Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Chapter 12
Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis
Multiple Choice Questions
1. Conventional theories presume that investors ____________ and behavioral finance
presumes that they ____________.
A. are irrational; are irrational
B. are rational; may not be rational
C. are rational; are rational
D. may not be rational; may not be rational
E. may not be rational; are rational
Conventional theories presume that investors are rational and behavioral finance presumes
that they may not be rational.
Difficulty: Easy
Difficulty: Easy
12-1
3. Some economists believe that the anomalies literature is consistent with investors
____________ and ____________.
A. ability to always process information correctly and therefore they infer correct probability
distributions about future rates of return; given a probability distribution of returns, they
always make consistent and optimal decisions
B. inability to always process information correctly and therefore they infer incorrect
probability distributions about future rates of return; given a probability distribution of
returns, they always make consistent and optimal decisions
C. ability to always process information correctly and therefore they infer correct probability
distributions about future rates of return; given a probability distribution of returns, they often
make inconsistent or suboptimal decisions
D. inability to always process information correctly and therefore they infer incorrect
probability distributions about future rates of return; given a probability distribution of
returns, they often make inconsistent or suboptimal decisions
E. none of the above
Some economists believe that the anomalies literature is consistent with investors inability to
always process information correctly and therefore they infer incorrect probability
distributions about future rates of return and given a probability distribution of returns, they
often make inconsistent or suboptimal decisions.
Difficulty: Moderate
Difficulty: Moderate
12-2
Difficulty: Moderate
6. DeBondt and Thaler believe that high P/E result from investors
A. earnings expectations that are too extreme.
B. earnings expectations that are not extreme enough.
C. stock price expectations that are too extreme.
D. stock price expectations that are not extreme enough.
E. none of the above.
DeBondt and Thaler believe that high P/E result from investors earnings expectations that are
too extreme.
Difficulty: Moderate
7. If a person gives too much weight to recent information compared to prior beliefs, they
would make ________ errors.
A. framing
B. selection bias
C. overconfidence
D. conservatism
E. forecasting
If a person gives too much weight to recent information compared to prior beliefs, they would
make forecasting errors.
Difficulty: Moderate
12-3
8. Single men trade far more often than women. This is due to greater ________ among men.
A. framing
B. regret avoidance
C. overconfidence
D. conservatism
E. none of the above
Single men trade far more often than women. This is due to greater overconfidence among
men.
Difficulty: Moderate
9. ____________ may be responsible for the prevalence of active versus passive investments
management.
A. Forecasting errors
B. Overconfidence
C. Mental accounting
D. Conservatism
E. Regret avoidance
Overconfidence may be responsible for the prevalence of active versus passive investments
management.
Difficulty: Moderate
10. Barber and Odean (2000) ranked portfolios by turnover and report that the difference in
return between the highest and lowest turnover portfolios is 7% per year. They attribute this
to
A. overconfidence
B. framing
C. regret avoidance
D. sample neglect
E. all of the above
They attribute this to framing.
Difficulty: Moderate
12-4
11. ________ bias means that investors are too slow in updating their beliefs in response to
evidence.
A. framing
B. regret avoidance
C. overconfidence
D. conservatism
E. none of the above
Conservatism bias means that investors are too slow in updating their beliefs in response to
evidence.
Difficulty: Moderate
12. Psychologists have found that people who make decisions that turn out badly blame
themselves more when that decision was unconventional. The name for this phenomenon is
A. regret avoidance
B. framing
C. mental accounting
D. overconfidence
E. obnoxicity
An investments example given in the text is buying the stock of a star\up firm that shows
subsequent poor performance, versus buying blue chip stocks that perform poorly. Investors
tend to have more regret if they chose the less conventional start-up stock. DeBondt and
Thaler say that such regret theory is consistent with the size effect and the book-to-market
effect.
Difficulty: Moderate
12-5
13. An example of ________ is that a person may reject an investment when it is posed in
terms of risk surrounding potential gains but may accept the same investment if it is posed in
terms of risk surrounding potential losses.
