Discussion Week 1 Pad 520

From the case study, Case 1.3, compare and contrast the benefits of the influence diagram
and decision tree displayed in Figure C1.3. Explain why these two problem representations
are good examples of descriptive and normative decision theory.
An influence diagram is a simple visual representation of a decision problem. Influence diagrams
offer an intuitive way to identify and display the essential elements, including decisions,
uncertainties, and objectives, and how they influence each other. The influence diagram gives a
high-level conceptual view on which the analyst may build a detailed quantitative model.
Decision trees and the influence diagrams are complementary views of a decision problem:
Decision trees display the set of alternative values for each decision and chance variable as
branches coming out of each node. The influence diagram shows the dependencies among the
variables more clearly than the decision tree. The decision tree shows more details of possible
paths or scenarios as sequences of branches from left to right. But, this detail comes at a steep
price: First, you must treat all variables as discrete (a small number of alternatives) even if they
are actually continuous. Second, the number of nodes in a decision tree increases exponentially
with the number of decision and chance variables. Normative decision theory refers to a set of
logically consistent propositions that evaluate or prescribe action. One of the most important
features of normative policy analysis is that its propositions rest on disagreements about values
such as efficiency, equity, responsiveness, liberty and security . Descriptive decision theory,
refers to a set of logically consistent propositions that describe or explain action. Descriptive
theories, models, and conceptual frameworks originate for the most part in political science,
sociology, and economics. The main functions of these theories, models, and frameworks are to
explain, understand, and predict policies by identifying patterns of causality . In figure C1.3, the
influence diagram and decision tree are good examples of descriptive and normative decision
theory because they provide vital information that one would need. The decision tree shows how
it will have a financial impact. When the influence diagram shows what will have the major
impact. When utilizing both together it sends a powerful message that miles traveled has a big
factor when it comes to fatalities.
Refer to your first discussions answer and analyze the differences between monitoring and
evaluation in policy analysis. Provide at least one example to support your response.
Monitoring produces information about observed policy outcomes . When one is monitoring a
policy they are ensuring that the policy is being followed as written. This is the time to correct
any issues that is found. Evaluation methods are used to produce information about the value or
utility of observed policy outcomes and their contributions to policy performance . Evaluation
is to ensure that the policy written at hand is effective and relevant. If it is not this is
the time to make any adjustment.
Example: In C1.3, when monitoring a high traffic area, they will first test the areas
periodically at certain times of the year. What they will look for is how fast cars are

traveling on that particular street, how many accident happen on the street and how
many fatalities. This will then allow them to make a decision to adjust the speed limit
to lower the rate of accidents.
References:
Bringing clarity to difficult decisions. (2013). Retrieved April 12, 2015, from Lumina
Decision Systems: http://www.lumina.com/technology/influence-diagrams/
Dunn, W. N. (2012). In Public Policy Analysis, (5th ed.).Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson
Education, Inc

From the case studies, Case 1.1 and Case 1.2, discuss the strengths and limitations of using

multiple triangulation, also called critical multiplism. Provide at least one example to
support your answer.
According to Dunn, the advantage of critical multiplism over local positivism is the multiplism
provides a better approximation of what is true by employing procedures that triangulate from a
variety of perspectives on what is worth knowing and what is known about policies .
A disadvantage of multiplism lies in its costs. Triangulation among multiple disciplinary
perspectives, along with the use of multiple methods, measures, and data sources, involves tradeoffs and opportunity costs .
An example is: The Goeller scorecard (table c 1.1) shows the impacts of alternative
transportation systems. Some of the impacts involve transportation services used by member of
the community, whereas other involve impacts on low-income groups .
Table C 1.2 displays a spreadsheet used to evaluate the effects of the 55 mph speed limit. What
they discovered is that after implementing the 55 mph speed limit, it reduced fuel consumption
and caused a dramatic decline in traffic fatalities and injuries.
Propose two reasons argumentation mapping can help a policy maker become a critical
thinker. Provide at least two examples to support your response.
Policy relevant information provides taken for granted facts to support a policy clam. Policyrelevant information may be statistical data, experiment findings, expert testimony, common
sense, or political judgments. Policy arguments may lead to complex argument chains, trees, or

cycles .
Policy claim is the conclusion of a policy argument. There are four types of policy claims:
definitional, descriptive, evaluative, and ad vocative.
A warrant is a reason to support a policy claim. Warrants may be economic theories, ethical
principles, political ideas, authority, and so forth; most arguments have multiple warrants .
Reference:
Dunn, W. N. (2012).Public policy analysis. (5 ed.). Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson Education,
Inc.