US SOCIAL

TRENDS FOR
2017
eMarketers Predictions for
Attribution, Live Streaming,
Messaging, Influencer Marketing
and More
DECEMBER 2016
Debra Aho Williamson
Contributors: Catherine Boyle, Tricia Carr, Lauren Fisher, Corey McNair, Maria Minsker,
Paul Verna, Yory Wurmser

Read this on
eMarketer for iPad

US SOCIAL TRENDS FOR 2017: EMARKETERS PREDICTIONS FOR

ATTRIBUTION, LIVE STREAMING, MESSAGING, INFLUENCER MARKETING
AND MORE
Social media is a major player in the most important conversations in media and marketingincluding hot-button
topics such as attribution, live streaming, digital video advertising and messaging. eMarketer predicts what will
happen in this fast-changing space in 2017.

Facebook and Google will emerge as leaders in

online-to-offline (O2O) attribution. Although the two
digital powerhouses are the most strongly positioned
in this small but growing market, dont expect all the
issues to get solved next year.
The organic reach of marketers posts will decline
on Instagram, and there could be similar changes at
Snapchat that will make it hard to market on these
platforms without buying paid advertising.
The influencer marketing craze will hit several snags, as
brands demand better measurement of their campaigns
and as the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and social
platforms try to rein in the lovefest between marketers
and digital celebrities.
Companies will race to develop bots for Facebook
Messenger and other platforms. But many experiments
will get shelved due to lack of traction.
There still wont be standards for video ad
measurement. Ad formats are too fragmented and
publishers remain too self-interested. Third-party
measurement firms will struggle to keep up.

US Social Network Ad Revenues, 2015-2018

billions, % change and % of digital ad spending
$23.46
$19.31
$15.36
48.6%
41.3%
$10.87

18.2%
2015

25.8%

25.2%

21.3%

23.3%

21.5%

2016

2017

2018

Social network ad revenues

% change
% of digital ad spending
Note: includes paid advertising appearing within social networks, social
network games and social network apps; excludes spending by marketers
that goes toward developing or maintaining a social network presence
Source: eMarketer, Sep 2016
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KEY STAT: Nearly one-quarter of all US digital ad spending

will go toward social networks in 2017. Spending will top
$19 billion.

CONTENTS
2 US Social Trends for 2017

There will be a huge push to monetize live streaming,

but social wont be the only player in this space. Expect
to see live streaming proliferate across the digital
landscape, resulting in battles between platforms and
their publisher partners to control everything from ad
formats to revenue splits.

3 Facebook and Google Will Duke It Out Over

Online-to-Offline Attribution

The next hot social apps will foster live, real-time

conversations. Apps such as Musical.ly, Snow and
YouNow will be among those developing stronger
monetization strategies.

10 The Race Is On to Monetize Live Streaming

WHATS IN THIS REPORT? This report features eMarketers

seven predictions for how social media will develop
in 2017.
US SOCIAL TRENDS FOR 2017

4 Say Goodbye to Strong Organic Reach on Instagram

6 Influencer Marketing Will Run Into Turbulence
7 So Many Bots, So Few Users
9 Still No Standards for Digital Video Advertising
12 The Next Hot Social Apps Will Foster Live,
Real-Time Experiences
13 Last Years Trends: Heres How eMarketer Did
15 eMarketer Interviews
16 Related eMarketer Reports
16 Related Links
2016 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 2

FACEBOOK AND GOOGLE WILL

DUKE IT OUT OVER
ONLINE-TO-OFFLINE ATTRIBUTION
Marketers that want to know what offline actions
their online advertising caused should look seriously
at the tools being developed by Facebook and
Google. The two digital powerhouses are among the
most strongly positioned players in O2O attribution.
Facebooks system uses its own apps to track foot traffic,
and it has partnered with Square, as well as various
customer relationship management (CRM) systems and
commerce application programming interfaces (APIs), to
get offline purchase information. Google does the same,
but its offline information lags behind the real-time view
that Facebook has because of the latters integration with
point-of-sale systems.
There are other players in this field, including Placed,
4Info, Empyr and Datalogix (owned by Oracle), but all are
far smaller than these two. And some of them partner
with Google and Facebook in addition to selling their
data directly.
This area will be a big focus for social media advertising
in 2017. Google and Facebook already offer location-based
digital ads with offline objectives. And advertisers are
ready for it; 78% of US marketers surveyed by the Mobile
Marketing Association in July 2016 said they have already
increased location-based mobile ad spending based on
the availability of foot traffic data.
US Marketers Who Have Increased Spending on
Location-Based Mobile Advertising Based on the
Availability of Foot Traffic Data, July 2016
% of respondents

No
15%

Don't
know
7%

In order for brands to continue to move money into

places like Facebook, the ability to measure offline action
will be a priority, said Jill Sherman, senior vice president
of social strategy and North American social lead
at DigitasLBi.
That said, marketers shouldnt expect the attribution
issue to be completely solved next year. The holy grail
would be a perfect understanding of all the touchpoints,
online and off, leading to a purchase. The reality? Multiple
disconnected databases that arent yet able to talk to
one another.
Once you go into a Best Buy and you buy one of our
products, we dont know who you are as a customer
unless you go online and register your device or sign up
for software, said Leanne Johnson, head of social for
GoPro. The right integrations between not only online
and offline media but online and offline shopping behavior
just havent caught up.
Its true that there are far too many complexities to the
purchase process for any companyeven one with as
much data as Facebook or Googleto fully succeed next
year. But when it comes to making progress, these two
companies will lead the way.

