Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Referensi
Dep.
Variabel
Ww
Wws/Ww
O/Wws
G/Wws
Geological
Independent Variables
Economic
Additional/Proxies
R2
0,84
Wws/Ww(-1)+*, O/Wws(-1)-*,
G/Wws(-1), Dept(-1)-*, Seismic+*
0,71
0,85
0,32
Fisher (1964)1
1
Sample: 46-55
PADD 1-5, CT
Ww
Wws/Ww
O/Wws
G/Wws
Seismic
Erickson &
Spann (1971) 1
2
Wwp
Sample: 46-55
PADD 1-5, CT
Wws/Ww(-1)+*, O/Wws(-1)+*,
G/Wws(-1), Depth(-1), Seismic+*
0,72
0,86
0,23
O/Wws(-1)+*, Wws/Ww(-1)+*,
G/Wws(-1)-*
O/Wws(-1), Wws/Ww(-1)+*, G/Wws(1)
Seismic(-1)+*
Depth(-1)+*, Wwps/Wwp(-1)-*,
Wwlarge/WwUS+*,
D*TXshut down,
D*nonTxshutdown +*
0,91
0,97
0,97
43
Lampiran 1 (lanjutan)
No
Referensi
Dep.
Variabel
Geological
Wwps/Wwp
Additional/Proxies
D*PADD, D*TXshutdown,
D*NonTXshutdown
R2
0,80
O/Wwps
Wwps/Wwp(-1)
D*PADD some*,
D*TXshutdown-*,
D*NonTXshutdown
0,89
G/Wwps
Wwps/Wwp(-1)
D*PADD some*,
D*TXshutdown-*,
D*NonTXshutdown
0,60
3D*dist some*
0,50
Wx
MacAvoy dan
Pindyck (1973) 1
Sample: 64-71 18
Dist, CT
Independent Variables
Economic
Gna/Wx
3D*dist some*
0,63
Ga/Wx
3D*dist some*
0,60
3 D*Dist
Pindyck (1974) 1
4
Sample: 64-60 18
Dist, CT
Wx
0,99
44
Lampiran 1 (lanjutan)
No
Referensi
Dep.
Variabel
Geological
Wxs/Wx
G/Wxs
Independent Variables
Economic
Additional/Proxies
3 D*Dist some *
Wxs/Wx(-1)
Ww
3 D*Dist some *
R2
0,27
0,27
5
Attanasi (1979) 1
Sample: Denver
Basin 49-73
Ww
O
Gna
Kolb (1979) 1
Sample: 46-69
8 US Gulf
Regions
46 58 7 Dist, CT
48-70 7 Dist, CT
0,92
0,70
0,78
Ww
Wws/Ww
O/Wws
0,50
G/Wws
0,30
0,75
0,65
45
Lampiran 1 (lanjutan)
No
Independent Variables
Economic
Additional/Proxies
Ww
0,88
Wws/Ww
0,67
O/Wwos
4ma WWS/WW-*,
Ro,7D*dist*
0,57
Dep.
Variabel
Referensi
Wx
Geological
R2
0,90
Ghouri (1991)
Sample: ARCO
US 74-89 TS
Mobil 70-88 US
TS
Philips 70-88 US
TS
Shell 70-88 US
TS
Wx
Wx
0,94
0,96
46
Lampiran 1 (lanjutan)
No
Referensi
Dep.
Variabel
Geological
Additional/Proxies
Wx
Ww
Independent Variables
Economic
R2
0,94
Ww-*, Depth(-1)+*
0,87
0,85
Depth+*, Wwgs/Ww+*
Poil+*
Crude imports+*
0,97
AlShami (1995) 1
8
Sample: 60-90
US TS
Wws/Ww
O/Wws
Forbes dan
Zampelli (2000) 2
Sample: US EIA
FRS 10 firms
1978-1998 CT
Wws/Ww
ln(unexplored acreage)+*,
Technological proxies+*
0,85
47
Lampiran 1 (lanjutan)
No
10
Referensi
Forbes dan
Zampelli (2002) 2
Sample: US EIA
FRS 10 firms
1978-1998 CT
Dep.
Variabel
11
12
R2
Additional/Proxies
Poil*, P*TxCreditEra-*
ln(unexplored acreage)+*,
Technological proxies+*
0,92
P+**, P(-1)+**
acreage(-1)+*
0,51
Ww
O+G(-1)-***, Wd(-1)-***
P+**, P(-1)+**
acreage(-1)+*
0,50
Wa
P+**, P(-1)+*
acreage(-1)+*
0,61
Year-***, Land-**
Year-***, Land-**
Year-***, Land-**
Boyce dan
Nostbakken
(2011) 2
US State 19552002
Independent Variables
Economic
onshoreDepth-*, Depth+*,
Wwgs/Ww+*
Wws/Ww
W
Mohn dan
Osmundsen
(2008) 2
Norwegian
Continental Shelf
1965-2004 CT
Geological
Ww
Wdev
48
Lampiran 1 (lanjutan)
Dep.
