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7TSAS

anjdiac nccwotk for ccscvoh err

axonsmn, .ewiy and society

Pattern Analysis of Events of Terrorism and Violent Extremism in

the Canadian Incident Database for Use in the 2016 Public Report
on the Terrorist Threat to Canada
Final Report
(March 31, 2016)
Contract No. 7211089
Client Reference No. 20165341

Proj ect by:

Canadian Network for Research on Terr9rism, Security and Society (TSAS)

Principal Invetigator:
Dr. Daniel Hiebert

TSAS Administrative Office:

Dept. of Geography
University of British Columbia,
1984 West Mall, Rm. 127
Vancouver, BC Canada V6T 1Z2
Email: daniel.hiebert@ubc.ca
Phone: 604-822-4500
Fax: 604-822-6150

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Table of Contents
Executive

unwary:

Introduction

Creating the CIDB

6
g

Recent Developments, 2015

Trends in Terrorism, 2001-2015

10

A Historical Evaluation of Terrorism in Canada, 1960-2015

17

Canada Compared to other Western Nations, 200 1-2014

22

Violent Extremism in Canada, 2001-2015

25

Conclusion

27

References

28

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Executive Summary
When Martin Couture-Rouleau rammed his car into two armed forces members in October 2014,
only to be followed two days later by Michael Zehaf-Bibeaus shooting at the National War
Memorial and storming of Parliament Hill, new questions arose about the nature and threat of
terrorism in Canada. Canada has a long history with terrorism and extremism? In fact, while
there has been an overall decline in the incidence of terrorism in Canada since the 2000s
(compared to the previous 40 years), the threat of terrorism to Canada and Canadians persists.
Yet, the ability to access good data on the Canadian experience with terrorism has been lacking.
The previously available terrorism data has been often out of date or incompatible with other
available data. The Canadian Incident Database (C1DB) attempts to fill this void by providing a
3 from 1960 to 2015.
centralized dataset of all reported Canadian-affiliated terrorist incidents
Using data from the CIDI3, the current report provides an empirical overview of Canadian
terrorism, focusing on recent developments, before turning to historical trends over time, and
comparisons of Canada to other Western nations. In addition, the report goes beyond terrorist
incidents looking at extremist crimes more generally to understand the nature of extremism in
Canada. By contextualizing Canadas recent experience with terrorism and extremism in relation
to broader historical trendsas well as the related experiences of our allies, the United States,
the United Kingdom, and Australiathis report lays out an empirical snapshot of the terrorist
threat to Canada.
Recent Developments in Canada, 2015
ISIS-affiliated attacks in Paris prompt a cluster of incidents in Canada.
Shortly following the Paris attacks on November 13th, four separate extremist incidents targeting
Muslims occurred in Canada. These incidents occurred primarily in Ontario and Qubec, and
involved the arson and vandalism of religious institutions and a residence, as well as assaults.
Canadian terrorism in 2015: a series ofhoaxes.
Of the eight terrorist incidents perpetrated in 2015, six were hoaxes. Multiple phone calls made
to airlines in the summer of 2015 alleging that explosives were on board flights leaving the
Toronto, St. John, Edmonton, and Vancouver airports form the core of these incidents. Later in
the year, a second set of hoaxes occurred during a labor dispute, with email messages claiming
that bombs had been planted across schools in Qubec and Ontario.

Terrorism is defined as (1) the incident must be intentional the result of a conscious calculation on the part of a
perpetrator; (2) the incident must entail some level of viojence or threat of violence including property violence, as
well as violence against people; and (3) the perpetrators of the incidents must be sub-national actors the CIDB
does not include actsof state terrorism.
The CIDS also includes incidents which are motivated by extremism, but fall short of formal terrorism definItions.
2
Extremist incidents are defined as serious threats, harm, murder, mayhem, and damage to property that are
motivated and justified by extremist beliefs.
Canadian-affiliated incidents refer not only to those events perpetrated within Canadian territory, but to events
committed abroad by Canadian perpetrators or with Canadian victims and/or targets.
1

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The Animal Liberation Front targetfur farms in Ontario.

Over a three-month period in the summer of 2015, the Animal Liberation Front (ALF)
perpetrated four separate extremist incidents in Ontario. Three of these targeted the commercial
mink industry, with the ALF releasing over 7,000 minks from farms. The fourth incident targeted
an animal research laboratory, vandalising company vehicles.
In Canada: Trends in Terrorism, 2001-2015
Since 2001 terrorism has primarily occurred in Qubec, Ontario, and BC.
Since 2001, 88 percent of all terrorist incidents have taken place in Qubec (3 5%), Ontario
(29%), and British Columbia (24%). Other provinces affected by terrorism during this period
include Alberta (three incidents), and lone incidents in both Newfoundland and Labrador, and
Nova Scotia.
The nature of terrorism differs across Western and Central Canada.
Since 2001, terrorist attacks in British Columbia have primarily involved bombings targeting the
oil/gas industry near the Alberta border (73%), In contrast, terrorist incidents in Ontario were
more likely to target businesses (28%), and in Qubec the most common target was schools
(23%).
Terrorist incidents in Canada are rarelyfatal.
Across the 62 terrorist incidents from 2001 to 2015, only five percent resulted in fatalities (n3).
These include the 2012 shooting of a stagehand at a political victory rally in Montreal; the 2014
car ramming of a Canadian Forces member in St-Jean-sur-Richelieu; and the 2014 shooting of a
Corporal at the National War Memorial in Ottawa.
Outside of Canada: Trends in Terrorism, 2001-2015
Ffty-three Canadians were killed by terrorist attacks perpetrated abroad
Since 2001, 53 Canadians have been killed from terrorist attacks perpetrated abroad. The 9/11
hijackings represent the most fatal attack, killing 24 Canadians. Of all incidents perpetrated
against Canadians abroad, 44 percent occurred in Afghanistan and Iraq.
Fourteen Canadians perpetrated terrorist attacks abroad.
Since 2001, 14 Canadians have been involved in 12 terrorist attacks abroad. Most incidents were
temporally concentrated in 2013 (n3) and 2014 (n=4). The majority of Canadian perpetrators
were affiliated with jihadist-motivated organizations, including ISIS (n=4), Al Qaida (n3), and
Al Shabaab (n=1).
A Historical Evaluation of Terrorism in Canada, 1960-2015
Qubec has consistently experienced the greatest number ofterrorist incidents since 1960.
Since 1960, just under half of all reported terrorist incidents have occurred in Qubec (47%),
with between 24 and 56 percent of all Canadian incidents occurring in Qubec each decade.

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From 1960 to 2015, bombings have represented the greatest threat.