WHAT IT MEANS FOR MARKETERS

Brand marketers need to pay close attention. For
brand advertisers, folks who make their money more in
the brick-and-mortar environment, its not always easy to
prove out the ROI [of online advertising], said Joey-lyn
Addesa, senior director of strategic planning and social
at Mindshare North America. [Facebook and Google]
are definitely going to be in more of a leadership position
because they have to justify a lot of the dollars theyre
going to be getting from the non-direct-response folks.
Beware of the blind spots. Not everyone will like the
idea of using attribution tools from Facebook or Google,
two companies anxious to justify their own systems.
Many marketers believe a neutral third party would be a
better choice, but so far no strong options have emerged.

Yes
78%

Source: Mobile Marketing Association (MMA), "Location Data Study: Key

Findings," Oct 17, 2016
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US SOCIAL TRENDS FOR 2017

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2016 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 3

It will be helpful and directional to know what Facebook

and Google come up with in the way of attribution, but
each has blind spots, said Kieley Taylor, partner and
head of paid social for GroupM Search & Social. The
ultimate victor is going to be someone who can provide a
sophisticated solution that specifically solves the problem
of deduplication across platforms. No ones there yet, and
for Facebook and Google its not in their immediate best
interest to build something like that.
Work toward making better use of in-house data
sets. While data from providers like Facebook or Google
will help fill in some missing pieces, marketers need to
remember that they have a wealth of their own data that
can be used to solve the attribution puzzle.
Brands need to make better use of first-party data. Just
think about how many checkout experiences involve a
piece of information, like a phone number or an email,
or youre using your device to make a mobile payment,
said Anna Newburn, executive strategy director at Havas.
The challenge in 2017 is managing all of those new
data sources.

SAY GOODBYE TO STRONG

ORGANIC REACH ON INSTAGRAM
After Facebook sharply reduced the reach of
marketers organic (i.e., nonpaid) posts a few years
ago, many businesses flocked first to Instagram and
then Snapchat to build their fan bases and speak to
followers without having to pay for distribution.
But these options will diminish in 2017, as Instagram
reduces the visibility of organic brand posts in feeds. And
there are signs that Snapchat will make its own moves on
this front as well.
Instagram first signaled its intentions when it rolled out an
updated algorithm in June 2016. Instead of showing posts
in reverse chronological order, the feed is now ranked
based on what Instagram thinks users would most like to
see and engage with.
That means that a brand post that used to show up in an
Instagram users feed at the time the marketer published
the post now may appear higher up, further down, or not
at all.
Organic distribution has been heavily prized on the
platform. In the first half of 2016, before the algorithm
change, TrackMaven reported that posts on Instagram
by worldwide brands in industries such as apparel,
automotive and sports had far more interactions than on
other social platforms.
Average Number of Interactions with Social Media
Posts Among Brands Worldwide, by Platform and
Industry, H1 2016
Instagram Facebook LinkedIn Twitter
Apparel & fashion

14,866

830

174

154

7,620

1,493

270

114

77

550

75

14

2,828

1,501

97

43

512

695

59

48

Marketing & advertising

1,483

930

39

65

Nonprofit

2,072

896

56

38

176

314

206

15

Retail

5,408

2,669

82

79

Restaurants

1,868

3,726

43

136

15,145

4,472

69

332

474

415

48

30

Automotive
Banking
Consumer goods
Financial services

Pharma

Sports
Telecom

Note: represents activity among brands tracked by TrackMaven, broader

industry metrics may vary; read as the average apparel brand receives 830
interactions per Facebook post
Source: TrackMaven, "2016 Social Media Industry Index," July 27, 2016
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US SOCIAL TRENDS FOR 2017

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2016 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 4

Then theres Snapchat. Though it hasnt ever claimed to

offer marketers the kind of organic reach that Facebook
once did, Snapchat is also making moves that show it is
paying close attention to the interplay between organic
and paid content. This past fall, when Snapchat removed
the auto-advance feature, which played the next story
in a users story list immediately after the previous one
finished, some marketers and publishers experienced
declines in video views, according to an October 2016
article in Digiday.

WHAT IT MEANS FOR MARKETERS

Pinterest may be able to fill in for organic reach.

Although Pinterest is also ramping up its ad products,
there may be more room for organic content than on
other platforms. The majority of the content on Pinterest
comes from businesses, a much different skew than on
Instagram or Snapchat.
Brands really have become an important part of the
experience here, said Jon Kaplan, head of global sales
at Pinterest. Seventy-five percent of the content is from
brands. When they get in front of the right audience with
the right format and the right targeting, that drives the
tangible business results that theyre looking for.

