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Overall Survey
U.S. Senate Ballot Test
Kennedy
Lean
5.57%
Undecided
4.34%
Campbell
30.91%
Kennedy
50.31%
Campbell Total: 39.77%
Kennedy Total: 55.88%
Campbell
Lean
8.86%
Undecided
4.52%
Angelle
36.61%
Higgins
44.51%
Angelle Lean
9.77%
Jones Lean
3.42%
Undecided
3.24%
Johnson
58.69%
Johnson Lean
8.35%
U.S. Senate
Age Ranges
18-25
5.50% 26-35
10.92%
62+
31.97%
56-61
16.30%
36-45
13.88%
46-55
21.42%
U.S. Senate
Gender
Male
44.05%
Female
55.95%
U.S. Senate
Race/Ethnicity
LaSno Asian
1.54% 0.54%
Other
1.03%
Black
24.57%
White
72.32%
U.S. Senate
Party Affiliation
Unaliated
15.65%
Republican
36.63%
Democrat
47.72%
U.S. Senate
Congressional District 1
Undecided
4.41%
Kennedy Lean
7.30%
Campbell
23.14%
Campbell
Lean
6.66%
Kennedy
58.49%
U.S. Senate
Congressional District 2
Undecided
3.94%
Kennedy Lean
2.76%
Kennedy
31.30%
Campbell
53.90%
Campbell
Lean
8.09%
U.S. Senate
Congressional District 3
Kennedy Lean
5.41%
Undecided
4.82%
Campbell
21.77%
Campbell
Lean
8.27%
Kennedy
59.73%
U.S. Senate
Congressional District 4
Undecided
3.09%
Kennedy Lean
5.83%
Campbell
32.74%
Kennedy
50.31%
Campbell
Lean
8.03%
U.S. Senate
Congressional District 5
Undecided
4.48%
Kennedy Lean
6.39%
Campbell
26.68%
Kennedy
52.47%
Campbell
Lean
9.98%
U.S. Senate
Congressional District 6
Undecided
5.41%
Kennedy Lean
5.76%
Campbell
27.95%
Kennedy
48.59%
Campbell
Lean
12.29%
U.S. House 3
Age Ranges
18-25
5.00% 26-35
8.48%
62+
31.03%
56-61
16.51%
36-45
15.69%
46-55
23.29%
U.S. House 3
Gender
M
Fe
Male
46.91%
Female
53.09%
U.S. House 3
Race/Ethnicity
La?no Asian
0.87% 0.20%
Other
0.95%
Black
10.75%
White
87.23%
U.S. House 3
Party Affiliation
Unaliated
15.61%
Democrat
31.90%
Republican
52.49%
Angelle
45.40%
Angelle Lean
13.94%
Higgins
53.09%
Angelle
34.46%
Angelle Lean
6.01%
Undecided
5.71%
Angelle
25.81%
Higgins
48.01%
Angelle Lean
13.85%
U.S. House 4
Age Ranges
18-25
4.98% 26-35
10.06%
36-45
10.71%
62+
39.43%
56-61
14.52%
46-55
20.29%
U.S. House 4
Gender
Male
40.54%
Female
59.46%
M
Fe
U.S. House 4
Race/Ethnicity
La?no Asian
0.20% 0.00%
Other
0.94%
Black
26.06%
White
72.80%
U.S. House 4
Party Affiliation
Unaliated
12.50%
Republican
38.81%
Democrat
48.69%
Methodology
Likely run-off election voters were selected at random from a list of registered voters based
on election participation and registration date. Household ages and locations were extracted
as well from this list. In excess of 110,000 households were called over the duration of the
poll. Each household participant was asked to opt-in to the survey if they planned to vote in
the 2016 run-off election.
Using automated voice response technology allows each participant to hear the questions
exactly the same way, from the same voice, spoken with the same tone and nuance. Calls are
placed to randomly-selected phone numbers through a stratified process that insures
approrpiate geographic representation. These calls were placed from 6:00pm to 8:30pm
local time from Monday, December 5th though Tuesday, November 6th.