A. framing
B. regret avoidance
C. overconfidence
D. conservatism
E. none of the above
An example of framing is that a person may reject an investment when it is posed in terms of
risk surrounding potential gains but may accept the same investment if it is posed in terms of
risk surrounding potential losses.
Difficulty: Moderate
14. Statman (1977) argues that ________ is consistent with some investors' irrational
preference for stocks with high cash dividends and with a tendency to hold losing positions
too long.
A. mental accounting
B. regret avoidance
C. overconfidence
D. conservatism
E. none of the above
Statman (1977) argues that mental accounting is consistent with some investors' irrational
preference for stocks with high cash dividends and with a tendency to hold losing positions
too long
Difficulty: Moderate
12-6
15. An example of ________ is that it is not as painful to have purchased a blue-chip stock
that decreases in value, as it is to lose money on an unknown start-up firm.
A. mental accounting
B. regret avoidance
C. overconfidence
D. conservatism
E. none of the above
An example of regret avoidance is that it is not as painful to have purchased a blue-chip stock
that decreases in value, as it is to lose money on an unknown start-up firm.
Difficulty: Moderate
Difficulty: Moderate
12-7
17. ____________ are good examples of the limits to arbitrage because they show that the
law of one price is violated.
I) Siamese Twin Companies
II) Unit trusts
III) Closed end funds
IV) Open end funds
V) Equity carve outs
A. I and II
B. I, II, and III
C. I, III, and V
D. IV and V
E. V
Siamese Twin Companies, closed end funds, and equity carve outs are good examples of the
limits to arbitrage because they show that the law of one price is violated.
Difficulty: Moderate
Difficulty: Easy
12-8
Difficulty: Easy
20. A long-term movement of prices, lasting from several months to years is called
_________.
A. a minor trend
B. a primary trend
C. an intermediate trend
D. trend analysis
E. B and D
Minor trends are merely day-to-day price movements; intermediate trends are "corrections",
or offsetting movements in one direction after longer-term movements in another direction;
trends lasting for the period described above are primary trends.
Difficulty: Easy
Difficulty: Easy
12-9
22. Price movements that are caused by short-term deviations of prices from the underlying
trend line are called
A. primary trends.
B. secondary trends.
C. tertiary trends.
D. Dow trends.
E. contrary trends.
The secondary trend is caused by these deviations, which are eliminated by corrections that
bring the prices back to the trend lines.
Difficulty: Easy
23. The Dow theory posits that the three forces that simultaneously affect stock prices are
____________.
I) primary trend
II) intermediate trend
III) momentum trend
IV) minor trend
V) contrarian trend
A. I, II, and III
B. II, III, and IV
C. III, IV and V
D. I, II, and IV
E. I, III, and V
The Dow theory posits that the three forces that simultaneously affect stock prices are primary
trend, intermediate trend, and minor trend.
Difficulty: Moderate
12-10
Difficulty: Easy
Difficulty: Easy
12-11
26. On October 29, 1991 there were 1,031 stocks that advanced on the NYSE and 610 that
declined. The volume in advancing issues was 112,866,000 and the volume in declining issues
was 58,188,000. The trin ratio for that day was ________ and technical analysts were likely to
be ________.
A. 0.87, bullish
B. 0.87, bearish
C. 1.15, bullish
D. 1.15, bearish
E. none of the above
(1,031/610) / (112,866,000/58,388,000) = 0.87. A trin ratio less than 1 is considered bullish
because advancing stocks have a higher volume than declining stocks, indicating a buying
pressure.
Difficulty: Moderate
Difficulty: Moderate
12-12
Difficulty: Moderate
29. ____________ is a measure of the extent to which a movement in the market index is
reflected in the price movements of all stocks in the market.
A. put-call ratio
B. trin ratio
C. Breadth
D. confidence index
E. all of the above
Breadth is a measure of the extent to which a movement in the market index is reflected in the
price movements of all stocks in the market.
