series wind
speed data separated by one hour, N is the number of time series data which is 8760, is
annual average wind speed in m/s. Autocorrelation factors for Uljato and Hotel Safid are
calculated to be 0.926 and 0.943 respectively. Typical values for sites with complex
topography are 0.70 0.80 and 0.90-0.97 for sites with uniform topography (Lambert,
2004). Uljato and Hotel Safid both have uniform topography.
21
One could also notice the daily pattern of wind speeds at Hotel Safid and Uljato
by looking at the autocorrelation function plot. Afternoons tend to be windier and wind
speed is autocorrelated strongly at shorter lags but not significantly less correlated at
longer ones. This characteristic of wind speed is very important in predicting the wind
power plant output for grid management.
Diurnal variations could change from year to year. Although gross features of the
diurnal cycle can be depicted by one year of data, other details such as the amplitude of
oscillation of this cycle cannot be understood precisely (Manwell, McGowan, & Rogers,
2009).
Figure 13. Autocorrelation function of measured wind speed in Hotel Safid and Uljato
22
need to be quantified for a site for purposes such as turbine structural stability, control
and operation issues. To quantify turbulence, the turbulence intensity (TI) of the site
needs to be determined. Turbulence Intensity is the ratio of the standard deviation of
wind speed to mean wind speed (Manwell, McGowan, & Rogers, 2009). Turbulence
intensity affects a wind turbines mechanical and structural performance. Thus, wind
turbines are designed to work best in a specific turbulence range. International Electrical
Commission (IEC) standard 61400-1 defines four turbulence categories as shown in
Table 6 based on mean turbulence intensities at wind speed of 15 m/s, and wind turbine
manufacturers rate their devices accordingly.
Category Mean TI at 15 m/s
S
>0.16
0.14-0.16
0.12-0.14
0-0.12
23
during the day. Figures 14 and 15 show seasonal and diurnal variations of turbulence
intensity at both sites.
24
Figure 16. Wind speed direction as percent of total energy in Uljato (left)
Figure 17. Wind speed direction as percent of total time in Uljato (right)
25
Figure 18. Wind direction as percent of total energy in Hotel Safid (left)
Figure 19. Wind direction as percent of time in Hotel Safi (right)
2
log10 1
2
log10 1
(3)
26
stations. Both sites experienced a higher wind shear coefficient during the night on a
daily basis and during winter on a seasonal basis. Figures 20 and 21 show seasonal and
diurnal variations of wind shear coefficient for both sites.
H (m)
50
40
30
50/40=
40/30=
50/30=
ave=
Hotel
Safid
V(m/s)
6.35
9.10
6.05
8.84
5.75
8.60
0.22
0.13
0.18
0.09
0.19
0.11
Uljato
0.20
0.11
27
28
Windograph software is used to find the best fit to the histograms of wind speed
distribution. Maximum likelihood algorithm as shown in Equations 4 and 5 (Seguro &
Lambert, 2000) was chosen in Windograph to calculate Weibull shape factor k and the
scale factor c for both sites.
=(
=1 ln()
=1
=1 ln() 1
) (4)
1
= ( ) (5)
=1
Where vi is the wind speed and n is the number of nonzero wind speed data points. Table
8 shows the results of calculations for both sites. An average Weibull shape factor for
Afghanistan is modeled to be 1.7 and has a range of 1.1 to 2.54 (NREL, 2007).
29
Parameter
Weibull Shape Factor
Weibull Scale Factor
R-square
Uljato
1.51
6.99
0.93625
Hotel Safid
1.76
10.17
0.83842
Surprisingly, the wind speed at these sites as seen in the above frequency graphs
peak twice. This type of wind regime is not very typical but seen in places where summer
and winter winds are very different (Burton, Sharp , Jenkins, & Bossanyi, 2001). This
type of wind regime is better modeled by a bi-Weibull frequency distribution function
with different scale and shape factors in two seasons. The shape factors k1 and k2
together with scale factors c1 and c2 and coefficients f1 and f2 are determined using
Equation 6 as shown below
(1 1)
= 1 ( )
1
( )
1
(1 )
(( )
)
1
(2 1)
+2 ( )
2
( )
(2 )
(( )
)
(6)
The curve-fitting tool in Matlab was used to determine the parameters mentioned
above to find the best fit for the wind speed distribution. Table 9 shows the calculated
parameters with the R-squared of the regression. Figure 24 shows the measured
distribution together with the corresponding bi-Weibull distribution.