Pay to play will be the phrase of the day. There are

still ways to succeed organically, with more strategically
thought-out campaigns that leverage influencers or
[that] are tapped into the cultural zeitgeist, said Orli
LeWinter, senior vice president of strategy and social
marketing at digital marketing agency 360i. But all of
the social platforms, including Instagram, are getting a
lot more sophisticated with their ad products. Theyre
more cluttered with content, and that reinforces and
accelerates the pay-to-play nature of the space.
To maximize reach, focus on quality. One of the things
that is most important on Instagram is the quality of your
content, said Greg Hounslow, emerging media manager
at WestJet. On Instagram, the content [we create] has to
be absolutely fantastic in order to make the cut, to get on
our feed. I think that has a positive effect in terms of our
organic reach.
Instagram itself offers similar advice. [Marketers] should
focus on creating great content; thats what we use to
make sure that the things that people see are the things
that are valuable to them, said Vishal Shah, director of
product management at Instagram. The better that
content is, the more compelling the creative, the more
compelling the message, the more likely that Im going to
see it.
Dont panic (theres still time to prepare). On
Instagram, brand content is actually very welcome when
done right, and many of the best content creators on the
platform are brands, said DigitasLBis Sherman. Its likely
Facebook will move more slowly to dial down organic
reach on Instagram than it did on its flagship app.

US SOCIAL TRENDS FOR 2017

2016 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 5

INFLUENCER MARKETING WILL

RUN INTO TURBULENCE
Theres no question influencer marketing is hot.
eMarketer estimates advertisers worldwide will
spend more than $570 million on it on Instagram
alone in 2016, and many millions more will go toward
campaigns with influencers on YouTube, Facebook,
Snapchat, Pinterest and other venues. However,
eMarketer expects influencer marketing to face
several big challenges in 2017 that will directly affect
its future growth.
First, marketers will likely be faced with increased
enforcement of FTC regulations covering sponsored
content in social media. Many marketers do not label their
influencer-led posts as sponsored, or do so inconsistently.
Some brands believe the presence of hashtags like
#spon or #ad on an influencers post actually reduces
engagement, so they purposely leave them out. Moves
like this will be ripe for FTC enforcement.
The FTC has already signaled its interest in influencer
marketing by taking enforcement action against several
companies in 2016. And in October 2016, some watchdog
groups banded together to ask the FTC to better regulate
influencer marketing aimed at children.
At the same time, eMarketer predicts social properties
will insert themselves more forcefully into the cozy
relationship that marketers and influencers have
developed. On the more draconian end of the scale,
this could come by reducing the organic visibility
of the marketing messages influencers post, or by
requiring brands to buy ads to promote their influencer
marketing arrangements.
A more benign scenario may be that the social platforms
acquire or invest in influencer-marketing companies,
something Twitter did when it bought Niche in 2015.
If a brand wants to find the best content and the best
influencer network for travel or for food or whatever the
category is, we could easily service that because we
have many of those relationships today, said Pinterests
Kaplan. Pinterest took the first step in that direction in
October 2016 by launching the Pin Collective, a group of
approved content creators.

US SOCIAL TRENDS FOR 2017

Though the Pin Collective doesnt directly generate

revenue for Pinterest, it serves to help create better
advertising on the platform, which will be good for our
pinners and ultimately be better for our partners because
it will lead to better creative, Kaplan said.
And finally, measurement will rise to the forefront as
marketers move beyond tracking broad engagement
metrics for influencer campaigns.
Influencer marketing has to find the attribution
connection and justify that it does have an impact,
said Adam Hirsch, global executive vice president at
Edelman Digital.
ROI measurement topped the list of things US marketers
want improved about influencer marketing, according to a
survey by Chute and Thuzio 360 in August 2016.
Aspects of Influencer Marketing that US Marketers
Would Like to See Improved*, Aug 2016
% of respondents
Measuring ROI

80%

Tracking influence

66%

Influencer discovery

60%

Reporting back

55%

Vetting influencers

55%

Managing list(s) of influencers

Engaging influencers

46%
41%

26%

Influencer relationships

Note: n=137 who use influencer marketing; *automated or made easier

through software
Source: Chute and Thuzio 360, "2016 Influencer Marketing Report," Sep 23,
2016
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WHAT IT MEANS FOR MARKETERS

Disclose, disclose, disclose. Brands are definitely not
playing by the rules yet, but I think disclosure is going to
become more commonplace as the FTC makes more
noise about this issue, said Edelmans Hirsch.
Celebrity endorsers may not provide the best ROI.
Many celebrities with strong social media followings
regularly do paid product posts. But they are expensive
and brands dont always know what they are getting for
their money.

2016 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 6

What we dont pursue is celebrity influencers or

celebrity endorsers because its our point of view that
it is really inauthentic, said Mallorie Rosenbluth, head
of social media at food-delivery service Grubhub. Just
because somebody remembers a celebrity doesnt mean
theyll remember our brand. And we always want to make
sure that our brand is strong in the space, that we dont
become the celebritys brand.
Treat it like a targeted media buy. Instead of
saying, I want somebody with a lot of followers who
has a millennial audience, say, I need somebody
whos influential in beauty, who has a very engaged
audience, who likes false eyelashes. It goes back to that
same rigor around treating this like a media buy, said
DigitasLBis Sherman.
Look to influencers as content providers. The
content that we get through that influencer is almost
more important than what the influencer does with that
content, especially if we can license it and use it in other
ways, said Chris Bowler, senior vice president of social
and content marketing at Razorfish. Content is really a
challenge for our clients. How do you get it? How do you
get enough of it? How do you do it efficiently? Influencer
marketing is helping in that way.