Difficulty: Moderate
30. Then confidence index is computed from ____________ and higher values are considered
____________ signals.
A. bond yields; bearish
B. odd lot trades; bearish
C. odd lot trades; bullish
D. put/call ratios; bullish
E. bond yields; bullish
Then confidence index is computed from bond yields and higher values are considered bullish
signals.
Difficulty: Moderate
12-13
31. The put/call ratio is computed as ____________ and higher values are considered
____________ signals.
A. the number of outstanding put options divided by outstanding call options; bullish or
bearish
B. the number of outstanding put options divided by outstanding call options; bullish
C. the number of outstanding put options divided by outstanding call options; bearish
D. the number of outstanding call options divided by outstanding put options; bullish
E. the number of outstanding call options divided by outstanding put options; bearish
The put/call ratio is computed as the number of outstanding put options divided by
outstanding call options and higher values are considered bullish or bearish signals.
Difficulty: Moderate
Difficulty: Moderate
Difficulty: Moderate
12-14
12-15
Difficulty: Moderate
Difficulty: Moderate
36. Markets would be inefficient if irrational investors __________ and actions if arbitragers
were __________.
A. existed; unlimited
B. did not exist; unlimited
C. existed; limited
D. did not exist; limited
E. none of the above
Markets would be inefficient if irrational investors existed and actions if arbitragers were
limited.
Difficulty: Moderate
12-16
37. If prices are correct __________ and if prices are not correct __________.
A. there are no easy profit opportunities; there are no easy profit opportunities
B. there are no easy profit opportunities; there are easy profit opportunities
C. there are easy profit opportunities; there are easy profit opportunities
D. there are easy profit opportunities; there are no easy profit opportunities
E. none of the above
If prices are correct there are no easy profit opportunities and if prices are not correct there are
no easy profit opportunities.
Difficulty: Moderate
38. __________ can lead investors to misestimate the true probabilities of possible events or
associated rates of return.
A. Information processing errors
B. Framing errors
C. Mental accounting errors
D. Regret avoidance
E. all of the above
Information processing errors can lead investors to misestimate the true probabilities of
possible events or associated rates of return.
Difficulty: Moderate
12-17
39. Kahneman and Tversky (1973) report that __________ and __________.
A. people give too little weight to recent experience compared to prior beliefs; tend to make
forecasts that are too extreme given the uncertainty of their information
B. people give too much weight to recent experience compared to prior beliefs; tend to make
forecasts that are too extreme given the uncertainty of their information
C. people give too little weight to recent experience compared to prior beliefs; tend to make
forecasts that are not extreme enough given the uncertainty of their information
D. people give too much weight to recent experience compared to prior beliefs; tend to make
forecasts that are not extreme enough given the uncertainty of their information
E. none of the above
Kahneman and Tversky (1973) report that people give too much weight to recent experience
compared to prior beliefs and tend to make forecasts that are too extreme given the
uncertainty of their information.
Difficulty: Difficult
Difficulty: Moderate
12-18
41. DeBondt and Thaler (1990) argue that the P/E effect can be explained by __________.
A. forecasting errors
B. earnings expectations that are too extreme
C. earnings expectations that are not extreme enough
D. regret aviodance
E. A and B
DeBondt and Thaler (1990) argue that the P/E effect can be explained by forecasting errors
and earnings expectations that are too extreme.
Difficulty: Moderate
42. Barber and Odean (2001) report that men trade __________ frequently than women and
the frequent trading leads to __________ returns.
A. less; superior
B. less; inferior
C. more; superior
D. more; inferior
E. none of the above
Barber and Odean (2001) report that men trade more frequently than women and the frequent
trading leads to inferior returns.
Difficulty: Moderate
43. Conservatism implies that investors are too __________ in updating their beliefs in
response to new evidence and that they initially __________ react to news.
A. quick; overreact
B. quick; under react
C. slow; overreact
D. slow; under react
E. none of the above
Conservatism implies that investors are too slow in updating their beliefs in response to new
evidence and that they initially under react react to news.
