The Role of on Equity Analyst

Identification of keys macroeconomics : GDP growth, Inflasi, interest rate dll

Industry Analysis Porters Five Forces
Industry Analysis Bargaining Power of Supplier and Customers.
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Understand company business

Identify competitive advantage
Asess the sustainability of the competitive advantage
Competitive advantage & Financial Performance

Valuation (Last & Not Significant)

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Intrinsic valuation
Relative valuation

Case Study: Industri Telekomunikasi

Listed company BEI:
1. ISAT
2. TLKM
3. EXCL
Memperbanyak revenue dengan meningkatkan investment
Analisis saham mana yang harus dibeli dengan menganalisa Annual Report 5 tahun
terakhir
Point-point dalam Infomemo di TLKM full year 2015
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.

Lihat jumlah ARPU

Jumlah customers
Jumlah BTS
Jumlah Employee
RPS
RPM

Revenue

: P*Q

Forcest revenue

: ARPU*Cust*12

Employee Cost
BTS

: Cost Employee*Jumlah Employee

: Jumlah BTS yang akan dibangun*Cost BTS

Cara analisis saham:

1. Clear New competitive advantage

Analisis dengan membandingkan dengan industry yang sama

Return on Capital : Margin * Turnover
2. Good Growth opportunity
3. Ample upside potential
Which stock do you pick?
a. Competitive advantage
- Clear/unclear CA
- Margin on Turn Over
b. Growth trajectory
- Growing above GDP
- Faster growth vs competitor
c. Caveat
- What are the risk of sustaining the advantage
Analisis pertumbuhan revenue kedepan perusahaan telekomunikasi kecenderungan:
1. Revenue Internet/paket data meningkat
2. Revenue SMS stagnan cenderung menurun
3. Revenue voice cenderung stagnan
Model Building
1. Take view on the economy
- GDP growth forecast
2. Forecast revenue
- The trend of each revenue segment
- Selular trend
- Prudent to assume -> grow below, above or inline
3. Forecast cost
- Margin expansion
4. Forecast capital expenditure
- More effective use of assets