SO MANY BOTS, SO FEW USERS

Thanks to the rapid growth of Facebook Messenger
and other mobile messaging apps, many companies
are now trying to figure out their bot strategy. But in
2017, many of these experiments will be shelved due
to lack of traction and usage.
Already, Facebook Messenger has 33,000 bots on its
platform, while smaller rival Kik has 20,000. Both are
striving to emulate Chinas WeChat, the messaging app
owned by Tencent that supports everything from hailing
a cab to making a restaurant reservation to paying a
utility bill.
Using such an app like a Swiss army knife hasnt exactly
extended to the US, however. Although Messenger
is widely usedeMarketer expects 39.6% of US
internet users will use it this yearconsumers have
been slow to warm up to the idea of chat bots in
messaging applications.
According to an October 2016 Pingup study conducted by
Survata, only 27.4% of US messaging app users had used
a chatbot to communicate with a business. And while
some believe teens and millennials will be more likely to
use them, Pingups study doesnt bear this out.
US Millennial vs. Total Mobile Messaging App Users
Who Have Used a Chatbot to Communicate with a
Business*, Oct 2016
% of respondents

Yes
27.4%

Yes
28.2%

No
71.8%

No
72.6%

Millennials (18-34)

Total (18-54)

Note: n=881 who own a smartphone and have used a mobile messaging
app in the past 30 days; *local business or national brand
Source: Pingup, "Messaging and Chatbots in Local" conducted by Survata,
Oct 27, 2016
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Were used to talking to human beings, said Sherman

of DigitasLBi. I think moving bots into messaging apps
makes all the sense in the world, but most people arent
totally comfortable with using bots yet.

US SOCIAL TRENDS FOR 2017

2016 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 7

Competition from other bot platforms such as Apples

iMessage and Siri, Googles Allo and Amazons Alexa will
only serve to make the market more fragmented.
This does not mean that eMarketer believes bots are a
fad, or that marketers should not take them seriously.
Theyre part of an overall trend toward using artificial
intelligence to accomplish tasks easier, faster and more
intuitively. That scenario is definitely on its way; its just
that 2017 wont be the year when messaging bots will
gain significant traction.

WHAT IT MEANS FOR MARKETERS

If your customers arent there, its not worth your
time. We look to communicate with our consumers
where they are, said Rosenbluth of Grubhub. Thats
why we built a customer care team thats dedicated to
responding to our diners on Twitter and on Facebook. If
our diners are using Messenger to communicate and
want answers there and want to interact with brands
there, then theyll tell us and thats where well go. We
dont want to force our diners to interact with us in a
place where they just arent yet.

That said, there is room to be creative. Absolut in

September 2016 launched a Messenger bot that enables
users in Chicago, Denver and Washington D.C. to select
their favorite Absolut cocktail and get a code that could
be redeemed for a free drink at a nearby bar. The bot
even includes an offer to get a free ride home (up to $20)
from Lyft.
Joao Rozario, vice president of marketing at Absolut,
told The Drum in November 2016 that the activation rate
for the program had exceeded execution benchmarks
by 2x.
Those types of things are very hard to do in mobile
web, said David Marcus, vice president of messaging
products at Facebook, during the Web Summit
conference in November 2016. Youre not going to
download an app just to get a free cocktail.

Bots are simple to use but hard for marketers to

get right. Marketers need to think about what the
messaging looks like, how often they want to reach out to
consumers and what they expect in return, according to
GroupMs Taylor.
Thinking that it could be flighted like a campaign, or
lets test it, is going to lead to a lot of abandonment. This
is an important space to measure twice and cut once,
she said.
Useful and personal are the two most important
watchwords. Can we enable the shopping journey
to happen where users are having the most personal,
the most relevant conversations and where people are
engaging in real time with each other? Figuring out how
eBay can insert itself to that conversation is very, very
important, said Llibert Argerich, global director of social
and content at eBay.
Stunt bots can work, but tread carefully. The launch
of the Messenger platform in early 2016 was marred by
the hasty launch of bots (such as Poncho the weather
cat) that didnt meet consumer expectations. Marketers
shouldnt get caught in the trap of thinking that a bot can
succeed as a marketing stunt.

