Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Scientific Conclusions
Contrarian v
Scientific Conclusions
Claim s
JWD: The sun’s output has barely changed since 1970, shows no increasing trend, and so is irrelevant to recent global
warming.
1 "It's the sun"
JC: In the last 35 years of global warming, the sun has shown a slight cooling trend. Sun and climate have been going in
opposite directions.
JWD: The climate reacts to whatever is forcing it to change at the time, which nowadays is dominated by humans.
"Climate's
JC: Natural climate change in the past proves that climate is sensitive to an energy imbalance. If the planet accumulates
2 changed
heat, global temperatures will go up. Currently, CO2 is imposing an energy imbalance due to the enhanced greenhouse
before"
effect. Past climate change actually provides evidence for our climate's sensitivity to CO2.
JWD: Over 95% of professional climatologists agree that global warming exists and that human activity is a significant
contributing factor.
"There is no
3 JC: That humans are causing global warming is the position of the Academies of Science from 19 countries plus many
consensus"
scientific organizations that study climate science. More specifically, 97% of climate scientists actively publishing climate
papers endorse the consensus position.
JWD: Last year 2009 was the second hottest year globally since 1900.
JC: Empirical measurements of the Earth's heat content show the planet is still accumulating heat and global warming is
4 "It's cooling"
still happening. Surface temperatures can show short-term cooling when heat is exchanged between the atmosphere and
the ocean, which has a much greater heat capacity than the air.
JWD: Models are based on physics, and successfully reproduce temperatures since 1900 globally, by continent, in the air,
"Models are and in the ocean.
5
unreliable" JC: While there are uncertainties with climate models, they successfully reproduce the past and have made predictions
that have been subsequently confirmed by observations.
JWD: Temperatures reliably measured in rural and urban areas, in the ocean, and by satellite agree that the earth is
"Temp record is warming.
6
unreliable" JC: Numerous studies into the effect of urban heat island effect and microsite influences find they have negligible effect
on long-term trends, particularly when averaged over large regions.
JWD: The NASA data say 2005 was the hottest year globally, and 2009 the second hottest.
"It hasn't
JC: The planet has continued to accumulate heat since 1998 - global warming is still happening. Nevertheless, surface
7 warmed since
temperatures show much internal variability due to heat exchange between the ocean and atmosphere. 1998 was an
1998"
unusually hot year due to a strong El Nino.
JWD: Hypothetical scenarios of increased aerosols conjectured by a few scientists did not occur, and instead global
"Ice age
warming happened.
8 predicted in the
JC: 1970s ice age predictions were predominantly media based. The majority of peer reviewed research at the time
70s"
predicted warming due to increasing CO2.
JWD: We should be worried about global warming impacts in the next 100 years, not an ice age that won’t occur for over
"We're heading 10,000 years.
9
into an ice age" JC: The warming effect from more CO2 greatly outstrips the influence from changes in the Earth's orbit or solar activity,
even if solar levels were to drop to Maunder Minimum levels.
JWD: As a whole, Antarctica is losing ice, and the temperature of Antarctica on the whole is rising.
"Antarctica is
10 JC: While the interior of East Antarctica is gaining land ice, overall Antarctica is losing land ice at an accelerating rate.
gaining ice"
Antarctic sea ice is growing despite a strongly warming Southern Ocean.
JWD: Recent CO2 increase has caused recent global temperature increase without any time lag.
"CO2 lags JC: When the Earth comes out of an ice age, the warming is not initiated by CO2 but by changes in the Earth's orbit. The
11
temperature" warming causes the oceans to give up CO2. The CO2 amplifies the warming and mixes through the atmosphere,
spreading warming throughout the planet. So CO2 causes warming AND rising temperature causes CO2 rise.
JWD: Global warming will cause increasingly damaging impacts on food, water, national security, and the environment.
12 "It's not bad"
JC: The negative impacts of global warming on agriculture, health, economy and environment far outweigh any positives.
JWD: Al Gore’s book is quite accurate, and far more accurate than contrarian books.
"Al Gore got it
13 JC: While there are minor errors in An Inconvenient Truth, the main truths presented - evidence to show mankind is
wrong"
causing global warming and its various impacts is consistent with peer reviewed science.
JWD: Cosmic rays show no trend over the last 30 years, and so are not consistent with the observed trend of global
"It's cosmic warming.
14
rays" JC: While the link between cosmic rays and cloud cover is yet to be confirmed, more importantly, there has been no
correlation between cosmic rays and global temperatures over the last 30 years of global warming.
15 "It's freaking JWD: A cold winter day in Chicago has nothing to do with the trend of increasing yearly-averaged global temperatures.
cold!" JC: Since the mid 1970s, global temperatures have been warming at around 0.2 degrees Celsius per decade. However,
weather imposes its own dramatic ups and downs over the long term trend. We expect to see record cold temperatures
even during global warming. Nevertheless over the last decade, daily record high temperatures occurred twice as often
as record lows. This tendency towards hotter days is expected to increase as global warming continues into the 21st
Century.
