2016 Early Voter Methodology

The 2016 early voter analysis focused on battleground states with sufficient early vote data for
inclusion. The 13 battleground states designated by NBC News for the 2016 election are
Arizona, Nevada, Colorado, Ohio, New Hampshire, Iowa, Virginia, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia,
Florida, Pennsylvania and North Carolina.
Many states provide alternate methods of voting other than visiting ones polling place on
Election Day; these methods include, but are not limited to, mail-in absentee voting, no-excuse
absentee voting, in-person no-excuse absentee voting and/or early in-person voting. Some
states utilize a variety of these methods while others are more restrictive.
For analysis purposes, early voting refers to any type of voting that occurs before Election
Dayabsentee, mail or in-person early voting. To obtain updated records of early voters on a
timely basis, TargetSmart updates their databases as soon as Secretaries of State and State
Election Boards make this data available. This information is then used by the NBC News Data
Analytics Lab for independent analysis.
For analysis of historical 2012 data, TargetSmart has provided the NBC News Data Analytics Lab
with 2012 voter snapshots and turnout histories for nearly all states in order to examine the
2012 electorate as well the vote histories of 2016 voters.
The partisan analysis of early voters relies on two different sources. In Arizona, Florida,
Colorado, Iowa, North Carolina, Nevada, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, registration
applications in these states ask voters to affiliate with a particular political party. In Georgia,
Michigan, Virginia, Ohio and Wisconsin, partisan information is either not collected as part of
ones registration record or is unavailable. In these states, a model-based estimate of a voters
party affiliation was created independently by TargetSmart and provided to the Data Analytics
Lab for utilization in the analysis.
Overall, the partisan analysis grouped early voters into three categories: Democrat, Republican
and Other. Democrats and Republicans refer to early voters who are explicitly affiliated as
Democrats or Republicans on their registration records. Any voter that was not affiliated as a
Republican or Democrat was grouped into Other. The following additional affiliations
appeared in at least one or more states and were aggregated into Other: Green, Independent,
Libertarian, No Party, Other and Unaffiliated.
In Georgia, Michigan, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin, where TargetSmarts modeled partisan
scores were used, voters were placed into three categories: Republican, Democrat and Other.
Secretaries of State and State Board of Elections update and make available early voting
records in varying frequencies.

What is a voter file?

The Data Analytics Lab at NBC News utilizes voter file information provided by TargetSmarta
leading provider of political data and analytic services for a number of organizations and
campaigns. TargetSmart builds and maintains a high-quality database of voter registration files
from all 50 states plus the District of Columbia, acquired from state and county sources.
Aggregated together, the national file includes more than 190 million registered voters. This
data allows experts at the Data Analytics Lab to conduct independent, non-partisan analysis on
voting behavior and turnout historically.
Voter files differ state to state, both in terms of their formats as well as the data fields they
contain. In general, voter files contain basic demographic information about registered persons
in each state such as their gender and age. Vote history information is also provided but does
not contain any details about who an individual voted for.
Though TargetSmart expertly aggregates and updates their national file for easier, faster
analysis, the timeliness and comprehensiveness of the data provided varies by state. For
example, while some states such as Florida provide updated lists of their voter registration
records almost daily during the final months of presidential election years, other states provide
far fewer updates.
In some states such as North Carolina, Florida and Georgia, racially-identifying information is
collected and disseminated as part of ones voter registration record. In most states, however,
this information is unavailable.
Voter file data is considered especially valuable because it is an actual record of every person
who turned out in an election. While survey research has traditionally been a source of valuable
voter and electorate information, it is most useful for understanding the opinions, attitudes and
motivations of voters. Voter registration data is a more comprehensive and precise source of
information regarding voter turnout as well as the demographic composition of the electorate.
Analysts at the NBC News Data Analytics Lab will utilize TargetSmart data throughout the 2016
election cycle.