US SOCIAL TRENDS FOR 2017

2016 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 8

STILL NO STANDARDS FOR DIGITAL

VIDEO ADVERTISING

Level of Confidence in ROI from Recent Digital Video

Ad Purchases According to US Ad Agency
Professionals, Nov 2015 & Aug 2016
% of respondents
Very confident
9.0%

Advertisers and agencies made their demand for

video advertising standards loud and clear in 2016,
but they will remain disappointed in 2017.
Lets start with the obvious: Creatively speaking, there is
no standard for video ads in social. On Snapchat, theyre
10-second vertical videos inserted between publisher
content or user stories. On Facebook and Instagram, they
are typically embedded in a feed (thought both are testing
full-screen ads and Facebook is experimenting with
mid-roll ads in live streams).
On Twitter, video ads can be embedded in the feed or
contained as pre-roll or mid-roll formats within live stream
programming. And then theres YouTube, which has stuck
to pre-roll or mid-roll ads for most of its video content.
Meanwhile, measurement is all over the map. While
most social platforms have aligned with one or more
third-party providers (Moat being the most common
one for video measurement), videos fragmented nature
makes comparisons all but impossible.
And despite calls from major ad agencies for video
standards, the social properties havent exactly offered
olive branches to advertisers.
The digital landscape continues to evolve extremely
quickly. And each platform is understandably focused
inward on improving its own product and increasing its
own revenue, said LeWinter.
Creating standards would improve the confidence of
agency and marketer executives in achieving ROI from
their video advertising efforts. Strata found in an August
2016 study of US agency professionals that only 10.0%
of respondents were very confident in the ROI they
achieved from recent digital video ad purchases, while
31.4% either did not think they received good value or
were unsure. Though those percentages were somewhat
higher than a similar survey conducted in November 2015,
there is clearly still work to be done.

US SOCIAL TRENDS FOR 2017

Unsure
36.0%

Very confident
10.0%

Unsure
24.3%
Fairly
confident
45.0%
Do not
think I'm
getting
good value
7.1%

Do not
think I'm
Nov 2015
getting
good value
10.0%

Fairly
confident
58.6%

Aug 2016

Source: Strata, Sep 14, 2016

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Advertisers and agencies that eMarketer spoke with

were both hopeful and resigned about this prediction.
[WestJet] would love to see more standardization of
video measurement across all of the various channels,
said Hounslow. But because all the various platforms
can decide how they want to measure video and what
tools to offer, we can continue to ask, but it doesnt
necessarily mean that its actually going to happen,
he said.
Unfortunately for advertisers, this is an issue that will stay
unsolved next year.

WHAT IT MEANS FOR MARKETERS

Third-party verification remains necessary. Making
sure that there are apples-to-apples comparative metrics
for verified video reporting is really critical, said GroupMs
Taylor. Its becoming more and more apparent that we
have to be diligent and not allow companies to grade their
own homework.
While 2017 may not be the year of video parity [across
social], it will be the year where advertisers and brands
continually push for third-party data to help them make
decisions and better evaluate video consumption in
social, said Mindshares Addesa.

2016 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 9

It may get worse before it gets better. Facebooks

admissions in September and November 2016 that it had
miscalculated metrics, including some related to video
views on its platform, didnt exactly instill confidence in
the minds of advertisers. Facebook said none of these
errors affected ad billing, but advertisers would be wise to
remain vigilant.
Until there is better comparability, use key
performance indicators (KPIs) to measure results on
individual platforms. As long as you are setting up
your KPIs ahead of timewhether its engagement or
watching the video or a particular call to action, such as
a direct salethen you can hold yourself accountable to
delivering against those metrics, said Marc Seguin, CMO
of popchips.

THE RACE IS ON TO MONETIZE

LIVE STREAMING
After the high-profile rollout of Facebook Live
and NFL games on Twitter this year, 2017 will be a
breakout year for live streaming. The major social and
digital video platforms as well as TV networks and
publishers will all stake their claim, leaving marketers
with a dizzying array of options to consider.
Its already clear that many, many companies want a piece
of live streaming. And while social platforms have been
early leaders in this trend, there is no reason to think they
will continue to have it to themselves in the future.
Esports platforms like Twitch have already proven that
live streamed video game competitions have huge
audience and revenue potential. TV news personality Al
Roker is backing Roker Media, which produces live video
content. And some radio providers have joined the trend
as well: New Yorks WABC Radio in October 2016 began
a test of streaming three of its shows live, with plans
to incorporate local advertising, and SiriusXM has been
developing a live video app with radio and TV personality
Howard Stern.
eMarketer expects TV networks to get more involved as
well, moving beyond their current experiments with the
social platforms.
Many platforms will pursue live video because there is
a big opportunity in terms of the emotional engagement
that an audience has around live video content, said
Ameet Ranadive, vice president of ad product at
Twitter. I agree that theres nothing that says social
will own it or even that Twitter will own it. But I do think
that its a very good fit [for Twitter] because of how
unique our experience is around being instant, open
and conversational.
As multiple players enter the space, marketers can expect
to see new and unusual partnerships being formed.
The traditional broadcast and cable networks are trying
to evolve their business models, while at the same time
the social platforms are trying to be bigger destinations
for that kind of content, said 360is LeWinter. Theres
a lot of risk-taking going on right now and a lot of
partnerships are being formed between the two sides as
a fail-safe, because they dont know what the future is
going to hold.

