Intelligence Squared U.S.

-1-

August9,2015

8/10/2015

RayPadgett|raypadgett@shorefire.com
JamesRainis|jrainis@shorefire.com
MarkSatlof|msatlof@shorefire.com
T:718.522.7171

IntelligenceSquaredU.S.

Containmentisnotenough:
ISISmustbedefeated

FortheMotion:MichleFlournoy,PhilipZelikow
AgainsttheMotion:AnneMarieSlaughter,DovZakheim
Moderator:JohnDonvan

AUDIENCERESULTS
Beforethedebate:
52%FOR
27%AGAINST
21%UNDECIDED

Afterthedebate:
32%FOR
59%AGAINST
9%UNDECIDED

StartTime:(18:02:38)

JohnDonvan:
AndIwanttobringouttothestagethegentlemanwhobroughtIntelligenceSquared
U.S.toheiscofounderwithhiswife,AlexandraMunroe.RobertRosenkranz
broughtIntelligenceSquaredafterseeingitinLondontotheU.S.backin2006.We've
recentlypassed100debates.Andthey'rebecauseofhisvision.So,let'spleasewelcome
BobRosenkranz.

[applause]

Thanks,Bob.AndwhatwenormallydoinNewYorkpriortothedebateiswejusttalk
foracoupleofminutes,inwhichI'llaskBobwhywe'redoingthisdebatenow,whythe
timing.SinceIthinkit'sinthiscaseit'sprettyobviouswhywe'redoingitnow,I'llask
youaslightlydifferentquestion.Sinceyou'vebeenherethisweekandparticipatingin
thesessions,ISIShascomeupalot.Foryou,whatdidyoupickupaboutthesituation
thatyoufeelinformsyouasyougointothisdebate?

RobertRosenkranz:
Well,Ithinkonethingthat,tome,wasveryinterestingI'vebeentothreeAspen
StrategyGroupsessions.
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18:03:37

Andinthisone,therewasfarmorehumility,I'dsay,thaninanyoftheothersthatI've
beento.Imean,peoplereallyfeellikethisisanareathatisnotwellunderstoodatall
andaphenomenonthatisnotwellunderstoodatall,andinaverycomplexcontext.
OneofthestrikingthingsformewasjusttheopeningeventwasalecturebyBernard
Haykel,aprofessoratPrinceton,whokindofgavesomethingofthehistoricand
intellectualrootsofISIS.AndIifIcould,I'djustmaybesummarizea

JohnDonvan:
Sure.

RobertRosenkranz:
coupleofhispoints.Firstofall,theterm"IslamicState"isexactlyright.ThisisIslamic.
Makenomistake.Theadministrationdoesn'tliketousethatterm,butthisisrootedin
Islam.Andit'srootedinaveryhighlytechnical,veryliteralistreadingoftheQur'an.

18:04:42

Andit'sanattempttoreallygobacktothemosttriumphantdaysoftheMuslimfaith,
whichisthe7thto9thcenturies,rightafterthefoundingbytheProphet.Sotheyare
veryfundamentalist.Theyareveryseriousaboutthereligion.Andthereareacoupleof
majortenets.OneisSharialaw.Twoistheuseofarmedconflictasawayofcreatinga
fullexpressionofaMuslimsociety.Thethirdisanotionofacaliphate,i.e.,astatewhich
iswhereallofthereligiouspowerandallofthepoliticalpowerisconcentratedinone
individual.AndISissuchastate.

18:05:32

Anditpartofitsappealtopeopleandtherecruitsthatitgetsisbecauseofthisalmost
utopiansenseoftryingtorestorethepastgloriesofIslam,which,accordingtothem,
havebeenlostthroughcenturiesofWesterndomination,corruptgovernment,anda
deviationfromtheausterity,andthepurity,andthedisciplineoftheearlyreligion.And
thathasalotofappealtopeople.So

JohnDonvan:
AndIfinditinteresting.Yousaythatinthepanels,youfoundthatthepeoplewethink
ofasexpertswereactuallyratherhumbleabouttheirgraspofthesituation.

RobertRosenkranz:
Yeah.Imean,Ithinkthiscameoutofaculturethatpeoplearenotfamiliarwith.The
tacticstookpeoplebysurprise,thefastthespeedinwhichtheyputtogethera

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powerfulmilitarymachinetookpeoplebysurprise.Thecomplexityinwhichwe're
operating,withSaudiArabia,withTurkey,withIran,withthecollapseofSyria.

18:06:43

Imean,there'sjustsomanymovingpiecesthatvary

JohnDonvan:
Wejustdon'twantdebaterstobetoohumblewhentheygetonthestageandtryto
defeateachother.

RobertRosenkranz:
Idon'tthinkthat'sgoingtobeaproblem.

[laughter]

JohnDonvan:
Allright.Withthat,let'sthankBobRosenkranzagainandwelcomeourdebaterstothe
stage.

[applause]

Ijustwantedtoaskyou,ifyou'renotTweeting,we'dlovetohaveyouTweet.But
otherwisewe'dappreciateitifyoucouldshutdownyourphones.Iforgot,soI'mdoing
minenow,justbecausewehavesomanysensitivemicsintheroomthattoomany
signalswillwreakhavocwithourmicrophones.

18:07:37

Butwe'regoingtonowofficiallybeginourlivestream.Ibelievewe'reupandwe're
goingtobeginthetapingforthepodcastandtheandfortheradioshow.SoIjust
wanttoaskyouspontaneouslytogiveusaroundofapplause.Thankyou.

[applause]

ISISisnotlosingandthatisthehardtruth.ThisIslamistmovementthatisstunningand
revoltingtheworldbyenslavingmenandwomenandchildrenandcuttingofftheheads
ofhostageswhilegainingmorefollowersallthetime,hasshockedU.S.leaderswiththe
speedofitsconquestoflargeportionsofSyriaandIraq.Andyes,theU.S.hasbeen
bombingfromtheairsince2014,butthatisafarcryfromgoingallinagainst
ISIS.Rather,toborrowatermfromtheColdWar,theU.S.strategycomescloserto
somethingthatwasknownascontainment,theattempttoheminanenemytoprevent
itspowerandinfluencefromgrowinginthehopethatsomedayitwillcollapsefrom
within.
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18:08:45

AndhowmuchsensedoesthatstrategymakeinthecaseofISIS?Well,thatsoundslike
themakingsofadebate,solet'shaveit.Yesornotothisstatement.Containmentis
NotEnough:ISISMustBeDefeated.AdebatefromIntelligenceSquaredU.S.I'mJohn
Donvan.WeareinAspen,Colorado,inpartnershipwiththeAspenStrategyGroup.We
havefoursuperblyqualifieddebatersonthestagewhowillargueforandagainstthis
motion:ContainmentisNotEnough:ISISMustBeDefeated.Asalways,ourdebateswill
gointhreeroundsandthenourliveaudiencehereinAspenwillvotetochoosethe
winnerandonlyonesidewillwin.Ourmotionagain:ContainmentisNotEnough:ISIS
MustBeDefeated.Let'smeettheteamarguingforthemotion.Please,ladiesand
gentlemen,welcomeMichleFlournoy.

[applause]

AndMichle,you'recofounderandCEOoftheCenterforaNewAmericanSecurity.

18:09:44

YouservedintheDepartmentofDefenseduringtheClintonadministrationandthenin
theObamaadministrationasundersecretaryofdefenseforpolicy.Recentlythe
economistwassayingthatapresidentHillaryClintonwouldhaveagreatfirsthundred
daysinpartbecauseyournominationasdefensesecretarywouldprobablygothrough
withoutmuchopposition.But,yourecentlycoauthoredanopedthatwascriticalofthe
Obamaadministration'seffortstofightISISandI'mwonderingdoyouthinktheObama
administrationhasheardyou?

MichleFlournoy:
Well,Icertainlyhopeso,buttobefair,youknow,theadministrationhasalotonits
platerightnow.ThislittlethingcalledtheIrandeal,gettingthatthroughCongress,
concludinganhistorictradedealinAsia,butI'mconfidentthatoncethosetwothings
aretakencareofthiswillmovetothetopofthepresident'snightstandreadingpile.

JohnDonvan:
Andkeephimupallnight.

MichleFlournoy:
Yes.

JohnDonvan:
Thankyouverymuch,MichleFlournoy.

[applause]
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Canyoutellus,Michle,whoisyourpartner?

18:10:37

MichleFlournoy:
MypartneristhebrilliantPhilipZelikow.

JohnDonvan:
PhilipZelikow,ladiesandgentlemen.

[applause]

And,Philip,youarealsoarguingforthemotionthatContainmentisNotEnough:ISIS
MustBeDefeated.You'reaprofessorofhistoryattheUniversityofVirginiaandyou
haveservedasacounselortotheStateDepartmentandasDirectorofthe9/11
Commission.You'vealsoservedonthepresident'sintelligenceadvisoryboardforboth
PresidentsBushandObama,whichmightstrikesomelistenersasodd,becausewe
reallywanttoknow,isitcommonforsomebodytoadvisepresidentsofdifferent
parties?

PhillipZelikow:
I'mafraid,John,it'snotcommonenough,whichisashame,becauseIthinkpresidents
needallthehelpthattheycanget.

JohnDonvan:
Well,Ithinkalotofpeopleinthisroomhavehelpedsomeofthemout,actually,along
theway,sothey'llbelisteningclosely.Ladiesandgentlemen,theteamarguingforthe
motionthatContainmentisNotEnough:ISISMustBeDefeated.

[applause]

Andnowlet'smeettheteamarguingagainstthemotion.Please,ladiesandgentlemen,
welcomeAnneMarieSlaughter.

[applause]

AnneMarie,youarepresidentandCEOofthethinktankNewAmericaandprofessor
emeritaofpoliticsandinternationalaffairsatPrinceton.

18:11:45

YouarethefirstwomantoholdthepositionofdirectorofpolicyplanningfortheU.S.
StateDepartment.You'vealsoservedasdeanofPrinceton'sWoodrowWilsonSchoolof
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PublicandInternationalAffairsandwe'recuriouswhetheryouraffiliationwiththe
schoolnamedforWoodrowWilsongivesusahinttoyourbrandofstatecraft.

AnneMarieSlaughter:
Well,itdoes,butitiscoincidentalandthatevenbeforeIwasdeanI'vealwaysstoodfor
avaluesbasedforeignpolicyonthegroundsthatwhentheUnitedStatesactsas
consistentlyaspossiblewithourvalues,itadvancesournationalinterestandit
augmentsourpower.

JohnDonvan:
WhichI'msurewillinformyourargumentstoday.Andpleasetelluswhoisyour
partner.

AnneMarieSlaughter:
Theforeignpolicyanalystextraordinaire,DovZakheim.

[laughter]

JohnDonvan:
Ladiesandgentlemen,theunforgettableDovZakheim.

[applause]

Dov
DovZakheim:
Itshowsyouhowwellweprepared.

18:12:38

[laughter]

JohnDonvan:
YouarealsoarguingagainstthemotionthatContainmentisNotEnough:ISISMustBe
Defeated.

DovZakheim:
Notanymore.

[laughter]

JohnDonvan:
Inourthreeagainstonedebatetonight,

[laughter]
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you'resenioradvisorattheCenterforStrategicandInternationalStudiesandasenior
fellowatCNNCNAcorporation.IsaidCNN,butImeantCNACorporation.You've
servedtheDepartmentofDefenseindifferentcapacities.Youwereitscoordinatorfor
civilianprogramsinAfghanistan.Youwerethechieffinancialofficerandanunder
secretaryofdefense.YouarealsoaVulcan,whichisnotintheStarTreksense.Canyou
explainwhataVulcanis?

