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42

Lampiran 1 Rangkuman Model Empiris Eksplorasi Migas


No

Referensi

Dep.
Variabel
Ww

Wws/Ww
O/Wws
G/Wws

Geological

Independent Variables
Economic

Additional/Proxies

R2

SEISMIC +*, O/Wws(-1)+*,


Wws/Ww(-1)-*, G/Wws(-1)-*

Poil deflated WPI+*

0,84

Wws/Ww(-1)+*, O/Wws(-1)-*,
G/Wws(-1), Dept(-1)-*, Seismic+*

Poil deflated WPI

0,71

Poil deflated WPI-*

0,85

Poil deflated WPI-*

0,32

O/Wws(-1), Wws/Ww(-1)+*, G/Wws(1)+*


O/Wws(-1), Wws/Ww(-1)+*, G/Wws(1)

Fisher (1964)1
1

Sample: 46-55
PADD 1-5, CT

Ww

Wws/Ww
O/Wws
G/Wws
Seismic
Erickson &
Spann (1971) 1
2

Wwp
Sample: 46-55
PADD 1-5, CT

Seismic+*, O/Wws(-1)+*, Wws/Ww(1)-*, G/Wws(-1)-*, Depth(-1)-*

Poil deflated by drill cost+*

Wws/Ww(-1)+*, O/Wws(-1)+*,
G/Wws(-1), Depth(-1), Seismic+*

Poil deflated by drill costs

0,72

Poil deflated by drill cost-*

0,86

Poil deflated by drill cost-*

0,23

O/Wws(-1)+*, Wws/Ww(-1)+*,
G/Wws(-1)-*
O/Wws(-1), Wws/Ww(-1)+*, G/Wws(1)
Seismic(-1)+*

Depth(-1)+*, Wwps/Wwp(-1)-*,
Wwlarge/WwUS+*,

Deflated Poil+*, Deflated Pgas

D*TXshut down,
D*nonTxshutdown +*

0,91

4D*PADD some*, D*Txshut


down on Tx,
D*TXshutdown+*

0,97

D*PADD some*, D*PADD


some*, D*TXshutdown,
D*NonTXshutdown

0,97

43
Lampiran 1 (lanjutan)
No

Referensi

Dep.
Variabel

Geological

Wwps/Wwp

Deflated Poil, Deflated Pgas

Additional/Proxies
D*PADD, D*TXshutdown,
D*NonTXshutdown

R2
0,80

O/Wwps

Wwps/Wwp(-1)

Deflated Poil, Deflated Pgas,

D*PADD some*,
D*TXshutdown-*,
D*NonTXshutdown

0,89

G/Wwps

Wwps/Wwp(-1)

Deflated Poil, Deflated Pgas,

D*PADD some*,
D*TXshutdown-*,
D*NonTXshutdown

0,60

3D*dist some*

0,50

Deflated revenue oil and gas+*, drill


cost(-1)-*, risk index of variance in
district discovery size-*

Wx
MacAvoy dan
Pindyck (1973) 1
Sample: 64-71 18
Dist, CT

Independent Variables
Economic

Gna/Wx

3ma Pgas+*, 3ma drill cost+*, value of


exploratory well since 1963*

3D*dist some*

0,63

Ga/Wx

3ma Poil, 3ma drill cost+*, value of


exploratory well since 1963*

3D*dist some*

0,60

Deflated Poil, Deflated Pgas,

3 D*Dist

Pindyck (1974) 1
4

Sample: 64-60 18
Dist, CT

Wx

Depth(-1), Wxs/W(-1), Ratio of district


wells to total wells drilled+*

0,99

44
Lampiran 1 (lanjutan)
No

Referensi

Dep.
Variabel

Geological

Wxs/Wx
G/Wxs

Independent Variables
Economic

Additional/Proxies

Deflated Poil+*, Deflated Pgas+*,

3 D*Dist some *

Wxs/Wx(-1)