Survey results undergo a weighting process to ensure the sample is comparable to the
demographic breakdown of expected 2016 Louisiana run-off election participants. Final
results are based on these weights in order to address non-response bias.
For more information, please contact info@trf-grp.com.
26-35
36-45
46-55
56-61
62+
Black
White
Latino
Asian
Other
Democrat
Republican
Unaffiliated
Democrat
34.11%
6.74%
50.65%
2.82%
5.68%
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
13.13%
29.15%
16.78%
16.27%
12.07%
12.60%
50.91%
49.09%
35.60%
59%
3%
1%
1.52%
33.58%
52.45%
6.40%
32.29%
5.31%
3.54%
0%
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
13.79%
29.95%
14.13%
16.54%
13.74%
11.85%
51.16%
48.84%
43.24%
54.20%
0.00%
0.38%
2.19%
53.20%
28.15%
9.79%
52.46%
3.73%
5.87%
0%
0%
100%
0%
0%
0%
11.24%
15.10%
20.09%
13.86%
18.08%
21.62%
49.99%
50.01%
27.16%
67.36%
3.63%
1.22%
0.63%
36.19%
28.04%
11.31%
51.15%
5.44%
4.07%
0%
0%
0%
100%
0%
0%
18.63%
12.56%
19.56%
17.01%
14.93%
17.31%
47.58%
52.42%
23.36%
72.22%
2.78%
0.63%
1.01%
43.48%
30.16%
6.75%
55.13%
3.59%
4.36%
0%
0%
0%
0%
100%
0%
17.18%
13.86%
18.41%
15.99%
18.88%
15.69%
41.39%
58.61%
23.31%
75.16%
0.00%
0.52%
1.00%
53.87%
26.52%
9.09%
52.46%
8.04%
3.90%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
100%
16.63%
13.19%
17.54%
22.14%
15.72%
14.78%
36.87%
63.13%
16.64%
81.49%
0.92%
0.19%
0.76%
52.99%
72.37%
8.84%
12.07%
1.71%
5.01%
7.96%
19.22%
15.34%
20.36%
15.47%
21.65%
7.27%
34.71%
8.31%
19.04%
18.44%
12.22%
41.81%
58.19%
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
86.91%
16.40%
8.73%
63.67%
7.09%
4.10%
4.51%
8.19%
12.93%
21.39%
16.94%
36.03%
18.46%
9.46%
21.63%
18.07%
15.01%
17.37%
44.49%
55.51%
0%
100%
0%
0%
0%
34.94%
42.99%
11.07%
42.83%
0.00%
3.11%
9.44%
0.00%
32.76%
38.75%
0.00%
19.05%
27.74%
23.20%
9.91%
2.31%
21.69%
15.14%
56.66%
43.34%
0%
0%
100%
0%
0%
32.19%
24.15%
18.55%
48.60%
0.00%
8.70%
8.70%
7.68%
31.33%
24.99%
15.83%
11.48%
5.07%
32.93%
9.76%
0.00%
29.15%
23.09%
51.66%
48.34%
0%
0%
0%
100%
0%
33.37%
46.05%
9.45%
36.64%
2.53%
5.33%
8.07%
23.13%
8.51%
20.96%
15.80%
23.53%
29.94%
22.77%
16.10%
16.30%
9.60%
5.29%
44.43%
55.57%
0%
0%
0%
0%
100%
40.71%
50.22%
8.85%
32.98%
3.78%
4.17%
3.87%
12.18%
10.53%
19.52%
18.40%
35.51%
13.52%
22.25%
12.41%
18.32%
17.99%
15.50%
40.42%
59.58%
44.75%
52.95%
1.04%
0.38%
0.88%
100%
6.82%
8.55%
72.58%
8.54%
3.52%
5.81%
7.17%
15.98%
21.16%
15.67%
34.21%
18.70%
7.22%
25.43%