DovZakheim:
Yeah,thereweresevenofus,notincludingMr.Spock,whoadvisedGeorgeW.Bush
whenhewasrunningforpresident.Ofcourse,somepeoplewouldsayitwould'vehelp
ifSpockadvisedhim,butthegroupwasactuallysetupbyCondiRice,whoisnostranger
toAspen,anditwasnamedafterthestatueoftheGodVulcaninBirmingham.

18:13:41

Andsincewehadnosayinit,webecameVulcans.

JohnDonvan:
It'sbetterthanaStarTrekstory,actually.Thankyouverymuch,DovZakheim.And
welcometotheteamarguingagainstthemotion.

[applause]

Now,thisisadebate.It'sacontest.It'sacontestofideasandlogicandpersuasion,
maybealittlewitandhumor,butatbottomthedebatersherearetryingtogetourlive
audiencehereinAspentovotewiththem.Bythetimethedebatehasendedthis
audiencewillhavebeenaskedtovotetwotimes,oncebeforetheargumentsandonce
againafterthearguments,andtheteamwhosenumbershavemovedthemostin
percentagepointtermsbetweenthetwovoteswillbedeclaredourwinner.Solet's
haveourpreliminaryvote.Ifyougotothosekeypadsatyourseat,justpayattentionto
keysnumberone,two,andthree.Theothersarenotlive.Itworkslikethis.Ifyou're
forthemotionandI'mgoingtostateit,andlistencarefully,becausethere'sanegative
init,butyoureallywanttobelisteningprobablytothebackendofit.

18:14:37

ContainmentisNotEnough:ISISMustBeDefeated.Ifyouagreewiththatpushnumber
one.Ifyoudisagreepushnumbertwo.Ifyou'reundecidedpushnumberthree.And
we'llgivethatabout15secondsandthenlockitout.Attheendofthedebatewe'lldo
thesamethingagainandwegettheresultsinabout45secondstoaminute.All
right.Let'sbegin.Let'smoveontoroundone.Ontoroundone,openingstatements
fromeachdebaterinturn,uninterrupted.Theywillbesixminuteseach.Speakingfirst
forthemotionContainmentisNotEnough:ISISMustBeDefeated,Michle
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Flournoy.SheiscofounderandCEOoftheCenterforaNewAmericanSecurityand
formerundersecretaryofdefenseforpolicy.Ladiesandgentlemen,MichleFlournoy.

[applause]

MichleFlournoy:
SoI'marguingforthepropositionthatISISmustbedefeated.

18:15:37

ISISismorethanaterroristorganization.Itisaprotostate,anideologicalmovement
thatiscommittedtoundertakeJihadagainstanyonewhorejectsitsabhorrent
ideology.Itsultimateaimistoestablishaterritorialcaliphatethatstretchesacrossthe
Muslimworld.ISISisbrutalintheextreme.Ithasbeheadedinnocentcivilians.Ithas
burnedacapturedJordanianpilotaliveinacage.Itrapeswomenandgirlsandsells
themintosexualslavery.ItcrucifiesChristians.ItdesecratesanddestroysHolysites
andantiquities.OverthelastyearISIShasestablishedaverysubstantialsafehavenin
IraqandSyria,andithasrecruitedmorethan22,000foreignfightersfrommorethan
100countries.Thescaleandscopeofthismobilizationisunprecedented.

18:16:38

ThousandsofthesefightershaveWesternpassportsthatwouldallowthemtotravel
backtoEuropeandtotheUnitedStateswithoutavisa.ISISitsgeographicambitions
arenotlimitedtotheMiddleEast.Thisisaglobalizingmovement.InthelastyearISIS
hassoughttoestablishfootprintsinplacesfromLibyatoAfghanistan,Nigeria,the
Caucasus,evenSoutheastAsia.Holdingterritoryiscriticaltoitsmomentumandits
legitimacy.Ithasalsoestablishedaglobalpresenceontheinternetusingonlinemeans
todisseminateitspropaganda,recruitandradicalizefollowers,inspirelonewolf
attacks.Again,thescaleiseyewatering.90,000socialmediamessageseachday.
90,000aday.Insomeways,ISIScouldbecomemoredangerousthanAlQaeda.Al
Qaedausedtoassertverystrictcontroloverwhobecameanaffiliate.

18:17:40

ISISsays,"Letathousandflowersbloom.Ifwecaninspireindividualstoconductattacks
aroundtheworld,that'sgreat.Infact,10ofthe11attacksconductedintheWestsince
Mayof2014havebeenbylonewolves.ISIShasalsoconductedattacksnotonlyinthe
MiddleEast,butinCanada,Australia,France,Denmark,andyes,hereintheUnited
States.Inall50statestoday,thereareactiveinvestigationsorarrestsofISIS.Ifever
therewasaterroristgroupthatwemustdefeat,itisISIS.Now,defeatingISISwill
requireanintensivemoreintensiveandfullyresourcedcampaignonthepartofthe
UnitedStatesandourinternationalpartners.Weneedtointensifyourdiplomacyand
ourmilitarysupporttoSunniandotherpartnerssothattheycanbeempoweredto
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defeatISISontheground.Politically,thatmeansweneedintensifieddiplomacytopress
theShi'agovernmentinBaghdad,toaddressSunnigrievances,todevolvemore
authoritiesandresourcestotheprovinces,tomovetowardsamorefederalandjust
Iraq.

18:18:54

InSyria,weneedamorerobustdiplomaticefforttosettheconditionsforwhatshould
eventuallybecomeanegotiatedsettlementthatremovesAssadfrompower.Weneed
increasedinternationalengagementtotrytokeepthecivilwarinSyriafrom
destabilizingneighboringstates,likeJordan,andLebanon,andTurkey.Militarily,inIraq
weneedtoprovidemoresupport,trainers,combatadvisers,equipment,closeair
support,tolocalpartnersonthegroundwhocantakeonISISandtakebackterritory.To
beclear,IamnotwearenotarguingforalargescaleU.S.militaryinvasionofIraq.We
arenotcallingforarepeatoftheIraqWar.

18:19:40

Wearecallingforintensifiedsupporttopartners.InSyriaweneedtoshiftour
emphasistoproducingmoresupporttosomeofthegroupsthatarealreadyhaving
successontheground,liketheSouthernFrontandtheSyrianFreeArmy.Wealsoneed
torefashionourTrainandEquipprogramtotrytogettowardsthegoalofamoreviable
alternativetoISISinapostAssadSyria.Thinkingglobally,wealsoneedtocombatISIS
usingthefullrangeoftoolsthatwe'vedevelopedforcounterterrorism,disruptingtheir
financing,targetingtheirleadership,buildingtheircapacityofpartnersinother
countriestotrytokeepISISfrommovingin.Weneedtoworkwithprivatesectorand
NGOpartnerstocombatthemonline.Andweneedtoaddresssomemorefundamental
conditionsthatcreatefertilesoilforISIS,suchaspoorgovernanceandcommunity
grievance.

18:20:39

Thiswillnotbewithoutrisk.ButIwouldargue,theriskofinactionareevengreater.The
otherteamwillarguethatcontainmentisabetteroption.Iwilltellyouthat
containmentwon'twork.ContainmentmeansallowingISIStoholdontosanctuary.It
meansISISwillbeabletocontinuetoplanattacks,recruitfollowers,inspirelonewolves.
ContainmentwouldbearecipeforendlessterroristattacksintheWestandinstabilityin
theMiddleEast.Isthatafuturewereallywant?It'snotafutureIwantmychildrento
livein.Ifthere'sanythingweshouldhavelearnedfrom9/11,itisthatwemustnotallow
aterroristorganizationlikethistohavesanctuaryintheheartoftheMiddleEastor
elsewhere.Nowisthetimetodomore,toactwithourpartners,todefeatISIS.Thank
you.

JohnDonvan:
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Thankyou,MichleFlournoy.

[applause]

Andthemotionis:ContainmentisNotEnough:ISISMustBeDefeated.

18:21:40

Andournextdebaterwillbespeakingagainstthatmotion,AnneMarieSlaughter.Sheis
presidentandCEOofNewAmericaandformerdirectorofpolicyplanningfortheU.S.
DepartmentofState.Ladiesandgentlemen,AnneMarieSlaughter.

[applause]

AnneMarieSlaughter:
So,IwanttoseetheendofISISasmuchasanyonedoes.Noonecanwatchthehorrible
thingstheydoandnotthinkthatthisisaterrible,terriblescourgeandthreat.Andwe
havetoendit.Thequestiononthetableis,"Whatisthebeststrategytoachievethat
goalfortheUnitedStates?"That'swhatwe'redebating.Whatisthebeststrategyfor
us?Now,ouropponentsarealreadyfudgingthatquestion.Becausethedebatehereis,
doyouusemilitaryforcetodrivethemoutoftheterritorytheyholdordoyoucontain
themwheretheyare?

18:22:40

Andso,whatyou'rehearingistheycan'thavesanctuary.MichleFlournoysaidvery
clearlytheycannothaveasanctuary.Okay?Whattheyhavetoconvinceyouofisthey
haveastrategyforhowtheUnitedStatescandenythemcandenyISISthat
strategy.So,let'sjustbeveryclearaboutwhat'sonthetablehere.Theyhaveto
convinceyoutheyhaveastrategyfortheUnitedStatestodriveISISoutofthat
sanctuary,andsomehowmagically,withoutbootsontheground.ButI'llleavethatto
them.So,theyhavetotellyouwhatdefeatisandhowtheU.S.canachieveit.Here's
whatwemeanbycontainment.WemeanstoppingISISwhereitis.Wemeancritically
breakingtheirnarrativeofvictory.WeallheardfromProfessorHaykel,whoBob
Rosenkranzmentioned.Hesaid,"Look,whatisessentialisthateverytimeISISwins,
theyconvincetheirsupportersGodisontheirside."

18:23:42

Allright.Itisakindofendofdays,millenarian"Thisisit.We'regoingtorestorethe
caliphate.We'regoingtospreaditacrosstheworld.Andsee,Godisonoursidebecause
wehavejusttakenanothercity."So,containmentsaysyoubreakthat.Youdonotlet
themexpandtheirterritoryandyoudoeverythingyoucantostoptheflowofrecruits.
Soyoustopthemwheretheyare.So,that'scontainment.It'snotadonothingstrategy.
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Infact,it'sdoingeverythingpossible,andcertainly,diplomaticallyeverythingpossible.
Digitallyeverythingpossible.Inandmilitarily,stoppingthemfromexpandingwhere
theyare.ItmayalsomeansupportingouralliesandfriendsintheMiddleEasttothe
extenttheytaketheleadinwantingtopushISISback.Sothat'scontainment.We're
goingtostopthemwheretheyare.

18:24:36

We'regoingtolettheirinternalcontradictionsshowthemselves.We'regoingtolet
ultimately,aswehavedonebefore,fortheoldermembersofthisaudiencewe're
goingtolettheideologycrumbleitself.Thealternativeisrollback.Right?The
alternative,asIsaid,isgoinginthereandactuallypushingthemoutofthatterritory.
AndI'mgoingtoleaveittomypartner,DovZakheim

[laughter]

thebrilliantDovZakheim.He'sgoingtotalkaboutwhythat'ssohardmilitarily.But
whatIwanttodoistalkaboutwhythatwon'twork,whyrollbackwon'twork
politically.Andthefirstthingtosayiswe'veseenthismoviebefore.GeneralPetraeus
wasonthestagetwodaysago,talkingabouthowhehadpushedAlQaedainIraqoutof
Mosul.AlQaedainIraqisnotthere,butguesswho'sbackinMosul?ISISisthere.Thisis
Round2.Wehavedonethismilitarilybefore.Thatdidn'twork.Andhere'swhy,because
itisn'tjustanidea.

