TABLE OF CONTENT

INTRODUCTION

HISTORY

SUMMARY

WHY THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET IS UNIQUE ?

ADVANTAGES & DISADVANTAGES OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE

MARKET
VARIOUS PARTICIPANTS OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET

10
11

CHARACTERISICS OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET

14

FUNCTION OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET

16

FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET

15

TYPES OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET

17

FACTORS AFFECTING MOVEMENT OF EXCHANGE RATES

18

PLAYERS IN FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET

24

FOREIGN EXCHANGE RISK

28

FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET IN INDIA

32

FOREX ANALYSIS
RESEARCH METHADOLOGY
FINDINGS
CONCLUSION

34

REFERENCES

36

INTRODUCTION

Being the main force driving the global economic market, currency is no doubt an essential
element for a country. However, in order for all the countries with different currencies to trade
with one another, a system of exchange rate between their currencies is needed; this system, is
formallyknownasforeignexchangeorcurrencyexchange.
In the early days, the system of currency exchange is supported solely by the gold amount held in
the vault of a country. However, this system is no longer appropriate now due to inflation and
hence, the value of ones currency nowadays is determined through the market forces alone. In
order to determine the value of a currencys exchange rate, two main types of system is used
whichisfloatingcurrencyandpeggedcurrency.
For floating exchange rate, its value is determined by the supply and demand of the global
market where the supply and demand is bound by all these factors such as foreign investment,
inflation and ratios of import and export. Normally, this system is adopted by most of the
advance countries like for example UK, US and Canada. All of these countries have a similarity
where their market is well developed and stable in economic terms. These countries choose to
practice this system due to the reason where floating exchange rate is proven to be much more
efficient compared to the pegged exchange rate. The reason behind this is because for floating
exchange rate, the market itself will re-adjust the exchange rate real-time in order to portray the
actual inflation and other economic forces. However, every system has its own flaw and so does
the floating exchange rate system. For instance, if a country suffers from economic instability
due to various reasons such as political issues, a floating exchange rate system will certainly
discourage investment due to the high risk of suffering from inflationary disaster or sudden slum
in exchangerate. Another form of exchange rate is known as pegged exchange rate. This is a
system where the value of the exchange rate is fixed by the government of a country and not the
supply and demand of the market. This system is called pegged exchange rate because the value
of a countrys currency is fixed to another countrys currency. As a result, the value of the pegged
currency will not fluctuate unlike the floating currency. The working principle behind this system
is slightly complicated where the government of a country will fixed the exchange rate of their
currency and when there is a demand for a certain currency resulting a rise in the exchange rate,
2

the government will have to release enough of that currency into the market in order to meet that
demand. However, there is a fatal flaw in this system where if the pegged exchange rate is not
controlled properly, panics may arise within the country and as a result of that, people will be
rushing to exchange their money into a more stable currency. When that happens, the sudden
overflow of that countrys currency into the market will decrease the value of their exchange rate
and in the end, their currency will be worthless. Due to this reason, only those under-developed
or developing countries will practice this method as a form to control the inflationrate. However,
the truth is, most of the countries do not fully practice the floating exchange rate or the pegged
exchange rate method in reality. Instead, they use a hybrid system known as floating peg.
Floating peg is the combination of the two main systems where one country will normally fixed
their exchange rate to the US Dollars and after that, they will constantly review their peg rate in
order

to

stay

in

line

with

the

actual

market

value.

The Foreign exchange market, or commonly known as FOREX, is the largest and most prolific
financial market because each day, more than 1 trillion worth of currency exchange takes place
between investors, speculators and countries. From this, we can deduce that the actual
mechanism behind the world of foreign exchange is far more complicated than what we may
already know, and that, the information mentioned earlier is just the tip of an iceberg.

HISTORY
The foreign exchange market (fx or forex) as we know it today originated in 1973. However,
money has been around in one form or another since the time of Pharaohs. The Babylonians are
credited with the first use of paper bills and receipts, but Middle Eastern moneychangers were
the first currency traders who exchanged coins from one culture to another. During the middle
ages, the need for another form of currency besides coins emerged as the method of choice.
These paper bills represented transferable third-party payments of funds, making foreign
currency exchange trading much easier for merchants and traders and causing these regional
economies to flourish.
From the infantile stages of forex during the Middle Ages to WWI, the forex markets were
relatively stable and without much speculative activity. After WWI, the forex markets became
very volatile and speculative activity increased tenfold. Speculation in the forex market was not
looked on as favorable by most institutions and the public in general. The Great Depression and
the removal of the gold standard in 1931 created a serious lull in forex market activity. From
1931 until 1973, the forex market went through a series of changes. These changes greatly
affected the global economies at the time and speculation in the forex markets during these times
was little, if any.
1944 Bretton Woods Accord is established to help stabilize the global economy after World
War II.
1971 Smithsonian Agreement established to allow for greater fluctuation band for currencies.
1972 European Joint Float established as the European community tried to move away from its
dependency on the U.S. dollar.
1973 Smithsonian Agreement and European Joint Float failed and signified the official switch to
a free-floating system.
1978 The European Monetary System was introduced so other countries could try to gain
independence from the U.S. dollar.
1978 Free-floating system officially mandated by the IMF.
1993 European Monetary System fails making way for a world-wide free-floating system.
4

SUMMARY

The foreign exchange market is the mechanism by which a person of firm transfers
purchasing power form one country to another, obtains or provides credit for

international trade transactions, and minimizes exposure to foreign exchange risk.

A foreign exchange transaction is an agreement between a buyer and a seller that a given

amount of one currency is to be delivered at a specified rate for some other currency.
A foreign exchange rate is the price of a foreign currency. A foreign exchange quotation

or quote is a statement of willingness to buy or sell at an announced rate.

The foreign exchange market consists of two tiers: the interbank or wholesale market,
and the client or retail market. Participants include banks and nonbank foreign exchange
dealers, individuals and firms conducting commercial and investment

transactions,

speculators and arbitragers, central banks and treasuries, and foreign exchange brokers.
Transactions are effectuated either on a spot basis or on a forward or swap basis. A spot
transaction is for an (almost) immediate value date while a forward transaction is for a

value date somewhere in the future.