Since 1960, bombings represent the most common tactic used by terrorists. Over this period, 449
bombings have occurred, resulting in the deaths of 387 individuals (of those, 329 deaths were a
result of the 1985 Air India bombing).
Terrorism has caused 375 deaths in Canada.
Since 1960, most fatalities have been caused by terrorist attacks on airplanes. This includes the
, arid the 1989 attack at Ecole
4
1985 Air India bombing, which killed all 329 passengers
Polytechnique in Montreal, where 14 women were fatally shot.
Compared to the 1 960s there are currently fewer incidents, fatalities and sustained terrorist
campaigns.
Since 1960 there have been substantial decreases over time in the number of terrorist incidents.
The relatively fewer incidents that have occurred more recently are also less fatal, and less likely
to be perpetrated by coordinated terrorist campaigns compared to the early I 960s and 1 970s.
Rather, current terrorist incidents are more likely to involve isolated individuals or groups.
Canada Compared to other Western Nations, 2001-2014

Canada appears to have experienced a greater number of incidents per capita than other
5 however, incidents in Canada tend to be less fatal.
Western nations;
Canada has experienced 0.16 terrorist incidents per 100,000 citizens from 2001 to 2014, only
second to the UK with a rate of 0.99 incidents per 100,000 citizens, Despite having a higher rate
of incidents, they tend to be less fatal than in other Western nations, with less than .01 deaths per
6
100,000 citizens: lower than Australia, the US, or the UK.
Violent Extremism in Canada, 2001-2015

Violent extremist crimes occur mostfrequently in Ontario and Alberta.

Of the 76 violent extremist crimes from 2001 to 2015, 56 percent occurred in Ontario (3 6%) and
Alberta (20%). Extremist crimes also occurred in British Columbia, Qubec, New Brunswick,
Nova Scotia, and Prince Edward Island.
Supremacist incidents represent the greatest extremist threat in Canada.
From 2001 to 2015, 49 supremacist-motivated incidents were perpetrated in Canada.
Supremacists were most active in Alberta (41%) and Ontario (27%), with incidents causing five
fatalities. Most incidents appear to be isolated and spontaneous assaults targeting ethnic/religious
minorities.
For incidents against aircraft, the CIDB records the Location for the city in which the flight began,
Western nations assessed in the current report include Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States,
This difference in frequency of incidents may in part stem from the CIDBs more judicious inclusion of a wide
for the
range of low-level, non-legal incidents that may not be captured in the Global Terrorism Database (used
to
2014
2001
from
Canada
in
other countries examined here). For instance, the GTD reports 20 terrorist incidents
rate
of
low
y
comparativel
The
time
frame.
the
same
for
while the CIDB identifies 54 probable terrorist incidents
are
used.
counts
GTD
or
CIDB
whether
holds
incidents
lethality in Canadian

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Introduction
When Martin Couture-Rouleau rammed his car into two armed forces members in October 2014,
only to be followed two days later by Michael Zehaf-Bibeaus shooting at the National War
Memorial and storming of Parliament Hill, new questions arose about the nature and threat of
terrorism in Canada. Embedded in the global context, trends in Canada are often dependent upon
events abroad. Since 2014, international incidents, such as the November 2015 ISIS-affiliated
attack in Paris, often resulted in a bacldash in Canada; frequently, Canada experienced an
increase in violence targeting domestic religious targets in the weeks following a high profile
incident abroad.
Headlines in Canada tend to focus on these high profile events, while ignoring the
historical and global context within which they are embedded. An understanding of terrorism
warrants going beyond isolated incidents and examining trends over time both within and
beyond Canadas borders. Yet the contemporary understanding of terrorism in Canada has been
based on a small selection of sources often limited by time period (e.g., out of date) or by narrow
7 The Canadian Incident Database (CIDB) attempts to fill this void
definitions of terrorism.
8 from 1960 to 2015.
providing a centralized dataset of all Canadian-affiliated terrorist incidents
Using data from the CIDB, this report first provides an overview of Canadian terrorism, focusing
on recent developments. The report then turns to historical trends, offering comparisons of
Canada to other Western nations. Unlike most databases, the CIDB goes beyond terrorist
incidents, looking at extremist crimes more generally to understand the nature of extremism in
Canada.

After presenting the methodology used to create the CIDB, this report reviews trends in
Canadian terrorism. These trends can be divided into five parts. First, we review recent
developments in terrorism and violent extremism for the year 2015. Second, we delineate trends
in the frequency and distribution of terrorist incidents since 2001. Third, taking a step back, we
evaluate how these recent trends compare with Canadas history of terrorism since 1960. Fourth,
we compare Canadas recent experiences with terrorism with the experiences of other Western
countries. To conclude, we broaden our focus to examine recent trends of violent extremism in
Canada.

With the exception of Charters (2008), these collection efforts predated Canadas creation of a national legal
definition of terrorism.
8
Canadian-affiliated incidents refer not only to those events perpetrated within Canadian territory, but to events
committed abroad by Canadian perpetrators or with Canadian victims and/or targets.
200l was selected as the cut-point as it allowed us to capture a fifteen year period (January 1, 2001 to December
31, 2015) and also given that it is commonly regarded as a watershed year for contemporary global terrorism,
including in Canada.

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Creating the CIDB

Few terrorism datasets focus exclusively on the Canadian context. Existing databases covering
Canadian terrorism tend to consist primarily of high-profile incidents andlor are no longer
updated, thereby lacking data on current trends. The Canadian Incident Database (CIDB) fills
this void capturing the full scope of Canadian terrorism by gathering event-level data on
terrorist and violent extremist incidents with a Canadian connection from 1960 to 2015.
Maintained by the Canadian Network for Research on Terrorism, Security and Society (TSAS),
the CIDB is a publicly accessible database that is updated through systematic searches of open
sources by TSAS researchers and external contributions, including data sharing with
international research organizations and consortia. The purpose of the CIDB is to provide
unclassified information to researchers, which can be used to identify patterns and trends in order
to improve our understanding of terrorism and extremist crime in Canada. The CIDB was
originally developed under the National Security Data Initiative (NSDI) of the Canadian Safety
and Security Program (CSSP).

Inclusion Criteria

To be included in the CIDB, an event must meet the TSAS definition of terrorism or
violent extremism- Terrorism represents a specific form of violent extremism that is criminal
and political in nature. In practice, this means for an incident to be included in the CJDB, all
three of the following attributes must be present:
1. The incident must be intentional the result of a conscious calculation on the part of
a perpetrator;
2. The incident must entail some level of violence or threat of violence including
and
1
property violence, as well as violence against people;
actors the CIDB does not
sub-national
be
must
incidents
3. The perpetrators of the
include acts of state terrorism.

These criteria were selected to be consistent with Canadas legal definition of terrorism,
and to align with terrorism defmitions currently employed by global terrorism databases,
allowing for cross-country comparisons. Where events with a Canadian connection are
identified, but fail to meet one or two of the above criteria, they are included in the CIDB;

The full dataset is available at http://www.extremism.cal

To be included in the CIDB incidents had to entail some form of concrete action, ranging from threats to
material/financial support, or direct involvement in the preparation/carrying out of an incident. Given this, incidents
such as peace bonds intended to prevent Canadians from going abroad, or suspicions of individuals potentially
becoming involved in terrorist activity are not included in the CIDB, as they often involve intent, but lack a direct
connection to a specific incident. CIDB flata Collectors try to carefully parse when a foreign fighter or other
individual may have crossed into terrorist activity on the basis of an identifiable incident involving an actual or
attempted attack.