US SOCIAL TRENDS FOR 2017

2016 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 10

And as all of these partnerships develop, there will be

skirmishes over content ownership, user data and ad
revenue. Deals that Facebook struck with publishers to
create live video for its platform will start to expire in
March 2017, and there is no indication that the social giant
will continue to pay the publishers, as it has since March
2016. According to a June 2016 article in The Wall Street
Journal, Facebook agreed to pay upward of $50 million to
a list of 140 video publishers, including BuzzFeed and The
New York Times.
Faced with losing their future subsidies, publishers will
put up a good fight over who has the rights to their live
streams (including the ability to distribute them over more
than one platform), who owns the viewer data and how
to split ad revenue.
Amid all of this is the reality that live stream ad spending
remains quite small this early in the game.
In June 2016, Trusted Media Brands (previously The
Readers Digest Association) and Advertiser Perceptions
polled 305 US media decision-makers, including agency
and client-side marketers, about future investment in live
stream video advertising. According to the data, 17%
of agency and 19% of in-house marketers definitely
planned on allocating budget to live stream video ads in
H2 2016. The majority of respondents, however, were
less committed; 60% of in-house and 71% of agency
marketers said they might invest in the format.
Likelihood that US Agency vs. Marketing
Decision-Makers Will Invest* in Live Stream Video
Advertising, June 2016
% of respondents
Definitely won't
12%
Definitely
will
17%

Might
71%

Agency

Definitely Definitely
won't will
21% 19%

WHAT IT MEANS FOR MARKETERS

Lots of opportunity. All of that turbulence thats
going on is resulting in really, really fast evolution of
live streaming in the video content space, said 360is
LeWinter. Its a pretty exciting time for both media
companies and for advertisers. There are whole new
ways of consuming and distributing content, and then
advertising to consumers who are watching that content.
And lots of soul-searching about the future of
broadcasting. Just looking at the election coverage on
social media, a lot of people did live events on Periscope
or Facebook Live, or they [broadcast] images of what
theyre seeing and their experience while theyre going
off to vote, said John Yembrick, social media manager
at NASA. I think that real-time broadcasting is changing
the landscape, and we dont need to turn on the news
media the same way you used to to get updates about
whats happening in the world. And I think thats going
to continue.
A move toward pre-roll. Facebook has experimented
with mid-roll ads in live streams, but that may not be
the only ad format advertisers will see there. I think
what youre going to probably end up seeing is that [the
ad model] needs to be pre-roll, said GroupMs Taylor.
I think that theyre going to have a hard time fulfilling
delivery yields or impression yields with mid-roll ads in
user-generated live videos, because viewers may drop off
before the ad appears.
Third-party tools will make it easier. Telescope, which
has access to Facebooks API, helps live streams feel
alive by allowing publishers to insert content such as
user comments, or graphics or trending topics, said
DigitasLBis Sherman. When other platforms open
up their own APIs for live streaming, more third-party
companies will step in to help publishers distribute
their content and help marketers find venues for live
stream ads.

Might
60%

Marketing

Note: among those involved in digital advertising who are deciding or

investing in live stream video advertising; *in the next 6 months
Source: Trusted Media Brands (TMB) and Advertiser Perceptions, "The
Future of Digital Video," Aug 2, 2016
214161

US SOCIAL TRENDS FOR 2017

www.eMarketer.com

2016 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 11

THE NEXT HOT SOCIAL APPS

WILL FOSTER LIVE,
REAL-TIME EXPERIENCES
In 2016, Snapchat broke out as the new star on the
social advertising stage. Next year, eMarketer expects
some attention to turn toward a new generation of
apps that foster and promote real-time engagement
around key interests like music and video. Among
the apps likely to break out are Musical.ly, YouNow
and Snow.
Lip-syncing app Musical.ly has all the ingredients to
become a star in 2017: a rapidly growing teen audience,
a ready-made vehicle for pop stars to market themselves
and an environment where advertisers and influencers
can work together. The company is also getting into live
streaming with its sister app, Live.ly.
According to Billboard, Musical.ly has 133 million users
worldwide, up from 10 million a year ago. Its top user, a
teenager who goes by the name Baby Ariel, has
13.6 million fans and is starting to sign branding deals and
do product placements.
As of November 16, 2016, it ranked No. 5 in the US in
downloads among social apps in the Google Play store,
according to App Annie.
Live streaming app YouNow has built its appeal with
teens and young adults. It has also gained a foothold
with traditional TV, partnering with NBCs Americas
Got Talent to host live stream auditions for the show.
As of November 16, 2016, it ranked No. 51 in the US in
downloads among social applications in the Apple App
Store and No. 41 in the Google Play store, according to
App Annie.
Snow, a disappearing-message app that bears a strong
similarity to Snapchat, has already caught the eye of
Facebook, which tried to acquire the app this year.
But parent company Naver, the South Korea-based
firm behind messaging app Line, chose to go it alone.
Although Snow has yet to gain a large following in the US,
it has become quite popular in Asia and recently launched
a Chinese version.

