KGW-Oregonian Poll 2016

OREGON STATEWIDE
LIKELY VOTER SURVEY

SUMMARY & CROSS TABULATIONS
OCTOBER 18, 2016
www.rileyresearch.com
10200 SW Eastridge St, Suite 120, Portland, OR 97225
phone [503] 222-4179 fax [503] 222-4313
INTRODUCTION & METHODOLOGY

On behalf of KGW TV, The Oregonian, and OregonLive, Riley Research Associates conducted a statewide telephone survey among
608 registered voters who indicated they were either very likely or certain to vote in the upcoming November election.
In past polls only those with a record of having voted in at least two of the last four elections were included. In this race, because
many new voters have registered in the past year, we allowed new and less likely voters to participate, provided they indicated they
are either certain or extremely likely to vote in the November 8th election.
A sample of 608 is considered accurate to within +/-3.97 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence. The scientific telephone poll
took place between October 4th and October 14th, 2016.
The sample demographics were closely monitored to ensure they match those of Oregons likely voters, including accurate
representation for gender, age, political party, and region. Both landlines and cell phones were included in the sample. Candidate
names were read in rotating order to respondents in order to eliminate any sense of preference. Candidates names were associated
with the political parties they represent.
Regions are composed of the following counties:
Portland
Metro
Clackamas
Columbia
Multnomah
Washington
Willamette
Valley
Benton
Lane
Linn
Marion
Polk
Yamhill
Central
Crook
Deschutes
Hood River
Jefferson
Wasco
Eastern
Baker
Morrow
Gilliam
Sherman
Grant
Umatilla
Harney
Union
Klamath
Wallowa
Lake
Wheeler
Malheur
Coast
Coos
Clatsop
Curry
Lincoln
Tillamook
South
Douglas
Jackson
Josephine
KGW TV 8, The Oregonian & OregonLive.com / Likely Voter Survey

October 18, 2016
EXECUTIVE OVERVIEW
State of Oregon
Half of Oregonians believe Oregon is on the right track (50%), while two-fifths feel it is on the wrong track (41%), and 9% are
unsure. However, feelings are stronger among those who say Oregon is going in the wrong direction, with 23% saying they
strongly feel that way, compared to just 12% who strongly feel it is on the right track.
Presidential Race
Hillary Clinton is poised to win Oregon this November, with 46% of likely voters planning on casting their vote for Clinton,
compared to 36% who plan to vote for Donald Trump. Voters feel strongly about their respective candidates, with very few saying
they are only somewhat likely to vote for their candidate, and very few are undecided (4%).
Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein each received 5% of the vote, while 4% have plans to write-in a
different candidate.
Those who plan to vote for Hillary Clinton tend to support her as a candidate (55%). Nearly one-third cited experience and
qualifications as the main reasons they are voting for Clinton (30%). Most of the remaining 43% of Clinton supporters are voting
for Clinton because she is the lesser of two evils (25%).
While fewer will vote for Trump, those who do support Trump appear to support him more strongly than those who plan to vote for
Hillary Clinton. Some 62% say they are voting for Trump rather than voting against Clinton. The top reasons Oregonians are
voting for Trump include his status as a political outsider (14%), his business expertise (13%), and his conservative values (12%);
14% are voting for Trump because he is the lesser of two evils, while 8% say Clinton is corrupt and 7% say Clinton is not
trustworthy.
Gary Johnson supporters tend to feel he is better than the other candidates and is trustworthy. Jill Steins supporters feel she is
better than the other candidates, is trustworthy, and has business expertise.

October 18, 2016
EXECUTIVE OVERVIEW (CONTINUED)

Oregon Governor
Nearly half of Oregonians plan on casting their vote for Democrat and Working Families candidate Kate Brown (48%), with Bud
Pierce trailing by 14%, with 34% of the likely vote. A majority of voters feel strongly about their candidate, with most saying they
are very likely to vote for their respective candidate.
Other candidates in the running are only tracking at 1% to 2% each, and 13% remain undecided as to which candidate they will
vote for in November.
Ballot Measure 97
Support and opposition for Ballot Measure 97 is at a virtual tie, with 47% indicating they will likely vote to oppose the measure,
and 46% saying they will vote to support it. Those who plan to oppose the measure tend to feel a bit stronger about their
opposition than those who are supporting the measure. Some remain undecided about the measure (7%).

October 18, 2016
RESULTS
Q1. First of all, in terms of the way things are going here in Oregon, would you say things are on the right track, or going in the wrong
direction? (Strongly or somewhat?)
GENDER
Total
65+
VOTING PROPENSITY
CEN
TRAL
SOUTH
ERN
2/4
3/4
4/4
148
24%
148
24%
254
42%
197
32%
120
20%
37
6%
272
45%
144
24%
50
8%
49
8%
57
9%
36
6%
177
29%
150
25%
107
18%
174
29%
30
5%
578
95%
Right track
Right track: Strongly
Right track: Somewhat
50%
12
38
47%
13
34
52%
11
40
60%
7
53
60%
14
46
51%
11
40
44%
14
30
39%
14
26
74%
21
53
18%
3
16
48%
7
41
54%
19
35
58%
15
43
48%
6
42
22%
2
20
37%
6
31
51%
23
28
44%
19
25
56%
8
48
47%
11
36
47%
14
33
47%
16
31
57%
13
43
49%
12
37
Wrong track
Wrong track: Somewhat
Wrong track: Strongly
41%
18
23
45%
18
27
38%
18
20
26%
13
13
34%
14
20
41%
17
24
49%
22
27
50%
20
30
18%
10
7
73%
25
48
38%
20
18
41%
24
16
32%
14
18
42%
19
22
66%
24
42
59%
29
31
39%
14
25
50%
22
28
32%
15
16
48%
21
27
43%
24
19
44%
14
30
33%
30
3
42%
17
24
Don't know / Refused

Refused / Don't know
9%
9
8%
8
11%
11
14%
14
6%
6
8%
8
7%
7
11%
11
8%
8
9%
9
14%
14
5%
5
10%
10
10%
10
12%
12
4%
4
11%
11
6%
6
12%
12
5%
5
10%
10
9%
9
10%
10
9%
9
WILL VOTE FOR

