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Interested Parties

From: GBA Strategies


Date: October 18, 2016
PA 16 Tracking Survey
With three weeks to go until Election Day, Pennsylvanias open 16th District race has become
a virtual tossup as Democrat Christina Hartman now trails Republican Lloyd Smucker by just 3
points (42 to 45 percent), with Libertarian Shawn House at 9 percent. Developments at the top of the
ticket have contributed to a significant partisan shift among likely voters in this historically
Republican seat since our baseline survey in July. After the latest revelations against Donald Trump,
Hillary Clinton now enjoys a 4-point lead in the presidential race (47 to 43 percent), a reversal of her
position in July. In the Senate race, Katie McGinty has made smaller gains in the Senate race and
now trails Pat Toomey by 8 points (43 to 51 percent). And Hartman, who trailed the better-known
Smucker by 10 points in July (34 to 44 percent), is now within the margin of error.
Our survey1 of 400 likely voters reveals an electorate that is sharply divided along partisan
lines. Both Hartman and Smucker enjoy identical margins (89 to 4 percent) within their respective
bases. While Republicans enjoy a significant registration advantage in this district 38 percent
Democrat, 50 percent Republican among likely 2016 voters their margin shrinks to just 5 points in
partisan identification (37 percent Democrat, 42 percent Republican). This still puts the onus on
Hartman to win Independent voters, and thats exactly what she is now doing, moving from a 26point deficit in July to a 7-point advantage today (37 to 30 percent). Underscoring the partisan trends
in the district, there is a clear enthusiasm gap between the parties, with Democrats 6 points more
likely to say they will definitely vote next month. As a result, Hartman trails by just 1 point (44 to 45
percent) among these most likely voters.
Lloyd Smucker, a longtime state legislator, entered the race with relatively high name ID, but
he has done little to improve his standing since then, and most of the change in his numbers has been
increasing negatives; he is now viewed favorably by 26 percent of likely voters (+4 since July) and
unfavorably by 32 percent (+12 since July). Hartman, on the other hand, entered the race virtually
unknown but has seen her name ID double based on an aggressive earned and paid media effort.
The bulk of Hartmans gains in this race have come in Lancaster County, where both
candidates have been on the air for three weeks now and where Republican special interests just
announced they will spend $400,000 in an effort to halt Hartmans momentum in this race. She
currently enjoys a double-digit lead in the Berks and Chester County portions of the district (both in
the Philadelphia market) but has more room to grow in these Democratic-leaning areas. The
momentum in this race is clearly with Hartman, but she must withstand the attacks that will come as
Republicans seek to hold onto their increasingly precarious majority in the House.

GBA Strategies conducted a survey of 400 likely November voters on October 15-17, 2016. Approximately 40 percent of interviews were
conducted via cell phone. This survey carries a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level.

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