Quotations can be classified either as European and American terms or as direct and

indirect quotes.
In the real world, quotations include a bid-ask spread. A bid is the exchange rate in one
currency at which a dealer will buy another currency. An ask is the exchange rate

at

which a dealer will sell the other currency. The spread is the difference between the bid
price and the ask price. This spread reflects the existence of commissions and transaction

costs.
A cross rate is an exchange rate between two currencies, calculated from their common
relationship with a third currency.

Why the foreign Exchange Market is Unique?

its huge trading volume representing the largest asset class in the world leading tohigh
liquidity;

its geographical dispersion;

its continuous operation: 24 hours a day except weekends, i.e. trading from 20:15 GMT
onSunday until 22:00 GMT Friday;

the variety of factors that affect exchange rates;

the low margins of relative profit compared with other markets of fixed income; and

the use of leverage to enhance profit and loss margins and with respect to account size.

As such, it has been referred to as the market closest to the ideal of perfect
competition,notwithstanding currency intervention by central banks. According to the
Bank for InternationalSettlements,as of April 2010, average dailyturnoverin global
foreign exchange markets isestimated at $3.98 trillion, a growth of approximately 20%
over the $3.21 trillion daily volumeas of April 2007. Some firms specializing on foreign
exchange market had put the average dailyturnover in excess of US$4 trillion.

The $3.98 trillion break-down is as follows:

$1.490 trillion in spot transactions
$475 billion in outright forwards
$1.765 trillion in foreign exchange swaps
$43 billion currency swaps
$207 billion in options and other product.

ADVANTAGES AND DISADVANTAGES OF FOREIGN

EXCHANGE MARKET.
Advantages
6

The forex market is extremely liquid, hence its rapidly growing popularity. Currencies
may be converted when bought or sold without causing too much movement in the price
and keeping losses to a minimum.

As there is no central bank, trading can take place anywhere in the world and operates on
a 24-hour basis apart from weekends.

An investor needs only small amounts of capital compared with other investments. Forex
trading is outstanding in this regard.

It is an unregulated market, meaning that there is no trade commission over seeing

transactions and there are no restrictions on trade.

In common with futures, forex is traded using a good faith deposit rather than a loan.
The interest rate spread is an attractive advantage.

Disadvantages

The major risk is that one counterparty fails to deliver the currency involved in a very
large transaction. In theory at least, such a failure could bring ruin to the forex market as
a whole.

Investors need a lot of capital to make good profits because the profit margins on smallscale trades are very low.

Various participants Of foreign Exchange Market:

Governments: Governments have requirements for foreign currency, such as paying

staff salaries and local bills for embassies abroad, or for arraigning a foreign currency credit line,
most often in dollars, for industrial or agricultural development in the third world, interest on
which ,as well as the capital sum, must periodically be paid. Foreign exchange rates concern
governments because changes affect the value of product and financial instruments, whichaffects
the health of a nations markets and financial systems.
Banks: There are different types of banks, all of which engage in the foreign exchange market to
greater or lesser extent. Some work to signal desired movement in the market without causing
overt change, while some aggressively manage their reserves by making speculative risks. The
vast majority, however, use their knowledge and expertise is assessing market trends for
speculative gain for their clients
Brokering Houses: These exist primarily to bring buyer and seller together at a mutually agreed
price. The broker is not allowed to take a position and must act purely as a liaison. Brokers
receive a commission from both sides of the transaction, which varies according to currency
handled. The use of human brokers has decreased due mostly to the rise of the interbank
electronic brokerage systems
International Monetary Market: The International Monetary Market (IMM) in Chicago trades
currencies for relatively small contract amounts for only four specific maturities a year.
Originally designed for the small investor, the IMM has grown since the early 1970s, and the
major banks, who once dismissed the IMM, have found that it pays to keep in touch with its
developments, as it is often a market leader
Money Managers: These tend to be large New York commission houses that are often very
aggressive players in the foreign exchange market. While they act on behalf of their clients, they
also deal on their own account and are not limited to one time zone, but deal around the world
through their agents.6. Corporations: Corporations are the actual end-users of the foreign
exchange market. With the exception only of the central banks, corporate players are the ones

who affect supply and demand. Since the corporations come to the market to offset currency
exposure they permanently change the liquidity of the currencies being dealt with.
Retail Clients: This includes smaller companies, hedge funds, companies specializing in
investment services linked by foreign currency funds or equities, fixed income brokers, the
financing of aid programs by registered worldwide charities and private individuals. Retail
investors trade foreign exchange using highly leveraged margin accounts. The amount of their
trading in total volume and in individual trade amounts is dwarfed by the corporations andinter
bank markets.
Central Bank
External value of the domestic currency is controlled and assigned by central bank of
everycounty. Each country has a central or apex bank. For example In India Reserve Bank of
Indiais the central Bank

Commercial Bank
Commercial banks are the one which has the most number of branches. With its wide
branchnetwork the Commercial banks buy the foreign exchange and sell it to the importers.
These banks are the most active among the market players and also provide services like
convertingcurrency from one to another.
Exchange Brokers
Services of brokers are used to some extent, Forex market has some practices and
traditiondepending on this the residing in other countries are utilised.Local brokers canconduct
Forex transactions as per the rules and regulations of the Forex governing body of their
respective country.

Overseas Forex market

:The Forexmarket operates all around the clock and the market day initiates with Tokyo
andfollowed by Bahrain Singapore, India, Frankfurt, Paris, London, New York, and
Sydney before things are back with Tokyo the next day
Speculators
In order to make profit on the account of favourable exchange rate, speculators buy foreign
currency if it is expected to appreciate and sell foreign currency if it is expected to depreciate.
They follow the practice of delaying covering exposures and not offering a cover till the time
cash flow is materialized.

