October 13, 2016

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Interested Parties
Ben Tulchin, Ben Krompak and Kiel Brunner; Tulchin Research
California Congressional District 7 Poll Results Bera Extends Lead as
Voters Learn About Jones and Trumps Records with Women

Tulchin Research recently conducted a tracking survey among 400 likely November 2016
voters in Californias 7th Congressional District to assess the state of the race between
Congressman Ami Bera and his Republican challenger Scott Jones. Our polling finds Bera
has opened up an eleven-point lead over his opponent (Bera 50% to Jones 39%) his
largest margin to-date. While Bera has consistently led Jones in our polling, Jones has
clearly lost significant ground in the race following the recently reported sexual harassment
allegation made against him by a former staffer as well as the revelation of Republican
presidential nominee Donald Trumps past boasting about sexually assaulting women.
Jones has lost a net 8 points since our tracking poll conducted in mid-September (Bera
48%-Jones 45%).
CA-7 Vote: Bera Expands Lead
Ami Bera
Scott Jones
Undecided
Bera Jones

Jul 5-10, 2016

47%
43%
10%
+4

Sep 11-13, 2016

48%
45%
7%
+3

Oct 10-12, 2016

50%
39%
11%
+11

Joness Standing with Voters Has Declined Significantly

Joness image has taken a significant hit over the past month, with his net favorable rating
plummeting to -7 (31% favorable to 38% unfavorable), a net 16-point negative shift from
where he stood with voters just one month ago (28% favorable to 19% unfavorable, +9
net favorable). Clearly voters have soured on Jones as they have learned more
information about the allegations he faces and have been exposed to advertising about
his record of mismanagement and poor judgment in the Sheriffs office.
California Congressional District 7: Favorability
Total Favorable

Scott
Jones

Total Unfavorable
Favorable Unfavorable

Jul 5-10, 2016

30%
16%

Sep 11-13, 2016

28%
19%

Oct 10-12, 2016

31%
38%

+14

+9

-7

Tulchin Research Polling Memo

Bera Benefits from an Improving Political Climate

Our poll additionally finds real movement in the presidential race in this district, with Hillary
Clinton now leading Donald Trump by 17-points (50%-33%) a net 14-point shift in her
direction since our poll conducted last month (43%-40%).
CA-7: Presidential Vote
Hillary Clinton
Donald Trump
Clinton Trump

Jul 5-10, 2016

45%
41%
+4

Sep 11-13, 2016

43%
40%
+3

Oct 10-12, 2016

50%
33%
+17

Trumps decline is further reflected in his -36 net favorable rating (30% favorable to 66%
unfavorable), with two-thirds of voters in the district viewing him negatively, including 57
percent who view him very unfavorably. His numbers were already quite bad in this district
in our initial poll conducted here in July (34% favorable to 63% unfavorable, -29 net
favorable) but he has now reached a new low and is a significant drag on the Republican
ticket here and on a now damaged Scott Jones.
California Congressional District 7: Favorability
Total Favorable

Donald
Trump

Total Unfavorable
Favorable Unfavorable

Jul 5-10, 2016

34%
63%

Sep 11-13, 2016

33%
62%

Oct 10-12, 2016

30%
66%

-29

-29

-36

In conclusion, our poll finds Congressman Ami Bera has made significant progress here
and is well positioned to win re-election. Scott Joness standing with voters has eroded
significantly and he is struggling to remain competitive as both he and the presidential
nominee of his party find themselves engulfed in controversy over their treatment of
women.

Survey Methodology: Tulchin Research has conducted three telephone surveys in 2016
in Californias 7th Congressional District:

From July 5-10, 2016, Tulchin Research conducted a survey among 400 likely
November 2016 general election voters.
From September 11-13, 2016, Tulchin Research conducted a survey among 400
likely November 2016 general election voters.
From October 10-12, 2016, Tulchin Research conducted a survey among 400
likely November 2016 general election voters.

The surveys were conducted by live professional interviewers calling both landlines and
cell phones. The margin of error for the sample is +/- 4.9 percentage points.