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ABSTRACT
ARTICLE HISTORY
Urban trafc is embedded in and fundamentally shaped by the spatial pattern of urban land use, such as
city size, density, extent of polycentricity, and the relationship between employment and residential
locations. Previous evidence, mainly from European and American cities, suggests that the duration of
commute trips increases with city size and the spatial separation between jobs and housing. On the other
hand, the inuences of density and polycentricity are less clear. Using data from 164 cities in China, this
study empirically analyzes the relationship between city average commute duration and multiple
dimensions of urban spatial structure. Controlling for economic, demographic, and infrastructure
characteristics, we nd that commute duration correlates positively with city size and jobshousing
separation but negatively with density and polycentricity. As one of the earliest studies on commute cost
in the rapidly urbanizing and motorizing Chinese cities, this study can help Chinese decision makers
improve urban economic and environmental efciency through spatial planning and policy making.
Specically, compact, mixed-use, and polycentric spatial development may ease the burden of commute,
and thus substitute for unnecessary infrastructure investment and energy consumption during a period of
rapid urban expansion in China.
1. Introduction
Urban trafc is embedded in and fundamentally shaped by
the spatial pattern of urban land use, such as city size, density, extent of polycentricity, and the relationship between
employment and residential locations. Trafc congestion,
particularly during peak commuting hours, is perhaps the
most economically and environmentally costly among all
problems of urban transportation. Previous evidence, mainly
from European and American cities, suggests that the duration of commute trips increases with city size (e.g., Schwanen, 2002; Schwanen, Dieleman, & Dijst, 2004; Lee,
Gordon, Richardson, & Moore, 2009) and the spatial separation between jobs and housing (e.g., Levinson & Kumar,
1994; Levinson, 1998; Sultana, 2002; Modarres, 2011). On
the other hand, the inuence of density and polycentricity
are less clear. However, there is much less research available
of other cities around the world.
As the largest developing country, China has experienced rapid economic and income growth since late 1970s.
The rise of China as a global economic heavyweight is
accompanied by an unprecedented urbanization in human
historythe proportion of population living in cities
increased from less than 20% in 1980 to more than half
today. Dramatic changes in urban transportation have
occurred along with the rise in urbanization. Residents in
Chinese cities are traveling longer distances, making more
trips, and relying more on fossil-fuel-based modes.
2. Literature review
Passenger commute trips have long been a focus in urban
transportation research due to their direct relation to labor productivity, contribution to peak hour congestion, and impact on
urban quality of life. Theoretical hypotheses and empirical evidence on the relationship between commute duration and characteristics of urban spatial structure have mainly touched upon
four dimensions of urban space: city size, density (and sprawl),
degree of polycentricity, and the balance (mixture) between
jobs and housing.
It can be complicated to derive the effect of city population
size on commute time theoretically (e.g., Gordon, Kumar, &
Richardson, 1989a), as the growth of city population typically
involves the development of polycentricity and simultaneous
changes in travel distance, speed, and traveler characteristics
(e.g., income level). Without controlling the internal structure
of a city, what one observes is a net result of all forces, which
can be unclear (e.g., Gordon, Kumar, & Richardson, 1989b).
However, with reasonable controls of these factors, recent
empirical studies suggest that commute time tends to be longer
for cities with larger populations (Schwanen, 2002; Schwanen
et al., 2004; Lee et al., 2009).
Urban density has at least two opposite effects on commute
time. Higher density means an overall reduction in travel distance, so compact cities may reduce commute time (Schwanen,
2002; Lee et al., 2009). However, density may induce congestion, which makes commutes slower (Levinson & Kumar, 1997;
Loo & Chow, 2011a; Melia, Parkhurst, & Barton, 2011; Yang
et al., 2012). The combined result of the two effects may vary
when different density measures (e.g., residential density,
employment density in commercial vs. industrial sectors) are
considered in isolation (Gordon et al., 1989a). Overall, recent
studies have shown that it is difcult to draw a universal conclusion between urban density and commute time (Levinson &
Kumar, 1997; Schwanen et al., 2004; Antipova, Wang, &
Wilmot, 2011; Grunfelder & Nielsen, 2012).
In the past two decades, the spatial relationship between residential and employment locations received much attention of
scholars in the western countries and in China. Many studies
support the intuition that a balance (match) between jobs and
housing in subareas of a city will result in a shorter commute
(Levinson & Kumar, 1994; Levinson, 1998; Sultana, 2002;
Wang & Chai, 2009; Sun, Li, Song, & Wu, 2010; Zhao, Lu, &
Roo, 2011; Modarres, 2011; Loo & Chow, 2011b; Zhao, 2013).
