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To:

Interested Parties

From: GBA Strategies


Date: October 31, 2016

Angie Craig Poised to Win in Toss-up MN-2


With just over one week until Election Day, Angie Craig leads Jason Lewis in the race
for Minnesotas 2nd Congressional District, 45 40 percent with Independent candidate Paula
Overby at 9 percent1. When Overbys voters are allocated to their second choice, Craig continues
to lead, 48 42 percent. Angie Craig has consistently led Lewis in this race in every survey we
have conducted since the August primary.

Still a toss-up district. A Congressional race between unnamed opponents is a complete


toss-up between the two parties, 45 45 percent. Independent voters give the Republican
a slim 4-point lead.

Hillary Clinton beating Donald Trump in MN-2. President Obama only won this district
by a tenth of a point in 2012, but Clinton has led here consistently. She currently leads
Trump 43 38 percent, with Gary Johnson (9 percent) and Jill Stein (3 percent) well
behind. In a 2-way vote between Clinton and Trump, her lead expands to 47 40 percent.

Craig leads Lewis. Angie Craig leads Jason Lewis 45 40 percent, with 9 percent going
to a third party candidate. Craig has led Lewis here in every poll we have conducted,
ranging from two points up to five.
When Paula Overbys supporters are allocated by their second choice, Craig maintains
her advantage over Lewis at 48 42 percent. Simulating the two-way race by allocating
undecided voters along partisan lines moves the race to a 51 45 percent Craig lead.
Craigs support is stronger than Lewis as well. Thirty-three percent of the electorate are
strong Craig supporters, while 31 percent are strongly behind Lewis. And among those
who are most interested in voting (7-10 on 10 point scale), she leads Lewis by a healthy
48 40 percent margin (Overby at 6 percent).

Survey of 500 likely voters in Minnesotas 2nd Congressional District was conducted by professional interviews
between October 27-29, 2016. A random sample of likely voters was pulled from a voter file. Respondents were
interviewed by live dialers on land lines and cell phones. Results carry a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points
at the 95 percent confidence interval.
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