1NC Econ

Turn They increase cloud computing, which hurts the environment

Schmidt 10 (Stephan Schmidt, writer for the Guardian, "The dark side of cloud computing:
soaring carbon emissions," The Guardian, 4-1-2010,
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2010/apr/30/cloud-computing-carbon-emissions,
al)
However, things turned out differently. Each day we generate more and more data
your digital footprint, so to speak, requires huge amounts of server space and
energy. A part of that digital footprint may be described as digital waste just think about all
the data that you have created online that you no longer use. Almost everything we do online
increases our carbon footprint. As a perverse example, Antivirus Company MacAffee reports
that the electricity needed just to transmit the trillions of spam e-mails sent every year is
equivalent to powering two million homes in the United States and generates the same amount
of greenhouse gas emissions as that produced by three million cars. According to a recent
Greenpeace report, Make IT Green: Cloud Computing and its Contribution to Climate Change,
the electricity consumed by cloud computing globally will increase from 632
billion kilowatt hours in 2007 to 1,963 billion kWh by 2020 and the associated CO2
equivalent emissions would reach 1,034 megatonnes.

Extinction and food insecurity 24 academic and professional bodies

for scientific, medical and engineering say we must stop emitting
carbon now
Carrington 7/20 (Damian Carrington, head of environment at the Guardian, "Act on climate
change now, top British institutions tell governments," The Guardian, 7-20-2015,
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jul/21/act-on-climate-change-now-topbritish-institutions-tell-governments, al)
The scientific evidence is now overwhelming that the climate is warming and that human
activity is largely responsible for this change through emissions of greenhouse gases.
Governments will meet in Paris in November and December this year to negotiate a legally
binding and universal agreement on tackling climate change. Any international policy response
to climate change must be rooted in the latest scientific evidence. This indicates that if we are to
have a reasonable chance of limiting global warming in this century to 2C relative to the preindustrial period, we must transition to a zero-carbon world by early in the second half of the
century. To achieve this transition, governments should demonstrate leadership by recognising
the risks climate change poses, embracing appropriate policy and technological responses, and
seizing the opportunities of low-carbon and climate-resilient growth. Risks. Climate change
poses risks to people and ecosystems by exacerbating existing economic, environmental,
geopolitical, health and societal threats, and generating new ones. These risks increase
disproportionately as the temperature increases. Many systems are already at risk from climate
change. A rise of 2C above pre-industrial levels would lead to further increased risk from
extreme weather and would place more ecosystems and cultures in significant danger. At or
above 4C, the risks include substantial species extinction, global and regional food insecurity,
and fundamental changes to human activities that today are taken for granted.

Tech sector is growing

Grisham 2/10 (Preston Grisham, United States Tech Industry Employs 6.5 Million in
2014, February 10th, 2015, https://www.comptia.org/about-us/newsroom/pressreleases/2015/02/10/united-states-tech-industry-employs-6.5-million-in-2014)
Washington, D.C., February 10, 2015 The U.S. tech industry added 129,600 net jobs
between 2013 and 2014, for a total of nearly 6.5 million jobs in the U.S., according to
Cyberstates 2015: The Definitive State-by-State Analysis of the U.S. Tech Industry published by
CompTIA. The report represents a comprehensive look at tech employment, wages, and other
key economic factors nationally and state-by-state, covering all 50 states, the District of
Columbia, and Puerto Rico. This years edition shows that tech industry jobs account
for 5.7 percent of the entire private sector workforce. Tech industry employment
grew at the same rate as the overall private sector, 2 percent, between 2013-2014.
Growth was led by the IT services sector which added 63,300 jobs between 2013 and 2014
and the R&D, testing, and engineering services sector that added 50,700 jobs. The U.S. tech
industry continues to make significant contributions to our economy, said Todd
Thibodeaux, president and CEO, CompTIA. The tech industry accounts for 7.1 percent
of the overall U.S. GDP and 11.4 percent of the total U.S. private sector payroll.
With annual average wages that are more than double that of the private sector,
we should be doing all we can to encourage the growth and vitality of our nations
tech industry.