CLIN
TON
TRUMP
CLIN
TON
178.15
.001
PRIMARY ELECTION VOTE

SAND
CAR
ERS
TRUMP
CRUZ
SON
KASICH
51.23
.001
280
46%
216
36%
78
13%
117
19%
83
14%
18
3%
11
2%
10
2%
270
44%
338
56%
Right track
Right track: Strongly
Right track: Somewhat
50%
12
38
76%
21
55
14%
4
11
82%
33
49
76%
18
58
11%
1
10
11%
11
50%
10
40
47%
10
37
51%
13
38
Wrong track
Wrong track: Somewhat
Wrong track: Strongly
41%
18
23
15%
10
5
78%
26
52
8%
5
3
17%
10
7
80%
29
51
83%
28
56
91%
18
73
50%
40
10
42%
20
22
41%
16
24

Refused / Don't know
9%
9
9%
9
8%
8
10%
10
7%
7
10%
10
6%
6
9%
9
11%
11
8%
8
221.40
.001
173.88
.001
0/4-1/4
32.19
.001
INTERVIEW DATE
10/410/1010/9
10/14
608
Chi Square
COAST
MOTOR VOTER
105
17%
38.07
.001
NAV
EAST
ERN
95
16%
Total
55-64
REGION
WILLA
PDX
METTE
METRO VALLEY
112
18%
6.25
.181
45-54
MINOR
PARTY
323
53%
Total Participants
35-44
REPUB
LICAN
285
47%
Chi Square
18-34
REGISTERED POLITICAL PARTY

DEMO
CRAT
608
Total Participants
MALE
AGE
FE
MALE
3.95
.412

October 18, 2016
YES
8.42
.077
NO
Q2. In this year's presidential election, the candidates on the ballot will include: (Aided)
Which of these four presidential candidates are most likely to get your vote?
GENDER
Total
FE
MALE
DEMO
CRAT
MINOR
PARTY
CEN
TRAL
SOUTH
ERN
2/4
3/4
4/4
148
24%
148
24%
254
42%
197
32%
120
20%
37
6%
272
45%
144
24%
50
8%
49
8%
57
9%
36
6%
177
29%
150
25%
107
18%
174
29%
30
5%
578
95%
Democrat Hillary Clinton

Democrat Hillary Clinton Very likely
Democrat Hillary Clinton Somewhat likely
46%
42
38%
35
53%
48
48%
41
46%
41
47%
45
49%
45
41%
37
78%
73
9%
6
43%
38
35%
30
61%
57
41%
36
14%
12
33%
27
32%
26
39%
33
42%
35
43%
40
50%
47
50%
47
43%
40
46%
42
Republican Donald Trump
36%
32
41%
39
30%
25
22%
20
33%
25
34%
30
41%
37
43%
41
6%
5
77%
71
28%
23
41%
41
23%
19
40%
37
66%
56
47%
47
46%
42
39%
39
32%
26
40%
38
32%
28
38%
35
27%
20
36%
33
10
5%
2
7%
3
3%
1
10%
5
5%
2
6%
2
3%
1
1%
1
2%
1
5%
2
10%
5
5%
5
4%
1
6%
1
2%
2
6%
6
4%
4
6%
6
9%
5
4%
1
3%
2
2%
1
10%
7
4%
2
Green Party Jill Stein

Green Party candidate Jill
Stein - Very likely
Green Party candidate Jill
Stein - Somewhat likely
5%
3
5%
3
5%
3
13%
7
6%
4
2%
1
1%
1
5%
2
7%
4
1%
-
6%
2
11%
11
4%
2
6%
3
10%
6
7%
4
6%
6
7%
5
5%
4
4%
2
3%
1
7%
3
5%
3
Undecided
Undecided
4%
4%
5%
5%
4%
4%
4%
4%
3%
3%
5%
5%
4%
4%
6%
6%
4%
4%
4%
4%
7%
7%
5%
5%
4%
4%
3%
3%
2%
2%
6%
6%
7%
7%
8%
8%
6%
6%
3%
3%
5%
5%
5%
5%
7%
7%
4%
4%
Other / Write-in
Other / Write-in candidate
4%
4
4%
4
4%
4
4%
4
6%
6
7%
7
2%
2
4%
4
3%
3
5%
5
8%
8
3%
3
3%
3
4%
4
6%
6
8%
8
5%
5
3%
3
5%
5
5%
5
7%
7
2%
2
7%
7
4%
4
61.54
.005
NAV
EAST
ERN
105
17%
24.76
.003
65+
REPUB
LICAN
95
16%
Chi Square
55-64
334.84
.001
105.04
.001
COAST
0/4-1/4
MOTOR VOTER
112
18%
Libertarian Gary Johnson

- Very likely
- Somewhat likely
45-54
VOTING PROPENSITY
323
53%
35-44
REGION
WILLA
PDX
METTE
METRO VALLEY
285
47%

- Very likely
- Somewhat likely
18-34
608
Total Participants
MALE
AGE
YES
41.65
.036

October 18, 2016
NO
6.38
.702
Q2. In this year's presidential election, the candidates on the ballot will include: (Aided)
Which of these four presidential candidates are most likely to get your vote? (Continued)
Total
Total Participants
WILL VOTE FOR

CLIN
TON
TRUMP

SAND
CAR
ERS
TRUMP
CRUZ
SON
CLIN
TON
KASICH
INTERVIEW DATE
10/410/1010/9
10/14
608
280
46%
216
36%
78
13%
117
19%
83
14%
18
3%
11
2%
10
2%
270
44%
338
56%
Democrat Hillary Clinton

Democrat Hillary Clinton - Very likely
Democrat Hillary Clinton - Somewhat likely
46%
42
4
100%
91
9
97%
94
4
76%
70
6
2%
2
30%
20
10
45%
40
5
47%
43
4

Republican Donald Trump - Very likely
Republican Donald Trump - Somewhat likely
36%
32
4
100%
90
10
3%
3
1
92%
87
5
78%
72
6
100%
82
18
40%
40
-
39%
34
5
33%
30
3