"Hurricanes JWD: There is increasing evidence that hurricanes are getting stronger due to global warming.
16 aren't linked to JC: It is unclear whether global warming is increasing hurricane frequency but there is increasing evidence that warming
global warming" increases hurricane intensity.
JWD: 1934 was not the hottest year globally, only the US.
"1934 - hottest
17 JC: 1934 is the hottest year on record in the USA which only comprises 2% of the globe. According to NASA temperature
year on record"
records, the hottest year on record globally is 2005.
JWD: Mars is not warming globally.
"Mars is
18 JC: Martian climate is primarily driven by dust and albedo and there is little empirical evidence that Mars is showing long
warming"
term warming.
JWD: All recent professional analyses agree that the high global temperatures since 1970 are unprecedented in the last
1,000 years.
"Hockey stick is
19 JC: Since the hockey stick paper in 1998, there have been a number of proxy studies analysing a variety of different
broken"
sources including corals, stalagmites, tree rings, boreholes and ice cores. They all confirm the original hockey stick
conclusion: the 20th century is the warmest in the last 1000 years and that warming was most dramatic after 1920.
JWD: Urban and rural area measurements agree for temperature changes, and the “urban effect” is small.
"It's Urban Heat
20 JC: While urban areas are undoubtedly warmer than surrounding rural areas, this has had little to no impact on warming
Island effect"
trends.
JWD: Ancient natural cycles are irrelevant for attributing recent global warming to humans.
"It's just a JC: The 1500 year cycles, known as Dansgaard-Oeschger events, are localized to the northern hemisphere and
21
natural cycle" accompanied with cooling in the southern hemisphere. In contrast, current global warming is occuring in both
hemispheres and particularly throughout the world's oceans, indicating a significant energy imbalance.
"Arctic icemelt JWD: Thick arctic sea ice is undergoing a rapid retreat.
22 is a natural JC: Arctic sea ice has been retreating over the past 30 years. The rate of retreat is accelerating and in fact is exceeding
cycle" most models' forecasts.
JWD: The US Navy now uses risk scenarios of a large sea level rise of around 1 meter by 2100.
"Sea level rise is
23 JC: Sea levels are measured by a variety of methods that show close agreement - sediment cores, tidal gauges, satellite
exaggerated"
measurements. What they find is sea level rise has been steadily accelerating over the past century.
"Water vapor is
JWD: The increase of CO2 winds up increasing atmospheric water vapor, which makes global warming much worse.
the most
JC: Water vapour is the most dominant greenhouse gas. Water vapour is also the dominant positive feedback in our
24 powerful
climate system and amplifies any warming caused by changes in atmospheric CO2. This positive feedback is why climate
greenhouse
is so sensitive to CO2 warming.
gas"
JWD: Mars and Jupiter are not warming, and anyway the sun has recently been cooling slightly.
"Other planets JC: There are three fundamental flaws in the 'other planets are warming' argument. Not all planets in the solar system
25
are warming" are warming. The sun has shown no long term trend since 1950 and in fact has shown a slight cooling trend in recent
decades. There are explanations for why other planets are warming.
JWD: Other parts of the earth got colder when Greenland got warmer.
"Greenland was
26 JC: The Greenland ice sheet has existed for at least 400,000 years. There may have been regions of Greenland that were
green"
'greener' than today but this was not a global phenomenon.
JWD: Human-caused CO2 emissions are above the natural balance and are causing global warming.
"Human CO2 is JC: The CO2 that nature emits (from the ocean and vegetation) is balanced by natural absorptions (again by the ocean
27 a tiny % of CO2 and vegetation). Therefore human emissions upset the natural balance, rising CO2 to levels not seen in at least 800,000
emissions" years. In fact, human emit 26 gigatonnes of CO2 per year while CO2 in the atmosphere is rising by only 15 gigatonnes
per year - much of human CO2 emissions is being absorbed by natural sinks.
JWD: The most recent ocean measurements show consistent warming.
JC: Early estimates of ocean heat from the Argo showed a cooling bias due to pressure sensor issues. Recent estimates of
"Oceans are
28 ocean heat that take this bias into account show continued warming of the upper ocean. This is confirmed by
cooling"
independent estimates of ocean heat as well as more comprehensive measurements of ocean heat down to 2000 metres
deep.
JWD: Climate sensitivity is high, and the doubtful hypothesis of low sensitivity relies on flimsy negative feedback ideas.
"Climate
JC: Climate sensitivity can be calculated empirically by comparing past temperature change to natural forcings at the
29 sensitivity is
time. Various periods of Earth's past have been examined in this manner and find broad agreement of a climate
low"
sensitivity of around 3°C.
"Climategate JWD: Several independent investigations have cleared scientists of any wrongdoing in the media-hyped email incident.
CRU emails JC: While some of the private correspondance is not commendable, an informed examination of their "suggestive" emails
30
suggest reveal technical discussions using techniques well known in the peer reviewed literature. Focusing on a few suggestive
conspiracy" emails merely serves to distract from the wealth of empirical evidence for man-made global warming.