Europe biotechnology industry is inevitable maintains European

tech competition
Van Leeuwen 6/30 (Patrick; Coordinator Public Affairs and Communications Forestry

House Rue du Luxembourg 66 B-1000 Brussels Belgium - EU green light for 120 million new
investments in circular bioeconomy projects//RD)
The European Commission releases 50 million of EU public money via the Bio-based
Industries Joint Undertaking (BBI JU) leveraging 70 million of investments from industry into
projects to boost the European bioeconomy. The Bio-based Industries Joint Undertaking, a
public-private partnership between the EU and the Bio-based Industries Consortium (BIC), has
approved the funding of 10 projects totalling 120 million to boost the EU capacity
to stimulate growth and jobs via a more circular, low carbon and sustainable
bioeconomy. The BBI is a 3.7 billion innovative partnership that was officially launched in July
2014. Driven by a unique cross sector industry grouping, the BBI focuses on using
Europe's biomass and wastes to make high value products and bring them to market.
Advanced biorefineries and innovative technologies are at the heart of this process, converting
renewable resources into sustainable bio-based chemicals, materials and fuels, allowing the
EU to reduce its dependence on finite fossil resources. In the midst of political
discussions on developing an ambitious circular economy for Europe, Marcel Wubbolts,
Chairman of the Bio-based Industries Consortium and Chief Technology Officer of Royal DSM
said: "Today we celebrate the translation of the vision of the Bio-based Industries Consortium
into concrete projects that will help Europe develop a future economic model that is fully
sustainable. The bioeconomy is global and these investments ensure that Europe
remains a sustainable, competitive and innovative region." The 7 funded research
projects will tackle specific value chain challenges such as sustainability, technology and
competitiveness. The 2 demonstration projects will demonstrate the technological and
economic viability of biorefinery systems and processes for making chemicals from wood, and
for making high value products for detergents, personal care, paints and coatings and
composites from sugar beet pulp. The industrial scale flagship project will make use of cardoon,
an under-utilised oil crop grown on arid and marginal lands, to extract vegetable oils to be

further converted into bio-based products (bio-lubricants, cosmetics, bio-plastics). By- and coproducts from the process will also be valorised for energy, feed for animals and added value
chemical production. Dirk Carrez, Executive Director of the Bio-based Industries Consortium
said: "Today we see the first leverage effect of the BBI JU: 50 million of EU public
money have raised 70 million in private investments. And this is only the beginning.
No doubt that the BBI, and the bioeconomy in general, will play an important role in the
Juncker investment plan and in enabling the European circular economy." On 26 June, the BBI
JU officially announced at its Info Day the 200 million call for proposals for 2015. 100
million have already been allocated to first-of-a-kind biorefineries on 19 May. The
BBI partners The European Commission is the public partner in the BBI. It supports it with a
contribution of 975 million from Horizon 2020, the Framework Programme for Research and
Innovation from 2014 to 2020. The activities of the BBI complement the activities funded under
Horizon 2020 and seek to establish synergies where relevant. The Bio-based Industries
Consortium (BIC) is the industrial partner in the PPP. It is made of a unique mix of
sectors including agriculture, agro-food, biotechnology / technology providers,
forestry/pulp and paper, chemicals and energy. BIC was established in 2012 to
collectively represent the private sector in the BBI. To date, BIC has close to 80 full industrial
members (large, SMEs, clusters) and about 150 associate members (RTOs, universities,
associations, technology platforms). BIC supports the BBI with a contribution of 2.7 billion,
of which 975 million is used to support research and innovation activities, and
another 1.7 is provided in the form of additional activities.