Other financial institutions involved in the foreign exchange market include:

Stock brokers Commodity
Firms Insurance
Companies Charities
Private Institutions
Private Individuals

Characteristics Of Foreign Exchange Market

10

Changing Wealth:
The ratios between the currencies of two countries are exchange rates in forex. If one currency
loss its value in the market and at the same time the value of the another currency increases this
causes the fluctuations in the exchange rate in foreign exchange market. For Example, over 20
years ago a single US dollar bought 360 Japanese Yen, whereas at present1 US dollar buys 110
Japanese Yen; this explains that the Japanese Yen has risen in value ,and the US dollar has
decreased in value (relative to the Yen). This is said to be a shift in wealth, as a fixed amount of
Japanese Yen can now purchase many more goods than two decades ago
.
No Centralized Market
The foreign exchange market does not have a centralized market like a stock exchange. Brokers
in the foreign exchange market are not approved by a governing agency. Business network and
operation market of foreign exchange takes place without any unification in transaction. Foreign
exchange currency trading has been reformed into a non-formal and global network organization
it consists of advanced information system. Trader of forex should not be a member of any
organisation.
Circulation work
Foreign exchange market has member from all the countries, each country has differentgeo
graphical positions so forex operates all around the clock on working days (i.e.) Mondayto
Friday every week. Because the time in Australia is different than in European countries, this
kind of 24 hours operation, free from any time is an ideal environment for investors.
For instance, a trader may buy the Japanese Yen in the morning at the New York market, and in
the night if the Japanese Yen rises in the Hong Kong market, the trader can sell in the HongKong
market. more number of opportunities are available for the forex traders. In FOREX market most
trading takes place in only a few currencies; the U.S. Dollar ($), European
Currency Unit (), Japanese Yen (), British Pound Sterling (), Swiss Franc (Sf), Canadian
Dollar (Can$), and to a lesser extent, the Australian and New Zealand Dollars

Financial Instruments of foreign exchange market

11

Spot Market
Spot market involves the quickest transaction in the foreign exchange market. This involves
immediate payment at the current exchange rate is called as spot rate. The spot market accounts
for 1/3rdof all the currency exchange, trades in Federal Reserve that takes place within two days
of the agreement. The traders open to the volatility of the currency market, which can raise or
lower the price between the agreement and the trade.
Futures Market
These kind transactions involve future payment and future delivery at an agreed exchange rate.
Future market contracts are standardized, it is non-negotiable and the elements of the agreement
are set. It also takes the volatility of the currency market, specifically the spot market, out of the
equation. This type of market is popular for Steady return on their investment that is done on
large currency transactions.
Forward Market
the terms are negotiable between the two parties. The terms can be changes according to the
needs of the participants. It allows for more flexibility. Two entities swap currency for an agreed
amount of time, and then return the currency at the end of the contract.
Swap Transactions
In swap two parties are involves where they exchange the currencies for certain time and agree to
reserve the transaction at a later date. Swap is the most commonly used forward
transaction. In swap transaction it is not traded through the exchange and there is no
standardization. Until the transaction is completed the deposit is required to hold the position.

Functions of the Foreign Exchange Market

12

The foreign exchange market is the mechanism by which a person of firm transfers purchasing
power form one country to another, obtains or provides credit for international trade transactions,
and minimizes exposure to foreign exchange risk.
Transfer of Purchasing Power
Transfer of one country to another and from one national currency to another is called the
transfer of purchasing power. International transactions normally involve different people from
countries with different national currencies. Credit instruments and bank drafts are used to
transfer the purchasing power this is one of the important function in forex. In forex the
transaction can only be done in one currency.
Provision of credit for foreign trade
The forex takes time to move the goods from a seller to buyer so the transaction must be
financed. Foreign exchange market provides credit to the traders. Credit facility is need by
exporters when the goods are transited. Goods some on the other need credit facility when this
kind of special credit facility is used the forex exchange department is extended to finance the
foreign trade
Foreign Exchange Dealers
Foreign exchange dealers, deal both with interbank and client market. The profit of the dealers is
there buying at a bid price and sells it at a high price. Worldwide competitions among dealers
narrows the spread between bid and ask and so contributes to making the foreign exchange
market efficient in the same sense as securities markets. Dealers in the foreign exchange
departments of large international banks often function as market makers. They stand willing to
buy and sell those currencies in which they specialize by maintaining an inventory position in
those currencies.
Minimizing Foreign Exchange Risk: The foreign exchange market provides "hedging"
facilities for transferring foreign exchange risk to someone else

Types of Foreign Exchange Rates

13

Floating Rates
Floating rates is one of the primary reasons for fluctuation of currency in foreign
exchangemarket. This is one of the most important commonly and main type of exchange rate.
Under this market force all the economies of developed countries allow there currency to
flowfreely. When the value of the currency becomes low it makes the imports more and
theexports are cheaper, so the countries domestic goods and services are demanded more
inforeign buyers. The country can withstand the fluctuation only if the economy is strong.
When the countrys economy is able to meet the demand then it can adjust between the
foreign trade and domestic trade automatically.
Fixed Rates
Fixed exchange rates are used to attract the foreign investments and to promote foreign
trade.This type of rates is used only by small developed countries. By Fixed exchange rates
thecountry assures the investors for the stable and constant value of investment in the country.
Amonetary policy of the country becomes ineffective. In this type the exchange rates theimports
become expensive. The exchange value of the currency does not move. This
normally reduces the countrys currency against foreign currencies.
Pegged Rates
This rate is between the floating rate and the fixed rate. Pegged rates appropriate more
for developed country. A country allows its currency to fluctuation to some extend for a
adjustedcentral value. Pegged allow some adjustments and stability. No artificial rates are found
infixed and floating exchange rates. Pegged can fix the economic problem by itself and provide
growth opportunity also.