30
Table 9. Bi-Weibull parameters for wind speeds at 50 m in Uljato and Hotel Safid
31
under class 4 wind resource. Wind power densities at all heights in Hotel Safid are
considered Excellent and fall under class 6 and 7. Wind class 4 and above are deemed
appropriate for wind farm development (NREL, 2007).
Height (m)
Uljato
Hotel Safid
WPD (W/m2)
30
40
273
317
682
741
50
357
70
426
798
879
Table 10. Hotel Safid and Uljato wind power densities at 30 m, 40 m and 50 m height
2.3.
by converting time-series wind speed data to power output of wind turbines. Only one
wind speed measurement is used to characterize the plant output at Uljato and Hotel Safid
sites. This is an appropriate assumption since areas surrounding these measurement
towers are pretty flat with similar topography for multiple turbines to be installed and the
size of these plants if ever built would not be very big.
Power output of the potential wind farms is modeled using 10 minute-interval
wind speed, wind direction and air temperatures, together with the composite power
curve of a 630 KW wind turbine with a rotor diameter of 48 m as shown in Figure 25.
The composite power curve is created using power curves from commercial pitchregulated wind turbines in the range of 275 kW 1 MW which are deemed feasible for
installation in Afghanistan (TETRA TECH, 2009). Each turbines power output was
32
averaged over a 0.5 m/s wind speed bin and the averaging process was performed over a
range of air densities. The turbine has cut-in, rated and cut-out wind speeds of 3 m/s, 15
m/s, and 25 m/s, respectively.
The process of converting time-series wind speed into power output starts with
calculating the wind speed at the desired turbine hub height. Output at 70 m hub height is
calculated for Uljato and Hotel Safid wind farms to increase energy capture. Wind speed
at 50 m height is converted to wind speeds at 70 m using power law (Equation 3) with
wind shear coefficients of 0.2 and 0.1 for Uljato and Hotel Safid respectively.
2
2 = 1 [ ]
1
Where v1 and v2 are wind speeds at 50 m and 70 m, h1 =50 m and h2 =70 m and is the
wind shear coefficient.
Next, wind speed is adjusted to account for the difference in local and standard air
densities. This adjustment is necessary when using turbine power curves developed for
33
air density at seal level of o = 1.22g kg/m3. Equation 7 (AWS Scientific, 1997) is used
to calculate 10-min average air density for the wind farm sites from measured air
temperature assuming a standard sea level air pressure.
353.05
10 = (
10
) ()0.034 (7)
(Kg/m3)
Where:
z is the site elevation above sea level (m)
T is 10-min average air temperature (K)
Equation 8 (Wan, Ela, & Orwig, 2010) is used to adjust the wind speeds at 70 m
hub height for air density
1
10 3
= 10 (
) (8)
0
Where:
10 is the 10 min-average air density calculated from measured air temperature
10 is the 10 min-average measured wind speed in m/s
0 is the sea level air density equal to 1.225 kg/m3
Annual average wind speed at 70 m is reduced about 1.8 % in Uljato and 4.5 % in
Hotel Safid when adjusted for local air density. Higher loss in Hotel Safid is due to its
higher elevation.
34
Next, the wind speed is adjusted for wake losses as a function of wind direction
relative to the prevailing wind direction. This method is developed by AWS Truewind
based on actual data from wind farms installed in the United States. Although, wake
losses very much depend on wind farm layout, local topography and wind regimes, these
estimates will be appropriate for Uljato and Hotel Safid farms. Equation 9 (AWS
Truewind, 2009) is used to calculate wake loss for each 10 min-interval wind speed.
10 = + ( ) sin(10 )2 (9)
Where:
is the minimum assumed wake loss when the wind direction is aligned or opposite
to the prevailing wind direction. It is assumed to be 4 %.
is the maximum assumed wake loss when the wind direction is perpendicular to the
prevailing wind direction. It is assumed to be 9 %.
10 is the 10 min average measured wind direction
is the prevailing wind direction from the north direction. It is 90 degrees in Uljato
and 225 degrees in Hotel Safid.
Loss factors estimated using the above equation also accounts for such losses as
blade soiling and icing. In addition, the above equation is developed to estimate wake
losses in sites where there is only one prevailing wind direction or the most frequent wind
direction is the same as the most energy-producing one. In Uljato the most frequent wind
direction (east) is opposite to the most energy producing direction (west). In Hotel Safid,
both directions are the same (southwest). Average wake loss for both sites is about 5 %.
