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influence to be positive. Further, simplistic and heuristic models are often proposed in a commercial
context, while algorithmic models are generally put forth by the academic community.
Table 1 provides a cross model comparison of the existing algorithmic attribution models based
on seven identifiable model features. They are: (1) Customer Heterogeneity - Consideration of
customer differences, (2) Channel Frequency - Number of repetitive occurrences, (3) Channel
Sequence - Order of occurrence, (4) Channel Interactions - Influence on future touch points, (5)
Channel Decay Effect - Wear out of channel influence, (6) Prior Purchases, and (7) Conversion
Prediction - Probability of conversion for given interactions and changes in probability based on
future interactions (Jayawardane et al. 2015).
Given the influence of prior purchases, shown to be very high by Dalessandro et al. (2012), it is
surprising to see its exclusion in almost all proposed models. Customer segments also exhibit
heterogeneity in advertising channel preference. This has only been examined in two of the
proposed models. Such information is able to provide meaningful interpretations to attribution
estimates. Although the main objective of the proposed models is to derive measures for
attribution, it can be seen from the below table that a higher emphasis has been placed on
prediction of conversion.
Feature
Customer
Heterogene
ity
Channe
l
Freque
ncy
Chann
el
Seque
nce
Channel
Interacti
ons
Channel
Decay
Effect
Prior
Purchas
es
Convers
ion
Predicti
on
al.
al.
Li et al. (2014)
Table 1
A comparison of estimated attribution values across the different models cannot be undertaken
because the assessment of attribution estimates falls under the domain of descriptive modelling.
Therefore, similar to other real world applications, attribution models are devoid of an objective
truth or evaluation set to measure any type of accuracy. An alternative is to evaluate the variance
of the estimated channel contribution values (Shao et al. 2011), yet they still remain subjective to
the eyes of the beholder, given the incapability to judge the level of good attribution
(Dalessandro et al. 2012). An empirical analysis could be used to validate attribution estimates;
given the resource requirement such a validation has only been attempted by Li et al. (2013).
However, it should be noted that estimates obtained by each algorithmic model for the same
advertising channel follow similar trends.
Notwithstanding the compelling benefits of attribution methods, a survey conducted by
Forrester Research reveals a bare majority of 56% marketers engaging in any form of attribution.
This signals a lack of clear processes to address commonly cited obstacles (logical accuracy and
practical applicability) in assigning credit for marketing efforts (Jayawardane et al. 2015). While the
inclusion of the above features ensures the logical accuracy of a model, interpretability will ensure
its practical applicability for practitioners.
References
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