Libertarian Gary Johnson - Very likely
Libertarian Gary Johnson - Somewhat likely
5%
2
2
1%
1
-
1%
1
1%
1
11%
6
6
20%
20
4%
1
3
5%
3
2
Green Party Jill Stein

Green Party candidate Jill Stein - Very likely
Green Party candidate Jill Stein - Somewhat likely
5%
3
2
1%
1
12%
8
4
5%
2
3
5%
3
2
Undecided
Undecided
4%
4
3%
3
2%
2
10%
10
6%
6
4%
4
Other / Write-in
Other / Write-in candidate
4%
4
4%
4
2%
2
11%
11
1%
1
7%
7
Chi Square
496.00
.001
340.23
.001
18.55
.029

October 18, 2016
Q3. Which one issue is leading you to support Democrat Hillary Clinton?
GENDER
Total
Total Participants
Support my candidate
Political experience
(More / Better)
Liberal / Progressive
values (What they
represent / stand
for)
Women's issues
Economy / Business
expertise
Temperament /
Diplomacy /
Statesmanship /
More presidential
Healthcare position
Trustworthy / Honest /
Trust to do what
they say
Social justice / Equity /
Race relations
Environmental
protection / Issues
Education reform /
Financial position
Deals / trade / treaties /
TPP / NAFTA
Immigration positions /
US Border issues /
Dealing with
immigration
Will improve economy
Jobs - Will protect /
save / create jobs
Terrorism / Foreign
threats / Military
Supreme Court
nominations
AGE
FE
MALE
MALE
18-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
DEMO
CRAT
65+
REPUB
LICAN
REGION
MINOR
PARTY
NAV
WILLA
PDX
METTE
METRO VALLEY
EAST
ERN
VOTING PROPENSITY
CEN
TRAL
SOUTH
ERN
2/4
3/4
4/4
276
106
38%
170
62%
51
18%
44
16%
49
18%
71
26%
61
22%
197
71%
16
6%
50
18%
13
5%
163
59%
58
21%
7
3%
16
6%
18
7%
14
5%
72
26%
65
24%
52
19%
87
32%
13
5%
263
95%
55%
30
51%
25
58%
34
45%
14
61%
30
51%
31
55%
35
64%
39
56%
28
69%
50
46%
34
62%
31
56%
26
57%
45
86%
29
56%
25
22%
11
64%
50
49%
24
49%
25
69%
37
57%
37
62%
38
55%
30
15
4
3
4
6
4
2
8
4
5
5
2
6
3
1
2
2
5
3
2
4
4
4
2
-
14
-
13
13
3
1
10
-
3
3
4
3
14
2
2
2
3
2
1
5
5
4
3
2
2
3
3
6
-
2
2
14
6
-
7
-
1
4
3
-
2
2
2
1
2
2
14
1
0
1
1
2
-
1
-
1
-
6
-
1
1
1
-
2
-
1
0
COAST
0/4-1/4
MOTOR VOTER
YES

October 18, 2016
NO
Q3. Which one issue is leading you to support Democrat Hillary Clinton? (Continued)
GENDER
Total
Total Participants
Voting against other
candidate
Lesser of two evils /
Better than other
candidates
Corrupt / Unethical /
Illegal acts / Immoral /
Above the law
Not trustworthy / Not
truthful / Hypocritical /
Liar
Inexperienced / Not
qualified /
unaccomplished
Temperament - Lacks
necessary
temperament
Lacks political
experience / Outsider
/ Doesn't understand
Washington
Sexist / Misogynistic
Racist
Bad record / Failure /
Incompetent /
Unsuccessful
Does not understand /
relate to average
Americans
Compromises values to
get ahead
Miscellaneous
Miscellaneous
Chi Square
AGE
FE
MALE
MALE
35-44
45-54
55-64
DEMO
CRAT
REPUB
LICAN
MINOR
PARTY
NAV
EAST
ERN
VOTING PROPENSITY
CEN
TRAL
SOUTH
ERN
2/4
3/4
4/4
170
62%
51
18%
44
16%
49
18%
71
26%
61
22%
197
71%
16
6%
50
18%
13
5%
163
59%
58
21%
7
3%
16
6%
18
7%
14
5%
72
26%
65
24%
52
19%
87
32%
13
5%
263
95%
43%
48%
41%
53%
36%
49%
44%
36%
43%
31%
52%
38%
42%
43%
14%
44%
72%
36%
51%
46%
31%
43%
38%
44%
25
25
25
33
16
27
27
21
26
13
26
15
26
24
14
25
33
33
26
17
22
15
25
10
11
13
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
-
5
-
2
-
1
1
2
2
2
1
1
6
-
2
2
1
1
1
3
-
6
6
1
1
-
2
2
-
2
2
-
1
2
2
1
1
1%
1
1%
1
1%
1
2%
2
2%
2
1%
1
1%
1
2%
2
1%
1
6%
6
5%
5
1%
1
74.72
.675
134.79
.489
COAST
0/4-1/4
MOTOR VOTER
106
38%
99.70
.703
65+
REGION
WILLA
PDX
METTE
METRO VALLEY
276
27.18
.454
18-34
YES
79.17
.537

October 18, 2016
NO
14.90
.971
Q3. Which one issue is leading you to support Democrat Hillary Clinton? (Continued)
Total
Total Participants
WILL VOTE FOR

CLIN
TON
TRUMP

SAND
CAR
ERS
TRUMP
CRUZ
SON
CLIN
TON
KASICH
INTERVIEW DATE
10/410/1010/9
10/14
276
276
100%
0
0%
76
28%
88
32%
2
1%
0
0%
0
0%
3
1%
119
43%
157
57%
Political experience (More / Better)
Liberal / Progressive values (What they represent / stand for)
Women's issues
Economy / Business expertise
Temperament / Diplomacy / Statesmanship / More presidential
Healthcare position
Trustworthy / Honest / Trust to do what they say
Social justice / Equity / Race relations
Environmental protection / Issues
Education reform / Financial position
Deals / trade / treaties / TPP / NAFTA
Immigration positions / US Border issues / Dealing with immigration
Jobs - Will protect / save / create jobs
Terrorism / Foreign threats / Military
Supreme Court nominations
55%
30
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
1
55%
30
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
1
72%
41
5
5
3
4
3
4
1
3
1
1
1
44%
19
3
5
1
2
2
1
2
5
1
1
1
-
50%
50
-
33%
33
-
50%
29
4
3
3
2
1
2
3
1
2
1
1
-
60%
31
4
4
4
3
3
2
1
2
2
1
1
1
Voting against other candidate