35
To convert the air density and wake adjusted time-series wind speeds into 10mintue average power yield in MWh/MW of wind farm installed capacity, the composite
power curve of the 630 KW wind turbine is converted to a continuous function of wind
speed. A 3rd degree polynomial curve was fitted to the binned data for the region from the
cut-in wind speed of 3 m/s to the rated wind speed of 15 m/s (Figure 26). The fitted
equation gives power values more than 630 KW in the range of 13 m/s to 14.5 m/s. To
avoid this, the rated wind speed is moved to 13 m/s instead of 15 m/s. The following
piece-wise equation (Equation 10) is obtained with a R2 of 99 %.
0
1.2465 ()^3 + 31.956 ()^2 178.46 () + 297.86
() =
{
630
0
< 3 /
3 < 13 /
(10)
13 / 25 /
> 25 /
Figure 26. Actual and fitted power curve of the 630KW wind turbine
range of turbulence intensities of the power curve is not available and both sites have
relatively low annual average turbulence intensities. Other losses such as electrical losses
and wind turbine and grid unavailability losses are applied to the final power output.
Table 11 summarizes calculated and assumed losses for Uljato and Hotel Safid wind
farms.
Loss Category
Uljato
Hotel Safid
Wake effects
5.0%
4.4%
Density adjustment
2.0%
4.2%
Electrical3
3.0%
3.0%
13.0%
13.0%
21.43%
22.7%
Availability4
Total
Table 11. Calculated and assumed wind farm losses for Hotel Safid and Uljato
Final results include hourly average power output and annual average net AC
wind power and net capacity factors for Hotel Safid and Uljato wind farms. Table 12
shows net annual energy production (AEP) and net capacity factor for both sites. Table
12 also gives typical annual capacity factors of wind power plants around the world (IEA,
2013). Figure 27 and 28 show seasonal variation of net capacity factors and annual
average daily net energy yield of both wind farms.
Development of Eastern Regional Wind Resource and Wind Plant Output Datasets by AWS Truewind
2010
4
Development of Wind Energy Meteorology and Engineering for Siting and Design of Wind Energy
Projects in Afghanistan by TETRA TECH 2009
3
37
Site
Hotel Safid
3,709
42.4
Uljato
2,418
27.6
1,752-3,066
20-35
World Typical
Table 12. Net annual energy production and capacity factors for Hotel Safid and Uljato
wind power plants and typical capacity factor around the world
Figure 27. Monthly net capacity factors of Hotel Safid and Uljato win power plants
Figure 28. Annual average daily net energy yield of Hotel Safid and Uljato wind power
plants
38
2.4.
meter of horizontal surface on a clear day with a standard deviation of 0.42 kWh. This
corresponds to an annual average Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) of 1,935 kWh/m2.
National average seasonal maximum and minimum GHI are 7.84 kWh/m2/day and 2.38
kWh/m2/day. Figure 29 shows seasonal variation of GHI for Afghanistan (NREL, 2007).
Annual GHI for Herat and Balkh provinces are 1726 kWh/m2 and 1967 kWh/m2
respectively. Figure 30 shows resource map of GHI for Afghanistan.
Tables 13 and 14 show daily and annual average GHI data for OAMS and OAHR.
In addition, for comparison reasons, measured GHI from the Uljato site, which is about
40 km east of OAMS, is also given. Modeled data agree well with measured data.
39
Figure 30. Map of annual global horizontal irradiance (GHI) for Afghanistan
SOLAR RADIATION
SUNY Model
4.69
4.83
4.86
4.82
4.80
1,713
1,763
1,773
1,759
1,751
SUNY Model
(kWh/m2/day)
HERAT TMY
(kWh/m2/day)
5.378
5.041
5.520
5.383
1,963
1,840
2,015
1,965
SOLAR RADIATION
40
surface in Herat (OAHR) and Mazar-e-Sharif (OAMS) International Airports. 740 W/m2
and 664 W/m2 are annual average peaks in OAHR and OAMS at noon.
41
Figure 33. Annual average daily global horizontal irradiance at OAMS and OAHR
2.5.
