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Interested Parties
Global Strategy Group
October 18, 2016
NEW POLL Rosen Well-Positioned to Win in Nevadas Third District

In Nevadas Third Congressional District, Democrat Jacky Rosen has taken a solid lead over her Republican
opponent, Danny Tarkanian, who is now losing to Rosen by 7 points. Support for Rosen continues to increase
as voters become more familiar with her, and she still has plenty of room to grow as she further increases her
name recognition. The same cannot be said for Tarkanian who continues to lose support the more voters learn
about him just as he did in all of his failed previous campaigns. As a result of this clear distinction, Rosen is
not only well-positioned to hold her current lead, but to expand it further.

KEY SURVEY FINDINGS:

Voters are hearing a lot about Danny Tarkanian, and they do not like what they hear. A solid majority of
voters have seen or heard something about Tarkanian in the past few weeks (67%) and two-thirds of these
voters are hearing mostly negative things.
-

Tarkanian was already a disliked candidate after his previous attempts to run for office (35%
favorable/39% unfavorable in July), but as voters have learned more, he has become increasingly
unpopular (30% favorable/48% unfavorable).

Rosen is less well-known, but voters are becoming more familiar with and positive about her. Rosen has
made some solid gains in name recognition since July (41% familiar, up from 24% in July).
-

Rosen also holds a solid +9 positive rating (25% favorable/16% unfavorable). Every indication shows
that as the voters of Nevadas 3rd District learn more about her, Rosen only stands to gain further
support.

Rosen
Tarkanian
Net

July

October

Change

Support

Support

Support

39%
44%
-5

44%
37%
+7

+5
-7
+12

Rosen has moved solidly ahead of Tarkanian.

- Rosen now holds a solid 7-point lead over her Republican opponent (44% Rosen vs. 37% Tarkanian), a
reversal from Rosens 5-point deficit in July (39% Rosen vs. 44% Tarkanian).
- Rosen leads despite the districts slight preference for a Republican candidate on the generic ballot
(43% Democratic candidate/45% Republican candidate).

ABOUT THIS POLL

Global Strategy Group conducted a live telephone survey of 403 likely November 2016 voters in Nevadas Third Congressional
District, from October 13th to 16th, 2016. The results of this survey have a margin of error of +/-4.9% on the full sample. Care
has been taken to ensure the geographic and demographic divisions of the expected electorate are properly represented based
on historical turnout.