19.02%
12.99%
16.65%
44.67%
55.33%
1.05%
96.28%
1.56%
0.16%
0.96%
0%
28.45%
9.61%
51.04%
4.10%
6.81%
9.73%
15.88%
19.21%
27.83%
11.37%
15.97%
16.59%
18.37%
17.99%
14.34%
16.83%
15.88%
53.69%
46.31%
18.12%
75.26%
3.02%
1.93%
1.68%
0%
Republican
38.73% 24.05% 42.16% 36.19% 35.22% 39.19% 1.56% 48.77% 37.13% 10.60% 33.89%
0%
100%
0%
Unaffiliated
27.69% 22.75% 21.65% 20.33% 10.91% 7.82% 11.53% 16.28% 30.68% 56.03% 25.39%
0%
0%
100%
Campbell
Campbell Lean
Kennedy
Kennedy Lean
Undecided
18-25
26-35
36-45
46-55
56-61
62+
U.S. House 1
U.S. House 2
U.S. House 3
U.S. House 4
U.S. House 5
U.S. House 6
Male
Female
Black
White
Latino
Asian
Other
Kennedy
Kennedy Lean
Unaffiliated
18-25
26-35
36-45
46-55
56-61
62+
U.S. House 1
U.S. House 2
U.S. House 3
U.S. House 4
U.S. House 5
U.S. House 5
Male
Female
Black
White
Latino
Asian
Other
Democrat
Campbell
Campbell
Lean
Kennedy
Kennedy
Lean
Undecided
Male
Female
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
6.07%
18.53%
12.64%
19.43%
15.91%
27.43%
11.90%
28.14%
12.71%
19.01%
13.79%
14.44%
41.74%
58.26%
57.53%
38.37%
2.14%
0.42%
1.54%
77.52%
0%
100%
0%
0%
0%
4.18%
7.90%
15.34%
27.34%
12.43%
32.81%
11.95%
14.75%
16.86%
16.28%
18.00%
22.17%
43.14%
56.86%
24.53%
71.31%
1.92%
1.13%
1.10%
47.67%
0%
0%
100%
0%
0%
5.53%
7.01%
14.47%
21.78%
17.86%
33.34%
18.48%
10.04%
21.44%
17.95%
16.66%
15.43%
46.41%
53.59%
5.90%
91.52%
1.31%
0.52%
0.75%
31.29%
0%
0%
0%
100%
0%
2.78%
10.41%
9.29%
20.91%
10.51%
46.10%
20.83%
8.01%
17.54%
18.78%
18.32%
16.52%
40.31%
59.69%
7.53%
92.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.47%
32.34%
0%
0%
0%
0%
100%
7.19%
8.91%
18.78%
20.06%
16.36%
28.70%
16.14%
14.64%
20.03%
12.78%
16.49%
19.91%
39.92%
60.08%
28.33%
68.22%
1.10%
1.08%
1.27%
45.83%
29.29%
8.67%
53.00%
5.10%
3.94%
6.35%
12.68%
15.75%
23.13%
15.32%
26.76%
16.26%
16.33%
19.32%
16.52%
15.32%
16.25%
100%
0%
23.32%
73.03%
1.98%
0.63%
1.04%
43.78%
32.19%
9.00%
48.20%
5.95%
4.66%
4.82%
9.54%
12.41%
20.07%
17.08%
36.08%
15.61%
15.99%
17.06%
19.08%
16.49%
15.77%
0%
100%
25.56%
71.76%
1.19%
0.47%
1.03%
50.82%
U.S. House 1 U.S. House 2 U.S. House 3 U.S. House 4 U.S. House 5 U.S. House 6
23.14%
6.66%
58.49%
7.30%
4.41%
4.54%
9.47%
9.82%
25.10%
17.62%
33.45%
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
45.05%
54.95%
11.24%
83.96%
2.69%
0.17%
1.95%
40.59%
53.90%
8.09%
31.30%
2.76%
3.94%
9.93%
20.28%
12.99%
16.67%
14.00%
26.13%
0%
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