PV array outputs. Hourly gross DC (Pgdc) output (accounting for effects of cell
temperature) of a fixed 1000 KWdc PV array made up of 250 W Sharp NU-Q250W4
panels with a 15.3 % efficiency facing south tilted at an angle equal to the latitude of
OAHR (34.217 N) and OAMS (36.7 N) is calculated using TMY datasets from
OAMS and OAHR.
Pgdc in KWdc is then converted to net AC (Pacn) output after applying an overall
derate factor of 77 % which is NRELs old (before 2014) default value for grid connected
PV systems with crystalline modules and is a good approximate for conditions in
Afghanistan. Loss from shading is not included. Derate factor account for PV module
nameplate derate, mismatch of PV modules in the array, DC and AC wiring losses,
diodes and connections, soiling, availability and interconnection losses such as inverter
and transformer. For a detailed proportion of losses from each category, refer to PVWatts
42
website5. More details on how SAM calculates incident radiation on the plane of array
from horizontal radiation and cell temperature to account for temperature coefficient of
power are given in the Help section of the software.
Net AC output of a PV array using measured hourly GHI and ambient
temperature in 2012 from Uljato is calculated for a similar fixed 1000 KW dc PV system
installed at latitude tilt (36.7 N) facing south using procedures adopted by NRELs
PVWatts hourly simulation model. Hourly incident radiation on the tilted surface from
measured global radiation is calculated using Homers time-series import option. Homer
uses algorithms developed by Erbs, Klein and Duffie (1982) to estimate the horizontal
diffuse and beam portions of the GHI to model plane of the array radiation.
Next, the cell temperature is calculated using Equation 11 (Messenger & Ventre,
2003) to account for DC power loss or gain due to an increase or decrease in temperature
of PV cells from the reference cell temperature at Standard Test Conditions (STC) of 25
C. The temperature coefficient of power is taken -0.5 % /C.
20
= + (
) (11)
0.8
Where
Gt = the incident solar radiation on the tilted surface of the array (W/m2)
Ta = the ambient temperature in C
TNOCT = the nominal operating cell temperature of the PV module and is 49 C for most
PV modules
5
http://pvwatts.nrel.gov/pvwatts.php
43
Cell temperatures are then used to calculate gross DC output (Pgdc) using the
Equations 12 and 13 as shown below
0 (1 + ( ))
1000
0.008
2 0 (1 + ( ))
1000
> 125
(12)
2
125
(13)
2
Where
Pdco = the installed DC capacity (KW)
= the temperature coefficient for power taken -0.5 %/C
Tcell = the cell temperature in C
Tref =standard test condition (STC) reference temperature of 25 C
To calculate net AC output, an overall derate factor of 77 % is applied to gross
DC output (Pgdc). Further procedures include decomposing the overall derate factor to
pre-inverter and inverter losses to account for inverter part-load efficiencies. These steps
are explained in Help section of PVWatts Calculator6. Table 15 shows annual net energy
yields and net capacity factors for solar PV power plants. Each system requires about
16,000 m2 of land. Table 15 also gives typical annual capacity factors of solar PV power
plants around the world (IEA, 2013).
http://pvwatts.nrel.gov/pvwatts.php
44
Site
OAHR
OAMS
Uljato
World Typical
AEP (MWh/MW)
1,482
1,339
1,260
CF (%)
17
15.3
14.4
876-1,752
10-20
Table 15. Net annual energy production and capacity factors for Hotel Safid and Uljato
solar PV power plants and typical capacity factor around the world
The PV array in Herat produces about 10 % higher energy than the one in Balkh
due to higher solar resource. The difference in energy production of Balkh PV arrays
could be due to modeling approaches like the variable inverter efficiency. Figures 34 and
35 show monthly net capacity factors and annual average diurnal AC output of the PV
arrays respectively. Maximum energy yield at noon in Herat and Balkh are determined to
be 0.57 MWh/MW and 0.51 MWh/MW of installed capacity respectively.
Figure 34. Monthly net capacity factor for solar PV power plants in Balkh and Herat
45
Figure 35. Annual average diurnal AC power output of solar PV power plants in Balkh
and Herat
46
3.
ELECTRICITY DEMAND
47
interconnected in the future and the single demand profile would be created dominated by
Kabul consumption as Kabul is by far the most populous region in the country.