International norms maintain economic stability

***Zero empirical data supports their theory the only financial crisis of the new liberal order
experienced zero uptick in violence or challenges to the central factions governed by the US that
check inter-state violence they have no theoretical foundation for proving causality
Barnett, 9 senior managing director of Enterra Solutions LLC (Thomas, The New Rules:
Security Remains Stable Amid Financial Crisis, 25 August 2009, http://www.aprodex.com/thenew-rules--security-remains-stable-amid-financial-crisis-398-bl.aspx)
When the global financial crisis struck roughly a year ago, the blogosphere was ablaze with all sorts of scary
predictions of, and commentary regarding, ensuing conflict and wars -- a rerun of the Great Depression leading to world
war, as it were. Now, as global economic news brightens and recovery -- surprisingly led by China and emerging markets -- is the
talk of the day, it's interesting to look back over the past year and realize how globalization's first truly worldwide

recession has had virtually no impact whatsoever on the international security landscape. None of the more
than three-dozen ongoing conflicts listed by GlobalSecurity.org can be clearly attributed to the global
recession. Indeed, the last new entry (civil conflict between Hamas and Fatah in the Palestine) predates the
economic crisis by a year, and three quarters of the chronic struggles began in the last century. Ditto for the 15 lowintensity conflicts listed by Wikipedia (where the latest entry is the Mexican "drug war" begun in 2006). Certainly, the RussiaGeorgia conflict last August was specifically timed, but by most accounts the opening ceremony of the Beijing Olympics was the most
important external trigger (followed by the U.S. presidential campaign) for that sudden spike in an almost two-decade long struggle
between Georgia and its two breakaway regions. Looking over the various databases, then, we see a most familiar

picture: the usual mix of civil conflicts, insurgencies, and liberation-themed terrorist movements.
Besides the recent Russia-Georgia dust-up, the only two potential state-on-state wars (North v. South Korea, Israel v.
Iran) are both tied to one side acquiring a nuclear weapon capacity -- a process wholly unrelated to global economic
trends. And with the United States effectively tied down by its two ongoing major interventions (Iraq and Afghanistan-bleedinginto-Pakistan), our involvement elsewhere around the planet has been quite modest, both leading up to and
following the onset of the economic crisis: e.g., the usual counter-drug efforts in Latin America, the usual military exercises
with allies across Asia, mixing it up with pirates off Somalia's coast). Everywhere else we find serious instability we pretty much let it
burn, occasionally pressing the Chinese -- unsuccessfully -- to do something. Our new Africa Command, for example, hasn't led us to
anything beyond advising and training local forces. So, to sum up: No significant uptick in mass violence or
unrest (remember the smattering of urban riots last year in places like Greece, Moldova and Latvia?); The usual frequency
maintained in civil conflicts (in all the usual places); Not a single state-on-state war directly caused (and no great-power-on-great-

power crises even triggered); No great improvement or disruption in great-power cooperation regarding the
emergence of new nuclear powers (despite all that diplomacy); A modest scaling back of international policing efforts by the
system's acknowledged Leviathan power (inevitable given the strain); and No serious efforts by any rising great

power to challenge that Leviathan or supplant its role. (The worst things we can cite are Moscow's occasional
deployments of strategic assets to the Western hemisphere and its weak efforts to outbid the United States on basing rights in
Kyrgyzstan; but the best include China and India stepping up their aid and investments in Afghanistan and Iraq.) Sure, we've finally
seen global defense spending surpass the previous world record set in the late 1980s, but even that's likely to wane given the stress
on public budgets created by all this unprecedented "stimulus" spending. If anything, the friendly cooperation on such