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however, these are labelled as doubt terrorism proper, which is consistent with other major
12
databases. These events have been excluded from all analyses in the current report.
The CIDB also includes incidents motivated by extremism, but fall short of formal
terrorism definitions. Extremist incidents are defined as serious threats, harm, murder, mayhem,
3 While the
and damage to property that are motivated and justified by extremist beliefs)
violent extremism
overlaps,
often
terrorism
or
extremism
violent
classification of an incident as
rather, it targets
harm;
generally distinguishes itself from terrorism by its lack of broader social
specific actors responsible for perceived social ills (Powers, 2014, p. 235).
Building the CIDB
The CIDB was built, in part, by consulting existing databases and open sources, including
govemmentallnon-govcrnmental reports, court documents, and news articles. Two search
strategies guided the creation of the CIDB. First, existing terrorism databases were reviewed to
extract Canadian-relevant incidents. A total of 16 databases and chronologies were consulted,
14 and Canadian specific
including databases that cover terrorist incidents globally (n9),
formed the cornerstone of
events
5 Canadian reports chronicling terrorism
chronologies (n=7).
the database for historical incidents of terrorism in Canada, with 78 percent of incidents from
1960 to 1990 extracted from Kellett et al.s (1991) report andJor the Attributes of Terrorism in
Canada (ATIC) IV (Ross, I 992a) chronology. After this period, incidents were acquired through
a wider range of sources, with a majority coming from Janes Terrorism Data Base, media
sources, RAND Database of Worldwide Terror Incidents, the Global Terrorism Database (GTD),
and Canadian-specific sources, including Perry and Scrivens (2015) and RCMP chronologies.
Information obtained from existing terrorism databases was supplemented by systematic
searches of open sources for media reports, legal documents, scholarly accounts, and government
reports. To obtain these sources, keyword searches were conducted using web-based search
engines, including Google, Google Scholar, and Lexis Nexis. All databases were searched using
12
The CIDB consists of 453 incidents which may be classified as doubt terrorism (24%). These primarily include
another
incidents where there was a lack of intentionality (n=287), insurgency/guerilla action (n45), or consisted of
targets,
against
threats
or
bombings
of
consisted
crime type (n=79). Within Canada, these incidents commonly
Canada,
Outside
schools.
against
threats
bomb
as
motive,
such
political
clear
or
perpetrator
which had no identified
doubt terrorism incidents commonly consisted of insurgepcy/guerilla actions, such as the targeting of NATO
forces in Afghanistan.
The CIDBs definition of violent extremism overlaps with the definition of hate crimes used by many Canadian
police departments. As such, Statistics Canada data on police-reported hate crimes may serve to supplement the
analyses presented in this report. However, a lack of detailed information on the police-reported incidents precludes
them from being integrated into the 0DB. It should be noted that there are substantial discrepancies between the
Statistics Canada data on hate crimes and the CIDB data on violent extremism. For instance, Statistics Canada
reports I , 167 hate crimes across Canada for 2013, while the 0DB reports 6 extremist crimes during this same year.
Thus, violent extremism covered in the current report should be interpreted with caution, as they may be mote
reflective of incidents reported in the media than the full scope of extremism in Canada.
14
Global terrorism databases include the Energy Infrastructure Attack Database (EIAD); Energy Incident Database
(EIDB); Global Terrorism Database (GTD); International Terrorism: Attributes of Terrorist Events (ITERATE);
Janes Database; Mickolus et al. Terrorism Chronologies; Monterey WMD Terrorism Database; RAND-MIFf
Terrorism KiowLedge Database; Worldwide Incidents Tracking System (WITS).
15
Canadian reports/chronologies include: ATIC (Ross, I 992a); Kellett et a). (1991); Burak (2014); Integrated
Terrorism Assessment Centre, Notable Incidents (2014); Perry and Scrivens (2015); Chronology of Criminal
Extremist Incidents in Canada from 1970 (2002); Right-Wing Violence in Canada (RWVIC) (Ross, I 992b).

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I

logical combinations and variations of keywords to capture relevant open source information.
The keyword search was complemented with targeted searches of specific events known by
researchers, and a snowballing strategy, searching additional incidents referenced in articles and
open sources. Where possible, all incidents were cross-referenced with multiple sources. In cases
where incident-level data conflict, the CJDB ranks the credibility of sources as following: (1)
appellate court proceedings; (2) other court proceedings; (3) indictments; (4) government reports
and chronologies; (5) peer-reviewed scholarly articles, books, and databases; (6) media reports;
(7) watch-group reports and databases; (8) extremist websites; and (9) other sources.

Using this strategy the CIDB has compiled 1,845 incidents from 1960 to 2015. For each
incident, the CIDB provides a general summary and codes it for a wide variety of variables,
including the date/time and location (country, province/territory, and city), tactics, weapon type,
target, casualties, successful execution, suicide attck, perpetrator casualties, and whether it was
a hoax. In addition, it also includeswhere availableinformation on perpetrator
characteristics, including the number of perpetrators, ideological motive, and affiliation with a
6
anza
terrorist/violent extremist

Recent Developments in Canada, 2015

In 2015, eight terrorist andfifteen violent extremist incidents took place in Canada.
Hoaxes were the most common terrorist incident, with six hoaxes occurring across the year.
Most took place in the summer of 2015, with a series of bomb threats against airlines. Other
hoaxes included an anthrax scare targeting Conservative Party members, bomb threats against
schools during a labour dispute, and a YouTube video hoax directed at ethnic minorities. Also in
Canada were two jihadist-linked incidents, involving a threat and a plot to detonate explosives in
downtown Toronto. Violent extremist incidents primarily involved animal rights activists
targeting fur farms and an animal research facility, as well as a wave of anti-minority attacks.
These incidents are outlined in detail below.
Terrorism

Threats
February: An alleged member of al-Shabaab posted an online video urging followers to conduct
attacks against shopping malls in North America and Edmonton, listing West Edmonton Mall as
a suitable target.
Plots
March: A 33-year-old Pakistani man was accused of plotting remote-controlled bomb attacks
against the U.S. consulate and financial district in Toronto. A six-month undercover operation
provided evidence that he had received military and weapons training in a camp in Libya, and
However, there was a high degree of missing data for these three variables: Across the 1,845 events the proportion
of missing data for number of perpetrators (74%); ideological motive (40%); and affiliation with a terrorist/violent
16

extremist organization (53%).

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sympathized with Al Qaeda and ISIS. He was arrested March 7, and ordered deported to
Pakistan by the Immigration and Refugee Board.
Hoaxes
March 7: Four Conservative Party Members of Parliament received anthrax hoax letters with
white powder and the message Conservateurs, vous serez anantis, at their constituency offices
in Qubec. The letters were received while new anti-terrorism law was under consideration by
the then-Conservative government.
June 25 July 3: A series of seven bomb threats were made to WestJet and Air Canada airlines,
from June 25 to July 3, 2015, though it was not clear whether the threats were linked to the same
person or group. The threats targeted multiple airports, including Torontos Pearson Airport, St.
Johns International Airport, Edmonton International Airport, and Vancouvers International
Airport. Six passengers suffered minor injuries during the evacuation of an Edmonton-toToronto Flight W5442 when it was forced to divert to Winnipeg on June 29th.
-

