National Tracking Poll

Project: 161003
N Size: 1549 Registered Voters
Margin of Error: 2%
October 08-08, 2016

Topline Report
Question
P1

Response

Frequency

Now, generally speaking, would you say that things in the country are going in the
right direction, or have they pretty seriously gotten o on the wrong track?
Right Direction
Wrong Track

P2NET

747
752
50

48%
49%
3%

349
398
22
53
50

23%
26%
4%
34%
3%

Now, thinking about your vote, what would you say is the top set of issues on your
mind when you cast your vote for federal oces such as U.S. Senate or Congress?
Economic Issues
Security Issues
Health Care Issues
Seniors Issues
Womens Issues
Education Issues
Energy Issues
Other

C4

30%
70%

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President?

Strongly Approve
Somewhat Approve
Somewhat Disapprove
Strongly Disapprove
Dont Know / No Opinion

P3

457
092

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President?

Approve
Disapprove
Dont Know / No Opinion

P2

Percentage

57
348
88
25
72
95
55
59

33%
22%
2%
4%
5%
6%
4%
4%

How likely is it that you will watch the 2016 presidential debate on television on
Sunday, October 9th?
Very likely
Somewhat likely
Not too likely
Not at all likely
Dont Know / No Opinion

655
458
204
84
47

42%
30%
3%
2%
3%

Page | 1

Question
C5

Response

Frequency

Who do you think will win the 2016 presidential debate on television on Sunday,
October 9th?
Hillary Clinton
Donald Trump
Dont Know / No Opinion

C6

396
408
383
294
68

26%
26%
25%
9%
4%

647
573
94
35

42%
37%
3%
9%

On a scale from 0 to 10, where 0 is very negative, 5 is neutral, and 10 is very positive,
how would you say you feel about the video you just watched? (N=1,319)
0 - very negative
1
2
3
4
5 - neutral
6
7
8
9
10 - Very Positive
Dont Know / No Opinion

PO4

44%
24%
33%

How much have you seen, read, or heard about a recently released video where
Donald Trump is recorded making sexual advances toward women and uses lewd
language when talking about women?
A Lot
Some
Not Much
Nothing At All

PO3

68
364
504

How important will the presidential debates be to how you will vote in the 2016
general election?
Very important
Somewhat important
Not too important
Not important at all
Dont Know / No Opinion

PO1

Percentage

68
2
0
90
6
223
8
28
6
4
30
7

47%
9%
8%
7%
5%
7%
%
2%
%
%
2%
%

Did the video give you a more or less favorable view of Donald Trump? (N=1,319)
Much more favorable
Somewhat more favorable
Somewhat less favorable
Much less favorable
No impact either way
Dont Know / No Opinion

5
5
94
608
369
45

4%
4%
5%
46%
28%
3%

Page | 2

Question
PO5

Response

3%
4%
2%
3%
45%
5%

42
48
24
304
729
72

3%
4%
9%
23%
55%
5%

On a scale from 0 to 10, where 0 is very negative, 5 is neutral, and 10 is very positive,
how would you say you feel about the video you just watched? (N=1,428)
0 - very negative
1
2
3
4
5 - neutral
6
7
8
9
10 - Very Positive
Dont Know / No Opinion

PO8

40
48
62
406
600
63

Did the video give you a more or less favorable view of other Republicans candidates
for US Senate, Governor or US House? (N=1,319)
Much more favorable
Somewhat more favorable
Somewhat less favorable
Much less favorable
No impact either way
Dont Know / No Opinion

PO7

Percentage

Did the video give you a more or less favorable view of the Republican Party?
(N=1,319)
Much more favorable
Somewhat more favorable
Somewhat less favorable
Much less favorable
No impact either way
Dont Know / No Opinion

PO6

Frequency

368
88
83
58
57
99
7
72
43
8
89
20

26%
6%
6%
4%
4%
4%
5%
5%
0%
6%
3%
%

Did the video give you a more or less favorable view of Donald Trump? (N=1,428)
Much more favorable
Somewhat more favorable
Somewhat less favorable
Much less favorable
No impact either way
Dont Know / No Opinion