Factors affecting Movement of Exchange Rates

14

Aside from factors such as interest rates and inflation ,exchange rate is one of the most important
determinants of a country's relative level of economic health. Exchange rates play a vital role in a
country's level of trade, which is critical to every free market economy in the world. For this
reason, exchange rates are among the most watched ,analyzed and governmentally manipulated
economic measures. But exchange rates matter on a smaller scale as well: they impact the real
return of an investor's portfolio. Here we look at some of the major forces behind exchange rate
movements. Before we look at these forces, we should sketch out how exchange rate movements
affect a nation's trading relationships with other nations. A higher currency makes a country's
exports more expensive and imports cheaper in foreign markets; a lower currency makes a
country's exports cheaper and its imports more expensive in foreign markets. A higher exchange
rate can be expected to lower the country's balance of trade, while a lower exchange rate would
increase it. Numerous factors determine exchange rates, and all are related to the trading
relationship between two countries. Remember, exchange rates are relative, and are expressed as
a comparison of the currencies of two countries. The following are some of the principal
determinants of the exchange rate between two countries. Note that these factors are in no
particular order; like many aspects of economics ,the relative importance of these factors is
subject to much debate.
Differentials in Inflation
As a general rule, a country with a consistently lower inflation rate exhibits a rising currency
value, as its purchasing power increases relative to other currencies. During the last half of the
twentieth century, the countries with low inflation included Japan ,Germany and Switzerland,
while the U.S. and Canada achieved low inflation only later. Those countries with higher
inflation typically see depreciation in their currency in relation to the currencies of their trading
partners. This is also usually accompanied by higher interest rates.
Differentials in Interest Rates
Interest rates, inflation and exchange rates are all highly correlated. By manipulating interest
rates, central banks exert influence over both inflation and exchange rates, and changing interest
rates impact inflation and currency values. Higher interest rates offer lenders in an economy a
higher return relative to other countries. Therefore, higher interest rates attract foreign capital and
cause the exchange rate to rise. The impact of higher interest rates is mitigated, however, if
inflation in the country is much higher than in others, or if additional factors serve to drive the
15

currency down. The opposite relationship exists for decreasing interest rates - that is, lower
interest rates tend to decrease exchange rates.
Current-Account Deficits
The current account is the balance of trade between a country and its trading partners, reflecting
all payments between countries for goods, services, interest and dividends. A deficit in the
current account shows the country is spending more on foreign trade than it is earning, and that it
is borrowing capital from foreign sources to make up the deficit. In other words, the country
requires more foreign currency than it receives through sales of exports, and it supplies more of
its own currency than foreigners demand for its products. The excess demand for foreign
currency lowers the country's exchange rate until domestic goods and services are cheap enough
for foreigners, and foreign assets are too expensive to generate sales for domestic interests.
Public Debt
Countries will engage in large-scale deficit financing to pay for public sector project sand
governmental funding. While such activity stimulates the domestic economy ,nations with large
public deficits and debts are less attractive to foreign investors. The reason? A large debt
encourages inflation, and if inflation is high, the debt will be serviced and ultimately paid off
with cheaper real dollars in the future.
In the worst case scenario, a government may print money to pay part of a large debt, but
increasing the money supply inevitably causes inflation. Moreover, if a government is not able to
service its deficit through domestic means (selling domestic bonds, increasing the money
supply), then it must increase the supply of securities for sale to foreigners, thereby lowering
their prices. Finally, a large debt may prove worrisome to foreigners if they believe the country
risks defaulting on its obligations. Foreigners will be less willing to own securities denominated
in that currency if the risk of default is great. For this reason, the country's debt rating (as
determined by Moody's or Standard& Poor's, for example) is a crucial determinant of its
exchange rate
.
Terms of Trade
16

Trade of goods and services between countries is the major reason for the demand and supply of
foreign currencies. A ratio comparing export prices to import prices, the terms of trade is related
to current accounts and the balance of payments. If the price of a country's exports rises by a
greater rate than that of its imports, its terms of trade have favorably improved. Increasing terms
of trade shows greater demand for the country's exports. This, in turn, results in rising revenues
from exports, which provides increased demand for the country's currency (and an increase in the
currency's value). If the price of exports rises by a smaller rate than that of its imports, the
currency's value will decrease in relation to its trading partners. This is a typical case for
underdeveloped countries which rely on imports for development needs. The current account
balance(deficit or surplus) thus reflects the strength and weakness of the domestic currency.
6. Fundamental Factors viz. Political Stability and Economic Performance
Fundamental factors include all such events that affect the basic economic and fiscal policies of
the concerned government. These factors normally affect the long-term exchange rates of any
currency. On short-term basis on many occasions, these factors are found to be rather inactive
unless the market attention has turned to fundamentals. However, in the long run exchange rates
of all the currencies are linked to fundamental causes. The fundamental factors are basic
economic policies followed by the government in relation to inflation, balance of payment
position, unemployment ,capacity utilization, trends in import and export, etc. Normally, other
things remaining constant the currencies of the countries that follow the sound economic policies
will always be stronger. Similar for the countries which are having balance of payment surplus,
the exchange rate will always be favourable. Conversely, for countries facing balance of payment
deficit, the exchange rate will be adverse. Continuous and ever growing deficit in balance of
payment indicates over valuation of the currency concerned and the dis-equilibrium created can
be remedied through devaluation. Foreign investors inevitably seek out stable countries with
strong economic performance in which to invest their capital. A country with such positive
attributes will draw investment funds away from other countries perceived to have more political
and economic risk. Political turmoil, for example, can cause a loss of confidence in a currency
and a movement of capital to the currencies of more stable countries.

Political and Psychological factors

17

Political and psychological factors are believed to have an influence on exchange rates.Many
currencies have a tradition of behaving in a particular way for e.g. Swiss Franc asa refuge
currency. The US Dollar is also considered a safer haven currency whenever there is a political
crisis anywhere in the world.
Speculation
Speculation or the anticipation of the market participants many a times is the prime reason for
exchange rate movements. The total foreign exchange turnover worldwide is many times the
actual goods and services related turnover indicating the grip of speculators over the market.
Those speculators anticipate the events even before the actual data is out and position themselves
accordingly in order to take advantage when the actual data confirms the anticipations. The
initial positioning and final profit taking make exchange rates volatile. These speculators many
times concentrate only on one factor affecting the exchange rate and as a result the market
psychology tends to concentrate only on that factor neglecting all other factors that have equal
bearing on the exchange rate movement. Under these circumstances even when all other factors
may indicate negative impact on the exchange rate of the currency if the one factor that the
market is concentrating comes out positive the currency strengthens.
Capital Movement
The phenomenon of capital movement affecting the exchange rate has a very recent origin. Huge
surplus of petroleum exporting countries due to sudden spurt in the oil prices could not be
utilized by these countries for home consumption entirely and needed to be invested elsewhere
productively. Movement of these petro dollars, started
affecting the exchange rates of various currencies. Capital tended to move from lower yielding to
higher yielding currencies and as a result the exchange rates moved. International investments in
the form of Foreign direct investment (FDI) and Foreign institutional investments (FII) have
become the most important factors affecting the
exchange rate in todays open world economy. Countries which attract large capital
inflows through foreign investments, will witness an appreciation in its domestic currency as its
demand rises. Outflow of capital would mean a depreciation of domestic currency.