November 3: A series of bomb threats shut down over 60 schools in Qubec (from Sept-Iles to
Rouyn-Noranda to Gatineau) and at least one in Ontario (listed below). The bomb threats were
made through email messages by a sender(s) who self-identified as the Sceptre Rouge,
claiming four bombs had already been planted in schools in Qubec and another two had been
hidden on school buses or on city buses used by students. The threats appeared to be aimed at
ending a labor dispute involving teachers.
November 3: A series of bomb threats targeted a school in North Bay, Ontario. This incident was
linked to the bomb threats made against schools in Qubec, stemming from the same email
message.
November 18: A 24-year-old Montreal man was charged in connection with a three minute
YouTube video that was posted in which someone wearing a Joker mask stated that one Arab
would be murdered in Qubec every week. He was charged with uttering threats, possession of a
false weapon, public incitement or hatred, and hoax regarding terrorist activities.
Violent Extremism
Animal Liberation Front
From May to July, the Animal Liberation Front released over 7,000 minks across three
commercial fanus in Ontario. These incidents took place during a series of similar acts being
perpetrated across the US, which led to domestic terrorism charges against two activists
(Associated Press, 2015). In addition, members of the Animal Liberation Front were also
involved in the arson of two trucks belonging to an animal research laboratory in Mississauga.
Anti-Minority
In 2015, nine extremist crimes were directed against racial or ethnic minorities. The first reported
incident occurred in January when the Mamalilikulla-QweQwaSotEm bands office on
Northern Vancouver Island was set on fire. After the fire, racist graffiti was found inside the
office. Later in the year, two women were assaulfedon separate instancesfor wearing face
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coverings and/or headscarves in public. In the first instance, an adult male drove his elbow into
the shoulder of a veiled woman who was trying to enter a Toronto shopping mall. In the second
instance, two teenagers came up behind a pregnant woman and tried to forcibly remove her
hijab. The incidents occurred in October, at a time when the niqab had become a central issue in
the federal election.
Reaction to Attacks Abroad
th,
13
a Mosque and Temple in Peterborough and
lollowing the Paris attacks on November
th,
14
an unknown perpetrator carried out an arson
Kitchener, Ontario were vandalized. On the
attack on the Masjid Al-Salaam (Mosque of Peace) of the Kawartha Muslim Religious
Association during a birth celebration. There were no injuries, but the fire caused more than
th,
14
the Kitchener Ram Dham Hindu temple windows were
$80,000 in damage. Also on the
broken by rock-throwing by unknown perpetrators during a prayer vigil for victims of the Paris
attacks. In Toronto, only a few days later, a woman discovered anti-Muslim graffiti on her front
door and another woman was attacked from behind by two white men who called her a
terrorist, while she was picking up her children from school. In Western Canada, on
rd,
3
two men vandalized a Calgary transit station with anti-Muslim racist graffiti, They
December
were identified from surveillance cameras and charged with hate crimes.

In Canada: Trends in Terrorism, 2001-2015

From 200] to 2015 Canada experienced 62 incidents ofterrorism.
Over the past fifteen years Canada experienced 62 incidents of terrorism. These incidents can be
further broken down into actual events, consisting of incidents that were physically carried out
by perpetrator(s), threats, involving claims that by perpetrator(s) that an incident would be
carried out, and unsuccessful events, consisting of detected, or failed plots to perpetrate an
incident. Table I demonstrates that almost half of all terrorist incidents (44%) consisted of
threats or unsuccessful attempts to carry Out an incident. In contrast, violent extremism was
much more prevalent in Canada, with 76 incidents from 2001 to 2015. In addition, 84 percent of
extremist crimes represent actual events that were successfully perpetrated. In addition,
extremism was more fatal, causing eight deaths. This section takes a closer examination of the 62
terrorism incidents, while violent extremism is explored in a later section.
Table 1. Terrorism and Violent Extremism Incidents and Fatalities in Canada, 2001-2015
Violent Extremism

Terrorism
Type of incident

Actual event
Threat
Unsuccessful
event
Total

Incidents
35
15
12

Fatalities
3
0
0

62

Incidents
64
10
6

Fatalities
8
0
0

76

Note. Actual events represent incidents that were physically carried out by perpetrator(s); threats involve claims by
perpetrator(s) that an incident would be carried out, and unsuccessful events, consist of detected or failed plots.

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As Figure 1 shows, these incidents have been spread across this fifteen-year period and have
resulted in three fatalities. Trends in the number of incidents have been neither consistent nor
stable, with some years completely void of events (2002 and 2011) and others with up to eight
events (2015). Over this period, Canada has not shown any remarkable upward or downward
trends in terrorism. Rather, what appears to be a gradual climb in incidents from 2002 to 2009
(from zero to seven incidents) was followed by a drop in 2011, and subsequent peaks in 2013
and 2015.

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
lncidents

Fatalities

Figure 1. Terrorist Incidents and Fatalities in Canada, 2001-2015

In contrast, fatal incidents were concentrated across 2012 and 2014. The first terrorist
fatality in Canada since 2001 occurred September 4, 2012, when Richard Bain fired an assault
rifle in a Montreal concert hall during the newly-elected premiers victory rally, killing one
stagehand. Rain is currently awaiting trial, and it has been alleged that his motives stemmed from
anti-separatism sentiments. The second incident occurred October 20, 2014, when Martin
Couture-Rouleau drove his vehicle into a pair of Canadian Forces members in the parking lot of
a strip mail in Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu, killing Warrant Officer Patrice Vincent.
Two days later, Michael Zehaf-Bibeau opened fire on two sentries on guard at the
National War Memorial (Cenotaph) in Ottawa, killing Corporal Nathan Cirillo. Following the
attack, Zehaf-Bibeau entered Parliament Hills Center Block where he exchanged fire with
House of Commons Security and RCMP officers. Both Couture-Rouleau and Zehaf-Bibeau were
fatally shot while carrying out their attacks. ISIS has claimed that these attacks were the direct
result of its call for violence in countries supporting the anti-ISIS military campaign, however
the organization did not offer material support. Despite no direct links between the two
offenders, it has been suggested that the first event may have served as a catalyst for Zehaf
Bibeau to put his plan into action (Bouchard & Thomas, 2015).
To better understand the nature of terrorism across Canada, we disaggregate overall
trends to examine the geographical distribution of incidents. From 2001 to 2015, 88 percent of
all terrorist incidents have occurred in Qubec (35%), Ontario (29%), and British Columbia
(24%). On average, 1.5 incidents occurred in Qubec per year, ranging from zero to a high of
three incidents. Ontario experienced slightly fewer incidents, with an average of 1.2 incidents per
year, ranging from zero to four incidents. British Columbia experienced a unique temporal
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distribution of incidents; rather than having incidents spread across the period under study, they
were primarily concentrated in 2008 and 2009, accounting for 67 percent of all BC terrorism
during this period. Other provinces affected by terrorism during this period include Alberta
7
(three incidents), and single incidents in both Newfoundland and Labrador, and Nova Scotia.

BC

ON

QC
Unkno

Unkno

Armed
Assault

Wil

.-,,

Armed
Assaul

ccE;5

Figure 2. Terrorist Tactics across Qubec, Ontario and British Columbia, 2001-2015
Across the 62 incidents perpetrated in Canada, most involved bombings (40%), facility
attacks (24%), and threats (24%). However, the distribution of each incident type varied across
province. Figure 2 highlights the tactics of terrorists across the three provinces most heavily
influenced by terrorism. While incidents in BC consisted almost exclusively of bombings (80%),
only a third of incidents in Qubec (32%) and Ontario (28%) involved explosives. Rather,
Ontario primarily experienced facility attacks (39%), while Qubec commonly experienced a
range of threats (23%), facility attacks (23%), and armed assaults (18%).