stimulus packaging was the most notable great-power dynamic caused by the crisis. Can we say that
the world has suffered a distinct shift to political radicalism as a result of the economic crisis? Indeed, no. The world's major
economies remain governed by center-left or center-right political factions that remain decidedly friendly
to both markets and trade. In the short run, there were attempts across the board to insulate economies from immediate damage
(in effect, as much protectionism as allowed under current trade rules), but there was no great slide into "trade wars." Instead, the
World Trade Organization is functioning as it was designed to function, and regional efforts toward free-trade agreements have not
slowed. Can we say Islamic radicalism was inflamed by the economic crisis? If it was, that shift was clearly overwhelmed by the
Islamic world's growing disenchantment with the brutality displayed by violent extremist groups such as al-Qaida. And looking
forward, austere economic times are just as likely to breed connecting evangelicalism as disconnecting fundamentalism. At the end
of the day, the economic crisis did not prove to be sufficiently frightening to provoke major economies into establishing global
regulatory schemes, even as it has sparked a spirited -- and much needed, as I argued last week -- discussion of the continuing
viability of the U.S. dollar as the world's primary reserve currency. Naturally, plenty of experts and pundits have attached great
significance to this debate, seeing in it the beginning of "economic warfare" and the like between "fading" America and "rising"
China. And yet, in a world of globally integrated production chains and interconnected financial markets, such "diverging interests"
hardly constitute signposts for wars up ahead. Frankly, I don't welcome a world in which America's fiscal profligacy goes
undisciplined, so bring it on -- please! Add it all up and it's fair to say that this global financial crisis has proven the great

resilience of America's post-World War II international liberal trade order.

2NC Econ

Cloud Computing Turn

Increased cloud computing contributes to ghg emissions

Greenpeace 11 (non-governmental environmental organization with offices in over forty

countries, How dirty is your data?: A Look at the Energy Choices That Power Cloud
Computing, Greenpeace International, April 2011,
http://www.greenpeace.org/international/Global/international/publications/climate/2011/Coo
l%20IT/dirty-data-report-greenpeace.pdf/, al)
Data centres to house the explosion of virtual information currently consume 1.5-2% of all
global electricity; this is growing at a rate of 12% a year. The IT industry points to cloud
computing as the new, green model for our IT infrastructure needs, but few companies provide
data that would allow us to objectively evaluate these claims. The technologies of the 21st
century are still largely powered by the dirty coal power of the past, with over half of the
companies rated herein relying on coal for between 50% and 80% of their energy needs. IT
innovations have the potential to cut greenhouse gas emissions across all sectors of the
economy, but ITs own growing demand for dirty energy remains largely unaddressed by the
worlds biggest IT brands. There is a lack of transparency across the industry about ITs own
greenhouse gas footprint and a need to open up the books on its energy footprint. In emerging
markets, where there is limited reliable grid electricity, there is a tremendous opportunity for
telecom operators to show leadership by investing in renewable energy, but many are relying on
heavily polluting diesel generators to fuel their growth. Data centre clusters (Google, Facebook,
Apple) are cropping up in places like North Carolina and the US Midwest, where cheap and
dirty coal-powered electricity is abundant. IT companies are failing to prioritise access to clean
and renewable energy in their infrastructure siting decisions. Of the 10 brands graded,
Akamai, a global content distribution network, earned top-of-the-class recognition for
transparency; Yahoo! had the strongest infrastructure siting policy; Google & IBM
demonstrated the most comprehensive overall approach to reduce its carbon footprint to date.
Warming causes the sixth mass extinction
Zielinski 4/30 (Sarah Zielinski, award-winning science writer and editor, "Climate Change
Will Accelerate Earth's Sixth Mass Extinction," Smithsonian, 4-30-2015,
http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/climate-change-will-accelerate-earths-sixthmass-extinction-180955138/?no-ist, al)
Climate change is accelerating species loss on Earth , and by the end of this century, as many as one in six
species could be at risk of extinction. But while these effects are being seen around the world, the threat is much higher
in certain sensitive regions, according to two new comprehensive studies. The planet is experiencing a new wave of
die-offs driven by factors such as habitat loss, the introduction of exotic invaders and rapid
changes to our climate. Some people have called the phenomenon the sixth mass extinction, on
par with the catastrophic demise of the large dinosaurs 65 million years ago. To try and combat the
declines, scientists have been racing to make predictions about which species are most likely to go extinct, along with when and
where it will happen, sometimes with widely varying results.