Difficulty: Moderate
12-19
44. If information processing were perfect, many studies conclude that individuals would tend
to make __________ decision using that information due to __________.
A. less-than-fully rational; behavioral biases
B. fully rational; behavioral biases
C. less-than-fully rational; fundamental risk
D. fully rational; fundamental risk
E. fully rational; utility maximization
If information processing were perfect, many studies conclude that individuals would tend to
make less-than-fully rational decision using that information due to behavioral biases.
Difficulty: Moderate
45. The assumptions concerning the shape of utility functions of investors differ between
conventional theory and prospect theory. Conventional theory assumes that utility functions
are __________ whereas prospect theory assumes that utility functions are __________.
A. concave and defined in terms of wealth; s-shaped (convex to losses and concave to gains)
and defined in terms of loses relative to current wealth
B. convex and defined loses relative to current wealth; s-shaped (convex to losses and
concave to gains) and defined in terms of loses relative to current wealth
C. s-shaped (convex to losses and concave to gains) and defined in terms of loses relative to
current wealth; concave and defined in terms of wealth
D. s-shaped (convex to losses and concave to gains) and defined in terms of wealth; concave
and defined in terms of loses relative to current wealth
E. convex and defined in terms of wealth; concave and defined in terms of gains relative to
current wealth
The assumptions concerning the shape of utility functions of investors differ between
conventional theory and prospect theory. Conventional theory assumes that utility functions
are concave and defined in terms of wealth whereas prospect theory assumes that utility
functions are s-shaped (convex to losses and concave to gains) and defined in terms of loses
relative to current wealth.
Difficulty: Difficult
12-20
46. The law-of-one-price posits that ability to arbitrage would force prices of identical goods
to trade at equal prices. However, empirical evidence suggests that __________ are often
mispriced.
A. Siamese Twin Companies
B. equity carve outs
C. closed-end funds
D. A and C
E. all of the above
he law-of-one-price posits that ability to arbitrage would force prices of identical goods to
trade at equal prices. However, empirical evidence suggests that all of the above are often
mispriced.
Difficulty: Difficult
47. Kahneman and Tversky (1973) reported that people give __________ weight to recent
experience compared to prior beliefs when making forecasts. This is referred to as
__________.
A. too little; hyper rationality
B. too little; conservatism
C. too much; framing
D. too much; memory bias
E. none of the above
Kahneman and Tversky (1973) reported that people give too much weight to recent
experience compared to prior beliefs when making forecasts. This is referred to as memory
bias.
Difficulty: Moderate
12-21
48. Kahneman and Tversky (1973) reported that __________ give too weight to recent
experience compared to prior beliefs when making forecasts.
A. young men
B. young women
C. people
D. older men
E. older women
Kahneman and Tversky (1973) reported that people give too much weight to recent
experience compared to prior beliefs when making forecasts.
Difficulty: Moderate
49. Barber and Odean (2001) report that men trade __________ frequently than women.
A. less
B. less in down markets
C. more in up markets
D. more
E. none of the above
Barber and Odean (2001) report that men trade more frequently than women.
Difficulty: Moderate
50. Barber and Odean (2001) report that women trade __________ frequently than men.
A. less
B. less in down markets
C. more in up markets
D. more
E. none of the above
Barber and Odean (2001) report that men trade more frequently than women.
Difficulty: Moderate
12-22
51. Barber and Odean (2001) report that men __________ than women.
A. earn higher returns
B. earn lower returns
C. earn about the same returns
D. generate lower trading costs
E. none of the above
Barber and Odean (2001) report that men trade more frequently than women and have lower
returns.
Difficulty: Moderate
52. Barber and Odean (2001) report that women __________ than men.
A. earn higher returns
B. earn lower returns
C. earn about the same returns
D. generate higher trading costs
E. none of the above
Barber and Odean (2001) report that men trade more frequently than women and have lower
returns.