QC

4.

-.

Airport

17

Other
50%

Private
Citizen

Aiaf

Cr

33%

14%

BC

ON

Educati
onal
Institut
ions
23%

FI$1fl/

Other
LIfO

tJ%

Two incidents were not classified as occurring in a single province, as one consisted of a single bomb threat
against multiple cities, including Toronto, Edmonton, Saint-John and Vancouver, and the other consisted of a threat
against genera) Canadian targets.
the primary effects are caused by an
The CIDB codebook defines a bombing or explosion as an attack where
energetically unstable material undergoing rapid decomposition and releasing a pressure wave that causes physical
damage to the surrounding environment (6). Conversely, a facility or infrastructure attack is an act, excluding the
use of an explosive, whose primary objective is to cause damage to a non-human target, such as a building,
monument, train, pipeline, etc. (7, emphasis added).
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Figure 3. Terrorist Targets across Qubec, Ontario and British Columbia, 2091-2015
Similarly, the distribution of terrorist targets differs across provinces. In BC, utilities
represented the most common target, reflecting a series of attacks against the gas and oil industry
near the Alberta border. In contrast, terrorist attacks in Qubec and Ontario were spread across a
variety of targets. In Ontario, businesses (28%) and airports and aircraft (17%) were the primary
targets of terrorist attacks. In Qubec, educational institutions (23%) and private citizens and
property (14%) represented the most common targets.

ukn
nownr
Supremacist

rAL

Religious

5Environmentalist

ON
QC

Anarchist
0

10

12

14

16

181

Figure 4. Ideological Motivation of Terrorist Incidents across Canada, 2001-2015

Consistent with trends in tactics and targets, motives of terrorist attacks ranged across
Canada. However, information on the perpetrator(s) motive was available for only 45 percent of
incidents. Across Canada, environmentalist (n=13), religious (n=9), anarchist (n=2), and
supremacist (n=2) motives were present (Figure 4). Environmentalists were most active in BC
(n=8), from 2008 to 2009, and also in Ontario and Qubec from 2004 to 2006. In BC,
environmentalist attacks were mainly directed against gas/oil infrastructure, while incidents in
Ontario and Qubec involved a series of arson attacks against businesses, as well as attacks
directed towards gas/oil companies. All religiotis incidents from 2001 to 2015 were motivated by
18, the
j ihadist beliefs. Jihadist perpetrators were most active in Ontario, capturing the Torontomotivated
Via Rail plot, as well as the more recent activities by Zehaf-Bibeau. Supremacistincidents were less common, with single incidents occurring in Ontario and Qubec. Anarchist
incidents occurred exclusively in Ontario, involving two attacks perpetrated by the Fighting For
Freedom Coalition (FFFC), an anarchist group. However, given the low rate of perpetrator
identification (45%), these trends should be interpreted with caution. Rather than reflecting
broader motivational trends, these distributions may reflect a tendency for some groups to
advertise their motives more explicitly than others, or certain groups to have better success at
evading detection following incidents.
Incidents also ranged in regard to the number of perpetrators involved. However,
information on the number of perpetrators was available for only 29 percent of incidents. Of
these incidents, most involved lone perpetrators (ri 1), with all lone perpetrator incidents
occurring in Qubec (64%) or Ontario (36%). Terrorist incidents involving lone perpetrators
most commonly occurred after 2010, with 10 of the 11 incidents occurring between 2010 and
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2015. The remaining seven incidents involved multiple perpetrators, with four involving two
perpetrators, two involving three perpetrators, and a single incident involving seven perpetrators.
incidents with multiple perpetrators were spread across a wide range of years.

Outside of Canada: Trends in Terrorism, 2001-20 15

Since 2001, 53 Canadians have been killed in terrorist attacks perpetrated abroad. In the same
period, 14 Canadian have perpetrated 12 attacks abroad
Not only has terrorism affected Canadians domestically, it has also impacted Canadians
abroad. Outside of Canada, Canadians have been victims and targets of terrorist attacks, and they
have also been perpetrators or accomplices of attacks abroad. Figure 5 (below) illustrates the
areas within Canada and abroad, where incidents involving Canadians have occurred.
Outside of Canada: Canadian Victims
The 9/li hijackings represent the most fatal incident affecting Canadians, killing 24 in
2001. In terms of incident location, Afghanistan and Iraq were the most frequent sites of foreign
terrorist attacks with Canadian victims; 14 Canadians died in attacks perpetrated in these
countries. However, of the 45 terrorist attacks that affected Canadians abroad, less than half
resulted in fatalities (44%; n=20). There are no significant differences between fatal and non
fatal attacks involving Canadians abroad with respect to location, target, or tactics. Rather,
Canadians who fall victim to terrorist attacks abroad appear to be visiting areas where terrorists
are active, rather than being sought out as the specific target themselves. Canadians were more
frequently victims of terrorist incidents that targeted foreign businesses (29%), or occurred in
tourist areas, such as at restaurants and hotels (16%), as well as in marketplaces and other public
areas (14%). In addition, Canadian journalists and media personnel were also frequent targets of
terrorist attacks, particularly in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iraq (11%). Incidents involving
Canadians primarily involved bombings (42%), armed assaults (36%), and kidnappings (18%).

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-ft

.1
44;
k

H.

..

Figure 5. CIDB Data Plotted on a Map of the World, 1960-2015.

Note 1. Shaded blue areas represent countries in which an event occurred. Red points indicate cityevent locations (when sufficient geographical information is available).

Outside of Canada: Canadian Perpetrators

9 Most incidents
Since 2001, 14 Canadians have perpetrated 12 terrorist incidents abroad.
were geographically
they
but
(n4),
were temporally concentrated in 2013 (n=3) and 2014
All incidents
2
dispersed across Asia, North America, Africa, Western and Eastern Europe.
perpetrated abroad, with the exception of an anarchist incident in Mexico, have been linked to
jihadist motivations or organizations, including ISIS (n4), Al Qaeda and its affiliates (n=3), and
Al Shabaab (n1). These attacks consisted of bombings, threats, facility attacks, and a hostage
taking, and have resulted in 95 fatalities.
Most incidents with Canadian perpetrators did not cause any fatalities. The high fatality
count stems from the bombing of an Israeli tourist bus in Bulgaria in 2012 and three incidents in
2013: a four day siege of employees at a gas plant in Amenas, Algeria which left 42 dead; an Al
Shabaab attack on the Mogadishu Supreme Court, killing 28; and a suicide bombing of an Iraqi
army base on behalf of ISIS, killing 19. Below are descriptions of some of these incidents.
Though the CIDB tracks incidents committed by Canadian perpetrators, it does not focus on individuals as the
primary unit of analysis. The CJDB does not record peace bonds intended to prevent Canadians from going abroad
or suspicions of individuals potentially becoming involved in terrorist activity, nor does it automatically record

individuals travelling to hostile territories. CIDB Data Collectors try to carefully parse when a foreign fighter or
other individual may have crossed into terrorist activity on the basis of an identifiable incident involving an actual or
attempted attack. Consequently, the CIDB does not provide a census of foreign fighters. The discussion of
international trends within the pattern analysis focuses on incidentsnot individual perpetrators.
20
Asia: iraq (n1); Singapore (n=1); Syria (n2). North America: Mexico (n=l); United States (n=2). Africa:
Algeria (n1); Somalia (nl). Europe: Bulgaria (n=1); Denmark (nl); United Kingdom (n1).
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Algeria: Amenas Gas Plant Attack

