contact@claritycampaigns.

com
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To: House Majority PAC

From: John Hagner, Clarity Campaign Labs
Date: October 19, 2016
Subject: Bonoff Makes Huge Gains in MN-03 as Trump Drags Paulsen Down

A survey conducted October 11th - 13th, 2016 by Clarity Campaign Labs on behalf of House Majority PAC
shows that Democratic challenger Terri Bonoff is gaining support in her race against incumbent
Republican Erik Paulsen in Minnesotas Third Congressional District. The survey includes 500 responses,
conducted by live operators to landlines and cellphones, with a margin of error of +/- 4.34% at a 95%
confidence interval.

Congressional Race with Leaners

50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%

45%

MN-03 Presidential Support

47%

50%

42%

45%
40%
35%
30%

28%

25%
13%

20%

14%

15%

11%

10%
5%

Erik Paulsen [R] Terri Bonoff [D]

Unsure

0%

Donald Trump Hillary Clinton

Other

Unsure

Terri Bonoff trails Erik Paulsen by 3% within the margin of error - in the race for Congress. Bonoff gets
the support of 39% of the voters in the district, compared to 41% for Paulsen. When undecided voters are
asked which candidate they lean toward supporting, Bonoff adds 3% to Paulsens 4%, bringing the margin
to 45% to 42%.

The top-of-ticket Democratic performance in the district suggests that Bonoff has plenty of room left to
expand; Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton outperforms Donald Trump by 19 points. She is beating him
47% to 28% in the district, with 14% supporting another candidate.

Bonoffs lead among Democrats is improving rapidly and is now up to 80%. She also takes 6% of
Republicans. Paulsen does have a lead with Independents, but 23% are undecided. Due to the collapse of
the Republican brand in well-educated suburbs, thanks to their nominee, the districts party ID now trends
Democratic, with 38% identifying as Republicans and 46% as Democrats. Bonoffs ability to further solidify
Democratic votes and reach deeper into Paulsens support among Independents will be critical to her
success on Election Day.

October 19, 2016

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MN-03 Congressional Support by Party

100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

90%

80%
53%

24%
6%

4%

12%

Republican

8%
Democrat

Erik Paulsen [R]

23%

Terri Bonoff [D]

Independent
Unsure

At her current trajectory, Terri Bonoff stands a very good chance at unseating incumbent Erik Paulsen.
Donald Trump is poised to lose this seat by historic margins, and as the district learns more about the
alternative Terri Bonoff offers, we expect her support to continue to grow.

The poll was conducted by Clarity Campaign Labs, using a sample pulled from the TargetSmart voter file.
Responses were weighted using turnout scores to reflect the likely voting electorate in Minnesotas 3rd
Congressional District.

October 19, 2016

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