Tech Sector Boom Now

Tech spending increasing now despite projections

Seitz 1/30/15

(Patrick, 1/30/15, Investors Business Daily, Software apps to continue dominating cloud
sales, http://news.investors.com/technology-click/013015-736967-software-as-a-service-getslions-share-of-public-cloud-revenue.htm, 7/13/15, SM)
Public cloud computing services are a bright spot in the otherwise stagnant corporate information technology market, and softwareas-a-service (SaaS) vendors are seen benefiting disproportionately in the years ahead. Public cloud spending

reached $67 billion in 2014 and is expected to hit $113 billion in 2018 , Technology Business
Research said in a report Wednesday. "While the vast majority of IT companies remain plagued by low-single-digit revenue growth
rates at best, investments in public cloud from software-centric vendors such as

Microsoft and SAP are moving the corporate needle," TBR analyst Jillian Mirandi said in a
statement. Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) is pushing the cloud development platform Azure and migrating Office customers to the
cloud-based Office 365. SAP (NYSE:SAP) got a late start to the public cloud but has acquired SuccessFactors and Ariba to accelerate
its efforts. The second half of 2014 was marked by partnerships and integration of services from different vendors in the softwareas-a-service sector. SaaS vendors like Salesforce.com (NYSE:CRM) and Workday (NYSE:WDAY) have also

added cloud-based analytics applications, which have increased their appeal to

business users, Mirandi said. Software-as-a-service accounted for 62% of public cloud
spending last year, and the percentage will decline only modestly in the years ahead. Technology Business Research
estimates that SaaS will be 59.5% of public cloud spending in 2018. Infrastructure-as-a-service (IaaS)is the
second-largest category of public cloud spending, at 28.5% in 2014, but climbing to
30.5% in 2018. IaaS vendors include Amazon.com's (NASDAQ:AMZN) Amazon Web Services, Microsoft and Google
(NASDAQ:GOOGL). Platform-as-a-service (PaaS) is the third category, accounting for 9.5% of spending last year and projected to
be 10% in 2018, TBR says. PaaS vendors include Google, Microsoft and Salesforce.com.

Tech industry spending high now

Columbus 14

(Louis, 2/24/14, Forbes, The Best Cloud Computing Companies And CEOs To Work For In
2014, http://www.forbes.com/sites/louiscolumbus/2014/02/24/the-best-cloud-computingcompanies-and-ceos-to-work-for-in-2014/, 7/17/15, SM)
IT decision makers spending on security technologies will increase 46% in 2015, with cloud
computing increasing 42% and business analytics investments up 38%. . Enterprise

investments in storage will increase 36%, and for wireless & mobile, 35%. Cloud computing initiatives are the most important
project for the majority of IT departments today (16%) and are expected to cause the most disruption in the future. IDG predicts the
majority of cloud computings disruption will be focused on improving service and generating new revenue streams. These and
other key take-aways are from recent IDG Enterprise research titled Computerworld Forecast Study 2015. The goal of the study was
to determine IT priorities for 2015 in areas such as spending, staffing and technology. Computerworld spoke with 194 respondents,
55% of which are from the executive IT roles. 19% from mid-level IT, 16% in IT professional roles and 7% in business management.
You can find the results and methodology of the study here. Additional key take-aways from the study include: Enterprises are
predicting they will increase their spending on security technologies by 46%, cloud computing by 42% with the greatest

growth in enterprises with over 1,000 employees (52% ), 38% in business analytics, 36% for storage

solutions and 35% for wireless & mobile. The following graphic provides an overview of the top five tech spending increases in 2015:

