DUBLIN CITY UNIVERSITY

SEMESTER 1 EXAMINATIONS 2015/2016

MODULE:

MM382 Probability and Engineering Statistics

PROGRAMME(S):
BMED
CAM
ME
MWB
ECSAO

B.Eng. in Biomedical Engineering

B.Eng. Mechanical & Manufacturing Eng
B.Eng. in Mechatronic Engineering
BSc Manufacturing Eng. with Business
Study Abroad (Engineering & Computing)

YEAR OF STUDY:

3,X

EXAMINERS:
Dr. Jeremiah Murphy
Dr. Adrian Boyd
Dr. William Smith
Dr. Peter Williams
Dr. W. Wright

(Ext:8924)

TIME ALLOWED:

2 Hours

INSTRUCTIONS:

Answer 4 questions. All questions carry equal marks.

PLEASE DO NOT TURN OVER THIS PAGE UNTIL YOU ARE INSTRUCTED TO DO SO
The use of programmable or text storing calculators is expressly forbidden.
Please note that where a candidate answers more than the required number of questions, the
examiner will mark all questions attempted and then select the highest scoring ones.
Requirements for this paper (Please mark (X) as appropriate)
Log Tables
X
Graph Paper
X
Dictionaries
Statistical Tables
X

MM382 Probability and Engineering Statistics

Semester 1 Examinations 2015/2016

Thermodynamic Tables
Actuarial Tables
MCQ Only Do not publish
Attached Answer Sheet

Page 1 of 10

QUESTION 1
Q 1(a)

[TOTAL MARKS: 25]

[4 Marks]

Consider an industrial process in the textile industry in which strips of a particular

type of cloth are being produced. These strips can be defective in two ways, length
and nature of texture. It is known from historical information on the process that 10%
of strips fail the length test, 5% fail the texture test, and only 0.8% fail both tests. If a
strip is selected randomly from the process and a quick measurement identifies it as
failing the length test, what is the probability that it is texture defective?
Q 1(b)
[4 Marks]
Suppose that we have a fuse box containing 20 fuses, of which 5 are defective. If 2
fuses are selected at random and removed from the box in succession without
replacing the first, what is the probability that both fuses are defective?
Q 1(c)
An electrical system consists of four components as illustrated below. The system
works if components A and B work and either of the components C or D works,
where C and D are identical. The reliability (probability of working) of each
component is also shown in the figure.
(i) Find the probability that the entire system works;

[4 Marks]

(ii) find the reliability of the system if another component of the same type as C and
D is added in parallel to C and D;
[4 Marks]
(iii) find the minimum number of components that must be placed in parallel to C and
D to ensure a system reliability of at least 0.805.
[5 Marks]
Assume that the four components work independently.

MM382 Probability and Engineering Statistics

Semester 1 Examinations 2015/2016

Page 2 of 10

Q 1(d)

[4 Marks]

In a certain assembly plant, three machines, B1, B2, and B3, make 30%, 45%, and
25%, respectively, of the products. It is known from past experience that 2%, 3%,
and 2% of the products made by each machine, respectively, are defective. Now,
suppose that a finished product is randomly selected. What is the probability that it is
defective?
[End of Question 1]
QUESTION 2

[TOTAL MARKS: 25]

Q 2(a)
A large chain retailer purchases a certain kind of electronic device from a
manufacturer. The manufacturer indicates that the defective rate of the device is 3%.
(i) An inspector randomly picks 20 items from a shipment. What is the probability that
there will be at least one defective item among these 20?
[3 Marks]
(ii) Suppose that the retailer receives 10 shipments in a month and the inspector
randomly tests 20 devices per shipment. What is the probability that there will be
exactly 3 shipments each containing at least one defective device among the 20 that
are selected and tested from the shipment?
[3 Marks]
Q 2(b)
A research engineer for a tyre manufacturer is investigating tyre life for a new rubber
compound and has built 16 tyres and tested them in a road test. The sample mean
and standard deviation are 60139.7 km and 3645.94 km respectively.
(i)
Find a 95% confidence interval on mean tyre life, stating clearly any
assumptions used.
[6 Marks]
(ii)
Find a 95% confidence interval on the variance of tyre lives.
[6 Marks]
Q 2(c)
An article in Engineering Horizons in 2011 reported that 117 of 484 new engineering
graduates were planning to continue studying for an advanced degree. Consider this
a random sample of the 2011 graduating class.
(i)
(ii)

Find a 90% confidence interval on the proportion of such graduates

planning to continue their education.
[5 Marks]
A commentator states that a quarter of all 2011 engineering graduates
continued their education. Could they be right? Explain your answer.
[2 Marks]
[End of Question 2]

MM382 Probability and Engineering Statistics

Semester 1 Examinations 2015/2016

Page 3 of 10

QUESTION 3

[25 MARKS]

A ceramic part is used in popular coffee makers. This ceramic part is made by filling
the cavity between two dies of a pressing machine with a mixture of clay, water and
oil. After pressing, but before the part is dried to a hardened state, critical dimensions
are measured. The depth of the slot is of interest here. Slot depth was measured on
three ceramic parts selected from production every half hour during the first shift
from 6 A.M. to 3.P.M. The data in the table below were obtained on a Friday.

Is this manufacturing process under control? Explain your answer. Please note that
the correct choice of statistical tool(s) used in your explanation is crucial to obtaining
full marks.

[End of Question 3]

MM382 Probability and Engineering Statistics

Semester 1 Examinations 2015/2016

Page 4 of 10

QUESTION 4

[TOTAL MARKS: 25]

Q 4(a)
A device with a 1000-hour useful life has a failure rate of 0.0001 per hour during its
useful phase.
(i) What will be its reliability for an operating period of 100 hours?

