Rachel Martin

Period 4
Crystal Ball Essay

Election Prediction Sheet

Due: Wednesday, November 2, 2016 / Thursday, November 3, 2016

State Presidential Election Prediction: Moosylvania 694,458

Copy and paste the table if you have multiple states
State, District Florida 17-22

Candidate (Party) Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Gary Johnson

Popular Vote % 49.57% 44.62% 3.81%

Popular Vote Count 468,842 438,371 52,652

Congressional Election Predictions

Copy and paste as many tables as you need
State, District Florida, District 17
Candidate (Party) April Freeman (D) Thomas Rooney (R) John Sawyer III

Popular Vote % 39.74% 58.46% 1.8%

Popular Vote 297,115 437,075 134,576
Count

State, District Florida, District 18

Candidate (Party) Randy Perkins (D) Brian Mast(R) Carla Spalding

Popular Vote % 53.87% 43.52% 2.61%

Popular Vote 402,962 325,541 193,235
Count

State, District Florida, District 19

Candidate (Party) Robert Neeld (D) Francis Rooney (R) David Byron

Popular Vote % 52.06% 47.62% .32%

Popular Vote 403,124 368,743 2477
Count

State, District Florida, District 20

Candidate (Party) Alcee Hastings (D) Gary Stein(R)

Popular Vote % 62.8% 37.2%

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Crystal Ball Essay

Popular Vote 482,157 285,608

State, District Florida, District 21

Candidate (Party) Lois Frankel(D) Paul Spain (R) Michael Trout

Popular Vote % 51.34% 47.12% 1.54%

Popular Vote 389,255 357,260 11,676
Count

State, District Florida, District 22

Candidate (Party) Ted Deutch (D) Andrea Leigh
McGee(R)

Popular Vote % 54.72% 42.72% 2.56%

Popular Vote 399,621 311,985 18,695
Count
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Period 4
Crystal Ball Essay

Introduction

The 2016 presidential election has been the most unusual election the United States has ever seen.

With Donald Trump and his outlandish views and Hillary Clinton, the first ever female presidential

nominee, professional pollers could not have been more confused and baffled. Florida, one of the largest

swing states, is critical in this election for its large number of electoral votes. Districts 17-22 have a

variety of people with beliefs that contribute differently to this election. Ive listed predictions about my

state and districts below based on previous knowledge of demographics and calculations that have led me

to specific data points. To calculate my district predictions I added percentages from two critical

demographics to the percentage that that demographic voted last year. I predicted that the elderly and

hispanics will vote more this year because of different aspects of each candidate.

Demographic Factor Influence

Two demographics that will have an impact on the Presidential and congressional elections in

Florida, districts 17-22, are the elderly and hispanics. Florida is known for attracting retired citizens and

districts 17-22 clearly show this trend. In all six districts the highest percentages of age are from 45 and

up ("My Congressional District"). Older citizens are more likely to vote and participate in politics. Older

citizens are also more likely to have more conservative view points than other age brackets. This tendency

is critical for this presidential election because while Donald Trump is the Republican candidate, he

doesnt embody the conservative opinions that a lot of republicans agree with, such as social security and

trade ("Here Are the Places Where Donald Trump and the Republican Party Disagree"). Trump might not

win the vote of these older republicans but the elderly are still more likely to participate in politics and

will probably still vote republican in higher numbers for congressional elections because there arent as

many unusual candidates, ticket splitting their votes. There is a very large number of Hispanics
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Crystal Ball Essay
throughout Florida, specifically in districts 17-22 ("My Congressional District"). Trump has repeatedly

talked about how he is against immigration into the United States from southern american countries. This

attitude will push hispanics to come out and vote against Trump, whether it be for Clinton or a third party

candidate. Minorities tend to vote and participate at lower rates and so Hispanics will probably vote at the

same rate that they have previously for congressional elections in Florida.

Issue Influence

Two issues that are important in Florida, districts 17-22, are health care and immigration because,

as we already know, districts 17-22 have lots of elderly and hispanics.