23
38
39
396
320
42

5%
22%
0%
28%
22%
3%

Page | 3

Question
PO9

Response

28
4
4
240
722
82

9%
0%
8%
7%
5%
6%

607
703

39%
45%

239

5%

Now, having seen these videos, which of the following statements do you agree with
more?
This video was locker room banter and does not re ect
Donald Trumps true views toward women
This video re ects Donald Trumps true views toward
women
Dont Know / No Opinion

PO13A

0%
3%
0%
2%
43%
4%

Now, having seen these videos, which of the following statements do you agree with
more?
Donald Trump should drop out of the presidential race
Donald Trump should not drop out of the presidential
race
Dont Know / No Opinion

PO13

36
83
37
293
620
59

Did the video give you a more or less favorable view of other Republicans candidates
for US Senate, Governor or US House? (N=1,428)
Much more favorable
Somewhat more favorable
Somewhat less favorable
Much less favorable
No impact either way
Dont Know / No Opinion

PO12

Percentage

Did the video give you a more or less favorable view of the Republican Party?
(N=1,428)
Much more favorable
Somewhat more favorable
Somewhat less favorable
Much less favorable
No impact either way
Dont Know / No Opinion

PO10

Frequency

583

38%

750

48%

26

4%

740

48%

560

36%

249

6%

In general, do you think...

Most men talk like this and use this sort of lewd
language in private
Most men do not talk like this and use this sort of lewd
language in private
Dont Know / No Opinion

Page | 4

Question
PO14

Response

44%

24

6%

238
20
35
469
476

5%
8%
9%
30%
3%
7%

79
302
49
24
53
47

2%
20%
0%
6%
34%
0%

556
837
56

36%
54%
0%

Do you think each of the following are role models for children today, or not? Donald
Trump
Yes
No
Dont Know / No Opinion

PO17_3

688

Do you think each of the following are role models for children today, or not? Hillary
Clinton
Yes
No
Dont Know / No Opinion

PO17_2

40%

If a Republican candidate for elected oce no longer supported Donald Trump

following the release of this video, would that make you more or less likely to vote for
that candidate?
Much more likely to vote for that candidate
Somewhat more likely to vote for that candidate
Somewhat less likely to vote for that candidate
Much less likely to vote for that candidate
It was not aect my vote either way
Dont Know / No Opinion

PO17_1

620

If a Republican candidate for elected oce continued to support Donald Trump

following the release of this video, would that make you more or less likely to vote for
that candidate?
Much more likely to vote for that candidate
Somewhat more likely to vote for that candidate
Somewhat less likely to vote for that candidate
Much less likely to vote for that candidate
It was not aect my vote either way
Dont Know / No Opinion

PO16

Percentage

Now, having seen these videos, do you think leaders of the Republican Party should...
Continue to support Donald Trump as the Republican
nominee for president
No longer support Donald Trump as the Republican
nominee for president
Dont Know / No Opinion

PO15

Frequency

275
09
83

8%
70%
2%

Do you think each of the following are role models for children today, or not? Barack
Obama
Yes
No
Dont Know / No Opinion

8
624
4

52%
40%
7%

Page | 5

Question
PO18

Response

Percentage

If the presidential election were held today and the candidates were Democrat Hillary
Clinton, Republican Mike Pence, Libertarian Gary Johnson, and Green Party
candidate Jill Stein, for whom would you vote?, for whom would you vote?
Democrat Hillary Clinton
Republican Mike Pence
Libertarian Gary Johnson
Green Partys Jill Stein
Dont Know / No Opinion

PO19

Frequency

632
508
28
54
227

4%
33%
8%
3%
5%

Donald Trump said that Bill Clinton has abused women and that Hillary Clinton has
bullied, attacked, shamed and intimidated his victims. Do you Donald Trumps
statement about Hillary Clinton is ...
Mostly true
Mostly false
Dont Know / No Opinion

727
503
39

47%
33%
2%

Note: Group proportions may total to larger than one-hundred percent due to rounding. All statistics are calculated for registered voters with demographic post-strati cation weights applied.