Lesser of two evils / Better than other candidates
Corrupt / Unethical / Illegal acts / Immoral / Above the law
Not trustworthy / Not truthful / Hypocritical / Liar
Inexperienced / Not qualified / unaccomplished
Temperament - Lacks necessary temperament
Lacks political experience / Outsider / Doesn't understand Washington
Sexist / Misogynistic
Racist
Bad record / Failure / Incompetent / Unsuccessful
Does not understand / relate to average Americans
Compromises values to get ahead
43%
25
5
3
3
2
2
1
1
1
1
0
43%
25
5
3
3
2
2
1
1
1
1
0
28%
17
3
3
3
1
1
-
55%
34
2
5
3
1
2
5
1
1
-
50%
50
-
67%
33
33
-
49%
28
3
3
4
1
3
1
2
1
2
1
39%
23
6
3
1
3
1
2
1
1
-
1%
1
1%
1
1%
1
2%
2
1%
1
Miscellaneous
Miscellaneous
Chi Square
0.00
.999
74.45
.683
32.02
.231

October 18, 2016
Q3. Which one issue is leading you to support Republican Donald Trump?
GENDER
Total
Total Participants
Support my
candidate
Non-establishment /
Political outsider
Economy / Business
expertise
Conservative values
(What they
represent / stand
for)
Immigration positions
/ US Border
issues / Dealing
with immigration
Trustworthy / Honest
/ Trust to do what
they say
Terrorism / Foreign
threats / Military
Jobs - Will protect /
save / create jobs
Women's issues
(More / Better)
Deals / trade /
treaties / TPP /
NAFTA
Temperament /
Diplomacy /
Statesmanship /
More presidential
Supreme Court
nominations
AGE
FE
MALE
MALE
18-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
DEMO
CRAT
65+
REPUB
LICAN
REGION
MINOR
PARTY
NAV
WILLA
PDX
METTE
METRO VALLEY
EAST
ERN
VOTING PROPENSITY
CEN
TRAL
SOUTH
ERN
2/4
3/4
4/4
215
117
54%
98
46%
25
12%
31
14%
36
17%
60
28%
63
29%
16
7%
151
70%
33
15%
15
7%
62
29%
57
27%
33
15%
23
11%
26
12%
14
7%
56
26%
60
28%
33
15%
66
31%
8
4%
207
96%
62%
63%
60%
56%
55%
67%
63%
63%
31%
63%
64%
80%
61%
70%
52%
57%
62%
64%
57%
63%
64%
64%
63%
62%
14
14
14
14
20
17
15
15
11
16
15
13
12
21
17
12
17
14
13
14
11
20
17
13
10
13
18
10
14
22
15
14
10
17
38
12
12
12
11
19
14
13
12
16
14
15
21
14
13
12
14
10
13
13
11
14
12
12
11
13
12
13
13
1
1
1
1
1
1
6
-
1
1
7
7
2
2
3
-
3
2
1
1
13
10
COAST
0/4-1/4
MOTOR VOTER
YES

October 18, 2016
NO
Q3. Which one issue is leading you to support Republican Donald Trump? (Continued)
GENDER
Total
Total Participants
candidate
Lesser of two evils / Better
than other candidates
Corrupt / Unethical / Illegal
acts / Immoral / Above
the law
Liar
Bad record / Failure /
Incompetent /
Unsuccessful
Inexperienced / Not
qualified /
unaccomplished
Emails / Server
Racist
Temperament - Lacks
necessary
temperament
Compromises values to
get ahead
Miscellaneous
Miscellaneous
Chi Square
AGE
FE
MALE
MALE
35-44
45-54
55-64
REGION
MINOR
PARTY
NAV
WILLA
PDX
METTE
METRO VALLEY
EAST
ERN
VOTING PROPENSITY
CEN
TRAL
SOUTH
ERN
2/4
3/4
4/4
98
46%
25
12%
31
14%
36
17%
60
28%
63
29%
16
7%
151
70%
33
15%
15
7%
62
29%
57
27%
33
15%
23
11%
26
12%
14
7%
56
26%
60
28%
33
15%
66
31%
8
4%
207
96%
35%
36%
34%
36%
45%
28%
33%
35%
63%
34%
30%
20%
35%
30%
45%
35%
38%
21%
36%
35%
33%
35%
25%
35%
14
16
12
12
10
22
17
11
13
17
15
12
22
23
14
13
17
15
14
13
14
19
11
25
15
10
13
10
15
1
0
0
2
1
-
3
2
-
6
-
1
-
3
-
2
-
3
-
4
4
2
-
3
-
2
-
13
1
0
-
3%
3
1%
1
6%
6
8%
8
6%
6
3%
3
2%
2
6%
6
3%
3
6%
6
3%
3
3%
3
9%
9
14%
14
7%
7
2%
2
3%
3
2%
2
13%
13
3%
3
104.76
.001
11
108.41
.390
COAST
0/4-1/4
MOTOR VOTER
117
54%
115.31
.013
65+
REPUB
LICAN
215
19.34
.563
18-34

DEMO
CRAT
YES
55.30
.744

October 18, 2016
NO
38.90
.010
Q3. Which one issue is leading you to support Republican Donald Trump? (Continued)
Total
Total Participants
WILL VOTE FOR