Deflated Pgas+*, Deflated Poil

Ww

Expeceted gross profit not discounted+*,


$value of discoveries(0), and (01) to (10)+*

3 D*Dist some *

R2
0,27
0,27

5
Attanasi (1979) 1
Sample: Denver
Basin 49-73

Ww

O
Gna

Kolb (1979) 1
Sample: 46-69
8 US Gulf
Regions
46 58 7 Dist, CT

48-70 7 Dist, CT

0,92

Pgas(nr), Poil(nr), WPI(nr)

D*regional land input+*

Pgas(nr), Poil(nr), WPI(nr)

D*regional land input+*

0,70
0,78

Ww

Wws/Ww(-1), O/Wws(-1), G/Wws(-1)*, Depth-*, Seismic+*,

Wws/Ww

O/Wws(-1), Wws/Ww(-1)+*, G/Wws(1)+*, Depth, Seismic+*,

O/Wws

O/Wws(-1)+*, Wws/Ww(-1), G/Wws(1)

Poil deflated WPI-*

0,50

G/Wws

O/Wws(-1), Wws/Ww(-1)+*, G/Wws(1)+*

Poil deflated WPI, Pgas deflated by WPI

0,30

Poil deflated WPI+*

Poil deflated WPI+*

0,75

0,65

45
Lampiran 1 (lanjutan)
No

Independent Variables
Economic

Additional/Proxies

Ww

Poil deflated WPI+*, Pgas deflated


WPI+*, capacity utilization, drill cost-*,

4ma WWS/WW-*, Ro plus


Rg. 7D*dist*

0,88

Wws/Ww

Poil deflated WPI, Pgas deflated WPI+*,


capacity utilization, drill cost+*

Ro plus Rg. 7D*dist*

0,67

O/Wwos

Poil deflated WPI, Pgas deflated WPI,


capacity utilization, drill cost

4ma WWS/WW-*,
Ro,7D*dist*

0,57

Dep.
Variabel

Referensi

Wx

Geological

Deflated Poil+*, Poil(-1), Poil(-2), Poil(3), Poil(-4), Exploration costs-*

R2

0,90

Ghouri (1991)
Sample: ARCO
US 74-89 TS
Mobil 70-88 US
TS
Philips 70-88 US
TS
Shell 70-88 US
TS