An Average Demand Profile (ADP) is created using Kabul demand data from
2010 and 2011 to be used in the analyses in section 4. Hourly demand data from each
year are normalized to the peak value and averaged over both years for all 8,760 hours in
a year. Thus, for a given peak demand, the ADP is scaled to obtain the corresponding
hourly demand data. The minimum load of ADP is 19% of its peak demand. A gross load
factor (since demand data used is in the form of gross power plant production) of 55% is
achieved when using the ADP as a demand profile. To better understand ADP, temporal
characteristics and other parameters of Kabul demand during 2010 and 2011 is explained
in sections 3.1 and 3.2.
48
Parameter
2011
2010
Average (MWh/d)
4,249
3,345
Average (MW)
177
139
Peak (MW)
335
248
Minimum (MW)
20
6
Load Factor
52.90% 56.20%
Table 16. Kabul Province demand statistics and load factor in 2010 and 2011
Figure 36 shows a load histogram for both years. 50-60 % of the time the load
was between 25 to 30 % of the peak for both years. Loads less than 10 % of the annual
peak happen only for 1 hour in 2010 and 2 hours in 2011.
49
August and is about 63 % of overall peak. Summer peaks in Herat and Balkh are about 82
% and 87 % of annual peak respectively. Figure 37 shows annual average monthly
demand for 2010 and 2011 in Kabul. The month with the highest annual average demand
was December both in 2010 and 2011. Lowest electricity consumption is noticed during
the months of May and September in Kabul with May being the overall minimum.
Figure 37. Kabul province average monthly demand in 2010 and 2011
3.2.
Diurnal Profile
The load profile in Kabul Province is bimodal. This characteristics is observed
thoughout the year. On average the hours with the highest electricity demand in 2011
were 8 a.m. and 8 p.m.. The hour with the lowest demand was 2 a.m. Figure 38 shows
2010 and 2011 normalized daily load profiles for Kabul. Demand dependancy on day of
the week is assumed to be minimal since electricity is consumed mosty for ligting,
cooking and heating as seen from the time of daily peak. Minimum average daily demand
in 2011 was about 53 % of daily peak. This figure was about 47 % in 2010. Minimum
50
daily load is higher in Herat and Balkh provinces since these provinces have higher load
factors.
Figure 38. Kabul 2010 - 2011 annual average daily demand profile
51
4.
RESOURCE VARIABILITY
The capacity of wind and solar power plants depends highly on the correlation of
availability of wind and solar with power demand, flexibility of other units in the system,
available storage and interconnection and the share of variable renewables. The goal of
this section is to quantify the variability of wind and solar resources in Balkh and Herat
provinces by 1) comparing their daily and seasonal profiles with ADP 2) analyzing their
impacts on load duration curves and 3) determining their penetration and curtailment
levels under various peak demands using ADP.
4.1.
(October through March) than summer (April through September). This period of high
demand does not coincide with the strongest period of the wind resource in Herat or with
peak solar radiation anywhere in the country. However, the wind resource in Uljato for
the months of October through March is higher than April through September which
closely matches the demand. In addition to wind and solar resources, the Afghan hydro
resource also peaks in the spring and early summer months. On average, existing and
future hydropower plants produce 100 of their rated power capacity in the months of May
and June with the lowest production coming in January (Fichtner, 2013).
52
Figures 39 and 40 show seasonal variations of potential wind and solar PV power
plants together with electricity demand and hydro power plants. Seasonal production
profile (% of nameplate capacity) of Salma (Herat) and Mahipar (Kabul) hydropower
plants are compared with solar and wind power profiles in Balkh and Herat respectively.
Of the three power plant types, solar PV experiences the least seasonal variation, while
hydro experiences the most. This is true for Herat as well. Hotel Safid wind power
complements Salma hydropower supply pretty well since hydro power peaks during
March through June, while wind power peaks during June through August.
On a daily basis, electricity demand is highest in the evenings with another lower
peak in the mornings. Hotel Safid and Uljato wind farms would produce more power in
the mornings than evenings during the months of November through March. During
summer, a period of high wind power occurs during mid-day through the evening. This
difference in winter and summer winds causes the wind resource to not depend on time of
day during a year. Power output of solar PV plants plays little role in meeting peak daily
demand since the peak demand occurs during the evenings. Figure 41 and 42 depicts
daily profiles of demand versus power production of solar PV and wind plants.
53
Figure 39. Seasonal variation of intermittent renewables and electricity demand in Balkh
Figure 40. Seasonal variation of intermittent renewables and electricity demand in Herat
54
Figure 41. Annual average daily profile of demand versus wind and solar in Herat
Figure 42. Annual average daily profile of demand versus wind and solar in Balkh
4.2.