Variabel
No
Referensi
13
Nasir (2011) 2
Time Series19802009 Indonesia
Independent Variables
Economic
Geological
Additional/Proxies
Exploration&Development cost-,
worldPoil+*, OilConsumption+*
Seismic+*, O+G(-1)
Keterangan:
(-1)
CT
D*
D*dist
depth
G
O
ma
Ga
Gna
PADD
Wx0s
Wo
WPI
Ws
1
2
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
Pgas
Poil
Seismic
TS
TX shut down days
W
Wds
Gas
Ww
Wwgs
Wws
Wg
Wxs
Wx
Wxgs
ringkasan studi dikutip secara tidak langsung dari Dahl dan Duggan (1998)
ringkasan studi dikutip langsung dari penulis dan tahun paper dalam daftar pustaka
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
Gas price
Oil price
Seismic crews
Time series data
The number of days a Texas was shut down
Totals wells drilled
Successful developoment wells
Associated gas
New field wildcat wells drilled
Successful gas wildcat wells drilled
Successful wild cat wells drilled
Total gas wells drilled
Successful exploratory wells drilled
Exploratory wells drilled
Successful gas exploratory wells drilled
R2
0,78
49
Lampiran 2 Distribusi Data Geologi dan Keekonomian
East Prone
West Prone
well
1
.5
0
60
40
20
0
300
200
100
0
1
.5
0
East Prone
well
well
1
.5
0
50
sc
sc
do
do
0
50
dg
dg
off
0 5 10 150
.5
1 0 20 40 60 0 100200300
0
1
.5
0
off
0
10
200
.5
10
500
well
150
100
50
400
200
0
200
0
-200
-400
1
.5
0
50
p
sp
vw
off
0
5 10 15 50
100 1500
Total
do
dg
off
10 200
.5
1 0 20 40 60 0 100200300
150
100
50
400
200
0
200
0
-200
-400
1
.5
0
p
sp
vw
off
0
Graphs by reg
10
20 50
100
1500
200
400-400 -200 0
Graphs by reg
Sumber : Author, data Woodmac (2015) diolah dengan Stata 13 dengan kategori berdasarkan region basin geologis.
200
150
100
50
200
100
0
200
0
-200
1
.5
0
p
sp
vw
off
0
well
sc
200 400
-400-200 0 200
Total
well
1
.5
0
60
40
20
0
300
200
100
0
1
.5
0
West Prone
10
20 50
100
150 0
100
200
-200
200
50
Lampiran 3 Peta Geologis Wilayah Indonesia Barat
Basin Name
Bengkulu
Central Sumatra
East Java
Java Sea
Malay
Northwest Java
10
11
South Java
12
South Sumatra
13
Sunda
14
51
Lampiran 4 Peta Geologis Wilayah Indonesia Timur
Basin Name
Arafura
Barito
Biliton
Bintuni
Bonaparte
Buton
Irian Arafura
Kutei
Lariang
10
11
Papuan
12
13
Salawati
14
Seram
15
South Makassar
16
Tarakan
17
Tomori
18
Unclassified Basin
52
42
Lampiran 5 Profil Basin Geologis di Indonesia
53
43
Lampiran 6 Hasil Estimasi Dengan Incident Rate Ratio
(1)
mmboe
(2)
1.021133*
(0.0126)
1.111371 ***
(0.0295)
Lag of discovery size of oil2
mmboe
.9983605 **
(0.000646)
Lag of discovery size of gas
mmboe
1.008257** 1.026518 **
(0.00393)
(0.0125)
Lag of discovery size of gas2
mmboe
-0.000115
(7.79e-05)
Lag of success rate
%
3.445295 *** 0.746**
(0.293)
(0.330)
Lag of offshore variable
%
1.288905
1.160393
(0.243)
(0.244)
Region proxies
east = 1
1.648498** 2.776509 ***
(0.202)
(0.280)
Lag of spends per well
M USD/well .9981764
.9999054
(0.00169)
(0.00159)
Region* Lag of spends per well M US$/well
.9879642 **
(0.00595)
Lag of ICP
USD/barrel 1.005677
1.003909
(0.0123)
(0.0129)
Lag of oil price OPEC
USD/barrel
1.007059**
(0.00300)
Constant
.106566 **
.0775918 **
(0.963)
(1.003)
ln_r
ln_s
r
s
Observations
279
279
Number of t
9
9
Log-likelihood
-377.96878
-366.18769
Standard errors in parentheses *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
Sumber : Author, menggunakan Stata 13 dengan data Woodmac (2015)
Random Effects
(3)a
1.023112 *
(0.0119)
1.008837 **
(0.00388)
3.408932***
(0.287)
1.241624
(0.241)
1.687782***
(0.201)
.9979121
(0.00170)
1.000881
(0.00736)
.1637805***
(0.620)
16.09627
17.42023
9784098
3.68e+07
279
9
-412.48106
(4)b
1.115884***
(0.0282)
.9983025***
(0.000623)
1.0272239**
(0.0123)
.999882
(7.74e-05)
2.104002**
(0.320)
1.15125
(0.236)
2.767797***
(0.275)
.9997868
(0.00158)
.9879749**
(0.00588)
.9987208
(0.00679)
1.006833**
(0.00294)
.1222789***
(0.585)
18.83638
19.93414
1.52e+08
4.54e+08
279
9
-399.7523