18:25:40

Itisnotjustamilitaryquestion.ISISisanideology.ProfessorHaykelsaidonthesame
stagethat,ofcourse,defeatisdesirable.Buthowdoyoudefeatasetofideas?So,the
waywe'vedonethisbefore,whenwewereupagainstanideologyformostofmylife,
thatideologywasCommunism.Containmentwasthemostsuccessfulstrategythe
UnitedStateshaseverpursued.Anditdidn'tmeannotdoinganything.Andwehadto
useourmilitary.Andweusedourdiplomatically.ButwecontainedtheSovietUnion
andultimately,weletitsinternalcontradictionsdestroyit.So,it'shappenedbefore.
Andit'llcomeagain.Equallyormoretroublingisthatifweinjectourselves,we
confirmtheirnarrative.Right?ISIS'snarrativeisthattheyarefightingthecrusaders
that'sustheZioniststhat'stheIsraelisandtheShiitesandtheSufis.

18:26:39

So,theminuteweputourselvesinthere,weareconfirmingtothemandeveryonethey
wanttorecruitthatthisisindeedthemillennialbattlebetweenthecrusadersandthe
truedefendersofIslam.Wedon'twanttodothat.Thelastreasonthatweneedto
pursueacontainmentstrategyisthisisaverylonggame.So,GeneralPetraeussaidtwo
daysagoandhewasquotingGeneralOdiernothatthiswasafightatleastofa
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decade,ifnotadecadeortwodecades.So,10to20years.That'swhatareourgenerals
aretellingusnow.Thatactually,Ithink,couldbeontheshortside.So,rememberyour
historyandrememberstoriesofmonotheisticfaithinwhichclericshadbothpolitical
andreligiouspowerandweredeeply,deeplycorruptandspawnedarevoltthatsaidyou
hadtopurifythechurchandultimatelythatwastheonlywaytoreclaimthetrue
religion.

18:27:42

Obviouslythat'stheReformation.Itwasjustdecades,itwascenturies.Thisisadeeply
internalMuslimfight.ItisafightforthesoulofIslam.Itisnotourfight.Itisthe
Muslim'sfight.Intheendwehavetoprotectourselves.Wehavetocontainit,butwe
cannotwinit.

JohnDonvan:
Thankyou,AnneMarieSlaughter.Yourtimeisup.

AnneMarieSlaughter:
Thankyou.

[applause]

JohnDonvan:
Andareminderofwhat'sgoingon.Wearehalfwaythroughtheopeningroundofthis
IntelligenceSquaredU.S.debate.I'mJonDonvan.Wehavefourdebaters,twoteams
oftwoarguingitoutoverthismotion:ContainmentisNotEnough:ISISMustBe
Defeated.You'veheardthefirsttwoopeningstatementsandnowontothe
third.DebatingforthemotionContainmentisNotEnough:ISISMustBeDefeated,
PhilipZelikow.HeistheWhiteBurkettMillerProfessorofhistoryattheUniversityof
VirginiaandservedastheDirectorofthe9/11Commission.Ladiesandgentlemen,
PhilipZelikow.

18:28:36

[applause]

PhillipZelikow:
Toughissue,butIwanttostartwhereAnneMarieSlaughterleftoff.Shesaidinjecting
theUnitedStatesintothisconflictconfirmstheirnarrative.Asifwe'renotinjected
already?Asifwe'renotconductingairstrikesagainstthemeverysingleday?Asif
we'renot,astheDeputySecretaryofStatehassaid,"We'vealreadykilled10,000of
theirmembers,butithasnotdeclined."Inotherwords,we'realreadyinjected.We're
alreadyfighting,we'rejustnotbeatingthem.Thatconfirmstheirnarrative.That
confirmstheirnarrativeofvictory.Theircrusadersattackuseveryday.That'stheway
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theyputit.Andherewearecontrolling20cities,rulingmillionsofpeople,and
enslavingmore.Let'stalkaboutwhatfailurelookslike.Sure,failurelookslikehundreds
orthousandsofAmericansdeadafteranattackthatcouldcomenextmonth,nextyear,
ortheyearafterthat.

18:29:41

The9/11attackthatIstudiedgestatedforthreeyearsbeforetheylaidwasteto
southernManhattan.ThepeoplewhocarriedoutthatattackmigratedfromGermany
toAfghanistannearlytwoyearsbeforetheattack.Theywentthere,bytheway,
thinkingthattheyweregoingtogofightRussiansinChechnya,buttheleadershipfound
otherusesforthem.SofailurelookslikehundredsorthousandsofAmericansdead
withmoreviolenceinEurope,butfailurealsolookslikethedescentoftheMiddleEast
intothefullwarofextremesinwhichitsallagainstall,inwhichitsShiaextremists
supportedbyIranandSunniextremistsforwhomISISistheterrifyingsortofpurityand
LebanoncrumplesandJordancrumplesandTurkeybeginstocrumple,allalreadyawash
withmillionsofdisplacedpeople.

18:30:36

Allarealreadyfailingtocope.Theirsocietiesalreadysaggingundertheweightofthe
burdens.SaudiArabiadestabilizedasmoreandmoreSunnisfindthatthat'sreallythe
extremeversionoftheirownideologythattheywanttofollow.Don'tyouthinkthat
that'sthepointthattheU.S.hastoreinvadetheMiddleEast?That'sfailure.U.S.
reinvasionoftheMiddleEastisfailure.That'sthefailureMichleFlournoyandIare
against.That'swhyyouneedtoadoptthisresolutionanddefeatISISsothatwedont
havetoreinvadetheMiddleEast.Whatthendoessuccesslooklike?Successlookslike
defeatingtheirmessage.What'stheirmessage?It'samessageaboutpower.We
empowertheweakSunniMuslimsandweempowerthemthroughtheexclusivedivine
missiontheyholdandtheterrifyingswordtheywieldintheterritorywerule,ruling
despitethecrusader'sattacksagainstus.Sowhatdoessuccesslooklike?It'sSunni
Muslimsliberatingtheirownlands.

18:31:43

It'sSunniMuslimsrecoveringselfdetermination.Sowhat'sthestrategytodothat?It's
apoliticalstrategyfirstandforemost,becausethepublicdebateinAmericaismostly
aboutshouldwedomoremilitarily.That'swrong.MichleandIbothbelieve,knowthe
strategyleadspoliticallyanditneedstobeastrategythatappealstoSunniMuslims,
becausethey'retheoneswewanttodomostofthefightingtokeepAmericansfrom
havingtodomostofthefightinglateron.Whywilltheyfight?Theywillfighttofree
themselves,tofreethemselvesfromtheAssadtyrannyinSyriawherewealsomustjoin
thatfightandendtheSyrianCivilWar,whichisdestroyingtheregionandbringingit
closetothebrinkofapocalypse.That'sthekindofmessagethatappealstoTurkeyand
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bringstheminonoursideandunitsSaudiArabiaandtheSunnisofLebanonandthe
millionsofSyriansinrefugeecampswhowanttoreturntotheirhomes.

18:32:45

Because,yousee,ISISisnothomegrown.ISISareforeigners.TheISISrulersinSyriaare
ledbyIraqisandveteransofSaddamHussein'sgestapoandtheyrecruitUzbeksand
ChechenstoruntheirshocktroopsinMosul.ManyoftheIraqirecruitsthatthey
enslaveintotheirservicedon'tevenunderstandthecommandlanguagethatthey're
hearingontheradio.SothepoliticalstrategyisaselfdeterminationofSunni
Muslims.Andthemilitarystrategy,adviseandsupportsotheycandothejob,butit'sa
toughjob.Theyhavetoretakecities.Todothatkindofurbanwarfarerequiresjustthe
kindofassetsthatonlytheUnitedStateshas.

18:33:31

Thinkabouturbancombatandwhatyouneed,armoredvehiclesthataren'tgoingtobe
blownupbyanIEDaseasily,jammerstodiffusetheIEDs,sniperswhocanprovideover
watch,communicationsothatyouknowwhat'sgoingonintheblocktwoblocksaway
fromyou,medivaccapabilitiesthatgiveyoutheconfidenceyourwoundedcanbe
treatedandhelicoptersandfiresthatcanbebroughttobearonthetargetsyouseein
frontofyou.ThoseareassetsonlytheUnitedStatescanprovide,whichgivesthemthe
confidenceandthesensethatwe'reinthiswiththemthatallowsyoutobuilda
coalitionfoundedonSunniMuslimsdoingthejobtoliberatetheirownlands,because
containmentdoesn'tkeeptheU.S.out.ItguaranteestheU.S.islikelytocome
in.AnneMariesaiditatlast.Letideologycrumbleitself.DidtheKhmerRouge
crumbleitself?No,theVietnamesehadtoinvadeCambodia.DidtheTalibancrumble
itself?DidalQaedainPakistancrumbleitself?HastheNorthKoreantyrannycrumbled
itself?

18:34:38

No.Youhavetobeatterrorwithsomethingelseandinthiscasethesomethingelseis
defeatingterrorwhereithastakenrootinISIS.Supporttheresolution.

JohnDonvan:
Thankyou.Thankyou,PhilipZelikow.

[applause]

AndthemotionisContainmentisNotEnough:ISISMustBeDefeated.Andhereto
makehisopeningstatementagainstthemotionandourfinalspeakerintheopening
round,DovZakheim.HeistheSeniorAdvisorattheCenterforStrategicand

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InternationalStudiesandformerundersecretaryofdefense.Ladiesandgentlemen,
DovZakheim.

[applause]

DovZakheim:
ThanksverymuchandIreallywanttothankPhil,becausehejustmademy
argument.WehavearmedISIS.Whatdoyouthinkthey'reusing?Americanpersonnel
carriers.Americantanks.Americanammunition.Why?Becausewe'vedonesucha
fantasticjobtrainingtheIraqisandwe'vebeendoingitforoveradecade,andwe've
doneanequallygoodjobtrainingtheAfghans.

18:35:42

That'swhythey'redoingsowell.Andinfact,ifyoulookatwhowe'vetrainedinSyria,
wehavea$500millionprogramthatthusfarhasspatout60fighters,60.That'sless
thanthatsideoftheroom.Ofwhich,andIhopethisdoesn'thappentoanyofyouall,a
wholebunchhavealreadybeencaptured.Solet'sstepbackandlookatwhatitreally
takestobeatthesefolksandtodosomethingotherthantocontainthemthewaymy
brilliantcolleague,AnneMarieSlaughter

[laughter]

laidoutforyou.Youknow,thisisn'tthefirstoutburstofIslamicextremism.For
instance,inthe12thCenturytherewasafanaticalgroupthatactuallyhadthesame
ideologyastheseguyscalledtheAlmohads.

18:36:44

Andhowweretheydefeated?BymassiveforcesofChristiantroopscomingdownfrom
northernSpain.Inthe18thCentury,theoriginalWahhabiswhohadmadeadealwith
thefirst[unintelligible],basicallysamekindofideology.TheyweredefeatedbyTurkish
forces,andthenwehadthesamesortofthingagaininthelate19thCenturywhenLord
Kitchener,thenGeneralKitchener,amassedahugeforcetodefeattheMahdiinSudan.
What'sthecommondenominator?Lotsoftroops.Notafewthousand.Notabunchof
spotters,becauseoh,bytheway,whentheIsraeliscouldn'tbeatHezbollahin2006,
theydidn'thaveaproblemwithspotters.

18:37:40

AndwhenwetriedtobombVietnamtotheStoneAgeinthe1960s,withRolling
Thunder,wedidn'thaveaproblemwithspotters.Spottersaren'ttheissue.Theissueis,
canyouandareyouwillingtosendinhundredsofthousandsoftroops?Doyouthink
thiscountrywantstodothat?Doyouthinkweevenwanttospendthemoneytodo
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that?We'relivingunderastrangethingcalledasequester.Somebodywasaskedon
television,"What'sasequester?"Andheanswered,"It'sthecapitalofPortugal."