On January 16, 2013, a group of 32 heavily armed Al Qaeda militants, including two
Canadians, attacked a gas plant in In Amenas, Algeria, After a four-day siege that
started with an attack of a bus of employees headed to the airport, 40 hostages and 29
militants were killed Au Medlej and Xristos Katsiroubas of London, Ontario were
among the attackers killed in the siege. A third Canadian, Aaron Yoon, who had
travelled with Medlej and Katsiroubas to Morocco, returned to Canada after spending
18 months in a Mauritanian prison on separate terrorism-related charges. A former
senior member ofAl Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), claimed responsibility for
the attack; which marked one of the worlds largest terrorist attacks against the oil and
gas industiy.

Somalia: Mogadishu Supreme Court Attack

On April 14, 2013, nine Al Shabaab militants assaulted the Supreme Court in
Mogadishu, Somalia s capital, killing twenty-eight people. Ten national security officers
were shot dead outside the court building before the militants entered the premises and
killed several others, including Iwo lawyers and a court spokesman. Six of the militants
subsequently detonated explosive vests while the other three were killed by security
forces. Al Shabaab formally took responsibility for the attack in a statement later that
day and stated that Mahad All Dhore, who they described as a Canadian national, had
been among the suicide bombers. Nearly two years after the suicide attack in which he
died, Dhore, now confirmed as a Somali-Canadian and former Toronto resident,
appeared in an online Al Shabaab propaganda video in which he called for others to
join the jihad.

Iraq: Tarmiya Suicide Attack

On November 7, 2013 two suicide car bombs exploded at an Iraqi army base in
Tarmiyah, north of Baghdad; the first exploded at the compound gate, allowing the
second to enter the compound, where it exploded in a crowd of soldiers and militaiy
personnel. Acting under the banner of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, one of the
drivers was the Pakistani-Canadian jihadist from Calga,y, Salman Ashrafi (nom-de
guerre Abu Abdullah Al Khorasani). In the aftermath of the event, the Islamic State
wrongly ident/ied Damian Clairmont (alias Mustafa al-Gharib), another Calgary man
in Ashrafi s inner circle, as the attacks second perpetrator. News reports claim that at
least 19 were killed with another 41 injured, although ISIS propaganda has claimed up
to 45 fatalities.

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A Historical Evaluation of Terrorism in Canada, 1960-2015

Only a fraction ofthe terrorist incidents in Canada since 1960 have occurred in the lastfifteen
years.
Placing terrorism in Canada in a historical context shows that recent events chronicled above
differ substantially from earlier trends. Since 1960, 872 terrorist incidents have been perpetrated
in Canada, with only a fraction of these taking place over the last fifteen years (7%; n62).
Below we examine in which aspects the landscape of Canadian terrorism has changed since the
early 1 960s and in which respects it has remained constant. We first look at the scope of
terrorism, then turn to common tactics and targets, as well as ideological motivation across each
decade from 1960 to 2015.
80
70

350

--

300

60
50
o40

250
200z
150

30
20
10
0

100
50
0

-Incidents

=Fatalities

Figure 6. Terrorist Incidents and Fatalities in Canada, 1960-2015

Looking at terrorism in Canada from 1960 to 2015 shows that there have been substantial
decreases in the number of incidents perpetrated over time. Over half of all terrorist attacks in
Canada occurred in a ten-year period during the 1 960s. Figure 6 shows two peaks in incidents
during the early and late I 960s, followed by a drop during the 1 970s, and relatively smaller but
notable increases during the I 980s. However, incidents since the I 990s have remained quite low,
and since 2000 terrorist incidents in Canada represent an all time-low, with fewer than nine
incidents per year.
These trends highlight that most incidents occurred in the 1960s and l970s. Closer
examination of the data demonstrates that these surges of activity represent two terrorist
campaigns in British Columbia and Qubec perpetrated by the Sons of Freedom and the Front de
Liberation du Qubec (FLQ). The incident decline in the mid-I 970s represents the demise of
both groups. The FLQ is Canadas longest running terrorist campaign, and a prime example of
nationalist-separatist terrorism, while the Sons of Freedoma militant wing of the otherwisepacifist Doukhobor Christian sectis the predominant group perpetrating religious terrorism in
Canada, Less pronounced are the peaks of activity occurring throughout the 1 980s and 2000s,
reflecting a shift to terrorist incidents perpetrated by migr groupsperpetrators using Canada
as a grounds to attack foreign grievances and a wave of threats and environmentalist incidents
in the 2000s.
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Terrorist incidents in Canada are rarely fatal. Of the 872 incidents since 1960 only 3
percent have caused fatalities. Despite this low rate, Canada has experienced 375 terrorismrelated fatalities. Responsible for this peak are a few highly fatal incidents, namely the 1985 Air
India Bombing and the Montreal Massacre at cole Polytechnique in 1989. In the summer of
1985, Air India Flight 182 en route from Toronto to Bombay via Montreal disappeared from
Shannon Airport radar after an explosive device detonated at 9,400 meters altitude, 144
kilometers from the Irish coast, killing all 329 onboard, including 279 Canadians. On December
6, 1989, Marc Lpine mass murdered 14 women at the Ecole Polytechnique in Montreal. While
this event is not universaLly classified as a terrorist incident, CIDB includes it as such because
of Lpines suicide note, which stated that his motives stemmed from political reasons,
blaming women and the feminist movement for ruining his life. The fatalities of the Air India
bombing and the Montreal Massacre make the 1980s Canadas most lethal decade for terrorism.
In the following section, we subdivide 1960 to 2015 into six time periods to examine
trends in the nature of terrorism, with respect to both attack location as well as terrorists
preferred tactics and targets. We divide the CIDB into decade intervals from 1960-1969 (n411),
1970-1979 (nl76), 1980-1989 (n=162), 1990-1999 (n=55), 2000-2009 (n=40),.and the halfdecade 2010-2015 (n28).
1960s Other

Other

1970s

i980s

Othcr

2R.

Other

1990s

Other

2010- 15

2000s

4Othcr
\I1%

Figure 7. Most Targeted Provinces, 1960-2015

Figure 7 highlights the provinces that experienced the greatest proportion of terrorism
across each decade. in most decades since the 196 Os, Qubec was the province experiencing the
greatest degree of terrorism. Only in the I 990s and 2010-2015 period did Ontario have a greater
or equal proportion of incidents to Qubec. To a lesser extent than Qubec, both Ontario and
British Columbia have been prominent locations of terrorist events. British Columbia
experienced a high proportion of incidents in the 1960s reflecting the sustained terrorist
campaign of the Sons of Freedom. Ontario has also been a prominent attack location across each
decade, with an increasing proportion of incidents occurring in this province until the 2000s.
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Unlike these provinces with a sustained level of terrorist activity, Alberta featured prominently
as the location of terrorist targets in the I 990s, but not to a significant degree in other periods.
1980s

96
Other

2000s

12%

Figure 8. Most Common Terrorist Tactics, 1960-2015

Figure 8 shows that bombings represent the most frequent terrorist tactic across each
decade, with the exception of the 1980s and 2010-2015 when a surge in threats occurred. The
increase in the 1980s can be traced to 1986 with a series of bomb threats made against aircraft
only one year after the Air India bombing. A similar dynamic occurred in the 2010 to 2015
period, with multiple airlines facing bomb threats in 2015. Facility attacks have remained a
common tactic across Canadas history, typically involving arson of buildings. Assaults also are
among the top tactics during the 1990s (20%) and 2010 to 2015 (11%).