Difficulty: Moderate
Difficulty: Moderate
12-23
54. Studies of Siamese twin companies find __________ which __________ the EMH.
A. correct relative pricing; supports
B. correct relative pricing; does not support
C. incorrect relative pricing; supports
D. incorrect relative pricing; does not support
E. none of the above
Studies of Siamese twin companies find incorrect relative pricing which does not support the
EMH.
Difficulty: Moderate
55. Studies of equity carve-outs find __________ which __________ the EMH.
A. strong support for the Law of One Price; supports
B. strong support for the Law of One Price; violates
C. evidence against the Law of One Price; violates
D. evidence against the Law of One Price; supports
E. none of the above
Studies of equity carve-outs find evidence against the Law of One Price which violates the
EMH.
Difficulty: Moderate
56. Studies of closed-end funds find __________ which __________ the EMH.
A. prices at a premium to NAV; is consistent with
B. prices at a premium to NAV; is inconsistent with
C. prices at a discount to NAV; is consistent with
D. prices at a discount to NAV; is inconsistent with
E. B and D
Studies of closed-end funds find prices at premiums and discounts to NAV which is
inconsistent with the EMH.
Difficulty: Moderate
12-24
Difficulty: Difficult
58. Behavioral finance posits that investors possess information processing errors. Discuss the
importance of information processing errors then list and explain the four information
processing errors discussed in the text.
Information processing errors are important because they can lead investors to misestimate
the true probabilities of possible events or associated rates of return. The four information
processing errors are forecasting errors, overconfidence, conservatism, and sample size
neglect. forecasting errors arise when people give too much weight to recent experience. This
leads to forecasts that are too extreme. Overconfidence refers to traders believing that they are
better than average. This belief that they are superior leads to frequent trading (and according
to empirical evidence, lower returns). Conservatism refers investors being slow in responding
to new information rather than acting immediately. Sample size neglect refers to investors
ignoring the size of a sample and making inferences based on a small sample.
Feedback: This question tests the students understanding of information processing errors.
Difficulty: Difficult
12-25
59. Behavioral finance posits that investors possess behavioral biases. Discuss the importance
of behavioral biases then list and explain the four behavioral biases discussed in the text.
Behavioral biases are important because even if information processing was perfect,
individuals may tend to make less-than-fully rational decisions using that information. The
four behavioral biases are framing, mental accounting, regret avoidance, and prospect theory
(or loss aversion). Framing refers to the tendency of investors to change preferences due to
the way an investment is "framed"(i.e., in terms of risk or in terms of return). Mental
accounting is a specific form of framing where an investor takes a lot of risk with one
investment account but little risk with another account. Regret avoidance refers to the
tendency of investors to blame themselves more for an unconventional investment that was
unsuccessful than a conventional investment that was unsuccessful. Prospect theory (loss
avoidance) suggests that the investor's utility curve is not concave and defined in terms of
wealth. Instead, the investor's utility function would be defined in terms of losses relative to
current wealth. Thus, the utility curve is convex to losses and concave to gains giving rise to
an s-shaped utility curve.
Feedback: This question tests the students understanding of behavioral biases.
Difficulty: Difficult
60. Discuss what technical analysis is, what technical analysts do, and the relationship
between technical analysis, fundamental analysis, and behavioral finance.
Technical analysis attempts to exploit recurring and predictable patterns in stock prices to
generate superior portfolio performance. To determine recurring patterns, technical analysts
examine historical returns by means of charts and or time-series analysis (such as moving
averages). Technical analysts do not deny fundamental analysis but believe that prices adjust
slowly to new information. Therefore, the key is to exploit the slow adjustment to the correct
new price when information is released. Technical analysts also use volume and other data to
assess market sentiment in an attempt to ascertain the future direction of the market.
Behaviorists believe that behavioral biases may be related to both price and volume data.
Thus, technical analysis can be related to behavioral finance.
Feedback: This question tests the students understanding of technical analysis; and how
technical analysis relates to fundamental analysis and behavioral finance.
Difficulty: Difficult
12-26