Wx

Wx

Deflated Poil+*, Poil(-1)+*, Poil(-2),


Poil(-3)+*, Poil(-4)+*, Exploration costs*

Deflated Poil+*, Poil(-1)+*, Poil(-2),


Poil(-3)+*, Poil(-4) +*, Exploration costs*

0,94

0,96

46
Lampiran 1 (lanjutan)
No

Referensi

Dep.
Variabel

Geological

Additional/Proxies

Deflated Poil+*, Poil(-1), Poil(-2)+*,


Poil(-3)+*, Poil(-4) +*, Exploration costs*

Wx

Ww

Independent Variables
Economic

R2

0,94

Seismic+*, Ww(-1)+*, Wws/Ww(-1)+*

Drill Cost-*, Weighted Average Poil &


Pgas+*, Bond rate

Ww-*, Depth(-1)+*

Weighted Averaga Poil & Pgas+*

0,87

Wds/Wd(-1)*, Ww, Ww(-1)-*,


Wws/Ww(-1)-*

Weighted Averaga Poil & Pgas+*, Bond


rate-*

0,85

Depth+*, Wwgs/Ww+*

Poil+*

Crude imports+*

0,97

AlShami (1995) 1
8

Sample: 60-90
US TS

Wws/Ww

O/Wws

Forbes dan
Zampelli (2000) 2
Sample: US EIA
FRS 10 firms
1978-1998 CT

Wws/Ww

ln(unexplored acreage)+*,
Technological proxies+*

0,85

47
Lampiran 1 (lanjutan)
No

10

Referensi
Forbes dan
Zampelli (2002) 2
Sample: US EIA
FRS 10 firms
1978-1998 CT

Dep.
Variabel

11

12

R2

Additional/Proxies

Poil*, P*TxCreditEra-*

ln(unexplored acreage)+*,
Technological proxies+*

0,92

O+G(-1)-***, O+G(-2)+*, Wd(-1)***

P+**, P(-1)+**

acreage(-1)+*

0,51

Ww

O+G(-1)-***, Wd(-1)-***

P+**, P(-1)+**

acreage(-1)+*

0,50

Wa

O+G(-1)-***, O+G(-2)-***, Wd(1)-**

P+**, P(-1)+*

acreage(-1)+*

0,61

Poil***, Pgas, Drillcost, real interest


rate+**

Year-***, Land-**

Poil***, Pgas, Drillcost, real interest rate

Year-***, Land-**

Poil-***, Pgas-***, Drillcost-**, real


interest rate

Year-***, Land-**

Boyce dan
Nostbakken
(2011) 2
US State 19552002

Independent Variables
Economic

onshoreDepth-*, Depth+*,
Wwgs/Ww+*

Wws/Ww

W
Mohn dan
Osmundsen
(2008) 2
Norwegian
Continental Shelf
1965-2004 CT

Geological

Ww

Wdev

Wxs/W***, Offshore+**, O, G, depth,


EOR+*, new CBM

Wxs/W ***, Offshore+**, O, G, depth,


EOR+*, new CBM

Wxs/W***, Offshore+***, O -*, G


+***, depth, EOR+*, new CBM

48
Lampiran 1 (lanjutan)
Dep.
Variabel

No

Referensi

13

Nasir (2011) 2
Time Series19802009 Indonesia

Independent Variables
Economic

Geological

Additional/Proxies

Exploration&Development cost-,
worldPoil+*, OilConsumption+*

Seismic+*, O+G(-1)

Keterangan:
(-1)
CT
D*
D*dist
depth
G
O
ma
Ga
Gna
PADD
Wx0s
Wo
WPI
Ws
1
2

=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=

Lag dengan periode 1 tahun


Cross section time series data
Dummy variable
District dummy variable
Kedalaman sumur
Gas reserves discovered
Oil reserves discovered
A moving average
New associated gas reserves found
New nonassociated gas reserves found
Petroleum administrative defense district
Successful oil exploratory wells drilled
Total oil wells drilled
Wholesale price index
Total successful wells drilled

Pgas
Poil
Seismic
TS
TX shut down days
W
Wds
Gas
Ww
Wwgs
Wws
Wg
Wxs
Wx
Wxgs

ringkasan studi dikutip secara tidak langsung dari Dahl dan Duggan (1998)
ringkasan studi dikutip langsung dari penulis dan tahun paper dalam daftar pustaka

=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=

Gas price
Oil price
Seismic crews
Time series data
The number of days a Texas was shut down
Totals wells drilled
Successful developoment wells
Associated gas
New field wildcat wells drilled
Successful gas wildcat wells drilled
Successful wild cat wells drilled
Total gas wells drilled
Successful exploratory wells drilled
Exploratory wells drilled
Successful gas exploratory wells drilled

R2
0,78

49
Lampiran 2 Distribusi Data Geologi dan Keekonomian
East Prone

West Prone

well
1
.5
0
60
40
20
0
300
200
100
0
1
.5
0

East Prone

well

well

1
.5
0
50

sc

sc

do

do
0
50

dg

dg
off

0 5 10 150

.5

1 0 20 40 60 0 100200300

0
1
.5
0

off
0

10

200

.5

10

500

well

150
100
50
400
200
0
200
0
-200
-400
1
.5
0

50

p
sp
vw
off
0

5 10 15 50

100 1500

Total

do
dg
off
10 200

.5

1 0 20 40 60 0 100200300

150
100
50
400
200
0
200
0
-200
-400
1
.5
0

p
sp
vw
off
0

Graphs by reg

10

20 50

100

1500

200

400-400 -200 0

Graphs by reg

Sumber : Author, data Woodmac (2015) diolah dengan Stata 13 dengan kategori berdasarkan region basin geologis.

