October 13, 2016

TO:
FROM:
RE:

Interested Parties
Jeff Liszt
Summary of Polling Results in VA CD-05

Jane Dittmar has pulled the VA-05 race to within 6 points (41% Dittmar / 47% Garrett),
after trailing by 10 points in July. Dittmar has closed the gap with a month-long head start
on television fueled by raising over one million dollars (more than double Garretts
$470,000). Dittmar is running ahead of the top of the ticket with independents, and will
be further aided by a worsening political environment for Republicans as Donald Trump
has announced he is, pulling out of Virginia.
Dittmar leads with independents. She is ahead 41% to 38% with independents a big
turnaround from July when Tom Garrett held a commanding 43% to 17% lead. Dittmar
leads with independents (+3) despite the fact that Hillary Clinton trails among them (-1)
Dittmars paid communication advantage is having an impact. Dittmar is within 6
points in the Roanoke media market after trailing by 16 points in July. And in the
Charlottesville market, she has grown her advantage from +6 to +12.
The political environment is significantly worse for Republicans than it was in
July. Donald Trump leads by just 4 points here (46% Trump / 42% Clinton), after leading
by 9 points in July. Trumps net popularity has gone from 18 points better than Hillary
Clinton in July to just 3 points better now.

Anzalone Liszt Grove Research conducted N=400 live telephone interviews with likely 2016 voters in Virginia CD05. Interviews were conducted between October 10-12, 2016. Respondents were selected at random, with
interviews apportioned demographically based on past voter turnout. Expected margin of sampling error for is
4.9% with a 95% confidence level, and higher for subgroups.