US SOCIAL TRENDS FOR 2017

In Japan, Snow is more widely used than other

disappearing-message providers, including Snapchat
and Instagram (via its Stories feature). For example, an
October 2016 survey of social network users in Japan by
JustSystems found that 76.9% of female respondents
ages 20 to 29 used Snow, compared with 46.2% who
used Snapchat and 41.0% who used Instagram Stories.
Social Network Users in Japan Who Use Select Apps
with a Disappearing-Message Feature, by
Demographic, Oct 2016
% of respondents in each group
Snow

Snapchat

Instagram
Stories

Wickr

BeeTalk

Other

20-29

76.9%

46.2%

41.0%

20.5%

15.4%

0.0%

30-39

53.8%

46.2%

30.8%

23.1%

23.1%

7.7%

40-49

33.3%

33.3%

66.7%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

20-29

55.0%

63.3%

46.7%

43.3%

38.3%

0.0%

30-39

46.9%

50.0%

46.9%

40.6%

34.4%

0.0%

40-49

20.0%

50.0%

40.0%

30.0%

10.0%

10.0%

Total

56.1%

53.5%

43.9%

33.8%

28.0%

1.3%

Female

Male

Note: n=157 who are currently using social networking apps with
disappearing-message feature
Source: JustSystems, "State of Disappearing Messages SNS Usage Survey,"
Oct 19, 2016
219230

www.eMarketer.com

Though eMarketer doesnt expect any of these apps to

break out as big as Snapchat has in 2016, the trends they
representand the teen audience that most of them
appeal toare certainly worth paying attention to.

WHAT IT MEANS FOR MARKETERS

Real-time apps facilitate connections, not barriers.
You see Gen Z using these live social networks to
do homework together, experience cultural moments
together and create in real time, said DigitasLBis
Sherman. They are using these social spaces to enhance
personal connections, not create barriers.
There will be new opportunities to gain organic
reach. A smart paid-media strategy is going to
be really important on [established] platforms,
said Havas Newburn. But when it comes to new
platforms, I think theres always an opportunity to start
experimenting organically.

2016 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 12

Vet new apps closely. While much of the marketing

worlds attention will continue to focus on the much
bigger Facebook, Instagram, Snapchat and Twitter in 2017,
these up-and-coming apps will catch the attention of
brands looking to get in early on the next big thing. But
marketers should approach with caution.
Brands will need to be very strategic in their evaluation
of new platforms to determine if it is appropriate for
them to participate, said WestJets Hounslow. Not all
emerging apps will be a natural fit for every brand, and
each channel will require resources to be successful, so
companies will all have to be smart about which ones
they join.

LAST YEARS TRENDS: HERES

HOW EMARKETER DID
Of the eight predictions eMarketer made last year,
five were right, one was partially right and two were
wrong. Heres a recap.

WHAT EMARKETER GOT RIGHT

Influencer marketing will grow in importance as more
marketers turn to celebrities, Vine artists and others
for content and co-marketing opportunities.
We nailed this one, though in hindsight it wasnt hard to
see this coming. Influencer marketing is very important to
many marketers and has gotten a seat at the table when
it comes to marketing and advertising budgets. (That
said, we probably shouldnt have used Vine artists as an
example, given Twitters November 2016 announcement
that it would shut down the service.)
There wont be any resolution to the viewability
debate next year. Social properties and their
advertisers will be key adversaries in this
complicated issue.
Looking back, this was a bit wishy-washy, but we got it
right. Viewability is still an unsolved issue for marketers
and publishers (see prediction above).
Although marketers love the idea of using social
data for cross-device targeting, it will happen only
incrementally and wont be able to scale up quickly
in 2016.
We were right. This prediction mostly centered on
Facebooks attempts to market Atlas as an ad server.
Facebook now touts Atlas as a measurement tool and has
abandoned its positioning as an ad server.
Buy buttons are expected to remain a niche
opportunity. Consumers and retailers will need time
to get used to impulse buying in places like Facebook,
Twitter and Pinterest.
This is definitely still true. Twitter ended its buy button
test this year, and even Pinterest hasnt said much about
its own buy button. The platforms are continuing to
experiment, in hopes of eventually moving the needle.
eMarketer is still skeptical.

US SOCIAL TRENDS FOR 2017

2016 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 13

Live streaming will gain traction with marketers and

media companies, as they use this next generation
of real-time marketing to attract a younger and
savvier demographic.
We nailed this one as well. Facebook Live and Twitters
NFL streaming deals are creating new opportunities for
marketers and media, as well as average consumers, to
distribute in-the-moment content.

WHAT EMARKETER GOT PARTIALLY RIGHT

Messaging apps will be the next frontier for
marketing. Snapchats advertising business will pick
up steam, and eMarketer expects Facebook will begin
monetizing Messenger and WhatsApp in 2016.

Ad blocking will start to impact social media. While

properties like Facebook have been relatively immune
to it in the past, the technology behind blockers will
get smarter, and social media will need to be ready
to respond.
This didnt happen either. Consumers are definitely still
using ad blockers, but the impact on social has been
minimal. In fact, Facebook said in its Q3 2016 earnings
conference call in November 2016 that its ability to work
around desktop ad blockers contributed to an acceleration
in desktop revenue growth during the quarter.
For more on 2016 trends, see eMarketers November 2015
report, US Social Trends for 2016: eMarketer Predictions
for Video, Viewability, Buy Buttons, Messaging and More.