200

150
100
50
200
100
0
200
0
-200
1
.5
0

p
sp
vw
off
0

well
sc

200 400
-400-200 0 200

Total

well
1
.5
0
60
40
20
0
300
200
100
0
1
.5
0

West Prone

10

20 50

100

150 0

100

200
-200

200

50
Lampiran 3 Peta Geologis Wilayah Indonesia Barat
Basin Name

Sumber: US. Geology Survey (2001).

Bengkulu

Central Sumatra

East Java

Java Sea

Kai - Aru Trough

Malay

Nam Con Son

North Sumatra - Mergui

Northwest Java

10

Sarawak - East Natuna

11

South Java

12

South Sumatra

13

Sunda

14

West Natuna - Penyu

51
Lampiran 4 Peta Geologis Wilayah Indonesia Timur
Basin Name

Sumber: US. Geology Survey (2001).

Arafura

Barito

Biliton

Bintuni

Bonaparte

Buton

Irian Arafura

Kutei

Lariang

10

North New Guinea

11

Papuan

12

Pasir - Asem Asem

13

Salawati

14

Seram

15

South Makassar

16

Tarakan

17

Tomori

18

Unclassified Basin

52
42
Lampiran 5 Profil Basin Geologis di Indonesia

Sumber: US. Geology Survey (2001)

53
43
Lampiran 6 Hasil Estimasi Dengan Incident Rate Ratio

Hasil Estimasi dengan Incident Rate Ratio (IRR)


Wells drilled
Fixed Effects
Variables
Lag of discovery size of oil

(1)
mmboe

(2)

1.021133*
(0.0126)

1.111371 ***
(0.0295)
Lag of discovery size of oil2
mmboe
.9983605 **
(0.000646)
Lag of discovery size of gas
mmboe
1.008257** 1.026518 **
(0.00393)
(0.0125)
Lag of discovery size of gas2
mmboe
-0.000115
(7.79e-05)
Lag of success rate
%
3.445295 *** 0.746**
(0.293)
(0.330)
Lag of offshore variable
%
1.288905
1.160393
(0.243)
(0.244)
Region proxies
east = 1
1.648498** 2.776509 ***
(0.202)
(0.280)
Lag of spends per well
M USD/well .9981764
.9999054
(0.00169)
(0.00159)
Region* Lag of spends per well M US$/well
.9879642 **
(0.00595)
Lag of ICP
USD/barrel 1.005677
1.003909
(0.0123)
(0.0129)
Lag of oil price OPEC
USD/barrel
1.007059**
(0.00300)
Constant
.106566 **
.0775918 **
(0.963)
(1.003)
ln_r
ln_s
r
s
Observations
279
279
Number of t
9
9
Log-likelihood
-377.96878
-366.18769
Standard errors in parentheses *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
Sumber : Author, menggunakan Stata 13 dengan data Woodmac (2015)

Random Effects
(3)a
1.023112 *
(0.0119)

1.008837 **
(0.00388)

3.408932***
(0.287)
1.241624
(0.241)
1.687782***
(0.201)
.9979121
(0.00170)

1.000881
(0.00736)

.1637805***
(0.620)
16.09627
17.42023
9784098
3.68e+07
279
9
-412.48106

(4)b
1.115884***
(0.0282)
.9983025***
(0.000623)
1.0272239**
(0.0123)
.999882
(7.74e-05)
2.104002**
(0.320)
1.15125
(0.236)
2.767797***
(0.275)
.9997868
(0.00158)
.9879749**
(0.00588)
.9987208
(0.00679)
1.006833**
(0.00294)
.1222789***
(0.585)
18.83638
19.93414
1.52e+08
4.54e+08
279
9
-399.7523

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