MANITOBA SEPTEMBER

EMBARGOED UNTIL: 5 AM - SEPTEMBER 26, 2016

PRINT EXCLUSIVE: POSTMEDIA NETWORK INC
Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 2,501 Manitoba Residents by Smart IVR on September 15-16, 2016. A mixture of landlines
and cell phones were surveyed. Margin of error: +/- 1.96%, 19 times out of 20. Results were weighed by age and gender based
on the 2011 Canadian Census.

B2

"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected

by copyright. The information and/or data may only
be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper
credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.

PC HONEYMOON CONTINUES
September 26, 2016 (Ottawa, ON) A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll conducted for the Winnipeg Sun
nds the honeymoon continues for Brian Pallister while Steve Ashton leads among NDP voters as their
preferred choice for leader. The Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of error of +/- 1.96%, 19 times out
of 20.
Five months after being elected to an overwhelming majority government, the PCs led by Brian Pallister
continue to enjoy a honeymoon with voters, said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. If an
election were held today, a majority of decided voters would support the new government (55%) including
a staggering 68% outside of Winnipeg.
The NDP are beginning to focus on their internal rebuilding and leadership contest and continue to have a
solid base of 30% among decided voters. We would not expect to see them make gains until after a new
leader is in place or signicant government mistakes are made.
The Manitoba Liberals are similarly leaderless and have returned to historically normal levels with just 9%
of decided vote, ahead of the Greens at 6%. Without a Trudeau Liberal drafting eect, it may be hard to get
any signicant momentum in the years ahead, but a new leader and the contest that lead to their selection
may provide some needed attention and momentum.
Among NDP voters, Steve Ashton (31%) and Wab Kinew (24%) lead a crowded eld of potential
candidates with Kevin Chief sitting in third. Chief recently announced he would not seek the leadership
meaning his support and the "someone else" option leaves room for new contenders to grow, nished
Maggi.
About Mainstreet Research
Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of
government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public
opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British
Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling rm
in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only
polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.
-30Available for Interview from Ottawa: Quito Maggi, quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
For more information: David Valentin, (514) 913-5524 - david@mainstreetresearch.ca

B3

If a provincial election were held today which

party would you support?

55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5

NDP

PC

Liberal

Green

Undecided

16-Sept

9-Jun

14-Apr

5-Apr

29-Mar

19-Mar

12-Mar

20-Feb

11-Feb

27-Jan

7-Jan

B4

If a provincial election were held today which

party would you support?

7-Jan 33%

17%

27-Jan 39%

21%
15%

11-Feb 41%

14%

17%

20-Feb 40%

5% 24%

16%

17%

35%

19%

19-Mar

36%

18%

17%

29-Mar

36%

18%

18%

5-Apr

39%

14-Apr

46%

21%

5% 24%
6% 22%
7% 22%
7% 7%

23%

46%
10

5% 26%

13%

9-Jun 50%

5% 22%

16%

19%

30

40

50

19%

5% 5% 17%

25%
20

26%
6% 21%

17%

12-Mar

16-Sept

7%

6% 5% 18%
60

70

80

90

100

B5

If a provincial election were held today which

party would you support?

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

Male

Female

PC

40%

45%

54%

50%

47%

47%

NDP

26%

26%

23%

27%

28%

23%

Liberal

4%

7%

7%

6%

6%

6%

Green

11%

5%

1%

2%

3%

7%

Undecided

18%

16%

15%

16%

15%

18%

Sample

276

401

742

1,082

1,222

1,279

Manitoba

Winnipeg

Rest of MB

PC

46%

42%

56%

NDP

25%

31%

17%

Liberal

6%

6%

6%

Green

5%

7%

3%

Undecided

18%

15%

19%

2,501

1,377

1,124

Sample

NDP

PC

Liberal

Green

16-Sept

9-Jun

14-Apr

5-Apr

29-Mar

19-Mar

12-Mar

20-Feb

11-Feb

27-Jan

7-Jan

B6

DECIDED AND LEANING

60

55

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

B7

DECIDED AND LEANING

7-Jan 44%

23%

27%

27-Jan 52%

20%

11-Feb 51%

21%

20-Feb 50%
12-Mar

43%

19-Mar

44%

29-Mar

45%

5-Apr

50%

14-Apr

55%

21%

9%

20%

7%

23%

7%

24%

8%
17%

26%

8%

30%
40

50

60

9%
11%

28%

30

7%

24%

24%

20

6%

24%

24%

55%
10

20%

23%

27%

9-Jun 58%
16-Sept

6%

70

80

9%
6%

9%

6%

90

100

B8

If the provincial election were held today which

party would you support?
[DECIDED AND LEANING]

