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Global Strategy Group
October 20th, 2016
NEW POLL RESULTS OHalleran Leads Babeu by Ten in Arizonas First District

Tom OHalleran holds a double-digit lead over Paul Babeu in Arizonas First Congressional District,
widening the 7-point advantage he held in September. Hillary Clinton has expanded her lead at the
presidential level, which is creating a positive environment for Democrats further down the ballot. More
important, OHalleran is increasing his popularity as he is becoming more familiar to voters, while negative
messaging against Babeu is clearly breaking through. All of this puts OHalleran in a very good position to
succeed Ann Kirkpatrick and retain Democratic control of Arizonas First District.
Key findings from Global Strategy Groups recent poll of 400 likely November 2016 voters are as follows:

KEY SURVEY FINDINGS:

Tom OHalleran leads Paul Babeu by double digits (46% OHalleran/36% Babeu). This is up by three
points since September (when OHalleran led 45% to 38%).

OHalleran is growing in popularity as voters get to know him better: OHalleran is now known by 44
percent of voters, up 18 points since August. And since August, OHalleran has increased his net
favorability by 10 points (+18 today from +8 in August).

Babeu, on the other hand, remains underwater in his favorability (-1). Perhaps more important,
voters are hearing overwhelmingly negative news about the Republican candidate (37% hearing
mostly negative news/10% mostly positive/11% mixed).

The national political dynamics continue to help OHalleran and hurt Babeu: Hillary Clinton holds a
lead in the presidential race (47% to 42%) and Donald Trump is very unpopular in this district (37%
favorable/58% unfavorable, with 51% very unfavorable). Trumps problems over the past few weeks
have only served as an additional anchor for Republicans, especially among women voters.

Democrats are much more enthusiastic about voting than Republicans. While 75% of Democrats are
enthusiastic about voting, just 66% of Republicans say the same.

The bottom line is this: Tom OHalleran holds a commanding 10-point lead over Paul Babeu and appears
poised to hold this Congressional seat for the Democrats with only three weeks before Election Day. As
voters continue to become familiar with OHalleran and hear more about Babeus scandals in the final
weeks of the election, there is every reason to believe that his lead is more likely to expand, rather than
contract.
ABOUT THIS POLL
Global Strategy Group conducted a district-wide survey of 400 likely November 2016 voters in Arizonas 1 st District between
October 16 and 18, 2016. The results of this survey have a margin of error of +/-4.9%. Care has been taken to ensure the
geographic and demographic divisions of the expected electorate are properly represented based on hist orical turnout.

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