Tech spending is through the roof now

Holland 1/26 (Simon Holland, Marketing technology industry set for explosive revenue
gains, 1/26/15 http://www.marketingtechnews.net/news/2015/jan/26/marketing-technologyindustry-set-explosive-revenue-gains/)
Companies investing in marketing technology will continue to raise their budgets ,
with global vendor revenue forecasted to touch $32.2 billion by 2018. The
projections, part of an IDC webinar on the marketing software revolution, reveal a compound annual
growth rate (CAGR) of 12.4% and total spend of $130 billion across the five-year stretch
between 2014 and 2015. Customer relationship management software is a sizable
growth sector of marketing, with projections from IDCs software tracker predicting CRM application

revenue will reach $31.7 billion by 2018, a CAGR of 6.9%. A MaaS revival Most marketing solutions are available in
the cloud, but some large businesses are acquiring these point solutions, investing in them and then turning them into a marketing
as a service platform. The MaaS, an industry segment bundling a tech platform, creative services and the IT services to run it, is
making a comeback after economic uncertainty stunted investment in this area for so many years. IDCs view on marketing as a
service platforms is that it will blend global media and marketing tech expenditure. There may have been little or no budget being
attributed to this type of product in 2014, but IDC has forecasted increases in the run up to 2018.

IDC
that puts spend from digital marketing leaders at $14 million while achievers and
contenders set aside $4.2 million and $3.1 million respectively .
Getting the investment in early can set a company up for a similar or larger return later down the road, a fact demonstrated by

The tech sector is growing nowemployment

Snyder 2/5 (Bill Snyder, The best jobs are in tech, and so is the job growth, Febuary 5th,
2015, http://www.infoworld.com/article/2879051/it-careers/the-best-jobs-are-in-tech-and-sois-the-job-growth.html)
In 2014, IT employment grew by 2.4 percent. Although that doesnt sound like
much, it represents more than 100,000 jobs. If the projections by CompTIA and others
hold up, the economy will add even more this year. Tech dominates the best jobs in
America A separate report by Glassdoor, a large job board that includes employee-written
reviews of companies and top managers, singled out 25 of the best jobs in America, and 10 of
those were in IT. Judged by a combination of factors -- including earnings potential, career
opportunities, and the number of current job listings -- the highest-rated tech job was software
engineer, with an average base salary of $98,074. In the last three months, employers have
posted 104,828 openings for software engineers and developers on the Glassdoor job site,
though many are no longer current. (Glassdoor combines the titles of software developers and
software engineers, so we don't know how many of those positions were just for engineers.) The
highest-paid tech occupation listed on Glassdoor is solutions architect, with an average base pay
of $121,657. Looked at more broadly, the hottest tech occupation in the United States last year
was Web developer, for which available jobs grew by 4 percent to a total of 235,043 jobs -- a
substantial chunk of the 4.88 million employed tech workers, according to the U.S. Bureau of
Labor Statistics. As for tech support, jobs in that occupation increased by 2.5 percent to
853,256, which is a bit more than overall tech job growth of 2.4 percent. Taken together,
the two new reports provide more evidence that we can expect at least another year of
buoyant employment prospects in IT -- and give rough guidelines of the skills you need to
get a great job and the potential employers you might contact. Hiring across the economy Most
striking is the shift in employer attitudes over the last year or two, says Tim Herbert,
CompTIAs vice president of research. Theres less concern about the bottom dropping
out, he said. Even worst-case estimates by employers are not at all bad, he adds. The
survey found that 43 percent of the companies say they are understaffed, and 68 percent say
they expect filling those positions will be challenging or very challenging. If thats the case,
supply and demand should push salaries even higher. One of the most positive
trends in last years employment picture is the broad wave of IT hiring stretching
across different sectors of the economy. Companies that posted the largest number of
online ads for IT-related jobs were Accenture, Deloitte, Oracle, General Dynamics, Amazon.com,
JP Morgan, United Health, and Best Buy, according to Burning Glass Technologies Labor
Insights, which tracks online advertising. Information technology now pervades the
entire economy, says CompTIAs Herbert. Whats more, technologies like cloud
computing and software as a service are cheap enough and stable enough for small
and medium-sized businesses to adopt, which in turn creates even more job
opportunities, he notes.