Nevertheless, from the perspective of policy prescriptions,
scholars have long been debating about the cost of realizing
jobshousing balance and the mechanism and potential of
reducing wasteful commutes (Giuliano, 1991; Giuliano &
Small, 1993; Wachs, Taylor, Levine, & One, 1993; Peng, 1997;
Levine, 1998; Wang, 2000; Antipova, et al. 2011).
Unlike jobshousing balance, researchers have not reached
an agreement about whether spatial polycentricity in urban
employment will shorten commute trips. Gordons colocation
hypothesis (Gordon & Wong, 1985) argues that multiple centers of employment may reduce commute distance and the
639
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B. SUN ET AL.
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The two dominant modes of public transit are bus and rail in Chinese cities. We
reported results including only the bus mode because only 12 cities in our sample had rail transit in 2010 and also because we consider buses per ten thousand
people as a general indicator of transit infrastructure/service availability (even
cities with rail transit still rely heavily on bus service). In fact, we did try by adding a rail transit dummy variable, but the results across model specications suggested insignicant effect of rail transit and fairly consistent estimated
coefcients of other variables (results available upon request). Thus we chose to
report the results without controlling for rail transit availability.
641
Description
Mean
Std. dev.
Min
Max
3.155
13.657
9.193
0.062
0.270
0.206
0.299
6.334
0.211
3.981
1.888
10.431
10.040
50.450
0.124
0.187
0.896
0.293
0.056
0.234
0.181
0.244
3.700
0.152
0.473
0.656
0.222
0.841
13.496
0.059
2.705
11.776
8.221
0
0
0
0
0
0
6.027
0.844
9.967
7.640
20.480
0.029
3.666
16.616
10.076
0.237
1.163
0.983
1.294
11.737
0.542
2.084
4.636
11.104
12.172
89.720
0.550
Note. When calculating D and P1P5, we add one to the original index values before taking the natural logs, as cities with only one district have original index values of zero.
year 2010. The sample cities come from 26 out of the 31 provincial-level jurisdictions in China, missing data from Shanghai, Shaanxi Province, and the remote provinces of Xizang
(Tibet), Qinghai, and Hainan. Figure 1 maps the 164 sample
COMMUTE D b0 C b1 POP C b2 POPD C b3 D
cities, located across most of the well-populated areas in Mainland China. The dependent variable COMMUTE is obtained
C b4 P C b5 ROAD C b6 BUS
from the 2010 Urban Household Survey. Other data come
C b7 WAGE C b8 EDU C b9 TERTIARY from ofcial statistics in year 2010 (i.e., 2010 Population Census, 2011 Urban Statistical Yearbook), except D and P, which
C b10 GOV C error
are calculated based on the Second Economic Census in 2008.
model used:
5. Results
Table 2 presents the core regression results. Models 1
through 5 correspond to the alternative polycentricity
642
B. SUN ET AL.
POP
POPD
D
P
ROAD
BUS
WAGE
EDU
TERTIARY
GOV
Constant
F
Adj. R2
p (White test)
Max VIF
Model 1
Model 2
Model 3
Model 4
Model 5
0.094 (0.019)
0.110 (0.050)
0.406 (0.236)
0.111 (0.050)
0.073 (0.030)
0.047 (0.025)
0.069 (0.061)
0.042 (0.019)
0.001 (0.001)
0.563 (0.203)
1.379 (0.728)
15.09
0.464
0.208
1.74
0.094 (0.019)
0.111 (0.050)
0.395 (0.237)
0.134 (0.064)
0.073 (0.030)
0.047 (0.025)
0.069 (0.061)
0.043 (0.019)
0.001 (0.001)
0.562 (0.203)
1.368 (0.729)
14.97
0.461
0.222
1.74
0.096 (0.019)
0.113 (0.050)
0.391 (0.238)
0.095 (0.049)
0.074 (0.030)
0.046 (0.025)
0.068 (0.061)
0.044 (0.019)
0.001 (0.001)
0.566 (0.204)
1.348 (0.731)
14.86
0.460
0.243
1.75
0.103 (0.021)
0.111 (0.051)
0.458 (0.268)
0.006 (0.004)
0.071 (0.030)
0.045 (0.025)
0.063 (0.061)
0.043 (0.019)
0.001 (0.001)
0.600 (0.205)
1.334 (0.735)
14.52
0.454
0.234
1.94
0.097 (0.019)
0.105 (0.050)
0.447 (0.245)
0.172 (0.084)
0.068 (0.030)
0.047 (0.025)
0.066 (0.061)
0.041 (0.019)
0.001 (0.001)
0.576 (0.203)
1.334 (0.730)
14.93
0.461
0.179
1.79
indexes used (P1 through P5). All models pass the heteroskedasticity (White) test and none suffers serious multicollinearity problem, as indicated by the maximum variance
ination factor (VIF) values. The model results are quite
stable across the alternative polycentricity indexes used.
