Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Monetary Economics
Chapter 4
The Behavior of Interest Rate
Main Textbook:
Mishkin, Frederic S. (2009). The Economics of Money, Banking & Financial Market,
9th Edition, New York : Pearson Addison Wesley
http://www.cwu.edu/~saunders/ec330/ec330ppt.html
http://www.financeformulas.net/Yield_to_Maturity.html
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
Interest rates and rates of returns
Real and nominal interest rates
Theories on the determination of interest
rates
Classical model
Keynesian model
Coupon Bond
o To know the concept, we can use coupon bond as an example.
o Coupon bond pays the owner of the bond a fixed interest
payment (coupon payment) every year until the maturity date,
when a specified final (face value / par value) is repaid.
o For example:
o A coupon with $1000 face value, might pay you a coupon
payment of $100 per year for 10 years and at maturity date
repay you the face value amount of $1000.
o It issues by corporation or government agency.
Using the same strategy used for the fixed-payment loan:
P = price of coupon bond
C = yearly coupon payment
F = face value of the bond
n = years to maturity date
C
C
C
C
F
P=
. . . +
2
3
n
1+i
(1+i )
(1+i )
(1+i )
(1+i ) n
4
Table 1
YTM on a 10%-Coupon-Rate Bond Maturing in Ten Years (Face Value = $1,000)
When the coupon bond is priced at its face value, the YTM
equals the coupon rate
(P=F, YTM=C)
The YTM is greater than the coupon rate when the bond price
is below its face value
(P<F,YTM>C)
For example:
Suppose that $100 is lent and, at the end of one year, $110 must
be pay back. The interest paid is $10 and the interest rate is 10%
($10/$100=0.10)
For example:
The Fisher equation states that the nominal interest rate (i)
equals the real interest rate + the expected rat of inflation.
Real
= Nominal
Expected Inflation
Nominal
= Real
Expected Inflation
If the nominal interest rate is 10% and the inflation rate is 3%, the
real interest rate is really 7%.
When the real interest rate is low, there are greater incentives to
borrow and fewer incentives to lend.
2.
3.
4.
11
Summary Table 1
Response of the Quantity of an Asset Demanded to Changes
in Wealth, Expected Returns, Risk, and Liquidity
= Lenders
Supply of bonds
= Borrowers
= Borrowers
= Lenders
Supplier of bonds
Bonds
Funds
Buyer (Demander)
Seller (Supplier)
Price
Bond price
Interest rate
13
14
Occurs when the amount that people are willing to buy (demand/ Bd)
equals the amount that people are willing to sell (supply/ Bs) at a given
price.
When Bd < Bs : excess supply (I>A); people want to sell more bonds
than others want to buy, the price of bond will fall and interest rate will
rise.
Price of the bonds is set too high ($950), quantity of bonds supplied
(point I) > quantity of bonds demanded (point A).
When Bd > Bs : excess demand ( E>F); people want to buy more bonds
than others are willing to sell, the price of bond will rise and interest rate
will fall.
Price of the bonds is set too low ($750), ), quantity of bonds supplied
(point F) < quantity of bonds demanded (point E).
16
2.Expected
Returns:
17
18
Figure 2
Shift in the Demand Curve for Bonds
19
Summary Table 2
Factors That Shift the Demand Curve for Bonds
20
2.
Expected inflation:
3.
Business taxation
22
Figure 3
Shift in the Supply Curve for Bonds
23
Summary Table 3
Factors That Shift the Supply of Bonds
24
Analysis
1. Shift in demand for bonds / supply of the LF
(Supply is constant)
2. Shift in supply bonds / demand for LF
(Demand is constant)
3. Shift in both demand and supply of bonds/LF
25
The rise in expected inflation also shifts the supply curve. At any
given bond price and interest rate, the real cost of borrowing has
declined, causing the quantity of bonds supplied to increase, and
the supply curve shifts to the right (from Bs1 to Bs2).
Expansion in the economy will also affect the demand for bonds.
The equilibrium moves from point 1 to point 2, where the equilibrium price
of bond has fallen (from P1 to P2) because the bond price is negatively
related to the interest rate. This means the interest rate has risen.
The price of bond will increase and the interest rate will fall.
31
According to Keynes:
Money demand
Money supply
Ms
Md
Md
M
M
33
34
36
37
38
Changes in income
When the price level rises, the value of money in terms of what it can
purchase is lower. People will want to hold a greater nominal quantity of
money.
The demand curve for money shifts to the right (from Md1 to Md2).
When the price level increases, with the supply of money and other
economic variables held constant, interest rates will rise.
39
Figure 9
Response to a Change in Income or the Price Level
40
41
Figure 10
Response to a Change in the Money Supply
42