[laughter]

Peopledon'tevenknowwhatasequesteris.Butwhatit'sdoneislimitourspending.
AndyoutalktoSecretaryofDefenseCarterandherightlysayshe'sbeingconstrainedall
overtheplace.Thepresidentsaysit.So,wherearewegoingtofindthemoneyevenif
wehadthewill,whichIdon'tthinkwehavetogoandfundallthesetroops,orevento
dowhatPhilipsays.

18:38:41

Allthethingsyouwanttogivethesefolkslet'sassumetheydon'tfallintoISIS'shands.
Wherearewegoingtofindthemoneyforit?Dowehavethewill?Dowehavethe
money?Dowehavethestayingpowerforthatkindofthing?Theonlywayyou'regoing
tostoptheseguysisif,indeed,theyrotfromwithin.That'stheonlyalternativeifyou're
notgoingtosendhundredsofthousandsoftroopsin.Andtogetthemtorotfrom
within,youhavetocontainthem.You'vegottokeepthemcoopedup.Andthereare
waystodothat.Butwe'renoteveninonemindastohowtorightnow.Yes,welove
theKurds,butwedon'tarmthem.Yes,wewanttoworkwiththeTurks,exceptthe
Turkshaveadifferentagenda.TheywanttobombtheKurds,whowelike.

[laughter]

Imean,youneedascorecardtofigureoutwhoexactlyisonyourside.

18:39:38

Howdoyoubeatthesepeoplethatway?Thebottomlineisunlesswehavea
coherentmajormilitarystrategy,therealalternativewhenyouparseoutallthestuff
aboutwhatwecandorightnow,therealalternativeistokeepthemcoopedup,toarm
ourfriends,tofigureouthowtotrainthosewhowillfight.Andyes,theSunnismight
fight.Butguesswhat?Theyhaven'tfoughtuntilnow.We'vebeenbeggingthemfor
years.SaudiArabiaisfighting,exceptnotinSyria,notinIraq.They'refightinginYemen.
Andthey'renotdoingthathotajobthereeither.So,wehavetofigureouthowto
motivatethosewewanttoworkwithus.Andthat'sgoingtotaketime.Andwhatdowe
dointhemeantime?We'vegottocontainISISforaslongaspossible.Andifwecould
beattheSovietUnion,Iwouldn'tbetthefamilyfarmagainstourbeatingISIS.

18:40:42

Thankyou.

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[applause]

JohnDonvan:
Thankyou,DovZakheim.AndthatconcludesRound1ofthisIntelligenceSquaredU.S.
debate,whereourmotionisContainmentisNotEnough:ISISMustBeDefeated.
Rememberhowyouvotedintheopeningvotingrounds,andwe'regoingtohaveyou
voteagainafterthethirdroundofthedebate.Andagain,remindingyouthattheteam
whosenumbershavechangedthemostbetweenthetwovotesinpercentagepoint
termswillbedeclaredourwinner.

NowontoRound2.Round2iswherethedebaterstakequestionsfromme,addressone
anotherdirectly,andtakequestionsfromyouinourliveaudiencehereinAspen.The
motionisthis:ContainmentisNotEnough:ISISMustBeDefeated.We'veheardone
teamarguingforthemotion,MichleFlournoyandPhilipZelikow,arguingthatISISis
notAlQaeda.ISISisnominorleagueorganizationthatcontainmentwouldbearecipe
forendlessterroristattacks,thatsuccesswouldbesupportingMuslimgroupsinsidethe
ISISrealm,whowouldthemselvestakeonthebattleofdefeatingISIS.

18:41:42

AndsuccesswouldbethefurtheringofthateffortwithU.S.support,butnot,they
emphasize,withhundredsofthousandsofU.S.bootsontheground.Theteamarguing
againstthemotion,AnneMarieSlaughterandDovZakheim,theyarearguingthat
containmentbythat,theymeanstoppingISISwhereitis,buttheydon'tmeanaroll
back.Theychargetheiropponentswithneedingtodefendrollback.That'swhatthis
debateisactuallyabout.Theysaythatcontainmentisnotdoingnothing.Butatthe
sametime,iftheUnitedStatesweretogetinvolved,itwouldstrengthenISIS's
recruitingefforts,thateverytimewekillsomebodyinISIS,itbringssomebodynew,and
thatitisnavetoarguethatdefeatcannothappenwithoutbringinghundredsof
thousandsoftroopsontotheground,thatyoucannotcountonlocalforcestodothat.
I'mactuallyseeingaconfusingamountofoverlapbetweenthetwosides,intermsof
themeansthatyouwouldusetoputyourparticularvisionsintoplay.

18:42:41

You'rebothtalkingaboutyou'rebothtalkingaboutsmallnumbersoftroopsto
support.Definitelyyouwouldcontainandstop.Youwouldcontainand,tosomedegree,
moveon.ButIamsomewhatconfusedbytheteamarguingforthemotion,saying,"We
don'twanttoputtroopsontheground."Youropponentssay,"Well,howelseareyou
goingtorollback?"

So,Iwanttotakethattoyou.Iliketherollbackquestion.Youwantifyouwantto
takeawaytheterritorythatISIShas,whichisitsmainasset,reallyit'swhatgivesitthe
basisforclaimingacaliphate,anditsbestadvertisementforbeingauthenticand
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legitimatetoitsadherents.Ifyou'renotgoingtotakeawaytheirterritory,whatisitthat
youaregoingtobedoing?TakethattoMichle.

MichleFlournoy:
Ithinkthatit'ssomethingthatit'simportanttounderstandisinordertobreaktheir
narrativeofvictory,youhavetorollbackterritory.Youhavetotaketerritoryawayfrom
ISIS.Andthewayinwhichwe'rearguingtodothatistolooktotheactorswhodohave
thepoliticalwilltofight,buthavenotbeengiventhesupportorconditions.

18:43:46

So,forexample,thisisnotabouttryingtoretrainalargelyShi'aIraqisecurityforcesto
gointoSunniareas.Whatweneedtodois,first,withapoliticalstrategy,pushtheIraqi
governmenttowardsapolicyofinclusionoftheSunnis.Iftheexclusionandthe
persecutionoftheSunnipopulationsthathascreatedthefertilesoilforagrouplike
ISIStocomein.Theyarewillingtofightbecauseit'stheirhometerritories.

Buttheyneedtwoconditions.Oneistheyneedtoknowthataftertheyfightandshed
bloodtokickISISout,theywillbeinadifferentIraq,thattheywillhavesomeprospect
forselfgovernanceandsupport,andthatreinclusionintheIraqisociety.Andnumber
two,theyhavetoknowthatthey'refullysupported,thatwehavetheirback,that
someonehastheirback.

18:44:41

Andhere,it'snotamatterofU.S.,youknow,brigadesanddivisions.It'samatterof
givingthemnotonlytrainersonabase,butcombatadviserswhowillhelpadvisethem
whenthey'reincontactwithISIS.

JohnDonvan:
Allright.Let'sletAnneMarieSlaughter

FemaleSpeaker:
Airsupport

JohnDonvan:
AnneMarieSlaughter[inaudible]okay.DovZakheim.

DovZakheim:
Yeah.Acoupleofthingsonthat.First,we'vebeenpromisingthistotheSunnisforalong
timeinIraq.Whyshouldtheybelieveus?Numberone.Wehaven'tdoneituntilnow.
Andwhoknowsifwecandoit?

PhillipZelikow:
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Dov,that'snottrue.Wediditin2007and2008.

DovZakheim:
Absolutelyright.

PhillipZelikow:
Isawit.

DovZakheim:
Yousawit.Andwherearewetoday?

FemaleSpeaker:
[unintelligible]

DovZakheim:
Wewalkedawayfromitand

JohnDonvan:
Wait

DovZakheim:
theproblemis

JohnDonvan:
Wait.Let'sDov,yougoandthen

DovZakheim:
thisisproblemisandthisisourproblemintheMiddleEastyouknow,remember
webackedtheShah1,000percent?AsktheShahwhereheisthesedays.Pushingup
daisies.Thefactofthematteriswehavemadepromiseafterpromise.Andletmetell
yousomethingelse.

18:45:38

ThiswholefightwehavewiththeIsraelis?DoyouthinktheArabslookatthatandsay,
"MyGod.TheydoublecrossedMubarak.TheydoublecrossedtheShah.They'redouble
crossingtheIsraelis.Canwereallytrustthem?"Yes.Youwereright.Whatyoudidin'07
and'08wasabsolutelyright.Whathashappenedsincethen?Andbytheway,let'slook
atSyria.WhodidtheSyrianswanttofightfirst?ISISorAssad?

JohnDonvan:
Dov

DovZakheim:
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We

JohnDonvan:
Dov,15moresecondstorelatethistothemotion.

DovZakheim:
Absolutely.

[laughter]

Thepointisthatifyou'retalkingaboutbuckinguppeopletofightagainstISIS,youdon't
havethepeopletobuckupbecausewedon'thavethecredibilitytobuckthemup.Does
thatcometothepoint?

JohnDonvan:
Andyou'resayingthattherollbackthattheyproposed,byusingthoseforces,willnot
happen?

DovZakheim:
Can'thappen.

JohnDonvan:
Okay.

AnneMarieSlaughter:
Iwould

JohnDonvan:
Allright.Letmebringittotheotherside,andthenI'llcomebacktoyou,AnneMarie.
Philip.PhilipZelikow.

PhillipZelikow:
We'renotsayingthestatusquoworks.Theresolutionisnotsupportingthestatusquo.

18:46:37

Sothat'sabutwhatwe'resayingistochangethestatusquoyouhavetoleadwitha
differentpoliticalstrategy.So,thatpromisestheSunnistheselfgovernment.Yes,many
ofthemfeelbetrayed.TheyfeelbetrayedbecausetheU.S.didnothavetheirbackafter
2008,forvariousreasons.Andso,youhavetogivethemasituationinwhichtheyare
thedominantpopulationinSyria.That'smajorityruleinSyria.AndtheninIraq,
therefore,aprotectedminority,upinthenorthandinthesouth.Andthat'sdoable.

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Infact,theIraqiprimeminister,forthefirsttime,withthecouncilofministers,has
movedforward,withU.S.pressure,andthelawsthatwouldactuallyputinplacethe
devolutionofpowerdowntotheprovincestoanunprecedentedlevelcombinedwitha
constitutionthatwouldgivethoseprovincesthemoneyproportionatelytotheir
populationoutoftheIraqibudget.Combinethatwiththekindofmilitarysupport
Michlereferstoandthenyouhaveastrategythat'srealistic.Butthinkaboutthe
alternative.

JohnDonvan:
Okay,but

PhilipZelikow:
Doyougiveuponthemandletitgo?

18:47:43

JohnDonvan:
AnneMarieSlaughter.

AnneMarieSlaughter:
Phil,IfeellikeI'mbackin1965,althoughIwasveryyoungin1965,butIreallyIfeel
likeyou'resayingI'msurewecanfindthesefolksandI'msuretheycanfightourfight
justaslongaswegivethemwhattheyneedtodo.Andiftheydon't,well,we'llgive
themalittlemoreandthenwe'llgivethemsomeadvisorsontheground.Andthen
guesswhat,becausewereallygottogetthisdonebecausewereallydohavetorollit
back,we'regoingtosendinthetroops.It'snotasiftheObamaadministrationisnot
pushingashardasitcanontheIraqistobeinclusive.Thathasbeenour
strategy.They'reworkingashardastheycan.

