To:

Interested Parties

From:

Dan Judy and Jon McHenry

Date:

October 12, 2016

Re:

Highlights of IL 10 Congressional Survey

North Star Opinion Research conducted a survey of 400 registered voters in Illinois 10th
congressional district October 8-11, 2016. Congressman Bob Dold remains well-positioned to
win reelection, despite the headwinds of an unpopular presidential nominee. Highlights of the
survey are:
1. The district retains its Democratic tilt. Democrats hold a 6-point advantage in selfidentified party, 34 to 28 percent, and a 3-point advantage on the generic ballot for congress, 44
to 41 percent.
2. Donald Trump is unpopular in the district, while Hillary Clinton has a net positive
image. Trump has a 28 to 64 percent favorable to unfavorable rating, compared to a 50 to 44
percent rating for Clinton. Clinton leads 53 to 31 percent on the ballot, with 7 percent for Gary
Johnson and 2 percent for Jill Stein.
3. Bob Dold continues to have a positive image in the district. Dold has a 45 to 32 percent
favorable-unfavorable rating, superior to both Trumps and Mark Kirks ratings.
4. Dold has expanded his lead since the summer. Dold now leads Brad Schneider by 50 to
43 percent, up from a lead inside the margin of error in August. Looking at likely voters those
who say they are absolutely certain or very likely to vote in November his lead remains 50-43.
Dold receives 53 percent of independent voters, one-fourth of Hillary Clinton voters, and twothirds of 3rd-party candidate voters.
As the national political environment deteriorates, many Republican candidates in swing districts
will need to run well ahead of Donald Trump to win their races. Bob Dold has consistently outpolled Trump by 20 points, and a campaign emphasizing his independence and record of
accomplishment for the 10th district has him in a solid position with under four weeks to go. A
strong and well-funded campaign will keep him on track to win reelection on November 8.
Methodology
The sample for this Survey of Registered Voters in IL 10, conducted October 8-11, 2016,
consists of 400 respondents selected randomly from a list of registered voters in the district who
were contacted by live interviewers. All respondents confirmed that they are registered to vote
in the county in which they live, and 36 percent of respondents were interviewed on a cell phone.
Demographic quotas were set to ensure the sample matches registration statistics in the district.