Manitoba 55%

30%

Winnipeg 47%

9%

35%

9%

RoM 68%
Male

56%

Female

53%

8%

33%

7%

28%

10%

31%

35-49 55%

11%
31%

50-64 61%

9%
12%

8%
27%

65+ 59%
10

8%

22%

18-34 46%

6%

9%

32%
20

30

40

50

60

70

6%

7%
80

90

100

B9

The NDP will be holding a leadership race to choose

a new leader. Of the following candidates, whom
would you vote for if you could to be the next NDP
Leader? [NDP VOTERS ONLY]

30
25
20
15
10

Not Sure 8%

Someone Else 13%

Matt Wiebe 3%

Theresa Oswald 3%

Wab Kinew 24%

Kevin Chief 15%

Steve Ashton 31%

James Allum 3%

B10

The NDP will be holding a leadership race to choose

a new leader. Of the following candidates, whom
would you vote for if you could to be the next NDP
Leader? [NDP VOTERS ONLY]

MB

31%

Winnipeg

29%

RoM

34%

Male

31%

Female

30%

15%
16%

30%

12%

35-49

30%

22%

33%

65+

30%

10

20

30

40

16%

9%
6%

24%

12%

24%

7%

12%
21%

5% 13%

30%
60

11%

16%

19%

50

9%

14%

27%

14%
13%

8%

37%

15%
15%

13%

20%

12%

18-34

50-64

24%

70

80

8%

10%

7%

90

100

B11

In your opinion, Should the city of Winnipeg

charge a new growth fee when building in new
developments?

90

13%

100

80

32%

60

37%

70

50
40
30
20

63%

55%

10

All

Decided

Yes

No

Not Sure

B12

In your opinion, Should the city of Winnipeg

charge a new growth fee when building in new
developments?

Winnipeg 55%

32%

Male

55%

33%

Female

55%

31%

18-34 52%

14%
21%

31%

50-64 60%

14%

35%

65+ 53%
10

12%

27%

35-49 56%

13%

5%

39%
20

30

40

50

60

8%
70

80

90

100

B13

In your opinion should the federal and/or

provincial government purchase the Port of
Churchill?

100
90
80
70
45%

60

40

62%

50

20

17%

30

55%

21%

10

All

Decided

Yes

No

Not Sure

B14

In your opinion should the federal and/or

provincial government purchase the Port of
Churchill?

All 21%

17%

Winnipeg 21%

19%

RoM 21%

14%

Male

21%

16%

Female

21%

18%

18-34 20%

16%

35-49 22%
50-64 18%

10

60%
65%
63%
61%
64%

20%
16%

65+ 26%
0

62%

58%
65%

15%
20

30

59%
40

50

60

70

80

90

100

B15

In your opinion should the province oer

nancial incentives to assist the Tolko mill in
The Pas?

100
90
80

40%

60

32%

70

40

19%

50

30
20

68%

41%

10

All

Decided

Yes

No

Not Sure

B16

In your opinion should the province oer

nancial incentives to assist the Tolko mill in
The Pas?

MB 41%

19%

Winnipeg 42%

20%

RoM 40%
Male

38%

Female

44%

43%

20%

42%
18%

20%

35-49 42%

38%
50%

18%

50-64 46%

40%

18%

65+ 49%
10

38%

17%

18-34 30%

40%

36%

20%
20

30

40

50

31%
60

70

80

90

100

B17

SCRIPT

If a provincial election were held today which party would you support?
Progressive Conservatives led by Brian Pallister
NDP led by Flor Marcelino
Liberal Party led by Rana Bokhari
Green Party led James Beddome
Undecided
And which party are you leaning towards voting for?
Progressive Conservatives led by Brian Pallister
NDP led by Flor Marcelino
Liberal Party led by Rana Bokhari
Green Party led James Beddome
Undecided
The NDP will be holding a leadership race to choose a new leader. Of the following candidates, whom
would you vote for if you could to be the next NDP Leader? [NDP VOTERS ONLY]
James Allum
Steve Ashton
Kevin Chief
Wab Kinew
Teresa Oswald
Matt Wiebe
Someone Else
Not Sure
In your opinion, Should the city of Winnipeg charge a new growth fee when building in new developments?
Yes
No
Not Sure
In your opinion should the federal and/or provincial government purchase the Port of Churchill?
Yes
No
Not Sure
In your opinion should the province oer nancial incentives to assist the Tolko mill in The Pas?
Yes
No
Not Sure

CALGARY GREENWAY

WHITBY

Most Accurate Pollster of the Calgary

Greenway by election.

Most Accurate Pollster of the

Whitby by election.

SASKATCHEWAN

MANITOBA

Most Active Pollster of Saskatchewans

general election, top results within MoE.

Most Active Pollster of Manitobas general

election, top results within MoE.

Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian
public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal
government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has
been the most accurate polling rm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral
election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority
government in the 2015 federal election.

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