It'snotasifthey'renottryingtofindpeopleinSyriawhowillfightISIL.It'snotasifthey
haven'tbeenpushingTurkeytofightISIL.EverybodywantstofightISIL,buttheywant
tofightsomeoneelsemoreandwecan'tdoitforthem.TomFriedmansaid,"Any
strategyintheMiddleEastthatstartswithI,we,orus,isdoomedtofail."

18:48:38

It'sgottobeastrategythatstartswiththem,theylead,westopwedon'tletISIS
expand,buttheyhavetodothefightingandwecanbackthemiftheywantto,but
we'renotgoingtorollitback.

PhillipZelikow:
Butthepointwascantheyfight?Yeah,theycanfight.Ifyougivethemthekindof
support,they'veprovenit.Whattheywantaboveallistofighttocontroltheirown

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homes.Isthatarealisticgoal?Yeah.That'sarealisticgoal.That'sthegoalofnational
liberation.That'snotwhatwewerefightinginVietnam

JohnDonvan:
I'mhavingdifficultyunderstandingwhereyoutwodisagreewitheachother.

[laughter]

Unlessthey'resayingthatyourvisionofforalongtimeleavingISISwiththepiecesof
territoryithasnowiscrazybecauseit'ssuchaterrificadvertisementfor
recruitment.Theygettheirlegitimacyasacaliphatefromhavingtheterritoryand
they'resayingthepatienceyou'rewillingtoshowthesituationisacrazyidea,whichwill
leadtodisintegrationandultimatelyaninvasion.

18:49:43

Idlikeyoutotakeonthatpoint,becauseIthinkthat'swhereIseesome
disagreement.DovZakheim.

DovZakheim:
Well,firstofallwe'renottalkingaboutpatiencehere.IthoughtAnneMarielaiditout
verywell.Wedowanttokeeppushingthem.Nobodysaidtostopeventhe
bombing.Wecontinuewiththat.WearmtheKurds.Wedotrain.Thepointisallof
thatisnotgoingtodefeatISIS.It'sgoingtocontainISIS.That'sthepointandit'sgoing
totaketime.It'sgoingtotaketimetorecoverfromthefactthatsince2008whenyou
werelastthereanddoingwhatyoudid,wearenowin2015.Sevenyearsandbyyour
ownstatementinthosesevenyearswehavenotprogressed.Ittakestimeandyou
havetocontainanddothethingswe'retalkingaboutandthatyou'retalkingabout.I'm
stillconvincedthatthereasonwesoundsosimilaristhey'remakingthebestcaseforus.

18:50:40

[laughter]

JohnDonvan:
MichleFlournoy.

MichleFlournoy:
Nowearen't.

JohnDonvan:
Tellmewhyyou'renot.

MichleFlournoy:
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Imean,IthinkthatbecauseIthinkAnneMariesaid,containmentisreallyholding
themwheretheyareandwearesayingholdingthemwhereweareisnotenough,
becauseaslongastheyhavetheterritorytheyhavetheywillcontinuetohave
momentum.Theywillcontinuetorecruit.Theywillhaveabasisfromwhichtolaunch
operationsandeventuallytherewillbeattacksofsignificanceontheUnitedStates.The
containmentisarecipeforincreasingriskandcosttotheUnitedStates.

Soyes,thecontainmentmaybeaninitialphaseonthewaytodefeat,butwehaveto
proactivelyrollkeeppreventthemfromspreadingelsewhereandrollthemback
wheretheydospread.Notbygoinginbyourselves,allbyourselves,butby
empoweringthelocalpopulationswhohavethepoliticalwill,thelegitimacy,butmaybe
notthemeansandsupporttheyneedtobeeffective.

18:51:39

JohnDonvan:
And,Michle,withaU.S.brandonthateffort?AndIaskthatbecauseyou'reopponents
aresayingtheminutewesee

MichleFlournoy:
Idon'tthinkweneedtohaveaU.S.brand.Ithinkthemostlegitimacythepeoplewe
shouldbesupportinginthefightagainstISISaretheSunnithevastmajorityofSunnis
intheworldwhoarejustasappalledbythemandfindthemjustasabhorrentaswedo
exceptthey'relivingwiththem.

JohnDonvan:
Oh,AnneMarieSlaughter.

AnneMarieSlaughter:
Thatisthecruxofourdisagreement,right,thatwe'resayingyouholdthem.Weall
agreeonthat.You'resayingyoucanonlywinifyourollitback,butwhatyouwon'tdo
isactuallyadopttheonlystrategythatwouldrollthemback,whichismassiveU.S.
troops,becausewehavebeentryingtogetAfghansandIraqis

MichleFlournoy:
Wehavenotadequatelyresourced

AnneMarieSlaughter:
andSyriansandeveryoneelsetofightforusandtheywon'tdoitinpartbecause
they'vegototherenemies,otherconcerns.Wecan'tfightitforthem,butyouwon't
adoptthestrategythatwillactuallygetyoutowhereyouwanttogo.

18:52:41

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PhillipZelikow:
Therearetwokeyflawsinthisargument.First,wehavenotadequatelyresourcedor
triedadviseandsupport.Sobeforeyougettothatargumenttheonlythingthatwill
workisaU.S.invasion.Canweatleastjusttryaproperstrategyofadviceand
support?Andgiveitatrybecausethesecondflawintheirargumentisthis,they
assumethatthisisastableequilibrium,thatadevastatedSyriawithhalfthepopulation
displacedandmillionsofpeopleinrefugeecampsinallthesurroundingstatesthat
canbestablymaintainedforwhoknowshowlongtocome.Theycanjuststandonthat
tightropeforhoursandhours.We'resayingtheyknowtheycan'tstayonthat
tightrope.Eventuallythey'regoingtofalloffthattightropeandthenyouaskyourself
whichwaydoyouthinkthatgoesastheMiddleEastdescendsintoalloutreligiouswar.

DovZakheim:
Look.Look.Resources,$500millionbuckstotrain60people.That'satremendous
payout.

18:53:39

PhillipZelikow:
Becausewewouldn'tfightAssad.That'swhywecouldattractnewrecruits.

DovZakheim:
Okay.SodoyouwanttofightAssad?Nowyouwanttofightatwofrontwar.

[talkingsimultaneously]

PhillipZelikow:
Syriancivilwar.

DovZakheim:
Youwanttofightbothsides.That'sgreat.Well,Ihopewefigureoutwhichsidewe
shootatfirst.

PhilipZelikow:
That'showyoubringtheSunnicoalitiontogether.

DovZakheim:
Hangon.Youwanttoputfirstofall,howmuchmoneyshouldwefundtheSaudis
whomwewanttofightforus?Imean,thelasttimeIcheckedtheyweren'tgoing
aroundwithatincup.

MichleFlournoy:
That'snotwhatwe'rearguing,Dov.

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DovZakheim:
Soit'snottheSaudis.It'snottheEmirates.It'sjustthesepeoplethemselves.Again,
howdidtheIraqiArmythatweweretraining,andwepouredbillionsintotheseguys,
whatagreatjobtheydid.Sotheyweren'tfightingfortheirhomes,you
say.Okay.WhatdoyouthinkwouldhappenifwepouredbillionsintotheSunnisin
Iraq?Doyouthinkthecentralgovernmentwouldletus?Theywon'tevenletuspour
moneyintoKurdistan.Soyoureallythinkthey'regoingtoletuspourmoneyintothe
Sunnis?

18:54:37

Andoneotherthing,you'remakingtheassumption,andyou'vesaidit,theSunnisare
appalled.Idon'tknowthattheSunnisareappalled.IknowthatEnglishspeaking
CambridgeandOxfordeducatedSunnisareappalled.

[laughter]

Absolutelyright.Iwillnotquarrelwithyou,buthowmanypeoplearefundingthese
guys?ThisisjustliketheCanadianIRA

JohnDonvan:
Okay.

[talkingsimultaneously]

Yougettotheargument

PhillipZelikow:
Franklyyougettoatangle.It'sjustsohard.They'resomixedup.Let'sjustleavethem
beandit'llbeokay.

DovZakheim:
We'renotsayingleavethembe.Andevenifwe[unintelligible]we'restillnotsaying
leavethembe.

JohnDonvan:
Wait.Wait.

PhillipZelikow:
Whenthisregiondisintegratesyoudon'tthinkwewillbecalledbackin?Doyouthink
thedayafterathousandAmericansarekilledinamasscasualtyattackthatthe
presidentyou'regoingtogotothepresidentoftheUnitedStatesandjusttellhim
doingmoreaboutitistoohard?Iwentthrough9/11.Isawwhathappenedafter9/11.

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18:55:37

[unintelligible],sayingAfghanistanwastheleastaccessibleplaceonearthforU.S.
forces,butman,itwasnottoohardafter9/11.

JohnDonvan:
AnneMarieSlaughter.

DovZakheim:
Waitaminute.

AnneMarieSlaughter:
CanIjustsay

JohnDonvan:
Dov.Dov.Dov.Dov.AnneMarieSlaughteristalkingnow.

[laughter]

AnneMarieSlaughter:
Allright.So,allright.I'mnotgoingtogobackto9/11.Iwanttogobacktothe
Sunnisandwhattheywanttodo.We'veheardoverthepasttwodaysfromProfessor
Haykel,again,somebodywhospenthisentirelifestudyingIslam,studyingSunniIslam,
studyingthetheology.HeestimatesthatroughlyhalfoftheSaudis,halfoftheSaudis,
actuallyaresympathetictoISIS.HesaysthattheSaudigovernmentwillnotsendits
troopsagainstISISbecausetheyarecotribespeopleandsothattheyareworriedthat
theSaudimilitarywillnotfightagainsttheircotribespeople.

MichleFlournoy:
We'renotaskingfortheSaudimilitarytocomeinandfightinIraqandSyria.

18:56:37

AnneMarieSlaughter:
Wellthenwhoareweaskingtofight?

MichleFlournoy:
We'reaskingforthesupporttotheSunniswholiveinIraq,whowanttobeself
governingandtobeincludedintheIraqisociety.LookatthenumberofSunnigroups
onthegroundwhoarefightingISISnowinSyriawithoutadequatesupport.Noone's
talkingaboutbringingintheSaudiArabianmilitaryortheUAE.We'retalkingabout
helpingthepeoplewholiveonthegroundinIraqandSyriatoreclaimtheirownlives
andcommunitiesand

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AnneMarieSlaughter:
sotheverypeoplethattheIraqigovernment

PhillipZelikow:
Shouldwejustletthemgo?

DovZakheim:
No,but

PhillipZelikow:
FiftypercentoftheSaudisnowsympathizewithISIS.That'stheproductofthestatus
quoandweshouldthereforesaygee,thisreallyistoohard.IguessSaudiArabiais
goingtogodownthetubes,too?Wheredoyoustopthis?

AnneMarieSlaughter:
Phil,yousaid

PhillipZelikow:
DovZakheimwastalkingabout

AnneMarieSlaughter:
theSaudigovernmentwas

PhillipZelikow:
So

AnneMarieSlaughter:
goingtofightthem.

JohnDonvan:
Dov,takeit.

DovZakheim:
You'relettingmetalk.

JohnDonvan:
Yes.

DovZakheim:
The

JohnDonvan:
I'veletIthinkthere'sbeenafairamountofDovZakheimlettingtalkandgoingon

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DovZakheim:
Thankyou.

[laughter]

JohnDonvan:
So

DovZakheim:
Thankyouverymuch,Mr.Moderator.

18:57:43

JohnDonvan:
Yes.