[4 Marks]

(ii) What is the probability that the device will not fail in its entire useful life period of
1000 hours?
[4 Marks]
Q 4(b)
A machine has the following times (hours): 5,000, 6,000, 4,500 and 2,000 hours.
(i) What is the mean time between failures (MTBF)?

[2 Marks]

(ii) What is the failure rate, to five decimal places?

[2 Marks]

(iii) What is the 200-hour machine reliability?

[2 Marks]

Q 4(c)
A system consists of five units, as shown below:

[11 Marks]

The reliability of the X unit is 0.9900. The other four units are identical. If the system
reliability goal is 0.9896. What is the minimum reliability that each of the Y units must
have, to four deciaml places?
[End of Question 4]

MM382 Probability and Engineering Statistics

Semester 1 Examinations 2015/2016

Page 5 of 10

QUESTION 5

[TOTAL MARKS: 25]

Q 5(a)

[8 Marks]

To compare customer satisfaction levels of two competing cable television

companies, 174 customers of Company 1 and 355 customers of Company 2 were
randomly selected and were asked to rate their cable companies on a five-point
scale, with 1 being least satisfied and 5 most satisfied. The survey results are
summarized in the following table:

Construct a point estimate and a 99% confidence interval for the difference in
average satisfaction levels of customers of the two companies as measured on this
five-point scale. What, if anything, can you conclude?
Q 5(b)

[17 Marks]

Trace metals in drinking water affect the flavor and an unusually high concentration
can pose a health hazard. Five pairs of data were taken measuring zinc
concentration in bottom water and surface water. Does the data suggest that the
true average concentration in the bottom water exceeds that of surface water?
Explain your answer. Conduct the necessary statistical tests where appropriate and
possible.

[End of Question 5]
MM382 Probability and Engineering Statistics
Semester 1 Examinations 2015/2016

Page 6 of 10

Summary Statistics
Sample Mean:

x=

x
n

Sample Standard Deviation:

s=

(x x) 2
n 1

or

Laws of Probability
p(not A) = 1 - p(A)
p(A and B) = p(A) . p(B)
p(A or B) = p(A) + p(B)

s=

2
i

nx 2

i=1

n 1

for any event A.

for independent events, A and B.
for mutually exclusive events, A and B.

Probability Distributions
Binomial distribution:
p
=
probability of occurrence on a single trial.
q
=
1-p
n
=
number of (independent) trials.
P(r) denotes the probability of exactly r occurrences.
n!
n
Cr =
P(r) = nCr . qn-r . pr
where
r !( n r )!
Poisson distribution:
= average number of occurrences per interval.
e r
P(r) =
r!
Normal distribution:

z=

The standard normal score

Refer to tables of the normal distribution for corresponding probabilities.

Confidence Intervals
95% confidence interval for the population mean:

x 1. 96

Approximate 95% confidence interval for the population proportion:

p(1 p )
p 1.96
n

MM382 Probability and Engineering Statistics

Semester 1 Examinations 2015/2016

Page 7 of 10


95% confidence interval for the difference in population means:
x 1 x 2 1.96

12 22
+
n1 n 2

Degrees of freedom when comparing two means: df =

s12 s 22
+
n1 n2
2

s12
s 22


n1 + n2
n1 1 n2 1

Confidence interval for the population standard deviation: use

1 !
!
!!!
!

Regression Analysis

Regression line:y = a + bx where b =

Correlation coefficient:

r=

n xy ( x )( y )
2

n x 2 ( x )

and a =

y - b x
n

( x )( y)
$
'$
'
&%n x ( x ) )(&%n y ( y ) )(
n xy

Quality Improvement

A. The 3-sigma control limits for the X control chart are

UCL = x + A2 r , CL = x , LCL = x A2 r
B. The 3-sigma control limits for the R control chart are
UCL = D4 r , CL = r , LCL = D3 r
C. The 3-sigma control limits for the X control chart (from S ) are
s
s

UCL = x + 3
, CL = x , LCL = x 3
c4 n
c4 n
D. The 3-sigma control limits for the S control chart are
MM382 Probability and Engineering Statistics
Semester 1 Examinations 2015/2016

Page 8 of 10

UCL = s + 3

s
s
1 c42 , CL = s , LCL = s 3
1 c42
c4
c4

E. The 3-sigma control limits for the p control chart are

UCL = p + 3

( )

( )

p 1 p
p 1 p
, CL = p , LCL = p 3
n
n

F. The 3-sigma control limits for the c control chart are

UCL = c + 3 c , CL = c , LCL = c 3 c
G. The 3-sigma control limits for individuals are
UCL = x + 2.66mr , CL = x , LCL = x 2.66mr
H. The 3-sigma control limits for moving ranges are
UCL = 3.267mr , CL = mr , LCL = 0
I. Factors for constructing control charts
n
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

A2

D3

D4

c4

1.880
1.023
0.729
0.577
0.483
0.419
0.373
0.337
0.308

0
0
0
0
0
0.076
0.136
0.184
0.223

3.267
2.574
2.282
2.114
2.004
1.924
1.864
1.816
1.777

0.7979
0.8862
0.9213
0.9400
0.9515
0.9594
0.9650
0.9693
0.9727

J. Unbiased estimate of the process standard deviation = R d2 where

n
d2

2
1.128

3
1.693

4
2.059

5
2.326

6
2.534

7
2.704

8
2.847

MM382 Probability and Engineering Statistics

Semester 1 Examinations 2015/2016

Page 9 of 10

[END OF EXAM]

MM382 Probability and Engineering Statistics

Semester 1 Examinations 2015/2016

Page 10 of 10