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1970s

l960s

1980s

Airports &
/

;:

Airports &
AItVr&I1

Oth
42%

11%

Private
Citizens
11%

1990s

2010-15

2000s
.7

58%

Utilities
22%

Other
55.4

Utilities

V
Figure 9. Most Common Terrorist Targets, 1960-2015
The targets of terrorist attacks vary across Canadas history. Figure 9 represents the most
21 In the 1 960s and I 970s incidents were primarily
common terrorist targets for each decade.
directed at private citizens, government, and businesses. This changed in the 1 980s with an
increase in incidents directed against airports and aircraft, again, reflecting a wave of threats
against airlines following the Air india bombing. From the 1990s to 2015, private citizens were
consistently one of the top targets. A shift occurred in the 1990s and 2000s with utilities
emerging as a main target of attacks. Again, from 2010 to 2015, airlines were a top terrorist
target, capturing threats against airlines during this period.

2)

period.
The other category captures targets which consisted of 10 percent or less of all incidents for that time
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1960s

1970s

1980s

/_

Rii

2%

2%
2%

2000s

1990s
//

..*

2010-I5.,,

r\

EIk

simci

lSUpr181ICI,

Scp.iitit

4%

Figure 10. Terrorist Motives, 1960-2015

Perpetrators of terrorist attacks span the ideological spectrum, including separatist,
religious, leftist, rightist, environmentalist, supremacist and ethnic extremist views. Figure 10
shows the ideological motivation of terrorist attacks across each decade. Across the 872 incidents
from 1960 to 2015, only 31 percent have a clearly identified motive; the (large) remainder is
captured by the unknown category for each decade. Despite heterogeneity across each decade,
the 1960s and 1970s, were characterized by separatist and religious incidents, stemming
primarily from the Sons of Freedom and the Front de Liberation du Qubec campaigns. The
terrorism landscape evolved in the I 980s, with the emergence of environmentalist-motivated
attacks as one of the most prominent terrorism types. Since their emergence in the 1 980s,
environmentalist-motivated incidents have been slowly increasing as a proportion of overall
terrorist activity. This trend shifted, however, in 2010-201 5, when religious attacks emerged as
the most prominent type of terrorism, along with pockets of anarchist and supremacist activity.
However, caution should be exercised when interpreting these results due to the high number of
cases where there is no identified motivation, and in particular given the differing rates of
motivation identification across each decade.
Recent trends also suggest that terrorism in Canada consists primarily of isolated attacks
with little coordination. Very few incidents appear to be carried out consecutively by the same
group or set of perpetrators, but rather reflect independent incidents. This is distinct from the
early history of terrorism in Canada, the 1960s and 1970s, where sustained terrorist campaigns
characterized the Canadian terrorism landscape. Specifically, two major campaigns account for
the peaks during the 1 960s, the Sons of Freedom and the Front de Liberation du Qubec. For
over two decades (1960-1986) the Sons of Freedom perpetrated 144 incidents in BC, with 63
percent of these attacks occurring over the two-year period from 1961 to 1962. The FLQ,
although active for a shorter periodapproximately ten years (1963-1972)were responsible
for 171 attacks during this period. No organizations of the same scale have been active in
Canadas recent history. Rather, incidents in Canada represent groups of individuals who come
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together for a single attack, or individuals who share a common ideology (e.g. environmentalists,
supremacists), but do not have direct links amongst each other, or coordination across attacks.

110111111
1960s

1970s

1980s

Successful

2000s

1990s

Unsuccesful

2010-15

Unknown

Figure 1 1. Success of Terrorist Incidents, 2001-2015

The CIDB also codes for the success of an attack. Success of a terrorist strike is defined
according to the tangible effects of the attack. Success is not judged in terms of the larger goals
of the perpetrators. For example, a bomb that exploded in a building would be counted as a
success even if it did not succeed in bringing the building down or inducing government
repression. Across decades the success of an incident ranged from a low in the l9SOs (44%) to a
high of in the 2000s (73%). Despite representing a shorter period, 2010 to 2015 represents the
lowest success rate, with only 29 percent of all terrorist plots carried out.

Canada Compared to other Western Nations, 2001-2014

Until now, Canadas experience with terrorism has been underreported by other databases.
Throughout the years, Canada has experienced varying degrees of terrorism. Yet, it is poorly
understood how Canadas experiences compare with those of other Western Nations. This
section examines trends in the scope and nature of terrorist incidents in Canada relative to
Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States. To conduct these comparisons, we rely on
event-level data from the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) for the years 2001 to 2014 (the most
22 Despite following a similar coding strategy,
recent year for which data is publicly available).
data derived from the GTD demonstrates a much lower reporting rate of Canadian terrorism. For
the same time period, the GTD reports 20 terrorist incidents in Canada, whereas the CIDB
identified 54 probable terrorist incidents. Given this underreporting we rely on both Gil) and
CIDB statistics to evaluate the number and frequency of incidents; however, we rely on CIDBs
rich data to assess the nature and types of events.

n Only incidents

which meet the three terrorism criteria were extracted from the GTD.
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Table 2. Terrorism Incidents, 2001-2014

Canada
GTD
CJDB
Source
20
54
# Incidents
.06
.16
Incidents! 100,000

Australia
GTD
14
.07

UK
GTD
609
.99

US
GTD
205
.07

All population estimates from World Bank Data and represent the average population from 2001 to 2014.

Table 2 shows that Canada is much more familiar with facing terrorism challenges than
typically thought. From 2001 to 2014 the countrys terrorism incident rate based on CIOB counts
was 16 per 100,000 citizens, only second to the UK, with a rate of .99 incidents per 100,000
citizens. Australia and the US come in third and fourth with .06 and .07 incidents per 100,000
citizens, respectively. However, Canadas relatively high level of terrorist incidents per 100,000
citizens may stem, at least in part, from the underreporting of country-specific terrorist incidents
in the GTD. Looking at the GTD data, Canada would be much more comparable to the situation
in Australia and the US, with a rate of .05 incidents per 100,000 citizens.
.