DovZakheim:
Ihappened

JohnDonvan:
Mister

DovZakheim:
tobeinthePentagonwhentheywerepickingupbodypartsin9/11.So,Idon'tneed
tobelecturedabout9/11.Look.DoyouhonestlythinkthatevenifwegotridofISIS,we
wouldgetridofa9/11?TherewasnoISISin9/11.AndAlQaedaisstillthere.Andthere
areallthesefranchiseterroristgroupssomeofwhomcallthemselves"ISIS,"someof
whomdon't,whocouldwhoarejustasintentongoingafterus.Thatisnottheissue.
Tothrowupthebugabooofsomeindividualbombergoingafterus,andtherefore,we
somehowdefeatISISitjustdoesn'twork.

MichleFlournoy:
ButthisiswhereI

JohnDonvan:
I'mgoingtoletMichleanswer,andthen

MichleFlournoy:
Iambotheredby

JohnDonvan:
I'mgoingtogotoMichle,canyouhangonjustonesecond?

MichleFlournoy:
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I'msorry.

JohnDonvan:
I'mgoingtoletyouanswer.Ijustwanttogotoquestionsfromyouafterthat.Andwhen
thatcomes,thelightswillcomeup.Thewayitwillworkjustraiseyourhand.

18:58:36

Standup.Amicwillbebroughttoyou.Pleasewaitforthemicbeforeaskingyour
question.Goahead,MichleFlournoy.

MichleFlournoy:
Youknow,you'rerightinthesensethattherewillalwaysbeviolentextremistsofone
sortoranother.Whatweneedtofocusonistryingtoaddresstheconditionsthatmake
wholecommunitiesvulnerabletobeingwiththem.Andthere,wehaveanapproach
thathasnotbeentriedandhasnotbeenfullyresourcedtodothatinIraq.AndIthink
that'samuchharderprobleminSyria.Buttherearethingsthatwehavenottriedthat
canalsodothatinSyria.

Andso,Ithinkgettingwrappedaroundtheaxleabouthowmuchmilitaryintervention
arewetalkingaboutisaveryimportantquestion.Butthefundamentalissueiswhatcan
andshouldwedotoaddressthosefundamentalconditions,becauseifwedon'taddress
them,thisthreatwillreachoutandtouchAmerica.

JohnDonvan:
Butdoyoureallydisagreewiththatstatement?

AnneMarieSlaughter:
No.Imean,nothereisIdon'tthinkthere'sanyoneinthisentireaudiencewhohas
foughtashardasIhave,overthepastthreeyears,totrytouseforcetobringthecivil
warinSyriatoapoliticalconclusion.

18:59:41

So,weareyouknow,ifit'saquestionofwhatdowedotoendthecivilwarinSyria,
I'vegotawholeanotherstrategy.Butwhatwe'retalkingabouthereofcoursewe're
withyouintermsofpushingtheIraqigovernmenttobemoreinclusive.We'rewithyou
diplomatically.We'rewithyouagainonthedigitalstrategy,whichisahugepieceofISIS.
Whatwe'resaying,though,iswhatyou'resayingiswehavetopushthemoutofthe
territorytheyhold.Andwearesayingthereisnowaytoactuallydothatthatdoesnot
actuallyinvolvemassiveU.S.troopsontheground,andthatwecantalkabout
supportingothers.We'vebeentryingthatforalongtime.That'snotgoingtogetus
there.

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PhillipZelikow:
DidyourSyriadidyourstrategytointerveneaggressively

JohnDonvan:
PhilipZelikow.

PhillipZelikow:
toendtheSyriancivilwarrequirelotsofU.S.troopsontheground?

AnneMarieSlaughter:
No.Itdidnot.Itrequired

PhillipZelikow:
So,yououghttojustcomeonoverherenow.

[laughter]

AnneMarieSlaughter:
No.Nope.Nope.Butwe'llthat'saseparatedebate.

19:00:37

JohnDonvan:
Let'sgotoquestions.Rightdowninfronthere.Pleasestandupandletthemiccometo
you.Andifyoucouldtellusyournameaswell.It'scomingfromit'scomingdownthe
aisle,behindyou,totheright.

PeterFeaver:
ThisisPeterFeaver.AndIhaveaquestionforthenatteringnabobs,thenegativism,
overhereonthisside.

[laughter]

You'veinvokedtheexampleofcontainment.Buttheonlyexampleofitworkingin
historythatyou'vementionedisagainstasuperpower,theSovietUnion.Canyoutell
meatimewhencontainmentofaterroristorganizationworked?Andifyou'rewillingto
dotheSovietUnioncontainmentmodel,areyouwillingtocontinuewith,leaderto
leader,summitsbetweentheBaghdadiandmaybeevenpingpongdiplomacywith
howfardownthecontainment

JohnDonvan:
Okay.

PeterFeaver:
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alaSovietUnionareyouwillingtogo?

JohnDonvan:
Thanks.Goodquestion.

AnneMarieSlaughter:
Yeah.Sure.

JohnDonvan:
AnneMarieSlaughter.

AnneMarieSlaughter:
So,youjustyouthoughtwewerecontainingasuperpower.Wewerenot.Wewere
containinganideology.

19:01:34

AndwhatisvitalaboutunderstandingISILisit'sjustthelatestmanifestationofan
extremistideologythatsays,"TheonlywaytopurifyIslam,"justasoncetherewere
argumentsabouttheonlywaytopurifyChristianity,"istoreverttoanextremeversion
ofthereligion."So,thebeginningroundofthisis1979,withtheattackonthegreat
mosqueinMecca.Andsimilarly,actually,theIranianrevolution.Thenyouseethe
Taliban.ThenyouseeAlQaeda.

Then,asyou'veheard,youseeBokoHaram.Youseemanifestationsofwhatisa
decadeslongfight.TheArabSpringisanotherversionofit,thatsays,"Thisreligionis
deeply,deeplycorrupt.Itisimpossibletohaveadecentgovernment.Wewanttopurify
thereligionandwewantdecentgovernments.Andit'sjustgoingtokeephappening
untilMuslimsfightitout.Andourargumentiswecancontainit.Weobviouslyhaveto
protectourselves.Butwearenotgoingtobetheonestoactuallywinthisfight.

19:02:45

JohnDonvan:
Iwanttolettheothersiderespondtotheinitialquestion,ifyouwouldliketo.Michle
Flournoy.

MichleFlournoy:
Ithinktheyouknow,thereasonwhyoneofthereasonswhycontainmentworks,
visavisasuperpowerinastateliketheSovietUnion,wasbecauseitwascoupledwith
arobustpolicyofdeterrenceandthethreatofmassiveretaliation.Theseconceptsare
notoperativewhenyou'redealingwithISIS.WhatarewegoingtodotodeterImean,
ISISdeterrenceoftheColdWarsortdoesnotoperatewhen

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AnneMarieSlaughter:
Sureitdoes.

MichleFlournoy:
you'redealingwithatransnationalterroristorganization.

PhillipZelikow:
What'sanexampleofwhat'sworkedwithaterrororganization?

AnneMarieSlaughter:
Quitethecontrary.Theexampleis,aswe'vealsoheardfromtheexpertsonISIL,isthat
ISILthinksthatAlQaeda'sstrategywasafailedstrategybecausetheycauseda
catastrophicattackandpreciselybecausewethenwentinandwipedthemout.

19:03:41

Andtheirstrategyisnottodothat.So,weofcoursearestillgoingtoprotectourselves.
Ifthereissuchanattack,wearegoingtorespond.AndthentheAmericanpeoplewill
supportsendingintroops.Andwewilldowhatwehaveto.Butourpointisthatisnot
theirstrategy.Theirstrategyistoholdterritory.We'regoingtocontainthemthereand
ultimatelylettheMuslimsfightitout.

PhillipZelikow:
Youknow,it'sinteresting

JohnDonvan:
PhilipZelikow.

PhillipZelikow:
whensomeonesaidtodaythat,"Maybewedidn'tneedtoworrysomuchabouta
catastrophicthreat,"itturnedoutthattherecentlyretiredheadoftheBritishSecret
Servicewasatthetable.Andhesaid,"WhenIwaslisteningtoyousaythat,Iwas
thinkingthatneitherInoranyleaderofanysecurityserviceIknowofwouldhave
understoodwhatyouaretalkingabout."Ifthethethreatpicturethattheyareseeing,
thethreatpicturethatcausedthedirectoroftheFBItopubliclysaytwoweeksagothat
ISISisnowtheleadingthreatonhisagenda,thereasontheFBIhasbeenpickingupISIS
supportersinall50statesoftheUnitedStatesduringthelastmonththat'sbecauseof
thethreatpicturethattheyareseeing.

19:04:50

Andthat'sthisyear.That'snot2016.That's2017.Youjustthinkaboutthewaythis
developsintime,becausethisisamuchlargersafehaventhanAlQaedaeverhad.

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JohnDonvan:
Aquestiondownfronthere.Andthemiciscomingdownthisway.

FemaleSpeaker:
MynameisAyaanHirsiAli.AndMichleandPhilip,youmadeafantasticmoralcaseto
defeatISIS.AndIcompletelyagreewithyou.Lastyearthistime,September,our
presidentstoodinfrontoftheworldandsaid,"We'regoingtodegradeanddefeatISIS."
Ourvicepresidenttoldtheworld,"We'regoingtochasethemtothegatesofhell."

19:05:42

Youmadeafantasticcase.AndI'mwithyou.IvotedforitandIthinkI'llvoteforitagain.

JohnDonvan:
Ineedyouto

FemaleSpeaker:
Butthere'saquestion

JohnDonvan:
Ihere'saquestion.

FemaleSpeaker:
Yes.Andhere'sthequestion.Andthequestionthatyouhavetoanswerandyouhaveto
dealisreally,isthisdebateaboutISISorisitaboutAmericanleadership?IstheUnited
StatesofAmericapreparedtotaketheleadinthis?Andforthetwoofyou,whatcase
wouldyoumaketothepresidentialcandidatesandtotheAmericanpeopletotakethat
leadandkeepthatlead?

MichleFlournoy:
Ithinkthe

[applause]

JohnDonvan:
MichleFlournoy.

MichleFlournoy:
Thisisaboutboth.IthinkwehavetomakethecasethatISISisathreatthatwilldirectly,
touchthreatenAmericans,whetherwewantthattobetrueornot,andthatthekind
ofpoliticalstrategy,thekindofcoalition,thekindofeffortthatisgoingtobeneededto
actuallyturnthepresident'sandthevicepresident'swordsintoactionswhichhasnot
fullyhappenedyetthatwillrequireU.S.leadership.

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19:06:52

AndnobodyelsebuttheUnitedStatescanleadthatcoalitiontobeatthisorganization.

JohnDonvan:
Okay.Theothersidedoesnotneedtorespond.Rightdowninfrontthere,sir.Andthe
micisgoingtocomedownyousee.

GrahamAllison:
Greatdebate.GrahamAllison.Ifthisissuchanimminentthreat,whyisitthatourIsraeli
alliesaresorelaxedaboutit?Wehaveatracktwoconversation

JohnDonvan:
Youactuallydidaskaquestion.Thatwasperfect.

[laughter]

SoI'mgoingtogowiththat

[laughter]

becauseIthinkthesepeopleknowthebackgroundonit.SoI'lltakeittoAnneMarie
Slaughter.

AnneMarieSlaughter:
So,Iwouldaskexactlythesamequestion.

19:07:35

Imean,Israel'sourclosestallyintheMiddleEast.Theyarecertainlyeverybitasmuch
enemiesofISISasweare.AsIsaid,ISISfightsthecrusaders,theZionists,theSufisand
theShiitesand,yes,Israellooksatthis,Ithink,andunderstandsthattogetinthereto
theextentthatitwouldtaketorollthembackfromtheirterritoryisimmediatelyto
strengthenthem,becausethenthey'refightingtheZionistenemyandsoIIthink
Israelisverywiseonthis.

JohnDonvan:
Responsefromthisside?PhilZelikow.