The type and geographic location of intermittent power sources could have
different impacts on the remaining load requirements. To understand the effects of Balkh
and Herat solar PV and wind power on ADP, the method of Residual Load Duration
Curves (RLDC) (Ueckerdt, Brecha, & Luderer, 2014) is used. This method simply
subtracts hourly power produced from solar PV or wind power plants or a combination of
55
them from the required demand for that hour to get the residual load. The resulting
residual load is then sorted from highest to lowest to obtain the residual load duration
curve. One can easily understand the temporal impact of renewables on the demand
profile by comparing load duration curves (LDC) with RLDC. Although Herat wind and
solar PV power plants achieve higher annual average capacity factors or number of full
load hours than the ones in Balkh, their contribution in meeting various types of load
such as peak, cyclic (intermediate) or baseload differ. In both locations, solar power
plants reduce cyclic loads but not afternoon minimum loads or morning and evening
peaks loads. This is true for Herat solar plants as well.
Uljato wind reduces all three types of loads. It has the same effect as solar PV for
cyclic loads. The greatest contribution of Uljato wind is reducing operational hours of
near peak load. Herat wind, on the other hand, has a significant impact on reducing cyclic
and base loads since it is strongest in the summer and in the afternoons and evenings.
Figures 43 and 44 show residual load duration curves of ADP for 300 MW peak after
introducing 50 MW solar PV power and 50 MW wind power.
If synergistic effects of solar PV and wind are considered, 50 MW solar and 50
MW wind in Herat would have the same effect as 50 MW wind and 50 MW solar in
Balkh in reducing near peak loads. However, Herat combined solar and wind would
contribute more in reducing the baseload. Figure 45 shows residual load duration curves
of ADP for 300 MW peak demand in Herat and Balkh when both sources are connected
to the grid.
56
Figure 43. Residual load duration curves (RLDC) of Herat grid after introducing solar PV
and wind power independently
Figure 44. Residual load duration curve (RLDC) of Balkh grid after introducing solar PV
and wind power independently
57
Figure 45. Residual load duration curves (RLDC) of Balkh and Herat grids after
introducing solar PV and wind power together
4.3.
power plants divided by total annual demand of the grid. Curtailment on the other hand is
the ratio of total annual wind or solar power that is not used, divided by the total annual
wind or solar PV power generated. Hourly utilized power is calculated by subtracting
solar and wind power from replaceable demand (actual demand minus minimum demand
or base load7). Hourly curtailment is calculated using the same procedure as utilized
power whenever production from solar or wind is higher than replaceable demand. In the
meantime, for a given demand, penetration increases as the installed capacity increases.
In this section, penetration and curtailment curves of three sizes of wind and solar PV
power plants (50 MW, 100 MW, and 150 MW) are created for four ADP peak demand
It is assumed that renewables can only replace up to 81 % of the load at any time. It is technically and
economically infeasible to turn on and off some power plants to accommodate more renewables.
58
(200 MW, 300 MW, 400 MW and 500MW). Different grid demands are considered due
to the growing demand of grid segments in Herat and Balkh. Grid demand values are
roughly based on estimated future values for Herat and Balkh power systems (Fichtner,
2013). Results are presented in Figures 46 through 53.
For example, one could look at Figures 46 and 47 and notice that Balkh wind
power plant achieves penetration levels of 12 % to 30 % for the range of installed
capacities at 200 MW peak demand and decreases almost linearly to 5 % to 15 % at 500
MW peak. The highest curtailment loss of about 23 % occurs when installing 150 MW
wind power plants when the peak demand is 200 MW. For the rest of the combinations,
curtailment losses are about 10 % or less.
Wind power plants would achieve higher penetration levels than solar PV in
Balkh and Herat Provinces for a given installed capacity and grid demand. Both solar PV
and wind power plants in Herat achieve higher penetration levels than the ones in Balkh.
Although wind power plants could achieve higher penetrations levels than solar PV, they
have higher curtailment losses. This fact is due to mismatch of wind resource with
demand especially during the night times. Wind power curtailment losses are higher in
Hotel Safid than Uljato.
It is unlikely to see a cumulative installed capacity of solar PV and wind turbines
in the near future that would surpass limits of significant curtailment losses. However, it
is wise to take advantage of the modular nature of solar PV and wind turbines. Installed
capacity could be increased in parallel with increase in demand or export opportunities.