Intervention
18

Exchange rates are also influenced in no small measure by expectation of changes in regulation
relating to exchange markets and official intervention. Official intervention can smoothen an
otherwise disorderly market but it is also the experience that if the authorities attempt halfheartedly to counter the market sentiments through intervention in the market, ultimately more
steep and sudden exchange rate swings can occur. In the second quarter of 1985 the movement of
exchange rates of major currencies reflected the change in the US policy in favour of coordinated exchange market intervention as a measure to bring down the value of dollar.
Stock Exchange Operations
Stock exchange operations in foreign securities, debentures, stocks and shares, influence the
demand and supply of related currencies, thus influencing their exchange rate
.
Political Factors
Political scenario of the country ultimately decides the strength of the country. Stable efficient
government at the centre will encourage positive development in the country, creating successf ul
investor confidence and a good image in the international market. An economy with a strong,
positive image will obviously have a strong domestic currency. This is the reason why
speculations rise considerably during the parliament elections, with various predictions of the
future government and its policies. In 1998,the Indian rupee depreciated against the dollar due to
the American sanctions after India conducted the Pokharan nuclear test

.
Others
19

The turnover of the market is not entirely trade related and hence the funds placed at the disposal
of foreign exchange dealers by various banks, the amount which the dealers can raise in various
ways, banks' attitude towards keeping open position during the course of a day, at the end of the
day, on the eve of weekends and holidays ,window dressing operations as at the end of the half
year to year, end of the month considerations to cover operations for the returns that the banks
have to submit the central monetary authorities etc. - all affect the exchange rate movement of
the currencies. Value of a currency is thus not a simple result of its demand and supply, but a
complex mix of multiple factors influencing the demand and supply.
Its a tight rope walk for any
country to maintain a strong, stable currency, with policies taking care of conflicting demands
like inflation and export promotion, welcoming foreign investments and avoiding an appreciation
of the domestic currency, all at the same time.

Players in Foreign Exchange Market

20

A key goal of exchange rate economics is to understand currency returns. Exchange rates
like asset prices more generally move in response to new information about their fundamental
value. Over the past decade microstructure research has revealed
that this price discovery process involves different categories of market participants. Each
participants distinct role is determined by (a) whether the agent
is a liquidity maker or taker, and (b) the extent to which the agent is informed. The original FX
market participants were traders in goods and services. Currencies came into existence because
they solved the problem of the coincidence of wants with
respect to goods. Most countries have their own currencies so international trade in goods
requires trade in currencies. The motives for currency exchange have expanded over the
centuries to include speculation, hedging, and arbitrage with the list of key players expanding
accordingly. Beyond importers and exporters, the major categories of market participants now
include asset managers, dealers, central banks, small individual (retail) traders, and most recently
high-frequency traders.
The Forex over the counter market is formed by different participants
with varying needs and interests that trade directly with each other. These participants can be
divided in two groups: the interbank market and the retail market.
The Interbank Market
The interbank market designates Forex transactions that occur between central banks,
commercial banks and financial institutions.
Central Banks
National central banks (such as the US Fed, the ECB, R.B.I.)play an important role in the Forex
market. As principal monetary authority, their role consists in achieving price stability and
economic growth. Their main purpose is to provide adequate trading conditions. To do so, they
regulate the entire money supply in the economy by setting interest rates and reserve
requirements. They also manage the country's foreign exchange reserves that they can use in
order to influence market conditions and exchange rates. Central banks intervene in economic or
financial imbalance in the foreign exchange market. Central banks are also responsible for
21

stabilizing the forex market. They do this by balancing the country's foreign exchange reserves.
In addition, they also have official target rates for the currencies that they are handling. Because
of this role, central banks are sometimes jokingly referred to as circus performers because of the
daily balancing act that they have to perform. Their intervention in the foreign exchange market
is not to earn profit from foreign currency trading.

Commercial Banks
Traditionally known as a savings and lending institution, banks are certainly one of the major
players in forex market. They are the natural players in foreign exchange as all other participants
must deal with them. Foreign exchange currency trading began as an added service to deposits
and loans offered by commercial banks. Banks are usually involved in both large quantities of
speculative trading and also daily commercial turnover. The really big and well-established
banks trade in the billions of dollars in foreign currencies every day. Commercial banks provide
liquidity to the Forex market due to the trading volume they handle every day. Some of this
trading represents foreign currency conversions on behalf of customers' needs while some is
carried out by the banks' proprietary trading desk for speculative purpose. The profitability
of foreign exchange trading is a perfect characteristic for banks to be involved.

Financial Institutions
Financial institutions such as money managers, investment funds, pension funds and brokerage
companies trade foreign currencies as part of their obligations to seek the best investment
opportunities for their clients. For example, a manager of an international equity portfolio will
have to engage in currency trading in order to buy and sell foreign stocks.

22

The Retail Market

The retail market designates transactions made by smaller speculators and investors .These
transactions are executed through Forex brokers who act as a mediator between the retail market
and the interbank market. The participants of the retail market are investment firms, hedge funds,
corporations and individuals / retail forex brokers and speculators..
Investment Firms
Investment management firms commonly manage huge accounts on behalf of their clients such
as endowments and pension funds. Sometimes, these investments require the exchange of foreign
currencies so they have to facilitate these transactions through the use of the foreign exchange
market. These situations exist because there are basically no limitations to the nationalities of
customers that an investment firm can attract. Therefore, investment managers with an
international equity portfolio, needs to purchase and sell several pairs of foreign currencies to
pay for foreign securities purchases.
Hedge Funds
Hedge funds are private investment funds that speculate in various assets classes using leverage.
Macro Hedge Funds pursue trading opportunities in the Forex Market. They design and execute
trades after conducting a macroeconomic analysis that reviews the challenges affecting acountry
and its currency. Due to their large amounts of liquidity and their aggressive strategies, they are a
major contributor to the dynamics of Forex Market.
Corporations
They represent the companies that are engaged in import/export activities with foreign
counterparts. Their primary business requires them to purchase and sell foreign currencies in
exchange for goods, exposing them to currency risks. Through the Forex market, they convert
currencies and hedge themselves against future fluctuations. Initially, they were not interested in
foreign exchange trading, but the trend of companies going international and tight competition
amongst them made them think twice
.
23

Individuals / Retail Forex Brokers

Individual traders or investors trade Forex on their own capital in order to profit from
speculation on future exchange rates
They mainly operate through Forex platforms that offer tight spreads, immediate execution and
highly leveraged margin accounts. These can be individuals or groups of individuals. They
handle a fraction of the total volume of the entire forex market, but do not let that fool you. A
single retail forex broker estimate retail volume of between 25 to 50 billion dollars each day.
Their volume is estimated to make up 2% of the total market volume.