PhillipZelikow:
ThepresumptionthatIsraelisrelaxedaboutISIS

[laughter]

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whichwouldyouknow,anymemberofISISifheweretoencounteranIsraelicitizen
inISISterritory,there'sgoingtobeareallygruesomevideothenextweek,okay?Sothe
notionthatputyourselfinIsrael'sposition.Theyhavealotofthingsgoingonintheir
worldrightnow.Palestinians.They'reattackingHezbollahinSyria,whichisalso
fightingonAssad'sside.

19:08:39

So,thenotionthatgee,let'sseeifwecanattack[unintelligible]andbombISISsothat
JewishairplanesarebombingISISandthathelpsusrecruitSunniMuslims?SoIthink
theIsraeli'shavekindoffiguredoutthatthat'snotthepathtoasuccessfulcoalition
strategytodefeatISIS.

JohnDonvan:
Hangonjustonesecond.I'mgoingtoletyourespond.Okay.SomebodyneededI
thoughttotellmesomething.Theywantmetopointtoher.AnneMarieSlaughter.

AnneMarieSlaughter:
MaybetheotherreasontheIsraeli'sarenotquitesoupsetisthatISISisactually
attackingbothHezbollahandHamas.

JohnDonvan:
Let'sgotoanotherquestion.Downfronthere.Sir,ifyoucouldstandup.Themic's
coming.Yeah.

MaleSpeaker:
StefanEdlis[spelledphonetically].Shortstatement.

JohnDonvan:
Veryshort,please.

MaleSpeaker:
Veryshort.

19:09:36

WhentheIrishexcusetheexpression,notIrish,buttheArabSpring.

[laughter]

JohnDonvan:
Iwanttoknowthefreeassociationthatgotyouthere.

[laughter]
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MaleSpeaker:
Theyweresecular.Itturnsouttobethey'reactuallyareligiousrevival.So,areligious
revival.Myquestionisverysimpledirectedtoyou.Wherewouldthemoneycome
fromtoundertakethatgiganticeffortthatyoupropose?

DovZakheim:
Well,asIsaid,Idon'tthink

JohnDonvan:
DovZakheim.

DovZakheim:
Idontthinkthatrightnowwehavethenationalwilltodothisandfranklyevenifwe
startedspendingthemoneyand,youknow,wedospendmoneyonthesesortsof
things,thistakestime.Ineffectwhatyou'redoingwhenyouifweweretodowhat
yousuggest,wewouldbecontainingthem.

19:10:36

Wewouldn'tberollingthembackatthatpoint.Theywouldn'tloseaninchofterritory
becauseofthat.Ittakestime.Ifyouwanttounderminethemthisisoneofthewaysto
doit.Whatyou'retalkingaboutisradiofreeEurope,voiceofAmericaupdatedto2015.

JohnDonvan:
MichleFlournoy.

MichleFlournoy:
Theadministration,theObamaadministration,hasverysuccessfullyputtogethera60
nationcoalition,butwhatwehaven'tyetachievedisacoherentstrategywhere
everybody'spullingintherightdirection,thesamedirection.Oneofthethingsthatour
partnersneedtobeconvincedofisthedegreeofU.S.commitment.IthinkiftheU.S.
showsthatcommitmentwehavealotofleveragetogetotherstobeusingthemoney
they'realreadyputtingintothistheaterinamuchmoreproductiveandeffective
manner.So,we'renotgoingtobefundingthisalone.Wehave60nationssignedupto
help.Whatwehavetodoisuseourcommitmenttobetterleverageandfocusto
betterfocustheeffortsofthewholecoalition,andwehavenotdonethat.

19:11:44

DovZakheim:
Withrespect,youearliersaidwedontwanttorelyontheSaudis.Wewanttorelyon
thelocals.

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MichleFlournoy:
No,IsaidIdon'twanttohaveSaudiforcescomingintoIraqandSyria.

DovZakheim:
Okay.Well,our

MichleFlournoy:
That'sdifferentthanaskingtheSaudistohelpfundaproperstrategythatwehave
helpedtoputtogether.

DovZakheim:
Butpartofourisourcoalitiononlyforfunding?Isthatwhatwe'redoinghere?

MichleFlournoy:
No.Ofcoursenot.Thereareotherthingsaswell,butdoyouthink

DovZakheim:
Well,whatarethoseotherthings?

MichleFlournoy:
it'sasmartideatoputSaudiforcesinIraqandSyria?Idon't.

DovZakheim:
I'mnottheonesuggestingit.You'retheonesuggestingit.

MichleFlournoy:
NoIdidn'tsuggestit.Youputwordsinmymouth.

DovZakheim:
AllI'msayingisyousaidthatit'sthelocalforcesandnowyou'vegota60nation

MichleFlournoy:
LocalSyrianandIraqiforcesfighting

DovZakheim:
Right,andnowyou'retalkingaboutacoalitionthat'sdoingwhat?

JohnDonvan:
Iwanttosayingsomething.Iwanttoremindyouthatwe'reinthequestionandanswer
sectionofthisIntelligenceSquaredU.S.debate.

[laughter]

DovZakheim:
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Iansweredthequestion.

JohnDonvan:
Iwanttoremindyouthatwe'reinthequestionandanswersectionofthisIntelligence
SquaredU.S.debate.I'mJohnDonvan.Wehavefourdebaters.

19:12:37

Twoteamsoftwodebatingthismotion:ContainmentisNotEnough:ISISMustBe
Defeated.Let'sgotoanotherquestion,sir.

DavidPatraeus:
IamDavidPetraeusandI

[laughter]

[applause]

andIrisetotakeslightissueandaskaquestionofmyfriend,AnneMarie
Slaughter.AnneMarie,youstatedthatthesurgedidn'twork.Withgreatrespect,Iwas
thereandactually

[laughter]

actuallyitworkedprettyextraordinarily.Imean,drivingviolencedownby85to95
percent.Philremembers.Hewasintheadministration.Weachievedallthe
objectives.Bytheway,AmbassadorCrockerisbackhere,forwhomIwasprivilegedto
bethewingmanashepursuedthediplomaticefforts.Theresultsweresustained,in
fact,forthreeandahalfyearsafterthedrawdownofthesurgeforcesuntilPrime
MinisterMalakiundidthemandallthatweandIraqiforcesachieved,andhealienated
theSunnis.

19:13:40

So,thepointhereisthatheundidthepoliticalbargainthatwasreachedduringthe
surge.ThefurtherpointisthatthecenterofgravityofthefightagainstISISisnotinthe
frontlinesit'sinBaghdadinIraqipoliticsandindeedinvariousSyrianlocations

JohnDonvan:
Wait.Ihavetostopyou.I'mgivingyoualotofleewaybecauseofyourservice,but
ultimatelydemocraticallyIneedtoaskyoutoaskaquestion.

DavidPatraeus:
Okay.
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JohnDonvan:
Popit.

DavidPatraeus:
Thequestion.Canyoubeconfident,AnneMarie,thatallowingISIStocontinueto
controllargeareasofSyria,i.e.,justcontainingthem,andIraq,canallowthenew
politicaldiscussionsthataresoimportantinensuringmultisectarianandmultiethnic
populationsthattheycanenterintothenewbargainsintheshadowofareasfrom
whichcontained,butundefeatedISISextremistswillcontinuetoprojectviolence
seekingtospreadthehorrifichumanitariansituationandgeopoliticalChernobylthatis

[laughter]

[applause]

Syria.

AnneMarieSlaughter:
Dave.

19:14:42

[applause]

So,GeneralPetraeus,evenso,GeneralPetraeus,eventhoughwearebothproud
graduatesoftheWoodrowWilsonSchool,Icouldnotquitekeepallofthatinmyhead
atonemoment,butwhatIwillsayisIdidnotsaythatthesurgewasnot
successful.Thesurgewassuccessfulandno,Ididnot.Isaiditwas

JohnDonvan:
Iagain,Idon'twanttheaudiencedebatingwiththedebaters,sothefloorisyours.

AnneMarieSlaughter:
ItwasabsolutelysuccessfulandthenyouleftandthenweleftandthentheIraqisdid
notdowhattheyshouldbedoingtoliberatetheirowncountryontheirownandweare
backhereagain.Asyousaidfromthestage,Iwasthere.WeliberatedMosul,but
MosulisnowonceagainunderISILcontrolorunderaviolentextremistIslamicgroup.

19:15:37

Sothat'sexactlywhatI'msaying.IfwecouldkeepDavidPetraeusonthegroundinIraq
workingwithChesterCrocker[sic]advisingtheIraqigovernmenteverystepoftheway,
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yesIthinkwewouldsucceed.Mypointiswearenotgoingtodothatandbecause
we'renotgoingtodothattryingtodoitonemoretimewejustdoitroundandround
androundandwedonotultimatelydowhatweneedtodotoletthisfightplayoutas
it'sgoingtoplayoutonitsown.I'msorry.

JohnDonvan:
MichleFlournoy.

AnneMarieSlaughter:
RyanCrockerImhavingterribletimetoday.

JohnDonvan:
Michle.

MichleFlournoy:
IthinkthequestionwasinthefaceofstillvibrantISISinIraqandSyria,youcan'thow
canyougettothepoliticalprogressthatwillultimatelyresolvethesesituations?You
arguedfordiplomacyandpoliticalsettlementonbothsidesofthisborderaspartof
yourstrategyaswell,butyoucan'tgetthereaslongasISISisavibrantforce.

19:16:39

AnneMarieSlaughter:
WeagreethatifyouwanttorollbackISISandtakethemout,allright,thenand
you'rewillingtostay,youcangetwhatdidyousay,GeneralPetraeus,Ithinkyousaid
maturingmultisectarianpopulations.

JohnDonvan:
Therearenolifelinesinthedebate.

[laughter]

AnneMarieSlaughter:
Ihaven'tseenallright.

JohnDonvan:
Youcan'tcallout.Sorry.

AnneMarieSlaughter:
MypointwasIhavenotseenthat,butifweweretogetthereit'sgoingtotakeactually
pushingthemoutand,onceagain,youdon'thaveastrategythatcandothatabsent
U.S.troops.

MichleFlournoy:
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Webelievethatwedoandwe'veexplainedit,butIthinkabsentthat,youare
condemningthisregiontoperpetualinstability,civilwar,violence,andthelaunching
theincubationofterrorismagainsttheWest.Andagainstus.

JohnDonvan:
AndthatconcludesRound2ofthisIntelligenceSquaredU.S.debate,whereourmotion
isContainmentisNotEnough:ISISMustBeDefeated.

19:17:41

[applause]

Now,wemoveontoRound3.Round3arewherethedebatersmakeclosingstatements
fromtheirseats.Theywillbetwominuteseach.Heretomakehisclosingstatementfor
themotionContainmentisNotEnough:ISISMustBeDefeated,PhilipZelikow,professor
ofhistoryattheUniversityofVirginia,formercounselorfortheDepartmentofState.

PhillipZelikow:
OneofthethingsIhadthesadtaskofdoingyearsagowastobetheExecutiveDirector
ofthe9/11commission.Thisisthecommissionthatwascalledupontoinvestigateafter
thefactwhathadhappened.Andofcourse,foryearsbefore9/11,weknewAlQaeda
wasatwarwithus.Well,weweren'tsuretheyweregoingtocometothehomeland.
Andbesides,ifyoulookedattheproblemandpeoplediditwasjustsohard.Lookat
whowe'dhavetoworkwithinAfghanistantheNorthernAlliance.Thepoliticsofthe
NorthernAlliancewerenightmarish.Therewerethugsandwarlordsamongthem.

