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THEBULLWHIPEFFECT
Supplychainstages
10/4/2016
Supplychain:decentralized
Demandfluctuation
Lee,H,P.Padmanabhan andS.Wang(1997),SloanManagementReview
10/4/2016
Bullwhipinsupplychain
Manufacturer
Distributor
Retailer
Customer
demand
Production
Stock
Purchase
Stock
Purchase
Stock
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
Bullwhipinsupplychain
Manufacturer
Distributor
Retailer
Customer
demand
Production
Stock
Purchase
Stock
Purchase
Stock
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
60
100
80
80
100
90
90
100
95
95
10/4/2016
Bullwhipinsupplychain
Manufacturer
Distributor
Retailer
Customer
demand
Production
Stock
Purchase
Stock
Purchase
Stock
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
60
100
80
80
100
90
90
100
95
95
120
80
100
100
90
95
95
95
95
95
Bullwhipinsupplychain
Manufacturer
Distributor
Retailer
Customer
demand
Production
Stock
Purchase
Stock
Purchase
Stock
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
60
100
80
80
100
90
90
100
95
95
120
80
100
100
90
95
95
95
95
95
90
100
95
95
95
95
95
95
95
95
10/4/2016
Bullwhipinsupplychain
Manufacturer
Distributor
Retailer
Customer
demand
Production
Stock
Purchase
Stock
Purchase
Stock
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
60
100
80
80
100
90
90
100
95
95
120
80
100
100
90
95
95
95
95
95
90
100
95
95
95
95
95
95
95
95
95
95
95
95
95
95
95
Causesofbullwhipeffect
Demandforecasting(uncertainty)
Leadtime
Batchordering
Pricefluctuation
Inflatedorder
10/4/2016
Demandforecasting
Periodicreviewpolicy(P)
Basestocklevel
Basestockdependsonestimateofdemandand
standarddeviationofdemand.
Leadtime
Lead time influences the safety stock and reorder
points in Q model (continuous review).
Lead time influences the base stock level in P
model (periodic review).
For long lead time, small error in demand
estimates is amplified. Thus variability is increased.
10/4/2016
Batchordering
TheretailersmayorderbasedonEOQ
Thewholesalerobserverssporadiclargeorder
The wholesaler observers sporadic large order
followedbynoorder.
Volumediscount
FTLquantity
Quarterlysalesquota
Pricefluctuation
Promotionsanddiscounts
Forward buying and inventory stock up
Forwardbuyingandinventorystockup
10/4/2016
Inflatedorders
Shortagegaming
Quantificationofbullwhip
Var (Q)
2 L 2 L2
= 1+
+ 2
Var ( D )
p
p
10/4/2016
Centralizedinformation
Eachstageofsupplychaingettherealdemanddata
(POS)oftheretailer
Varianceoforderplacedbythekthstageofsupply
chainisVar (Qk)
VarianceofcustomerdemandisVar
Variance of customer demand is Var (D)
k
2
2 L
L
Var (Q)
= 1 + i =1 + i =12
Var ( D )
p
p
k
Decentralizedinformation
The wholesaler estimates the mean and variance
of demand at retailers point based on the order
received.
received
Varianceoforderplacedbythekthstageofsupply
chainisVar (Qk)
Variance of customer demand is Var (D)
VarianceofcustomerdemandisVar
k
2 L 2 L2
Var (Q k )
= 1 +
+ 2
Var ( D)
p
p
i =1
10/4/2016
Advantageofcentralizedinformation
In centralized, the variance of order increase additively with the total lead
time. In case of decentralized, the variance of order increase multiplicatively.
Centralized demand information can curb the bullwhip effect.
Reduceinformationuncertainty
Centralizeddemandinformation
Eachstageofsupplychainshouldhaveaccesstothe
Each stage of supply chain should have access to the
realdemandinformation.
Needstrustbuildingandcollaboration amongsupply
chainpartners
10
10/4/2016
Leadtimereduction
Crossdocking
EDI
GPS
Reducedemandvariability
Promotionsandpricediscountisdiscouraged.
EDLPstrategy
EDLP strategy
11
10/4/2016
Strategicpartnership
VMI
Onsitevendorrepresentative
Themanufacturerdoesnotrelyontheorderplaced.
EffectsofBullwhip
Increasedsafetystock
Reducedservicelevel
Inefficientallocationofresources
Increasedtransportationcosts
12