Speculators
A person, who trades in currencies with a higher than average risk in return for higher than
average profit potential. These are the individuals or private investors who purchase and sell
foreign currencies and profit through fluctuations on their price. Speculators are a "hardy" bunch
simply because they are more adept at handling and maybe even sidestepping risks that
regular investors would prefer not to be involved with. Speculators take large risks, especially
with respect to anticipating future price movements, in the hope of making quick large gains.
Speculators are risk-taking investors with expertise in the market(s) in which they are trading and
will usually use highly leveraged investments such as futures and options

FOREIGN EXCHANGE RISK

24

Foreign exchange risk (also known as exchange rate risk or currency risk) is a financial risk
posed by an exposure to unanticipated changes in the exchange rate between two currencies.
Investors and multinational businesses exporting or importing goods and services or making
foreign investments throughout the global economy are faced with an exchange rate risk which
can have severe financial consequences if not managed appropriately. Many businesses were
unconcerned with and did not manage foreign exchange risk under the Bretton Woods system of
international monetary order. It wasn't until the onset of floating exchange rates following the
collapse of the Bretton Woods system that firms perceived an increasing risk from exchange rate
fluctuations and began trading an increasing volume of financial derivatives in an effort to hedge
their exposure. The outbreak of currency crises in the 1990s and early 2000s, such as the
Mexican peso crisis, Asian currency crisis, 1998 Russian financial crisis, and the Argentine peso
crisis, substantial losses from foreign exchange have led firms to pay closer attention to foreign
exchange risk.
MANAGEMENT
Managers of multinational firms employ a number of foreign exchange hedging strategies in
order to protect against exchange rate risk. Transaction exposure is often managed either with the
use of the money markets, foreign exchange derivatives such as forward contracts, futures
contracts, options, and swaps, or with operational techniques such as currency invoicing, leading
and lagging of receipts and payments, and exposure netting.
Firms may exercise alternative strategies to financial hedging for managing their economic or
operating exposure, by carefully selecting production sites with a mind for lowering costs, using
a policy of flexible sourcing in its supply chain management, diversifying its export market
across a greater number of countries, or by implementing strong research and development
activities and differentiating its products in pursuit of greater inelasticity and less foreign
exchange risk exposure.
Translation exposure is largely dependent on the accounting standards of the home country and
the translation methods required by those standards. For example, the United States Federal
Accounting Standards Board specifies when and where to use certain methods such as the
temporal method and current rate method. Firms can manage translation exposure by performing
25

a balance sheet hedge. Since translation exposure arises from discrepancies between net assets
and net liabilities on a balance sheet solely from exchange rate differences. Following this logic,
a firm could acquire an appropriate amount of exposed assets or liabilities to balance any
outstanding discrepancy. Foreign exchange derivatives may also be used to hedge against
translation exposure.
MEASUREMENT
If foreign exchange markets are efficient such that purchasing power parity, interest rate parity,
and the international Fisher effect hold true, a firm or investor needn't protect against foreign
exchange risk due to an indifference toward international investment decisions. A deviation from
one or more of the three international parity conditions generally needs to occur for an exposure
to foreign exchange risk.
Financial risk is most commonly measured in terms of the variance or standard deviation of a
variable such as percentage returns or rates of change. In foreign exchange, a relevant factor
would be the rate of change of the spot exchange rate between currencies. Variance represents
exchange rate risk by the spread of exchange rates, whereas standard deviation represents
exchange rate risk by the amount exchange rates deviate, on average, from the mean exchange
rate in a probability distribution. A higher standard deviation would signal a greater currency
risk. Economists have criticized the accuracy of standard deviation as a risk indicator for its
uniform treatment of deviations, be they positive or negative, and for automatically squaring
deviation values. Alternatives such as average absolute deviation and semivariance have been
advanced for measuring financial risk.

VALUE AT RISK
Practitioners have advanced and regulators have accepted a financial risk management technique
called value at risk (VAR), which examines the tail end of a distribution of returns for changes in
26

exchange rates to highlight the outcomes with the worst returns. Banks in Europe have been
authorized by the Bank for International Settlements to employ VAR models of their own design
in establishing capital requirements for given levels of market risk. Using the VAR model helps
risk managers determine the amount that could be lost on an investment portfolio over a certain
period of time with a given probability of changes in exchange rates.

TYPES OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE RISK

Transaction Exposure
A firm has transaction exposure whenever it has contractual cash flows (receivables and
payables) whose values are subject to unanticipated changes in exchange rates due to a contract
being denominated in a foreign currency. To realize the domestic value of its foreigndenominated cash flows, the firm must exchange foreign currency for domestic currency. As
firms negotiate contracts with set prices and delivery dates in the face of a volatile foreign
exchange market with exchange rates constantly fluctuating, the firms face a risk of changes in
the exchange rate between the foreign and domestic currency. It refers to the risk associated with
the change in the exchange rate between the time an enterprise initiates a transaction and settles
it.
Economic Exposure
A firm has economic exposure (also known as operating exposure) to the degree that its market
value is influenced by unexpected exchange rate fluctuations. Such exchange rate adjustments
can severely affect the firm's market share position with regards to its competitors, the firm's
future cash flows, and ultimately the firm's value. Economic exposure can affect the present
value of future cash flows. Any transaction that exposes the firm to foreign exchange risk also
exposes the firm economically, but economic exposure can be caused by other business activities
Translation Exposure
A firm's translation exposure is the extent to which its financial reporting is affected by exchange
rate movements. As all firms generally must prepare consolidated financial statements for
27