CLIN
TON
TRUMP

SAND
CAR
ERS
TRUMP
CRUZ
SON
CLIN
TON
KASICH
INTERVIEW DATE
10/410/1010/9
10/14
215
0
0%
215
100%
0
0%
4
2%
75
35%
14
7%
11
5%
4
2%
105
49%
110
51%
Non-establishment / Political outsider
Conservative values (What they represent / stand for)
Immigration positions / US Border issues / Dealing with immigration
Women's issues
Deals / trade / treaties / TPP / NAFTA
Supreme Court nominations
62%
14
13
12
8
5
3
3
1
1
1
0
1
62%
14
13
12
8
5
3
3
1
1
1
0
1
25%
25
-
64%
17
9
11
9
7
7
3
1
-
64%
14
29
7
14
-
27%
9
9
9
-
75%
50
25
-
57%
10
9
15
7
6
3
2
2
1
2
1
1
66%
18
16
8
10
4
4
4
1
2

Bad record / Failure / Incompetent / Unsuccessful
Inexperienced / Not qualified / unaccomplished
Emails / Server
Racist
Temperament - Lacks necessary temperament
Compromises values to get ahead
35%
14
8
7
1
1
1
0
0
1
35%
14
8
7
1
1
1
0
0
1
75%
25
25
25
-
33%
12
9
11
1
-
36%
14
14
7
-
73%
36
9
18
9
25%
25
-
37%
13
9
10
2
1
1
1
1
33%
15
7
5
1
1
2
1
3%
3
3%
3
3%
3
6%
6
1%
1
Miscellaneous
Miscellaneous
Chi Square
0.00
.999
73.21
.793
12
24.88
.253

October 18, 2016
Q3. Which one issue is leading you to support Libertarian Gary Johnson?
GENDER
Total
AGE
FE
MALE
45-54
55-64
NAV
EAST
ERN
VOTING PROPENSITY
CEN
TRAL
SOUTH
ERN
2/4
3/4
4/4
4
15%
6
22%
4
15%
2
7%
4
15%
10
37%
11
41%
2
7%
11
41%
8
30%
1
4%
3
11%
2
7%
2
7%
15
56%
6
22%
3
11%
3
11%
3
11%
24
89%
Trust to do what they
say
Temperament /
Diplomacy /
Statesmanship / More
presidential
Conservative values
(What they represent /
stand for)
(More / Better)
Jobs - Will protect / save
/ create jobs
Terrorism / Foreign
threats / Military
values (What they
represent / stand for)
44%
15
44%
22
44%
-
55%
18
50%
25
33%
-
25%
25
50%
-
50%
25
20%
-
64%
27
50%
-
45%
18
50% 100%
13
-
67%
33
47%
20
33%
-
33%
-
67%
33
67%
33
42%
13
11
33
18
13
17
33
11
25
18
33
17
33
11
50
25
33
50
100
11
10
13
11
10
13

candidate
Better than other
candidates
Liar
44%
39%
56%
27%
50%
67%
50%
50%
50%
60%
27%
50%
55%
50%
33%
50%
40%
67%
33%
33%
33%
46%
33
28
44
27
25
50
25
50
50
40
18
50
45
25
33
50
33
50
33
33
33
11
11
11
25
17
25
20
25
17
33
13
Miscellaneous
Miscellaneous
11%
11
17%
17
18%
18
25%
25
20%
20
9%
9
50% 100%
50
100
13%
13
33%
33
13%
13
34.91
.141
13
62.03
.047
COAST
0/4-1/4
MOTOR VOTER
11
41%
34.77
.527
65+
WILLA
PDX
METTE
METRO VALLEY
9
33%
11.75
.228
35-44
REGION
MINOR
PARTY
18
67%
Chi Square
18-34
REPUB
LICAN
27
Total Participants
MALE

DEMO
CRAT
YES
24.60
.597

October 18, 2016
NO
5.34
.803
Q3. Which one issue is leading you to support Libertarian Gary Johnson? (Continued)
Total
Total Participants
WILL VOTE FOR

CLIN
TON
TRUMP

SAND
CAR
ERS
TRUMP
CRUZ
SON
CLIN
TON
KASICH
INTERVIEW DATE
10/410/1010/9
10/14
27
0
0%
0
0%
1
4%
1
4%
1
4%
2
7%
0
0%
2
7%
11
41%
16
59%
Conservative values (What they represent / stand for)
44%
15
7
7
4
4
4
4
100%
100
-
100%
100
-
50%
50
36%
18
9
9
50%
13
13
6
6
6
6
-

44%
33
100%
100
50%
-
50%
50
55%
45
38%
25
11
50
13
11%
11
50%
50
9%
9
13%
13

Miscellaneous
Miscellaneous
Chi Square
0.00
.999
22.75
.958
14
6.06
.734

October 18, 2016
Q3. Which one issue is leading you to support Green Party candidate Jill Stein?
GENDER
Total
Total Participants
AGE
FE
MALE
MALE
18-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
DEMO
CRAT
65+
REPUB
LICAN
REGION
MINOR
PARTY
NAV
WILLA
PDX
METTE
METRO VALLEY
EAST
ERN
VOTING PROPENSITY
CEN
TRAL
SOUTH
ERN
2/4
3/4
4/4
2
7%
13
43%
8
27%
4
13%
5
17%
2
7%
28
93%
50% 100%
46%
63%
25%
60%
54%
50
15
50
25
20
29
15
20
11
20
50
13
50%
17
50%
-
50%
-
50%
50
54%
23
38%
-
50%
-
40% 100%
20
-
43%
14
50
25
13
15
13
20
50
11
25
13
50
25
13
13
25
13
17
100
13
25
5%
5
8%
8
25%
25
4%
4
30
13
43%
17
57%
14
47%
6
20%
2
7%
2
7%
6
20%
19
63%
1
3%
6
20%
4
13%
12
40%
8
27%
4
13%
0
0%

candidate
Better than other
candidates
Liar
Corrupt / Unethical /
Illegal acts / Immoral /
Above the law
Taxes - not paying fair
share
Racist
50%
38%
59%
43%
67%
50%
50%
50%
42%
83%
50%
42%
50%
50%
27
23
29
14
33
50
50
33
11
67
50
17
25
25
50
10
12
14
17
11
17
17
25
12
17
11
25
17
Trust to do what they
say
Economy / Business
expertise
Environmental protection
/ Issues
(More / Better)
Terrorism / Foreign
threats / Military
values (What they
represent / stand for)
47%
13
54%
15
41%
12
57%
14
33%
17
50%
-
50%
17
53% 100%
21
-
17%
-
50%
-
13
23
21
50
17
12
14
11
17
17
3%
3
8%
8
50%
50
Miscellaneous
Miscellaneous
Chi Square
12.52
.405
44.70
.609
49.56
.066
15
53.33
.277
4
13%
COAST
0/4-1/4
MOTOR VOTER
YES
38.65
.351