Health care is a critical issue for the lives of the elderly and will affect the way the elderly in

these districts will vote. Health care provides outpatient care, trips to the emergency room, treatment in

the hospital for inpatient care, mental health and substance use disorder services, prescription drugs, lab

tests ("Whats Covered in the Health Insurance Marketplace"). With the growing of age, these services

can be extremely pertinent for those who require such treatment. Trump would like to broaden

healthcare access, make healthcare more affordable and improve the quality of the care available to all

Americans ("Health Care Reform to Make America Great Again"). This means making everyone pay for

health care without any intervention from the government, but improving the quality and accessibility of

health care. If the elderly in Florida, districts 17-22, do not agree with what Trump is saying, they will

vote for him less. Clinton would like to bring down healthcare costs for families, ease burdens on small

businesses, make sure consumers have the choices they deserve . . . deal with the skyrocketing

out-of-pocket health costs, and particularly runaway prescription drug prices ("Health Care"). This

means making healthcare more affordable through government funded programs. If the elderly in Florida,

districts 17-22, are against this way of paying for their health care, fewer elderly will vote for Clinton.

The same trends can be said for congressional elections, such as the race for congress in district 18. Brian
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Crystal Ball Essay
Mast, the republican retiree running for congress believes Health care in America would be best

improved by allowing small businesses and voluntary associations to join together to get the same

insurance discounts as large corporations ("Brian Mast"). Randy Perkins, the democrat running for

congress would like to protect the promises we have made to our seniors and fight against anything that

threatens Social Security and Medicare ("Issues"). If the elderly in Florida, districts 17-22, agree more

with one of these men on the topic of health care, he will get more votes from the elderly.

Immigration is an issue that will have a huge impact on the presidential and congressional

elections because Hispanics make up the majority of minorities in Florida, districts 17-19 and 21-22 ("My

Congressional District"). As of 2013, 19.4% of Floridas population is foreign born and the three main

countries these immigrants come from are Cuba, Haiti and Colombia ("Florida"). Whether the hispanics

in these districts are immigrants themselves or are the third generation of a family of immigrants,

immigration greatly affects this demographic and will change the way they vote for presidential and

congressional elections. Trump would like to Begin working on an impenetrable physical wall on the

southern border, on day one (and wants) anyone who illegally crosses the border be detained until they

are removed out of our country. Hispanics who have family members that are not in the US legally will

not vote for a man who will kick them out of our country. Clinton will work to fix our broken

immigration system and stay true to our fundamental American values: that we are a nation of

immigrants, and we treat those who come to our country with dignity and respectand that we embrace

immigrants, not denigrate them ("Immigration Reform"). Hispanics with family members in the US who

are trying to become will vote for Clinton. The same trends will be seen with congressional elections.

Mast supports requiring immigrants who are unlawfully present to return to their country of origin before

they are eligible for citizenship ("Brian Mast's Issue Positions). Perkins has very similar views and

therefore, hispanics in district 18 probably wont vote for either candidate because neither them support

immigration.
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Crystal Ball Essay

Voter Turnout

Two demographics that will vote differently than they have have in the past are the elderly and

hispanics. Because Clinton is slightly more right than Obama and the elderly tend to have more

conservative view points, they will vote more during this election. In the 2012 election, around 70% of

people over 60 years old voted ("Voter Turnout Demographics") but, since Florida has a higher

percentage of elderly and I was also accounting for people between 45-60, I estimated that this year 3%

more elderly would vote. I then found 3% of Floridas elderly population that had voted and added that to

the original number of elderly that voted in 2012. I did the same process for hispanic voters. In the 2012

election, around 42% of hispanics voted ("Voter Turnout Demographics"). Since Floridas largest

minority population is Hispanic and Trump is so openly against immigration, I estimated that 10% more

hispanics are going to vote in this upcoming presidential election. I found 42% of the hispanic population

of my districts combined, and then found 10% of that number and added it to the 42% that had actually

voted. I predict that Florida, districts 17,19 and 21 will vote Trump because they have high numbers of

white and uneducated people and they voted strongly republican in past elections. I predict that Florida,

districts 18, 20 and 22, will vote for Clinton because they higher numbers of urbanization, education and

income. As a whole, my classmates and I predict that Florida will vote Trump by at least 100,000 popular

votes.

