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[DAILY PETROSPECTIVE] June 23, 2010
Early Evening Market Review for Wednesday
This week’s DOE report showed a larger than expected build in crude oil
stocks, a smaller than expected build in distillate inventories and a small
drawdown in gasoline stocks. These numbers reinforced the generally‐
held consensus that we have plenty of oil in storage. And, while supplies
were building or falling by small amounts, there were fresh concerns over
the pace of economic recovery – which will impact demand.
The Commerce Department reported that purchases of new homes in
the US dropped in May to a new record low, as a government tax credit
expired. Sales fell by a third, to 300,000 in May. It was the smallest
number of new homes sold since 1963.
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CAMERON HANOVER
[DAILY PETROSPECTIVE] June 23, 2010
Analysts had expected a decline of 19% to 410,000 units, at an annualized pace. Instead, we got the number
reported above, less than 75% of the median estimate. Commerce also revised April’s purchase rate to
446,000 from an initially reported 504,000.
CapitalEconomics noted, “The remarkable 32.7% plunge in US new home sales, from 446 in April to a record
low of 300,000 in May, officially marks the start of the double‐dip in housing activitythat we have been
expecting for some time.” As is often the case, Capital Economics has been prescient in its predictions
throughout this recession and recovery – if it can still be called that.
It was one thing to bid up oil prices on the presumption that an economic recovery would improve the
outlook for everything, including employment and demand for gasoline to drive to work and a need for energy
to power industrial production. With economic numbers now seemingly weakening again, it is not as easy to
dismiss the stock surpluses that exist in oil inventories. And it makes
demand numbers twice as significant as they were before.
Equities were surprisingly steady on Wednesday, finishing up 4.92
points to 10,298.44. The euro also posted minor gains against the US
dollar (see chart on right). Nevertheless, neither of these is ofgfering
the dramatic leadership higher that they were for so long between
March, 2009 and May, 2010. We are hard‐pressed to identify strong,
bullish factors in the oil markets or in asset classes on their own.
Investors need to go somewhere else.
The Federal Reserve changed its tone to a more dovish one, given
the weakening we have bveen watching over the last month. They
reiterated their determination to maintain interest rates at record low levels for an “extended period” – but
the period seemed to have been mentally extended even further.
Gasoline stocks dropped a small amount, but they are now at their lowest level since last December, after
having recently been at their highest levels since 1989. It is not something we would put too fine a point on,
that stocks are still historically high, near 21‐year highs,
but that they are at their lowest level in six months. Still,
DOE Report the bulls are looking for anything they can get their arms
Crude Stocks up 2.017 mln bbls around. Distillate stocks, on the other hand, are at their
Distillate up 0.297 highest levels since 1982. We have 41.5 days of forward
Gasoline dn 0.762
cover, more than nine days more than the five‐year
Utilization up 1.5% to 89.4%
Crude Imports up 0.413 mln to 10.112 mln bpd average for this time of year. That is burdensome.
The bottom line is the same. There is plenty of oil in
storage, and demand is not strong enough to absorb
current output. Refineries are likely to cut back on utilization after Independence Day, but that could back up
crude supplies. It is difficult to get bullish right now, and we would be hedged against movement lower.
Crude Oil Daily Technical Chart
Crude oil prices still look like they could decline in earnest soon.
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