October 18, 2016
NO
9.91
.624
Q3. Which one issue is leading you to support Green Party candidate Jill Stein? (Continued)
Total
Total Participants
WILL VOTE FOR

CLIN
TON
TRUMP

SAND
CAR
ERS
TRUMP
CRUZ
SON
CLIN
TON
KASICH
INTERVIEW DATE
10/410/1010/9
10/14
30
0
0%
0
0%
1
3%
14
47%
0
0%
0
0%
0
0%
0
0%
13
43%
17
57%

Taxes - not paying fair share
Racist
50%
27
10
7
3
3
100%
100
-
36%
14
7
7
7
-
62%
31
15
8
8
-
41%
24
6
6
6
Environmental protection / Issues
47%
13
13
7
3
3
3
3
57%
14
7
14
7
7
7
-
38%
15
8
8
8
-
53%
12
18
6
6
6
6
3%
3
7%
7
6%
6
Miscellaneous
Miscellaneous
Chi Square
0.00
.999
6.96
.860
16
7.94
.790

October 18, 2016
Q4. Which presidential candidate did you vote for back in the May primary election?
GENDER
Total
FE
MALE
45-54
65+
DEMO
CRAT
REPUB
LICAN
MINOR
PARTY
NAV
EAST
ERN
CEN
TRAL
SOUTH
ERN
2/4
3/4
4/4
53
14%
58
16%
95
26%
108
29%
214
58%
158
42%
0
0%
0
0%
172
46%
88
24%
32
9%
27
7%
35
9%
18
5%
64
17%
78
21%
81
22%
149
40%
8
2%
364
98%
Democratic Candidate
Bernie Sanders
Hillary Clinton
Lincoln Chaffee
Jill Stein
53%
31
21
0
0
44%
25
19
-
59%
36
23
0
0
69%
62
7
-
70%
58
11
-
53%
28
22
2
2
47%
22
25
-
41%
12
29
-
91%
55
36
-
2%
1
1
1
67%
43
23
1
1
48%
24
24
-
25%
16
9
-
30%
7
22
-
40%
26
14
-
56%
33
22
-
59%
52
8
-
50%
32
18
-
56%
33
21
1
-
50%
21
28
1
88%
75
13
-
52%
30
21
0
0
Republican Candidate
Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
Ben Carson
John Kasich
Marco Rubio
Rand Paul
Jeb Bush
Mitt Romney
36%
22
5
3
3
1
1
0
1
43%
25
6
4
5
2
1
1
31%
21
4
2
1
1
0
0
0
19%
5
7
3
2
2
-
30%
21
4
2
4
-
36%
22
3
3
2
2
2
2
-
40%
25
6
3
3
2
44%
30
4
3
3
3
1
1
84%
53
11
7
6
3
1
1
2
24%
16
3
2
2
1
1
-
42%
24
7
1
5
3
1
1
56%
34
3
13
3
3
67%
48
7
4
4
4
-
40%
20
6
6
6
3
28%
22
6
-
25%
16
3
2
3
2
-
40%
27
5
4
3
1
33%
17
6
6
1
1
1
-
40%
26
5
2
4
1
1
1
13%
13
-
36%
23
5
3
3
1
1
0
1
Did not vote / Refused

Didn't vote
11%
2
9
13%
3
11
10%
2
7
12%
3
9
10%
5
5
12%
3
8
16%
1
15
9%
9
14%
6
8
9%
1
8
9%
1
8
19%
6
13
4%
4
20%
9
11
17%
6
11
16%
6
9
9%
4
5
11%
2
9
10%
10
11%
2
9
336.37
.001
17
87.30
.079
COAST
0/4-1/4
MOTOR VOTER
58
16%
114.53
.001
55-64
VOTING PROPENSITY
221
59%
15.25
.361
35-44
REGION
WILLA
PDX
METTE
METRO VALLEY
151
41%
Chi Square
18-34
372
Total Participants
MALE
AGE
61.71
.025
YES
NO
7.63
.908
KGW TV 8, The Oregonian & OregonLive / Likely Voter Survey

October 18, 2016
Q4. Which presidential candidate did you vote for back in the May primary election? (Continued)
Total
Total Participants
WILL VOTE FOR

CLIN
TON
TRUMP

SAND
CAR
ERS
TRUMP
CRUZ
SON
CLIN
TON
KASICH
INTERVIEW DATE
10/410/1010/9
10/14
372
185
50%
131
35%
78
21%
117
31%
83
22%
18
5%
11
3%
10
3%
175
47%
197
53%
Democratic Candidate
Bernie Sanders
Hillary Clinton
Lincoln Chaffee
Jill Stein
53%
31
21
0
0
89%
48
41
-
3%
3
-
100%
100
-
100%
100
-
53%
35
17
1
53%
28
24
1
-
Republican Candidate
Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
Ben Carson
John Kasich
Marco Rubio
Rand Paul
Jeb Bush
Mitt Romney
36%
22
5
3
3
1
1
0
1
3%
1
2
1
-
85%
58
11
8
3
2
2
100%
100
-
100%
100
-
100%
100
-
100%
100
-
39%
24
7
5
2
1
-
33%
21
3
1
3
2
1
1
2
Did not vote / Refused

Didn't vote
11%
2
9
7%
1
6
12%
5
8
8%
2
6
14%
3
11
Chi Square
259.13
.001
1000+
.001
25.15
.033
18