44.58%
55.42%
52.86%
42.37%
2.21%
1.10%
1.46%
65.79%
21.77%
8.27%
59.73%
5.41%
4.82%
5.11%
8.55%
15.45%
23.21%
16.62%
31.07%
0%
0%
100%
0%
0%
0%
47.14%
52.86%
11.31%
86.63%
0.84%
0.29%
0.92%
32.81%
32.74%
8.03%
50.31%
5.83%
3.09%
4.98%
10.06%
10.71%
20.29%
14.52%
39.43%
0%
0%
0%
100%
0%
0%
40.54%
59.46%
26.06%
72.80%
0.20%
0.00%
0.94%
48.69%
26.68%
9.98%
52.47%
6.39%
4.48%
4.15%
9.40%
15.71%
20.02%
19.26%
31.46%
0%
0%
0%
0%
100%
0%
42.24%
57.76%
28.36%
67.94%
2.09%
0.98%
0.62%
53.74%
27.95%
12.29%
48.59%
5.76%
5.41%
4.33%
8.10%
18.79%
23.21%
16.00%
29.57%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
100%
44.80%
55.20%
18.80%
78.62%
1.46%
0.78%
0.34%
46.29%
Republican
8.08% 35.37% 52.84% 56.16% 29.66% 37.15% 36.23% 43.08% 16.39% 51.60% 38.81% 29.78% 38.16%
Unaffiliated
14.40% 16.97% 15.87% 11.51% 24.52% 19.07% 12.95% 16.33% 17.81% 15.59% 12.50% 16.48% 15.55%
Higgins
Higgins Lean
Undecided
18-25
26-35
36-45
46-55
56-61
62+
Male
Female
Black
White
Latino
Asian
Other
Democrat
Republican
Unaffiliated
18-25
26-35
36-45
46-55
56-61
62+
Black
White
Latino
Asian
Other
29.82%
5.29%
56.53%
0.00%
8.37%
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
50.20%
49.80%
14.10%
83%
0%
0%
2.72%
15.99%
62.52%
21.49%
33.71%
10.25%
49.87%
0.00%
6.17%
0%
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
42.40%
57.60%
26.71%
69.34%
0.00%
1.59%
2.37%
26.19%
36.52%
37.29%
26.47%
10.11%
55.95%
4.94%
2.52%
0%
0%
100%
0%
0%
0%
64.02%
35.98%
10.71%
89.29%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
24.11%
57.76%
18.13%
42.66%
9.96%
35.10%
8.41%
3.87%
0%
0%
0%
100%
0%
0%
47.74%
52.26%
3.51%
92.91%
2.79%
0.00%
0.80%
30.11%
50.38%
19.50%
36.06%
10.29%
47.17%
1.31%
5.17%
0%
0%
0%
0%
100%
0%
44.82%
55.18%
13.99%
84.21%
0.00%
0.00%
1.80%
40.51%
53.55%
5.93%
39.34%
9.74%
40.91%
5.41%
4.59%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
100%
39.47%
60.53%
9.59%
89.08%
0.71%
0.21%
0.42%
36.69%
53.62%
9.69%
43.57%
20.02%
19.22%
5.55%
11.63%
6.55%
21.06%
15.62%
7.60%
21.48%
27.68%
46.51%
53.49%
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
84.23%
1.79%
13.98%
35.62%
8.25%
48.00%
4.55%
3.59%
4.77%
6.74%
16.06%
24.81%
15.94%
31.69%
46.55%
53.45%
0%
100%
0%
0%
0%
25.95%
58.24%
15.81%
74.70%
0.00%
25.30%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
74.70%
0.00%
25.30%
74.70%
25.30%
0%
0%
100%
0%
0%
0.00%
######
0.00%
0.00%
32.16%
0.00%
0.00%
67.84%
0.00%
