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ACH,StepByStepTheOpenSourceAnalysisofCompetingHypothesesProject

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ACH,StepByStep
FromTheOpenSourceAnalysisofCompetingHypothesesProject
ThebelowstepsareforallACHpractitioners,whetheryou'reusingpencilandpaperorasoftwaretool.ManyWebapps
arebuiltwiththeexpectationthatuserswillmakeuptheirownrulesandusagepatterns.However,ACHwascreated
specificallytoguideresearchersthroughastructuredthoughtprocess.ToinsureyougetthemostfromACH,wesuggest
youfollowthesestepsclosely.ForamoredetailedexplanationofhowtousetheWebapplication,seetheUsermanual.
1.Definethequestion
Makesurethateveryoneinvolvedintheprocesshasasolidunderstandingofthespecificquestiontobeanswered.
2.Identifythepossiblehypotheses
Yourhypothesesshouldbemutuallyexclusivethatis,ifanyoneofyourhypothesesistrue,allothersmustbefalse.
Adheringtothisrequirementwillhelpyoudiscovernewhypotheses.Forinstance,ifyoubeginwithtwoworking
hypotheses"PersonAcommittedthecrime,"and"PersonBcommittedthecrime"askyourselfifthesehypothesesare
mutuallyexclusive.Theyaren'tpersonsAandBcouldhavecommittedthecrimetogether.Therefore,youshouldalter
yourhypothesesandaddathirdone:
PersonAcommittedthecrimealone
PersonBcommittedthecrimealone
PersonsAandBcommittedthecrimetogether
Useagroupofanalystswithdifferentperspectivestobrainstormallpossiblehypotheses.Includethedeceptionhypothesis
whenappropriatetoensurethatyouhaveexhaustedallthepossibilities.Formoreinformationoncreatinghypotheses,see
theusermanual.
3.Makealistofevidenceandarguments(includingassumptionsandlogicaldeductions)forandagainsteach
hypothesis.
Remembertoincludeassumptions,logicaldeductions,andconclusionsfromotheranalysesanythingthataffectsyour
judgmentaboutthelikelihoodofanyhypothesis.Alsoincludetheabsenceofevidenceonewouldexpecttofindifa
hypothesisweretrue.Seetheusermanualformoredetails.
4.Prepareamatrixwiththehypothesesacrossthetopandtheevidence/argumentsdowntheside.
Workhorizontallyacrossthematrixtorateeachdataitem'sconsistencyorinconsistencywitheachhypothesis.Thereisan
optiontoalsoassesstheCredibilityofeachitemofevidencetodeterminehowmuchweightitshouldhaveintheanalysis.
Checkthediagnosticityoftheevidence.Anitemofevidenceisdiagnosticifithelpsyoudeterminethatanitemofevidence
orargumentshowsthatoneormorehypothesesmaybelesslikelythantheothers.
http://competinghypotheses.org/docs/ACH,_Step_By_Step

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Whenyou'redone,youshouldhavesomethinglikethis:

Inthisexample,Hypothesis1islookingprettyunlikely.(Butremember,thatdoesn'tnecessarilymeanthatHypothesis2is
correct.Ourgoalistorefutehypotheses,notprovethem.)
5.Reconsiderthehypotheses
Haveyoulearnedanythingthatmightsuggesttheyshouldbemodified?Checktheconsistencyofyourevidenceratings.
Discardevidencethathasnodiagnosticvaluebecauseitisconsistentwithallthehypotheses.Identifyanygapsinthe
evidenceandargumentsthatmayneedtobefilled.Deleteanyevidencethathasnodiagnosticvaluebecauseitisconsistent
withallthehypotheses.
6.ChecktheInconsistencyorWeightedInconsistencyScoreanddrawtentativeconclusionsabouttherelative
likelihoodofeachhypothesis.
Themostlikelyhypothesisistheonewiththelowestscore.Sorttheevidenceandargumentsbydiagnosticitytoidentify
thosefewitemsthataremostinfluentialindrivingyourconclusions.Considertheconsequencesforyouranalysisifanykey
itemofevidenceorargumentiswrong,misleading,orsubjecttoadifferentinterpretation?Sorttheevidencebytypeof
sourceandbealerttoanyindicationofpossibledeception.
7.CompareyourpersonalconclusionsabouttherelativelikelihoodofthehypotheseswiththeInconsistency
ScoreortheWeightedInconsistencyScoresgeneratedbythesoftware.
Iftheydiffer,figureoutwhyandmakeappropriateadjustments.SeeguidanceinthesectionsonInterpretingthe
InconsistencyScores.Solicitcriticalinputfromotheranalysts.Drawyourfinalconclusions.
8.Reportconclusions,discussingtherelativelikelihoodofallthehypotheses,notjustthemostlikelyone.
Includediscussionofthediagnosticevidenceorargumentsthatenabledyoutorejectordiscountthealternative
hypotheses.
9.Identifyindicatorsormilestonesforfutureobservationtomonitorwhetheroneormorehypothesesmightbe
changing.
Originalsource:ThePsychologyofIntelligenceAnalysisbyRichardsHeuer
Retrievedfrom"http://competinghypotheses.org/docs/ACH,_Step_By_Step"
"(M)ostanalysts...pickoutwhattheysuspectintuitivelyisthemostlikelyanswer,thenlookattheavailableinformationfrom
thepointofviewofwhetherornotitsupportsthisanswer.Iftheevidenceseemstosupportthefavoritehypothesis,
analystspatthemselvesonthebackandlooknofurther."
RichardsHeuer,ACHCreator
AboutTheProject/Contact
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