19:18:40

Andbesides,ifyouwantedtodosomethingwithsomespecialforces,there'dberisksto
Americans.Andofcoursethencame9/11.AndthenhereIaminterviewinggenerals,
andnationalsecurityadvisers,andevenformerpresidents.Andit's"Wishwecoulda,
wishweshoulda."Allthethingsthatalltheoptionstheythoughtofdoing,they
considered,andtheyweretoocostly,toorisky.AndthepoliticsofAfghanistanwastoo
hard.ButwasitreallythenbetternowtothenhavetooccupyAfghanistanandwe're
stillthere14andahalfyearslater,becausewedidn'ttaketherisks,themessypolitics,
thehardlaboringwithsomeeffort?Instead,weendedupwithcatastropheanda
catastrophiccommitmentoftheUnitedStates.Ifyouwanttoavoidthatkindof
catastrophiccommitment,votefortheresolution,becauseweneedtonipthisinthe
bud.

19:19:39

Weneedtodealwiththisinfectionnowbeforethegangrenespreadsandthesurgeon
bringsoutthehacksaw.
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JohnDonvan:
Thankyou,PhilipZelikow.

[applause]

Themotion:ContainmentisNotEnough:ISISMustBeDefeated.Andheretomakeher
closingstatementagainstthemotion,AnneMarieSlaughter,presidentandCEOofNew
AmericaandformerdirectorofpolicyplanningfortheDepartmentofState.

AnneMarieSlaughter:
So,thelasttimeIwasonthisstage,Iwastalkingaboutmale/femaleequality.It's
anotherhatthatIwear.Andfromthatperspective,ISISdoesabsolutelyunspeakable
thingstowomen.Infact,ISISISshouldstandfor"internationalsextrafficking,"
becausethatiswhattheydo.Inhideousways.AndI'mnothesitantabouttheuseof
force,andI'mdefinitelynothesitantaboutU.S.leadershipintheworld.

19:20:32

ThereasonI'mtakingthepositionI'mtakingisbecausewhenIreadthepropositionthat
said"Containmentisnotenough:ISISmustbedefeated,"Isaw,onceagain,theUnited
Statesmakingthemistakeofbelievingthatwecouldsolveaproblemthatisadecades
long,maybecenturylongstruggle,fight,war,butamongMuslims.Weshouldprotect
ourselves,absolutely.Weshoulddoeverythingwecandiplomatically,digitally.Andyes,
ifthereisthatcoalitionofotherstatesorstrongfightersthatwecansupport,Iwould
supportthem.Butwhat'sreallyatissueheretheonlythingwe'redisagreeingaboutis
doyoustopthemwheretheyareordoyourollthemback?Doyoutakeawaytheir
territory?

19:21:30

Andmypropositionisthatifwe,theUnitedStates,trytoleadacoalitiontotakeaway
theirterritory,wewillonceagainfindourselvesinthemidstofsomeoneelse'sfightina
waywedonotunderstand,andwe'reoftenproducingpreciselytheconsequenceswe
wishtoavoid.

[applause]

JohnDonvan:
Thankyou,AnneMarieSlaughter.ThemotionisContainmentisNotEnough:ISISMust
BeDefeated.Andheretomakeherclosingstatementinsupportofthemotion,Michle
Flournoy,cofounderandCEOoftheCenterforaNewAmericanSecurityandformer
UndersecretaryofDefense.

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MichleFlournoy:
OneofthemostsearingmemoriesofmytimeinthePentagonwasavisittoDoverAir
ForceBase.DoverAirForceBaseiswheretheremainsoffallenU.S.servicemeninIraq,
Afghanistan,whereverarebroughtbacktotheUnitedStates.Itisthefirstplace
wherethefamiliesofthefallenareabletoreceivetheirlovedones.OnthenightIwas
there,myfirstvisit,itwasbitterlycold.

19:22:38

Wewerewaitingonthetarmacforwhatseemedlikeforever,foralargemilitary
transportplanetocomein.Eventually,theplanecamein,landed,andtaxiedtoastop
onthetarmac.Offtotheside,nearby,awayfromthepress,wasaboutwereabouta
dozengrieving,griefstrickenfamilieswhoweretheretoreceiveafather,ahusband,a
brother,adaughter,asister.Andwewaitedforwhatseemedlikeaneternity.And
eventually,thebackoftheplaneopenedtorevealarowofflagdrapedcaskets.And
onebyone,eachofthosewaslovinglycarriedbyagroupofsoldiersofftoanawaiting
family.Itwasajustunbearableanddevastatingscene.Thiswasthecostthehuman
costofwar.

19:23:39

ThiswasAmericanswhohadsacrificedeverythingfortheircountryandfamilieswho
wouldneveragainbethesame.Whenwethinkabouthowwe'regoingtofightorhow
wedealwithISIS,weneedtothinkaboutDover,thehumancostofthechoiceswe
makeandthechoiceswefailtomake.AndIamheretodayfirmlybelievingthatifwedo
notadoptamorerobustandwellresourcedstrategy,wherewe'renotdoingitallby
ourselves,butweareleadinganinternationalcoalitiontofightthishorrificmovement,
wewillspendmorebloodandtreasuredowntheroad.

JohnDonvan:
MichleFlournoy,I'msorry.Yourtimeisup.Thankyou.

[applause]

ThemotionisContainmentisNotEnough:ISISMustBeDefeated.Andheretomakehis
closingstatement,DovZakheim,asenioradviserattheCenterforStrategicand
InternationalStudies,andformerUndersecretaryofDefense.

19:24:43

DovZakheim:
In2002,Iwasaskedtohelpgettroopsandfundsforthatcoalitionfirstthecoalitionin
Afghanistan,thenthecoalitioninIraq.Igotmoney.Ididn'tgetanytroopsfrom
Muslims.NotoneMuslimcountrysenttroopsin,asIrecall.Somehelpedwithtraining
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intheirowncountries.Totalkofcoalitionsistotalk,essentiallyiftheBritswantto
playagainofaU.S.U.K,coalitionwithalotofotherflags.It'snotgoingtowork.
GeneralPetraeusisright.Thesurgeworked.Phil,youreright.Withover100,000
troops.AndIremembersittingnexttotheDeputySecretaryofDefenseandtestifying,
whothensaidthatGeneralShinsekiwaswrongwhenhesaidweneededseveral
hundredthousandtroopstowininIraq.

19:25:35

WedidputsixfiguresoftroopsinIraq.LotsoftroopsinAfghanistan.Butthat'sbehind
us.It'snot9/11anymore.It'snot9/12.Wehaveahistoryofbeinginthere.Theydon't
wantus.So,wehavethisHobbesianchoice:putinloadsoftroops,beatISISbackroll
themback,asyouwouldlikeandtaketheriskofalienatingtheArabs.Oralternately,
holdingtheminplace,doingalltheotherthingsyoutalkabout.Butit'lltaketime.It'll
takemoney.It'lltakewill.Anditain'tgoingtohappenovernight.AndIgobacktowhatI
saidearlier.Youhavemadethebestargumentsforcontainmentwiththeexceptionof
mypartner,ofcoursethatI'veheardtonight.Wecannotbeatthesepeopleunlesswe
areabsolutelycommittedtomoremoney,moretroops,morewill.Itain'tgoingto
happen.Thankyou.

19:26:33

JohnDonvan:
Thankyou,DovZakheim.

[applause]

AndthatconcludesclosingstatementsinRound3.Andnowit'stimetolearnwhichside
youbelievehasarguedthebest.I'mgoingtoaskyouagaintogotothekeypadsatyour
seatandvoteasyoudidatthebeginning.Takealookatthemotionagain.Paycareful
attentiontothephrasing,soyouareclearwhichsideyou'revotingon.Butifit'sforthis
team,it'sNumber1.Andifit'sforthisteam,it'sNumber2.

Andifyoubecameorremainundecided,it'sNumber3.Andwe'lltakeabout15to20
secondstoletyoucompletethevoteandlockitout.Okay.Whilethat'shappening,I
wouldjustliketosayafewthings.Firstofall,it'sourgoalatIntelligenceSquaredto
havedebatesliketheonewejusthad.Reallypassionateargument,broughtwith
respectinformation,intelligence,civilityIwanttocongratulateallofthesedebatersfor
whattheydid.

[applause]

It'sreallyapleasureforusalsotobepartneringagainwiththeAspenStrategyGroup
andwejustneedtothankafewpeople.
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19:27:43

Firstofall,JoeNyeandBrentScowcroft.Thankyouverymuchforhavingushereagain.

[applause]

Groupdirectorandalsoamemberofouradvisoryboard,NickBurns.Thankyouvery
much.

[applause]

AndDeputyDirectorJonathonPrice.Thankyou.AndtheAspenInstitutePresidentand
CEOWalterIsaacson.

[applause]

AndagainwewanttothankthefoundersofIntelligenceSquaredU.S.,Robert
RosenkranzandAlexandraMunroe.

[applause]

Theotherthing,asIsaidatthebeginning,thisisactuallyaphilanthropic
organization.Wethispodcastandradiobroadcastwegiveouttotheworldforfree
andwe'renowatthepointwheremillionsofpeoplearelisteningtothemandwerely
onthesupportofalotofdonorswhoarealsointhegroup.So,withoutnamingyouI
wanttothankyouallforyourinvolvementandsupport.

19:28:39

[applause]

IalsowanttotakethisopportunitytosaytoGeneralPetraeusIknowthatforalong
timewe'vebeentryingtobookyoutobeinoneofourdebates.
[laughter]

AndIthinkyou'reindicatingnowthatyoumaybeinterested,thatyou'rebookable,
becausewewouldlovetohaveyouinthefuture.So,wewillbesurroundingyoufor
emaillater.Becausefromtheaudienceyoudebateprettywell.

[applause]

We'reputtingthefinaltouchesonourupcomingfallseason.Iknowalotofyoudoget
toNewYork,sowewanttogiveyoualittlelookaheadatthetopicswe'llbedoing
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there.Broadly,wedon'thavethemotionslanguageframedyet,butthetopicsare
sexualassaultoncampus,theChinesepoliticalandeconomicmodel,thenation's
infrastructure,centralbanks,andaffirmativeaction.We'regoingtobeatGeorge
WashingtonUniversitydebatingtheuseofsmartdrugsandwe'regoingtobeat
NorthwesternLawSchooldebatingprosecutorialabuse.Wewillhavethefulllineupset
bytheendofthemonthandyoucangetitbyvisitingourwebsiteiq2US.org.

19:29:41

Youcanbuyticketsthere.Youcanalsosignupforoureblastand,again,thisdebate
andallofourdebates,we'renowatIthink107sincewestarted,areallavailableviaour
app,whichyoucandownloadfromtheApplestoreandfromtheGooglePlay
store.Okay.Theresultsareallinnow.Again,themotionisthis:ContainmentisNot
Enough:ISISMustBeDefeated.Wehadteamsarguingforandagainst.Youvoted
twice.Again,theteamwhosenumberschangedthemostbetweenthefirstandthe
secondvotewillbedeclaredourwinner.

Let'slookatthepreliminaryvote.OnthemotionContainmentisNotEnough:ISISMust
BeDefeatedbeforeyouhardthearguments52percentofyouagreed,27percentwere
against,21percentwereundecided.Thosearethefirstresults.Remember,again,it's
goingtobethedifference.Let'slookatthesecondvote.OnContainmentisNot
Enough:ISISMustBeDefeatedtheteamarguingforthemotiontheirsecondvote32
percent.

19:30:39

Theywentfrom52percentto32percent.Theylost20percentagepoints.Team
arguingagainsttheirfirstvotewas27percent,second59percent.Theywentup32
percentagepoints.

[applause]

Theteamarguingagainstthemotiondeclaredourwinner.Ourcongratulationsto
them.Thankyoufromme,JonDonvanandIntelligenceSquaredU.S.We'llseeyounext
time.

19:31:00

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