October 18, 2016
Q5. Switching to the Oregon's governor's race, the candidates on the upcoming ballot will include: (Aided)
Which of these gubernatorial candidates will most likely get your vote?
GENDER
Total
45-54
55-64
NAV
WILLA
PDX
METTE
METRO VALLEY
EAST
ERN
VOTING PROPENSITY
CEN
TRAL
SOUTH
ERN
2/4
3/4
4/4
95
16%
105
17%
148
24%
148
24%
254
42%
197
32%
120
20%
37
6%
272
45%
144
24%
50
8%
49
8%
57
9%
36
6%
177
29%
150
25%
107
18%
174
29%
30
5%
578
95%
Kate Brown
Democrat and Working
Families candidate
Kate Brown: Strongly
Democrat and Working
Families candidate
Kate Brown:
Somewhat
48%
34
39%
28
57%
39
42%
27
51%
29
54%
40
53%
37
43%
34
81%
62
10%
6
47%
23
35%
24
62%
44
38%
26
24%
16
43%
29
42%
26
42%
31
46%
26
43%
31
51%
38
54%
41
40%
27
49%
34
14
11
18
15
21
14
16
19
24
11
18
11
14
16
11
20
11
13
13
13
15
Bud Pierce
Republican Bud Pierce:
Strongly
Republican Bud Pierce:
Somewhat
34%
23
40%
27
29%
20
21%
11
32%
21
38%
26
36%
24
42%
31
7%
3
76%
56
23%
13
35%
16
24%
15
44%
32
48%
26
43%
35
37%
30
39%
19
27%
14
43%
29
33%
23
36%
28
23%
10
35%
24
11
12
10
10
11
12
11
11
19
19
12
22
19
13
13
13
11
Cliff Thompson
The Independent Party's
Cliff Thomason:
Strongly
The Independent Party's
Cliff Thomason:
Somewhat
2%
0
2%
1
2%
0
4%
-
3%
2
1%
-
1%
1
1%
-
2%
-
1%
1
2%
1
11%
3
1%
-
3%
1
2%
2
4%
2
3%
-
5%
1
2%
1
1%
-
7%
-
2%
1
James Foster
Libertarian James
Foster: Strongly
Libertarian James
Foster: Somewhat
1%
1
3%
2
0%
-
2%
1
2%
1
2%
1
2%
2
1%
-
5%
4
3%
3
1%
-
1%
1
4%
2
4%
4
2%
2
3%
3
2%
1
3%
1
1%
1
1%
1
2%
1
Aaron Auer
The Constitution Party's
Aaron Auer: Strongly
The Constitution Party's
Aaron Auer:
Somewhat
1%
0
1%
0
2%
1
2%
-
1%
1
2%
-
4%
-
2%
-
3%
3
2%
1
1%
-
3%
-
1%
0
Undecided
Undecided / Don't know /
Refused
13%
13
15%
15
12%
12
29%
29
11%
11
5%
5
9%
9
14%
14
9%
9
13%
13
23%
23
16%
16
12%
12
15%
15
20%
20
6%
6
16%
16
11%
11
20%
20
10%
10
15%
15
9%
9
27%
27
13%
13
362.35
.001
19
108.72
.001
COAST
0/4-1/4
MOTOR VOTER
112
18%
87.03
.001
65+
REGION
MINOR
PARTY
323
53%
28.51
.001
35-44
REPUB
LICAN
285
47%
Chi Square
18-34

DEMO
CRAT
608
Total Participants
MALE
AGE
FE
MALE
59.26
.001
YES
NO
18.82
.043

October 18, 2016
Q5. Switching to the Oregon's governor's race, the candidates on the upcoming ballot will include: (Aided)
Which of these gubernatorial candidates will most likely get your vote? (Continued)
Total
Total Participants
WILL VOTE FOR

CLIN
TON
TRUMP

SAND
CAR
ERS
TRUMP
CRUZ
SON
CLIN
TON
KASICH
INTERVIEW DATE
10/410/1010/9
10/14
608
280
46%
216
36%
78
13%
117
19%
83
14%
18
3%
11
2%
10
2%
270
44%
338
56%
Kate Brown
Democrat and Working Families candidate Kate Brown: Strongly
Democrat and Working Families candidate Kate Brown:
Somewhat
48%
34
14
84%
63
21
9%
5
5
92%
82
10
82%
57
25
7%
4
4
20%
20
-
44%
30
14
51%
37
14
Bud Pierce
Republican Bud Pierce: Strongly
Republican Bud Pierce: Somewhat
34%
23
11
5%
2
3
77%
56
21
1%
1
7%
3
4
81%
61
19
89%
56
33
100%
91
9
50%
50
-
35%
24
11
34%
23
11
Cliff Thompson
The Independent Party's Cliff Thomason: Strongly
The Independent Party's Cliff Thomason: Somewhat
2%
0
1
1%
0
1
1%
1
3%
3
1%
1
2%
2
2%
1
1
James Foster
Libertarian James Foster: Strongly
Libertarian James Foster: Somewhat
1%
1
0
0%
0
1%
1
0
1%
1
1%
1
0
2%
1
1
Aaron Auer
The Constitution Party's Aaron Auer: Strongly
The Constitution Party's Aaron Auer: Somewhat
1%
0
0
1%
0
1
1%
1
1%
1
1%
0
0
13%
13
10%
10
10%
10
6%
6
8%
8
10%
10
11%
11
30%
30
17%
17
10%
10
Undecided
Undecided / Don't know / Refused
Chi Square
315.56
.001
261.95
.001
20
11.95
.289