67.84%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
32.16%
67.84%
32.16%
0%
0%
0%
100%
0%
######
0.00%
0.00%
20.60%
36.96%
35.49%
6.95%
0.00%
14.32%
21.17%
0.00%
19.56%
31.38%
13.58%
54.81%
45.19%
0%
0%
0%
0%
100%
0.00%
66.87%
33.13%
Higgins
Higgins Lean
Undecided
18-25
26-35
36-45
46-55
56-61
62+
Male
Female
Black
White
Latino
Asian
Other
Democrat
Republican
Unaffiliated
Angelle
Angelle Lean
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
4.07%
7.81%
11.35%
27.15%
16.27%
33.35%
43.50%
56.50%
12.80%
84.89%
1.77%
0.00%
0.53%
39.56%
49.43%
11.01%
0%
100%
0%
0%
0%
2.71%
8.90%
16.26%
23.75%
17.41%
30.97%
50.34%
49.66%
22.05%
73.70%
0.00%
0.65%
3.59%
45.52%
32.34%
22.14%
Higgins
0%
0%
100%
0%
0%
6.35%
9.50%
19.73%
18.37%
17.51%
28.53%
48.57%
51.43%
4.65%
94.10%
0.49%
0.00%
0.76%
20.52%
62.64%
16.84%
Higgins Lean
Undecided
Male
Female
Democrat
Republican
Unaffiliated
0%
0%
0%
100%
0%
0.00%
0.00%
16.73%
42.31%
4.67%
36.28%
44.48%
55.52%
12.88%
85.70%
0.00%
0.00%
1.42%
30.83%
46.82%
22.35%
0%
0%
0%
0%
100%
9.26%
11.58%
8.76%
19.97%
18.89%
31.53%
53.34%
46.66%
27.70%
69.32%
0.00%
2.98%
0.00%
53.42%
26.86%
19.72%
33.93%
10.47%
46.07%
4.39%
5.13%
5.35%
7.66%
21.41%
23.70%
15.77%
26.11%
100%
0%
10.66%
86.56%
1.38%
0.29%
1.11%
29.34%
50.58%
20.08%
38.95%
9.13%
43.10%
4.84%
3.97%
4.69%
9.20%
10.63%
22.93%
17.16%
35.38%
0%
100%
10.83%
87.83%
0.41%
0.12%
0.81%
34.14%
54.20%
11.66%
45.40%
13.94%
28.62%
4.48%
7.56%
2.51%
6.96%
11.86%
21.99%
20.98%
35.70%
43.16%
56.84%
28.40%
70.98%
0.00%
0.62%
0.00%
100%
0%
0%
34.46%
6.01%
53.09%
4.13%
2.31%
5.95%
5.90%
17.26%
22.35%
16.84%
31.69%
45.20%
54.80%
0.37%
96.77%
1.65%
0.00%
1.21%
0%
100%
0%
25.81%
13.85%
48.01%
6.63%
5.71%
6.88%
20.26%
18.22%
29.10%
6.28%
19.26%
60.35%
39.65%
9.63%
88.36%
0.00%
0.00%
2.01%
0%
0%
100%
Jones
Jones Lean
Undecided
18-25
26-35
36-45
46-55
56-61
62+
Male
Female
Black
White
Latino
Asian
Other
Democrat
Republican
Unaffiliated
18-25
26-35
36-45
46-55
56-61
62+
Black
White
55.69%
4.19%
34.54%
5.58%
0.00%
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
49.04%
50.96%
41.49%
55.69%
N/A
N/A
2.82%
34.14%
50.91%
14.95%
39.02%
15.09%
35.33%
8.58%
1.98%
0%
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
58.44%
41.56%
37.63%
60.39%
N/A
N/A
1.98%
52.11%
16.22%
31.67%
57.78%
9.21%
20.84%
3.58%
8.59%
0%
0%
100%
0%
0%
0%
47.18%
52.82%
29.19%
70.81%
N/A
N/A
0.00%
51.27%
40.14%
8.59%
56.80%
7.18%
30.54%
3.32%
2.16%
0%
0%
0%
100%
0%
0%
48.72%