reporting purposes, the consolidation process for multinationals entails translating foreign assets
and liabilities or the financial statements of foreign subsidiary subsidiaries from foreign to
domestic currency. While translation exposure may not affect a firm's cash flows, it could have a
significant impact on a firm's reported earnings and therefore its stock price. Translation
exposure is distinguished from transaction risk as a result of income and losses from various
types of risk having different accounting treatments.
Contingent exposure
A firm has contingent exposure when bidding for foreign projects or negotiating other contracts
or foreign direct investments. Such an exposure arises from the potential for a firm to suddenly
face a transactional or economic foreign exchange risk, contingent on the outcome of some
contract or negotiation. For example, a firm could be waiting for a project bid to be accepted by a
foreign business or government that if accepted would result in an immediate receivable. While
waiting, the firm faces a contingent exposure from the uncertainty as to whether or not that
receivable will happen. If the bid is accepted and a receivable is paid the firm then faces a
transaction exposure, so a firm may prefer to manage contingent exposures.

Foreign Exchange Market In India

The foreign exchange market India is growing very rapidly. The annual turnover of the market is
more than $400 billion. This transaction does not include the inter-bank transactions. According
to the record of transactions released by RBI, the average monthly turnover in the merchant
segment was $40.5 billion in 2003-04 and the inter-bank transaction was $134.2 for the same
period.
28

.The foreign exchange market India is growing very rapidly. The annual turnover of the market is
more than $400 billion. This transaction does not include the inter-bank transactions. According
to the record of transactions released by RBI, the average monthly turnover in the merchant
segment was $40.5 billion in 2003-04 and the inter-bank transaction was $134.2 for the same
period.
.The average total monthly turnover was about $174.7 billion for the same period. The
transactions are made on spot and also on forward basis, which include currency swaps and
interest rate swaps.
The Indian foreign exchange market consists of the buyers, sellers ,market intermediaries and the
monetary authority of India. The main center of foreign exchange transactions in India is
Mumbai, the commercial capital of the country. There are several other centers for foreign
exchange transactions in the country including Kolkata, New Delhi, Chennai, Bangalore,
Pondicherry and Cochin.
The foreign exchange market India is regulated by the reserve bank of India through the
Exchange

Control

Department.

At

the

same

time,

Foreign

Exchange

Dealers

Association(voluntary association) also provides some help in regulating the market. The
Authorized Dealers (Authorized by the RBI) and the accredited brokers are eligible to participate
in the foreign Exchange market in India. When the foreign exchange trade is going on between
Authorized Dealers and RBI or between the Authorized Dealers and the Overseas banks, the
brokers have no role to play.
.Apart from the Authorized Dealers and brokers, there are some others who are provided with
there stricted rights to accept the foreign currency or travelers cheque. Among these, there are the
authorized money changers, travel agents, certain hotels and government shops. The IDBI and
Exim bank are also permitted conditionally to hold foreign currency.
The whole foreign exchange market in India is regulated by the Foreign Exchange Management
Act, 1999 or FEMA. Before this act was introduced, the market was regulated by the FERA or
29

Foreign Exchange Regulation Act ,1947. After independence, FERA was introduced as a
temporary measure to regulate the inflow of the foreign capital. But with the economic and
industrial development, the need for conservation of foreign currency was felt and on there
commendation of the Public Accounts Committee, the Indian government passed the Foreign
Exchange Regulation Act,1973 and gradually, this act became famous as FEMA.

CONCLUSION
The foreign monetary exchange market is the biggest financial market in the world. Bigger than
the New York Stock Exchange and Futures Market combined. And with reduced "buy-in" limits
now, even small-time players can join the Forex trading marketplace. That doesn't mean
everyone should join, however. Buying an auto-trading program sold to you with the promise of
making you millions probably won't. In fact, it may cost you everything you own. The only way
30

to win in Forex trading is the good, old-fashioned way - hard work

andasolidunderstandingofthemarket.
One has to be clued in to global developments, trends in world trade as well as economic
indicators of different countries. These include GDP growth, fiscal and monetary policies,
inflows and outflows of the currency, local stock market performance and interest rates.
The currency derivatives market is highly leveraged. In the stock futures market, a 20% margin
gains a five-fold leverage. In forex futures, the margin payable is just 3%, so the leverage is 33
times. This means that even a 1% change can wipe out a third of the investment. However, the
Indian currency markets are well-regulated and there is almost no counter-party risk. Investors
should start small and gradually invest more.

One has to be clued in to global developments, trends in world trade as well as economic
indicators of different countries. These include GDP growth, fiscal and monetary policies,
inflows and outflows of the currency, local stock market performance and interest rates.
The currency derivatives market is highly leveraged. In the stock futures market, a 20% margin
gains a five-fold leverage. In forex futures, the margin payable is just 3%, so the leverage is 33
times. This means that even a 1% change can wipe out a third of the investment. However, the
Indian currency markets are well-regulated and there is almost no counter-party risk. Investors
should start small and gradually invest more.
Liberalization has transformed Indias external sector and a direct beneficiary of this has been the
foreign exchange market in India. From a foreign exchange-starved, control-ridden economy,
India has moved on to a position of $150 billion plus in international reserves with a confident
rupee and drastically reduced foreign exchange control. As foreign trade and cross-border capital
flows continue to grow, and the country moves towards capital account convertibility, the foreign
exchange market is poised to play an even greater role in the economy, but is unlikely to be
completely free of RBI interventions any time soon.

31

REFERENCES

http://www.travelspk.com/forex/Forex-Development-History.htm

32

http://www.global-view.com/forex-education/forexlearning/gftfxhist.html

www.google.com . GOOGLE SEARCH ENGINE

GOVIND SOWANI, RISHABH PUBLISHING HOUSE- FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKETS

SCHWESER NOTES (FOR CFA)- ECONOMICS- CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATES

A.K. SETH, INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT

33

FOREX ANALYSIS

What is the best method of analysis for forex trading?