October 18, 2016
Q6. Our last question is about Ballot Measure 97, previously known as IP 28. If approved by voters, this measure would raise corporate
taxes on businesses with annual sales that exceed 25 million dollars. If you were filling out your ballot today, would you vote yes to
support this new tax, or would you vote no to oppose it? (Is that strongly or somewhat?)
GENDER
Total
65+
VOTING PROPENSITY
CEN
TRAL
SOUTH
ERN
2/4
3/4
4/4
148
24%
148
24%
254
42%
197
32%
120
20%
37
6%
272
45%
144
24%
50
8%
49
8%
57
9%
36
6%
177
29%
150
25%
107
18%
174
29%
30
5%
578
95%
No / Oppose
Voting No / Oppose:
Strongly
Voting No / Oppose:
Somewhat
47%
34
54%
41
40%
28
36%
23
41%
25
39%
33
50%
38
60%
43
24%
13
77%
58
45%
34
49%
43
35%
24
60%
44
54%
44
51%
35
44%
32
67%
53
42%
28
51%
38
40%
32
52%
37
43%
17
47%
35
13
13
12
13
16
12
17
11
18
11
11
17
10
16
12
14
14
13
15
27
12
Yes / Support
Voting Yes / Support:
Strongly
Voting Yes / Support:
Somewhat
46%
28
41%
25
51%
30
57%
29
53%
26
53%
36
45%
28
30%
21
70%
41
17%
11
46%
27
43%
30
59%
35
33%
20
40%
22
37%
18
46%
30
28%
19
51%
34
43%
26
50%
26
42%
24
50%
30
46%
28
19
15
21
28
26
17
17
29
19
14
24
13
18
18
16
18
17
23
18
20
19
7%
7
5%
5
9%
9
7%
7
6%
6
8%
8
5%
5
9%
9
7%
7
6%
6
9%
9
8%
8
6%
6
6%
6
6%
6
12%
12
11%
11
6%
6
7%
7
6%
6
10%
10
6%
6
7%
7
7%
7
Total
WILL VOTE FOR

CLIN
TON
TRUMP
CLIN
TON
144.15
.001
43.74
.002

SAND
CAR
ERS
TRUMP
CRUZ
SON
KASICH
280
46%
216
36%
78
13%
117
19%
83
14%
18
3%
11
2%
10
2%
270
44%
338
56%
No / Oppose
Voting No / Oppose: Strongly
Voting No / Oppose: Somewhat
47%
34
13
22%
13
9
78%
62
16
22%
8
14
20%
10
9
80%
59
20
78%
67
11
82%
64
18
70%
40
30
47%
30
16
46%
36
10
Yes / Support
Voting Yes / Support: Strongly
Voting Yes / Support: Somewhat
46%
28
19
71%
42
29
17%
10
6
64%
38
26
77%
42
35
12%
11
1
17%
11
6
18%
9
9
20%
10
10
44%
25
19
48%
30
18
7%
7
7%
7
5%
5
14%
14
3%
3
8%
8
6%
6
10%
10
9%
9
6%
6
Chi Square
167.13
.001
136.15
.001
0/4-1/4
12.35
.418
YES
NO
7.53
.111
INTERVIEW DATE
10/410/1010/9
10/14
608
Undecided
Undecided
COAST
MOTOR VOTER
105
17%
40.01
.001
NAV
EAST
ERN
95
16%
Total Participants
55-64
WILLA
PDX
METTE
METRO VALLEY
112
18%
14.45
.006
45-54
REGION
MINOR
PARTY
323
53%
Chi Square
35-44
REPUB
LICAN
285
47%
Undecided
Undecided
18-34

DEMO
CRAT
608
Total Participants
MALE
AGE
FE
MALE
9.74
.045
21

October 18, 2016

KGW-Oregonian Poll 2016

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OREGON STATEWIDE

LIKELY VOTER SURVEY

INTRODUCTION & METHODOLOGY

KGW TV 8, The Oregonian & OregonLive.com / Likely Voter Survey

KGW TV 8, The Oregonian & OregonLive.com / Likely Voter Survey

EXECUTIVE OVERVIEW (CONTINUED)

KGW TV 8, The Oregonian & OregonLive.com / Likely Voter Survey

Don't know / Refused

WILL VOTE FOR

PRIMARY ELECTION VOTE

Don't know / Refused

REGISTERED POLITICAL PARTY

KGW TV 8, The Oregonian & OregonLive.com / Likely Voter Survey

Democrat Hillary Clinton

Republican Donald Trump

Green Party Jill Stein

Libertarian Gary Johnson

Libertarian Gary Johnson

Republican Donald Trump

REGISTERED POLITICAL PARTY

KGW TV 8, The Oregonian & OregonLive.com / Likely Voter Survey

WILL VOTE FOR

PRIMARY ELECTION VOTE

Democrat Hillary Clinton

Republican Donald Trump

Libertarian Gary Johnson

Green Party Jill Stein

KGW TV 8, The Oregonian & OregonLive.com / Likely Voter Survey

REGISTERED POLITICAL PARTY

KGW TV 8, The Oregonian & OregonLive.com / Likely Voter Survey

REGISTERED POLITICAL PARTY

KGW TV 8, The Oregonian & OregonLive.com / Likely Voter Survey

WILL VOTE FOR

PRIMARY ELECTION VOTE

Voting against other candidate

KGW TV 8, The Oregonian & OregonLive.com / Likely Voter Survey

REGISTERED POLITICAL PARTY

KGW TV 8, The Oregonian & OregonLive.com / Likely Voter Survey

REGISTERED POLITICAL PARTY

KGW TV 8, The Oregonian & OregonLive.com / Likely Voter Survey

WILL VOTE FOR

PRIMARY ELECTION VOTE

Voting against other candidate

KGW TV 8, The Oregonian & OregonLive.com / Likely Voter Survey

Voting against other

REGISTERED POLITICAL PARTY

KGW TV 8, The Oregonian & OregonLive.com / Likely Voter Survey

WILL VOTE FOR

PRIMARY ELECTION VOTE

Voting against other candidate

Not trustworthy / Not truthful / Hypocritical / Liar

KGW TV 8, The Oregonian & OregonLive.com / Likely Voter Survey

REGISTERED POLITICAL PARTY

Voting against other

KGW TV 8, The Oregonian & OregonLive.com / Likely Voter Survey

WILL VOTE FOR

PRIMARY ELECTION VOTE

Voting against other candidate

KGW TV 8, The Oregonian & OregonLive.com / Likely Voter Survey

Did not vote / Refused

REGISTERED POLITICAL PARTY

KGW TV 8, The Oregonian & OregonLive / Likely Voter Survey

WILL VOTE FOR

PRIMARY ELECTION VOTE