Econ Collapse No War

Aggregate data proves interstate violence doesnt result from economic decline
Drezner, 12 --- The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University (October 2012,
Daniel W., The Irony of Global Economic Governance: The System Worked,
www.globaleconomicgovernance.org/wp-content/uploads/IR-Colloquium-MT12-Week-5_TheIrony-of-Global-Economic-Governance.pdf)
The final outcome addresses a dog that hasnt barked: the effect of the Great Recession on
cross-border conflict and violence. During the initial stages of the crisis, multiple analysts
asserted that the financial crisis would lead states to increase their use of force as
a tool for staying in power.37 Whether through greater internal repression, diversionary wars, arms races, or a
ratcheting up of great power conflict, there were genuine concerns that the global economic
downturn would lead to an increase in conflict . Violence in the Middle East, border disputes in the South
China Sea, and even the disruptions of the Occupy movement fuel impressions of surge in global public disorder.

The aggregate data suggests otherwise, however. The Institute for Economics and
Peace has constructed a Global Peace Index annually since 2007. A key
conclusion they draw from the 2012 report is that The average level of
peacefulness in 2012 is approximately the same as it was in 2007.38 Interstate
violence in particular has declined since the start of the financial crisis as have military
expenditures in most sampled countries. Other studies confirm that the Great Recession has not
triggered any increase in violent conflict ; the secular decline in violence that started with the end of the Cold
War has not been reversed.39 Rogers Brubaker concludes, the crisis has not to date generated
the surge in protectionist nationalism or ethnic exclusion that might have been expected.40
None of these data suggest that the global economy is operating swimmingly. Growth remains unbalanced and fragile, and has
clearly slowed in 2012. Transnational capital flows remain depressed compared to pre-crisis levels, primarily due to a drying up of
cross-border interbank lending in Europe. Currency volatility remains an ongoing concern. Compared to the aftermath of other
postwar recessions, growth in output, investment, and employment in the developed world have all lagged behind. But the Great
Recession is not like other postwar recessions in either scope or kind; expecting a standard V-shaped recovery was unreasonable.

One financial analyst characterized the post-2008 global economy as in a state of

contained depression.41 The key word is contained, however. Given the severity, reach and
depth of the 2008 financial crisis, the proper comparison is with Great
Depression. And by that standard, the outcome variables look impressive. As Carmen

Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff concluded in This Time is Different: that its macroeconomic outcome has been only the most severe
global recession since World War II and not even worse must be regarded as fortunate.42

Most rigorous historical analysis proves

Miller, 2K economist, adjunct professor in the University of Ottawas Faculty of
Administration, consultant on international development issues, former Executive Director and
Senior Economist at the World Bank, (Morris, Poverty as a cause of wars?, Winter,
Interdisciplinary Science Reviews, Vol. 25, Iss. 4, p. Proquest)
Perhaps one should ask, as some scholars do, whether it is not poverty as such but some dramatic event or sequence of such
events leading to the exacerbation of poverty that is the factor that contributes in a significant way to the denouement of war.
This calls for addressing the question: do

wars spring from a popular reaction to an economic crisis that

exacerbates poverty and/or from a heightened awareness of the poor of the wide and growing
disparities in wealth and incomes that diminishes their tolerance to poverty? It seems reasonable to
believe that a powerful "shock" factor might act as a catalyst for a violent reaction on the part of the people or on the part of the
political leadership.

The leadership, finding that this sudden adverse economic and social impact
destabilizing, would possibly be tempted to seek a diversion by finding or, if need be,
fabricating an enemy and setting in train the process leading to war. There would not appear
to be any merit in this hypothesis according to a study undertaken by Minxin Pei and Ariel
Adesnik of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. After studying 93 episodes of
economic crisis in 22 countries in Latin America and Asia in the years since World War II
they concluded that Much of the conventional wisdom about the political impact of economic

crises may be wrong ..The severity of economic crisis - as measured in terms of inflation
and negative growth bore no relationship to the collapse of regimes.(or, in democratic
states, rarely) to an outbreak of violenceIn the cases of dictatorships and semi-democracies,
the ruling elites responded to crises by increasing repression (thereby using one form of
violence to abort another.)