Page | 6

National Tracking Poll #161003, October, 2016

Respondent Demographics Summary

Respondent Demographics Summary

Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics
Demographic

Frequency

Percentage

Registered Voters

549

00%

Gender: Male
Gender: Female
N

722
827
549

47%
53%

Age: 18-29
Age: 30-44
Age: 45-54
Age: 55-64
Age: 65+
N

253
380
296
288
33
549

6%
25%
9%
9%
2%

PID: Dem (no lean)

PID: Ind (no lean)
PID: Rep (no lean)
N

534
500
56
549

34%
32%
33%

PID/Gender: Dem Men

PID/Gender: Dem Women
PID/Gender: Ind Men
PID/Gender: Ind Women
PID/Gender: Rep Men
PID/Gender: Rep Women
N

262
272
23
268
229
287
549

7%
8%
5%
7%
5%
9%

xdemTea

Tea Party: Supporter

Tea Party: Not Supporter
N

478
062
540

3%
69%

xdemIdeo3

Ideo: Liberal (1-3)

Ideo: Moderate (4)
Ideo: Conservative (5-7)
N

463
400
575
438

30%
26%
37%

Educ: < College

Educ: Bachelors degree
Educ: Post-grad
N

08
344
87
549

66%
22%
2%

Income: Under 50k

Income: 50k-100k
Income: 100k+
N

820
503
226
549

53%
32%
5%

xdemAll
xdemGender

Group

age5

xpid3

xpidGender

xeduc3

xdemInc3

Continued on next page

Page | 7

Morning Consult
Respondent Demographics Summary

Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics

Demographic

Frequency

Percentage

Ethnicity: White

26

8%

xdemHispBin

Ethnicity: Hispanic

39

9%

demBlackBin

Ethnicity: Afr. Am.

99

3%

Ethnicity: Other

88

6%

Relig: Protestant
Relig: Roman Catholic
Relig: Ath./Agn./None
Relig: Something Else
N

40
333
40
233
387

26%
22%
26%
5%

xreligion1

Relig: Jewish

45

3%

xreligion2

Relig: Evangelical
Relig: Non-Evang. Catholics
N

4
494
905

27%
32%

xreligion3

Relig: All Christian

Relig: All Non-Christian
N

905
643
548

58%
42%

xdemUsr

Community: Urban
Community: Suburban
Community: Rural
N

366
727
456
549

24%
47%
29%

xdemEmploy

Employ: Private Sector

Employ: Government
Employ: Self-Employed
Employ: Homemaker
Employ: Student
Employ: Retired
Employ: Unemployed
Employ: Other
N

496
23
7
43
60
396
26
88
549

32%
8%
8%
9%
4%
26%
8%
6%

xdemJobStatus

Job Type: White-collar

Job Type: Blue-collar
Job Type: Dont Know
N

577
704
267
549

37%
45%
7%

xdemMilHH1

Military HH: Yes

Military HH: No
N

295
254
549

9%
8%

xdemWhite

demRaceOther
xrelNet

Group

Continued on next page

Page | 8

National Tracking Poll #161003, October, 2016

Respondent Demographics Summary

Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics

Demographic

Frequency

Percentage

RD/WT: Right Direction

RD/WT: Wrong Track
N

457
092
549

30%
70%

Obama Job: Approve

Obama Job: Disapprove
N

747
752
499

48%
49%

#1 Issue: Economy
#1 Issue: Security
#1 Issue: Health Care
#1 Issue: Medicare / Social Security
#1 Issue: Womens Issues
#1 Issue: Education
#1 Issue: Energy
#1 Issue: Other
N

57
348
88
25
72
95
55
59
549

33%
22%
2%
4%
5%
6%
4%
4%

xsubVote14O

2014 Vote: Democrat

2014 Vote: Republican
2014 Vote: Other
2014 Vote: Didnt Vote
N

576
53
52
385
545

37%
34%
3%
25%

xsubVote12O

2012 Vote: Barack Obama

2012 Vote: Mitt Romney
2012 Vote: Other
2012 Vote: Didnt Vote
N

656
573
50
267
546

42%
37%
3%
7%

4-Region: Northeast
4-Region: Midwest
4-Region: South
4-Region: West
N

283
365
575
326
549

8%
24%
37%
2%

xnr1

xnr2Bin

xnr3

xreg4

Group

Note: Group proportions may total to larger than one-hundred percent due to rounding. All statistics are calculated with demographic post-strati cation weights applied.

Page | 9

Morning Consult

Page | 10