Snapchat has clearly taken off, and Facebook in November

2016 began testing a News Feed ad unit that links to the
advertisers Messenger bot. However, WhatsApp hasnt
started monetizing yet, although Facebook is laying the
groundwork by opening up more avenues for businesses
and consumers to communicate via the app.

WHAT EMARKETER GOT WRONG

Thanks to Facebooks rapid growth as a video
platform, 2016 will be the year when TV ad budgets
finally move more steadily toward social.
This didnt happen. Ad budgets are steadily moving to
social, but they are mostly coming from other digital
budgets, such as standard display, or from non-TV offline
media. That said, social platforms are definitely still
interested in playing a role in TV advertising. Facebook
in November 2016 said it was testing ways to use its
Facebook Audience Network to enable advertisers to
place ads via over-the-top devices such as Apple TV
and Roku.

US SOCIAL TRENDS FOR 2017

2016 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 14

EMARKETER INTERVIEWS

NASA Will Ramp Up Live Streaming in 2017

Jason Townsend

On Social, eBay Gives Product Recommendations

When, Where and How Users Want

Deputy Social Media Manager

NASA
Interview conducted on November 8, 2016

Llibert Argerich
Global Director, Social and Content

John Yembrick

eBay

Social Media Manager

Interview conducted on November 4, 2016

NASA
Interview conducted on November 8, 2016

Each Social Platform Should Be Used for Its Unique

Attributes, BuzzFeed Says
Kenneth Blom
Director, Brand Distribution
BuzzFeed
Interview conducted on November 11, 2016

WestJet on the Joys and Frustrations of Facebook,

Instagram and Snapchat

For Small Brands Like Narragansett Beer, Social

Media Can Still Be a Black Box
BJ Mansuetti
Community and Events Marketing Manager
Narragansett Beer
Interview conducted on November 10, 2016

Chris Bowler

Greg Hounslow

Senior Vice President,

Social and Content Marketing

Emerging Media Manager

Razorfish

WestJet

Interview conducted on November 9, 2016

Interview conducted on November 7, 2016

Emerging Marketing Tactics Are Lucrative, but Tough

to Measure
Leanne Johnson

Adam Hirsch
Global Executive Vice President
Edelman Digital
Interview conducted on November 11, 2016

Head of Social
GoPro

Jon Kaplan

Interview conducted on November 11, 2016

Head of Global Sales

Grubhub: 2017 Will Be a Year of Social

Media Experimentation

Pinterest
Interview conducted on November 8, 2016

Mallorie Rosenbluth

Orli LeWinter

Head of Social Media

Senior Vice President,

Strategy and Social Marketing

Grubhub
Interview conducted on November 3, 2016

360i
Interview conducted on November 10, 2016

CMO One-to-One: Like Other CPGs, popchips to

Grapple with Influencer Regulations in 2017
Marc Seguin
CMO
popchips

Ameet Ranadive
Vice President, Ad Product
Twitter
Interview conducted on November 8, 2016

Interview conducted on November 10, 2016

Jill Sherman
Senior Vice President, Social Strategy and
North American Social Lead
DigitasLBi
Interview conducted on November 10, 2016

US SOCIAL TRENDS FOR 2017

2016 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 15

Kieley Taylor
Partner and Head of Paid Social
GroupM Search & Social
Interview conducted on November 10, 2016

RELATED LINKS
Advertiser Perceptions
Chute

Joey-lyn Addesa

JustSystems

Senior Director, Strategic Planning and Social

Mobile Marketing Association

Mindshare North America

Interview conducted on October 31, 2016

Pingup
Strata

Michael Fitzsimmons
Vice President, Brand Marketing
WeWork
Interview conducted on November 9, 2016

Anna Newburn
Executive Strategy Director
Havas
Interview conducted on November 10, 2016

Vishal Shah
Director, Product Management
Instagram
Interview conducted on October 9, 2016

Amanda Todorovich
Director, Content Marketing
Cleveland Clinic
Interview conducted on November 2, 2016

Lia Zneimer

Survata
Thuzio
TrackMaven
Trusted Media Brands

EDITORIAL AND
PRODUCTION CONTRIBUTORS
Cliff Annicelli
Michael Balletti
Joanne DiCamillo
Dana Hill
Eden Kelley
Stephanie Meyer
Kris Oser
Heather Price
John Rambow
Allie Smith

Managing Editor, Reports

Copy Editor
Senior Production Artist
Director of Production
Chart Editor
Senior Production Artist
Deputy Editorial Director
Senior Copy Editor
Executive Editor, Reports
Director of Charts

Social Media Manager

WeWork
Interview conducted on November 9, 2016

RELATED EMARKETER REPORTS

Instagram Advertising 2017: Big Strides in Its First
Year, but Questions Remain
Cross-Platform Video Ad Buying: Gaining Ground, but
Fraught with Hurdles
WeChat for Marketers: Branding and
Ecommerce Strategies
Facebook Messenger: Strategies for Customer
Service, Ecommerce, Content and Advertising
Influencer Marketing for US Brands: The Platforms to
Watch, and the Best Ways to Work with Creators

US SOCIAL TRENDS FOR 2017

2016 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 16

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