Types Of Analysis Used In Forex
Forex analysis is used by the retail forex day trader to determine whether to buy or
sell a currency pair at any one time. Forex analysis could be technical in nature,
using charting tools, or fundamental in nature, using economic indicators and/or
news based events. The day trader's currency trading system use analysis that
create buy or sell decisions when they point in the same direction. Forex trading
strategies that use this analysis are available for free, for a fee or are developed by
the trader themselves.
Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental analysis is often used to analyze changes in the forex market by

monitoring factors, such as interest rates, unemployment rates, gross domestic
product (GDP) and many other economic releases that come out of the countries in
question. For example, a trader analyzing the EUR/USD currency pair
fundamentally, would be interested in the interest rates in the Eurozone, compared
to those in the U.S. They would also want to be on top of any significant news
releases coming out of each country in relation to the health of their economies.

34

Technical Analysis
Technical analysis can be either manual or automated and is a system that uses past price

movement to determine where a given currency may be headed. A manual system

involves a trader analyzing technical indicators and interpreting whether to buy or
sell. An automated trading analysis, involves the trader "teaching" the software
what signals to look for and how to interpret them. Automated analysis takes out
the human element of psychology that is detrimental to a lot of traders.

Both automated technical analysis and manual trading strategies are available to
purchase over the internet. It is important to note, though, that there is no such
thing as the "holy grail" of trading systems. If the system was a perfect money
maker, then the seller would not want to share it. This is evidenced in how big
financial firms keep their "black box" trading programs under lock and key.
There is no "best" method of analysis to be used by the forex trader. Depending on
the trader's time frame, and access to information, either fundamental analysis or
technical analysis could be thought of as the most viable option. For a short-term
trader, with only delayed information to economic data, but real-time access to
quotes, technical analysis may be the preferred method. Alternatively, for the longterm trader, or perhaps for the trader that has access to up-to-the-minute news
reports and economic data, fundamental analysis could be preferred.

35

RESEARCH METHADOLOGY
To define the research methodology, one has to go step by step. Any research
methodology involves following steps:

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.

Problem recognition
Survey of literature
Hypothesis formulation
Research design
Sample design
Data collection
Analysis and interpretation

RESEARCH PROBLEM: A Problem properly defined is half solved.

It is very necessary for any research that research problem should be recognized.
It is critical to any research
Once problem is identified, it is to be formulated properly.
Initially the plan is stated in a broad and general way and then it is properly defined in

specific terms.
Problem formulation means defining a problem precisely.
In this study our research problem is: The study of forex market.

LITERATURE SURVEY:
To do any research, we have to review/study previous literature. For this we studied
journals, magazines and books offorex and risk management and also the search engine
www.google.com. To get good results in any research, it is very essential that this review
of literature should be carefully done.

HYPOSTHESIS FORMULATION:
36

Hypothesis is any assumption for the research effectively and efficiently. The hypothesis of my
research is that:

Forex market is very volatile in nature.

It is changing day by day showing a wide growth in economy.
Different factors like speculation, hedging forces different people to enter in different

market.
Risk is there in forex market and various risk management strategies are there to manage
it.

RESEARCH DESIGN:
Research design is a conceptual structure within which research is conducted. A research design
is the arrangement of conditions for collection and analysis of data in a manner that aims to
combine relevance to the research purpose with economy in procedures.
Research design can be of various types.

Descriptive
Exploratory
Experimental
Analytical

Research design of my study is EXPLORATORY AND ANALYTICAL.

DATA COLLECTION:
The data is of two types: PRIMARY AND SECONDARY. Data are the facts presented to the
researcher from the study environment. The method of data collection in my study is
SECONDARY only. Because I have collected all the data from books and from websites.

FINDINGS

Trading by numbers- SeventeenTips

37

You can never have too many tips or tricks up your sleeve when you are trading. Most of the tips
included here are received wisdom, trading truisms that you should remember. They apply to all
markets, but are particularly useful in a volatile and technical market like FOREX.
1. Pay attention to the market. Exit and enter trades based on market information. Dont
wait for a price you think the currency should hit when the market has changed direction
on you.
2. There are times when, due to lack of liquidity or excessive volatility, you should not trade
at all. On a similar note, never trade when you are sick. You cannot count on yourself to
be alert to shifts of the market, and make good decisions.
3. Trading systems that work in an up market may not work in a down market, and a system
that works for trending markets, or for range bound markets may not work in other
markets. Have a system for each type of market.
4. Up market and down market patterns are always there, but you have to look for the
dominant trends. Always select trades that move with the trends.
5. During the blowout stage of the market, either up or down, the risk managers are usually
issuing margin call position liquidation orders. They dont generally check the screen to
see whats overbought or sold; they just keep issuing liquidation orders. Make sure you
stay out of their way.
6. Trust your instincts. If something feels wrong about a trade, dont make it. Its better to be
superstitious than to loose money.
7. Buy when you hear the rumour, sell when you hear the news.
8. The first and the last ticks are always the most expensive. Get in the market late, and out
early. And never trade in the direction of a gap, either opening or closing.
9. When everyone else is in, it is time for you to get out. If a stock or currency is
overbought, it is time to exit your position.
10. Dont worry about missing out on an opportunity to trade. There will always be another
good one just around the corner. If the trade you are considering doesnt meet all your
entry signals but it seems to good to pass up, remember, you are never going to run out of
trades you can make.
11. Dont get too confident. No one can predict the market with 100% accuracy. You need to
always expect the unexpected. If you become uneasy, or the market becomes choppy, exit
your trades.
12. Dont turn three losing trades in a row into six. When you are off, turn off the screen, do
something else. Often the best way to break a streak of consecutive loses is to not trade
for a day.
13. But, dont stop trading whwn you are on a winning streak.
14. Measure your success by the profit made in a day, not on a trade. It is even better to
measure it over two or three days. A successful traders goal is to make money, not to win
on every trade.
15. Scalpers reduce the number of variables affecting market risk by being in a position only
for a few seconds. Day traders reduce market risk by being in trades for minutes. If you
38

convert a scalp or day trade into a position trade, you probably didnt analyze the risks of
the trade properly.
16. There is no secret to understanding the market. You can spend much of your valuable
time and money looking for these kind of secrets. It is better to take the time to create a
solid trading system, and realize that the success is hardwork.
17. Never ask for someone else opinion, they probably didnt do as much hardwork as you
did anyways.

39