Table 3. Terrorism-related FataLities, 2001-2014

US
UK
Australia
Canada
GTD
GTD
GTD
GTD
CJDB
Source
1567
79
4
2
3
Fatalities
.52
.13
.02
.006
.009
Fatalities/ 100,000
to
2014.
2001
from
population
average
the
represent
and
Data
Bank
World
from
All population estimates
countries, Canada has
Despite representing a higher number of incidents relative to other3)23
Looking across the
(Table
the lowest rate of fatalities with less than .01 per 100,000 citizens
countries shows that few terrorist attacks result in any fatalities, with the US representing a high
of .52 terrorist fatalities per 100,000 citizens. However, terrorism-related fatalities in the US are
primarily driven by the 9/Il hijackings. When excluding this incident as an outlier, the US is
more comparable to other Western Nations, with a total of 52 fatalities from 2001 to 2014, a rate
of .02 terrorist-related fatalities per 100,000.

This difference in frequency may, in part, stem from the CIDBs more judicious inclusion of a wide range of low
level, non-lethal, incidents that may not be captured itt the GTDs coding methodology used for the other countries
under study.
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70%
60%
50%
Bombings

40%

Facility Attacks

30%

Threats

20%

r Armed Assaults

1*

10%
0%
UK

Australia

Canada

US

Figure 12. Top Terrorist Tactics, 2001-2014

Figure 12 shows the most common tactics used by terrorists across Canada, Australia, the
UK and the US. Canada and the UK are most comparable, both experiencing bombings as the
most frequent attack type, accounting for 42 percent and 63 percent of all attack types,
respectively. In contrast, facility attacks are more common in Australia and the US, representing
approximately half of all incidents in the two countries. While anned assaults are more frequent
in Australia; however, they only account for 9 percent of all attacks in Canada, slightly lower
than in the US and UK.
45%

._.

40%

35%

Utilities

30%

Business

25%

Private Citizens

20%
15%

:zzj

Police
Religious

10%

fl Government

.5%

0%
Canada

Australia

US

Figure 13. Top Terrorist Targets, 2001-2014

To understand the patterns in terrorist targets, we also looked at the top targets across
countries in Figure 13. For 2001 to 2014, utilities have been one of the preferred targets of
terrorist attacks, representing a series of incidents against gas/oil infrastructure. The UK and US
also experienced terrorism against utilities, but only accounted for a fraction of all incidents.
Rather, terrorism in Canada finds similarities with the UK in terms of businesses being a top
target, representing 13 percent and 9 percent of all attacks respectively. Across all three
countries, private citizens and property were consistently among the top targets. Police targets
were common in Australia and the UK; however, Canada and the US had similar rates of
incidents against police targets.
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We can see further differences between countries when looking at the situations in which
certain tactics were employed against which targets. In Canada, bombings/explosions were most
commonly carried out against utilities (12/23 or 52% of bombings); while in Australia (100%),
the UK (36%), and the US (23%), bombings were most frequently carried out against private
citizens and property. In Canada facility attacks were carried out most frequently against
businesses (33%), similar to the US (40%). However, in the UK facility attacks were most
frequently carried out against private citizens and property (46%), and in Australia against police
targets (57%),

Violent Extremism in Canada, 2001-2015

Extremist incidents have been more frequent than terrorist incidents.

Throughout Canadas recent history, violent extremism capturing crimes motivated by

extremist beliefs but that fall short of terrorism definitionshas presented a threat. Between
2001 and 2015, the frequency of violent extremist incidents in Canada surpassed terrorism, with
76 incidents.
16
14
12
10
8
6
4.,
20

--

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20(4 20(5
Incidents

Fatalities

Figure 14. Violent Extremist Incidents and Fatalities in Canada, 2001-2015

Figure 14 shows that most instances of extremism occurred in 2015, with a slight
increase in incidents between 2006 and 2010, and a slight drop in 2012. Examination of the data
shows that the peak in 2015 can be accounted for by a wave of Animal Liberation Front attacks,
as well as anti-minority attacks (described in Section 1). Across these incidents, violent
extremism has accounted for 8 fatalities, spread across 2001 to 2015; violent extremism fatalities
peaked in 2014, with Justin Bourques allegedly anti-authoritarian-motivated shooting spree that
killed three RCMP officers and injured two others. Five separate incidents are responsible for the
remaining five fatalities. These fatal incidents all involved armed assaults, and were motivated
by supremacist views, occurring in either Alberta or Ontario.

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9
8
7
6

-.

4
-3
2

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Suprenacist

Unknown

Environrnenta1ist

Figure 15. Violent Extremist Motives, 2001-2015

To better understand the character of violent extremism incidents, we also examine

ideological motivation. Figure 15 demonstrates that violent extremism in Canada from 2001 to
2015 has primarily been driven by supremacist-motivated attacks, accounting for 64% (n49) of
all incidents during this period. Supremacists have perpetrated an average of 3.5 incidents per
year. Further, Figure 15 shows that trends in supremacist incidents rose steadily between 2003
and 2010, peaking with eight incidents in 2010. Other violent extremist incidents have stemmed
primarily from environmentalist activists (n= 10), but we have also seen one example each of
Aboriginal militants (n=1, not shown, 2001) and anarchists (n=1, not shown, 2008).
Supremacist Threat
Supremacist incidents have primarily been concentrated in the province of Alberta
(n19), but have also occurred in Ontario (n13), BC (n=6), and Qubec (n=5). These incidents
typically involve unarmed or armed assaults (n=3 1), and appear to be isolated and spontaneous
incidents targeting individuals with specific racial or religious identities. One exception is a
coordinated event on May 22, 2008 where 20 supremacists attacked Kurdish individuals at a caf
in Edmonton. However, supremacist incidents typically only involve a lone individual or a small
group of three to five individuals (86% of all incidents). Only two extreme cases of an incident
with 10 people and one with 20 people are recorded in the database. Supremacist incidents are
often conducted by individuals affiliated with white supremacist groups, including the Neo-Nazis
(n=7), Aryan Guard (n=6), Blood & Honour (n=3), Western European Bloodlines (n=2) as well
as isolated incidents perpetrated on behalf of the Hammer Heads, Northwest Imperative, True
White Boys, and Vinland Front Skinheads.
Environmental Extremism
All environmentalist incidents perpetrated in Canada from 2001 to 2015 occurred in
Ontario (n=6) and BC (n4) on behalf of the Animal Liberation Front. They primarily represent
a series of six incidents where individuals released thousands of mink across farms in the two
provinces. Incidents also include the vandalism of businesses, and a hoax made to the Canadian
Association for Laboratory Animal Science, which promotes animal research, that the group had
injected butyric acid into their offices.
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Conclusion
The preceding analysis demonstrates that Canada has a long history of exposure to terrorism.
While historic trends indicate diminished incidences of terrorism in the 2000s than over the
preceding four decades, the threat of terrorism and violent extremism persists. In particular,
emerging recent trends (since 2013) have shown an increase in terrorist events perpetrated by
Canadians abroad. Violent extremism has shown to be more fatal than terrorism in since 2001,
killing eight Canadians. This threat primarily stems fiom supremacist incidents that have taken
place in Alberta and Ontario, consisting of isolated assaults against ethnic/religious minorities. In
comparison to earlier decades, Canadas recent experiences with terrorism appear to consist of
fewer sustained terrorist campaigns, rather reflecting incidents perpetrated by independent
individuals/groups motivated by common extremist views.
By contextualizing Canadas recent experience with terrorism in relation to broader historical
trends, the more general category of violent extremism, as well as the related experiences of our
alliesthe United States, the United Kingdom, and Australiathis report has generated a sound
empirical picture of the terrorist threat to Canada.

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