To:

Interested Parties
From: GBA Strategies
Date: October 12, 2016

Angie Craig Has Momentum; Leads Jason Lewis in MN-2

Angie Craig has opened up a 4-point advantage over Jason Lewis in the race for
Minnesotas 2nd Congressional District. In a recent survey of likely voters taken last week1, Craig
leads Lewis 46 42 percent, with Independent Paula Overby taking 7 percent. This is an
improvement from a 42 40 percent lead she held in a late September survey2, showing
momentum heading into the campaigns final weeks. The following are key findings from a
survey of 500 likely voters.

This is still an evenly divided district on partisanship. Without any names attached to the
candidates, voters in the 2nd District are split, with 46 percent supporting the Democrat
and 45 percent supporting a Republican candidate.

Hillary Clinton has solid lead over Donald Trump in Presidential race. This survey was
conducted and completed before the release of a tape showing Trump admitting to
inappropriate behavior with women, but even before those revelations, Hillary Clinton
was far ahead in MN-2. She leads Donald Trump by 45 35 percent with Gary Johnson
(13 percent) and Jill Stein (3 percent) far behind.

Craig expands lead over Lewis. DFL nominee Angie Craig leads Republican Jason
Lewis 46 42 percent, with 7 percent going to a third party candidate. This is an
improvement from a survey taken late last month that had her lead at 42 40 percent
(Overby was at 12 percent here).
Among voters who express the most enthusiasm for this race (rating their enthusiasm as a
10 on a 1-10 scale), Craigs advantage is a broad 53 41 percent.
When Paula Overbys supporters are allocated by their second choice, Craig maintains
her advantage over Lewis at 49 45 percent.

Survey of 500 likely voters in Minnesotas 2nd Congressional District was conducted by professional interviews
between October 4-6, 2016. A random sample of likely voters was pulled from a voter fie. Respondents were
interviewed by live dialers on land lines and cell phones. Results carry a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points
at the 95 percent confidence interval.
2
Survey of 500 likely voters in Minnesotas 2nd Congressional District was conducted by professional interviews
between September 20-22, 2016. A random sample of likely voters was pulled from a voter fie. Respondents were
interviewed by live dialers on land lines and cell phones. Results carry a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points
at the 95 percent confidence interval.
1

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