51.28%
32.27%
66.20%
N/A
N/A
1.53%
47.04%
39.48%
13.49%
68.73%
4.08%
24.01%
0.00%
3.19%
0%
0%
0%
0%
100%
0%
26.70%
73.30%
20.59%
79.41%
N/A
N/A
0.00%
37.33%
46.29%
16.38%
61.59%
9.10%
23.12%
3.10%
3.09%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
100%
33.99%
66.01%
19.12%
79.65%
N/A
N/A
1.23%
53.99%
39.58%
6.43%
14.74%
7.71%
62.96%
9.23%
5.35%
7.93%
14.53%
12.00%
25.13%
11.47%
28.93%
36.37%
63.63%
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
91.63%
0.00%
8.37%
74.70%
8.71%
12.94%
1.40%
2.26%
3.81%
8.35%
10.42%
18.45%
15.84%
43.13%
42.18%
57.82%
0%
100%
0%
0%
0%
33.64%
52.75%
13.61%
Latino
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Asian
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0%
0%
0%
0%
100%
0%
0% 100%
0%
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Other
40.26%
0.00%
42.24%
0.00%
17.50%
12.38%
17.50%
0.00%
27.36%
0.00%
42.77%
31.20%
68.80%
0%
0%
0%
0%
100%
28.25%
35.29%
36.47%
Jones
Jones Lean
Undecided
18-25
26-35
36-45
46-55
56-61
62+
Male
Female
Black
White
Latino
Asian
Other
Democrat
Republican
Unaffiliated
Johnson
Johnson Lean
Jones
Jones Lean
Undecided
Male
Female
Democrat
Republican
Unaffiliated
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
4.73%
6.69%
10.55%
19.64%
17.00%
41.39%
41.61%
58.39%
6.55%
92.67%
N/A
N/A
0.78%
30.05%
57.63%
12.32%
0%
100%
0%
0%
0%
2.50%
18.19%
11.82%
17.45%
7.09%
42.95%
42.01%
57.99%
24.06%
75.94%
N/A
N/A
0.00%
47.60%
26.93%
25.47%
0%
0%
100%
0%
0%
6.54%
13.52%
8.49%
23.55%
13.25%
34.65%
35.04%
64.96%
62.37%
35.80%
N/A
N/A
1.83%
83.19%
6.94%
9.87%
0%
0%
0%
100%
0%
8.13%
25.24%
11.22%
19.71%
0.00%
35.70%
53.10%
46.90%
70.28%
29.72%
N/A
N/A
0.00%
89.09%
7.98%
2.93%
0%
0%
0%
0%
100%
0.00%
6.14%
28.38%
13.54%
14.30%
37.64%
48.85%
51.15%
43.06%
50.80%
N/A
N/A
6.14%
66.38%
19.88%
13.74%
60.23%
8.65%
22.74%
4.48%
3.90%
6.03%
14.51%
12.47%
24.38%
9.56%
33.06%
100%
0%
23.37%
75.75%
N/A
N/A
0.88%
44.57%
41.01%
14.42%
57.63%
8.14%
28.74%
2.70%
2.79%
4.27%
7.03%
9.52%
17.50%
17.90%
43.77%
0%
100%
27.89%
70.80%
N/A
N/A
1.32%
51.50%
37.30%
11.19%
36.21%
8.16%
44.95%
6.26%
4.42%
3.49%
10.77%
11.28%
19.60%
11.13%
43.72%
37.11%
62.89%
49.04%
50.30%
N/A
N/A
0.66%
100%
0%
0%
87.14%
5.79%
4.70%
0.70%
1.66%
6.54%
4.20%
11.08%
20.64%
17.32%
40.22%
42.85%
57.15%
0.00%
98.97%
N/A
N/A
1.03%
0%
100%
0%
57.85%
17.02%
20.77%
0.80%
3.56%
5.96%
25.50%
7.36%
21.89%
19.02%
20.27%
46.76%
53.24%
17.44%
79.24%
N/A
N/A
3.32%
0%
0%
100%