JWD: The sun was warming up then, but the sun hasn’t been warming since 1970.
"We're coming
JC: The main driver of the warming from the Little Ice Age to 1940 was the warming sun with a small contribution from
31 out of the Little
volcanic activity. However, solar activity leveled off after 1940 and the net influence from sun and volcano since 1940
Ice Age"
has been slight cooling. Greenhouse gases have been the main contributor of warming since 1970.
JWD: Mid-century cooling is understood, involved aerosols, and is irrelevant for recent global warming.
"It cooled mid- JC: There are a number of forcings which affect climate (eg - stratospheric aerosols, solar variations). When all forcings
32
century" are combined, they show good correlation to global temperature throughout the 20th century including the mid-century
cooling period. However, for the last 35 years, the dominant forcing has been CO2.
JWD: The CO2 effect is strong and is consistent with recent global warming.
JC: An enhanced greenhouse effect from CO2 has been confirmed by multiple lines of empirical evidence. Satellite
"CO2 effect is
33 measurements of infrared spectra over the past 40 years observe less energy escaping to space at the wavelengths
weak"
associated with CO2. Surface measurements find more downward infrared radiation warming the planet's surface. This
provides a direct, empirical causal link between CO2 and global warming.
JWD: Early 20th century warming is understood, is due to several causes, and is irrelevant for recent global warming due
"It warmed
to humans.
before 1940
34 JC: Early 20th century warming was in large part due to rising solar activity and relatively quiet volcanic activity.
when CO2 was
However, both factors have played little to no part in the warming since 1975. Solar activity has been steady since the
low"
50's. Volcanoes have been relatively frequent and if anything, have exerted a cooling effect.
JWD: Most glaciers are in fast retreat and pose a huge future problem for millions of people who rely on glaciers for
"Glaciers are water.
35
growing" JC: While there are isolated cases of growing glaciers, the overwhelming trend in glaciers worldwide is retreat. In fact, the
global melt rate has been accelerating since the mid-1970s.
JWD: There are multiple lines of direct observations that global warming is occurring, and model attribution shows that
humans are causing it.
"There's no
JC: Direct observations find that CO2 is rising sharply due to human activity. Satellite and surface measurements find less
36 empirical
energy is escaping to space at CO2 absorption wavelengths. Ocean and surface temperature measurements find the
evidence"
planet continues to accumulate heat. This gives a line of empirical evidence that human CO2 emissions are causing
global warming.
"Satellites show JWD: The most recent satellite data show that the earth as a whole is warming.
no warming in JC: Satellite measurements match model results apart from in the tropics. There is uncertainty with the tropical data due
37
the to how various teams correct for satellite drift. The U.S. Climate Change Science Program concludes the discrepancy is
troposphere" most likely due to data errors.
"Mt. JWD: Most glaciers are in rapid retreat worldwide, notwithstanding a few complicated cases.
Kilimanjaro's ice JC: Mount Kilimanjaro's shrinking glacier is complicated and not due to just global warming. However, this does not mean
38
loss is due to the Earth is not warming. There is ample evidence that Earth's average temperature has increased in the past 100 years
land use" and the decline of mid- and high-latitude glaciers is a major piece of evidence.
JWD: Polar bears are in danger of extinction due to starvation caused by disappearing sea ice and seals.
"Polar bear
JC: While there is some uncertainty on current polar bear population trends, one thing is certain. No sea ice means no
39 numbers are
seals which means no polar bears. With Arctic sea ice retreating at an accelerating rate, the polar bear is at grave risk of
increasing"
extinction
JWD: The IPCC summarizes the recent research by the leading scientific experts, in three volumes of 1000 pages each.
"IPCC does not
JC: The IPCC lead authors are experts in their field, instructed to fairly represent the full range of the up-to-date, peer-
represent a
40 reviewed literature. Consequently, the IPCC reports tend to be cautious in their conclusions. Comparisons to the most
scientific
recent data consistently finds that climate change is occurring more rapidly and intensely than indicated by IPCC
consensus"
predictions.
"Extreme
JWD: Extreme weather events are being made worse by global warming.
weather isn't
41 JC: There is growing empirical evidence that warming temperatures cause more intense hurricanes, heavier rainfalls and
caused by
flooding, increased conditions for wildfires and dangerous heat waves.
global warming"
"There's no
JWD: There is long-term correlation between CO2 and global temperature; other effects enter in short term.
correlation
JC: Even during a period of long term warming, there are short periods of cooling due to climate variability. Short term
42 between CO2
cooling over the last few years is largely due to a strong La Nina phase in the Pacific Ocean and a prolonged solar
and
minimum.
temperature"
JWD: Excess CO2 is a pollutant, if unchecked, will lead to high temperatures that will stress and even kill crops.
JC: While there are direct ways in which CO2 is a pollutant (acidification of the ocean), its primary impact is its
"CO2 is not a
43 greenhouse warming effect.
pollutant"