Comparison
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Crystal Ball Essay
Two districts that are different in some aspects and similar in others between Florida, districts

17-22, are district 17 and district 20. District 17 has 82.59% white, 52.17% have a high school diploma

or less and the lowest percentage of urbanization throughout all six districts ("My Congressional

District). District 20 has 55.17% African American, 50.96% have a high school diploma or less and the

second highest urbanization ("My Congressional District"). The differences between these two districts is

the race and urbanization data. District 17 is more conservative because whites and rural people tend to be

a part of the ideology. District 20 is more liberal because African Americans and urban people tend to be

a part of that ideology. The two districts, however, do have one similarity and that is the lowest rates of

education. For district 17 this trend can be credited to a certain lifestyle. In more rural areas, there tends to

be more family owned and run farms so not a lot of people go to college or even complete high school. In

district 20, the low levels of education can be attributed to systematic racism. In a district where the

majority of citizens are a minority that is largely discriminated against in most aspects of our society, a

lower level of education for this district is no surprise. Because of the demographics of these two districts,

it can be predicted that district 17 will vote for Trump and district 20 will vote for Clinton.

Conclusion

Whatever happens on Tuesday, November 8 will change the way our country is run for the next

four years. Demographics such as age, race, income and education are extremely helpful clues for

predicting whats to come. Swing states, like Florida, are one of the hardest states to predict results for but

at least now my classmates and I can anticipate for whats going to happen in the next week.

Works Cited

"Brian Mast's Issue Positions." VoteSmart.org, votesmart.org/candidate/political-courage-test/

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Crystal Ball Essay
brian-mast.
"Brian Mast." My Palm Beach Post, apps.mypalmbeachpost.com/kycp2016/candidate/brian-mast.

"Florida." Map the Impact of Immigration across the Nation, www.maptheimpact.org/state/florida.

"Health Care." HillaryClinton.com, www.hillaryclinton.com/issues/health-care.

"Health care Reform to Make America Great Again." DonaldJTrump.com,

www.donaldjtrump.com/positions/healthcare-reform.

"Here Are the Places Where Donald Trump and the Republican Party Disagree." Los Angeles Times,
www.latimes.com/politics.

"Immigration." DonaldJTrump.com, www.donaldjtrump.com/policies/immigration.

"Immigration Reform." HillaryClinton.com, www.hillaryclinton.com/issues/immigration-reform.

"Issues." Randy Perkins for Congress, www.randyperkinsforcongress.com/issues-extended.

"My Congressional District." United States Census Bureau, www.census.gov/mycd.

"Randy Perkins." Numbers USA, www.numbersusa.com/candidate-comparison/candidate/2016/house/

Randy-perkins.

"Voter Turnout Demographics." United States Election Project, www.electproject.org/home/

voter-turnout/demographics.

"Whats Covered in the Health Insurance Marketplace." HealthCare.gov, www.healthcare.gov/blog/

10-health-care-benefits-covered-in-the-health-insurance-marketplace.

Crystal Ball Rubric

Directions: Attach this to the back of your essay, after your Works Cited page.
Introduction and Introduction describes strategy for making predictions.
Conclusion Conclusion describes plausible implications of predictions. _____/5
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Period 4
Crystal Ball Essay

CLEAR AND LOGICAL CLAIMS made about impact of 2

demographic factors on Presidential election and the
Congressional elections (may be different)
Demographic
Logical CONNECTIONS DRAWN EXPLICITLY between
Factor Influence
all claims and supporting evidence.
THOROUGH ANALYSIS of impact of demographic factors
on Presidential AND Congressional elections _____/10
DESCRIBES CLEARLY why TWO (2) issues are important
in districts
The stances of congressional or presidential candidates on
BOTH issues identified accurately.
Issue Influence Analysis of the impact of each stance on election supported
by RELEVANT and SALIENT evidence.
EXPLICITLY connects BOTH issues to their impacts on
presidential race and congressional races.
BOTH data and quotes used effectively. _____/10
ACCURATELY describes TWO (2) historical trends in
turnout for two distinct demographic groups.
Connection between turnout rates and election results based
on reasoning CLEARLY INFORMED by ACCURATE
Voter Turnout understanding of voting tendencies of each demographic
group.
Prediction of 2016 election impact logically S YNTHESIZES
KNOWLEDGE of demographic changes and relative
stances of candidates, polling, or media. _____/10
A demographic difference between two districts is
Comparison
CLEARLY identified, described ACCURATELY, and an
(This may or may
impact of this difference is LOGICALLY inferred.
not be incorporated
Down-ballot impact of presidential race is REASONABLY
into another
ASSESSED based on demographics, issue analysis or past
section)
elections. _____/5
ALL ideas that are not the student's own are followed by a
parenthetical citation of the title or author.
BOTH demographic data and media sources are used
Works Cited &
multiple times.
Clarity
ALL works cited, in correct MLA format, at the end are
credible and correspond to all the sources cited in student's
response. _____/5

Total _____/45