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To: House Majority PAC

From: John Hagner, Clarity Campaign Labs
Date: October 19, 2016
Subject: Rick Nolan in the lead in MN-08

A survey conducted October 10th and 11th, 2016 by Clarity Campaign Labs on behalf of House Majority
PAC shows that voters in Minnesotas 8th Congressional district are likely to re-elect Congressman Rick
Nolan in November. The survey includes 514 responses, conducted by live operators to landlines and
cellphones, with a margin of error of +/- 4.33% at a 95% confidence interval.

Rick Nolan leads Stewart Mills by 8% in the race for Congress. Nolan gets the support of 47% of the voters
in the district, compared to 39% for Mills. When undecided voters are asked which candidate they lean
toward supporting, both Nolan and Mills add 2%, bringing the margin to 49% to 41%.

MN-08 Presidential Support

Congressional Race with Leaners

60%
50%
40%

60%

49%

50%

41%

40%

38%

30%

30%
20%

10%

10%
0%

39%

Stewart Mills Rick Nolan [D]

[R]

Unsure

20%

12%

11%

Other

Unsure

10%
0%

Donald
Trump

Hillary
Clinton

Congressman Nolans lead is in spite of the national environment being more difficult in MN-08 than in
other parts of the country. Republican nominee Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton by a point in the
district 38% Clinton, 39% Trump, with 12% going to other candidates and 11% undecided.

Nolan and Mills are both well-known to the voters in the district: 74% of the districts voters have an
opinion on them. Nolans favorable rating is 37% and his unfavorable is 36%, while Stewart Mills is very
unpopular with the voters of the district: 31% have a favorable opinion, while fully 43% of the district gives
him an unfavorable rating. 19% of the voters are neutral on both candidates, and only 7% havent heard
of them.

Nolan has a commanding lead with Democrats, winning 91% - 4%, while also winning 11% of voters who
identify as Republicans. He leads among Independents 42% - 40%. The districts party ID is roughly equal,
with 37% identifying as Republicans and 38% as Democrats, so Nolans ability to win Republican votes is
crucial to his lead.

October 19, 2016

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MN-08 Congressional Support by Party

100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

Stewart Mills [R]

91%

85%

Rick Nolan [D]

Unsure

40%

11%

Republican

42%
18%

4%

4%

4%
Democrat

Independent

Congressional Support by Gender
Nolan benefits from a huge gender gap,
55%
winning 55% of women to 36% for Mills. 60%
49%
Mills has a much smaller lead among men, 50%
44%
49%-44%.
36%
40%

In summary, Congressman Nolan has 30%
successfully defined himself and his record
with the voters in his district, and is poised 20%
8%
7%
to win re-election comfortably, even 10%
though the national environment is trickier
0%
in this district than in some other parts of
Female
Male
Minnesota and the country. Voters in the
district know who Stewart Mills is, and they
Stewart Mills [R]
Rick Nolan [D]
Unsure
dont like what they see.

The poll was conducted by Clarity Campaign Labs, using a sample pulled from the TargetSmart voter file.
Responses were weighted using turnout scores to reflect the likely voting electorate in Minnesotas 8th
Congressional District.

October 19, 2016

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