Consistent with our conceptual understanding of the relationship between urban trafc and spatial structure, city size and
other spatial structure variables indeed correlate with average
urban commute duration. All else equal, a 1% increase in urban
population size (POP) is related to about 0.1% longer commute.
This estimate is similar to what Lee et al. (2009) nd in the United
States and also shares the same sign with the coefcients estimated by Gordon et al. (1989a) and Schwanen (2002). Average
population density (POPD) negatively correlates with commute
duration, suggesting that densitys distance-shortening effect
dominates the congestion effect in our sample of Chinese cities.
This result differs from some earlier studies (Izraeli & McCarthy,
1985; Gordon, Kumar, & Richardson 1989a) but concurs with
several more recent studies (Schwanen, 2002; Schwanen et al.,
2004; Levinson & Kumar, 1997; Zhao et al., 2011; Zhao, 2013;
Yang et al., 2012; Grunfelder & Nielsen, 2012). Furthermore, it is
interesting to observe that the estimated density elasticity is
slightly larger in magnitude than the population size elasticity.
This seems to suggest that at the margin, commute duration will
remain the same, or even be slightly reduced, if the Chinese cities
grow simply by in-lling the existing built area. As expected,
jobshousing dissimilarity positively correlates with commute
duration (statistically signicant in all models except in model 3,
in which it is near signicant). Results also show that polycentricity negatively correlates with commute time, suggesting that
polycentric distribution of urban employment is likely to reduce
commute time in Chinese cities. This nding is robust to alternative measures of polycentricity at the urban district level in all
models except model 4, which is the only polycentricity measure
depending on the size of urban area. Our nding is also consistent with previous ndings in other countries such as Giuliano
and Small (1993), Levinson and Kumar (1994), Gordon et al.
(1989a), and Sultana (2002). Overall, city size and spatial structure characteristics all matter for average commute duration.
There are also interesting ndings related to the control variables. Road area per urban employee negatively associates with
6. Conclusion
For the rapidly urbanizing and motorizing Chinese cities, it is
important to identify policy alternatives that reduce the cost of
travel. Based upon existing theories and empirical evidence
from cities in the United States and Europe, this study quanties the impact of urban spatial structure on average commute
duration using data from 164 Chinese cities. After controlling
for urban economic, infrastructure, and sociodemographic
characteristics, results suggest that average commute duration
increases with city size and the degree of jobshousing separation, while decreases with average population density and the
degree of employment polycentricity. These ndings are unambiguous and robust to alternative measures of polycentricity
and additional controlling variables. Compared to the previous
American and European studies, our ndings are consistent
with regard to the effects of city size and jobshousing balance,
while contribute to the knowledge and debate on the effects of
density and polycentricity. As perhaps the earliest study on a
large sample of cities in China, this study has important policy
implications for urban planners and policy makers who want
to improve urban productivity, environment, and quality of
life. Specically, compact, mixed-use, and polycentric spatial
development may ease the commute pain during a period of
rapid urban expansion in China without unduly burdening cities and the environment with road and transit infrastructure
investment and energy consumption.
As one of the rst to quantify the spatial structure of a large
set of Chinese cities and link it to city-level travel time statistics
estimated from a newly available national dataset of urban
households, this study relies on a relatively simple statistical
model as most previous studies did. Results from such a
reduced-form model have to be cautiously interpreted, especially with regard to the variables that are likely endogeneous.
In addition, the use of urban districts as the spatial unit to calculate the jobshousing balance and employment polycentricity
measures would ideally be complemented by calculations based
on ner and more equalized spatial units if data are available.
Future research can benet from compiling street-ofce (Jiedao) or postal-code level employment and housing data and
statistical models with more structural relationship among the
variables.
643
Funding
We thank the National Natural Science Foundation of China
(No.41471139), the Shanghai Social Science Foundation (No.
2014BCK003), the Ministry of Education of China Key Research Projects
in Social and Humanities Program (No. 11JJDZH004) and the UCLA
Ziman Center for Real Estate through its faculty research grant. Opinions,
ndings, and errors in this article are those of the authors.
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