In addition, excess power from solar PV and wind power plants could be used to
59
60
61
62
63
5.
Zero fuel cost is one of the main advantages of power generation from renewable
sources such as solar and wind. However, higher installation capital costs are one of the
barriers in deploying these power plants. The good news is that the cost of wind turbines
and PV modules are going down as these systems are installed more and more. The goal
of this section is to estimate power generation cost in USD/kWh and AFG per kWh
assuming an exchange rate of 48 AFS/USD from solar PV and wind power plants in
Balkh and Herat provinces. To make calculations simple, the cost of energy generation
for a 1 MW power plant is calculated and it is assumed that generation over the life of the
projects remains the same as the first year generation. In addition, no replacement cost
and inflation is considered. Table 17 shows economic parameters
Net capacity factors and net annual energy yields for the power plants in Balkh and Herat
are summarized in Table 18.
Parameters are taken from Afghanistans Power Sector Master Plan prepared by Fichtner, 2013.
64
$/KW
$/KW/Year
$/KW
$/KW/Year
Years
2300
81
3500
63
20
12%
Table 17. Economic parameters used in calculation of electricity generation cost of solar
PV and wind power plants in Balkh and Herat provinces
Power Plant
Herat Solar PV
Herat Wind
Balkh Solar PV
Balkh Wind
Capacity Factor
16.9%
42.3%
14.0%
27.6%
AEP
(MWh/MW)
1480
3705
1226
2418
Table 18. Net annual energy production and capacity factors of solar PV and wind power
plants in Balkh and Herat
(14)
Where
= total power plant cost (excluding interconnection or transmission costs) plus the
cost of operating the power plants over the project lifetime
= total generated energy over the project lifetime
Equation 15 is used to calculate total power plant cost ( ).
65
= + & (15)
Where
= Power plant installed cost
& = Power plant operating cost
= Present value factor
Annual operating cost is discounted to find the present value. Equation 16 as
shown below is used to estimate the present value factor (PVF) of annual operating costs
1 (1 + )
(16)
Where
= Discount rate (12 %)
= project lifetime (20 years)
Total generated energy is calculated simply by multiplying Net Energy
Yield given in Table 18 by the project lifetime of 20 years. Table 19 shows the cost of
energy for each power plant in Balkh and Herat Provinces. The cheapest energy is
generated from the Herat wind power plant while the most expensive is from the Balkh
Solar PV plant.
66
Power Plant
Herat Solar PV
Herat Wind
Balkh Solar PV
Balkh Wind
LCOE
COE
(USD/kWh) (AFG/kWh)
0.134
6.433
0.039
1.877
0.157
7.554
0.060
2.880
Table 19. Electricity generation cost of solar PV and wind power plants in Balkh and
Herat
67
6.
CONCLUSION
Afghanistan unfortunately has not yet taken advantage of its vast resources of
renewable energies such as solar radiation and wind on a scale large enough to meet a
significant fraction of its electricity demand. Two of the most promising provinces for
renewable energy deployment are Balkh and Herat provinces. Annual average global
horizontal solar radiation in Herat and Balkh are 1,726 kWh/m2 and 1,967 kWh/m2
respectively. Fixed axis solar PV power plants tilted at angles equal to the latitudes
achieve 14 % and 17 % annual net capacity factors including modest losses in Balkh and
Herat respectively. Typical global capacity factors of solar PV power plants are in the
range of 10 % to 20%.
Average wind speeds at 50 m and power densities at 70 m in Uljato and Hotel
Safid reach 6.34 m/s and 9.11 m/s and 426 W/m2 and 879 W/m2 respectively. Sites with
power densities greater than 400 W/m2 are considered commercially viable for wind farm
development. Wind power plants in Uljato and Hotel Safid yield annual net capacity
factors of 27.6 % and 42.3 % respectively. Typical onshore wind power plants around the
world achieve capacity factors in the range of 20 % to 35 % with exceptional plants
achieving 45 %.
68
higher if the Afghan government sets national targets and designs effective policies. In
the end, higher solar PV and wind penetration means less reliance on unpredictable and
unstable power purchase agreements with neighboring countries, longer life of limited
domestic fossil fuel resources such as coal and natural gas, and less imports of diesel fuel
with rising costs and unfriendly environmental impacts.
70
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