October 13, 2016

To:
Interested Parties
From: John Anzalone / Brian Stryker
Re: MI CD 1 poll findings
Lon Johnson leads Jack Bergman by one point (43% Johnson / 42% Bergman / 7% Bostow /
7% undecided) in the race for Michigans 1st CD. Johnson is better known and better liked than
Bergman, and he is winning crucial segments of an electorate a Democrat needs to win.
Key Findings

Lon Johnson is ahead of Jack Bergman. Johnsons holds a one-point lead (43%
Johnson / 42% Bergman).

The race has trended our way since August, as Jack Bergmans favorability
continues to decline. In August, Jack Bergman had a four-point lead (42% Johnson /
46% Bergman) and a 2:1 favorable to unfavorable ratio (31% favorable / 15%
unfavorable). In the last two months, the number of people who are favorable towards
him has stayed the same or declined (30% favorable) while twice as many people have
an unfavorable view towards him (29% unfavorable).

Jack Bergman is sinking with seniors, due to his desire to privatize Social
Security. Lon Johnson holds a 16-point lead with voters 65 and older (53% Johnson /
37% Bergman), a massive shift from our August poll (40% Johnson / 46% Bergman)
before Jack Bergmans desire to privatize Social Security came to light. Voters 65 and
older say what they have heard about Lon Johnson recently is mostly positive (37%
positive / 34% negative), while what they have heard about Jack Bergman has been
mostly negative (32% positive / 44% negative).

The following findings are based on a poll of n=500 likely November 2016 voters in MI CD 1 conducted
October 10-12, 2016 via landline and cellphone. The expected margin of sampling error at the 95%
confidence level is + 4.4%